Top 10 Prospects for 2008
Tue, Dec 11, 2007
by Geoff Young
I’ve shied away from compiling top prospect lists in recent years because it’s my belief that what they best measure are the list-maker’s biases. (Okay, and maybe I’m still feeling a little sheepish about ranking Jake Gautreau ahead of Jason Bay once upon a time.)
Other people like reading prospect lists, though, and I’m not prepared to be a curmudgeon without good cause, so what the hey. My general approach is to balance upside with proximity to the big leagues as best I can, then hope I get lucky.
I’ve seen six of my picks play in person, including four of my top five. For those guys, my evaluations include their statistical record, second-hand reports I’ve read, and personal observations, roughly in that order. The rest get only two-thirds of that equation (duh). For the kids who haven’t yet played full-season ball, I’m relying almost entirely on scouting reports, with a dash of whimsy thrown in because, really, what is a prospect list without a dash of whimsy?
I’m pretty confident that my top two guys will have solid big-league careers. I like the chances of my #3 and #4 prospects as well, although they are further away. After that, the crystal ball gets real cloudy.
Take this list with giant buckets of salt. Comps are described here, league offensive levels can be found here. Enjoy!
10. Edinson Rincon
| Biographical Data | |
|---|---|
| Height: 6′1″ | DOB: August 11, 1990 |
| Weight: 185 | School: Dominican Republic |
| Bats: Right | Acquired: Free Agent, Padres, 2007 |
| Throws: Right | |
| 2007 Stats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | BB/SO | BB/PA | ISO | XB/H |
| DSL | 141 | .295 | .383 | .402 | .654 | .121 | .107 | .250 |
| AZL | 53 | .178 | .302 | .200 | .636 | .132 | .022 | .125 |
My crazy pick; pure upside, but so many unknowns. The fact that Rincon was playing pro ball at age 16 is impressive. One blemish: He tested positive for a banned substance during the season. At this point, Rincon’s career could go in so many different directions that it would be foolish to predict any one of them. Watch, and wait…
9. Nick Hundley
| Biographical Data | |
|---|---|
| Height: 6′1″ | DOB: September 8, 1983 |
| Weight: 210 | School: U. of Arizona |
| Bats: Right | Acquired: Drafted 2nd round, Padres, 2005 |
| Throws: Right | Comps: Jermaine Dye |
| 2007 Stats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | BB/SO | BB/PA | ISO | XB/H |
| AA | 422 | .247 | .324 | .475 | .568 | .100 | .228 | .478 |
Best advanced in-house candidate to succeed Josh Bard. Although Hundley’s batting average dropped a bit in his second full pro season, his plate discipline and power both have improved as he’s moved up the ladder. Hundley won’t be a star, but he’s a capable defender who should hit enough to become a decent regular. Think Mike Macfarlane.
8. Will Inman
| Biographical Data | |
|---|---|
| Height: 6′0″ | DOB: February 6, 1987 |
| Weight: 200 | School: Tunstall HS, Dry Fork, Va. |
| Bats: Right | Acquired: Trade with Brewers, 2007 |
| Throws: Right | |
| 2007 Stats | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 |
| A+ | 78.2 | 1.72 | 6.41 | 0.46 | 2.63 | 11.21 |
| SOU | 39.2 | 5.45 | 8.62 | 1.59 | 3.63 | 9.53 |
| TEX | 41 | 4.17 | 7.49 | 1.36 | 4.31 | 9.08 |
Good pedigree; needs to show a little more at higher levels. Part of the Scott Linebrink deal, Inman is a smallish right-hander who relies on command for success. His track record in the low minors is outrageous, but he stumbled a bit on first exposure to Double-A. That primarily was a function of elevated home-run and walk rates, which suggests that he wasn’t locating as well as he had in A-ball. More accurately, it suggests that the hitters did a better job of choosing which pitches to offer at and which to let go. That happens at higher levels. The encouraging sign is that Inman’s strikeout rate remained strong. Sure, it dropped a lot, but when you’re starting at such a high level, there’s margin for error. Inman needs more time at Double-A, but if he can re-establish some of the command that he displayed at lower levels, the Padres could have themselves a solid back-end option for 2009.
7. Wade LeBlanc
| Biographical Data | |
|---|---|
| Height: 6′3″ | DOB: August 7, 1984 |
| Weight: 190 | School: U. of Alabama |
| Bats: Left | Acquired: Drafted 2nd round, Padres, 2006 |
| Throws: Left | |
| 2007 Stats | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 |
| A+ | 92 | 2.64 | 7.03 | 0.49 | 1.66 | 8.80 |
| AA | 57.1 | 3.45 | 7.53 | 1.26 | 2.98 | 8.63 |
LeBlanc pitched well in his first full season of pro ball. He dominated the California League and didn’t slip much on being promoted to San Antonio. The usual small sample caveats apply, but I’m encouraged by the fact that his strikeout rate held even after moving up a level. The home runs and walks rose a bit, which is cause for some concern, but again, we’re talking about 57 innings worth of data. We’ll get a better idea of LeBlanc’s true level of ability after we’ve seen him work more at higher levels. LeBlanc throws strikes and changes speeds well. He could see action with the big club as early as the second half of 2008 and eventually settle in as a #3 or #4 starter.
