Ducksnorts Drag Racing

by Geoff Young on Oct 05, 2007 (7) Comments

This is way off-topic, but with baseball season over, I thought some of you might be looking for other things to do. My buddy Don and his daughters have gotten themselves into the NHRA Jr. Drag Racing League, and I’m proud to announce that Ducksnorts now sponsors their car, “Double Trouble.”

I went out to Barona last weekend to watch them race, and took a bunch of pix. I’m not a huge car racing aficionado, but these guys showed me a great time. Check ‘em out (or get involved) if you’re so inclined, and tell ‘em Ducksnorts says hey…

Double Trouble on the track

Ducksnorts is proud to sponsor Double Trouble

Double Trouble down the stretch

Review the Preview: Hitters

by Geoff Young on Oct 04, 2007 (82) Comments

Back in April, I wrote my annual “Looking Forward to…” piece on the Padres over at Baseball Think Factory. In the interest of holding myself accountable, and maybe learning something in the process, I thought we should do a quick review. We’ll cover the position players today and the pitchers on Monday.

Marcus Giles, 2B

What I said: “…he should provide the Padres with a nice mix of on-base skills and gaps power. On balance, Giles probably is no worse an option than last year’s starter, Josh Barfield.”

What happened: Technically this last statement was true, but only because Barfield had a disastrous season in Cleveland. Giles hit .229/.304/.317 and eventually lost his starting job to Geoff Blum. Giles had a terrific April (.327/.376/.459) and played solid defense, but a .191/.277/.268 line over 340 plate appearances from May 8 onward killed his season. On-base skils? Gaps power? No, and no.

Brian Giles, RF

What I said: “At age 36, we shouldn’t expect anywhere near a full rebound [to his performance in Pittsburgh]. A return to somewhere between his ’04 and ’05 levels, however, isn’t out of the question.”

What happened: He basically repeated his ’06 season, sacrificing a little in the on-base department to make minimal power gains. For the second straight season, Giles notched a career-low OBP. This doesn’t necessarily bode well for the future. On the bright side, after being sidelined for much of the first half, he hit .266/.353/.461 after the All-Star break. Giles isn’t a star at this stage in his career, and folks need to get over that. He still provides decent value on offense and does a very nice job negotiating a difficult right field at Petco Park.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

What I said: “Gonzalez’ power numbers may have taken some observers by surprise, but with his ability to drive the ball hard to all fields, those most likely are the result of real growth and not a fluke.”

What happened: Well, his ISO increased from .186 to .220. As we’ve already noted, Gonzalez’ drop in batting average this year has masked his growth in the power and on-base departments. Needless to say, ’06 was not a fluke.

Josh Bard, C

What I said: “Bard won’t repeat that [2006] performance in expanded duties this year, but he should do a pretty nice Johnny Estrada impression (with a chance of pushing into Michael Barrett/Ramon Hernandez territory), which isn’t too shabby.”

What happened: I underestimated Bard…

Player BA OBP SLG OPS+
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
Bard, 2007 .285 .364 .404 105
Estrada, career .280 .320 .406 86
Barrett, career .266 .322 .426 88
Hernandez, career .263 .328 .423 98

If you think it’s unfair that I present Bard’s ’07 against those other guys’ career numbers, know that if I used their ’07 stats, this would look even worse.

Mike Cameron, CF

What I said: “At age 34, Cameron hasn’t yet experienced any appreciable decline. To the contrary, last year he finished with a career-best .482 SLG despite his slow start and the fact that he plays half his games in a pitchers’ park.”

What happened: I didn’t really commit to any predictions with Cameron, which was a mistake. In my head, I thought he would repeat his ’06 performance, but in fact, he slipped quite a bit. Cameron’s batting average dropped 26 points, but that could be due to anything. More disconcerting are the 25 point swoon in ISO and the 22 point rise in K/PA. Normally I’m more in the “strikeouts don’t matter” camp, but when the power goes down and the inability to make contact goes up, that raises some red flags for me. Cameron still is an above-average center fielder who should command plenty on the open market this winter, but I’m not sure that it’s in the Padres’ best interest to be the ones flipping the bill.

Khalil Greene, SS

What I said: “He still looks like a good candidate to bust out with a few Rich Aurilia/Jose Valentin type campaigns.”

