Fairness, Perception, and Viewing the World with a Critical Eye

by Geoff Young on Jan 11, 2006 (30) Comments

So, Bruce Sutter is the lone inductee into the Hall of Fame this year. I have been to Cooperstown, once, in the summer of 1988. The Hall of Fame is a must-visit for any baseball fan; I highly recommend it and hope to get back there again one day soon (perhaps for Tony Gwynn’s eventual induction?). If you ever find yourself there with children, this would be a good opportunity to teach them about fairness, perception, and the importance of viewing the world they live in with a critical eye. Just because a bunch of people in positions of authority reach a consensus that someone or something is great doesn’t make it so. Not a terribly satisfying life lesson, but a valuable one.

For grins, which of the following describes the career of a Hall of Famer, and which describes that of a guy who didn’t receive enough votes to merit further consideration?

ERA+, in Descending Order
Pitcher A Pitcher B
327 304
226 248
185 238
149 179
143 156
136 149
127 136
126 122
86 119
86 91
78 77
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Omits one season from each pitcher in which he worked fewer than 20 innings.

Can’t tell ‘em apart? Here, have another. Same deal, but with win shares:

Win Shares, in Descending Order
Pitcher A Pitcher B
27 21
23 16
22 15
17 13
16 13
16 12
13 12
12 12
8 8
3 3
2 1
Stats courtesy of Bill James’ Win Shares. Omits one season from each pitcher in which he worked fewer than 20 innings.

Pretty obvious from this one that the role of closer had changed by the time Pitcher B had arrived, and I certainly won’t make the case that John Wetteland belongs in the Hall of Fame. But I do find it a bit amazing how much disconnect there can be between perception and reality. None of this is Sutter’s fault, of course, but it sure would be nice if the folks who make these decisions were at least paying attention.

Eight seasons of better-than-league average ERA gets you to Cooperstown. So, if you’re Trevor Hoffman are you optimistic about your chances now because you’ve had a better career than Sutter had? Or are you pessimistic because you know your fate rests with people who aren’t terribly adept at judging these things?

Other Reaction

There you go. Also, if you haven’t done so already, be sure to download a copy of Ducksnorts: Best of 2005. It’s free; donations are welcome but not required.

Hall of Fame Thoughts

by Geoff Young on Jan 09, 2006 (22) Comments

As you probably know, Hall of Fame results will be announced tomorrow. While we were waiting, Eric Mirlis (The Mirl.com) asked a bunch of writers to make their selections. I was fortunate enough to be among those asked to participate.

I chose five players from among the candidates: one was an absolute no-brainer in my mind, one was a little less obvious but had some special circumstances working in his favor, and the other three got my vote largely because they are at least as good as (if not better than) recent inductees who played the same position.

Head on over to TheMirl.com for more:

Who do you like on this year’s ballot, and why?

Obligatory Shawn Estes Rant

by Geoff Young on Jan 09, 2006 (25) Comments

So, the Padres have added Shawn Estes to the mix for 2006. Among pitchers who have worked 400 or more innings over the last four seasons, two of the five worst ERAs belong to guys in the Friars’ projected rotation:

Worst ERAs since 2002 (min 400 IP)
Name IP ERA BB/9 K/9
Chan Ho Park 426.2 5.78 4.56 6.60
Jose Lima 480.2 5.75 2.66 4.46
Steve Sparks 416.2 5.51 3.22 4.51
Ryan Drese 520.1 5.45 3.29 4.70
Shawn Estes 638.2 5.43 4.45 5.52
Stats courtesy of David Pinto’s Day-by-Day Database.

A total of 15 pitchers who’ve worked 400 or more innings since 2002 have posted an ERA over 5.00. (Ismael Valdez and Darrell May are the other Padres represented, if you’re interested. Pedro Astacio doesn’t make the list because he’s been injured so much. Drop the threshold to 350 innings and he and Tim Redding are right there with Casey Fossum and Ryan Dempster.) Of those 15, only one has logged more innings than Estes, Colorado’s Jason Jennings.