6. Kellen Kulbacki
| Biographical Data | |
|---|---|
| Height: 5′11″ | DOB: November 21, 1985 |
| Weight: 185 | School: James Madison U. |
| Bats: Left | Acquired: Drafted 1st round, Padres, 2007 |
| Throws: Left | Comps: James Loney |
| 2007 Stats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | BB/SO | BB/PA | ISO | XB/H |
| A- | 262 | .301 | .382 | .491 | .482 | .103 | .190 | .353 |
This one’s a reach, but I like his offensive potential. With his combination of power and plate discipline, Kulbacki draws comparisons to Brian Giles and Nick Swisher. Defensively there are questions, though the degree is a matter of debate. Playing a corner outfield spot at Petco Park is more challenging than at most other venues. The good news is that with his bat, even average work with the glove should be enough to keep him gainfully employed. Kulbacki might be the best hitting prospect in the organization. Given his age, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Padres move aggressively with him.
5. Kyle Blanks
| Biographical Data | |
|---|---|
| Height: 6′6″ | DOB: September 11, 1986 |
| Weight: 270 lbs. | School: Moriarty HS, Edgewood, N.M. |
| Bats: Right | Acquired: Drafted 42nd round, Padres, 2004 |
| Throws: Right | Comps: James Loney |
| 2007 Stats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | BB/SO | BB/PA | ISO | XB/H |
| A+ | 531 | .301 | .380 | .540 | .449 | .083 | .239 | .421 |
Sometimes called “Gigantor,” Blanks is a mountain of a man. There has been talk that he can play the outfield if needed, but nobody’s ever actually stuck him there. Because of his size, there are concerns about his conditioning. Blanks posted solid numbers in the California League at age 20, which is a good sign. He also improved just about every aspect of his offensive game in 2007 while moving up a level, another good sign. With Adrian Gonzalez entrenched at first base in San Diego, there should be no hurry to move Blanks up the ranks. If he can handle the outfield, great; if not, he could become a trading chip at some point. The power came in 2007; the next step for Blanks should be to tighten his strike zone. Experts have been slow to warm up to Blanks, but I think the kid can play.
4. Cedric Hunter
| Biographical Data | |
|---|---|
| Height: 6′0″ | DOB: March 10, 1988 |
| Weight: 185 | School: King HS, Decatur, Ga. |
| Bats: Left | Acquired: Drafted 3rd round, Padres, 2006 |
| Throws: Left | Comps: Shawn Green, Kenny Lofton, Shane Victorino |
| 2007 Stats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | BB/SO | BB/PA | ISO | XB/H |
| A | 549 | .282 | .344 | .373 | .603 | .086 | .090 | .207 |
| AAA | 5 | .500 | .600 | 1.250 | 1.000 | .200 | .750 | .500 |
Hunter was all the rage after his 2006 showing in the Arizona League. His star fell some last year, although he hasn’t changed much as a prospect. Hunter held his own in the Midwest League — a tough hitting environment — at age 19. There’s no shame in that. The only questions with Hunter are whether he’ll have to move to a corner spot at higher levels and how much power he’ll develop.
3. Mat Latos
| Biographical Data | |
|---|---|
| Height: 6′5″ | DOB: January 20, 1986 |
| Weight: 210 | School: Broward (Fla.) CC |
| Bats: Right | Acquired: Drafted 11th round, Padres, 2006 |
| Throws: Right | |
| 2007 Stats | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 |
| A- | 56.1 | 3.83 | 9.27 | 0.16 | 3.51 | 11.82 |
A draft-and-follow pick, Latos (pronounced “lay-tos”) is something of an anomaly in the Padres system in that he throws hard. Again, fewer than 60 innings doesn’t give us much to go on, but the high strikeout rate (it’s only short-season ball, but he was competing against older, more experienced players) coupled with predraft scouting reports are cause for hope. Latos has better upside than any other pitcher in the organization, and it’s not even close. He’ll make his full-season debut in 2008 season at age 20. If he can stay healthy and grow up a little (his maturity has been questioned, which isn’t surprising at that age), Latos could develop into a front-line starter for the Padres, which would be welcome in an organization that features mostly back-end types.
