DePo, Theo, Hoffo, and Zeppo
Wed, Nov 2, 2005
by Geoff Young
First off, if you haven’t checked out our look back at second base in 2005 be sure to do so. We’re trying to figure out possible comps for Josh Barfield, and right now our best guess is Toronto’s Orlando Hudson.
Okay, on to the meaty stuff.
Dodgers Fire Paul DePodesta
Yeah, I’m on top of this one. Hey, if it’s less than a week, it’s still news, right? Anyway, my general thoughts are that, aside from injuries, there wasn’t a lot different between the 2004 playoff team and last year’s version.
The Brad Penny and Milton Bradley acquisitions were good moves, and for the most part DePodesta had his team headed in the right direction. From here it looks like the Dodgers panicked and didn’t let him finish what he’d started.
Oh well, their loss. As a Padres fan, I’m happy enough he’s out of the division. (My wife asks if there’s any chance DePodesta could come to San Diego. Honestly? I have no idea, but it’s an interesting question.)
Everybody’s got an opinion on this: Some of the more relevant are at Dodger Thoughts, 6-4-2, Baseball Analysts, Management by Baseball, and, perhaps most amusingly, Tommy Lasorda’s World.
Theo Epstein Resigns as Red Sox GM
I don’t know where to start. You know if it’s the Red Sox, it’s going to be covered absolutely everywhere. Try Google. Okay, I did and it takes me to Baseball Musings. Among other things, David Pinto expects the Red Sox to be contacting DePodesta. Sure, that makes sense.
In yesterday’s comments, Nick G. pointed to an article at Boston.com that mentions Kevin Towers as a possible successor to Epstein. I suppose I can see that, although getting Towers to move back east might be a tricky endeavor.
What I’m having trouble with is the “possibility of Alderson wooing Epstein to San Diego if Towers winds up with the Red Sox.” If there’s one thing we know about Alderson it’s that he’s big on saving money. If the Red Sox, with their deep pockets, weren’t willing to pony up for Epstein’s services, what makes anyone think the Padres will be?
What I’m about to say might sound like sacrilege to some, but GMs, like players, can be replaced. I don’t doubt that Epstein is a good GM, but if Towers were to leave San Diego, how many more wins would Epstein net the Padres than, say, David Forst? And would the difference in wins be justified by the difference in salaries?
We employ this line of thinking constantly when evaluating players. It’s why we rip the signing of guys like Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin. Sure, they’re good enough players (or at least they were), but how much value do they really add compared to other, cheaper options?
Conversely, we applaud locking up Jake Peavy to a long-term deal at a relatively low price because, by the end of the contract, who other than their accountants will be able to tell the difference between Peavy and Ben Sheets?
It stands to reason that GMs should be evaluated the same way. Again, none of this is to take anything away from Epstein or what he has accomplished. But he won a World Series in a huge market. Why would he take presumably less money to come back to San Diego? You might as well pencil Manny Ramirez in as the Padres’ cleanup hitter, because it ain’t gonna happen.
It is flattering, though, to know that some folks think it might be a possibility. See, San Diego is moving up in the world!
Trevor Hoffman
Thanks to the guys at Gaslamp Ball for pointing us to an article in Tuesday’s U-T stating that the Padres and Hoffman are far apart. Reportedly the Hoffman camp is seeking — brace yourself — between $25 and $27M over 3 years.
Let me say first that I adore Hoffman, and I love what he has done for both the franchise and the city. As Dex at Gaslamp Ball notes, the idea of the Padres without Trevor Time is hard to imagine.
That said, why in the world would a team with a presumed budget of $70-75M spend 11-13% of it on 38-year-old pitcher who worked just under 4% of the club’s innings last year? Maybe it’s me, but this doesn’t seem like the best investment.
Seriously, I don’t know of too many guys who bring more positive intangibles to a ballclub than Hoffman, but at the end of the day, it’s about production. And to commit $8-9M a year for a pitcher who throws 60 innings a season and who will be 40 at the end of the contract is, pardon my French, absolutely insane.
I love Hoffman, and I hope both sides are just posturing. Nothing would make me happier than to see him return at a reasonable (relative to the market) price and continue his pursuit of Lee Smith’s career save mark in a Padres uni. But if it’s not going to happen, I’m okay with having Scott Linebrink work the ninth.
As for Zeppo, that’s a story for another day. And another blog. Told by someone else.
