Weekend Winter Wrapup (10 Dec 07)
Mon, Dec 10, 2007
by Geoff Young
Mind is heavily on the book these days. Finished a first draft of the minor-league chapter over the weekend: 42 pages filled with profiles of 74 players. Kind of insane, if you ask me, but I wouldn’t have it any other way.
Somewhat related, I’ll be unleashing my list of Top 10 Prospects this week — either Tuesday or Wednesday depending on… stuff. Meanwhile, here’s what’s going on in the Caribbean leagues:
Thursday, December 6
Late results from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela:
- Estrellas 2, Escogido 0 (box). Vince Sinisi, batting third and playing left field, went 0-for-4 with a strikeout for Escogido. His team notched just two singles all game, one each by a couple of former Padres catchers, Raul Casanova and Miguel Olivo.
- Gigantes 3, Azucareros 1 (box). Callix Crabbe, leading off and playing left field, had two of his team’s four hits in a losing cause. Another ex-Padre, right-hander Dario Veras (!) collected his ninth save.
- Aragua 2, Margarita 0 (box). Wil Ledezma had a nice outing (6 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 SO) in a losing cause. I have no clue how (or if) he fits into the Padres 2008 plans.
Friday, December 7
- Estrella 6, Escogido 0 (box). Sinisi walked twice and struck out twice.
- Gigantes 5, Azucareros 1 (box). Crabbe played center in this one, doubling and walking in four trips to the plate.
- Hermosillo 6, Obregon 1 (box). Marshall McDougall is seeing a lot of action at second base. Batting second, he went 0-for-2 with two walks for Hermosillo. He also completed two double plays (both started by Vinny Castilla, who also homered in the game) on defense. Former Padres right-hander Leo Rosales, sent to Arizona in the Scott Hairston deal, worked a perfect ninth for the victors.
Saturday, December 8
- Guasave 11, Navojoa 5 (box). Oscar Robles hasn’t played the field in a few days; not sure what the story is there. Batting second and serving as DH, he went 0-for-2 before being lifted for a pinch-hitter. Luis Cruz, who has been starting at shortstop in Robles’ place, singled and doubled in five at-bats out of the #6 hole.
- Hermosillo 9, Obregon 4 (box). McDougall singled and walked in five plate appearances. Castilla, batting cleanup, went 4-for-4 with two homers and seven RBI. What’s up with that? Seriously, why didn’t we get any in ‘06?
- Mazatlan 5, Mexicali 2 (box). Brian Myrow, batting fifth and playing first base, singled in four at-bats for Mazatlan.
Sunday, December 9
Box scores from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela were unavailable as of this writing.
- Mexicali 7, Mazatlan 1 (box). Myrow went 0-for-2 with a walk. This was the first game of a doubleheader; Myrow didn’t play in the second.
- Obregon 3, Hermosillo 0 (box). McDougall, starting at third in place of Castilla (presumably exhausted from all the home runs), went 1-for-3 with a walk in a losing cause.
Whoomp, there it is…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
December 10, 2007 at 8:10 am
Despite the loss of Bradley yesterday, I still think we have a legitimate shot of winning the division this year, Fukudome or not. I think Hairston could be a capable LF, and it seems like the team really wants to get Headley in the line-up somehow.
I know that there has been some menton of interest in Josh Hamilton, and I was wondering how eveyone thought we matched up with the Reds. Maybe a Clay Hensley or Wade LeBlanc type? Is that too much?
December 10, 2007 at 8:29 am
Clay would work if he was healthy, I dont think Leblanc would be enough at this point.
Also as far as the 08 lineup:
Antonelli (I hope)
Giles
A-gon
Kouz
Greene
Bard
Cameron (If they cant get Fukudome)
Headley/Hairston
It may work but it is asking alot of Adrain, Kouz and Greene.
December 10, 2007 at 8:35 am
1. The Padres continued pursuit of corner outfielders makes me wonder how serious they are about playing Headley in LF.
2: We need to get a “If Clay Hensley was healthy” emoticon to save time.