2. Matt Antonelli
| Biographical Data | |
|---|---|
| Height: 6′0″ | DOB: April 8, 1985 |
| Weight: 203 | School: Wake Forest U. |
| Bats: Right | Acquired: Drafted 1st round, Padres, 2006 |
| Throws: Right | Comps: Manny Ramirez, B.J. Upton |
| 2007 Stats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | BB/SO | BB/PA | ISO | XB/H |
| A+ | 406 | .314 | .409 | .499 | .914 | .131 | .185 | .294 |
| AA | 223 | .294 | .395 | .476 | .833 | .135 | .182 | .345 |
He’s really more like 1A. The comps are for Antonelli’s time in the California League, although his numbers relative to league are virtually the same at Double-A. Antonelli reminds me of Bill Doran, who played second base for the Astros back in the mid-’80s. Good mix of on-base skills and gaps power. Antonelli hit zero home runs in his first exposure to pro ball before knocking 21 last year. My suspicion is that the truth lies somewhere between those two extremes and that whatever power Antonelli has might not manifest itself in the form of home runs at the big-league level right away, especially if he is pushed into a starting role to open the 2008 season. There’s plenty of talent here, but be patient.
1. Chase Headley
| Biographical Data | |
|---|---|
| Height: 6′2″ | DOB: May 9, 1984 |
| Weight: 195 | School: U. of Tennessee |
| Bats: Both | Acquired: Drafted 2nd round, Padres, 2005 |
| Throws: Right | Comps: Chipper Jones |
| 2007 Stats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | BB/SO | BB/PA | ISO | XB/H |
| AA | 522 | .330 | .437 | .580 | .649 | .142 | .250 | .441 |
| MLB | 21 | .222 | .333 | .278 | .500 | .095 | .056 | .250 |
Headley offers the best combination of upside and proximity to the big leagues in the organization. Coming off a solid but somewhat disappointing season at Lake Elsinore, Headley moved up to Double-A and dominated. He hit for average and power, controlled the strike zone, and played strong defense at third base. Headley even got into a few big-league games in mid-June when Kevin Kouzmanoff was hurt. Headley draws praise for his intelligence and makeup. His overall offensive game calls to mind Jeff Cirillo (the good version, not the guy who played for the Padres in ‘04), with a bit more home-run power. One of Headley or Kouzmanoff could shift to left field, although it’s not clear which — if either — is better suited to make the move. Regardless, Headley should provide the Padres or some other team with a potent bat in the not-too-distant future.
Notable Omissions
A few guys that other experts included in their Top 10 lists didn’t make mine. Here they are, in alphabetical order, along with my explanation of why I didn’t include them:
Yefri Carvajal, OF
Too much projection for my taste. I view short-season stats with extreme suspicion, but it bothers me that Carvajal couldn’t control the strike zone in the Northwest League last year. All indications are that this guy has sick talent; I just need to see him put it to use before anointing him a top prospect.
David Freese, 3B
I actually like Freese quite a bit — every time I saw him in ‘07, he was pounding the ball to right and right-center. He reminds me of Kouzmanoff, although at age 24, Kouz was dominating the Eastern and International Leagues to an even greater degree than Freese dominated the Cal League last year. The Padres don’t have a great track record with mid-level corner guys — Tagg Bozied and Greg Sain come to mind — but we’ll see.
Steve Garrison, LHP
I don’t think he’s done enough yet. The ERAs last year looked nice, but the K/9 hovering around 6 doesn’t impress me. I didn’t rank guys past #10, but if I had to guess, I’d probably stick Garrison in the mid- to late-teens.
Josh Geer, RHP
He’s polished and he throws strikes but the 5.36 K/9 at Double-A scares the heck out of me. From where I sit, Geer looks like a poor-man’s Justin Germano. Possibly a useful short-term option, but very limited upside.
Chad Huffman, OF
Most people like Huffman more than I do. I’ve seen him play about a half dozen times, and he never once left an impression on me. That’s not a good enough reason to dismiss him (which I don’t; he’s probably #11 or #12 on my list), but it’s hard for me to shake. The other thing about Huffman is that he’s strictly a corner outfielder and he’ll need to mash at every level. He slipped a bit on moving to Double-A last year. This could be due to differences in league offensive levels or small sample, but it concerns me. I need to see more from Huffman at higher levels.
Drew Miller, RHP
I’ve never seen him pitch and I’m not comfortable making any judgments based on the limited data available. The strikeout rates are promising, but I hear rumblings about his off-speed stuff. I’d think Miller is a good candidate to make my Top 10 list next year, after he’s had more of an opportunity to show what he can do.
Nick Schmidt, LHP
I didn’t include him because he’s hurt and expected to miss the entire 2008 season. Before the injury, Schmidt would have been right there with LeBlanc and Inman.
. . .
There you have it. These guys and about 60 other minor leaguers will be profiled in the book. It’ll be grand…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
December 11, 2007 at 7:38 am
Great job G.Y! I really love reading your player analysis.
This line killed me “Geer looks like a poor-man’s Justin Germano.”
Isn’t Justin Germano a poor mans Justin Germano?
December 11, 2007 at 8:12 am
Rincon is a big reach, but then again I had Joe Thatcher at #4 - I tend to think he will be a little more than a situational lefty, an opinion that so far none of my friends at Madfriars agree with me…to put it mildly
A few comments on a good list
(1) Inman right now is essentially a poor man’s Josh Geer. Its impressive that he is in AA at 20 but he simply hasn’t pitched very well at that level. He throws three pitches for strikes, but none of them are plus pitches. Its doubtfull his fastball is going to increase in velocity and right now Geer has a much better natural sinking fastball to go along with superior command.
