2005 in Review - Catchers
Mon, Oct 17, 2005
by Geoff Young
So I’m wearing my Ducksnorts T-shirt the other day and someone actually says, “Okay, I’ll bite. What’s a ducksnort?” I explain, and he is the better for it.
Ducksnorts. Educating the world, one person at a time. Whether they like it or not.
Anyway. We’re talking about catchers today.
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB/PA | ISO | SEC | RC/27 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres catchers | .288 | .332 | .433 | .058 | .145 | .213 | 4.82 |
| MLB rank | 3 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 16 | 16 | 7 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, top 10; yellow, middle 10; red, bottom 10. |
|||||||
Ramon Hernandez and Miguel Olivo saw the bulk of the playing time, with Robert Fick, Miguel Ojeda, David Ross, and Phil Nevin also strapping on the tools of ignorance at times. For the most part, Padres catchers hit pretty well relative to the big-league average in 2005.
We’ll look at Hernandez and Olivo in greater detail below. Fick and Nevin will be examined with the first basemen, while Ojeda and Ross probably don’t merit discussion.
Ramon Hernandez
Summary
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB/PA | ISO | XBH/H | RC/27 | OPS+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | .276 | .341 | .477 | .081 | .201 | .387 | 5.54 | 116 |
| 2005 | .290 | .322 | .450 | .046 | .160 | .308 | 5.21 | 109 |
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend. |
||||||||
| FPct | CS% | SBA/9 | Inn/PB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernandez | .988 | .257 | .782 | 134.3 |
| MLB average | .992 | .294 | .756 | 154.0 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, above average; red, below average. |
||||
Hernandez improved his batting average in 2005, but every other aspect of his offensive game deteriorated to various degrees. Part of this was due, no doubt, to injuries. How much is anyone’s guess. Defensive metrics for catchers are a little iffy, so don’t put too much stock into the numbers above. Hernandez remains a solid contributor behind the plate, but comes with risk and a presumably high price tag.
Expectations
From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:
Last year [2004] Hernandez displayed the batting eye of two years ago and improved on the power numbers of 2003. The only negative was that he played in just 111 games, due in large part to an injury sustained while trying to block home plate. Assuming Hernandez stays healthy, look for more of the same from him both at and behind the dish.
Positives
- Good offense from a premium position. Hit especially well down the stretch (.319/.355/.517 post-ASB), after returning from DL.
- Pitchers apparently like working with him, although his CERA was nothing special (4.04, vs 4.15 for entire team). Then again, who knows what value lies in CERA.
Negatives
- Spent two separate stints on the DL due to wrist injury. Played in just 99 games.
- Only adequate on defense. Threw out just 25.7% of would-be base stealers, roughly in the bottom third among catchers. Doesn’t block plate well, as we had heard from his days with the A’s and confirmed in 2004.
Outlook
Hernandez is a free agent. Thanks to the Red Sox shelling out big bucks for Jason Varitek a year ago, Hernandez likely will do well for himself in the open market. At the end of spring training, before his injuries, I speculated that he would get around $34 million for 4 years. Hernandez’ second-half offensive surge should offset most concerns about the wrist, so that estimate still seems reasonable to me.
I didn’t like the idea of 4 years for a 30-year-old catcher in March, and I don’t much care for it now. Because you never know when a catcher’s decline phase will begin. But as Keith Woolner concluded in his 2000 study:
Perhaps we should abandon the idea of catchers developing more slowly, and recognize that the physical demands of the position will tend to reduce both the length of their peaks and the length of their careers.
Also, the track record going forward of Hernandez’ most similar batters through age 29 isn’t real promising. The only guys from the past 20 years who did anything were Terry Kennedy and Tony Pena, and neither of them had much success late in their careers.
Those seem like pretty compelling reasons for a team with the Padres’ resources not to get in a bidding war for Hernandez’ services. The Mets are rumored to be interested in Hernandez (although they also are looking at the Angels’ Bengie Molina). Regardless, it’s very unlikely that Hernandez will be playing his home games in San Diego next season.
