Notes from the AFL
Wed, Nov 9, 2005
by Geoff Young
I had planned to take copious notes during my trip to the AFL. Unfortunately, I spent most of the time hopped up on flu medicine and found it hard to concentrate. But I am pretty good at remembering esoterica so I think we should be okay.
With the caveat that I saw most of these guys just once, here are some players who made an impression:
- Oakland’s Daric Barton has a great approach at the plate. Reminds me a little of Brian Giles in the way he spits on anything that misses even by just a little. First at-bat I saw of his, he fell behind 0-2, then started taking pitches and fouling them off before eventually being retired. One scout at the symposium mentioned that Barton tends to hit the ball with a lot of topspin so the homers aren’t likely to come. Good looking hitter, though. Stiff at first base, probably more of a DH type.
- The Padres’ Mike Johnson had some excellent at-bats the game I saw him. He put one out to center, and knocked another off the wall in the deepest part of the park. Yes, he’s old. No, he’s probably not a future big-league regular. But the guy can hit. I also saw southpaw Rusty Tucker work an inning, but it wasn’t enough to get a good feel for where he’s at these days. George Kottaras hit seeds as usual.
- The Yankees’ Eric Duncan is a big kid with a big swing. He looked okay but not as good as I’d expected. Maybe I was unduly influenced by what a scout said, but the ball didn’t seem to fly off his bat. Baseball America’s Jack Magruder reports on Duncan’s progress in the AFL.
- After seeing Florida’s Reggie Abercrombie, I understand now why scouts go nuts over him. The kid is big, strong, and very fast. I’m sure they look at him and think Mike Cameron. Watching him round the bases on a stand-up triple was something special. But obviously he’s got a lot of holes in his game.
- The Mets’ Lastings Milledge probably was the guy who impressed me most out in Arizona. I expected the athleticism and speed. I did not expect him to hit everything so hard. The ball really jumps off his bat. Even his foul balls made noise. He hit a shot to left that hooked foul, but several of us were a little startled to see how far away from home plate it landed. I think we weren’t looking for him to drive the ball like that on such a consistent basis. Baseball America’s Jack Magruder has more on Milledge’s stint in the AFL.
- Pittsburgh’s Brad Eldred is another big kid with a big swing. He will hit a mistake a long way.
- Anaheim’s Jered Weaver looks a lot like his older brother, Jeff. Like his brother, Jered features a delivery that will cause problems for right-handers but allow lefties to get a good look at his stuff, which isn’t as good as Jeff’s. Weaver looked okay and he’s certainly a future big-leaguer, but I’m not losing any sleep over the Padres not drafting him. Cesar Carrillo looks better to me. Baseball America’s Chris Kline takes a closer look at Weaver.
- Anaheim’s Kendry Morales is a big, strong kid with a nice swing. He wasn’t as disciplined as I’d expected, often taking defensive swings when he was ahead in the count. He sure looks like he should be able to mash, though, so maybe I caught him on a bad day.
- Anaheim’s Brandon Wood broke Tagg Bozied’s AFL homer record. We saw him tie it. He has tremendous power and plays a passable shortstop. Most of the experts I talked to at the symposium said he, and not Stephen Drew, was the class of the AFL. They also expected him to move up the organizational ladder very quickly. Baseball America’s Jack Magruder offers his thoughts on Wood.
- I caught my first glimpse of the Padres’ Corey Smith. He’s very thick, built like a fire hydrant. Smith knocked a homer when I saw him and looks like he has the strength to hit it out anywhere. He was at DH so I have no idea how well he can handle the hot corner. Looks like he should be able to make it at least as a right-handed bat off someone’s bench.
- The Cubs’ Eric Patterson surprised me. He’s built along the lines of his brother, Corey, but has a more refined approach at the plate than I’d expected. Patterson laid off some pretty tough pitches and seemed to be willing to use the entire field. He didn’t overwhelm me, but the kid looks like he can play a little.
Also, the new stadium in Surprise is beautiful. Reminds me a little of the new park in Stockton, which is like a smaller version of Sacramento’s Raley Field. Some folks complain about cookie cutter ballparks, but I say if this is the new cookie, keep cutting.
