Operation Center Field: Acquiring Targets

by Geoff Young on Nov 14, 2007 (66) Comments

Now that we’ve identified potential trade targets, let’s move to the next logical step and consider what it might cost to acquire said targets. This exercise consists in determining a) what your partner needs and b) what you (i.e., the Padres) have to offer.

The order of these two, as I’ve learned over many years of playing fantasy baseball, is crucial. If you don’t have a strong grasp of your partner’s needs, and you base your offers solely on what you’re willing to give up, you’ll get nowhere fast because, well, that’s just the way life works. By and large, people act in their own best interest. Provide them with goods or services that serve that interest, and then you’re onto something.

To the targets…

David DeJesus

What do the Royals need? Snarky answer: Everything. Useful answer: It depends on where they see themselves in the success cycle. In Kansas City’s case, the organization features some intriguing young players — Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, Billy Butler, Zack Greinke, ex-Padre Joakim Soria, maybe a few others depending on your taste — that now have big-league experience under their belts. The fact that this club went out and signed Gil Meche to crazy money last winter tells me that the Royals probably don’t see themselves as rebuilding. In terms that Padres fans will understand, think more v. 2003 than v. 1971.

In other words, I imagine that the Royals will want some big-league or at least big-league-ready talent, preferably youngish. Maybe someone with flaws but upside — remember that they traded for Milton Bradley before the Padres did (and then nixed it due to the oblique injury). Maybe someone like Paul McAnulty. Not necessarily McAnulty, but you get the idea.

So, where do the Royals need the most help? Shortstop (.260/.280/.357 in 2007) and left field (.264/.315/.345) would seem to be logical starting points. So would starting pitching (4.88 ERA). The Padres don’t have shortstops or starting pitchers to give away, but they do have left fielders (including the aforementioned McAnulty).

Problem is, most teams recognize that all else being equal (stupid phrase), it’s not wise to move a center fielder for a left fielder — defensive spectrum and what-not. In fact, a quick perusal of the Royals’ farm system reveals an abundance of McAnulty types waiting for their chance.

Bill James has written at length about this sort of thing, but you see the issue. Every franchise has good-hitting corner outfielders, which makes them mostly unmarketable unless they are really young or really good. Look at what Jack Cust fetched last season; great story, but teams weren’t banging down doors trying to acquire him — if they wanted him, they shouldn’t have released him the first place, right?

Anyway.

Seems to me a secondary need for the Royals might be a catcher. John Buck has shown flashes, but he just might be the new Jason LaRue (which is kind of funny because the old LaRue is Buck’s backup — learn from the master, I guess), in which case maybe Kansas City wants to hedge its bets.

The Padres have some catchers. Colt Morton is the most big-league ready, but he’s even more LaRue-like than Buck is, and less proven. Mitch Canham is too far away, which leaves Nick Hundley, who might make a good fit for the Royals.

We’re moving in the right direction here. Maybe something along the lines of McAnulty (or Will Venable?), Hundley, and possibly a low-level prospect for DeJesus. I don’t know that this would be enough. Would I do it if I were the Royals? Well, I’m not sure; then again, the idea of sticking Joey Gathright in center every day doesn’t excite me at all, so it’s hard for me to know what they’re thinking.

We can debate names, but this is the tack I think I would take. I’d try floating a young catcher, a young corner outfielder, and possibly a prospect, and see where things go from there.

Ryan Church

Moving from DeJesus to DeChurch (sorry, couldn’t resist)… The Nationals, despite their surprising success in 2007, presumably understand that they still have a lot of work to do. At the big-league level they are strong at, um, they have Ryan Zimmerman. Maybe Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena. Heck, Church is one of their best players; why do they want to move him again? Oh, right, because supposedly Washington might make a play for Torii Hunter.

If the Nats sign Hunter and decide that this makes Church available, then I don’t understand how they think and it will be difficult for me to finish the exercise. Their greatest needs at the big-league level appear to be behind the plate (.245/.325/.354), in left field (.245/.316/.396), and in the starting rotation.

Wait, if the Nationals have a need in left, then why would they move Church? Ah, maybe to make room for Pena? Here we go again with the defensive spectrum thing. The more I look at this, the less certain I am that there’s even a fit here. Washington should be able to fill its corner outfield spots internally, which leaves catcher and starting pitcher. The Padres don’t have any of the latter to give, and I don’t think they have a catcher good enough to land Church.

It’s a nice idea, but I don’t see a fit here. Next…

Brian Barton

Stan Ridgway has a great song called “The Roadblock” (I can’t find a video, so you’ll have to settle for “Don’t Box Me In”), which has nothing to do with Barton but whose title is a nice metaphor for Barton’s situation, stuck behind Grady Sizemore.

The Indians are in a very different place than our first two potential partners. They are coming off 96 wins and a postseason appearance. They have expectations, and so do their fans.

Cleveland has a few needs at the big-league level, notably at second base (.252/.289/.350), at third base (.258/.320/.407) and in left field (.259/.315/.404). Ex-Padre Josh Barfield was a disaster at second, and he eventually lost his job to Asdrubal Cabrera. Still, Barfield is young and is a decent bet to rebound. The Indians are a well-run organization, and they aren’t likely to panic based on one disappointing season.

Third base is fraught with irony. Cleveland moved Kevin Kouzmanoff in the Barfield deal to clear room for Andy Marte, who promptly lost the job to Casey Blake, a 33-year-old right fielder. Marte is only 24 and was recently well regarded, but right now, he’s looking like a guy with more of a past than a future. Would the Indians have interest in a guy like Chase Headley? Possibly, although he should fetch more than Barton.

Left field? Jason Michaels isn’t a long-term solution. He isn’t really a short-term solution either. Internal candidates for the job would seem to be Ben Francisco, Jason Cooper, and Barton. You know what? I’m seeing the same problem here as I did with the Nationals. How are any of the Padres’ available corner outfielders better than what the Indians already have? And now that I look at him more closely, I see that Barton played more right than center last year, which kills the whole “Roadblock” thing I had working.

Too bad, it’s a good tune…

Coco Crisp

First, we have to address the disconnect between what the Boston media/fans want and what the front office will do. When you hear nonsense like Jake Peavy for Mike Lowell and then actually see Doug Mirabelli for Josh Bard, Cla Meredith, and cash, there’s only one sensible course of action: Ignore the Boston media and fans.