(2) Its a good point about Huffman being limited to a corner OF spot, really more just LF - however Blanks is even more limited. The Padres are adament about not putting him in the OF. Also Huffman had several nagging injuries which derailed him in San Antonio. IMO, if he hadn’t been hurt the second half of the season he might be there with Headley and Antonelli.
(3) I agree that Yefri is a little too much projection right now - especially since he is also a guy that is going to be limited to a corner OF spot it appears - but Rincon isn’t? Then again to me this is the toughest level to predict - according to me Geoff Vandel should be a star by now…LOL
(4) Finally I think a bigger question about Hunter is not will he start to hit with more power but will he use his speed better this year. He doen’t have enough of a bat for the corners and he’s a natural in CF. If he’s going to make it will be in center.
December 11, 2007 at 8:12 am
Wouldn’t Carrillo still rate a mention like Schmidt’s? Still a prospect but injured at the moment?
Always interesting to read about the guys down on the farm since I don’t follow them much myself. Look forward to other folks thoughts.
December 11, 2007 at 8:22 am
2: My one major disagreement would be Inman v Geer. Inman’s strikeout rate in AA is almost 2x Geer’s, even though he’s nearly 4 years younger. If it’s unlikely for the 20 year old Inman to add velocity, it seems less likely for the 24 year old Geer to do it. On the other hand, Inman’s command was never a problem before AA. I don’t see why he can’t recapture it when he’s old enough to buy a beer after the game.
I’d trade Josh Geer four times before I’d think about trading Inman.
3. Totally agree. I like Carrillo’s upside more than Schmidt’s and he’s further along in his recovery.
December 11, 2007 at 8:30 am
[...] those interested, I’ve posted my list of Top 10 Padres prospects for 2008 over at Ducksnorts. baseball, prospectsShare This Related StoriesYet Another Prospect List for [...]
December 11, 2007 at 8:37 am
4. To me, and I’ve been a doubter of Josh Geer from Fort Wayne on up, his strength is getting batters to hit his sinking fastball into the ground - so he’s not going to have a great deal of strike outs. His velocity improved a few ticks at San Antonio, but his command, change and slider were much better - including being able to get the inside strike.
Essentially every time I thought Geer couldn’t suceed at the next level he did. Seeing him in San Antonio he was the second most impressive guy I saw pitch there this year. The big question with Geer is will he be able to get the inside strike in the majors or even AAA and his stats are probably going to go down throwing in Portland as opposed to San Antonio, which is like a mini-PETCO.
You could definitely be correct on Inman, especially with your argument on his K/IP rates and regaining his command from previous years. Right now to me he looks a lot like college pitchers that you see in the lower minors that have success changing speeds in lower and upper A, but don’t have really an effective out pitch at higher levels and get beat by the big hit.
The reason I made the comparison of Inman to Geer is talking to people in San Antonio they describe him as very similiar to Geer. Both of them I see as no more than #4 or #5 guys.
I like Drew Miller more, but with him its a big question of his health and his secondary pitches.
December 11, 2007 at 8:41 am
This list seems to jibe with what I’ve heard/seen.
By the way, is there going to be anyone on the Lake Elsinore team that I should pay particular attention to next year? I know that Cedric will likely be there, but I wonder who else will be there.
I should get more opportunities to see the Storm next year because I’m currently slated to intern for the High Desert Mavericks (Seattle’s affiliate in the CAL league). On that note, are there any up and coming Mariners I should try to watch? I wonder if any of the executives in MiLB try to rate players, or if they strictly keep to running the team.
At any rate, did anyone else see the UT article saying that the Cubs might be up over $50 mil for Kosuke? Seems a bit ridiculous to me. I think we’d better start looking elsewhere.
December 11, 2007 at 8:44 am
#2.1: I haven’t seen Inman pitch, but as TW points out, his age and ability to miss bats make him a better risk. Maybe Geer will be an exception, but guys with such low strikeout rates don’t have a good track record.
#2.2: True about Blanks and Huffman; Blanks has impressed me more with his bat when I’ve seen him than Huffman has.
#2.3: Yeah, Rincon is my “crazy pick.” I wanted to have fun with that 10th spot, and Carvajal is the more obvious choice, so I went with Rincon.
#2.4: I’ve only seen Hunter play once, so I don’t know as much about him as the guys who’ve come through Elsinore. It just seems that folks are down on the guy more than they should be right now.
#3, 4: I probably should have mentioned Carrillo as well. He’d be somewhere in the teens. I have serious reservations about a 24-year-old who has 125 pro innings under his belt, but I sure liked what I saw in his debut at Elsinore in ‘05.
December 11, 2007 at 8:52 am
About Inman vs Geer:
A couple things that we know about pitching prospects:
-K rate is the best indicator of future success
-age compared to the rest of the league is very important
Inman’s K rate was fantastic and projects to stay above 7.0 in the majors. Given better defense and the possibility his HR rate comes back down(let’s remember all that damage this past season was done over 4 consecutive starts) we’re talking about a guy who could pitch in a couple of all star games at best….and at worst be league average from day one.