What happened: Sort of, but not really…

Player BA OBP SLG OPS+
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
Greene, 2007 .254 .291 .468 98
Valentin, 1996 .259 .336 .475 99
Aurilia, 1999 .281 .336 .444 106

The OBP is miserable, of course, but I like to focus more on what a player can do than what he cannot. What Greene did is knock 74 extra-base hits, play a solid shortstop (this was the first year that both his fielding percentage and his range factor were better than league average), and most importantly, stay healthy enough to play 153 games. Any discussion of Greene runs the risk of turning into a religious debate about his value to the Padres, but if we focus on his actual contributions, we see a useful player. Greene is not as good as his most ardent supporters would have you believe, nor is he as bad as his detractors might claim. He is, like Valentin and Aurilia before him, an above-average shortstop with flaws in his game.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B

What I said: “There’s cause for enthusiasm with Kouzmanoff, although it should be tempered somewhat by the fact that he’s already 25 years old. Think of guys like Mike Lowell and Todd Zeile — not stars, but useful players…”

What happened: Kouzmanoff hit .275/.329/.457. His line stood at .121/.178/.209 through May 13 but manager Bud Black, in one of his finer moments, stuck with Kouz, who hit .310/.364/.514 from that point forward. Baseball-Reference hasn’t come out with their latest version of comparable players yet, but Kouzmanoff’s ’07 looks a lot like Lowell’s ’01 (.283/.340/.448). Lowell was two years older and a much better defender than Kouz, but that doesn’t detract from the overall point, which is that there’s a lot to like in Kouzmanoff’s rookie campaign.

Terrmel Sledge, LF

What I said: “Sledge could end up being a real nice surprise in 2007 and make the deal with Texas look even more lopsided than it already is.”

What happened: BBBBBBBBBBZZZZZZZZTTTTTTTTTTTT…….. Sledge was terrible. Sometimes you give a guy a chance and he doesn’t do anything with it. Sledge showed some power and on-base skills, but his inability to make consistent contact or play the outfield negated those. I don’t know what exactly I’d expected, but what I got was another Mark Bellhorn.

Geoff Blum, UT

What I said: “He hasn’t seen an OBP north of .300 since 2002 and his range isn’t great, so you don’t want to see him in the lineup more than once or twice a month, but he won’t kill you if used in moderation. Unfortunately, if the previous two seasons are any indication, Blum most likely will see close to 300 plate appearances.”

What happened: He broke the .300 OBP barrier (.319) and notched 370 plate appearances. Blum finished the season starting at second base, which is to say that finding a more permanent solution at the position remains a priority.

There you have it. We’ll get the pitchers next week…

Thank You, and Winter Plans

by Geoff Young on Oct 03, 2007 (179) Comments

So, now what? Before we get to that, I’d like to thank everyone for visiting, participating, and otherwise being a part of Ducksnorts again throughout the 2007 season. We laughed, we cried, we debated the great issues of our time.

Or something like that.

There are far too many folks to thank individually, so I’ll keep the list short. Thanks to Peter Friberg, who did a great job covering prospects for us this year. Thanks also to my unbelievably accommodating wife for believing in this crazy dream of mine. Words can’t begin to express my gratitude.

The rest of you know who you are. If I listed all your names and contributions, we’d never be done, so you get one giant pat on the back.

* * *

This is going to be a busy winter — for the Padres and for me. Sure, the season is over but we’ve got plenty more to cover over the next several months. We’ll want to figure out how the Padres can shore up some holes (second base, left and center field, back end of the rotation), keep track of guys in winter ball, and other stuff I’m forgetting. I may not have original material up every day, but we’ll always have something to discuss.

Also, I’ve got a book to write. I’m working on the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual (I’ll be sharing a rough outline with you soon) and that has me pumped.

Speaking of which, I’ve been sneaking off to the downtown library and poring over microfilm versions of the San Diego Union from 1969. Hey, where else are you going to learn that Ollie Brown hit seven homers in spring training? Or that Al Ferrara played piano at Carnegie Hall when he was 10 years old?

I’m still thinking about player dashboards. I’m still thinking about a lot of things…

* * *

I’ll also be posting daily at Knuckle Curve throughout the postseason and beyond. Who knows what else. Right now I’ve got a radio segment up at Outsider Radio and an article at Hardball Times (yeah, I wrote the Rockies playoff preview). You may or may not want to listen/read. Personally I find that ignoring stuff doesn’t make it go away, but that’s me.