That little rant out of the way, what do the Red Sox need? Well, they just swept the World Series, so not much. They could use help at shortstop (most teams can) and in center (this will be resolved internally by Jacoby Ellsbury); beyond that, they have no obvious weaknesses. Yeah, Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield are old, but they’ve been old for a while and it doesn’t seem to matter. Eventually it will, but who knows when.

With Lowell filing for free agency, Boston has a potential opening at third base and no real in-house options. Lowell and Alex Rodriguez are the only third basemen worth pursuing on the open market. Lowell could re-sign, while Rodriguez, after his upstaging of the Red Sox during the World Series, probably is not an option. They could make a play for the Marlins’ Miguel Cabrera or possibly move Kevin Youkilis back across the diamond in a pinch.

The point is, there’s a potential need here. Can the Padres fill it? Yes, but… defensive spectrum notwithstanding, Kouzmanoff and Headley both should be worth more than Crisp. By a lot. The Red Sox have an intriguing middle infield prospect who played at Double-A last year, Jed Lowrie. I wonder if Headley for Crisp and Lowrie might work? My gut tells me that’s not enough because, despite Crisp’s nice defensive numbers in ’07, I still don’t trust him as anything more than a Jay Payton stopgap.

I could live with Crisp in center until the Padres find someone better, but I can’t see parting with a big-league ready third baseman to get him. In the current market, a guy like Headley — should the Pads decide to move him — should fetch more than a weak-hitting center fielder with a spotty defensive track record.

Luke Scott

I had Jacque Jones here, but he’s since been traded. Also, the Astros have acquired a center fielder, leaving Scott in no-man’s land. I’m still not sure about his defense (he’s playing left field this winter in Venezuela), but the guy can hit. Scott is not our first option, but he belongs in the discussion.

The Astros have needs almost everywhere and shouldn’t be looking to move Scott. They could use catching help but don’t seem to know it (actually I see now that they have a kid, J.R. Towles, that dominated the Texas League in ’07); they need a second baseman, but Matt Antonelli is too much to give for Scott; like everyone else in baseball, they could use more starting pitching, but we already know where the Padres stand on that front.

I don’t know why Houston would make Scott available, I don’t know that he can play center field (he has five big-league games there, compared to four for Terrmel Sledge), and I don’t know that the Padres have any pieces that Astros would want that aren’t an exorbitant amount to pay for Scott. That’s a lot of things I don’t know, which tells me maybe it’s best to pass…

Winter Leagues

  • Javelinas 17, Saguaros 5 (box | recap). Venable, batting eighth and starting in left field, went 1-for-4 with a strikeout; in the comps I’m working up for the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual, Venable’s 2007 at San Antonio is similar to the big-league seasons of Melky Cabrera, Coco Crisp, and Shannon Stewart. Two Padres pitchers worked in this one, which you’d think would be a disaster in a game where the Saguaros gave up 17 runs. All the damage came in the first five innings, though; Will Startup allowed a single in an inning and a third, striking out one. Jonathan Ellis worked a scoreless ninth, allowing a single, walking one, and fanning two.
  • Licey 4, Estrellas 1 (box). Yordany Ramirez entered in the seventh as a pinch-runner and scored his team’s third run; he then took over in left field and popped out to first the next inning.
  • Gigantes 7, Escogido 6 (box). Vince Sinisi continues his torrid hitting; he went 4-for-5 in this one (the last hit came off ex-Padre Dario Veras).
    Navojoa 7, Culiacan 3 (box). Oscar Robles singled and walked twice in five plate appearances. Luis Cruz, starting in center and batting third, went 1-for-5. On the other side, Karim Garcia and Ruben Rivera bat third and fourth for Culiacan. They were the #8 and #5 prospects in John Sickels’ 1996 Minor League Scouting Notebook, ahead of guys like Bob Abreu and Vlad Guerrero. What a colossal waste of talent.
  • Obregon 4, Mazatlan 1 (box). Brian Myrow, in the #4 hole, went doubled and walked in four trips to the plate. Incidentally, the 2008 CHONE projections for hitters are now available, and Myrow checks in at .263/.353/.419; this is about the same as CHONE projects for Mark DeRosa, for whatever that’s worth.

Whoomp, there it is…

Tuesday Links (13 Nov 07)

by Geoff Young on Nov 13, 2007 (48) Comments

I’ve got nothing today, so we’ll hit the links early this week:

Winter Leagues

  • Scottsdale 11, Saguaros 7 (box). Will Venable, batting sixth and again playing right field, doubled and walked in five trips to the plate. Nick Hundley went 0-for-3 with a walk and three strikeouts; I’m working on the minor-league chapter of the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual and one thing I’m doing is providing comps to current big leaguers based on performance relative to league — Hundley’s 2007 at San Antonio is a lot like Jermaine Dye’s in Chicago. Matt Antonelli, batting behind Venable and Hundley, started at second and went 0-for-3 with a walk. Antonelli gets some love at Hardball Times this morning. Nice change from the usual abuse he takes.
  • Escogido 7, Aguilas 1 (box). Vince Sinisi, batting third and playing left field, singled in four at-bats. The man for whom Sinisi was traded, Freddy Guzman, bats leadoff for Escogido. Ex-Padres Juan Melo and Raul Casanova follow Sinisi. Yep, Melo plays first base and bats cleanup.
  • Licey 12, Gigantes 5 (box). Yordany Ramirez got the start in center and went 3-for-4 out of the #8 hole. Licey collected 21 hits in this one, paced by four from D’Angelo Jimenez. Scouring these box scores is like touring a wasteland of failed Padres prospects.

