More Castilla Reaction
Mon, Nov 7, 2005
by Geoff Young
I’m still recovering from the trip out to Arizona, but here’s a hodgepodge of reaction from various sources. Thanks again to my wife for getting the initial post out in a timely manner while I was away.
Padres Blogs
- Lawrence sent to the Nationals for 38 year old Vinny Castilla (Gaslamp Ball)
- What The Fu-?!?!?!?! (Friar Faithful)
Local MSM
- Padres swap Lawrence for Castilla (Padres.com)
- Castilla is Padres’ first catch (NC Times)
- Padres’ Lawrence to Nats for Castilla (U-T)
Nats Blogs
- One man’s trash (Oleanders and Morning Glories)
- Adios Castilla! (Capitol Punishment)
- Lawrence of, er, Anacostia? (The Curly W)
National Media
Projections for Castilla
- BTF’s ZiPS: .230/.282/.382, 14 HR
- Bill James Handbook: .249/.305/.381, 15 HR
ZiPS is for Petco Park, BJH is for RFK Stadium. Speaing of which, there are some who believe Petco will help Castilla. I’m not so sure:
HR by RHB in NL Parks, 2005
Cin: 115
Hou: 114
Mil: 113
Col: 108
ChN: 105
StL: 104
Ari: 88
Phi: 87
SF: 87
Atl: 79
LA: 78
Pit: 76
NYN: 74
Fla: 53
Was: 53
SD: 44
So, that’s a little more for you. We’re not done talking about this ― I’ve gotten quite a bit of e-mail from folks who have opinions on the deal. We’ll get to those later in the week, along with a report from the AFL.
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November 7, 2005 at 9:31 am
Can we move the Western Metal Supply Building in a tad? That thing is on wheels you know. Like the temperary stands at Jack Murphy, just rolls around.
Move it in about 20 feet or so, help Vinny out. Oh, and put beer can holders at all the bases, for Vinny’s beer. Well, maybe not third, because I doubt he’ll be there often.
You know with Vinny and Trevor and Klesko, we can have the over 35 league. Maybe MLB will give us a handicap of 15 games or so.
How bout, if you hit the ball over the infield, you don’t have to run, it an automatic first base. That way, no pulled muscles.
And during the seventh inning stretch, grand kids are allowed on the field to play with their player/grandpas.
And lets not forget, viagra samples for all during the after game dinner. Got to keep thier spirits up.
Maybe change game times to 5 am, after all the old guys finish with their walks.
I could go on, but there is a stinging in my eyes.
November 7, 2005 at 9:31 am
This is a surprising trade that’s very good for the Nationals. Considering that had the Nationals not dumped Sun Woo Kim, Tomo Ohka, and Claudio Vargas in mid-season, they would have fared better last season. SO, getting Brian Lawrence was a very good deal for them. Getting him for Vinny Castilla is downright robbery.
It’s possible that Vinny would do just alright in Petco. The problem is not only his declining hitting but the trouble he’s had with his knees that lead to his sitting on the bench or not hitting/fielding…not playing. If Vinny got to be healthy then it’s possible that he’ll be slightly better than his stats last season. If he’s better than Randa, I’d be happy.
Getting rid of Brian Lawrence is a good move since he’s blocking the way for the younger and better arms. I just hope this doesn’t mean we are trading for David Wells. Is Burroughs out? I don’t know if anybody would take him. He might as well ride the plank in SD and hope to play backup to Vinny since I don’t think Vinny is going to play 162 games.
I don’t like the deal in that once again the Padres are getting older. Why not push up the younger players? Sure, the Padres are not like the Braves in the farm system, but that doesn’t mean the Padres shouldn’t be like the Braves in trusting the younger players to perform.
I also don’t like the deal to go down now. Is Vinny a hot commodity in the free agent market? I doubt it. Couldn’t this deal wait? I’m sure there are takers for Brian Lawrence.
Let’s wait and see if KT gets to cut ties with Chan Ho Park and Woody Williams and what does he get in return.
November 7, 2005 at 11:01 am
I think we know now why Towers wasn’t hired as the Dbacks GM.
Arizona:”So Kevin, what deals have you made and what are you working on now?”
KT:”I traded Oliver Bay and Jason Bay for 2+ years of Brian Giles and right now I’m working on a trade for Vinny Castilla.”
Arizona:”Ummmmmm…..we’ll call you later with our decision.”