On Saturday we trekked down to Tucson for the UCLA-Arizona football game. I hadn’t been to a Division I football game in over 20 years. Judging from the outcome, I doubt the Bruins want me ever attending again. Anyway, here’s a shot of the crowd emptying onto the field after the home team won, 52-14.
Other Stuff
- 2005 Team Salaries and Wins in Major League Baseball (PodcastFMSports.com). Among playoff teams, only the White Sox spent less on salary per regular season win in 2005.
- Padres’ Prospect Journal: Sean Thompson (Scout.com). Catch up with the young southpaw as he waits for spring training like the rest of us.
- What Went Wrong in the Playoffs (NL Edition) (Baseball Analysts). In case you missed it, I made a guest appearance over at Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith’s excellent site.
That’s all for now. We’ll have more trade reaction on Friday, then a review of third base next week.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
November 9, 2005 at 6:02 am
Great stuff from the AFL, Geoff. I can’t wait to see Kottaras in a Padres uniform.
From the rumor mill, Krasovic’s article today in the U-T, in the “notes” section, it seems the Sox would want Burroughs and Roberts for Wells.
November 9, 2005 at 8:25 am
Nice reporting, Geoff. Hope you are doing much better now.
Do the Padres have Roberts under contract? I thought he was only signed for one year. I still don’t think the Padres need Wells in the rotation other than the fact he’s a lefty.
November 9, 2005 at 8:36 am
Roberts is signed for one more year.
What? You don’t want an out-of-shape ogre that spends 1 month per year on the DL?
November 9, 2005 at 9:04 am
PDXBeavers has journals from Jon Knott & Brian Sweeney, who are playing winter ball down in Venezuala … http://www.pdxbeavers.com/comm......php?id=75 … good stuff!
November 9, 2005 at 9:07 am
If Lastings Milledge ever makes it to the Show, he’ll go immediately to the All-Great Name team! (Van Lingle Mungo, Choo Choo Coleman, Woodie Held, etc.)
November 9, 2005 at 9:30 am
Regarding Morales, no, you didn’t get him on a bad day, just look at his K/BB ratio… little plate discipline, and the Angels aren’t the team to teach him any, either.
WRT Weaver, you’re exactly right. Look at his brother’s path and you’ve got a pretty good idea of what he’s going to be: early success with a ton of strikeouts, followed by decreasing K/9 rates as he goes up the ladder. Unless he can learn a sinker/split-fingered pitch, he’s going to get a lot of homers hit off him. The Angels were very prudent to wait him out and pay him only a $4M bonus.
My guess on B-Wood is the Angels will see him in 2007 and no sooner. He still has a lot of plate discipline issues, something that won’t get addressed in the hitters’ parks that litter the Angels’ minor leagues.
November 9, 2005 at 9:37 am
From NY Newsday:
The San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers have discussed a trade that would send former Yankee Alfonso Soriano and centerfielder Laynce Nix to San Diego for starting pitcher Adam Eaton and second baseman Mark Loretta. The Padres have also expressed interest in free agent Mike Piazza.
November 9, 2005 at 9:54 am
Thanks, Rob, for the reports on Morales and Weaver. Regarding Wood, there were some rumblings that he could be up with the big club as early as this year (and for more than just a cup of coffee).
Nick: I’d heard about Nix and Eaton, but not the Soriano/Loretta angle. The Jacque Jones talk is also starting to heat up:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
On another note that may or may not affect the Pads, Billy Wagner apparently is looking for 3/$30M:
http://www.shallowcenter.com/s.....e_dog.html
November 9, 2005 at 10:46 am
That Eaton/Soriano deal seems kind of strange. Why are the Padres looking to deal another starter? A Wells deal just plugs the B Law hole and you can’t realistically expect much out of him given his age and ailments. Maybe KT is looking at free agent pitchers?
Is Nix any good? I don’t know much about him but from his stats he doesn’t look like he has much plate discipline.