December 10, 2007 at 8:48 am
Re: 3 ICHWH?
December 10, 2007 at 8:50 am
Re: 3 would you rather have Hairston/Headley in LF or Jenkins? at this point id take my chances with Hairdley
December 10, 2007 at 9:00 am
I hate to get all Chicken Little on everyone but things are all of a sudden not looking good. Bradley by himself is no huge loss, a week ago we were assuming he was gone anyway. But it sounds like Fukudome isn’t going to take a San Diego discount and if I were Cameron I’d want to stick it to the Padres for treating me like a fallback option. We may end up with Hairston in CF, Giles coming off an injury in right and Headley/Jenkins in LF. Too many question marks for my taste. Assuming that’s what we’re looking at, where does KT spend the money allocated for Fukudome? I hate to think it’s going into the mythical “trading deadline target of opportunity” war chest.
December 10, 2007 at 9:00 am
5: I wouldn’t object to giving Hairston a starting job. It just seems contradictory of the Padres to be really serious about using Headley in LF and trying to trade or sign several OF best suited to the corners.
December 10, 2007 at 9:04 am
7: That’s true. I too would have no problem with Hairston as our starting LF. I’d love for them to go out and aggressively pursue a CF somehow.
Though I don’t think its possible, would anyone do like a 3/30 for Aaron Rowand?
December 10, 2007 at 9:09 am
The UT reported that the Padres are talking to the Pirates about Jason Bay - part of me wonders if the Padres would do a Jason Bay for Kevin Kouzmanoff trade? Bay is about two years away from being eligible for free agency and Kouz would give the Pirates a 3b whom they would control for five more years and he probably would put up pretty good numbers in PNC. I’m sure the Padres would have to include a few more minor league guys - but not premium ones.
A Bay for Kouz deal has a Towers trade written all over it (1) I really believe Headley is more their guy at 3b than Kouz and it would clear an opening for him, (2) Towers did not want to part with Bay in the original Giles trade and finally, (3) the downside of the gamble is if Bay doesn’t work out or moves on the team would still have a quality young 3b in Headley at 3b.
The question is if the Pirtates have been shopping him - and I’ve read the Indians are interested - what are they offering?
December 10, 2007 at 9:09 am
RE: 8 No way would he sign for 3/30, I think he is looking for 5/60 and he will prob get it if he waits it out and a team starts to get desperate.
December 10, 2007 at 9:11 am
9: I’d be surprised if the Padres did that since the Pirates already have a young 3B that they want to try out next year (I can’t remember his name off-hand, but I know that it was one of the reasons people cited that the Headley for X & McClouth rumor was crap).
Also, Kouz appears to have a much higher upside than Bay at this point. Bay has been hobbled by inuries and Kouz raked in the last half of last year.
December 10, 2007 at 9:13 am
9: IIRC, the Padres didn’t want to part with Nady and the Pirates took Bay.
11: Neil Walker, one of the Pirates’ top prospects, moved from catcher to 3b.
December 10, 2007 at 9:14 am
Re: 9 last I heard the Indians were offering Franklin Gutierrez, Kelly Shoppach, and Cliff Lee but that deal is said to be dead so who knows.
Man I would hate to give up Kouz for Bay.
December 10, 2007 at 9:18 am
Re: 11 there has been multiple sources reporting that the Buc’s really covet Headley.
I dont mind Hairston in LF if the Pads get a CF who can hit, and im not sure if Cameron is that guy.
December 10, 2007 at 9:20 am
Mench DFA’d please dont let KT know.
http://www.madison.com/tct/mad.....ews/261323
December 10, 2007 at 9:45 am
15: I’d take Mench as a bench guy, but I don’t see him signing with us if he becomes a free agent. Not many FA hitters have Petco on their Christmas lists.
December 10, 2007 at 9:49 am
If the Pads sign mench it would be to atleast platton in LF. You make a good point about Petco though.