Happy, happy…

Weekend Winter Wrapup (12 Nov 07)

by Geoff Young on Nov 12, 2007 (19) Comments

Thanks to the Steve Poltz interview and my jaunt to Vegas for BlogWorld (recap at Knuckle Curve for those interested), we’ve got a little catching up to do:

Wednesday, November 7

  • Saguaros 6, Javelinas 2 (box | recap). Will Venable, playing right field and batting eighth, doubled and homered in four at-bats. Jonathan Ellis worked a perfect eighth, striking out one.
  • Escogido 6, Azucareros 1 (box). Welcome to the Vince Sinisi show. Batting third and playing left field, Sinisi singled and homered twice in five trips to the plate.
  • Navojoa 4, Mochis 3 (box). Oscar Robles, in his usual #2 spot, singled and walked in four plate appearances.
  • Culiacan 8, Mexicali 7 (box). Jared Wells entered in the seventh inning of a 2-2 tie. Wells gave up three runs on three hits in two-thirds of an inning; the big blow was a two-run homer by former big-leaguer Reggie Taylor.
  • Hermosillo 3, Mazatlan 1 (box). Brian Myrow, batting cleanup, went 2-for-3 with a double and a walk.

Thursday, November 8

  • Saguaros 9, Scottsdale 1 (box | recap). Venable, playing right field and batting fourth, went 0-for-4 with a walk and three strikeouts. Matt Antonelli, starting at DH and batting eighth, went 0-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout; he’s hitting .240/.345/.300. Nick Hundley went 3-for-4 with a double out of the #9 hole.
  • Navojoa 6, Mochis 4 (box). Robles singled twice and walked in five trips to the plate.
  • Mazatlan 7, Hermosillo 4 (box). Myrow went 0-for-2 with two walks and a strikeout.

Friday, November 9

  • Scottsdale 10, Saguaros 3 (box | recap). Venable batted sixth in this one and singled in four at-bats; he’s playing a lot of right field. John Hudgins (7.20 ERA, 6.30 K/9) started and gave up five runs on four hits and a walk in three innings; the right-hander fanned three and allowed a solo homer to Tampa Bay’s Reid Brignac. Will Startup (0.87 ERA, 6.97 K/9) worked a 10-pitch sixth, retiring all three batters he faced, including two strikeouts.
  • Estrellas 8, Escogido 1 (box). Sinisi singled twice in three at-bats.
  • Mochis 3, Mazatlan 2 (box). Myrow singled twice and walked in four plate appearances.
  • Obregon 5, Mexicali 3 (box). Wells (6.00 ERA, 6.60 K/9) allowed one hit and two walks (both intentional) in one inning of work; no runs were charged to him, but both runners he inherited came around to score.
  • Navojoa 6, Hermosillo 5 (box). Robles went 3-for-5. Luis Cruz, starting in center and batting third (!), went 0-for-4 with a walk.
  • Lara 3, Caracas 2 (box). Paul Abraham faced one batter in the ninth and allowed the winning run to score on a fielders choice play to shortstop Omar Vizquel.

Saturday, November 10

  • Phoenix 5, Saguaros 2 (box | recap). Venable (.234/.272/.416) went 0-for-4 out of the #6 hole. Hundley (.286/.366/.429) went 0-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout. Ellis (6.10 ERA, 7.84 K/9) coughed up two runs in the seventh to take the loss.
  • Escogido 14, Licey 5 (box). Sinisi went 0-for-4 with a walk; what a bum.
  • Navojoa 6, Hermosillo 5 (box). Robles went 0-for-4 with a strikeout. Cruz made his second straight start in center field and again batted third. He homered, doubled, and walked in five trips to the plate; Cruz finished the game at shortstop and committed an error in the 12th that almost cost Navojoa the game.
  • Mazatlan 3, Mochis 1 (box). Myrow singled twice and walked three times in five plate appearances.
  • Caracas 10, Magallenes 6 (box). Abraham struck out the side in order in the ninth; among his victims was former Houston Astros outfielder Richard Hidalgo, who’d homered earlier in the game.

Sunday, November 11

  • Azucareros 8, Licey 2 (box). Yordany Ramirez (.296/.296/.370) saw his first action since a Nov. 6 pinch-running appearance; he started in left field and went 0-for-4 out of the #8 hole.
  • Aguilas 8, Escogido 7 (box). Sinisi singled and struck out in five at-bats; He’s hitting .328/.373/.623 for Escogido.
  • Mazatlan 11, Mochis 2 (box). Myrow (.351/.519/.526) went 1-for-5 with a two-run homer for Mazatlan.
  • Navojoa 5, Hermosillo 4 (box). Robles singled and doubled in five at-bats; he’s batting .322/.398/.466 for Navojoa. Cruz again started in center and went 1-for-4; he’s now at .221/.299/.375.
  • Caracas 10, Magallenes 6 (box). Busy weekend for Abraham (2.38 ERA, 8.74 K/9), who struck out the only batter he faced to pick up the win; he’s fanned each of the last four batters he’s faced.

That’s all for now; more as it happens…

Friday Links (9 Nov 07)

by Geoff Young on Nov 09, 2007 (88) Comments

Greetings from Vegas…

As always, we’ve got more links over at del.icio.us. If you’ve got an account, you can add me to your network; I guess that’s what the cool kids do. Happy Friday, yo…

Interview: Steve Poltz, Part 1

by Geoff Young on Nov 08, 2007 (95) Comments

Troubadour Steve Poltz (poltz.com) has been a mainstay of the San Diego music scene for the better part of two decades, starting with the Rugburns (“Hitchhiker Joe,” “Me and Eddie Vedder”), later collaborations with Jewel (including her monster hit, “You Were Meant for Me”), and a successful solo career. He also is a fellow USD alum, diehard Padres fan, and faithful reader of Ducksnorts.

Poltz currently is working on two CDs and touring like a madman. He recently took time out of his busy schedule to meet with me at his Starlite club (Poltz is co-owner with Tim Mays of Casbah and Turf Supper Club fame), where we discussed music, baseball, and life over pork chops and steak.

Ducksnorts: You’re originally from Nova Scotia, Canada. When did you first come to California?

Steve Poltz: We came out to Pasadena when I was a toddler. My dad woke up one morning and we were snowed in, and he seriously said, I’m out of here. He was sick of it. All our relatives are Canadians. My grandparents came from Hungary to Canada. My mom’s mom came from Italy, and her dad came from Ireland. They moved to Halifax, which is really Celtic. I was born in Halifax, and one day my dad just drove all the way across the country with us.

In fact, I have a song coming out on my new CD that’s called “A Brief History of My Life.” It starts off with us moving to Pasadena from Halifax and taking an oath that we wouldn’t join the Communist party. That’s the first thing I remember — standing next to my dad, and him becoming an American citizen.

