2005 in Review - Center Field
Mon, Dec 5, 2005
by Geoff Young
Hey, someone actually bought a Ducksnorts cap. Thanks, dude (or dudette), for making my day!
So we’re up to center field now in our review of the 2005 season. The Padres brought in hometown talent Dave Roberts last winter to help shore up the position, but how well did that plan work?
[Previous entries in this series: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF]
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB/PA | ISO | SEC | RC/27 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres center fielders | .282 | .360 | .461 | .104 | .178 | .319 | 5.70 |
| MLB rank | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, top 10; yellow, middle 10; red, bottom 10. |
|||||||
| FPct | RF | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres center fielders | .989 | 2.29 | |||||
| MLB average | .987 | 2.51 | |||||
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, above average; red, below average. |
|||||||
Center field was one of the few offensive bright spots in 2005 for the Padres. Paced by San Diego native Dave Roberts, the Friars actually got more production out of their center fielders than their left fielders last season. Xavier Nady, Brian Giles, Damian Jackson, Eric Young, Adam Hyzdu, and Mark Sweeney (just 1 inning) also saw time at the position.
Dave Roberts
Summary
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB/PA | ISO | XBH/H | RC/27 | OPS+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | .254 | .337 | .379 | .102 | .125 | .309 | 4.36 | 88 |
| 2005 | .275 | .356 | .428 | .110 | .153 | .327 | 5.08 | 114 |
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend. |
||||||||
| FPct | RF | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberts | .992 | 2.39 | ||||||
| MLB average | .987 | 2.51 | ||||||
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, above average; red, below average. |
||||||||
Expectations
From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:
Roberts is in over his head as a leadoff hitter for a club that expects to contend. He is better cast as a fourth outfielder who can do a lot of little things, but asking him to be the catalyst of a big-league offense is probably a bit much.
Positives
- Exceeded all expectations on offense, getting on base and driving the ball at unprecedented rates despite playing half his games in an extremely poor hitting environment.
- Great presence at the top of the lineup and in the clubhouse.
Negatives
- He was hurt a lot, playing in just 115 games; this may have diminished the effect of his running game and possibly his defense.
- Played below average defense in center field, displaying a poor first step and weak throwing arm; had trouble chasing down balls in the spacious gap at Petco Park. As expected, he was a downgrade from Jay Payton, who had posted the second-highest range factor among big-league center fielders in 2004.
- His offensive performance came out of nowhere at age 33; although it was a great story, there is no reason to expect he’ll be able to post those kinds of numbers again.
Outlook
The Padres traded Xavier Nady to the New York Mets for Mike Cameron in November to improve their center field defense. Despite Roberts’ unexpected offensive outburst, he did not display the range required of a center fielder at Petco Park. As of this writing, Roberts would platoon with Ben Johnson in left field. However, Roberts’ name has been mentioned as part of rumored deals with the Boston Red Sox, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him moved before spring. Roberts is a tweener who doesn’t field well enough to play center every day and who doesn’t hit well enough to play left. His best role is probably as a fourth outfielder who can fill in at either position for short periods of time and provide an occasional spark off the bench.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
December 5, 2005 at 10:23 am
Didn’t realize that Roberts was having much better year than I thought.
Can we expect Mike Cameron to be at least as productive as Roberts was at the plate last season?
If so, that’s a better deal already.
I’m still hoping that Ben Johnson will get lots of chances to start. Maybe a la Kelly Johnson in ATL.
BTW, I noticed Brad Baker in the ATL roster. Is this the same guy that the Padres let go?
Looks like NY Mets is forgoing the FA catchers for LoDuca. Guess Ramon and Bengie were hoping for bigger offers.
December 5, 2005 at 11:07 am
Rumormongering: Indications are the Cubs may get involved in a multi-player deal. One report of a rumored trade: pitcher Jerome Williams, outfielder Corey Patterson and second baseman Todd Walker to Texas for power-hitting second baseman Alfonso Soriano and outfielder Kevin Mench.
– Chicago Tribune
But then the same paper says: Teams bidding on A.J. Burnett should not count out a sneak attack from the Cubs, who then would send the surgically repaired Kerry Wood, Todd Walker, prospects and maybe some cash to Texas for Alfonso Soriano and Kevin Mench.
– Chicago Tribune
So maybe they’re just guessing?