December 10, 2007 at 10:20 am
9: Thats all assuming Headley pans out. Kouz, proved he can hit in the majors, Headley is still unproven. If Headley was “their guy” then why make the trade for Kouz in the first place?
December 10, 2007 at 10:34 am
I think it’s most likely that the Padres will resign Mike Cameron. I think they’d like Fukadome but he’s a big question mark — it’s possible he turns into Ichiro but equally possible that he turns into Kaz Matsui. I just think he’s too big of a risk to give a big contract to. The Padres appear to think that CF is a defense first position for them which makes Cameron a logical fit for the team, especially if he’ll sign a two year contract.
Bradley doesn’t seem like too big of a loss, he’s just too injury prone to rely on. As good as he was for the Padres, he still probably missed close to half the games and do you think he’s going to get any healthier? You could gamble that he’ll play 150 games but realistically you’d need a good backup for him too (although I think Hairston could be that guy).
December 10, 2007 at 10:37 am
12. I thought the Pirates passed on Nady because of his MLB contract. I’m not sure if the Padres valued Bay more than Nady - I know at the time before his big season in Portland in 2003 they saw Bay profiling more as a 4th OF
December 10, 2007 at 10:39 am
18. I think Headley became “their” guy after this season. Going into 2007 there were some questions over whether Headely would hit with enough power and also I think the Padres weren’t that enamoured with Barfield’s plate discipline.
December 10, 2007 at 11:09 am
Geoff…you got a shout out on Friday from Rob Neyer…at least he was directing traffic to your article…
• At the Hardball Times, Studes takes a hard look at the efficacy of long-term contracts, and Geoff Young wonders why teams keep throwing stupid money at generic middle relievers.
December 10, 2007 at 11:27 am
It is interesting to me that Barrett is the topic of trade. Okay, he does not walk, but dude is a plus hitter behind the dish. How many back-ups can provide the potent offense like him?
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
I am not a huge fan of his, but his salary is not huge and dude can hit.
December 10, 2007 at 11:36 am
I think the Pads will keep him as a backup unless they can use him in a deal him for a CF/LF (ie Bay or Baldelli). Barrett would not be enough o get either player on his own but he would be an attractive part of a package deal for a team that needs an everyday catcher that does not want to commit to a guy long term (like Pittsburg or Tampa). I don’t think they will trade him for a mid level prospect.
December 10, 2007 at 11:41 am
There is so much to say about this newly designed protective cup, but for everyone else’s sake, I will refrain.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6C9aiWr0Vfg
If you play ball, or your kids do, maybe it should be a consideration for the protection of your jewels.
Also nice to see Chris Sabo…he looks better these days without the strap on glasses that he used to wear.
December 10, 2007 at 12:03 pm
If the Pirates will trade you Bay for Headley….that has to be a no brainer right?
I mean a year ago we would have all been doing back flips over that deal and Bay’s contract is still very club friendly.
December 10, 2007 at 12:07 pm
Re: 26 No way the Buc’s do that. I could see Headley/Barrett maybe but not Headley straight up.
December 10, 2007 at 12:09 pm
re 27: Ok ok they really twisted KT’s arm if they demand Barrett as well.
I’d throw in any prospect outside of the top 15 as well.
December 10, 2007 at 12:09 pm
19: I think the danger of just getting Cameron — if that’s even possible — is that means that we might be a very similar team to last year’s club. Great pitching, strong defense, weak offense. Sadly, that wasn’t quite enough last season and given the strengths of the Dbacks and Rox, and now perhaps the Dogs (which is still very debatable), that doesn’t appear like it would be enough next season. Bradley was a clear upgrade to our team offensively. Even our hottest hitters last season barely eclipsed what Bradley was able to do consistently. Further, Bradley’s presence in the lineup strengthens the entire lineup, with particular emphasis on his affect in the middle of the lineup.