Then later in the song, the chorus goes:

We talked Hollywood and baseball in the car
The voice of Vin Scully will travel real far

The next chorus says, “The voice of Jack Buck”; the third one says, “The voice of Ernie Harwell”; and the last one says, “The voice of Jerry Coleman still travels really far.”

DS: You still have family back in Nova Scotia?

SP: Yeah, I was just playing there a few weeks ago, and all my relatives were there. We were the only ones that moved out. When I go back it’s kind of funny because all my relatives are scattered across Canada and I’m this weird experiment who knows nothing about hockey. For some reason, I never took to the game, so when I go back — it’s like religion back there — they look at me with shame and disgust. I can talk baseball with them, but when it comes to hockey, I look like a blank slate. I don’t even know what they’re talking about.

DS: I’m a fan of Ashley MacIsaac. Are you familiar with him?

SP: Yes, he’s a fiddler from Cape Breton. In fact, I was just up there, playing with all these Cape Breton musicians, doing a showcase for Music Nova Scotia — they still claim me as one of their own.

DS: How long have you been performing?

SP: I started playing guitar when I was six. My uncle Louie is a classically trained piano player and he plays in bars up in Pasadena still — he’s 60 something years old now. He took me to the Hollywood Bowl to see a classical guitarist named Julian Bream when I was about six, and I said, “I want to do that.” That was what I loved, that was all I’d listen to; then I discovered the Monkees, and that kind of changed everything.

As for performing, after I graduated from USD, I took a job in sales. I left USD in ’85 and took a job selling pipe nipples. I was a nipple salesman. It was such a weird time in my life. I was out of money after USD — I was there on a scholarship — and I really needed a job. I worked there for seven years, and it was fun; however, it wasn’t my call, so in ’92, I walked away from the job — my illustrious career as sales manager for pipe nipples — and I decided to pursue music full time.

DS: You were playing before then. You used to come and play at the Crossroads, on the USD campus, and I used to see you there.

SP: Yeah, we played there a lot. You know, you’ve got to play a thousand gigs to learn who you are, to find your voice — and that was the beginning. Even though I’d always played guitar, I would be so nervous. I knew a zillion cover songs and only had probably written three songs. I used to want to vomit before a show; I’d be so scared, I couldn’t sleep the week prior to it, and now I do it for a living. Now I only get nervous if I do the national anthem at the ballpark. When I do that, I don’t sleep the night before. But now to play a gig, I get up for that.

When I was a kid, my uncle had me play the part of Oliver. He would do recitals, and I’d do songs from Fiddler on the Roof. I was raised on musicals, and it’s no coincidence that my uncle is gay [laughs]. To this day, I love going to his gigs because all his Broadway show tune people come out. I still love to go to this place — the Stoney Point in Pasadena. I’ll stay there for hours watching him do show tunes because I was raised on those.

DS: Speaking of cover songs, what were some of your favorites to play?

SP: We were so lame. I look back on what I liked, and I’m still a geek; I always will be. What I liked was never cool — I know what cool is, and I know what I’m supposed to like, and I do like “cool,” don’t get me wrong, but I can tell you something right now — today I was learning three cover songs, and here it is, the year 2007. The three songs I’m learning are “The Way We Were,” by Barbra Streisand (which Marvin Hamlisch wrote); “Close to You,” by the Carpenters…

DS: “Close to You” — Burt Bacharach…

SP: The other one I’m learning is, “By the Time I Get to Phoenix” because I’m a big Jimmy Webb fan. I do “Wichita Lineman” already. We used to do a Beatles medley — not one Beatles song, but a Beatles medley that we put together, which is sort of prescient now if you think about it, with Across the Universe and all these Broadway shows that have come out. I was really into Jesus Christ, Superstar and Godspell. I would act out the parts of Jesus and Judas. I was raised very Catholic, so all that stuff really affected me. [We also played] Earth, Wind, and Fire. I have a good falsetto even though my voice is low.

DS: You do the Philip Bailey?

SP: Yeah, I do the Philip Bailey. I would like to sit here and tell you I do Tom Waits, who I love, and Randy Newman, who I love — I know that stuff; I do love all that and I have an ear for it — but I still love Barbra Streisand.

***

In Part 2, we’ll talk about Celine Dion’s over-the-top sincerity, Steve’s favorite places to play music, and the impact James Taylor had on his love life back in ninth grade…

Operation Center Field: Not All Flaws Are Created Equal

by Geoff Young on Nov 07, 2007 (71) Comments

Now that we’ve looked at defense, how about the other side? There aren’t many center fielders without holes in their offensive game: Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, Ichiro Suzuki… Curtis Granderson is close enough. Let’s see, which of these players is available?

Uh, that would be none.

Okay, so the Padres will need to acquire a flawed hitter. Our next questions should be these:

  1. Independent of market, which flaw(s) can the Padres most afford to live with in their lineup? Which flaw(s) can they least afford?
  2. Which skills does the market currently overvalue? Which does it undervalue?

After we’ve attempted to answer these questions, we can start thinking about more practical matters, such as what it might cost to acquire a particular player. First define your targets, then focus on procurement.

The goal is to find a player (or better, a set of players) whose weaknesses are minimized by context and whose skill set is undervalued. This may not be possible, but again, it’s a starting point. When it comes time to make concessions, we at least have a way to evaluate tradeoffs.

So, to the questions:

Which Flaws Are Least Damaging Given Context?

Ask most folks on the street what the Padres’ greatest need is on offense, and they’ll say more power. As we’ve demonstrated, this is a load of crap, but it’s what many people believe and repeat to others in lieu of truth.

Anyway.

The point is, with Adrian Gonzalez, Khalil Greene, and Kevin Kouzmanoff in the lineup, the Padres don’t need power from their center fielder. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love more power; I’d love to have a 30-homer guy at every position — who wouldn’t? But we’re not talking about somebody’s pipe dream, we’re talking about the areas in which sacrifices can be made without inflicting too much damage. Call power a “nice to have” and leave it at that for now.

At the other end of the spectrum, only the Arizona Diamondbacks (.321) and Chicago White Sox (.318) posted lower team OBPs than the Padres (.322). The Snakes survived on the strength of their pitching in ’07, while the White Sox blew mighty chunks.