Seriously, who gets ripped off in a trade with Jim Bowden except for maybe Tommy Lasorda? What, wasn’t Christian Guzman not available?
November 7, 2005 at 11:55 am
Geoff: I think part of that lack of RH power at Petco was attributable to who the Padres RH batters were last season. From what I’ve heard of RFK it’s quite a bit deeper to left. A full season of Greene at SS (instead of many AB’s going to Jackson, Garcia, Alexander and Valdez) Nady at 1B (instead of Nevin, Sweeney and Fick), and Johnson in the OF (instead of Jackson and Young) might change those numbers.
November 7, 2005 at 12:01 pm
Geoff, thanks for the raw numbers on HR hit by RHB at Petco and JFK. To echo Pat’s point, I would also look at the caliber of RHB power coming into both stadia in addition to that playing half their games there. It looks like Padres’ righties hit 28 of the homers at Petco, even though the Padres’ two biggest HR hitters were LHB. I would also try to account for the fact that most of the Padres’ starts were made by righties, which could suppress RHB Hrs as well.
One other thing I recall about JFK is that the listed distances to LF and the LF gap are inaccurate, and the park is deeper than measured.
Again, I’m not expecting a whole lot out of Castilla offensively, just more power and probably RBI than either Burroughs or Randa was likely to provide.
November 7, 2005 at 3:56 pm
Padres are shopping Burroughs *and* Nady (tip of the cap to Gaslamp Ball):
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
If they’re not going to use Nady, then I’m glad they’re trying to send him to someone who will.
November 8, 2005 at 9:44 am
Wow. Nady on the trading block. Interesting. Isn’t he a RH hitter with power? Don’t the Padres need that? I wonder if this means the negotiation with Giles is going better than we thought.
That said, getting Coco Crisp, if possible is intriguing.
November 8, 2005 at 12:38 pm
Is Tagg Bozied ever going to make it to the Majors? Bench player?
November 8, 2005 at 4:01 pm
Good question, Didi! He was sure on his way when he blew out his knee last season … bummer that he couldn’t get back on the field (much) this season … at this point, he’s gone from a long shot to a VERY long shot, me thinks … but I’m still hope-in’ & rootin’!
And lets not forget Freddy Guzman! He’s doing VERY well in the Dominican Winter League!
November 8, 2005 at 4:04 pm
Some fun stuff …
http://www.aip.org/isns/reports/2005/019.html
http://www.maa.org/mathhorizon.....inners.pdf
November 8, 2005 at 4:58 pm
LM: That is interesting stuff on the Cy Young Award; I’ll have to read the full article this weekend.
Didi: Don’t know about Bozied. The Padres have an abundance of similar players in Bozied, Knott, Sain, and Corey Smith.
In other news, the Pads pick up option on Otuska, decline on EY:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....BHeadlines
November 8, 2005 at 8:09 pm
Does anyone have any insight into why we wouldn’t pick up an $850,000 option on a guy with EY’s skill set?
November 8, 2005 at 9:14 pm
Thanks for the link.
RFK is indeed deeper than the posted dimensions. It turns out that it’s about 390 to the power alleys.
Vinny wasn’t really an extreme pull hitter. A lot of his power was from alley to alley, and he hit a lot of towering flyball outs that were run down in the gaps. Your park won’t be much of a help there.
I’m not sure whether he was unable to pull the ball because of injury or because his bat was getting slow. If you look at his last month or two, he hit decently. It’s just that his May-July was horrible.
You’ll quickly get frustrated watching him hack at the first pitch, but he seems like a nice guy, and he gets just enough big hits at key times to make you like the guy — even if you know he’s nothing special.
November 9, 2005 at 7:17 am
Chris, fwiw, the hit charts for RFK showed that Vinny hit 6 of his 8 homers at or to the left of LCF (”380″), plus 14 of 21 doubles. In terms of his deep fly outs, it looks like a lot were hit to CF, as you indicate.
Just by eyeballing it, if some of his RFK doubles were wall balls, they could have been homers at the shorter LF-LCF gap at Petco. I realize that Petco goes to 402 in deep LCF, but that is closer to CF than the straight-line gap, so Vinny might have lost an HR there.
For now, I’ll stick by my position that Petco will help Vinny more than RFK, or maybe I should say “hurt less”.
November 9, 2005 at 10:36 pm
Nice analysis, TF. Also, “hurt less” is probably what you’re looking for.
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