December 10, 2007 at 12:22 pm
29: Our offense was really only weak at home. Looking at last years numbers, the Padres actually hit near the tops of the league away from Petco. The Padres just need to figure out ways to score at home. Obviously its harder to score at home, but they just need to change their approach at home.
December 10, 2007 at 12:23 pm
Has anyone discussed this yet? How does the Milwaukee justify a 1 year, $10million contract for Gagne?? Was NESN unwilling to forward the brew-crew copies of all of the games Gagne blew last year??? The guy was a complete mess. And, by complete mess, I mean he was like Britney Spears at a PTA meeting…
December 10, 2007 at 12:27 pm
Re: 31 Milwaukee is in a weak division and they lost their closer. They have a chance to make the playoffs for the first time this millennium. If they get another good starter they maybe the favorites to win the NL central. Also its only a one year deal if its a mistake they start over again next year.
December 10, 2007 at 12:28 pm
RE:31…I wondered the same thing…Buster Olney tried to explain it by saying:
“After Francisco Cordero took his $46 million deal with the Reds, the Brewers talked about moving Derrick Turnbow back into the closer’s role, but that would’ve been like investing your 401K money in the lottery. Turnbow pitched 68 innings last year and walked 46 and counting on him to be the closer would’ve been nuts. And as good as David Riske was for the Royals last year in middle relief, he has never been a closer before, and in fact, in his last month with the Indians, Cleveland generally steered him away from meaningful situations, feeling that he couldn’t handle close games.
The Brewers traded for Salomon Torres, but he may retire, and in any event, he had a horrible run as the Pirates’ closer.
No, the Brewers needed somebody else. They had to do something, because this team is too good and has too much potential for 2008 to have left such a gaping hole untended. They could have tried to trade for a closer, but they would’ve had to have backed up the truck to get Joe Nathan for one year, or Huston Street for a few years; that would have been a disproportional response.
The Gagne signing is a proportional response, an expensive patch-and-fill job that keeps them in the running for next year but also freed them from any long-term obligation in the volatile relief market. And they keep their prospects for another day, for other trade talks. ”
Can’t say that all of his arguments are flawed, but there are a lot of problems with this answer.
December 10, 2007 at 12:28 pm
If its a 1 year deal I can’t see complaining about paying something like 10M instead of 7M, given their situation and the relative terribleness of that division.
December 10, 2007 at 12:53 pm
30: Asking players to hit differently at home is a recipe for disaster. They went 47-34 last year in Petco.
If they want to improve the offense, they need to get better offensive players. The easiest place to do that is 2b. Every other position was good enough that making it better is going to be hard and/or expensive.
December 10, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Re: 35 and now LF…
December 10, 2007 at 1:04 pm
#36: That’s what we thought last year, and it worked out okay. LF is a pretty easy spot to fill.
December 10, 2007 at 1:07 pm
I doubt that Padres are seriously thinking about signing Fukadome. Sure he hit in Japan but there is this to consider:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com.....tsui.shtml
That’s not good, especially considering that first year he was only 28. Fukudome is 31 and coming off elbow surgery. He seems more like the kind of player the Cubs would throw money at, rather then the Padres.
December 10, 2007 at 1:12 pm
Re: 37 yes but it took them half the year to fill it. Its not a hard spot to fill but it is a spot that they can improve at from last year (in the 122 games bradley did not play in).
December 10, 2007 at 1:13 pm
36, 37: LF was pretty productive last year, even though it took a stew of players to do it. Hairston and Bradley were better than Sledge and Cruz were bad, but they didn’t get as many at-bats, so it looks around average to me. It’s harder to go from average to above-average.
It might be better to have one average, or slightly above, player for 162 games than to have a bad player for half the year and a really good player for the other half. I’m not sure how to even figure that out.
December 10, 2007 at 1:25 pm
Fukodome’s stats aren’t even close to anything Matsui did outside of 1 year.
Plus, you have scouts for a reason.