For as much as we take pride in the Padres’ pitchers, it’d be real nice to remove some pressure from them next year by scoring more runs. One way is by reaching base more often.

Who Reached Base?

Ten players logged at least 300 plate appearances in 2007, played a fair amount of center field, and finished the season with a .350 OBP or better. Most of those guys, as you might imagine, fall into the untouchable category.

Three do not: Cleveland’s Kenny Lofton, Texas’ Marlon Byrd, and Kansas City’s David DeJesus. Lower the proverbial bar a tad and you’ll find a couple other names that have been rumored at various points to be coming to San Diego: the Cubs’ Jacque Jones and Boston’s Coco Crisp.

Let’s look at each of these options:

  • Lofton is old and probably couldn’t handle the rigors of playing center in the NL West. Byrd is younger, but probably shouldn’t be playing center for anyone.
  • DeJesus intrigues me. He is in his prime, possesses good on-base skills, and reportedly plays solid defense. He doesn’t run much or possess home-run power, so he might not be as sexy as some other center fielders. The U-T gives the impression that Kansas City might be willing to move him to make room for Joey Gathright. Although DeJesus isn’t someone to build around, the guy has skills — sort of Mark Kotsay lite.
  • Jones? I’ve resisted this idea for a long time because he’s got that anti-PPOM (Popular Perception of Moneyball) thing going. You know, the Garret Anderson type whose value is way too tied up into batting average. That said, although Jones’ home-run total plummeted from 27 to 5 last year, the rest of his numbers remained steady. We’re not so concerned about power, so assuming he’s a legitimate center fielder (the numbers look nice but you know me and defensive metrics), Jones might be a decent buy-low candidate.
  • Crisp is like Jones, only younger and with more of a track record in center field. The big strikes against him are durability and a bat that has been MIA since he came to Boston. The one thing that might work in the Padres favor is that when Red Sox Nation turns on one of its own, the results can be goofy. That said, I doubt that anyone is as down on Crisp as they were on Josh Bard in April 2006 — and even if they were, I’m not sure the Red Sox would be willing to make another sweetheart deal.

Of all the above candidates to fill the job in 2008, DeJesus and Crisp (depending on cost and availability) are the most appealing options to me. All else being equal (which it never is), I’d prefer DeJesus because he’s younger, cheaper, healthier, and less prone to having his offensive game vanish for two years at a time.

The difference between DeJesus and Crisp is, to me, similar to that between Kotsay and Jay Payton. One of those guys can hold down the job for a while and give you some stability at the position, while the other is more like deploying a wad of used gum until you can find the glue.

A few other names have been suggested by knowledgeable folks (i.e., readers Peter Friberg and Tom Waits):

  • Brian Barton — He’s oldish (turns 25 at the end of April) and blocked by Sizemore in Cleveland, but he’s hit at every level; sounds like a certain Kouzmanoff I know.
  • Ryan Church — Washington reportedly is interested in Torii Hunter; Church has played more left field, although his numbers in center are solid.
  • Eric Patterson — Corey’s younger brother, former second baseman; could be blocked by Felix Pie.
  • Luke Scott — Similar to Church, but with less experience in center field.

We’re going to skip the next question about which skills the market currently over- and undervalues because, well, I haven’t given it enough thought to say anything meaningful. This is a complex issue worthy of attention, and maybe at some point will revisit it. For now, let’s cut to the chase.

What’s the Cost?

As with most of our questions, the answer is more complicated than you might expect. Fortunately there are no free agents in our list of targets — that would add an extra layer of complexity and probably make my head explode.

The U-T article referenced above indicates that the Padres are more likely to fill the center field vacancy via trade, which I’m glad to hear because I’d reached the same conclusion myself a few weeks ago. First, it’s nice to have my thought process validated; second, and more importantly, it’s comforting to know that my team isn’t going to throw money at a problem just because it can.

Anyway, the costs for each of the below players are twofold:

  • Current and future salary — easy to determine
  • Cost to acquire — unknown

We’ll deal with salary now because it’s easier and my brain is starting to hurt. We may not get to acquisition cost today; assuming the Padres haven’t made a move by then, I’ll return to that sometime next week. (In the meantime, of course, I’d love to hear your thoughts.)

Okay, then. To the indispensable Cot’s Baseball Contracts we turn (names are arranged alphabetically):

  • Barton — club control
  • Church — club control
  • Crisp — $10.5 million through 2009, plus $8 million club option for ’10 (or $0.5 million buyout)
  • DeJesus — $10.8 million through 2010, plus $6 million club option for ’11 (or $0.5 million buyout)
  • Jones — $5 million through 2008
  • Patterson — club control
  • Scott — club control

For the players still under club control, I’m not sure when the clock started ticking; maybe someone can help on that front? Among the others, DeJesus has the most favorable contract situation, followed by Jones, and then Crisp. I really am not crazy about Crisp’s contract.

Taking contractual obligations and big-league experience into consideration only, without regard for acquisition cost, I think my shopping list would look something like this:

  1. DeJesus
  2. Church
  3. Barton
  4. Crisp
  5. Jones

Church is almost “1a” here; if he’s a legitimate center fielder, he might be a better option because he possesses a broader base of offensive skills and his contract is better. Crisp and Jones are the “safe” options, but neither is exciting. Barton is starting to interest me; again, I don’t know how good a defender he is, but the presence of Sizemore could make him expendable.

Winter Leagues

  • Javelinas 3, Saguaros 2 (box | recap). Matt Antonelli, batting ninth, singled and walked in three trips to the plate. In the field, he recorded three assists and a putout, and committed an error. Will Startup worked a scoreless inning and a third, walking one and fanning two.
  • Licey 5, Escogido 2 (box). This is Monday’s game. Yordany Ramirez has seen his playing time reduced since Felix Pie arrived. Ramirez pinch-ran in the sixth and finished up in right field, singling in his only at-bat. On the Escogido side, Vince Sinisi singled and struck out in four at-bats.
  • Azucareros 4, Escogido 3 (box). Sinisi repeated Monday’s performance.
  • Licey 4, Gigantes 3 (box). Ramirez pinch-ran in the eighth, stole a base, and finished up in left field.
  • Mochis 7, Navojoa 5 (box). Oscar Robles went 2-for-4. Luis Cruz, batting sixth and playing second base, went 0-for-3 with a walk.
  • Hermosillo 7, Mazatlan 6 (box). Brian Myrow, batting fifth for Mazatlan, doubled, walked, and struck out twice in four trips to the plate.