Reminder: I’ll be in Arizona for the AFL starting Thursday and on through the weekend, so talk amongst yourselves. Pix and words early next week.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
November 1, 2005 at 11:47 pm
I have to disagree with your argument about overpaying a GM. What’s the difference between an average GM salary and a top GM salary? $500,000? A million? That’s peanuts compared to what a team spends on payroll and the right GM really can make a difference, just as a bad GM can ruin a team. Anyway, reports are that it was the horrid front office politics in Boston that drove Theo out, not money. In this case I actually believe it really wasn’t about money.
You are spot on about Hoffman. You can get a hell of a starting pitcher for the kind of money his agent is asking for, a guy that will give you 200 innings a year. I think the Padres offer was fair, considering his age. Some of the comments from Trevor and his agent in that article were disgusting, about how “Trevor needs to be recognized for what he has done” Excuse me? $100,000 an inning is plenty of recognition as far as I’m concerned. If the Padres give him the $25 million and Trevor blows out his back is he going to “recognize” that he can’t pitch and give the money back? Sure he had a good year but he’s at an age where guys can just fall off a cliff suddenly. See Steve Finley.
November 2, 2005 at 7:50 am
Yeah, Anthony, GM salary isn’t at the top of the list in terms of money resources, but it still is a factor.
Look at it another way: The Red Sox took a chance on Epstein despite his lack of experience. He didn’t cost them much *and* he turned out to be quite good.
I have to believe there are more Epsteins out there who have yet to be discovered. The trick, as with players, is to identify them and bring them in while they’re still affordable. (And of course retain them if feasible.)
And I hear you about that money wasn’t the only issue with Epstein and the Red Sox. What I’m really trying to get at is:
a) Alderson doesn’t want to spend a lot of money.
b) Epstein isn’t going to come cheap.
It just seems like a bad match to me.
On a related note, here’s a good article from Tim Sullivan at the U-T that went to press after I posted this:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....livan.html
November 2, 2005 at 7:53 am
Oh, and here’s more on Hoffman:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
The story quotes his agent as saying, “Now, if we’re out on the open market, as soon as we can negotiate with other clubs, whatever proposal we’re giving to the Padres, I’m sure Trevor will make much more than that.”
I’m not sure Hoffman’s agent really believes that, but if he does, Hoffman probably should find a new agent.
November 2, 2005 at 9:08 am
Well, Hoffman’s agent been spotted at a local hangout with Ditka and Malone. Apparently, they’ve been giving him the lowdown on how to overvalue your player and sell the notion to the organizations in the league.
Best case scenario for Hoffman would be for him to find out what the market is and take the hometown discount of 30%. I can see how a team with deep-pockets trying to overbid for his service. In that case, I’m with you, Geoff - Linebrink takes the ball. I can’t imagine if Hoffman really wants to stay a Padre that he won’t take a similar deal that the Padres gave Gwynn towards the end of his career.
Have lots of fun at AFL, Geoff. We want full scouting reports.
November 2, 2005 at 9:48 am
I hate to say it but the pads should see what Hoffman can get on the open market, bring him back down to earth then negotiate, there’s no way he will get a three year contract or more then 5-7 mil a year, and if he can then let him go, I would rather not have the pay constraints when he throws a 80 MPH fastball and a 75 MPH change up when he’s 40.
November 2, 2005 at 9:54 am
Barfield’s top comparable from PECOTA was Clete Boyer.
His top comparable among current players was Scott Hairston.
November 2, 2005 at 10:03 am
Even our “lowball” offer is too high. Hoffman isn’t worth $5M/year. Or at least, his production isn’t worth it. I’m not sure what value his marketability has or anything along those lines.
November 2, 2005 at 10:37 am
Interesting claim on value for production, Richard. Are you using Nate Silver’s salary formula? If not, what are you using to value Hoffman’s production, and could you show us how you do it for Hoffman and some other Padre free agents, like Giles, Hernandez and Randa?
November 2, 2005 at 11:19 am
Second TF’s request, Richard. I’d love to hear more about valuation and what tools you use. I think Hoffman is a tough case becasue you do have a significant factor other than his production to consider. He does have marketability, he does bring people to the park, and he’ll bring more as he approaches Smith’s record. So clearly the Padres should pay some sort of premium over what his production is worth, but how do they determine what premium? Tough call.
I also read his agent’s comment that Trevor will bring much more than 3 years at $25 to $29 million on the market. My thought was, “You’re hallucinating!”
