2005 in Review - Right Field
Mon, Dec 12, 2005
by Geoff Young
I stumbled across the Padres 2006 calendar at the mall the other night. Each month features a different player. Of the 12 players represented, only 6 are current Padres. I thought of offering half price, with an option to buy the 2007 calendar at full price if a certain percentage of players slated for inclusion remained with the club through its publication, but I suspected that the store clerk would neither understand nor appreciate the joke, so instead I put the calendar back on the shelf. Fortunately for the Padres and their fans, one of the players who did remain is featured prominently in today’s installment.
[Previous entries in this series: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF]
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB/PA | ISO | SEC | RC/27 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres right fielders | .290 | .411 | .466 | .172 | .176 | .401 | 7.03 |
| MLB rank | 4 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 2 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, top 10; yellow, middle 10; red, bottom 10. |
|||||||
| FPct | RF | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres right fielders | .984 | 2.26 | |||||
| MLB average | .980 | 2.10 | |||||
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, above average; red, below average. |
|||||||
Thanks to the exploits of Brian Giles, right field was one of the true strengths for the Padres in 2005. Only three players in the NL had a higher Offensive Winning Percentage than Giles (.766), and only two had more than his 32 win shares. Giles accounted for a tick under 84% of the Padres innings at the position last year, with the remainder coming from among Xavier Nady, Ben Johnson, Robert Fick, Mark Sweeney, Miguel Ojeda, and Damian Jackson.
Brian Giles
Summary
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB/PA | ISO | XBH/H | RC/27 | OPS+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | .284 | .374 | .475 | .125 | .191 | .364 | 6.34 | 126 |
| 2005 | .301 | .423 | .483 | .182 | .153 | .372 | 7.41 | 148 |
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend. |
||||||||
| FPct | RF | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giles | .987 | 2.22 | ||||||
| MLB average | .980 | 2.10 | ||||||
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, above average; red, below average. |
||||||||
Expectations
From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:
If he can get back to the .300/.400/.500 levels that used to be the norm, Giles will be a valuable member of the lineup. If not, he’ll still be useful but disappointingly so.
Positives
- Bounced back nicely from somewhat disappointing 2004 season.
- Extremely tough out; never gave away an at-bat.
- Led all big-league hitters in walks.
Negatives
- Home run power isn’t what it used to be; mid-30s once was the norm, now 15-20 is more realistic.
- Petco Park doesn’t appear to suit Giles’ game real well:
Giles Home/Road Splits Since the Padres Moved to Petco Park AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H AB/HR Home 559 .277 .377 .454 .142 .167 .368 34.94 Road 595 .306 .417 .501 .160 .195 .368 27.05 Stats courtesy of Baseball Musings Day By Day Database. Note that the percentage of hits that go for extra bases is identical (actually it’s about 4/1000ths higher on the road) both at and away from Petco Park, but there are pretty large discrepancies in ISO and AB/HR. I haven’t looked at a chart of where Giles hits the ball, but with the fences in right-center moving in around 10-12 feet, it’s not unreasonable to think that some of those doubles to the alley might reach the seats next year.
Outlook
Giles tested the free agent market this winter for the first time in his career. Fortunately the Padres were able to sign him through 2007, with an option for 2008. Although many of the traditional offensive numbers aren’t eye popping, especially compared to what he did in his prime, the Offensive Winning Percentage and win shares demonstrate that Giles still is capable of producing runs with the best of them.
Giles should continue to be the centerpiece of the Padres offense for the duration of his new contract. With all the other roster shuffling that has transpired this off-season, re-signing Giles is the one move ― from a purely baseball standpoint ― that the Padres had to make.
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December 12, 2005 at 11:02 am
Hi Geoff, good interview on the BaseBloggin site.
I’m wondering if Ben Johnson is going to start at RF next season, moving Giles back to LF. Anybody?
Would the defense suffer since Giles was so good at RF last season?
December 12, 2005 at 11:17 am
Didi: I don’t think the defense would suffer much. Giles did a great job of playing the angles out there but his arm is better suited to left. I think a lot depends on what the club does with Dave Roberts. As Peter mentioned in a previous thread, all indications are that the Padres aren’t done making moves this off-season.
December 12, 2005 at 11:58 am
Just out of curiosity . . . How is Johnson’s arm? Is he a better outfielder than Giles?