For grins, here is Estes’ walk distribution per start over that period:

Shawn Estes Walks by Start,
2002 – 2005
BB Ct %
0 3 2.7
1 21 18.8
2 25 22.3
3 28 20.5
4 23 20.5
5 5 4.5
6 7 6.3

Here are the strikeouts:

Shawn Estes Strikeouts by Start, 2002 – 2005
SO Ct %
0 6 5.4
1 15 13.4
2 19 17.0
3 22 19.6
4 16 14.3
5 15 13.4
6 8 7.1
7 6 5.4
8 3 2.7
9 1 0.9
11 1 0.9

Estes has had twice as many zero-strikeout starts over the past four years as zero-walk starts. He has walked four or more batters in a game 35 times, while striking out five or more in a game 34 times. Are we grinning yet?

Here’s something else that will make you happy: Estes no longer gets to face the Padres. During that same period, in which his ERA against the world is 5.43, he made seven starts against the Friars and posted a 3.30 ERA. Take away those games, and Estes’ ERA balloons to 5.59.

I keep looking for a bright side to this story, and all I can come up with is that the Jose Lima rumors apparently are false.

San Diego College Baseball Schedules

Let’s move on to better things, shall we? If you’re in town, you can catch a ballgame this coming weekend. The USD Alumni game is Saturday, January 14, 1 p.m., at Cunningham Stadium. Here are the local college 2006 schedules:

  • USD Toreros (available as PDF under “Notes” on right side)
  • PLNU Sea Lions. First game: Bethany College (DH), Sat., Jan. 21, 10 a.m.
  • SDSU Aztecs (available as PDF under “Notes” on right side). First game: Alumni, Sat., Jan. 28, 1 p.m.
  • UCSD Tritons. First game: Alumni, Sat., Feb. 4, 1:30 p.m.

There you go. Live baseball in San Diego each of the next four Saturdays. Schweet!

Other Stuff

Finally, as a reminder, Ducksnorts: Best of 2005 is now available. Download yourself a copy for the very low price of FREE. Enjoy!

Ducksnorts: Best of 2005

by Geoff Young on Jan 08, 2006 (Comments Off) Comments

Okay, it’s finally here and available for download. More than you ever wanted to know about the San Diego Padres’ 2005 season and then some. It checks in at 281 pages and 3.9 MB. I don’t know if we really had that much to talk about or if I just did a lousy job of editing, but there it is.

Other Relevant Info

  • The download is FREE. Just right-click that bad boy and save it to your desktop or wherever, and it’s all yours.
  • If you would like to make a donation, you may do so via PayPal. Click on the PayPal button below and follow the instructions. Any amount is fine, but if you’re not sure how much to contribute, might I suggest $5.91, in honor of Chan Ho Park’s ERA for the Padres in 2005?

Again, and I cannot stress this enough, the download is FREE. Donations are accepted but by no means required.

*Note: PDF documents are viewed using Acrobat® Reader®. Get Acrobat Reader

Backup Backstop Bedlam

by Geoff Young on Jan 04, 2006 (39) Comments

So this is the new year.
And I don’t feel any different.
The clanking of crystal
Explosions off in the distance (in the distance).

I hope you had an excellent New Year. Welcome to 2006. Let’s get back into it, shall we?

Padres have signed catcher Todd Greene and invited him to spring training (U-T). Like Doug Mirabelli and David Ross, Greene is a career backup who has power but doesn’t make contact often. It may amuse (or infuriate) you to know that Mirabelli is #7 on the list of 10 players most comparable to Greene through age 34. Quoth GM Kevin Towers: “We could keep three catchers.” Um, yeah; that’s probably a good idea considering none of these guys has ever played even 100 games in a season.

If you’re looking for a bright side, I suppose it’s that all three of the Padres catchers are upgrades from Gary Bennett, who was Ramon Hernandez‘ predecessor behind the dish in San Diego. But that’s not really much of a bright side, is it? The Padres didn’t give up a big-league starting second baseman to get him, so that’s good.