December 10, 2007 at 1:32 pm
The thing about Fukudome that doens’t make me feel the Padres are potentially wasting their money is the fact that Towers has wanted him and has watched him for a very long time. I have a ton of faith in our FO when it comes to assessing talent (okay, so Sledge was a mistake), so if KT wants Fukudome, there must be a reason for it.
December 10, 2007 at 1:46 pm
Re 41: My point is that Matsui looked like a potential difference maker when he came to the US. He was a SS coming off a great year in Japan in the prime of his career. But he’s been terrible since he came here. Fukudome’s stats were better in Japan but he’s keep in mind he’s 31 and coming off a major elbow injury. Best case is that he turns out to be similar to the other Matsui but Hideki’s stats in Japan were far superior to Fukudome’s and he was 2 years younger when he came over. The question is whether you want to spend $12m a year or so on a player whose best case is that he’s slightly worse then Hideki Matsui. I wouldn’t, especially considering he’d be playing out of position in CF.
December 10, 2007 at 3:04 pm
I did a quick analysis of the production from LF last year here is what I came up with:
LF had a line last year of .252/.340/.462
Bradley and Hairston only accounted for 36% of the total PA in LF last year, in that limited time they accounted for 44% of the hits, 60% of the HR’s, 54% of the RBI’s and 35% of the BB.
Without Bradley and Hairsron LF would have had a line of .229/.310/.417
December 10, 2007 at 3:19 pm
44: National League LF hit 278/358/478. Put a Petco filter for home games on those numbers and I expect they’re pretty close to what we got.
December 10, 2007 at 3:27 pm
Re: 45 my point was that the total numbers are skewed because 36% the pads had a great LF, the other two-thirds of the season the position was well below average.
December 10, 2007 at 3:28 pm
Imagine how much better the team will perform if they have a productive LF for the whole season.
December 10, 2007 at 4:00 pm
46, 47: I think the point is exactly that, LF is going to be less of a concerned than 2B. It’s going to be harder to improve LF than 2B. Imagine if Hairston is playing the whole season and it’s hard to see him produce like the other 64% and probably closest to the league average.
I’m more concerned with getting a capable CF right now to play defense at NL West ballparks, and getting more starting pitching, because really the Padres are not going to outslugged the rest of the division everyday playing half the season at Petco. The Padres needs to outpitch the other teams and score enough runs to win.
December 10, 2007 at 6:56 pm
I dunno if I agree with Keith Law completely. Turnbow is a wild-card, yes, but isn’t Gagne as well? I mean, he was a complete disaster last year in Boston. And, that was in a setup role. I would have thought that they could have found something more productive for that money. My gut says Gagne’s done and the brew-crew just left a $10million bag-of-crap on their fans’ front door.
December 10, 2007 at 6:57 pm
And, by “something more productive”, i don’t mean that they could have found a better pitcher. Seems to me they should have invested the money in reduced beer-pitcher prices for their fans…
December 10, 2007 at 7:18 pm
46. That’s right, but of the 4 teams that made the playoffs the average #’s are 295, 371, 521 and HR every 22AB. SH lifetime is 245, 299, 440 HR every 27AB.
December 10, 2007 at 7:51 pm
SAN DIEGO (AP) — Randy Wolf will get a nice payday if he can make 30 starts and pitch 200 innings for the San Diego Padres.
The left-hander, coming off shoulder surgery in September, finalized a one-year deal on Monday with the Padres that will top out at $9 million if he reaches all his incentives.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
December 10, 2007 at 7:54 pm
I’ve posted this before, but Jose Cruz Jr. hit .355/.429/.677 in 62 at-bats in April.
Granted, he was really bad after that, but left field wasn’t a black hole the entire first half. It was in May, June and some of July.
There’s a good chance Scott Hairston could match last year’s LF totals by himself.
December 10, 2007 at 8:10 pm
I remember a Bill James article from one of his abstracts about the reverse theory of park effects or something like that.
He used the Houston Astros as an example. Long story short, an extreme pitcher’s park like the Astrodome or Petco fools a team into thinking it has really great pitching and really poor hitting.