November 9, 2005 at 11:37 am
Eaton + Loretta for Nix + Soriano?
Strange, isn’t it?
Maybe that does mean Barfield would be with the big league next year. Probably Soriano to the Twins for Torii instead of Jones (whom my Twins friend said is no great shakes). Then, Wells is coming to SD?
I’m perplexed.
November 9, 2005 at 12:00 pm
I must say, I’m not enamored with J Jones. I know he’s from SD and everything, but he strikes out way too much.
Baseball America’s 2003 scouting report on Nix:
Laynce Nix, of
Age: 22. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 190..
Background: A second-team baseball All-American and a star quarterback in high school, Nix has continued to achieve success since spurning a baseball scholarship from Louisiana State. His Arizona Fall League campaign was cut short by a ligament injury in his right thumb.
Strengths: Many compare Nix to Brian Giles because of his compact, muscular build and power potential. Nix’ power has developed to the point that he has outstripped comparisons to Rusty Greer, though like Greer he has an excellent work ethic, a nice swing and a disciplined-yet-aggressive approach. He ranked third in the minor leagues in RBIs in 2002.
Weaknesses: While Nix played center field in 2002 and the Rangers have a need at the position, scouts see him as a corner outfielder. He’s an average runner and probably will slow down. The thick Nix must be careful that he doesn’t cost himself flexibility with his workouts.
Here’s a synopsis of his 2004 season, again from BA:
Nix, 24, hit .248-14-46 last year as the Rangers’ regular center fielder. He played in just 115 games due to a shoulder injury that cost him a month right before the all-star break.
When he returned he wasn’t the same player. Stiff because the shoulder was still bothering him, Nix hit just .218 after the break and averaged a strikeout every 3.23 at-bats.
I bet that G Fuson is the one that’s driving the Padres’ interest in him.
November 9, 2005 at 12:15 pm
anthony: Can you say rebuilding?
Seriously though, if the only reason the move is being made is to open up rotation spots for guys like Hensley and Stauffer, it means 2006 is being written off. Hopefully it would lead to a follow-on trade moving Soriano for another starter and putting Barfield at 2B. Just have to wait and see I suppose.
November 9, 2005 at 12:59 pm
I have no problem with rebuilding if they’re serious about it. I’d rather see a rotation with Hensley, Stauffer and maybe Carillo than Wells, Woody and Chan Ho, not only for the long term but for 2006.
Either commit to winning the division and make some big trades and spend money on free agents or commit to rebuilding. The one thing I’m afraid of is they don’t do either and just tread water, trying to sell tickets by signing Jones and maybe Piazza and bringing back Wells.
I’ve never seen a city so obsessed with acquiring natives to play for the home team. Is it just because so many major leaguers grew up here?
That description of Nix strikes me as a guy who’s injury prone. Muscular football player types usually play football for a reason.
November 9, 2005 at 4:33 pm
Twins have always struck me as “obsessed with acquiring natives to play for the home team” … for example, drafting Mauer ahead of Prior …
November 9, 2005 at 4:34 pm
Nice article by Lisa Winston in USA Today on Craig Breslow and another pitcher the Padres signed out of tryout camp:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports.....nors_x.htm
November 9, 2005 at 4:54 pm
Can someone with a BA subscription provide synopsis of this article about Matt Bush?
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....6bush.html
TIA …
November 9, 2005 at 5:20 pm
Wow, Geoff … that Lisa Winston USAT article was STUNNINGLY UPLIFTING! Seriously!
“The Padres are a great organization …” … that’s nice to read … as is …
“By the end of instructional league, Meek’s fastball was sitting at 94-95 mph and reaching 97, his slider was effective and he continued to show improvement with his changeup.”
:-)
November 10, 2005 at 4:58 am
In 92 ab’s, Kendry Morales had 13 so’s vs. 12 bb’s and an obp of .444. The numbers would suggest that he’s anything but an undisciplined hacker.