Ten years ago, Greene was a top prospect, notching a grade of B+ in John Sickels’ 1996 Minor League Scouting Notebook. In fact, Sickels ranked him as the #45 prospect in baseball, just ahead of Eric Ludwick and behind (you’ll love this) Chan Ho Park.

Okay, enough ancient history. What else is happening?

  • Hey look, someone on the East Coast has noticed what the Padres are doing this winter and likes it.
  • Mike at Baseball Insights isn’t so sure about the Padres bullpen. He cites the loss of Akinori Otsuka, Chris Hammond, and Rudy Seanez, and notes that Clay Hensley will have to pitch a lot of “crucial middle innings.” Personally I still favor the approach of finding good, cheap talent, which is exactly what Otsuka, Hammond, and Seanez were. Next year someone will be lamenting the loss of Steve Andrade and Brian Sikorski.
  • According to Padres.com, the Friars are close to inking “longtime nemesis” Shawn Estes (tip of the cap to reader Mike in the comments). If this goes through, we’ll dedicate a separate rant to it. For now I’ll just note that Estes hasn’t had an ERA better than league average since 1997, has walked 100+ batters all four times he’s pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, and won’t get to face the Padres anymore. Park is #4 on his list of most similar pitchers through age 32.
  • The results of the 2005 Sports Blog Awards – MLB are in, and Ducksnorts finished #12. Congratulations to The Cub Reporter and thanks to all who voted for Ducksnorts. We’ll get ‘em next year. :-)
  • Finally, at LynchMob’s request, I’ve added a link to the Ducksnorts Frappr! map over on the right so you can take a look at where your fellow readers are located. We’ve got 44 people on the map, ranging throughout the United States (and even Vienna, Austria!). Feel free to add yourself if you’re not on the map already, and enjoy!

2005 in Review – Relief Pitchers, Part 3

by Geoff Young on Dec 30, 2005 (14) Comments

Before I forget, let me first wish everyone a safe and happy new year. Posting will be light the next couple of weeks as I put the finishing touches on Ducksnorts: Best of 2005 (at 239 pages and counting) and work on some other projects.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. We were talking about relievers, no?

It is appropriate, I suppose, that Ducksnorts should close the year with a look at the man who has closed more victories for a single big-league team than anyone else in history. No, not Clay Hensley, although we’ll touch on him as well.

[Previous entries in this series: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | SP (1) | SP (2) | SP (3) | RP (1) | SP (3) | RP (2)]

Trevor Hoffman

Pitching Capsule
  ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 BA OBP SLG
2004 2.30 174 0.915 6.91 1.32 8.73 0.82 .211 .242 .367
2005 2.97 130 1.110 8.12 1.87 8.43 0.47 .235 .274 .344
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

The only real knocks on his game now are that he doesn’t bounce back as quickly from outings or punch out as many guys as he once did. With the strongest supporting cast he’s had since 1998, there’s no reason to believe he’ll be any less effective this year.

Positives

  • Topped 40 saves for the second straight season and the seventh time in his career.
  • Did a better job of keeping the ball in the park than the previous year.
  • Extremely efficient: career best 3.48 pitches per plate appearance.

Negatives

  • Opponents hit .235 against him, highest mark since 1995.
  • Struck out less than a batter an inning for the second straight season.
  • Failed to break the 60-inning mark for the fourth straight season.

Outlook

After considerable posturing on both sides, Hoffman returns to the Padres for his 14th season in San Diego. At age 38, his dominance is all but gone, replaced by efficiency. Hoffman won’t work a lot of innings, but he’ll continue to be effective and steadily march toward Lee Smith’s all-time saves record. His work ethic will set a good example for the young pitchers, and the sound of AC/DC’s “Hell’s Bells” reverberating throughout Petco Park will serve as one of the few remaining links to the 1998 World Series club. In terms of on-field production, the Padres may have overpaid for the services of an aging icon, but Hoffman’s presence reminds us all of where we have been and where we hope one day soon to return.