December 5, 2005 at 11:21 am
I’m pretty sure Baker got let go as a minor league FA.. also he did not do that well this year as he fell apart and lost the closer’s job in portland
December 5, 2005 at 11:39 am
Yep, Didi, it’s the same Baker:
http://www.reformer.com/Storie.....04,00.html
December 5, 2005 at 12:03 pm
I’ll go out on a limb and say a healthy Cameron will be more productive than Roberts 2005, who had a career year in 2005, by the way, not just a very good year. If you look at BP’s Translated Batting, Cameron has the same Career OBP number as Roberts, but blows him away by 80 points in SLG. Cameron also is a very good base stealer, career success rate of 79% and has stolen 20-30+ in pretty much every full major league season.
December 5, 2005 at 3:39 pm
Rosenthal’s latest:
The Indians met Monday morning with Rick Thurman, the representative for Trevor Hoffman, and appear ready to sign the free-agent closer to a three-year deal in the $21 million to $24 million range. Hoffman is expected to take a physical for the Indians on Tuesday.
The Padres believe they still have a chance of retaining Hoffman, and the Red Sox could make a late bid. Red Sox president Larry Lucchino was with the Padres when Hoffman helped the team reach the 1998 World Series.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5141070
Enjoy the money Trevor, it was nice having you around all these years.
December 5, 2005 at 4:13 pm
Trevor, we hardly knew yee…
Castilla, Vinny: Mexico
Huerta, Edgar: Mexico
Peavy, Jake: United States
MLB.com has posted the list of players who will participate in the World Baseball Classic. Above are the Padres in the mix. I don’t care about the top two, but the third scares me, for obvious reasons. I’m just saying is all.
If you get a chance to look at the list, you should. Hilarious entries including Mike Piazza and Frank Catalonatto playing for the Italian team. Isn’t Mike Piazza from Pennsylvania?
December 5, 2005 at 5:05 pm
Maybe Tommy Lasorda inducted him into La Cosa Nostra.
It’s probably the same rules as the Olympics, meaning if there’s an Italian somewhere in the family tree you’re eligible. How else can Italy field a team?
December 5, 2005 at 5:14 pm
I bet the Padres would match $21M/3.
Not saying I’d be elated about it.
December 6, 2005 at 6:57 am
Yup. I did some searching, and the rules are even more relaxed than the Olympics. Basically, if the countruy can claim some acceptable reason to the ruling commision, it can claim the player. So Italy’s reason was probably something like “what is a baseball?” And the commission said, “whew…ok…well, you get Piazza and any other guy with a vaguely Italianate last name.”
3/21 for Hoffy is still high, but, I agree, dangerously acceptable-seeming to the front office. Can his marketing value, at this point, be that high, vis a vis us being more competitve team?
December 6, 2005 at 7:15 am
http://www.nctimes.com/article.....223125.txt
One source says the Indians could sign Hoffman as early as Wednesday. Red Sox, Orioles, Braves, and Tigers also are identified as having talked to him
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
More Hoffman updates. Padres also signed Jack Cust. That is a great pickup.
Also, the catching market isn’t quite as lucrative as some might have expected it would be:
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/9079490
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2249369
December 6, 2005 at 7:31 am
Pat: Regarding Cameron vs Roberts, I don’t think you’re going out on a limb at all. Here are their respective OPS+ over each of the last 4 seasons, in descending order. I threw in PA to show how much PT each player received, and also RC/27 to give another measure of offense.
Cameron:
Yr PA OPS+ RC/27
02 640 114 4.97
05 343 113 5.70
03 612 106 4.99
04 562 104 5.00
Roberts:
Yr PA OPS+ RC/27
05 480 114 5.08
02 479 98 4.51
04 371 88 4.36
03 440 74 3.40
What Roberts did last year is unbelievably out of line with his previous numbers. The last time he’d had an OPS over 720 was in 2000 at Buffalo, when he hit .292/.370/.424. Actually, when you consider that Roberts was a 28-yo with a sub-800 OPS at Triple-A, he’s had a pretty remarkable big-league career.
December 6, 2005 at 8:48 am
Thanks for the numbers, Geoff. I feel much better about Cameron from numbers side. I just hope his eyesight would be as good as before the accident.
I don’t think Trevor is coming back. Looks like KT is going to have to beef up the middle reliever core. Anybody knows if Joey Eischen is still available?
December 6, 2005 at 10:40 am
From Rotoworld:
A source told the New York Daily News that David Wells would likely become a Dodger, not a Padre, today.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Red Sox could then trade catcher Doug Mirabelli to the Padres for Mark Loretta
What the heck? Loretta for Mirabelli straight up?
December 6, 2005 at 11:05 am
And then the rumors got silly. I dunno, Anthony, this one doesn’t make any sense at all.