I’d bet they’re lucky to get the 2007 Justin Germano out of any years of Geer’s career.
December 11, 2007 at 8:56 am
I have a feeling that we will see Geer in a Padre uni sometime this year. KT has hinted in a few interviews that Geer will be the Stauffer/Thompson/Germano/Cassel of 08. If the Pads have Wolf and Prior as there 4 & 5 guys then im sure Geer will get a few starts.
December 11, 2007 at 8:59 am
Does anyone know when the deadlin is to tender players?
December 11, 2007 at 9:18 am
This is why I don’t get too into prospects. All this stuff makes my head hurt.
MLBTraderumors says Fukudome wants a 5 year deal, the Cubs are offering 4/50M and are considering 5/65M. I think KT had best start looking elsewhere for outfield help.
December 11, 2007 at 9:18 am
Re: 11 … Wednesday.
December 11, 2007 at 9:21 am
6: I’m with Mark and GY on this. Eventually guys who rely on hitters pounding their sinking fastball into the ground, without getting any K’s, are college pitching coaches and not major league pitchers. But I was encouraged to hear that Geer’s fastball went up a few ticks. Maybe he’s an exceptionally bright guy who was getting lesser players to give him easy outs but has more K’s in his arm.
7: It wouldn’t be surprising to see half of last year’s draft class start the season in Elsinore. Kulbacki, one or both of the college CF, Canham, Sogard, Luebke (with a quick promotion to AA if he continues rubbing my nose in it), maybe a couple of other college arms. You’re not going to learn much about those guys sticking them in the MWL.
December 11, 2007 at 9:21 am
RE: 12 Cameron in CF for 2 more years…
December 11, 2007 at 9:28 am
Good stuff, Geoff. Looks pretty similar to mine, I’d say (and that has to be a good thing for me : )
You caught me off guard with Rincon — I didn’t even know much about him. Interesting ….
Inman is the most interesting guy, imo. To me, you definitely have to consider the scouting, which seems to say that his stuff is around average. Then again, you can’t overlook his numbers. For that age, they are pretty spectacular. Even in AA it’s not like he fell apart, as his k rates were still above 9 like you say.
December 11, 2007 at 9:32 am
9. I do think Inman has been a fantastic pitcher below AA - its just his ERA in AA and really lack of a plus pitch doesn’t make me that crazy about him. Also throw in the fact that he pitched in two pretty good pitchers parks in AA - and I just don’t see him as being this potential #3 starter as some have claimed (no one in this thread I believe it was in Baseball America).
There is a lot to like about him this year, a very good H/IP ratio to go along with holding batters to a .224 average. He was actually better in August - batters only hit .216 against him.
As for being 20 in AA it is quite an achievement, but also keep in mind different organization having very different views about promoting high school players. The Padres for example are pretty much entrenched with the philosophy of one level at a time for high school guys regardless of how well they perform.
I’m not saying that Inman is a bad pitcher by any means its just difficult to reconcile that many are very dubious of Geer, who has improved every year since he’s been with the Padres, while jumping on the bandwagon for Inman.
They both are the same types of pitchers, rely on location and command, throw three pitches for strikes. Neither has a big “out” pitch or blazing fastball. Both of them will have a chance to become effective back of the rotation MLB pitchers.
December 11, 2007 at 9:34 am
Great stuff.
December 11, 2007 at 9:48 am
14. I agree you shouldn’t see many guys from the Fort Wayne team in LE for 2008 - mainly because they weren’t very good.
From last year’s FW team keep an eye on Hunter and pitchers Drew Miller and probably Aaron Breit, although he may begin the year in Fort Wayne.
I’m with Geoff and Tom on being a fan of Kulbacki and I would really keep an eye on the catcher Mitch Canham. There are quite a few open spots on the Storm next year and it could be some interesting comp in spring training. One that comes to mind is second base between Sogard and Tom King.
December 11, 2007 at 10:00 am
17: I don’t see Geer improving every year, though. In fact his K/9 have gone down slightly at each stop. It may be that his 2006 Elsinore numbers look worse than they should because of park factors and his defense, so that his 2007 in San Antonio isn’t really an improvement, just a true measure. To say it differently in hopes of being more clear, I can’t give him credit for his 2007 looking better than his 2006 in the Cal League if the Cal League numbers were artificially bad.
Inman looks a lot like Brian Lawrence to me. Piled up the K’s and was a very effective major league pitcher until his arm went.
December 11, 2007 at 10:05 am
Geoff, No mention of Colt Morton. Just curious on your take on him.
December 11, 2007 at 10:07 am
re 20: Seriously guys you have to take age into account when looking at prospects. BLaw had some nice K rates too, but he was old for his league. Going through the minors at 22-25 is not the same as 19-22.