Clay Hensley

Pitching Capsule
  ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 BA OBP SLG
2004 minor leagues
2005 1.70 226 1.049 6.23 3.21 5.29 0.00 .195 .266 .237
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.

Expectations

I’d heard the name, but I didn’t really know who he was.

Positives

  • Stepped in and did a great job as a late-inning reliever when others faltered down the stretch.
  • Very tough to hit, especially for power (189 TBF, 6 XBH)
  • Ridiculous numbers against right-handers: .103/.141/.153 in 78 at-bats.
  • Nice 1.90 GB/FB ratio.

Negatives

  • Low strikeout totals.
  • League only got one look at him.

Outlook

Is Hensley for real? We’ve been fooled before by the likes of Dario Veras and Jeremy Fikac, but the early returns are promising. Hensley’s repertoire is diverse enough to merit a shot at the rotation, and all but one of his 82 minor-league appearances are as a starter. But it’s hard to mess with the success that he enjoyed out of the bullpen after the All-Star break as a rookie. It’s always possible the league will catch up with Hensley, but the guess here is that he’ll continue to thrive as one of Bruce Bochy’s top options out of the ‘pen behind Hoffman and Scott Linebrink, although a return to the rotation remains a possibility in the longer term. Whatever his role, Hensley will be more useful than Matt Herges, for whom he was traded in 2003.

2005 in Review – Relief Pitchers, Part 2

by Geoff Young on Dec 28, 2005 (11) Comments

We continue our look back at 2005 with two more pieces of the bullpen puzzle that will set up shop elsewhere next year. Part of what made last season’s relief corps so brilliant was the fact that it consisted largely of cheap parts whose value exceeded their cost by a large margin. Last year’s Rudy Seanez and Chris Hammond could well be this year’s Steve Andrade and Brian Sikorski. With luck, next winter we’ll be paying some other relative unknowns glowing praise for providing a lot of bang for the proverbial buck.

[Previous entries in this series: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | SP (1) | SP (2) | SP (3) | RP (1)]

Rudy Seanez

Pitching Capsule
  ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 BA OBP SLG
2004 3.33 129 1.261 7.63 3.72 9.00 0.59 .228 .301 .374
2005 2.69 143 1.177 7.31 3.28 12.53 0.60 .222 .297 .335
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

Another low-risk signing with potential upside. This is Seanez’ third tour of duty with the Padres. His injury history is pretty lengthy, as he’s managed to appear in 40+ games over a season just once in his career. On the other hand, he’s not being asked to do a whole lot, essentially replacing the frequently disabled Antonio Osuna at the back end of the bullpen.

Positives

  • Set career highs in appearances, innings, and strikeouts per nine.
  • Tremendous production for very little cost ($550k).

Negatives

  • Priced himself out of Padres plans for 2006.

Outlook

Seanez is a fascinating study. He’s always had an electric arm when healthy, but he’s never been able to stay healthy. The Padres signed Seanez when his value was down, and he performed beyond anyone’s wildest expectations. This winter, with a healthy and extremely successful season behind him, the Red Sox gave Seanez $1.9M guaranteed for 2006 and a $2.1M mutual option for 2007. In the current market, and assuming he can come anywhere near his career best levels of 2005, this is fair value. But at Seanez’ age (38) and with his injury history, continued dominance is far from assured. In a year, Seanez has gone from one of the best bargains in all of baseball to a guy who could be worth his salary or a good deal less. The stuff, as always, is there. Who knows about the rest. Ask Rod Beck how quickly things can change.

Chris Hammond

Pitching Capsule
  ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 BA OBP SLG
2004 2.63 175 1.262 9.22 2.14 5.60 0.66 .277 .326 .411
2005 3.84 100 1.108 7.82 2.15 5.22 1.38 .229 .278 .413
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

Hammond isn’t a world beater by any stretch, but when you compare him with some of the other guys who were signed for more money this winter (Dustin Hermanson and Bob Wickman, among others), he looks pretty darned good.