December 6, 2005 at 11:30 am
Hey Geoff. Yeah, it’s that whole tongue-in-cheek doesn’t translate to the internet thing. I was being somewhat facetious about going out on a limb. Really the only way it might backfire is if Cameron is not recovered from that collision. Otherwise, even if he experiences further age related decline, he will be better than Roberts, who is almost certain to return to something closer to his career level.
December 6, 2005 at 11:30 am
Apparently the Red Sox pitcher that’s going to the Padres is Tim Wakefield. Why else would Doug Mirabelli be traded? I think those two comes in a package. Or maybe the Padres should trade for the last out ball from the World Series.
Isn’t Jhonny Estrada available from the Braves? I thought he was being shopped around.
December 6, 2005 at 11:35 am
Pat: Gotcha. Still an interesting question to ask. We’ve been largely assuming that Cameron would be an upgrade on offense over Roberts, and it’s good to see that assumption validated.
Didi: Wakefield? I don’t know if I could make it through a season with a rotation consisting at least in part of him, Park, and Woody Williams. What is Juan Eichelberger doing these days?
December 6, 2005 at 11:46 am
USA Today mentions Loretta for Mirabelli, and also Sean Burroughs to TB for Dewon Brazelton:
http://tinyurl.com/8bh7a
December 6, 2005 at 12:41 pm
Mirabelli is roughly a league average hitter. Lo is a little above average. Mirabelli is well below average with the glove (according to at least a couple fielding metrics), while Lo is a little above average. I don’t see the point unless the Padres think Barfield can step in and hit and field above league average as a rookie in 2006. Even then, I’m not sure why they’d want Doug.
I really think Burroughs has more upside than Brazelton at this point. At least Sean had a few good years in the minors. Dewon hasn’t even done that.
December 6, 2005 at 12:46 pm
From the Star-Telegram:
“The Rangers pushed again on both Barry Zito and A.J. Burnett on Monday, but may have to settle for Adam Eaton and Matt Morris.
…
The Rangers also met with the San Diego Padres to talk about getting Eaton in return for catcher Gerald Laird and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.”
It’s still an interesting deal…
December 6, 2005 at 1:10 pm
I would take Wakefield in about 5 seconds if that rumor is indeed true. He’s got a rubber arm (obviously, knuckleballer) and pitches great in big games.
Didi, where did you see that rumor?
December 6, 2005 at 1:12 pm
Brazelton?? Ugh. That’s a 25-cent head right there.
December 6, 2005 at 1:13 pm
While we’re all waiting for something to happen, here’s a nifty tool I found at BA:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/execdb/
It’s a database of big-league executives dating back to 1950. You can view by year or by organization, and it includes GMs as well as scouting directors. Oh, and it’s searchable. Big fun.
December 6, 2005 at 1:38 pm
Awesome link, Geoff. I now have something else to distract me at work!
December 6, 2005 at 1:57 pm
The 1090 guys were saying Loretta for Mirabelli is a salary dump to free up some extra cash to sign Trevor. I suppose that makes sense if you want to spend that much on Trevor.
If Loretta has to go I’m ok with Mirabelli. He’s been a backup but from what I’ve seen he could start for most teams. I doubt the Sox will trade Wakefield, he’s fairly cheap and eats a lot of innings for them. He’s very popular in Boston as well.
December 6, 2005 at 1:59 pm
Seattle might be interested in hometown product Eaton:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/.....ari06.html
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c.....ari06.html
December 6, 2005 at 2:36 pm
Guys, I was being silly with the whole Wakefield thing. Of course, I didn’t think the Mirabelli-Loretta thing was serious either.
I’m sure Mirabelli doesn’t have any value to the Padres. Isn’t Dave Ross already on the roster? I don’t think trading Loretta is worth having Hoffman back…unless Barfield really is that good.
No Dewon please. I’d rather keep Sean around.
Eaton for Laird and Gonzales would not be bad as long as the Padres don’t also trade Stauffer away.
I guess KT really did run away with the circus when he was younger. This is quite a juggling act he is performing.
December 6, 2005 at 3:15 pm
I think 3 years/ $21 million is worth it for Trevor from a business point of view. We get so focused on the baseball side we sometimes forget that the majority of the town doesn’t have any idea what the stats say. The “casual fanbase” buys an awful lot of tickets and must be appeased. I am not in favor of letting Lo go for Wells, let alone Mirabelli. Nor am I so sure Wells would accept the trade. No, he doesn’t have no-trade powers. But he does have the threat of retirement. Historically, losing pisses David off…and the Dodgers will do a lot of it next year barring some bigger changes.