Look at it this way, if you have 2 kids in high school who are putting up similiar numbers, but one is a senior and the other is a freshman….who do you think is going to be a better pitcher in 5 years?
December 11, 2007 at 10:11 am
#21: Legit backup catcher, in the Mark Parent vein. I like Morton, but his inability to make contact and stay healthy have really held him back.
December 11, 2007 at 10:38 am
22: I do take age into account. But in Lawrence’s case, I don’t think it would matter as much. He had the same kind of profile as Inman - fantastic command, fringey stuff that got strikeouts. I also figure in a decline factor, in that almost no prospects turn out to be as good at the higher levels as they looked in the lower.
If Inman turns into Brian Lawrence I’ll be happy as heck.
December 11, 2007 at 10:56 am
So you’re willing to overlook 3 years? Seems kind of strange to basically be saying that someone won’t see any improvement from the ages of 21-24.
Otherwise, exactly how would Inman not turn into a better pitcher then Lawrence.
December 11, 2007 at 10:57 am
20. I thought Geer was improving on the basis of his ERA and his H/IP ratio. I can see your argument on the park factors of the Cal League - and Wolf Stadium is a much better place to pitch than the Diamond - but he is facing much better hitters in the Texas than Cal League which I think outweighs the park factors.
Geer attributes his success this year to doing a better job in controlling his two seam fastball - mainly keeping it down - and pitching to both sides of the plate. His fastball and other pitches have improved its just not going to be apparant on the gun or with K’s.
22. I do think age is very important but in some cases it can also obfuscate what someone is actually doing. Sometimes everyone can see a potential achiles heel with a player - for example power/and walk rates with Sean Burroughs and plate discipline/OBP with Josh Barfield but they get a pass because they are young for the league.
I too would be very happy if Inman developed into another Brian Lawrence, but Blaw also had a good/borderline plus sinking fastball. However right now I don’t see a plus pitch with Inman. What I do see is a very intelligent young pitcher who has good command but mainly relies upon a change of speeds to get guys out. The problem he has, as with Geer, is if he gets the ball up it gets crushed.
December 11, 2007 at 11:01 am
25. I think the best answer may be to see what he does in San Antonio this year. The big critique on him this year there was sometimes he tries to be too perfect which causes him to give up the big hit. If he can get past that I’m sure he’ll put up very good numbers.
Regardless of how well he does there is still going to be some concern about him - as opposed to a Mat Latos or Drew Miller - that he may not have enough of a fastball or a great plus pitch - such as Wade LeBlanc’s change - to project as more than a #4 or #5 pitcher.
December 11, 2007 at 11:06 am
25: Didn’t say he wouldn’t. But there are a lot more pitchers with strong K rates in A and AA, even young ones, than there are Brian Lawrences. Just trying to be realistic about his upside. If you’re certain he’s going to be better - not a possibility, but certain - then I have a number of investments in Nigeria I’d like to talk to you about.
26 (22): Totally agree. And I’m not saying Inman won’t get better; of the pitchers in this discussion, he seems more likely than Geer to add velocity.
December 11, 2007 at 11:13 am
Re 21: You’re not me. So who are you? Am I now Pat 1?
December 11, 2007 at 11:21 am
Re: 29 ha I went from Steve to Steve C for that reason, I sont know what happened to the other steve though.
December 11, 2007 at 11:27 am
Yeah there are certainly some problems with Inman:
-Scouts could be right, he might not have a dominant pitch to work off of, or he might not be able to ever fine tune a true MLB ready out pitch
-BB rate increased as he was promoted
-Major HR rate spike
It just seems like people are forgetting he was the minor league pitcher of the year for A ball in 2006 as a 19 year old.
Something a lot better then a #5 starter is evident there.
December 11, 2007 at 11:35 am
31. He could be - its just there is a big difference in hitters from A to AA. If you can change speeds and throw strikes you are going to do very well at those levels, even if you can’t throw a breaking pitch to save your life.
At AA and above you usually have to have some pitch that can get guys out with and the other two have to be good enough so the batter can’t sit on it.
Then again pitching is one of the most difficult things to project. I’m really looking forward to seeing him pitch.
December 11, 2007 at 11:36 am
31: I wouldn’t say “evident.” I’d definitely say “possible.” And Brian Lawrence, before his shoulder, was better than a #5 starter.
December 11, 2007 at 12:44 pm
John Conniff can speak better to how Inman pitched in the TL, but in the SL, he had a few rough games and then pitched well before being traded. He also (seemingly) faded down the stretch… I think the one thing we should all do is check our expectations of Inman at the door and revisit after ‘08.
December 11, 2007 at 7:23 pm
GY…. No mention of Craig Cooper, 1B/OF at Elsinore…
Not as flashy as Headly, and probably blocked by Blanks at 1B… not enough power right now (only 10 HR’s this year) but at only 22, can develop said power…
Anyone any thoughts, I saw him play this year, he went 3-4 with a triple… I like what I have seen.