Positives

  • Brilliant first half (2.08 ERA, .194 BAA, 3.11 K/BB ratio).
  • Destroyed lefties (.164/.203/.288).
  • First effective southpaw the Padres have had out of the bullpen for a full season since Jose Nunez in 2001.

Negatives

  • Homerrific second half (8.80 ERA, .309 BAA, 2.35 HR/9).

Outlook

Hammond played a key role early in the season, helping the Padres bridge the gap between the starters and Trevor Hoffman. Unfortunately, neck problems severely limited Hammond’s effectiveness after the All-Star break. His second half decline was so precipitous, in fact, that the Padres left him off the playoff roster. Signed this winter by the team that originally drafted him back in 1986, Hammond will have to prove to the Reds that at age 40, he’s still got a few innings left in his arm.

2005 in Review – Relief Pitchers, Part 1

by Geoff Young on Dec 26, 2005 (7) Comments

I hope everyone had an excellent Christmas. I don’t know about you, but I’ll be digging my way out from under the leftovers for a while.

Meantime, we can talk about relievers.

Trevor Hoffman, as usual, picked up the saves, but it was Scott Linebrink who anchored the Padres bullpen in 2005. Akinori Otsuka and Rudy Seanez were featured prominently in supporting roles. Chris Hammond held up the back end during the first half of the season, with rookie Clay Hensley picking up the slack in the second half.

[Previous entries in this series: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | SP (1) | SP (2) | SP (3)]

Pitching Capsule
  ERA WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 BA OBP SLG
Padres relief pitchers 3.49 1.311 8.40 3.40 7.88 0.71 .247 .316 .370
MLB starting pitchers 6 10 11 9 6 1 11 5 4
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, top 10; yellow, middle 10; red, bottom 10.

The Padres had one of the best bullpens in baseball in 2005. As a group, they finished toward the top of most statistical categories. No team’s relief corps was tougher to homer against than the Padres’. Petco Park no doubt deserves some of the credit for this, but so also does Kevin Towers for assembling a very tough group of relievers on a budget.

Scott Linebrink

Pitching Capsule
  ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 BA OBP SLG
2004 2.14 187 1.036 6.54 2.79 8.89 0.86 .209 .278 .342
2005 1.83 210 1.059 6.72 2.81 8.55 0.49 .209 .273 .312
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

Claimed off waivers from the Astros in late May 2003, Linebrink has developed into one of the better setup men in the NL and serves as an example of how “small market” ballclubs can improve themselves without taking a huge financial hit.

Positives

  • Proved that 2004 was no fluke, delivering a remarkably similar performance.
  • Became even stingier with the long ball.

Negatives

  • Worked 10 fewer innings, but that could also be a positive in the long run; no real negatives.

Outlook

Since joining the Padres, Linebrink has posted a 2.23 ERA over 189 appearances. Among big-league pitchers who have worked 200 or more innings during that same period, only the Yankees’ Mariano Rivera and the Angels’ Francisco Rodriguez have lower ERAs. Linebrink’s supporting numbers are solid as well, and there is little doubt that he could close for any team in baseball. With Trevor Hoffman re-signing, however, Linebrink will be asked to serve again as one of the top setup men in the game. All indications are that he’ll continue to provide the Padres with a dominant late-inning presence and a good insurance policy in case something should happen to the aging Hoffman.

Akinori Otsuka

Pitching Capsule
  ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 BA OBP SLG
2004 1.75 230 1.060 6.52 3.03 10.13 0.70 .199 .266 .305
2005 3.59 107 1.420 7.90 4.88 8.62 0.43 .234 .336 .328
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

Otsuka owned the eighth inning, pacing the NL with 34 holds and limiting the opposition to a paltry .199/.266/.305. He basically turned hitters into Russ Ortiz (.206/.262/.299 career). With Otsuka’s stuff, command, and presence, he could close for a lot of clubs. In San Diego, he’ll have to be content to rack up the holds and let Hoffman seal the deal.

Positives

  • Decreased his home run rate.
  • When on his game, he was still as fun as ever to watch pitch.

