In Part 3 of our chat with singer/songwriter/Padre fan Steve Poltz (poltz.com), Steve discussed the connections between music and baseball, Jewel, and the Ramones.
In the latest installment, Steve talks about the Roseanne Barr incident, running up Bruce Bochy’s minibar tab at a hotel, and pelting his parents’ walls with marbles as part of a childhood baseball game he’d invented…
***
Ducksnorts: Getting back to baseball, what are some of your favorite memories from watching the Padres play — or really any baseball memories?
Steve Poltz: I’ll always remember being at the game watching Roseanne Barr sing the national anthem and laughing so hard, thinking it was awesome because she was so funny — not even thinking it was a big deal — and then hearing boos. I remember saying, “Well, what did you guys expect? You asked Roseanne Barr to sing the national anthem; she’s a comedian.” When she grabbed her crotch, she was imitating a baseball player — I knew it. [I was thinking] how punk rock she was. To this day I will defend her… What did you expect? You guys asked her to sing the f***in’ national anthem.
I remember the Crime Dog [Fred McGriff] getting in a fight. That was one of the best baseball brawls I’ve ever seen — his jersey got pulled off — that was a great brawl; I think it was versus Atlanta.
Another thing I remember is singing the national anthem when the Padres beat the Braves to go to the World Series [in 1998]. I sang the anthem at Qualcomm, and it felt like it took only 10 seconds. I remember shaking for the first three innings after I sang it. My hands would not quit shaking. I had to wear earplugs [while singing] and I did it live… all those people going nuts.
Another memory is singing the national anthem at the ballgame, and when they announced I was born in Canada, some Canadian haters booing me.
DS: C’mon, who hates Canada?
SP: It was at a time when some trade thing was going on or something like that. Another memory was being at games and Tim Flannery giving me the signs so I’d know when the hit-and-run was on. Then [I'd bet] friends, like, right away without them knowing: “Hit-and-run’s coming right now: Five bucks. Answer now; yes or no?”
Some season when the Padres were in last place — there were probably 7000 people at Qualcomm, and Flannery was coaching third — they were losing, like, 15-1 or something in the ninth inning. We started going, “Come on, we still have a chance!” and Flannery is looking at me from down there — he actually said [cups hands to mouth], “Go home!”
I remember going up to [Bruce] Bochy’s [hotel] room with my guitar on the road when I first started getting to know Flannery. I happened to be in Florida when they were playing the Marlins, so I called — somehow got his number from his wife — and I said, “Hey, my name is Steve Poltz,” and he goes, “I know who you are; I’ll leave you two tickets.” So he left me two tickets, and afterwards I remember drinking beers with him, smoking Cuban cigars — the Padres had won — and then, they were going to Milwaukee… me getting on a plane and just flying to Milwaukee because I had so much fun, and me [leaving him a message], saying, “Hey, I just happen to be in town.”
I remember a couple years later going up to Bochy’s room with my guitar and singing, and him going to do something and me breaking open his minibar. He had, like, a $582 minibar bill. The Padres traveling secretary would not allow me to stay in the same hotel as the Padres after that.
I have a memory in ‘84, standing at The Pennant [bar in Mission Beach] — everybody just throwing their glasses up in the air, like off the roof — I think it was when Steve Garvey hit that home run [against Cubs' closer Lee Smith]. I remember mass mayhem all down Mission Blvd.
What was the year when they came back to beat the Dodgers? ‘96? My dad wouldn’t even talk to me; it took him three days to calm down to where — I mean, that is just tantamount to being the biggest traitor in the world, what I did, rooting for the Padres.
The game when the Dodgers hit all the home runs against us last year… I was at Jose’s in La Jolla. I called a friend of mine in Pasadena and I said, when it was going to the ninth inning and we had the lead, “I don’t normally like to say things before a game ends, but I’ve just got to trash talk right now and say it feels so good to watch you people lose, and I have no qualms about saying it.” I hung up my phone and then proceeded to eat crow. I couldn’t believe it, and I really blamed myself for that, for upsetting the baseball gods — I’m very superstitious.