December 12, 2005 at 12:14 pm
Johnson’s generally considered to have good arm strength. Haven’t seen anything about his accuracy.
Johnson’s faster than Giles. Don’t know how he is at reading balls. The one fielding memory that sticks out is him being frozen in that playoff game at St. Louis, and that’s not fair.
If both of them are playing regularly, I’d like to see Johnson in RF with Giles in LF. If we keep Roberts, then Giles has to stay in RF.
December 12, 2005 at 12:47 pm
I’m considering buying tickets to the WBC. Can anyone recommend seats or warn against seats at Petco Park? Thanks.
December 12, 2005 at 1:28 pm
According to U-T, the Padres signed Dave Roberts.
Interestingly, there was a supposedly offer from Angels to swap Klesko for Finley.
December 12, 2005 at 1:51 pm
A fun look at all the rumors … http://tinyurl.com/cq5ke
December 12, 2005 at 2:15 pm
To Jason: Nothing by the infamous foul pole in right field.
December 12, 2005 at 3:09 pm
Tom Waits has it exactly correct. If Ben Johnson is a regular, then it makes all the sense in the world to move Giles back to LF (his Pittsburgh position de norm) and let Ben play RF. Ben is a true 5-tool player. Has solid-above-average speed and solid-above-average arm strength… Keep in mind both Giles and Johnson have played CF and not been embarrassments.
December 12, 2005 at 3:57 pm
Link to the Roberts signing in the U-T:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
Couple of other moves today at the minor-league level.
Two pitchers signed from Indy ball:
http://independent.mostvaluabl.....san-diego/
Also, the Pads have added another former first-round pitcher to the fold. Kenny Baugh starred at Rice University some years ago:
http://detroittigersweblog.com.....traded.php
December 12, 2005 at 4:22 pm
I just looked over Colorado’s top 10 on BA, I think we now are the hump-team in terms of minor league talent.
Off the top of my head, I know Arizona and the Dodgers’ systems are better, but I think 1-6 ours beats theres…
(Disclaimer: I don’t know the order, but I’d be surprised if the following 6 guys aren’t in our top 6-8:)
Barfield
Carrillo
Headley
Hundley
Johnson
Kottaras
December 12, 2005 at 4:23 pm
*** Need a correction or edit feature***
I think LA & AZ are better, but I like ours more than Colorado’s (I also like ours more than San Fran’s - but I’ve not seen SF’s list yet).
December 12, 2005 at 4:36 pm
The return of the ex-Padres continues. ESPN is reporting that Doug Brocail will sign this week:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2257058
December 12, 2005 at 5:05 pm
Great job on the links, Geoff.
Doug Brocail??? Holy Cow!
He didn’t have such a great year last year 73.1 IP, 90 H, .301 BAA (Yuck!). Oh, and by the way, that’s a .303 BAA on the road, .299 at home.
KT the junkyard dog strikes again!
December 12, 2005 at 9:34 pm
First thing, thanx for the nod Geoff…
Brocail? That makes less sense to me than the Oxspring move…but KT’s record with the bully signings makes me want to give him the benefit of the doubt; still, I do remember Eddie Oropesa…
to Jason: Not many bad seats, but if you are looking at everything I would say first base line…great view of the city from there too and lots of concessions. BTW, San Diego in March doesn’t compare to colder climes, but still bring a light jacket to night games…
December 13, 2005 at 8:11 am
Add to advice for Jason….. might want to bring an umbrella, too.
December 13, 2005 at 10:17 am
Opening Day????
Roberts
Johnson
Giles
Cameron
Klesko
Castilla
Greene
Maribelli
Perv
Eaton
Woody
??
??
Can someone fill in the blanks? Whose gonna play second?
December 13, 2005 at 10:49 am
Best guess is Barfield or possibly Hill at 2B. Johnson probably platoons with Roberts in LF. Who knows about the back end of the rotation. It isn’t going to be pretty.
December 13, 2005 at 11:43 am
So Padre Mike doesn’t like Jake, or what? Callin’ a guy out as “Perv” - Wow… Harsh…
By the way, I just got a rumor of an Adrian Gonzales for Aki deal - I love it!