Negatives

  • Severe rise in walks and drop in strikeouts.
  • Became much easier to hit.
  • Poor second half (4.62 ERA after All-Star break with 6.04 BB/9, vs 2.89 ERA and 4.10 BB/9 before the break).
  • Huge home/road splits (1.23 ERA at Petco, 6.92 away from it), although much of this can be blamed on two atrocious outings at Arizona; take away those appearances, in which he surrendered 11 earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings, and his road ERA drops to a respectable 3.28.

Outlook

Otsuka struggled with command in his sophomore season, and really tailed off in the second half. Passed by Scott Linebrink in the pecking order and, later, rookie Clay Hensley, Otsuka became expendable and was dealt with Adam Eaton to the Texas Rangers in the deal that brought Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez to San Diego. Many analysts will look at Otsuka’s extreme home/road splits from 2005 and jump to the conclusion that he can’t possibly succeed in the tougher pitching environment of Arlington. I’ll dispute this notion for two reasons. First, as noted above, Otsuka’s road woes are attributable mostly to two appearances at the ex-BOB. Second, Otsuka relies heavily on deception. He features a funky delivery that makes it difficult for hitters to pick up the ball out of his hand, and his out pitch is a slider with such tremendous downward movement that it often is mistaken for a splitter. In coming to a league where most batters haven’t seen these up close and personal, Otsuka should regain the advantage he enjoyed on first arriving in North America. Until hitters learn to recognize and lay off the slider, Otsuka will enjoy considerable success at their expense. Look for a strong first half, with a possible late season fade.

2005 in Review – Starting Pitchers, Part 3

by Geoff Young on Dec 23, 2005 (9) Comments

I am completely fried and ready for the long weekend. This will be my last post before Christmas, so I’ll take the opportunity to wish you and yours a Happy Christmas/Channukah/Kwanzaa/Festivus. Enjoy our look back at Tim Stauffer and Pedro Astacio, and enjoy the holidays; I’ll catch y’all on the flip side.

[Previous entries in this series: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | SP (1) | SP (2)]

Tim Stauffer

Pitching Capsule
  IP/GS ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 BA OBP SLG
2004 minor leagues
2005 5.71 5.33 72 1.494 10.22 3.22 5.44 1.11 .286 .348 .469
Stats courtesy of ESPN.

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

Stauffer probably needs a half a season at Triple-A. He’s the one guy here [in the farm system] who could be an impact player (not an ace but a solid #3).

Positives

  • Stuff was a little better than advertised.
  • Showed good poise; he didn’t appear to be in awe of his surroundings.
  • Worked into the sixth inning in each of his first 13 big-league starts.

Negatives

  • Not as sharp command as you’d like to see from a guy without overpowering stuff.
  • Struggled early in games: opponents hit .377/.493/.607 against him in the first inning, with 1 walk every 6.25 plate appearances; they hit .265/.310/.444, with 1 walk every 16.12 plate appearances thereafter.
  • May not have pitched well enough to secure himself a spot in the 2006 rotation.

Outlook

Despite less than stellar overall numbers, Stauffer never looked like he didn’t belong in the big leagues. He worked good sequences and competed but wasn’t always as precise with his pitches as he could have been. Given a little better command, which should come with experience, he’ll be a solid mid-rotation starter. It may not happen right away, but he will get there.

Pedro Astacio

Pitching Capsule
  IP/GS ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 BA OBP SLG
2004 4.00 10.38 47 2.077 13.50 5.19 6.23 2.08 .342 .419 .579
2005 5.71 4.69 89 1.342 9.45 2.63 5.54 1.21 .271 .322 .446
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.

Bear in mind that the 2004 numbers are over a mere 8.2 IP, so the comparison between those and last year’s numbers should be taken with huge buckets of salt. Also, the 2005 numbers include time with the Rangers.

Expectations

Before the season, none. When the Padres signed Astacio after he was released by Texas, I was a little miffed that he would be taking time away from younger pitchers in the Portland rotation. Before coming to San Diego, here is what Astacio had done over the past 2 1/2 years:

   IP  ERA  WHIP   H/9 BB/9  K/9 HR/9
112.1 6.81 1.540 11.14 2.72 5.69 1.84

You tell me what I should have expected.