DS: You were not alone; it was a group effort.
SP: What I love about [baseball] is, it’s like this soap opera — every day you have these Shakespearean actors; we know who they are and [that] they’re going to be in the show, but we don’t know what’s going to happen. You follow the drama all year long — people who say the baseball season is too long can kiss my a**… so can the DH’ers. You know what? Pitchers are supposed to hit. That’s why I love Jake Peavy. He’s such a gamer. I think he and [Josh] Beckett should be teammates. They would be good together; they’re both cocky.
DS: I would not mind seeing Beckett play here.
SP: I love going on the road to see [the Padres]. I’m a really good fan when I’m on the road; I am not a jerk. I know how to act in someone else’s house. I might wear my hat and I might clap, but I do not get in anybody’s face.
DS: I hate it when people do that here. It’s lame.
SP: Me, too. I really believe in respecting the place you go to, and I believe in respecting the game. I love the game. It’s weird how it’s changed over the years, with specialists, which we didn’t have before, and pitch counts and everything.
I still love the game. I really believe, get rid of the DH. And I wish Montreal could have had fans come out to support their team.
I was a Dodger fan back when Kirk Gibson hit that home run [against the A's in the World Series]. What year was that?
DS: That was ‘88.
SP: My love affair with baseball began around the time I picked up the classical guitar, when I was six. We didn’t have video games back then — this was 1966; my earliest memory is of John Kennedy’s funeral on TV… Then the thing that really scared me was the Juan Marichal incident [with Dodgers catcher John Roseboro]. I remember literally grabbing my dad and crying.
[Co-owner Tim Mays stops by; Steve compliments Tim on the pork chop. We talk about mutual acquaintances, trying to figure out whatever happened to the guys from Inch.]
SP: I was so into baseball, and my dad would sit there and explain it to me. I love my dad, by the way; I talk to him every day. It gets me choked up to talk about what baseball has done for my relationship with my father. I’m so close to him, and we talk baseball — during the season I call my dad every day and we talk — he loves the Padres now; he’ll follow them because he knows what a fan I am. We talk about everything that went on.
When I was a kid, all I knew was Vin Scully. To this day, he’s my hero. I’d invented this game in my room. I would take a pencil and a marble — it was almost like I was playing over-the-line without knowing it. The game only had two bases. If I hit it on the wall at a certain height, it’d be a single, double, or home run. I’d throw the marble up and hit it with a pencil.
I was so obsessed with this game. I didn’t want to play with other kids. I would be in my room and I’d be the voice of Vin Scully. I knew all the Dodger players — Bill Russell, Ron Cey, Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes…
DS: Dusty Baker.
SP: Remember Willie Davis in center field before that? I’d sit there and I’d play this game, but I’d always make the Dodgers win, and it’d always come down to the Dodgers and the Reds. I’d always make the Dodgers beat the Reds, and then play the Yankees.
Unbeknownst to me, when I was playing the game, the marble hitting the wall made hundreds and hundreds of dents on the wall. My first memory of telling a lie was — one day I came home from school and my parents said, “Steven, we’d like to talk to you.” When they said “Steven,” I knew I was in trouble, and they were, like, “Why are there 2000 dents in the wall?” I remember looking them right in the eye and saying, “I have no idea,” and them going, “okay.”
One of my favorite days ever was [when] I went to see the Padres play in Milwaukee. They let me go on the field and shag fly balls while Tony Gwynn was taking BP. I suck at baseball — I think I caught one ball. Afterwards, they gave me a press pass and I got to sit by Bob Uecker.
So many times [Gwynn] came up to bat, and I’d think, how can he do this again, with his knee hurting? He’d slowly limp up, and he would do it again. I remember saying to people, “Enjoy this while you have it because this won’t always be here,” which is exactly what I say about Hoffy [Trevor Hoffman]. I get goose bumps when I think about what these people mean to the community; I’m forever indebted to them.