The Padres, for example, don’t have poor hitting. They ranked in the top half of the league or better in most hitting categories if you compare their road stats to other teams’ road stats.
The Padres’ concentration in the offseason should be with their pitching, not their hitting. Specifically, making sure the Nos. 4 and 5 starting spots are in order.
December 10, 2007 at 8:53 pm
My goodness… Several things:
9 & 27: Bay for Headley not enough? I’d want more from them… I wouldn’t do Bay for Headley straight up.
38: “Padres General Manager Kevin Towers said he is putting all other moves on hold until he finds out whether Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome is coming to the Padres or not.”
I don’t know, I think the Padres are serious… http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....pdate.html
54: The Padres ranked near the bottom of all of baseball in team OBP… Good power, no one on base…
December 10, 2007 at 9:01 pm
53: And a lot of the blackhole-ness of left field during that time spilled into right when OG went down, with right fielders hitting .261/.346/.395 on the year (compared to OG’s .271/.361/.416 line). Hopefully that will be improved next year too.
December 10, 2007 at 9:17 pm
The Padres were sixth in the NL in road OBP with .333.
It doesn’t matter where they ranked in all of baseball, because they wouldn’t be a .500 team in the AL anyway. It matters were they rank in the NL.
Their ranking of sixth in OBP on the road is an indication of how good they were, not their ranking of 15th in all games.
December 10, 2007 at 9:21 pm
As for the most important offensive stat — runs — the Padres were fourth in the league in road games. Better than the Rockies and behind only the Phillies, Mets and Atlanta.
December 10, 2007 at 9:22 pm
As for the Padres’ pitching, often lauded as the league’s best, their ERA was 4.42 on the road, eighth in the NL.
December 10, 2007 at 10:19 pm
An interesting article on the recent Rule V draftees.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....0-can-buy/
December 11, 2007 at 5:05 am
From the Washington Post beat writer…
“At the risk of burying the lead here, I heard from two people last week that the Nationals had spoken to the Padres about the possibility of trading for shortstop Khalil Greene. One person told me Chad Cordero would have been the centerpiece headed to San Diego, but another said it would have been Jon Rauch. With conflicting information, I never put it in the paper, and both people said the talks had fizzled.
But the other thing that came up: Lopez might have gone to San Diego as the shortstop (as well as Nook Logan, perhaps) to replace Greene.”
I know…I know…No I did not make this up. It was from his blog post about the Nats Middle Infield.
December 11, 2007 at 6:37 am
FUKUDOME IS COMING…
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3149919
To MLB…his decision on which offer to take is still up in the air. Pads and Cubs are still the front runners.
December 11, 2007 at 6:42 am
Cubs may be going to $50mm on Fukudome…The Pads have NO interest in Bonds…there has been no contact between the Pads and Aaron Rowand…”It wouldn’t hurt” Anonelli to get more AB’s in AAA…
All this and more…here:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
December 11, 2007 at 7:05 am
63: The quote I heard from Sandy and keep seeing in print is the Padres offer is “one of the two or three biggest offers” in team history. That’s not going to get it done, unless he’s saying the only bigger contract is Jake’s extension. My guess is it’s 4/48 at the most. I will be stunned if we end up with Fukudome.
December 11, 2007 at 7:18 am
This Brewers report has them looking for a 3B and putting Braun in LF…Obviously they let Jenkins walk and waived Mench for a reason…Outside of TG Jr, is there a trade possibility here? Frankly, we have two 3 baggers and if that is what they need…
http://blogs.jsonline.com/brew.....rting.aspx
You have to think they would value Headly more than Blalock.
December 11, 2007 at 8:00 am
Re: 61 Cordero? Come on CM tell the truth you were the tipster for the Washington Post beat writer?
December 11, 2007 at 8:41 am
Re: 66 — I wish…Actually had the blog sent to me by a buddy in DC…and no, neither he, nor I, have any contact with that beat writer.