Anywho. Second straight day I have no flow. I am off my game, need some R&R.

Finally, because folks ask, you may help support the Ducksnorts cause (via PayPal) if you are so inclined by clicking the button below. Always an invitation, never an obligation. Thanks again for everything. Rock on…

 

Reality: You’re Soaking in It

by Geoff Young on Oct 02, 2007 (234) Comments

Where do I even begin? That this isn’t the way I’d wanted to see the season end seems so beyond doubt that it hardly bears mentioning, and yet I just mentioned it. Even though a thing is obvious, it still needs a voice.

I hate writing this. I hate thinking this. Honestly? I hate everything about this.

But you can’t go through life hating, right? Well, you can, but it’s probably not a good idea. Besides, it’s just baseball.

“Just baseball.” I hate that, too. Like that somehow negates it all, makes the experience less important, less real. Yeah, buddy, screw you.

Anyway. Now you see the problem. I can’t even get started. Do I whine about Monday night’s outcome (box score), or do I express gratitude at having witnessed a tremendous game that most teams didn’t have the right to play? Do I make excuses for Jake Peavy, Brady Clark, and Trevor Hoffman, or do I give the Rockies their props for outplaying our guys?

Yeah, I said it. They outplayed the Padres. Deal, yo.

Or maybe we can think about Milwaukee. Sure, let’s play “what-if” there instead. Why did Hoffman throw eight bazillion change-ups in a row? What if he shows Tony Gwynn Jr. a fastball? (What if Gwynn hits it?) Or perhaps we’ll go back further and pin the blame on Mike Winters for baiting Milton Bradley, Bradley for gobbling it up, and Bud Black for taking out his own guy in the process. Or we could…

Here’s what happens when you go down that road. Aside from the fact that you make yourself miserable, you’re not even being honest with yourself. Replace every “should have” throughout the course of a 163-game season with “could have” and see what happens. When you say “should,” you’re basically conceding that games don’t even need to be played. Yeah, probability and all that. Okay, fine; I get it. But on the field, none of that matters. The only legal tender currency is what actually happens — you may know it better as reality.

Painful? Sometimes, yes; sometimes, no. But it remains constant even as it constantly changes.

I’m not making sense again. Sorry, it’s been that kind of life.

Another approach would be to take pride in knowing that the Padres, despite missing two of their starting outfielders and getting negative contributions from the best starting pitcher and best reliever in franchise history, pushed an improbably hot Colorado team to the edge of a mile-high precipice. This one might work better a few months from now, when the throbbing is less intense.

How can we reflect at a time like this? How can we analyze and be philosophical? Why would we want to even if we could? Now that the season’s over, it’s not like there’s a sense of urgency. Grieve, mourn, vent. Whatever it takes. Then sort through the rubble over the winter and return in spring with maybe a more prominent chip on the collective shoulder.

We can’t play in the big game? But, but… well, then, do it already. Nobody gives us respect? Oh, but they do; they give us exactly as much respect as we have earned. Want more? Okay, play better. Until then, suck it up like everyone else and get back to work.

The Padres have completed their fourth straight winning season. That’s the first time in franchise history if you’re scoring at home. They’ve made the transition from lousy/mediocre to good. How do they get from there to great? I don’t know, and I’m not prepared to think about it just yet.

I do know that this organization is in better shape than ever and that the better it gets, the more I want. This is a credit to the folks who run the club but also a burden for them. Not that the Padres have anywhere near the same track record, but I’m beginning to understand why the Braves couldn’t sell out home playoff games in the ’90s. At some point, as obnoxious as it sounds, reaching the playoffs isn’t enough.

To say nothing of not reaching the playoffs…

* * *

Man, this post sucks. I keep writing because… well, I don’t know what else to do. Is it spring yet?

1969: Padres Finish As They Started, with a Win

by Geoff Young on Oct 02, 2007 (3) Comments

October 2, 1969, San Francisco: Padres 3, Giants 2 (box score)

Prior to the Padres’ inaugural season, manager Preston Gomez and his coaching staff had hoped their club could win 60 games. Although they fell short of that mark, they fared much better than the last National League expansion team, the historically inept 1962 New York Mets. As for Gomez’ prediction that the Padres would outscore the Los Angeles Dodgers… well, let’s just say he was off a tad (where a tad equals 177 runs).

San Diego sent 20-game loser Clay Kirby to the mound in the season finale. The Giants countered with rookie right-hander Rich Robertson.