DS: They represent the ballclub and the city with class. When I saw Gwynn inducted into the Hall of Fame, it was really hot and humid, and just packed with people, but I wouldn’t trade it for anything.
SP: I’m jealous.
DS: Everyone was there to see Cal Ripken because it’s a five-hour drive from Baltimore to Cooperstown. There was orange-and-black everywhere, but people saw me wearing Padres stuff and they asked me about Tony Gwynn, so I told them. Then they saw him up there talking, and they said, “Wow, that guy’s really something,” and I’m, like, “Yeah, we know; we’ve been saying that for 25 years.”
[We get into a convoluted discussion of Tom Werner's Fire Sale, the '94 strike, and the Padres resurrection under John Moores.]
SP: The weird thing about baseball is that people become like family to you. When Trevor Hoffman blew a save in the All-Star game, and then what happened with the Rockies [in the 163rd game] — I wasn’t mad. I felt like I was watching someone in my family have something bad happen to them. After everything he’s done, I couldn’t be mad at the guy.
I know him; he is the nicest, most genuine guy. I remember asking [Flannery] about him because he’s good friends with Hoffy, and he said, “He made me feel better.”
DS: I don’t know Hoffman, but I’ve seen him speak in person a couple of times, and he’s impressive. He did his spiel, and then afterwards — this is a guy who could do anything with his time — he sat there and talked to all the kids who came up to him for an autograph or to ask him a question. He just stayed there for, like, an hour.
There’s one other guy that I’ve ever seen do that. In 1993, I went out to Arizona for spring training. It was Robin Yount’s last year. He played his four or five innings and then, after he ran his laps in the outfield, instead of coming back to the dugout, he stayed down in the left-field corner. It seemed like the whole stadium just gravitated toward him, and he sat there and signed every last autograph. I thought, now there’s a guy who is representing himself, his community, and the sport of baseball in the proper manner. I was blown away. This was a no-doubt Hall of Famer; he didn’t have to do that, but there he was.
SP: That’s what Willie Nelson does, too. After every concert, people line up by his tour bus, and he will sign everything. [It's the] same with B.B. King.
***
In the finale, Steve talks about the ‘98 Padres, what he would do if he were GM for a day, and his favorite baseball movies…
174 Comments
Maybe I’m misreading SP’s comments and misrembering my personal history, but he didn’t sing the National Anthem at the game where we beat the Braves to go to the WS. That game was played in Atlanta. I only saw one game against the Braves, the Game 5 heartbreaker, and I don’t recall him singing then.
I have a seriously strong memory of watching him sing the anthem before we beat the Astros to get to the NLCS that year. And from my seats next to the Jumbotron, you could tell he was giddy.
Card’s took Barton in the Rule V draft
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
I don’t remember where I saw it now, but I read that the Pad’s made an offer to Tadahito Iguchi
This should make some folks happy (not) The Pad’s never even put in a bid Jones
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/weblog/2007/12/padres_never_bid_on_jones.html
GY, why aren’t you pimpin’ your piece over at THT?
I would have been OK with the Jones deal. I’m hoping the Pads perhaps pay a little more than desired for Fukudome. I’d rather spend the $ then reluctantly trade Headley for someone perhaps less desirable than Fukudome. It’s not like the Royals, for instance, need another 3B.
BA’s top ten padres prospects is out (as TW pointed out in yesterdays threard):
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265307.html
In thier 2011 lineup they have cumberland in CF, I didn’t even know that pads had plans to move him there.
7: I don’t believe the Padres have any but the most contingent of plans to move Cumberland off short. Like if he fails to play a quality SS for 2+ full seasons.
I would guess he will be our starting SS in 2011 because I doubt they will lock up Greenie for 4 more years. Do you guys think cumberland start the year at ft wayne or LE?
#5: I didn’t want to take focus away from the interview. I’ll include it in tomorrow’s link roundup, but here’s the article for those interested:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-do-teams-keep-overpaying-generic-middle-relievers/
#7: Interesting list. I’m pretty sure that two, maybe three, of those guys won’t make my top 10, which will run next Tuesday or Wednesday.