December 13, 2005 at 11:47 am
My Opening Day Roster (so far):
Roberts/Johnson LF
Klesko 1B
Giles RF
Cameron CF
Castilla 3B
Olivo C
Greene SS
Barfield 2B
Peavy
Eaton
Woody
Hensley/Astacio
Go to 4-men rotation.
December 13, 2005 at 12:06 pm
Maybe Stauffer for #5?
December 13, 2005 at 12:35 pm
Geoff:
Meant to post this a couple days ago. Thanks for the heads up on the Oxspring move.
For the life of me I don’t understand KT sometimes. Why on earth would you sell off a guy like Oxspring and then turn around and use that money on a guy like Doug Brocail? I just don’t understand that.
Oxspring was a great find for the organization and an excellent pitcher in Portland. I would have loved to know what he could have done with a real chance in SD. Instead, Padres fans are “treated” to yet another greybeard. It’s almost like Towers is opening up a Les Schwab franchise in Petco there’s so many retreads in that locker room right now.
I don’t know if this observation is worth anything, but there isn’t a single guy the Padres have acquired this off-season that I have any interest in seeing in Portland. Yes, even Cameron. I don’t want to see him in Portland’s CF because it might take PT away from Freddy Guzman. I’d rather watch Freddy.
December 13, 2005 at 1:56 pm
Jonathan: believe it or not, I think KT’s motivations are to field a major league squad. Portland is for development and for people to fill the other positions around the developing prospects. My opening day lineup:
Roberts
Greene/Barfield
Giles
Cameron
Klesko
Castilla
Barfield/Greene
Mirabelli/Olivo
The guy the Pads picked up from Detroit yesterday, Baugh, is well ahead of Oxspring in development and could fill a 5 spot right out of Peoria (Detroit is actually a pitching rich system, making this deal possible).
Finally, Doug Brocail is a very servicable middle reliever. Kind of tough to measure pitcher’s performances in Texas (see Pedro Astacio or conversly, Chan Ho). Aki for Adrian Gonzales says to me that a Klesko deal will happen eventually. Note: Nomar about to be signed by Yankees as 1st baseman, interesting.
December 13, 2005 at 2:37 pm
OT: Just learned that JD Arney at Red Reporter is putting together a Sports Blog Awards:
http://www.redreporter.com/sto...../9182/1056
“Nominations will run through December 19th. Voting will run from December 20th through January 1st, and I hope to announce winners on January 2nd.”
There are categories for many different sports including, ahem, baseball.
December 13, 2005 at 3:21 pm
Robert Fick signed with the Nationals.
Do the Padres think that their bench is better off without Fick?
Assuming that the starting lineup is set and the team will be carrying 11 pitchers, there are 6 spots for bench players. Three of those go to Geoff Blum, Eric Young and Bobby Hill. The fourth OF position probably goes to Ben Johnson and the backup catcher is Mirabelli. That leaves one spot for a big time pinch hitter. The Padres lose both Mark Sweeney and Robert Fick. Who will be the sixth bench player?
December 13, 2005 at 3:34 pm
Didi, not better off w/out Fick, but that we couldn’t risk an arbitrator assigning his salary to us. I’m virtually CERTIAN we tried to sign him but his agent/Fick himself didn’t like the $$$. My guess is D.C. isn’t paying him much more than we were going to.
December 13, 2005 at 3:41 pm
Ramon’s deal with Baltimore is 4 yr/$27.5M:
http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?ID=146830
Not quite the 4 yr/$34M I predicted in March:
http://www.all-baseball.com/du.....18086.html
But still too much.
December 13, 2005 at 3:41 pm
Didi: I’m hoping they’ll give Jack Cust a shot to be the left-handed bat off the bench.
December 13, 2005 at 3:42 pm
Quote:
“Jonathan: believe it or not, I think KT’s motivations are to field a major league squad.”
Based on this off-season, that’s quite a leap of faith.
Quote:
“Portland is for development and for people to fill the other positions around the developing prospects.”
No kidding. Did you figure that out all by yourself?
Quote:
“The guy the Pads picked up from Detroit yesterday, Baugh, is well ahead of Oxspring in development and could fill a 5 spot right out of Peoria”
I’m going to assume based on your crack scouting report that you’ve seen both of them pitch numerous times. I know no one would make that kind of assessment based merely on reading BA Trade Central and having seen Oxspring make a couple appearances in San Diego.
