Brian Lawrence and Jake Peavy were the only pitchers to start 30 or more games for the Padres. Woody Williams and Adam Eaton each started more than 20, with Tim Stauffer and Pedro Astacio being the only others to break double figures. We’ll look at Lawrence and Peavy today, Williams and Eaton on Wednesday, and Stauffer and Astacio on Friday.

The remainder of starts were split among Chan Ho Park, Darrell May, Tim Redding, Dennys Reyes, and Clay Hensley. The latter will be part of the reliever discussion, the rest stunk and there isn’t really anything to say about them beyond that.

[Previous entries in this series: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF ]

For the most part, Padres starters were middle of the pack, which isn’t too complimentary given their home park. I don’t have the home/road splits for starting pitchers exclusively, but overall the Pads had a 4.79 ERA away from Petco Park and a 3.52 ERA at home. The one thing Padres starters really didn’t do well was work deep into games. Only Jake Peavy averaged more than six innings per start. The two areas in which the Friars excelled were strikeouts and homers allowed. Thank Peavy for the first and Petco Park for the second.

Brian Lawrence

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

Doesn’t keep the ball on the ground or in the park as well as he once did, nor does he miss as many bats (not that he was ever a power pitcher). Concerns that Lawrence might suffer from the departure of Gary Bennett (3.20 ERA with Bennett behind the dish in 2003, 7.02 ERA with others) thankfully proved unnecessary. He’ll never be at the front of a rotation, but a guy like Lawrence, who can soak up innings and keep his club in the game, is a valuable member of any pitching staff.

Positives

• Did a better job preventing hits and keeping the ball in the yard than in 2004.
• Durable; made 30+ starts for the fourth straight season.

Negatives

• ERA went up in a year where league ERAs declined, while starting half his games in an extremely favorable environment for pitchers.
• Struggled away from Petco Park: 5.40 ERA over 19 starts; opponents hit .298/.352/.455 against him on the road.
• Career low GB/FB ratio (1.46), well down from a high of 2.51 in 2002.
• For the second straight season, the Bill James Handbook listed his as the slowest average fastball in the NL.

Outlook

Traded to the Washington Nationals for Vinny Castilla, Lawrence will play the last year of his contract in another pretty good pitchers’ park. He’ll continue to soak up innings at the back of a big-league rotation.

Jake Peavy

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

Since 1980, only five pitchers under age 25 have recorded a sub-3.00 ERA while striking out more than a batter per inning:

Player         Yr Age  IP    ERA  SO/9
Gooden,Dw      84  20 218   2.60 11.39
Perez,Ol       04  23 196   2.98 10.97
Prior,Ma       03  23 211.1 2.43 10.43
Fernandez,Si   85  23 170.1 2.80  9.51
Peavy,Ja       04  23 166.1 2.27  9.36

Gooden followed up his season with a Cy Young Award in 1985, Prior got hurt, Fernandez turned into a league-average pitcher, and we don’t know about Perez. Which path will Peavy follow? Who knows. But I will say that if he stays healthy, he’ll get more than the zero Cy Young Award votes he got last year.

Positives

• Improved most of his peripherals, including H/9, BB/9, and SO/9.
• Went over a half-inning deeper into games than in previous season.

Negatives

• Nagging injuries again kept him from making full complement of starts.
• Again received zero Cy Young Award votes.

Outlook

With the exception of ERA, Peavy’s numbers actually were stronger in 2005 than the previous season. His dominance and command are improving, as is his ability to work deep into games. There aren’t many better pitchers in all of baseball, and he doesn’t turn 25 until May 31. The scary thing about Peavy is that, health permitting, the best may be yet to come. Appreciate him every time he takes the mound; guys like Peavy don’t come around very often.