The Padres scored first. With one out in the second, Van Kelly singled to left. Cito Gaston drew a walk (!), and both runners advanced on a wild pitch. Jim Williams then flied to center, bringing home Kelly to give San Diego a 1-0 lead.

After the Giants tied the game an inning later, the Padres reasserted themselves in the fifth. Kirby reached second on a fly ball that Jim Ray Hart couldn’t handle to lead off the frame. A wild pitch moved Kirby to third. One out later, Ed Spiezio knocked a sac fly to left that plated Kirby and put the Padres back on top, 2-1.

In the seventh, the Padres padded their lead on — would you believe — yet another sacrifice fly. This time Kirby led off with a double to right center. Tommy Dean bunted him to third, and Ron Slocum followed with a fly ball to right that made the score 3-1.

San Francisco came back again in the bottom half of the frame. With Willie McCovey at first and two out, Bob Burda singled to right. Kirby then walked the light-hitting (.205/.278/.250 in over 750 career PA) Don Mason, bringing rookie catcher John Harrell to the plate. Harrell, whose big-league career consisted of two games against the Padres (with a hit, walk, and RBI in both of them) delivered a single that scored McCovey. Burda, representing the tying run, was thrown out at the plate by Williams to preserve the Padres’ 3-2 lead.

After seven strong innings, Kirby yielded to Frank Reberger, who retired the side in order in the eighth and allowed only a one-out bunt single by McCovey (!) in the ninth. The final batter Reberger faced was Burda, who popped to second baseman Slocum to end the game and the Padres’ inaugural season in the National League in front of their smallest crowd of the year — a mere 1,995 people came to Candlestick to watch their 90-win Giants close out the season.

* * *

This is our final installment of the 1969 Revisited series. I’ll be perfectly honest: there were days when I didn’t want to write these — all the losing got to me after a while. But I’m glad I did because this exercise has given me a greater appreciation of a) how dedicated the fans of this inaugural club must have been to continue their support despite the often miserable quality of play and b) how far the organization has come in a relatively short period of time. Yeah, 38 years seems like forever, but really, it isn’t. Heck, that’s how long it took the Cubs to get back to the playoffs after losing the ’45 World Series.

The point is, as a city, as a team, and as fans of that team, we’ve come a long way. It’s good to have a big-league club here in San Diego, but it’s even better to have a good big-league club here. We shouldn’t take that for granted. If we learn nothing else from history, we must at least understand that no-one is entitled to a winning baseball team. This doesn’t mean that we settle for anything less than a World Championship in any given year. At the same time, if it doesn’t happen (as it overwhelmingly doesn’t for most teams in most years), I hope we can find some enjoyment in following a club that has made tremendous progress in recent years and that appears to be well situated for the immediate future. If you ever forget that, just remember ’69 or, really, any pre-’80s version of the Padres.

IGD: Padres @ Rockies (1 Oct 07)

by Geoff Young on Oct 01, 2007 (1,031) Comments

Game #163
time: 4:37 p.m. PT
tv: TBS
sp: Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.36) vs Josh Fogg (10-9, 4.79)
pre: Padres.com, B-R.com

Analyze this one however you’d like; it’s one game, and anything can happen. That is my greatest fear and also my greatest hope. Go Padres!

Where There’s a Game, There’s Hope

by Geoff Young on Oct 01, 2007 (176) Comments

From October 1, 2004:

Well, it’s October and technically the Padres still aren’t out of the race. Or, if you’re reading this later in the day, maybe they are.

The Pads have already won 22 more games than they did all last year (and they still have three more to go against the worst team in baseball), and they’re the only NL team that had a losing record in 2003 that managed to push themselves above .500 in 2004. They’ve surpassed my preseason prediction of 84 wins (which I actually worried might be overly optimistic). The Padres will end up within shouting distance of the 800 runs forecast by GM Kevin Towers despite getting virtually no production from the key free agent acquisition (Jay Payton) and a whopping nine homers from Ryan Klesko.

The Padres scrapped and battled, and slowly began to believe they could win. Fan support was tremendous, eclipsing the 3 million mark for the first time in club history on the final day. But for all the positives, we are left frustrated and disappointed by a season that could have been so much more. In what looks to be their fifth best season in 35 years of existence, the Padres repeatedly failed to execute in key situations (how often can a team have two runners on base with nobody out and not score?). They made questionable roster decisions (Eddie Oropesa, Jason Szuminski, Kerry Robinson, the #5 starter revolving door, failure to acquire any names bigger than Rich Aurilia and Dave Hansen for the stretch run) and fielded a squad that collectively wasn’t well suited for their new ballpark and who individually seemed all too aware of and frustrated by that fact.