7 … this tidbit at the end is news to me …
The Padres also were active in Latin America, handing out six-figure bonuses to a pair of Dominicans, shortstop Jonathan Spraut ($750,000) and outfielder Rymer Liriano ($300,000).
… names to watch? JC, you seen these guys yet?
9: Cumberland’s out of HS, I expect he’s at Ft. Wayne unless something happens to make the Padres keep him at extended spring training.
11: Does the MadFriar’s budget stretch for airfare to the DR? Or maybe those guys were sent to instructs, but I thought that was one of the purposes of the academy, to keep Latin signees in a comfortable environment?
We also gave cash to Florida for their Rule 5 pick Carlos Guevara, the screwballing RH relief pitcher originally drafted by Cincy. He’s a much more interesting player than Gardner. Lots of scouts have written him off as a trick-pitcher, but that’s a solid career line:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Carlos-Guevara.shtml
Just caught this blurb on the MLB.com winter meetings blog.
“The Padres and free agent Milton Bradley are close to finalizing a one-year deal to bring the outfielder back to San Diego for another season.”
11. Not yet to the Dominican – but with a few more subscribers we will work on it. Hell we have trouble enough visiting all the affiliates.
I agree on Cumberland, but there are some rumblings they may want to keep him in extended spring training and start him at Eugene. I would put him in FW if he can handle struggling the first few months. It could be a very young and exciting team in Fort Wayne with Latos, Carvajal and Cumberland this year.
BA’s Top 10 list for the Padres – (subscriber only) – sorry can’t reprint the list because of copyright violations
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/features/265309.html
Re: 15 its not subscriber only, I can access it without a problem.
Re: 13 the Pads are really loading up on relivers when they already have a great young bullpen, I smell a K-Cam/Hampson trade.
16. Good, I didn’t think you could read the descriptions of the top 10
15, 16: You can read the list without subscribing, but not the scouting reports.
Re: 18 yeah you cant read the scouting reports.
It’s bizarre to me how different I presume Steve Poltz and I are … but then he talks baseball and about his Dad and at the end mentions Willie Nelson and BB King and I feel like he’s my brother …
Real happy about Milton Bradley being back.. if he plays a full season I bet he puts up equivilant (or hopefully better) numbers than Andruw Jones for 1/5 of the price.
The deal was said to be one year 3.5- 4 million.
Isenberg — an interesting pick in the AAA phase I thought. On my blog, I called him a Heath Bell special in a 95% joking manner. Anyway, size and scouting reports aside, his BABiP’s have all been extremely high … in the .370 (ish) range of late. There’s debate that BABiP is a skill and in the minors kids who don’t have it are weeded out, but I think it’s an interesting pick, anyway. First inning: http://firstinning.com/players/Kurt-Isenberg-a/
Man… Why couldn’t I have been born Steve Poltz? Mr. Poltz you are my new idol. Growing up I was in a couple of crappy punk bands that never did anything and the only thing that I wanted to do more than become a touring musician was be a baseball player or be part of a baseball team. I love the fact that you have are not just some idiot with a Padres hat, you know the game and the history. You actually got to spend time with the team and know some of the guys.
Thanks for the interview GY. This was awesome!
RF: Giles
CF: Bradley
1B: Gonzalez
3B: Kouz
SS: Greene
C: Bard
LF: Headley/Hairston
2B: Robles/Stansberry/Gonzalez/Rodriguez/Crabbe/Antonelli
13:
I cannot recall his name, but the featured relief pitcher in Moneyball, was written off as “A trick pitcher”, by the scouts.
Bradley does make the lineup look better but is that lineup really going to get the job done?
The Padres, adding to their pool of second-base prospects, selected a speedy utility man from Milwaukee’s organization in the Rule V draft Thursday morning.
Callix Crabbe batted .287 with nine home home runs and 23 doubles for Milwaukee’s Triple-A club last year.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/weblog/2007/12/padres_draft_second_baseman.html
I understand that the Pads want to have a backup plan for Antonelli but really how many AAAA 2B’s do the pads need?