November 10, 2005 at 8:02 am
More on the Eaton-to-Texas front. In addition to Laynce Nix, catcher Gerald Laird and first baseman/San Diegan Adrian Gonzalez are other names mentioned:
http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcont.....f2083.html
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
November 10, 2005 at 9:56 am
From the Ranger side of the fans:
http://www.lonestarball.com/st.....commenttop
Interesting to read about Fuson-Laird-Boras thing.
Don’t the Padres not deal with Boras?
I heard Adrian Gonzales was good.
November 10, 2005 at 10:48 am
Interesting. My initial reaction was that none of the kids (with the possible exception of Gonzalez) we’d be receiving was all that great.
BTW, a couple of the guys at the AFL symposium mentioned Eaton as a potential breakout candidate. Of course, they offered the same reasons we’ve been offering for years, so who knows…
November 10, 2005 at 10:50 am
Also, isn’t Nady a Boras client? If memory serves, that’s part of the reason he slipped to the second round.
November 10, 2005 at 11:29 am
Nady is indeed a Boras client. Another reason he got a ML contract too.
I would think that any deal for Eaton would have to include Gonzalez and Baird. I am not that high on Nix. Seems like a poor-mans Mark Kotsay. Gonzalez is a former first rounder and could blossom with a chance to play every day. Anyone know anything about his defense?
November 10, 2005 at 12:27 pm
Re: Adrian Gonzalez’s defense:
From BA on Adrian Gonzalez. This is after 2003, when he was the top prospect in the Rangers’ organization:
Defensively, Gonzalez is a Gold Glover in the making. He has soft hands and demonstrates excellent footwork around the bag. He’s already adept at making plays to his backhand and aggressive in making plays with his strong, accurate arm on relays or throws across the diamond.
November 10, 2005 at 2:50 pm
That USA Today article is why I love the off season. Every team has a story like that about some young guy that’s turned it around or some veteran on a new workout regime or a pitcher with a new pitch. So much optimism. I bet even Kansas City has a story about a young slugger who had laser eye surgery and is a lock to hit 50 bombs next year.
November 10, 2005 at 3:04 pm
While losing Eaton would be another blow to our rotation, especially if we were to replace him with Astacio, I don’t think he is ever going to take that next step. It’s been three seasons now since his TJ, and I haven’t seen any real improvement. Although he pitched well before his finger injury last year, I don’t recall him being any better or worse than his past seasons. I think most people look at Eaton’s season last year and get carried away with his record before he got hurt, when in reality he’s the same pitcher he’s always been, a serviceable starter who teases you with his stuff.
If we can pry two good young hitters away from the Rangers in Laird and Gonzalez, then I say do it. I would then be content if we brought Wells back or go after someone like Matt Morris to fill Eaton’s hole, especially if we have money to spend because we failed to resign any of our big three FAs.
November 10, 2005 at 3:25 pm
Bruce, I would never describe Laird as a pretty good young hitter. Gonzalez seems superfluous. You’re right on Eaton, though. Trading him doesn’t cripple us, but I’d like to get more for him than Texas castoffs.
November 10, 2005 at 3:55 pm
I’m okay with moving Eaton as long as it means getting Hensley and Stauffer into the rotation. Clearing space to bring back Wells excites me a lot less.
November 10, 2005 at 3:59 pm
By the same token Tom, I don’t think you can call Gonzalez superfluous. Yeah the Pads seemingly have a lot of players that could play first and hold their own the plate, but the team seems down on Nady. Bozied struggled to come back from his knee injury last year, and P-Mac looks like he has a shot at being a contributor with the bat, but is nothing special in the field. Adrian Gonzalez was the #1 pick in the draft in 2000 and by all accounts is a plus fielder and hitter. While he has not posted great numbers in his stints with the Rangers, he had an outstanding season last year in AAA and could be the kind of young hitter that the Padres could aquire at an affordable cost because he is blocked at the ML level.
I don’t know why the Padres would be looking hard at a catcher when Kotteras is maybe a year or two away, but maybe they would have the intention of letting Laird and Olivo fight it out for 2006. For what it’s worth, I found it amusing that Baseball Prospectus has Miguel Olivo has Laird’s #1 comparable player going into last season. At least Laird had a good season in AAA too. So there could be potential with him. Another plus, is that he could prevent the Padres from signing Brad Ausmus.