Quote:
“Finally, Doug Brocail is a very servicable middle reliever.”
Mighty high praise there.
December 13, 2005 at 3:49 pm
Brad Ausmus: $7.5MM/2 years. Huh? Did he just change positions and become a relief pitcher to catch the wave of crazy-go-nutty free agent salaries?
December 13, 2005 at 4:03 pm
Thanks, Geoff and Peter.
I assume that Jack Cust is also playing 1B then?
Somebody got to relief Klesko after the 6th inning, right?
Is Brocail already signed? I’m not sure he’s better than Breslow.
Brian: that’s funny. I think he certainly hits like one and probably wouldn’t do too bad as a relief pitcher. Wouldn’t that be something? Catch the Rocket and then, relief him for a couple of innings.
December 13, 2005 at 4:22 pm
Peter, or anyone who has insights on Adrian Gonzalez, would you mind sharing more? The only thing I’ve heard about him is his power has suffered from the wrist injury he incurred. Is he likely to get past that, recover his power stroke? Is this comment overstated? I’m concerned about a left hander (or am I wrong on which side he hits from) with diminished power coming into Petco to play a spot which demands HR potential. Thanks.
December 13, 2005 at 4:53 pm
Here’s a note on Kenny Baugh from a friend of mine who’s a Rice alum and who’s baseball opinions I have come to respect … fyi …
He had a pretty good fastball (93-94), an excellent knuckle curve, an OK changeup, and very good control. He had some arm problems along the way and I’m not sure how well he came back, but his AAA numbers last year didn’t look too bad and I was surprised when he didn’t get a Sept callup.
December 13, 2005 at 4:56 pm
Peter - a name missing from your “Top 6″ list is Paul McAnulty … why no buzz about him? I’m still rooting for him
December 13, 2005 at 8:29 pm
Jonathan:
I believe the comment about Portland was due to some confusing wording you used about seeing Cameron there. No harm, no foul however. I have no problem being negative. I think this team is in some serious trouble, and all the “not sacrificing winning now for building the future” rhetoric is just a smokescreen for a team that has mediocre-at-best written all over it. All of this is to say that, yes, I think Towers could be out-gm’d by a bunch of monkeys on PCP (save the Giles signing, and I could have probably pulled that off…it was clear he wanted to stay). But I don’t think anything in Jesse’s post warrented such a derisive counter post. Now I feel like a nanny, so I’ll shut up.
But Cameron is much better than Freddy Guzman. I do enjoy watching him in Portland, but do you remember his time in San Diego? Pretty brutal.
December 13, 2005 at 8:34 pm
BA: “Baugh knows how to pitch. He has excellent command of his fastball and can work it to any quadrant of the strike zone. His curveball might be his best pitch and was more consistent than ever in 2003. He also has a good changeup, giving him the chance to have three average pitches. His makeup and work ethic are excellent.”
December 13, 2005 at 9:00 pm
From BA:
1. Carrillo
2. Kottaras
3. Barfield
4. Johnson
5. Headley
6. Hensley
7. Wells
8. McAnulty
9. Hundley
10.Guzman
December 14, 2005 at 11:32 am
LM & RBW:
Okay, I ‘ve never seen the guy, and when he wears a Padres uniform I’ll be rooting for him, but a guy with a BB/9 of 3.3 (and a K/BB of 1.8) in the AAA league that tends to favor pitchers doesn’t strike me as having either “excellent command” or “very good control.”
December 14, 2005 at 11:38 am
Oxspring’s numbers for comparison, pitching in the AAA league that favors hitter: 2.4 BB/9 and 3.0 K/BB.
December 14, 2005 at 11:41 am
Baugh is nearly two years younger, tho’, will be 27 in Feb.
December 15, 2005 at 8:55 am
Baugh’s good stuff left him at age 24, unfortunately.
He’s an arm for Portland who could be called up for an emergency start. Nothing wrong with that, but we are piling up arms at the bottom end of the performance curve. Will we make a real improvement in the starting rotation, or are we going to cross our fingers and pray that Woody, Eaton, and Park all improve greatly?
December 15, 2005 at 12:47 pm
“Will we make a real improvement in the starting rotation,…?”
I don’t think so for 2006. I think we’ll just have to live with it until 2007. I hope we will see Carrillo at that point and a big name FA pitcher.