November 2, 2005 at 11:46 am
The team that scares me a little in the Hoffman sweepstakes is the Mets. They have deep pockets and will overspend to get what they want.
Apparently, the Mariners have already contacted Hoffman’s agent as well. Not that I take Seattle seriously.
I also read that the Snakes covet Hoffman. Which makes me just ill. They would probably have to get rid of some salary to afford him, though.
I hope this thing works out, it would bug me to see Hoffy in another uniform.
The top three closers available, and possible suitors:
1. Hoffy (he’s always at the top): SD, AZ, NYM
2. Wagner: Philly, NYY, NYM.
3. BJ Ryan: Bos, NYY, NYM. Supposedly the Yanks and Sox are going to be in a “Bernie Williams” bidding war for this guy.
November 2, 2005 at 1:16 pm
Everyone loves the Padres:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....2006_early
ESPN ranks them at #23 in their “power rankings” going into next season. Giants are #15, Snakes #17.
Hilarious.
November 2, 2005 at 6:05 pm
TF,
I’m basing it partially on Nate Silver’s equation and partially on the fact that $5M for a relief pitcher is insane when you’re on a relatively tight budget. It’s not even as though he’s an “elite” reliever. He’s not even the best on the team.
November 2, 2005 at 6:06 pm
TF,
I’m basing it partially on Nate Silver’s equation and partially on the fact that $5M for a relief pitcher is insane when you’re on a relatively tight budget. It’s not even as though he’s an “elite” reliever. He’s not even the best on the team.
November 2, 2005 at 10:19 pm
One potential positive of losing Hoffman: perhaps the Padres could cease using a “closer.”
November 3, 2005 at 7:08 am
Apparently, the dreaded Doggers have contacted Theo Epstein (note: you need an online subscription to view the L.A. Times article):
http://www.latimes.com/sports/.....mlb-dodger
November 3, 2005 at 12:55 pm
Good thoughts Richard, but our buddy Bochy might have his head explode if he couldn’t manage his bullpen by rote memory. How many times during the course of the season did he insist on bringing in his “8th inning guy” Aki when he clearly was struggling and Linebrink would have been a better option? Heck I would accept Ozzie Guillen’s use of his pen over Bochy’s “roles” method any day.
I’m afraid it will be a snowball’s chance in hell before we see the modern closer done away with. Look how much grief Epstein got when he tried it in Boston during 2003. Perhaps it could succeed in a not so high pressure environment like SD though. Just a thought.
November 3, 2005 at 4:38 pm
Very limited access at the moment. Saw Surprise and Mesa play this afternoon. Corey Smith hit a two-run homer but played DH.
Non-Padres: Jared Weaver pitched okay but nothing special. Mike Wood hit his 12th homer of the season to tie Tagg Bozied’s AFL record. He has 7 or 8 games left to break it.
Off to dinner now and another game tonight. More later as time permits…
November 3, 2005 at 6:44 pm
Brian Lawrence AND cash for Vinny Castilla and his knee tendinitis?!? For real?
November 3, 2005 at 7:05 pm
Sickening:
Nationals acquired RHP Brian Lawrence and cash from the Padres for third baseman Vinny Castilla.
The cash might even up the salaries. Lawrence is due $3.5 million next year and has an option for 2007 at $5.7 million with a $550,000 buyout. Castilla will earn $3.2 million in the final year of his deal.
-from Rotoworld
I know Lawrence had an off year but I think he still can be an efective pitcher, certainly he has the potential to bounce back 2003/2004 levels. Castilla is 38 years old and sucks and has the potential to fall off a cliff. Hey, as long as we’re not wasting money on free agents, right?
Also from Rotoworld:
Why the Padres felt the need to make this trade on Nov. 3 when there could have been many more possibilities later is beyond us.
November 3, 2005 at 7:36 pm
WHHAAAAAATTT? Why would they do that?
November 3, 2005 at 9:40 pm
Lots of speculation over at the Sons of Sam Horn message board that this trade was to open a spot for Wells to come back. They have some odd ideas about Wells’ worth though. One idea is Klesko and Nady for Wells, no way are we going to give up Nady for one year of an old pitcher, even if it does mean dumping Klesko’s salary.
Other trades mentioned are Aki for Wells, which strikes me a equally absurd. A bigger deal they’ve mentioned is Dave Roberts and Linebrink for Wells, Trot Nixon and Kelly Shoppach, a pretty decent C prospect. We’d take on a lot of salary in that deal but talent wise I’d do it.