Still I would rather see the team look to improving the outfield instead.
November 10, 2005 at 11:26 pm
Hey Geoff, can you give me an idea of how the O’s prospects in the AFL (Markakis, Loewen, Tripper Johnson, Brandon Fahey, and Val Majewski) are holding up if you get to see them? They play for Peoria.
November 11, 2005 at 6:53 am
The Padres deciding that Nady, PMac, Knott, and Klesko can’t play 1b is no reason to pursue Gonzalez. It’s a reason to wonder who the heck is making decisions for the Padres.
A plus fielder at 1st base would be nice, but Gonzalez has had one hitting season that qualifies as good since 2001. He’s not a bad player to pick up, but we have bigger holes in the OF and the rotation.
I’m wary of any player who doesn’t have a good season until his second time through a league, esp. when he’s old for that league. Maybe Laird has really good LHP splits, so he’d be a good partner for Kottaras. It just seems like we’re bent on acquiring more mid-range talent, which works well if you supplement it with some stars. We don’t seem to have any intention of acquiring stars.
November 11, 2005 at 8:16 am
Joseph: I believe I saw Markakis and Johnson, though neither did much to distinguish themselves one way or another; sorry I can’t be more help there.
TW: One thing to bear in mind is that acquiring mid-range talent is actually the Cleveland Indians model. For example, they stole Travis Hafner from Texas (for Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese).
This isn’t to suggest that Gonzalez is another Hafner, or even close, but I like the approach. Young players who aren’t well regarded in their own organization can come pretty cheap. That is where some of the best bargains are found. Acquiring stars, OTOH, is much more expensive.
November 11, 2005 at 9:27 am
I’d disagree that the Indians acquired mid-range talent. Hafner always had OBP skills and had hit with power as early as 99. Injuries slowed him, but the only real mediocre campaign in his past was 98 in the Sally League. Adrian Gonzalez has been mediocre more often, although he’s also younger. Grady Sizemore was drafted as and remains a 5 tool player. Nothing mid-range about him. They’ve also developed their own top-end talent in Martinez, Peralta, etc.
I’d love to go after players undervalued by other organizations. That makes me wonder why Eaton isn’t worth more than a blocked 1b with a checkered performance past and a 26 year old borderline catching prospect.
Like I said, acquiring mid-range players is fine. But if you have a roster full of mid-range players, you get mid-range results. Will the NL West be so bad in the future that a mid-range roster can win it? We need some above-average production from somewhere. If we’re not going to sign FAs, we need to trade for those impact players. If the rumors are to be believed (a big if), we’re not looking in that direction.
November 12, 2005 at 9:55 am
TW: You raise some good points about Martinez, Peralta, etc. I’m hoping that Grady Fuson’s influence will start to pay dividends soon (actually, I think the Pads had a pretty good draft this past June).
Regarding Hafner, he wasn’t always considered a top-notch prospect. Sickels gave him a grade of C+ in his 2001 book, noting that Hafner was a year older and a level behind Carlos Pena (who was received an A grade in the same book). Hafner always mashed but he didn’t reach Double-A till he was 24 years old.
Again, I’m not necessarily equating the guys the Pads are looking at right now with Hafner in terms of talent. I’m thinking more in terms of how they might be viewed by their current organization.
Philosophically, I like the idea of trading useful (but not special) parts for decent prospects. Steve Reed for Jason Bay jumps to mind. I am not sure that Eaton for one or more of the Rangers kids falls into the same category, so any issues I would have with the deal relate to execution of the plan, not the plan itself, if that makes sense.
November 15, 2005 at 9:32 am
Geoff, I just got back from Arizona myself but I think I arrived there the day you left. It was a hiking and sight seeing trip for me but I did see one game. I was mostly watching borderline Tiger prospects with little future but I did notice that Brad Eldred is a monster. I don’t know if he’ll ever make contact consistently but he should hit a lot of homeruns.