There it is. We’ve got something a little different lined up for Thursday. I’m taking a break from analyzing stuff to present the first of a five-part interview that I hope you will enjoy. Hint: Expect some non-baseball content.

I’ll also be in Vegas over the next few days for BlogWorld. None other than Mark Cuban is giving the final keynote on Friday afternoon. I’ll be sure to tell him you said hey. ;-)

Operation Center Field: Home, Home on the Range

by Geoff Young on Nov 06, 2007 (85) Comments

When last we examined the center field situation, we formulated a series of questions to consider before moving forward. Now we’ll look at the first of these: What do the Padres need in a center fielder? Today we’ll cover the defensive side of the equation; tomorrow we’ll hit the offense. I think you see my priority for the position already.

Why Defense First?

Maddux Returns

Greg Maddux has agreed to a 1-year, $10 million contract with the Padres. MB offers analysis of the deal, while I’ll just say, “Woo-hoo!”

We’ve now had four years to watch the Padres play at Petco Park. We saw Jay Payton do an adequate job patrolling center in 2004, Dave Roberts struggle mightily in 2005, and Mike Cameron play it beautifully (except for the first 5-6 weeks of 2007) these past two years. With 81 games at Petco, and 9 more each at the challenging Coors Field and PhoneCo, the Padres ideally should have a center fielder who can cover a lot of ground, and preferably someone who is durable.

The defensive metrics currently available make my head spin. Not only are they sometimes confusing, but often they are contradictory as well. None of this, of course, is a valid reason for ignoring the available data. With that in mind, here are the top big-league center fielders of 2007 according to various metrics, with a few other names thrown in for good measure:

Revised Zone Rating

The Hardball Times’ revised zone rating (RZR) is “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out.” There were 17 qualifying center fielders in 2007; here are a few of interest:

  1. Andruw Jones .921
  2. Curtis Granderson .921
  3. Carlos Beltran .915
  4. Melky Cabrera .910
  5. David DeJesus .910
  6. Coco Crisp .909
  1. Mike Cameron .894
  1. Torii Hunter .891
  1. Aaron Rowand .861

Out of Zone

Out of zone (OOZ) represents “the total number of outs made by a fielder on balls hit outside of his zone.” This is a counting stat, not a rate stat:

  1. Ichiro Suzuki 97
  2. Curtis Granderson 85
  3. Andruw Jones 80
  4. Aaron Rowand 69
  5. Chris Young 66
  1. Coco Crisp 58
  1. Mike Cameron 53
  1. Torii Hunter 47
  2. David DeJesus 46

Ultimate Zone Rating

Ultimate zone rating (UZR) was devised a while back by Mitchel Lichtman. It’s a bit complicated — read the full explanation if you’re so inclined.

Complete rankings are unavailable for 2007, but Tango et al. at The Book have provided the top and bottom three from each league by position. Here are key center fielders:

  • Grady Sizemore +26
  • Curtis Granderson +18
  • Aaron Rowand +14
  • David DeJesus/Coco Crisp +13
  • Calros Beltran +8
  • Mike Cameron +7
  • Gary Matthews Jr. -8
  • Dave Roberts -26 (shock)

Range Factor

The original. Range factor (RF) is (assists + putouts)/game. ESPN lists 18 qualifiers at center field for 2007. Again, we examine the usual suspects:

  1. Coco Crisp 3.07
  2. Curtis Granderson 3.04
  3. Melky Cabrera 3.02
  4. Nook Logan 2.98
  5. Ichiro Suzuki/Gary Matthews Jr. 2.90
  1. David DeJesus 2.70
  2. Torii Hunter 2.68
  3. Andruw Jones 2.67
  1. Aaron Rowand 2.64
  1. Mike Cameron 2.52

Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans

This isn’t a defensive metric; this is based on visual observation and might help provide a counterpoint to all the other madness. From Tango’s 2007 report for center fielders (n = 52):

  1. Ichiro Suzuki
  2. Carlos Beltran
  3. Felix Pie
  4. Andruw Jones
  5. Torii Hunter
  1. Mike Cameron
  1. Curtis Granderson
  1. Coco Crisp
  1. Aaron Rowand
  1. David DeJesus
  1. Dave Roberts
  1. Juan Pierre

Okay, So What?

First off, we’re looking at only one year of data. You could repeat this exercise for previous seasons and really make a mess of things, er, I mean, gather more evidence, but we’ll stick with ’07 numbers for now. They’re the most recent available, and I doubt that additional data points would help enough to offset the cost of looking for them.

Second, I’m not satisfied with any of these metrics. That said, we can’t just bury our heads in the proverbial sand. It is my belief (hope?) that by attacking the question from multiple angles, using different tools that make an honest attempt to measure what we’re looking for, we’ll see some patterns.

Those bulky caveats out of the way, here are a few observations I’m comfortable making:

  • I don’t see evidence that Andruw Jones has slipped defensively. Although he isn’t universally regarded by available metrics as an elite defender, there’s nothing here that should be cause for alarm. His numbers were roughly the same in 2006 and 2007, both of which marked improvements over 2005. I’m not dismissing claims of a decline out of hand, just saying that if it’s happening, he’s doing an excellent job of disguising it.
  • Curtis Granderson can play center field. Also, he’s young and he can hit. This isn’t the first time I’ve wished we were the Tigers.
  • For all his other failings, Coco Crisp did good work in the field in ’07. Depending on which metric you use, his performance fell somewhere between above average and great. The downside is that this is out of line with his previous defensive numbers. Did he improve because he stayed healthy most of the year? Did he come into his own at age 27? Was it a fluke? We don’t know. We just know he played a good center field this year.
  • Torii Hunter’s reputation probably exceeds his ability at this point, and he ain’t getting younger. Fine ballplayer, but for the money he’s likely to command, he should be at the head of the class as a defender. He isn’t.
  • Aaron Rowand is all over the map. Look at his numbers to understand why I hate defensive metrics.

I could keep going, but you get the idea. Tomorrow we’ll deal with the offensive side of the equation.