December 6, 2005 at 3:44 pm
Good point, Rich, and one that, as you say, often is overlooked. This was driven home to me the other night at the season-ticketholder meeting just listening to the way folks talk about the team. They’re smart people who think about baseball in a totally different way from many of us. They also pay the Padres’ bills. I’m sure the team recognizes that and will do what it can to keep from alienating them.
December 6, 2005 at 4:19 pm
Trevor is worth about $4M/year on the field. Do you really believe he is worth $3M/year in advertising? And to be fair, his on the field value will likely fall each year, so you’re suggesting that as his performance tails off his value in bringing fans to the park will increase enough to off-set it.
I don’t get it.
December 6, 2005 at 4:54 pm
It’s not about advertising per se, but public relations. This isn’t Ryan Klesko or Phil Nevin. It would be very difficult for the Padres not to at least come close to what Cleveland supposedly is offering.
December 6, 2005 at 4:54 pm
I’m with Mr. Wade on this one. NO player is worth $2 mil/$3 mil per year for marketing/PR purpose. Look at all those money the AL East has paid to players with name recognitions. Look at the way Klesko’s and Nevin’s contract has turned out for the Padres.
I’m willing to give Hoffman an exception for all his work in a Padre uniform, but I won’t be willing to pay him $9 million extra dollars just so the fan is appeased. The fact is if the team is winning, losing Hoffman will only bring nostalgia not turn away fans from the ballpark.
The Padres need to find that one future closer anyway and transitioning Scott Linebrink into that role will lead to auditioning and evaluating the talent in the reliever core of the farm system much quicker than having Hoffman block the way for 3 more seasons.
December 6, 2005 at 4:59 pm
Other news:
Grady Little is the new skipper up the freeway.
Is he that much better than Jim Tracy? Here’s to hoping he’ll do a better job than Tracy in benching Jason Phillips and using Hee Seop Choi at first base.
December 6, 2005 at 6:16 pm
Didi: Here’s an interesting question for you and anyone else who cares to ponder it. Linebrink is under contract through 2007. I know we’re getting way ahead of ourselves, but if he takes over as closer and turns out to be as good as many of us think he will be, what kind of a money do you suppose it would take to ensure that he stuck around in that role for a while? I wonder if it would be any less than what Hoffman is being offered now. And if the Padres were to balk at giving Linebrink that kind of money, then what? This is way hypothetical but I just wonder…
December 6, 2005 at 6:37 pm
Trevor does mean a lotin money at the gate. And he means more on a losing team than on a winning one. Don’t forget, it is not just about straight ticket sales. There is corporate money to think about. There is public perception of return on investment on Prop. C. Mike Cameron doesn’t mean squat to most 8 year olds, and thus to their parents sometimes. Brian Giles means some, but not like Trevor. Hoffy IS the Padres to a lot of casual fans.
If these players salaries didn’t translate to the bottom line, they wouldn’t get paid those salaries.
December 6, 2005 at 9:01 pm
This is the point I was trying to make with Peter last week. Trevor brings more than baseball value to the Padres. Is it 3 million as RBW suggested, or is it really 2-2.5, assuming the Padres value him at 5 million baseball wise? That seems to be a safe assumption and a reasonable price to pay to bring him back. Like Geoff, I heard lots of calls of Trevor last Thursday at the season ticket holders’ meeting. There was this middle-aged woman down the row from me that would not shut up about giving him his money. I may feel strongly about not overpaying to keep a 38 year old closer, but it is clear, at least to me, that the average Padre fan feels much differently. 2/13 with a vesting option seems like a decent risk.
The big question is whether Trevor will get over his hurt feelings and come back or will he take the money and run? We will see tomorrow.
December 6, 2005 at 9:26 pm
LOL, Bruce, thanks for the flashback. That lady was one row up from me, about three seats to my left.
Here’s another question: What would the Padres do with the the money they’d save on Hoffman? They would have to spend it on someone, or there’d be all kinds of complaints about cheap owners not doing what they can to win. I’m not saying that kind of thinking is necessarily right, just that it would happen. Is there anyone on the market right now who could take the money that would be spent on Hoffman and create better value for the Padres? I’m not sure there is.
December 6, 2005 at 9:35 pm
Geoff
Octavio Dotel is still out there. He’s coming off some serious elbow problems. I wonder what type of money he will command in a market where Scott Erye and Bobby Howry got more guaranteed money than the Padres original offer to Hoffman.
