I picked up the Bill James Handbook 2008
The winter season ticket holder event took place at Petco Park on Tuesday night. Tales of the Heliosphere has details here, here, and here (hat tip to Gaslamp Ball).
Quick caveat before we get too far into this. We have exactly one year’s worth of data for Black, so it’s hard to call any of what he did “tendencies” just yet. Still, it’s what we have, so we’ll use it.
To the tables (numbers in bold denote league leader):
| Mgr | Yr | LUp | PL% | PH | PR | DS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: LUp, number of different lineups used; PL%, percentage of players who had the platoon advantage at the start of the game; PH, pinch hitters used; PR, pinch runners used; DS, defensive substitutes used. | ||||||
| Black | ’07 | 115 | .62 | 279 | 18 | 13 |
| Bochy | ’06 | 111 | .60 | 264 | 64 | 48 |
We see no appreciable difference in the number of lineups used or frequency with which platooning was employed. The items that stand out here are in those two rightmost columns. Bochy used pinch runners and defensive substitutions a lot more than Black. In 12 seasons as manager of the Padres, Bochy led the league in pinch runners used four times. He also averaged 48 defensive substitutions in his three seasons at Petco Park. Black used the latter strategy less than any other manager in MLB last year.
| Mgr | Yr | Quick | Slow | LO | RCD | LS | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: Quick, quick hooks; Slow, slow hooks; LO, long outings by starting pitchers; RCD, relievers used on consecutive days; LS, long saves; Rel, relievers used. (You’ll need to buy the book to get precise definitions for some of these, but you get the general idea.) | |||||||
| Black | ’07 | 63 | 28 | 13 | 122 | 0 | 485 |
| Bochy | ’06 | 42 | 42 | 24 | 111 | 2 | 475 |
This surprises me. It often seemed as though Black stuck with his starters (especially the old guys) too long, but reality indicates otherwise. Black was more protective of his starting pitchers and a little more liberal in his usage of relievers — at least in his first year — than Bochy. I wonder if this has anything to do with the fact that Black was a starting pitcher for most of his career?
| Mgr | Yr | SBA | SacA | RM | PO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: SBA, stolen base attempts; SacA, sacrifice bunt attempts; RM, runners moving with the pitch; PO, pitchouts ordered. | |||||
| Black | ’07 | 79 | 85 | 73 | 56 |
| Bochy | ’06 | 154 | 77 | 106 | 21 |
The reduction is stolen base attempts is largely a function of the fact that Black didn’t have Josh Barfield and Dave Roberts at his disposal. Sacrifices? Pretty much everyone in the National League (except Clint Hurdle, who never tires of the tactic) bunts the same amount. Black doesn’t get the runners moving as often as Bochy, who was famous for the move. Well, marginally well known for it, anyway. Black loved pitchouts — called more of ‘em than any other manager in baseball. Heck, he called more of ‘em than Bochy did over the span of three full seasons at Petco Park. I would like to see a breakdown of how often Black’s pitchouts were successful. It sure seemed like they didn’t help any. Then again, I’m not even sure why the Padres were pretending to hold runners. When guys are that slow the plate, there’s not much you can do.
| Mgr | Yr | # | Good | NG | Bomb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: #, intentional walks issued; Good, intentional walks resulting in a good outcome; NG, intentional walks not resulting in a good outcome; Bomb, intentional walks blowing up on the manager. (Again, refer to the book for precise definitions.) | |||||
| Black | ’07 | 48 | 28 | 20 | 11 |
| Bochy | ’06 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 10 |
Black didn’t issue as many free passes as Bochy, but they sure came back to bite him more often.
| Mgr | Yr | W | L | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: Seriously, if you have to ask… | ||||
| Black | ’07 | 89 | 74 | .546 |
| Bochy | ’06 | 88 | 74 | .543 |
Black ran into an insanely hot Colorado team. Bochy ran into an insanely cold St. Louis club that got hot at the Padres’ expense and won the World Series. Otherwise, not much difference.
Winter Leagues
- Hermosillo 9, Culiacan 7 (box). Marshall McDougall, batting second and playing second base, went 1-for-5.
- Mexicali 9, Navojoa 0 (box). Oscar Robles, still at DH, walked in four trips to the plate. Luis Cruz, batting seventh and playing shortstop, went 1-for-4 with a double.
- Mazatlan 1, Guasave 0 (box). Brian Myrow, batting third and playing first base, drew three walks and laid down a sac bunt (which set up the game’s only run). Yep, the good ol’ 0-for-0.
There it is. Happy Wednesday…
Just read that MGL has Everett at 3 WAR which is about a win (10 runs or so) ABOVE average. He is a tremendously underrated player.