Winter Leagues

  • Saguaros 4, Surprise 1 (box | recap). Nick Hundley batted fifth and DH’d; he went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and a sac fly. Will Venable started in right field, singling twice and doubling in four trips to the plate out of the #6 hole.

Dominican scores weren’t available as of this writing. No games were scheduled in Mexico or Venezuela.

Weekend Winter Wrapup (5 Nov 07)

by Geoff Young on Nov 05, 2007 (134) Comments

I tried to watch some of the USD – Long Beach State game on Sunday at Cunningham Stadium, but it was brutal. These kids haven’t been playing for some time, and it showed. I’ve never seen so many walks and wild pitches.

To the winter leagues…

Friday, November 2

  • Matt AntonelliSaguaros 11, Javelinas 5 (box | recap). Matt Antonelli, batting sixth, singled, doubled, and drew three walks in five trips to the plate. Nick Hundley, in the #8 hole, went 2-for-4 with a walk and 3 RBI. The Saguaros pounded out 15 hits on the day. Jonathan Ellis worked a 13-pitch perfect eighth, while Will Startup needed just 10 pitches to close out the victory, allowing a one-out single before inducing a game-ending double play started by Antonelli. Ex-Padre Sean Thompson couldn’t find the plate and took the loss for the Javelinas.
  • Azucareros 6, Licey 0 (box). Yordany Ramirez batted eighth and went 1-for-3. He played right field in this one to accommodate Felix Pie, whose name has surfaced in rumors involving the Padres. (Incidentally, Kansas City’s David DeJesus is mentioned as another possibility in the linked article. I’ve been tracking him for some time; I think his combination of on-base skills and defense would make him a good fit for Petco Park.)
  • Escogido 4, Aguilas 3 (box). Vince Sinisi, batting third and playing left field, hit his second homer of the season. It came off Jose Lima. Geez, how is that guy younger than I am? Ex-Padre Bernie Castro homered for Aguilas; he has two home runs this winter after hitting one all season. A bunch of former Padres in this one: Juan Melo, Freddy Guzman. What the heck is Luis Polonia doing in the Aguilas lineup? He could break a hip or something.
  • Mazatlan 5, Navojoa 3 (box). Oscar Robles doubled twice in four at-bats. Luis Cruz, playing third base, went 0-for-3 with a walk. Brian Myrow is playing first base for Mazatlan; why wasn’t I informed? Batting cleanup, Myrow went 2-for-2 with two walks. As he does everywhere, he’s hitting the tar out of the ball (.316/.469/.447). I don’t care if he’s 31 years old; someone should be able to use this guy.
  • Mexicali 2, Guasave 1 (box). Jared Wells faced four batters in the eighth — one reached base on an error by the shortstop, and another, former big-leaguer Armando Rios, knocked a two-out single. Wells has been predictably inconsistent for Mexicali this winter.

Saturday, November 3

  • Will VenableSurprise 6, Saguaros 5 (box | recap). Antonelli, batting ninth, went 1-for-3 and laid down a sacrifice bunt. Will Venable singled twice in four at-bats out of the cleanup spot; he got the start in left field. John Hudgins started and allowed one run over three innings. He gave up just one hit but walked three batters. This was Hudgins’ second start in 2007. He threw 49 pitches in the first one and 46 more on Saturday. Best to err on the side of caution after such an extended layoff.
  • Gigantes 4, Escogido 3 (box). Sinisi doubled and walked in five plate appearances.
  • Licey 6, Estrellas 3 (box). Ramirez, again in right field, went 2-for-3.
  • Mazatlan 6, Navojoa 1 (box). Robles went 1-for-3, Cruz went 1-for-2. On the other side, Myrow went 1-for-4.
  • Mexicali 7, Guasave 6 (box). Wells worked an inning and two-thirds, allowing one run on one hit and one walk. He entered with runners at the corners and one out in the eighth, and a 3-0 lead. The first batter Wells faced, former big-leaguer Jolbert Cabrera, knocked both runners home with a double. A passed ball and wild pitch scored Cabrera, tying the game. Wells then walked a batter and allowed a stolen base before getting out of the inning without further damage. He then worked a perfect ninth — two grounders to short and a strikeout (looking). I guess if you’re looking for silver linings, you could point to the fact that Wells bounced back strong in his second inning of work. Eh…
  • Caracas 7, Aragua 6 (box). Paul Abraham lived a pitcher’s dream. He entered with two out in the eighth and his team trailing, 6-4. Aragua third baseman Luis Maza was nailed trying to steal second. Caracas then scored three runs in the top of the ninth and won, 7-6, giving Abraham the victory without ever retiring a batter.

Sunday, November 4

  • Aguilas 6, Licey 0 (box). More right field for Ramirez: 0-for-3 with a strikeout.
  • Escogido 6, Estrellas 6 (box). Sinisi had himself a nice little weekend. He homered in four at-bats on Sunday. Bearing in mind the extremely small sample (40 PA), he’s putting up some solid numbers (.343/.400/.686) in the Dominican. Seriously, what can Terrmel Sledge do that Sinisi can’t? Hopefully it’s not the same thing that kept Paul McAnulty out of a job in ’07.
  • Mazatlan 4, Navojoa 3 (box). Mazatlan completed the weekend sweep at home. Robles went 1-for-4 with a solo homer in a losing cause. Cruz moved up to the #3 spot and started in center field, going 0-for-4. I should mention that technically Cruz is a minor-league free agent, but since he played in the system this year, we’ll keep tracking him. (Same goes for Ramirez in the Dominican Republic and Abraham in Venezuela.)

Tunes: Joe Pass, Billie Holliday, Eric Alexander, Nat Adderly, Walter Blanding, Herbie Hancock, Winard Harper, David Hazeltine, Red Holloway, Wes Montgomery.

Friday Links (2 Nov 07)

by Geoff Young on Nov 02, 2007 (75) Comments

Hey, look, it’s links…

  • A nod to good management and a nudge to spend more (Friar Forecast). MB gives the Padres front office staff props for procuring good talent on a small budget, but would like to see what they could do with more money.
  • ‘Tainted supplement’ excuse outmoded (San Diego Union-Tribune). I love Victor Conte’s quote:

    This isn’t drug testing, this is IQ testing. All you have to do is look at the list and find one of the 30 that’s not on the list and use that. This guy (Cameron) didn’t fail a drug test. He failed an IQ test.