Even though he’s somewhat attractive at the right price, I would rather see the $$$ used to upgrade starting pitching.
December 6, 2005 at 10:05 pm
Ugh, when we sign players because they “draw,” they draw for a few games. WINNING draws long-term. We can’t let a few loud-mouth empassioned season-ticket holders run the show. And Rich, I’m trying to be beligerent, but that lady, may cancel her tickets if we don’t sign, but how many more people will sign up if we’re winning.
Now what IS interesting, is the UT is reporting that Cleveland’s offer is closer to 2 years $14-16m guarrenteed (not the 21-24 we thought). I don’t know if they’re right or not. But all of a sudden, it’s short enough for the Padres to consider…
ALSO…
I LOVE the Eaton for Laird & A. Gonzales deal.
December 6, 2005 at 10:06 pm
The “loud mouth” comment is NOT meant to be disparraging, but to imply the old saying, “A squeaky wheel gets oiled.”
December 6, 2005 at 10:15 pm
Chris, good points. I think Dotel is an excellent idea; unfortunately, everyone is looking at him (I’ve seen Rangers, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and Cardinals mentioned today) and I suspect he’ll get a pretty good chunk of cash.
I’d love an upgrade in starting pitching, but with two spots tied up in Chan Ho Park and Woody Williams, that’s going to be tough to swing. The going rate for mediocre guys in their mid-30s (Byrd, Loaiza) is a shade over $7M/yr. Even if the Padres could shell out that kind of money, they’re still committed to Park and Williams.
(And at this point, I would like to stop and just say how grateful I will be when all those contracts are off the books after 2006.)
The starting pitcher market stinks. Kevin Millwood, Matt Morris, Jarrod Washburn, and Jeff Weaver probably are the best of the lot. All will be overpaid. I’m interested to see what Pedro Astacio ends up getting.
December 6, 2005 at 10:42 pm
Park won’t start for us…
How ’bout this for “interesting:”
Quoting from an MLB.com article:
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/.....;fext=.jsp
Word around the Winter Meetings at the Wyndham Anatole hotel is that the Indians have offered Hoffman a three-year deal in the $21 million range. As of 7:30 p.m. CT, the club was waiting to hear back from Hoffman.
Though general manager Mark Shapiro wouldn’t comment, an Indians club official confirmed the Tribe sent head athletic trainer Lonnie Soloff to Hoffman’s home in Del Mar, Calif., on Tuesday to give Hoffman a physical.
Before dispatching Soloff to California, the club had made a two-year offer worth a reported $14-16 million to Hoffman, who owns 436 career saves, just 42 shy of Lee Smith’s big league record of 478.
But the 38-year-old Hoffman is looking for a three-year deal, which the Indians are apparently willing to give after Soloff’s visit.
***
How interesting is it that the Indians have:
1. Offered at all
2. Dispatched the team physician to SoCal to give Hoffy a physical
3. Offered a 2-yr guar. (not a 3-yr?) contract but are supposedly “willing to give” a three-year offer after their doc. gives the physical
4. That they’ve been able to keep all these details under wraps…
That sounds like an all-but-done deal.
December 7, 2005 at 7:19 am
From the providence journal…
The Sox are actively shopping David Wells…and Matt Clement. Wells would prefer to go to his home town of San Diego, but the Padres appear closer to signing free-agent lefty Kenny Rogers instead… For the most part, the Sox are interested in relief help in exchange for Wells. They’d like former Red Sox prospect Justin Duchscherer from the A’s and have targeted young right-hander Jonathan Broxton from the Dodgers.
…
Clement’s market is less clear, but there are teams talking about him. The Rangers have an offer on the table for free-agent Matt Morris but are searching to see what other starters might be made available… The Sox may have to move quickly to find a taker for Clement, since the signing of Burnett by Toronto means the Blue Jays now are free to shop Miguel Batista, who flopped as a closer last season but still has value to teams as a relatively affordably priced starter. While the Red Sox and Padres no longer seem to be able to put together something involving Wells, the clubs continue to discuss a deal that would send Mirabelli in exchange for second baseman Mark Loretta.
Kenny Rogers? The useless Doug Mirabelli? Dave Roberts staying put? ALL BAD NEWS…
December 7, 2005 at 9:26 am
I think there’s a FA catcher on the market who might come back to San Diego if the Padres have Trevor money still lying around. Since the Mets have traded for Lo Duca, it certainly appears as if the catcher market is not what the reliever/closer market is. Bring back Ramon anyone?
December 7, 2005 at 11:12 am
No thanks, unless as a 1-yr arb. deal…