Positives

  • Provided a real shot in the arm to a depleted Padres rotation, pitching better down the stretch than he had over any extended period of time since the end of the 1997 season with the Rockies. There aren’t really any other positives, but this one can’t be emphasized enough. With no reasonable expectation of anything from a guy who appeared to be washed up, Astacio came through for the Pads in spades. His was one of the most remarkable performances of the season.

Negatives

  • None, really. Didn’t go deep into games (wasn’t asked to); peripheral numbers were weak (doesn’t diminish what he did, just means he’s unlikely to repeat). But this is like complaining that the $20 bill you found in the gutter is dirty.

Outlook

Astacio is 36 years old and has been hurt most of the past three seasons. There is no reason to expect him to come anywhere near the success he enjoyed in the second half of last season. He can’t really eat innings anymore either. Still, Astacio is a veteran who knows what he’s doing. He’ll probably end up in the back end of someone’s rotation, at least for a while.

How Will We Know When They’re Done?

by Geoff Young on Dec 22, 2005 (48) Comments

I was going to take today off, but the Padres had other ideas. Can you remember such a hyperactive winter, ever? If you’re keeping track, 55% of the Pads at-bats and 49% of their innings last year belong to guys no longer with the team (and this doesn’t include Pedro Astacio and Craig Breslow, who remain in limbo).

As noted in last night’s comments, the Padres have signed RHP Brian Sikorski and 2B Mark Bellhorn. The former has spent the past several years pitching in Japan and is expected to compete for one of the many bullpen vacancies created by the departure of Akinori Otsuka (traded to the Rangers), Rudy Seanez (signed by the Red Sox), and Chris Hammond (signed by the Reds).

Bellhorn has some decent pop for a middle infielder, once hitting 27 home runs in a season (2002, Cubs). He also walks and strikes out a lot. Bellhorn originally was drafted in 1992 by the Padres but didn’t sign. He subsequently was drafted out of Auburn University in 1995 by the A’s, with whom he began his big-league career in 1997. Bellhorn also has played with the Cubs, Rockies, Red Sox, and Yankees.

I’ve updated the roster change chart to reflect these latest moves.

Other Stuff

  • New Padre faces (metalsupply). Michael helps you put faces to names. Love the captions.
  • John Conniff’s take on the Adam Eaton trade. John calls this one a draw.
  • Padres Prospect Journal: Sean Thompson (Scout.com). The Padres young left-hander is the victim of a practical joke.
  • Vote for Ducksnorts at Red Reporter’s 2005 Sports Blog Awards. Right now we (and everyone else) are totally getting smoked by the excellent Bat Girl, but there’s still plenty of time to make up ground. While you’re over there, why not throw some love Gaslamp Ball’s way in the humor category?
  • The response to the Ducksnorts Frappr! map has been excellent. Obviously San Diego is well represented, but we’ve also got folks checking in from the Bay Area, Oregon, Colorado, Indiana, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New York, Hawaii, and yes, Austria. Pretty cool; check it out and feel free to add yourself if you haven’t already.

Finally, here are a couple of blogs I’ve recently discovered that may be of interest to you:

  • World Baseball Classic Blog. Get all the latest info on the WBC. I don’t know if anyone else is fired up about this, but I am. I’ll be at the semifinals and finals in March. Behind the plate, upper deck.
  • Minor League Researcher. I eat this stuff up; here’s a sample: “In my research, I came across a series of three games played by the Robinsons against the Parkers (the Robinsons taking two out of three games) beginning on May 18, 1859, so I wouldn’t at all be surprised for some one to come up with earlier contests, especially since I found this note from the Petaluma Journal: “This game [baseball] is fast becoming a favorite in this locality. Scarcely a day passes but parties may be seen participating in it.”

That’s all for now. We’ll wrap up our look back at the starting pitchers tomorrow.