Link: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/sabermetric_moves_of_the_2008_pre_season/#258
200: $60 is such a gross under-estimation of the prices that it’s not even funny. The CHEAPEST ticket last year for the World Series at Petco would have been $150. I know because I wanted to buy playoff tickets and was completely stunned by how expensive they were. Are you telling me that the average price (the cheapest was $150, most expensive field seats – not boxes- was round $300) rose more than $130 in a year? Come on man, I know you can’t honestly beleive that.
201: Interestingly, that’s about 5 runs (half a win) worse than you had Khalil. Since Everett is so incredibly undervalued, he’s going to be much cheaper than Khalil over the next few years. Everett is two and a half years older, so he’ll likely see age related decline before Khalil, and he might not be quite as good defensively after his broken leg. However, based on these numbers I would say it makes sense to bring in Everett and to look into what Khalil would bring back in a trade.
203: Man I think that’s such a bad idea that I can’t even explain. As you’ve pointed out Everett may never be as sound defensively after his inury and he’s nowhere near as potent offensively as Khalil.
Do great defensive infielders decline with age?
Phantom, I don’t get what you are saying. Are we in agreement that the Tigers made more then $10m in revenues do to their longer playoff run? Or do you think that the revenues that they publish in Forbes don’t include playoff revenue? Why would they do that? You would think that revenues would include everything. But I guess you could be right, that might just include regular season revenue (although that wouldn’t make any sense of course).
Nats cut Nook Logan…
Re: 203 CM are you posting under a different name now.
Good point Ben … about the injury. If the injury has changed his “true talent” level then that projection by MGL may be off. But I guess who knows about that at this point. I would definitely consider bringing in Everett … as a backup if he would or maybe like you’re saying (with trading Greene).
Looking back at my post on Khalil, I actually ended up calling Greene a 3 WAR player, so I’m guessing they are pretty close … although, I’ve messed up things in the passed and I definitely may be off.
204: Right, which is why you bring him in before dealing Khalil so you can get a good look at him. Based on MGL’s numbers, Everett is one of the greatest fielders in the history of the game. If the Padres’ internal numbers match that, and they bring him in and evaluate him and determine he hasn’t lost anything, then Everett is likely 20 runs better than Khalil on defense. Sure, he gives back 20-30 of those on offense, but presumably the players Khalil would help us acquire in a trade would make up that gap and then some.
But good luck explaining a move like that to the 1090 callers.
er, that should be “past” in that last line.
206: I have no idea if Forbes’ numbers include the playoffs. But if you bear out the math as I’ve done, it seems highly unlikely that they do include revenues from the playoffs.
I guess we’ll just agree to disagree on this, but Nielsen shows Detroit to be a significantly larger media market than San Diego. Based on that fact alone, I sincerely doubt that their broadcast revenue is anywhere near as low as that of the Padres, let alone lower.
210: I still think it’s way too risky to trade Khalil and hang all of your hopes on a banged up Everett. Especially since Evrett’s offensive numbers have been slightly inflated by Minute Maid (which makes things REAL scary). I do, however, understand that Khalil could potentially bring quite a haul this off-season and it would be reckless of KT not to listen. However, I don’t think anyone is willing to offer something that would make it prudent to ditch Khalil.
205: Omar Vizquel has kept being really, really good into his 40s now. I would have guessed that defense would be one of the first things to decline because of a loss of speed, but there’s a counterexample to that guess.
208: Not CM, and in general I have a pretty high opinion of Greene. He’s an above average shortstop. It’s just in this case I have been convinced the market is improperly valuing someone as awesome defensively as Everett. Plus it would be exciting to watch one of the greatest defenders in history in action (I’m too young to have appreciated Ozzie Smith).
209: I actually went back and looked for that post, but missed the point where you adjusted the runs above replacement for playing 80% of the games. Before that you had him at 1.5 wins above average, so I just assumed that translated into .5 wins better than Everett.
174: Awesome post – I think it’s the first time you’ve been positive on this board.
I think a lot of would have liked to see the Padres sign Andruw (he’s one of my faves of ALL TIME) or Fukudome or trade for Miguel Cabrera or sign Rick Porcello. However, KT has led this organization to its best 4 year stretch in team history. And when they don’t sign a player because he got too pricey I’m willing to cut him/them slack (a lot of it) because I remember how bad the team was from ’99 through ’03 and how bleak the farm was prior to Fuson joining the club.