What do you guys think would be a good offer for Wells? Boston needs a 3B,a 1B, a CF and bullpen help. I think salaries will have to balance out since they could have just traded B Law for Wells but I think the Sox wouldn’t have given back the $4 million difference.
November 3, 2005 at 10:02 pm
Five mil for Hoffman is stupid no matter who you have on hand. We’ve had many proofs of the idea of reliever replacability just over the last few years, and while Hoffman has been more than acceptable, isn’t of the quality (at least anymore) where you really need to pay through the nose for him. An approximation of TH can be had at the price of scouting minor league talent / slding SL into the role and, given modern bullpen construction, not much will be lost. Given that the Dodgers will likely be much better next season, tossing TH’s dollars and “marketability” on the fire for a better chance of making the playoffs (and not just as a default) is a good gamble.
November 4, 2005 at 4:40 am
I think Burroughs may be on his way to Boston. Although I don’t see much difference between him and their current 3B Youkilis. I’m thinking it’s some variation of Burroughs and Aki for Wells.
The Sox are desparate for pitching.
I don’t know about the Roberts and Linebrink thing. By all accounts, Shoppach is a good prospect, and the Sox have no room for him. I don’t see Nixon fitting in Petco, though. He’s a gamer, but he is ALWAYS hurt — back, knees, etc.
November 4, 2005 at 11:07 am
Maybe we had to take Castilla to clear BLaw off the books. But saying or wishing that Castilla is an improvement on our current third base situation is not saying a whole lot when those third basemen were barely replacement level to begin with. I can only hope that we give Vinny the Pokey Reese treatment and non-tender him. As much as I won’t miss BLaw, I just don’t see why this deal had to be made now. I am optimistic that the Pads have a plan, but this is not a good start.
November 4, 2005 at 12:39 pm
I don’t see the Padres as being done with this trade. It’s a start of some plan. I don’t what that is but like we all posted here, BLaw for Vinny is just dumb if there is all trade to do.
I’m thinking Vinny is just going to be flip for another player. Maybe he’ll be going to the Red Sox with somebody else for Wells and other players. Either way, it’s still an iffy trade if the objective is to have Wells back in SD. Why? Wells was done in Boston. I sure don’t want the Padres to get stuck with paying all that cash Boston promised Wells. Heck, I don’t want Vinny either.
We stay tuned.
November 4, 2005 at 12:41 pm
It’s the same thinking behind the Long/May trade: Use sludge to fill a hole without spending any money. Except, it was wrong to appraise Lawrence as sludge in my opinion.
November 4, 2005 at 1:55 pm
I would take Wells back in about 5 seconds. Say what you want about the guy, but he probably gave the Sox at least 20 good starts this year (he was hurt for like a month, I think). I think his stuff translates well to Petco.
I don’t see the Castilla thing as being a total waste, either. He’s a slick fielder, and he did have 36 doubles last year, in a big park. I’m just really confused as to what they’re doing right now.
Anyone think Castilla is on his way to Boston? I think the Pads are trading a 3B there, just don’t know which one. The Pads don’t really have any high OPB guys. Unless they would take Klesko! ha ha ha
November 4, 2005 at 4:13 pm
Assuming that Castilla and Lawrence are above replacement value at their respective positions, all things being equal, isn’t it better to have the everyday position player over the starting pitcher? Just curious. I would be interested to read any stat-based analysis of this trade. By some metrics, Castilla had a better 2005 than Lawrence, and vice versa.
November 4, 2005 at 4:14 pm
If Hoffman goes, who’s out there to replace him? For the money he wants, can the Padres get someone who can give them 40+ saves per year?
Yes, he doesn’t have the stuff he once did, and I thought he was done a couple of years ago, but generally speaking he gets the job done more than most closers. They are scarce, at least the effective ones.
November 5, 2005 at 11:22 am
The trouble isn’t replacing Hoffman. I’m pretty confident Linebrink can do that, no problem. The problem is replacing Linebrink in the setup role.
November 6, 2005 at 6:51 am
I had a conversation on Friday with someone close to the organization, who said that they were doing all they can to sign TH, but they were not going to pay him $25m over three years. He said that they will likely offer some kind of incentive-laden contract, but for a shorter term.
I got the feeling that they want him more for the fans than for his baseball prowess.