Miguel Olivo
Summary
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB/PA | ISO | XBH/H | RC/27 | OPS+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | .233 | .286 | .439 | .061 | .206 | .457 | 4.06 | 86 |
| 2005 | .217 | .246 | .367 | .028 | .150 | .362 | 3.05 | 63 |
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend. |
||||||||
| FPct | CS% | SBA/9 | Inn/PB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivo | .983 | .304 | .600 | 98.6 |
| MLB average | .992 | .294 | .756 | 154.0 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, above average; red, below average. |
||||
The numbers for Olivo include his time in Seattle, where he contributed almost nothing (an alarming .151/.172/.276 in 152 AB). With the Padres he hit .304/.341/.487 in 115 AB and did a terrific job of shutting down the running game (just .470 SBA per 9 innings; not quite Yadier Molina territory, but slightly ahead of guys like Brad Ausmus and Joe Mauer).
Expectations
None. Olivo began the season as a member of the Seattle Mariners. He came over in a deal for the disappointing Miguel Ojeda, and the assumption was that two teams were swapping lousy backup catchers.
Positives
- Cost almost nothing (Ojeda and a minor-league reliever).
- Good athlete who runs well and has some pop in his bat.
- Young enough (turns 27 next July) that his second-half improvement could be legitimate.
Negatives
- Atrocious strike-zone judgment. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2005 was an even 10:1, and it’s right around 5:1 for his career.
- Head isn’t always in game (he cost the Pads a key game when he forgot how many outs there were and flipped a ball into the dugout against the Rockies).
- Only previous offensive success came with the White Sox in the first half of 2004, so we can’t be sure if his strong finish this year represents a turnaround or a small-sample fluke.
Outlook
Olivo is eligible for arbitration. He made $400k last year. Based on his career numbers, he shouldn’t command a huge jump in 2006. Based on what he showed the Padres in the second half of the season, he’s probably worth signing to a 1- or 2-year deal.
At worst, Olivo makes a good stopgap until George Kottaras is ready. At best, Olivo learns some plate discipline and becomes a solid big-league backstop in his own right. A lot more upside than downside here. Olivo has to be the early favorite for the starting job next year.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 17, 2005 at 7:48 am
Do they have a stat for opportunities to not block the plate, twice?
But he has excellent hair.
Olivo is the guy.
October 17, 2005 at 8:45 am
Geoff,
In your first rainbow chart at the top, you have a stat titled SEC. That’s a new one on me. What is it?
Also, is a Fick/Olivo platoon possible for next year? I know Fick’s D isn’t the strongest but if those two guys could post this year’s numbers next season, that’d be a pretty good return on investment at catcher.
October 17, 2005 at 9:15 am
Sorry, Brian. SEC is Secondary Average. I’m not sure, but I think Bill James introduced it. Here’s more on the stat:
http://www.athomeplate.com/secondary.shtml
As for Fick, I wouldn’t mind seeing him get some time behind the dish again next year but probably not in a straight platoon. As you mention, his defense isn’t great, and also his numbers were dragged down a bit when he had to get back there every day before Olivo joined the club.
October 17, 2005 at 9:57 am
Whatever happend to Nick Trezniack(sp)?
October 17, 2005 at 11:33 am
Trzesniak (I always spell it wrong, too) split 2005 between Mobile and Portland for an overall line of .282/.346/.413:
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....?id=431161
He turns 25 in November, so the clock is ticking.
October 17, 2005 at 12:01 pm
Very interesting. From the Padres’ side, I’ve heard no interest in resigning Hernandez. I’ll agree that if he’s looking for 4 years, it’s a wise path to take, especially with his injury tendencies.
And I was going to buy one of those Ducksnorts shirts, but if complete strangers are going to talk to me because of it, I think I’ll pass. ;)~
October 17, 2005 at 1:26 pm
I agree — no four year contracts for catchers. Unless your name is Varitek. But even he wore down at the end of 2005.
I hope that Olivo is the answer, for a couple of years, at least. He’s got great enthusiasm, and seems solid defensively, but the good last 2 months hasn’t convinced me totally. The Pads don’t really have too many other options if they don’t re-sign Hernandez, though.