Here’s the Bradley link:
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071206&content_id=2319649&vkey=news_sd&fext=.jsp&c_id=sd
So far we’ve signed Maddux, Peavy, and Bradley to very reasonable deals. Me like.
#24: Glad you enjoyed it. As I’ve said before, this was the most fun I’ve ever had interviewing someone.
#25: Is anyone confident that Bradley can hold up in center? He’s got to be our left fielder, no?
#29: The more, the merrier. Nice to have choices.
26: Chad Bradford, who got one of those big middle-reliever contracts a year ago, I believe. Baltimore?
Re: 30 Its nice to have choices of MLB level players not a bunch of guys who we have no clue how they will do with 500+ AB’s.
Re: 32 that being said I do like the E-Gon signing.
Re: 30 barring a Mike Cameron signing I thinkn Bradley will be the 08 Center Fielder.
#32: Sure, but that’s much harder to do.
32: You don’t know what major leaguers are going to do either, really. Look at Marcus Giles … (certainly, in general, they are easier to project).
The Crabbe pick seems like a nice move to me. He can stick around as a utility guy if he doesn’t work out at 2b. Personally, I think Antonelli will start at 2b. I think Crabbe may be able to make some people forget Blum pretty quickly, although of course I’ve never seen him play.
Low risk/medium reward type move. I can’t complain about it.
A trick pitcher can do just fine in relief. Ask Mariano Rivera, Dan Quisenberry, Bruce Sutter, Chad Bradford, etc. You can get by for an inning with just one pitch, if it’s good enough.
The Bradley deal is good news. I still like the guy even after that horrible incident and if he really lost weight I think that shows he’s committed to improving. We still need a Fukudome, something to put us over the top, but as of right now I think we’re competitive in the division.
Re: 35 Loretta was willing to sign a 1 year deal here.
Isn’t Crabbe like 5′6″ or so? He may not be physically capable of SS or 3B so he won’t be useful in a utility role. I think he’s just here in case Antonelli goes into a Kouzmanoff-esque funk to start the year.
With Barton going to the Cards does that signal a trade for Jim Edmonds?
Re: 36 true but atleast you know that they have been able to hit major leauge pitching in the past.
#38: Not exciting…
M Giles ‘06: 28 yo, 87 OPS+
Loretta ‘07: 35 yo, 89 OPS+
Im not sure what Padre players the Cards have intrest in but what about a Barnton Reyes trade?
Re: 41 might not be exciting but better than Robles, Stansberry and Rodriguez.
The Bradley signing scares me more than a little. I like the idea as long as he is not our only aquisition or we put ourself in a position to count on him. If he is the plan for Center then that leaves our 2 most important outfielders coming back off of pretty major knee surgery. I also wonder how Bradley will do without a guy like Mike Cameron back in the lineup (Veteran Leadership type). This will be a great compliment type of signing with a low risk high reward type of contract but if we are counting on him to be “The Guy” in 2008 I think it’s a huge risk.
Re: 44 I think Kouz will be a larger force in the lineup in 08 than they were 07. Also you get vetrain leadership from Giles, I’ve never heard of Cameron being a clubhouse leader.
I’m very disappointed that the Padres didn’t offer Andruw Jones the same contract that he got from the Dodgers. You can rarely go wrong with a two year deal and I think it’s likely that Jones bouncing back from his terrible year last season. He would be a valuable player even if he doesn’t because of his defense.
I don’t want to say the Padres are cheap (they just gave out a contract where they are going to pay Peavy $22m his last season) but I hate the way they seem to put down a budget figure and not deviate from it. A $75m budget (or whatever it is) would be fine if the Dodgers didn’t sign Jones. Since they got better you have to up your budget if you want to make the playoffs (which I assume is the goal, not to maximize the team’s profit).
I really hope they give Scott Hairston a shot at 2B, because if he can do the job, that would really put the Padres in the best position to score runs, I think.