I should be happy, and for the most part I am. This truly has been a great season of Padres baseball, and Petco Park takes advantage of what San Diego has to offer in ways that the Q never could. Every time I step into the ballpark and look out onto the skyline, I am reminded of how blessed I am to call this city — for whatever faults it may have — my home. Corny as it sounds, I do take pride in Petco and the way it shows off our city. And this year, unlike in years past, I have been able to take pride in the Padres as well. Even when they’ve struggled to execute or blamed the new park for their problems, I’ve never doubted their desire to win. That’s not something I’ve always been able to say about some of the recent editions. Then again, it’s hard to get too worked up about these things when you’re routinely losing 90+ games a year.

On the one hand, I find it irritating beyond words that the Padres haven’t been able to wrap up a playoff spot and must visit Coors Field to play one game (or flip a coin, if you prefer) against the hottest team in baseball. On the other, I’m grateful that the Padres are committed to fielding a competitive ballclub, and that they at least have given themselves a chance to make a third straight postseason appearance.

Monday’s game starts at 4:37 p.m. PT, and will be broadcast on TBS and XM 183 [update: the Padres feed can be found on XM 184; hat tip to Phantom in the comments]. We’ll have the IGD up and running about an hour before first pitch. Luck permitting, it won’t be our last…

1969: Colbert, Slocum Lead Padres to Victory

by Geoff Young on Oct 01, 2007 (0) Comments

October 1, 1969, San Francisco: Padres 9, Giants 4 (box score)

The Padres provided a rare offensive display in the penultimate game of their inaugural season. For the first time since August 20 at Montreal, they scored more than eight runs.

San Francisco started the scoring. Bobby Bonds led off the fourth inning to give the Giants a 1-0 lead. Four singles later, they pushed it to 3-0 and knocked Joe Niekro out of the contest.

The visitors, however, had ideas of their own. In the fifth, with two on and one out, Tommy Dean flied to right, but Bill Burda dropped the ball, allowing Jim Williams to score from second. Ron Slocum singled to cut San Diego’s deficit to 3-2, and after Ollie Brown popped to short, Nate Colbert tripled home Dean and Slocum. Colbert was thrown out trying for an inside-the-park homer, but the Padres had taken a 4-3 lead.

San Diego added another run in the sixth. Van Kelly led off with a walk, and Cito Gaston doubled him home.

The Giants crept to within one run in the bottom half, but Colbert put the game out of reach in the seventh when he slammed a three-run home run to dead center, giving the Padres an 8-4 lead. San Diego scored again in the eighth en route to a 9-4 victory in front of fewer than 2,200 fans at Candlestick Park.

IGD: Padres @ Brewers (30 Sep 07)

by Geoff Young on Sep 30, 2007 (226) Comments

Game #162
time: 11:05 a.m. PT
tv: 4SD
sp: Brett Tomko (4-11, 5.39) vs Jeff Suppan (11-12, 4.57)
pre: Padres.com, B-R.com

Q: Brett Tomko or Jake Peavy in the finale?

A: As long as the Padres win, nobody will care.

1969: Perry Dominates Padres

by Geoff Young on Sep 30, 2007 (0) Comments

September 30, 1969, San Francisco: Giants 6, Padres 1 (box score)

The Giants scored three in the first off Al Santorini. With runners at second and third, and two out, Bobby Bonds singled to left, driving home Tito Fuentes and Ron Hunt. Left fielder Jim Williams and Santorini both made errors on the play, allowing Bonds to scamper home as well.

San Diego threatened to cut the lead the next inning. Van Kelly led off with a single and Ivan Murrell doubled him to third. Gaylord Perry came back to strike out the side, keeping the Padres off the board.

In the fifth, with the score now 4-0, San Diego again had a chance to do some damage. Kelly knocked a bases-loaded single to ruin Perry’s shutout, but Murrell struck out to end the frame with the Padres still down by three runs.

The Giants scored two more in the seventh off reliever Frank Reberger to make the final 6-1. Perry went the distance, striking out 14 Padres en route his 19th win of the season.