Realistically, I wouldn’t be looking for huge things out of him in ‘06. I mean, if the guy hits .250, plays good defense, drives in 60 runs, and doesn’t forget how many outs there are, I’ll be satisfied.
Then again, if he doesn’t pan out, we can always trade him back to Seattle, along with every other crappy catcher we’ve had (B. Davis, W..Gonzalez, M. Ojeda).
I had heard rumors about signing Ausmus, but that depends on whether Clemens decides to come back. The Rocket has gone on record saying that he will only pitch to Ausmus.
October 17, 2005 at 2:15 pm
Reason that KT maybe not going to Dbacks:
“The D-Backs’ job isn’t all that appealing. The team wants its payroll to be near $60 million next season, but five players–3B Troy Glaus, OFs Luis Gonzalez and Shawn Green and RHPs Javier Vazquez and Russ Ortiz–will make a combined $48.25 million.”
Thanks, Geoff for Nick’s info. I think we should try him on for backup and get some value out of him. No catcher is worth a 4-year contract. Not Varitek, not Pudge, not Ramon. Look at how the Piazza signing is handcuffing the Mets. Or the Jason Kendall’s contract is screwing up the Pirates.
Can we also get rid of Magadan? The complain I’ve always had about him is despite the situation, he’ll take a walk over driving in runs. Even Brian Giles (a better hitter) will expand the zone slightly depending on the situation. I think the opposing pitchers are pitching around Giles because nobody else was going to hit/hit the ball far. Can we perhaps get somebody like Rod Carew to be out hitting coach?
October 17, 2005 at 2:40 pm
I’d be fine with Olivo and a solid veteran catcher sharing the job. I’d rather pay a million bukcs for two guys who can get the job done defensively than overpay $10 million a year for 4 years. It just seems like there are better uses for that money, like a real power hitter or front line starting pitcher.
If the Padres do nothing else but fire Magadan I’d be happy. Maybe get a guy who can teach the hitters how to pull the ball. What about Jack Clark, is he available? Is he even a good coach? If Burroughs could learn to pull the ball like Clark used to he’d get an extra 10 homers a year into the porch.
October 17, 2005 at 4:13 pm
Isn’t Jack Clark the person that supposedly hung T Gwynn in effigy?
Actually, isn’t Rob Deer still coaching in the Pads’ system? I’ve heard good things about him as a hitting coach. He’s probably of the “Here’s what I did . . . do NOT do what I did” school of hitting.
October 17, 2005 at 4:32 pm
I think they should look at Paul Bako as a possible free agent acquisition.
October 17, 2005 at 5:06 pm
Nick: You took the words right out of my mouth regarding Deer. I think he’s someone the Padres should seriously consider if they do decide to replace Magadan. (I’m still on the fence about whether or not they should replace Mags - not sure how much of this can be pinned on him.)
Richard: Paul Bako?
On a non-Padres note, did anyone catch this about Mazzone possibly talking to the Yankees?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....9705204233
Interesting…
October 17, 2005 at 10:11 pm
Geoff, you are correct in remembering James as the creator of Secondary Average. It encompasses all a hitter does OTHER than hit singles.
A nice, under-utilized tool. Easy to understand in today’s alphabet-soup world of sabermetrics, too.
October 17, 2005 at 10:16 pm
Nick, Rob Deer actually did EXACTLY what you’d want a hitter to do, and was an extremely effective hitter in his best seasons, despite his lack of natural ability.
A lineup of nine Rob Deer’s (or 8 Deer’s and a pitcher) in his prime would put up some serious runs. If somebody cares to run the numbers, I’d bet it’d be something like 1000 runs in a neutral park in today’s climate.
October 18, 2005 at 5:02 am
I’m not sure what you mean by Deer doing exactly what you want a hitter to do. My point was that a lot of times guys who were not so great ability-wise (ex: Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa, Bochy) are good coaches. Probably because they work a little harder, study a little more, etc.
Rob Deer created runs when he made contact, but his specialty was not making contact. He struck out about 1,400 times in 3,880 at bats.