    Man, that’s harsh. It’s funny, but it’s harsh.

  • Needs and Luxuries: San Diego Padres (MLB Trade Rumors, via Steve C in the comments). Quick reset of where the Padres are now and what their winter priorities should be.
  • Derek is proceeding as though Matt Holliday was called out at the plate and has replayed the rest of Game #163.
  • NL West Hot Stove Preview (SI.com, via KRS1 in the comments). Nate Silver examines what the NL West teams should and will do this winter. I pretty much agree with his assessments. Nate does a great job of distilling the Dodgers’ problems into a single sentence: “There is no bigger disconnect in baseball than the Dodgers’ ability to develop talent and the front office’s lack of appreciation for that talent.” As long as that disconnect continues to exist, I’ll be happy. Ned Colletti for president!
  • Why Is Torre Managing the Dodgers? (Knuckle Curve). Speaking of the Dodgers, the more I think about the Joe Torre hiring, the less sense it makes to me. Not that I’m complaining, of course…
  • Jays To Retain Stairs, Cut Towers? (MLB Trade Rumors, via Phantom in the comments). Josh Towers? Eh. The Padres have similar options that are already under contract.
  • The Elias rankings are out and available at USA Today (NL | AL). What do I think of the system? Michael Barrett is a Type A free agent; Mike Cameron is Type B. Systems don’t get much more broken than that. And I hope the Padres resist the temptation to offer Barrett arbitration.
  • A-Rod Survivor (Baseball Prospectus, via Ben B. in the comments). Nate Silver thinks that Alex Rodriguez is coming to California, but probably not San Diego. Might I suggest the Angels?
  • Top 10 A-Rod destinations (Yahoo! Sports, via LynchMob in the comments). Hey, look, Jeff Passan has the same teams at the top of his list of potential suitors for Rodriguez.
  • Astros interested in Hunter, Rowand (MLB.com, via Tom Waits in the comments). Houston is looking to upgrade in center, which Tom suggests might make Luke Scott available. Of the names I’ve heard so far, he and Ryan Church interest me most. Given the free-agent market for center fielders, and assuming the Padres don’t re-sign Cameron, I wonder if a trade might make more sense?
  • “Moneyball” Will Never Win In October (Sacrifice Bunt). Sweet, there’s a new blog in town. C’mon, folks; we need more Padres blogs. This entry contains a simple truth that never goes out of style:

    I think it’s human nature to to look for evidence that agrees with your conclusion instead of creating a conclusion based on evidence.

    Amen, brother Melvin. And thanks for all the strikeouts; I’m still enjoying the breeze.

  • What happened to Josh Barfield? (Hardball Times). Pimpin’ my own stuff.

Winter Leagues

  • Team USA 3, Saguaros 0 (box | recap). Will Venable, batting cleanup and playing right field, went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Matt Antonelli was back at second base and singled in three at-bats.
  • Navojoa 9, Guasave 7 (box). Oscar Robles went 1-for-3 with a walk. Luis Cruz went a bit nuts — triple, homer, two walks in five trips to the plate.

That’s all I’ve got. Happy Friday…

Mike Cameron, Coffee Achiever

by Geoff Young on Nov 01, 2007 (49) Comments

Mike CameronSo, what’s new with Mike Cameron? As usual I’m late to the party because I like to wait for all the blowhards to finish blowing.

Cameron has been suspended 25 games for using stimulants, so he’ll miss the first month of the ’08 season. I would get on my moral high horse here, except that we’ve known for some time that stimulant use is more widespread in baseball than is steroid use; we’ve just turned the other way a lot longer, that’s all. So for me, as one who has turned the other way, to sit here and rip into Cameron would be pretty disingenuous on my part.

This is the where I’m tempted to launch into a rambling philosophical discourse on the price of happiness. You know, the bit about how we could attack the stimulant issue by reducing the number of games in a season, but there’s too much money at stake. Then things get weird, and we’re not really talking about baseball anymore.

Instead we’ll focus on the part that interests me most: How can the Padres use this situation to their advantage? Perhaps a bit cold of me, sort of like cash.

The main thing about Cameron right now, aside from the fact that he’s likely to play no more than 125-130 games in ’08, is that he’s taking a PR beating. Reaction from fans is negative, but fans don’t pay the checks. Well, they do indirectly, but fans will put up with a lot (unless you’re in Montreal and a large institution insists on driving your franchise out of the city, but I digress), so I don’t expect this to hurt Cameron’s marketability as much as the fact that he’ll miss games.

Oh, and Cameron apparently has played baseball while drunk. Shock! Horror! Okay, so that makes two guys on the ’07 Padres who have made such an admission. Stupid? Sure, but get over it. (I like that Cameron hit two homers and drove in eight runs when he was drunk, while David Wells tossed a perfect game. Wait, why weren’t these guys getting more alcohol pumped into their systems? That could’ve been enough to get the Friars into the playoffs, you know.)

Sorry, got sidetracked again. I haven’t even been drinking. Well, coffee, but everyone does that. (Fortunately it’s legal.)

What the heck is my point? Oh, right. The thing is, I’m thinking that maybe Cameron’s perceived value takes enough of a hit as a result of his suspension that the Padres can bring him back at a “reasonable” price. What do I mean by reasonable? Dunno, we’ll just say lower than it would have been before this incident.

And to make it abundantly clear, I don’t condone Cameron’s actions. But he is a product of his environment, and his environment is one in which the use of stimulants implicitly has been deemed acceptable. None of this gives Cameron a free pass, of course, but maybe it helps bring the problem out into the light.

And maybe it helps bring the Padres a cheap option in center field for 2008.

Winter Leagues

  • Phoenix 4, Saguaros 3 (box). Will Venable batted fourth and played center field. He singled and was plunked twice in four plate appearances; he also fielded three balls without incident. Matt Antonelli, batting eighth and DH’ing, went 0-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout.
  • Navojoa 3, Guasave 2 (box). Ladies and gentlemen, Oscar Robles, hitting machine. He singled, tripled, and walked in five trips to the plate. That’s four multi-hit games in the past five if you’re keeping score at home. Luis Cruz played third base again and went 0-for-4.

More rain in the Dominican Republic. That’s gotta be one heckuva storm…