December 11, 2007 at 7:24 pm
Iguchi accepted a one year deal with the Pads. Fukodome took the offer with Chicago. These are comments from KT at the State of the Padres meeting for season ticket holders. Look for Antonelli to try centerfield during the spring. KTsaid he talked with Mike Cameron’s agent tonight. Plus there are some trades that were on hold pending KFuc’s decision.
December 11, 2007 at 7:36 pm
[...] Top 10 Prospects for 2008 [Ducksnorts]: Geoff does a great job of profiling his top Padres organizational prospects. six of the top ten spots belong to former Wizards; Nick Hundley, Wade LeBlanc, Kyle Blanks, Cedric Hunter, Matt Antonelli, Chase Headley. Geoff also gives honorable mention props to David Freese, Josh Geer, Chad Huffman and Nick Schmidt. [...]
December 11, 2007 at 7:42 pm
Re: 36 I think we all knew that the Pads were not going to outbid the Cubs. Also there is no way that Antonelli should be in CF this year, thats way to much pressure to put on the kid.
December 11, 2007 at 7:43 pm
Geoff, excuse my mislabeling of your “noticeable omissions” as “honorable mention” - missed that on the first read through.
Aside from that, I didn’t see Will Venable. Thoughts?
Great job as always.
December 11, 2007 at 7:54 pm
Iguchi is a good signing for one year. He should bridge the gap to Antonelli nicely, and if he has a decent year he’ll leave as a type A free agent, as he was this year, only we will be able to offer him arbitration, which the Phillies couldn’t do by his contract.
We still need two more outfielders, one of them a centerfielder. Cameron and Jenkins would do nicely. Luke Scott is another good option instead of Jenkins, but it looks like Cameron is the only remaining viable centerfielder that has been prominently linked to the Padres.
December 11, 2007 at 7:56 pm
36: MLBTR has the Fukudome signing too, 4 years/$50 mil, maybe more. I think we all knew that a Fukudome signing was too exciting to happen to the Padres. Now we can focus on the boring 2 year deal to Mike Cameron. I’d rather trade for Jim Edmonds, at least that would be interesting.
December 11, 2007 at 7:57 pm
SAN DIEGO (AP) — Cy Young winner Jake Peavy of the San Diego Padres took a physical on Tuesday and the two sides anticipated finalizing a $52 million, three-year contract extension by Wednesday.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
December 11, 2007 at 8:00 pm
CHICAGO (TICKER) — Japanese free agent outfielder Kosuke Fukudome will be playing for the Chicago Cubs in 2008.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
December 11, 2007 at 8:00 pm
This is where losing out on Bradley starts to hurt. Most of the OF options(yeah I know there weren’t many to begin with) are already off the table and the Padres still need 2 OF, unless they feel like Hairston can be an everyday guy…..which it is obvious they do not otherwise why try to sign Bradley and Jenkins in the first place?
Getting Iguchi is a nice move by KT.
Kuroda is going to LA, in an all Japanese player night for MLB.
Dang Dodgers actually throwing around their money wisely this off season, I hope this isn’t a sign of things to come.
December 11, 2007 at 8:04 pm
Fukudome signs with Cubs, which is OK with me.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3151060
In this kind of auctions, where the player has common value among all possible employers, but different reservation price among bidders, who wins the auction ends up with the “winners curse”.
My one concern is whether the FO is not being realistic about the current player’s market, or is there a player out there that can really be paid less than 10-15M per year for similar productivity? Fukudome will be paid somewhere around 12M per year, Andrew Jones 18M per year. In my opinion Bradley for 5M per year would have been a great sign.
Great prospects list Geoff!
December 11, 2007 at 8:09 pm
Deep dish pizza over fish taco’s? bad choice Mr. Fukudome! But I guess with the kind of money he will be making in Chi town he can pay Ralph Rubio to fly out to Chicago and make him a fish taco whenever he wants.
December 11, 2007 at 8:19 pm
Kuroda to the Dodgers is going to pan out to be a waste of money I think. I saw him pitch in Japan and wasn’t impressed, plus aside from one good year, he hasn’t really set the world on fire over there. Igawa is far and away better, and look how he’s been.
December 11, 2007 at 8:19 pm
Good move by Padres now Matt can relax at Spring Training and just play his game at AAA. To bad though
December 11, 2007 at 8:24 pm
Speaking of Japanese baseball, sometimes to practice reading Japanese, I’ll pick up a manga. There’s one about baseball called Major, where it’s followed this guy from something like 3 years old, till now he’s in the Major leagues. In one of the recent ones, they are playing an event like the World Baseball Classic and USA uses a guy named Hoffman as it’s closer, and of course he blows the save versus Japan.
December 11, 2007 at 8:32 pm
Hey Jack, has Matt had experience playing in centerfield? Has he heard anything from the Padres about playing some there?
December 11, 2007 at 8:51 pm
Pretty amazing at the State of the Padre meeting tonight. They introduce SA, PD, GF, BB and KT. While SA’s talking, a phone call comes in and KT walks off the stage, is gone for a few minutes, then comes back in and sits down. It comes to his turn and he announces that KFuk will not be coming to the West Coast. SA later said that they all found out about it the same time we did. That’s steaming hot stove stuff, right there.