October 18, 2005 at 6:40 am
Nick, I think Lance is referring to Deer’s ability to get on base and hit for power. Despite a career .220 BA, he had a 109 OPS+. Contrast that with someone like Willie McGee, who had a career .295 BA but just a 100 OPS+.
October 18, 2005 at 7:44 am
“He struck out about 1,400 times in 3,880 at bats.”
So?
The main difference between a strikeout and any other out is that it is impossible to ground into a double play while striking out.
October 18, 2005 at 8:41 am
Well, the other thing that you can say about a strikeout is that it’s unproductive 100% of the time. Whereas, if you make contact, there’s a chance that you can “produce” something, even if the end result is an out.
Heck, even a DP can drive in a run.
Geoff: I see the point about the OPS. No problem with that at all.
He probably doesn’t coach guys to strike out while swinging for the fences. I’d imagine that he tries to get guys to be selective.
Of course, I could be completely wrong about that — never seen him coach.
October 18, 2005 at 11:56 am
Back to catchers: The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of Trzesniak as Olivo’s backup next year, with Fick available in emergency. Trzesniak probably won’t hit enough to be a starter (although he could maybe be a Jason LaRue type) but if his defense is adequate, why not get him in there? I’d like to see the Padres be more aggressive in promoting from within, even if it’s at the fringes (Breslow, Hensley, etc.). That’s a real good way to keep costs to a minimum (as is signing guys nobody else wants but who have value - Hammond, Seanez, EY, Fick).
October 18, 2005 at 12:35 pm
I’m 100% with you Geoff. The Padres aren’t going to be able to compete by signing big time free agents. They’re going to have to get much better at developing from within.
October 18, 2005 at 2:58 pm
Nick, check out Cyril Morong’s “Productive Outs Are Not Productive”: http://www.geocities.com/cyril.....t/PROD.htm
October 18, 2005 at 3:00 pm
From http://mattwelch.com/:
DePodesta: We Have Metrics for Catchers’ ERA, and That’s Largely Why We Signed Bako: For the 98% of you who don’t know what that sentence means, these aren’t the droids you were looking for.
For the rest of you, I met the Dodgers’ GM at a Society of Professional Journalists function the other night. I missed much of his talk, due to drinking by the pool (scroll down), but he brought up his “proprietary defensive metrics,” and so I asked him about what they said about Jeff Kent. He said that they showed Kent to be basically “neutral.”
Interestingly, he then volunteered that these same metrics singled out Paul Bako as being a particularly effective defensive catcher, especially in his handling of pitching staffs. Why is that interesting? Because catchers’ ERA is one of the most disputed & hard-to-pinpoint concepts left in baseball analysis. Thought I should share, etc.
October 18, 2005 at 3:02 pm
Bako’s not much of a hitter, though, and he would likely come cheap. (Career EQA of .226)
October 18, 2005 at 4:04 pm
Thanks, Richard. Interesting stuff on Bako. Wasn’t he Maddux’s personal catcher for a while in Atlanta? Not a bad idea, esp. for the likely cost.
October 18, 2005 at 4:35 pm
He was with Atlanta from 2000 to 2001. Perhaps he was Maddux’s personal catcher, but I have no idea.
October 18, 2005 at 4:50 pm
Man, I love the Internet. Bako catching Maddux:
2000: 14 of GM’s 35 starts (Bako only played 24 games for Atl this year)
2001: 34 of 34 starts
http://members.tripod.com/bb_c.....scatch.htm
He also was a teammate of Maddux in 2004 with the Cubs. Don’t have the game-by-game breakdown. That will help the ol’ CERA, though, that’s for sure.
October 19, 2005 at 5:08 am
Interesting link, Richard. Good information — thanks.
I guess there are all types of ways to dissect things. My point is that nothing good comes of a strikeout — if you make contact, at least there’s a chance that something good might happen — a hit, reaching on an error, whatever. I admit — this is probably a pretty simplistic argument. But I’m not sure I’d want a guy that has an .800 OPS and strikes out 150+ times. That’s like giving away 150 ABs.
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