37: With the signing of Bradley, our corners are filled… Where does Fukudome play? (Unless Giles is finally replaced and rides the pine)
If they sign Fukudome I would imagine he would play RF, Giles would be in LF and Bradley will be in CF. The Bradley signing makes me feel like they are not getting Fukudome though.
I would think it would be Bradley/Hairston LF, Fukodome or Cameron CF, Giles/Headley RF, with Headley spotting Kouz at 3B from time to time.
45.
I never heard of Cammy as a clubhouse leader either that was just an assumption on my part. Giles seems like the joking type not the leader type to me. It would be hard for me to take a guy seriously when he is taking batting practice in his birthday suit. Then again there really isn’t anyone more professional on the field once the game starts then OG. Every time I ever heard Cammy speak he just sounded like a guy who fit the clubhouse leader mold. I could be way off but that’s always the way I viewed him. It’s not a really major concern for me just something to think about.
Re: 50 Headley is not a starter he will be in AAA, the Pads wont let him get only 1 AB a night for any extended period of time.
50: I dont think anyone still sees Fukudome as a CF. At this point I hope Cameron comes back, I dont see the Padres winning Fukudome if the Cubs are still serious.
Well if the plan is to resign Cameron and then bring in someone like Josh Towers for the #5 spot…..hello 3rd place!
KT/Alderson do realize that they actually need to improve somewhere right?
I like Randy Wolf, he’s probably going to end up league average, but if the Dodgers are really able to move Kemp for Bedard the division is pretty much done.
51: I gotta agree with you. i think having Cam around was good for Bradley. Cam being black has something to do with it as well. We cant ignore race and its hard to believe Bradley and Cam didnt have a bond because of it.
Re: 54 who’s in 4th then?
54: I agree, but is our rotation really that bad to where Josh Towers in the #5 would be bad? No. I really hope they pick up Prior, but Towers would be fine.
From Peter Gammons(who usually is 100% wrong with Padres news, but I’ll post it anyway)
The Padres believe they can re-sign Milton Bradley, and they also are pursuing Kosuke Fukudome for an outfield spot. Bradley, who suffered a knee injury at the end of last season after tangling with manager Bud Black, is making progress in his rehabiliation.
Also(from Gammons) TB wants Barrett to play C for them….working out a trade with SD.
Not sure what type of guy they could extract from TB
re 46: The problem is that there is no evidence that they are trying to maximize profit. The available evidence is that they are spending as much if not more money than they are taking in. You can argue with where they choose to allocate that money, but if you follow the argument of “the team has to raise its payroll budget to compete with other teams” to its logical extension, the Padres would have gone bankrupt a long time ago.
Under the current system, they simply cannot compete payroll wise with the Dodgers and Giants, unless you unreasonably expect the ownership to go into separate private funds to make up the different. This is unreasonable because NO ownership behaves that way, nor is it rational to expect them to do so.
They have been finding different ways to compete, pretty successfully in recent vintage; they will continue to have to be creative, smart and efficient to the extent possible.
I have heard Nick Swisher may be out there. What do you think it would take to get him? Headley/Kouz and an arm? Being that my wife is from the East Bay I have become a silent A’s fan and have grown to really love Swisher (It helps that we ran into him at a bar up there like 2 years ago and he couldn’t have been cooler). Would anyone without a biased view like mine be interested in him here?
Swisher is kind of redundant on this team. He can’t play CF in Petco and the price to get him(basically the guy’s BB’s son) is going to be prohibitive.
Very nice player to have, but I don’t see it as a fit.
Re Cammy being a clubhouse leader, I do remember talk about how much leadership he provided in the clubhouse. One comment I remember in particular is where he went up to Bradley after Bradley had really gotten the opposing fans worked up on a road trip and Cammy telling him he had to calm down. Cammy may need to be there to temper Bradley.
Looks like the Giants may get Matsui from the Yankees
Re: 59 If the Pads throw in Hampson with Barrett do you think they could get Baldelli?