December 11, 2007 at 9:19 pm
#35: I like Cooper in a Scott Hatteberg kind of way. Looks like he could be a useful role player in the big leagues, with an outside shot at being something more.
#36: Thanks for covering that. I was pretty fired up when KT announced the Iguchi deal. His power dropped a bit last year, but he’s got a pretty broad base of skills and should be a good stopgap until Antonelli has a little more experience under his belt.
#39: No worries, Chad. As for Venable, I’m skeptical mainly due to his age. I keep hearing good things, but ideally a 24-year-old at Double-A should dominate the league, which he didn’t. Without having seen him play, and just going on his numbers, I’m thinking fourth outfielder type. As with Geer, I hope that I’m wrong and he turns out to be better than I think.
These are tough evaluations to make. I’m almost always rooting for the kids to succeed; at the same time, I have to give an honest assessment based on what I know.
December 11, 2007 at 9:21 pm
#51: Adding to your list, several players also showed up: Adrian, Kouz, Wolf, Jake, and Hoffy. Good times.
December 11, 2007 at 9:39 pm
Now that Fukudome Watch 07 is over and we missed out, I will obsess over tomorrow’s non-tender deadline, and cross my fingers that the Cubs don’t offer Prior a contract. Then we can swoop in and sign him to a two year Lieber like deal and see what he can do. He may not be in shape to start the season but if he can regain even 75% of his former form, he would make for a solid mid to late season addition to the rotation. I guess Josh Towers is also a non-tender candidate. Perhaps we will take a look at both.
December 11, 2007 at 10:37 pm
I’m very nervous pending what happens trade-wise. I know that it’s still early and KT has an excellent track record but this team isn’t shaping up nearly as well as I thought it would by now. Judging by the media coverage, everyone on the planet seemed to know the Cubs would outbid the Padres for Fukudome, so why didn’t they just spend the extra one mil to keep Bradley?
December 11, 2007 at 10:42 pm
Just up:
http://www.minorleagueball.com...../1555/1519
December 11, 2007 at 11:03 pm
56 … Thanks! I like Sickels’ conservative approach …
Of particular note is that he rates both Guevara and Gardner as “excellent Rule 5 pick”s … full Rule 5 details here: http://www.baseballamerica.com.....65311.html
December 12, 2007 at 5:11 am
So sad I missed the meeting last night…I have so enjoyed those over the past years…
Very happy about Iggy…I think he is a great fit for what we need!
Not so sad about Fukudome…that kinda cash would make it way too risky for me…wonder what it would take to trade with the Yanks for Godzilla…hmmmm.
December 12, 2007 at 5:12 am
#40 Ben
Matt has never played the outfield doesnt think he would like it but if thats where the Padres want him then I guess thats where he will play.
December 12, 2007 at 7:11 am
From the UT:
“If the Texas Rangers non-tender reliever Akinori Otsuka the Padres are a potential destination.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
That would be great but why would the rangers non-tender Aki?
December 12, 2007 at 7:26 am
60: Aki blew out his elbow last year and, according to Rotoworld, is “a candidate for Tommy John surgery”.
It looks like Fukudome signed for $12 million per year, and Bradley signed for $5 million plus incentives. Neither guy is a true centerfielder. Wouldn’t Andruw Jones at 2/$36M been a better fit for the Padres?
December 12, 2007 at 7:35 am
re 61: Yup A Jones was a no brainer considering this teams needs…they could have used Headley/Hairston in LF.
The question is where they spend the money now because it is obvious that they have at least 20M more in the budget(10M Fukodome, 5M Bradley + pitchers)
December 12, 2007 at 7:42 am
Mark…unless a trade comes soon, you would have to expect Cameron to get a chunk of that money…
Corey Patterson can’t really be on their radar…right?
December 12, 2007 at 7:43 am
as Kraslovic mentioned in his article this morning The Pads may make a deal with the Pirates. Does this make since to anyone else, Morris ($9.75M, $1M buyout for 09), Bay ($5.75M 08, $7.5M 09) and Nate McLouth for Barrett, Headley and Huffman?
December 12, 2007 at 7:44 am
Re: 63 the Pads will put Hairston in CF before they overpay for Cameron.
December 12, 2007 at 7:49 am
re 64: Chunk? I would think Cameron ends up with about 6M for 2008 when the suspension is taken into account.
To be honest, I think the deal with the Pirates is more likely then Cameron coming back, especially considering the icy reception last night.
December 12, 2007 at 7:50 am
#64: Yuck. I hope not.
December 12, 2007 at 8:11 am
If we’re trading Headley, I can guarantee that they don’t need to take back a 12M terrible SP for a corner outfielder coming off of a .750OPS season
December 15, 2007 at 7:15 am
[...] Geoff over at Ducksnorts, I actually like Freese quite a bit — every time I saw him in ‘07, he was pounding the ball to [...]