So when the team has an opening (like right now at CF, back-up C, and 5th SP) I’ll debate the merrits of potential candidates but I will not gripe and moan about what should have been because 1: I don’t have ALL the details, and 2: I trust their ‘big picture’ judgement – they’ve earned my trust.
Thanks for looking at my posts, Ben ; )
I think I’m finally getting better at the whole estimating value thing, like I did with Iguchi today. Who knows, though … even guys like Tango and MGL disagree by quite a bit on some players. When they are just rough estimates using different numbers, adjustments, etc. it can be pretty tough. MGL has an actual projection system and everything and Tango is pretty brilliant, so I’d trust those guys. We’ll have to see if they do Iguchi and if I’m close at all.
Anyway, Greene’s probably somewhere in that range — high 2′s, low 3′s. He’s a very good player. Everett is too, though (in a much different way). It’ll be interesting to see if they make a play towards him or not.
210: If you can get something along the lines of Pie and Hill or Adam Jones in a deal that involves Greene, you have to do it (if you pick up Everett). Greene is only going to get more expensive and he probably wont be worth it. Having Everett would be outstanding. He is still relatively young and is the best SS i have ever seen and will probably be cheap because he is greatly underrated. You would make up what you lose with Khalil with Jones or Pie/Hill (or something comparable) easily and most likely add a few wins. A lot of people like Khalil but if something comes up that will blatantly improve your team you HAVE to do it.
I’m OK with every move so far — and I can even understand not signing Andruw Jones — as long as they have a plan for CF. However, if they sign Mike Cameron and Geoff Jenkins I’ll be very disappointed. For the same money they could get better production out of Jones and Scott Hairston. I’m very high on Hairston, I think they should give him the everyday LF job. I think it would be great if he can play CF but I don’t think he can. Again, my main problem with this off-season is that I can’t figure out what they are doing. They don’t want to sign one player for $18m a year but it don’t think they’d have a problem with signing Cameron and Jenkins for more then that. To me, that doesn’t seem logical. Again, it seems like they value low-ceiling players over anyone else.
217: I definitely agree with you about Hairston. I think he’s earned a shot at starting.
You all realize that if the Padres pick up Everett he’d probably struggle to hit .200. I’m not sure any team could afford to play someone who hits 210/250/300 no matter how well he plays defense.
$18 million per year for Jones was steep. I read that no one else had an offer even close, so I think Jones was lucky the Dodgers felt he was worth that much.
219: They pay .100/.150/.150 hitting pitchers based on their ability to prevent runs ; )
Josh Towers was also non-tendered, so he’s another option for that fifth spot.
Whoa, just saw Otsuka got non-tendered, which suggests he’s going to need Tommy John. Not sure why else Texas would non tender a guy that’s been a well above average reliever when healthy.
re:222 gotta figure kt will make a run at towers.
schlom – i betcha jenkins/cammy dont make 18m together next year, and also, from a risk standpoint, neither have as large a potential downside (or an upside). For them both to tank seems unlikely – I wouldnt be that suprised for Jones to have a second consecutive bad year
re:223 Wow they got taken in the Young/Gonzalez trade
224: If he’s even close to healthy that was a dumb move. But then teams that have problems putting together a pitching staff aren’t known for making smart decisions with their pitchers.
If Everett is healthy, the Padres seriously need to consider signing him.
Wow, heated discussions today. Nice.
I can’t believe Adam Everett is cut. Who’s going to play SS in Houston? The Padres should definitely consider getting him to back up Greene. Yes, he’s recovering from the leg injury. I hope he’s getting better so he can play ML SS again.
The Padres should trade for Willits/DeJesus to play CF next season.
Getting Prior would be a good move too for the pen/long relieve to get his arm back in shape with an option for 09. I think there’ll be plenty of teams interested in Prior.
227: Tejada will play SS in houston
Should the Padres consider getting Wily Mo Pena (124 OPS+ with Washington last year) to play CF?
#227 – Tejada looks to be slated there for Houston at this point, hence the cutting of Everett. Great backup but almost too good to be true with the exception of his complete lack of offense.
It doesn’t appear that Willits or DeJesus are/were in the plans of the FO for the time being but their plans seem to be falling apart as of late. Only time will tell for now.
With the news of Prior’s medical records souring the Friars, I doubt we will see him here. I wonder where we see him and in what capacity.
Also, I am really wondering how many of the players we just saw non-tendered in the last hours are going to show up on the Mitchell Report this afternoon. That would explain some of the minor surprises that I felt.
So, now, the Giants is full of OF also. I’d think that Winn, Doc, and Rowand are starting so that leaves Lewis/Davis as forth OF. Can the Padres get one of them to platoon CF?
I’m probably late on this, but Prior was released:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3152880
116: Sorry I’m late to the response, but to say that Fukudome is an “unproven 31 year old” is like saying the Beatles were “a musical group with guitars”. I’m not saying that he’d be the Beatles of Baseball, but judging the Fukudome signing on straight stats completely ignores how much of a draw he would be. Look how many people love Greg Maddux. Could his $10 million last year have been spent on a more effective pitcher? Probably. Would there have been another pitcher with as much star power? Probably not.
Also, I read through most, but not all of the rest of the thread, and I gotta say… Schlom, you’re being a little bit of a defeatist/revisionist. The San Diego Padres were considered by most experts to be either the best or the second best team in the National League for basically all of last season, next to the Mets. The season that the Cardinals won their most recent World Series, they were considered to be the NL’s weakest option. Same goes for the Rockies, despite the short-term memory bandwagoners trying to explain the Rockies late success. The Padres have managed to build consistent success without relying on overpaid superstars so let’s take the finger off the panic button and trust that KT isn’t the type of person to not notice that he isn’t fielding enough outfielders.
Also, I hope it didn’t come off like I was calling you names, Schlom. I’m just very much a “glass half full” kind of guy, maybe to a fault. Also, I just feel like the Padres have an exceptional number of Smart Baseball Guys in the front office and I get defensive on their behalf when people don’t consider the recent seasons as being successful. Like I said… Maybe a weakness on my part, though I like to think that I’m looking at this stuff with a semi-critical eye.
Man, this living on the East Coast thing makes it difficult to be a regular contributing member of the DS community…althought I get a kick out of the love being shown!
Re: 180…Name me one hitter developed by the Padres…just one in the last 10 years…no, KG does not count. You need to have an OBP better than .300 to even be in the discussion.
Re: 185 — Tigers make entirely more money on Radio/TV than the Pads…I see this $10mm number thrown around and I will have to cry BS on it. That may be the difference in the TV deal alone…then throw in the radio money and the merchandice revenue and the gate revenue from away games (yes, the visiting team gets a cut) and I guarantee you that the Tigers pulled in WAY MORE than $10mm over the Pads…probably safe to assume at least double if not triple that or more.
Re: 208 — No, but I have a new friend…
I have been advocating giving Everett a shot at SS for 2 years now…no, really, go back and look at some of the trade discussions around the ASB…KG’s defense is not in the same caliber as Everett and his offense, while showy, does not make up the difference, especially when you consider what KG might bring in a trade. You telling me that a Chicago (AL or NL) or Boston, or even the Blue Jays would not jump at the chance to bring on KG? If we can get a solid ROI for KG, we need to do it!
Finally, you have to believe that the reports about the Pads being very concerned about Prior’s medical reprots are a bit overblown. Could it be that info was leaked so as to make sure the Cubs thought the Pads backed off and won’t be brought back to the table. I lay 2-1 odds that Prior signs with the Pads…probably a 2 year deal or 1 + option deal…
Two other interesting names…
Johnny Estrada, Catcher, was released by the Mets.
Ben Johnson, OF, yes, that Ben Johnson, ex-Padre, released by the Mets.
And I am not advocating an Estrada signing…just interesting.
Hey if the Pads trade Barrett I would love for them to sign Estrada!
Im sure Aki is coming back to SD, he loves it here, we love him here, its win win. I would imagine that if he does need TJ then the pads will sign him to a minor league deal and wait for him to rehab.
I also would like the pads sign Nook Logan and give him a shot.
I think Everett would waste a spot on the bench because he cant hit let alone PH, and with Greenie you dont need a late defensive sub. I know he would be great to have if Greenie gets hurt but he’ll be just a waisted bench spot when Greenie is healthy.
214: Now that was an awesome post. Great summary of my perspective on the FO; thanks for writing that up for me, Peter.
DEX: Great to have you post here. I haven’t posted at Gaslamp Ball, but I love reading your blog, too! It’s a dynamite blend of smart, knowledgeable baseball and fantastic humor. Good to have you over here.
238: I like Estrada as a backup too.
Nook Logan? I wasn’t aware the Storm needed a CF.
#240: Well, we did “lose” Yordany Ramirez.
Everett signed with the Twins. Very nice move, defensive replacement for Brendan Harris?
I don’t like Estrada as a backup at all. He’s a bad defender, his OBPs are usually around .300, and his SLGs are usually around .400. And beyond that, he is generally unliked by his teammates. I’d rather go with Colt Morton or poach someone from another team’s AAA roster than add Estrada.
Nice overview – I posted a follow-on at my blog. It looks at some of the differences called out in this original post.