Thanks for the interview, Geoff. Good stuff.
I sense a bit of panic around here. Relax, people. It’s only the rule V draft.
How many of those turn into Johan Santana? Very rare.
I’m okay with losing Barton. I’d hate to count on a Rule V draftee to be the starting CF.
65.
We would probably have to go with something more like Barrett an Meredith or Cameron but Hampson might get that done too. I wonder if Baldelli is still out there after moving Young and Dukes.
Not sure they would want Baldelli because of his contract situation, but I’m also not sure TB would be interested in dealing another OF after sending D Young away.
Baldelli makes:
2.25 in 2008(very good)
6M Option for 2009 (4M buyout) You’re stuck paying that, but looks good. The problem then becomes:
2 years as 1 option:
2010-8M
2011-9M
Pretty much after this 2008 he’s getting paid like a guy you build around. If he’s healthy then he’s easily worth that contract, but he hasn’t had 2 healthy seasons in a row….let alone 4.
64: what’s the cost? I was hoping the rumored Lincecum/Cain for Alex Rios was true.
65: No. Has Baldelli’s stock dropped that much? I know he has that long-term contract, which would’ve been club-friendly had he been on the field and producing.
I think the Giants want both, but those Lincecum for Rios rumors are true…at least according to both local papers.
#65: First off, that’s not near enough for Baldelli. Second, I’ve talked to someone who is close to the Rays situation (not “insider” close but he follows them seriously) and he seems to think that with Young and Dukes out of the picture, Baldelli and Crawford are off the table.
#66: Thanks for the sanity. I hate to see folks give up on the season in December. The Padres have made some nice little moves so far, and I doubt they’re done.
re 72: Geoff I think some of the frustration comes from the fact that the organization seems to eliminate some possibilities before even looking at them.
Wouldn’t signing Jones have made sense since they could have used Headley/Hairston in LF, or even signed Jenkins. As it stands now they are going to be stuck resigning Cameron(and going without for 25 games) or losing some significant D with Fukudome in CF, which incidentally makes all 3 outfielders coming off significant surgery.
Re 60: I think you misssed my point. I’m not saying that the Padres have to compete in payroll with the Giants or the Dodgers. I’m saying that they shouldn’t set a budget number and stick to it no matter what. If the Dodgers didn’t make any changes, I could see the Padres keeping their payroll the same or even lowering it. But since the Dodgers got better, the Padres need to increase their payroll if they want to stay ahead of them for next season. The main problem is that Padres need to win now — their farm system is terrible compared to their main competition so they can’t really rely on being good in the future. Therefore, passing on someone like Andruw Jones who signed a short contract (which is really the Padres current window of opportunity) and settling for a cheaper option doesn’t make much sense to me. The revenues that you add by making the playoffs seem to be much higher then the difference between Cameron (or whoever they sign to play CF) and Andruw Jones.
In the spirit of the BA Top 10 I thought I’d post mine as well.
1. Chase Headley – Major league bat that is ready to produce, solid defder at 3B
2. Matt Antonelli – Good on base skills, speed and power for a 2B but raw defensively
3. Kyle Blanks – Freak of nature with developing power and deceptive speed
4. Cesar Carrillo – Should contribute at some point in ‘08
5. Mat Latos – Biggest power arm in the system
6. Will Inman – Advanced for his age – 20 yr old in AA
7. Cedric Hunter – 19 yr old CF with good on base skills
8. Drew Cumberland – Solid defender at SS with plus speed
9. Kellen Kulbacki – Great on base skills with some pop
10. Wade LeBlanc – Strike thrower who should contribute in ‘08
Honorable Mention (#11-15) – Yefri Carvajal, Chad Huffman, Nick Hundley, Drew Miller, Danny Payne
Where do you guys see Eric Sogard ranked in our system? For some reason he really intriges me. His college numbers make me think of Brian Roberts. Obviously it’s college but does he have a legitamate shot at being a decent option in a couple of years?
#75: Nice. Now that I’ve seen several lists, I can safely say that I’m going way out on a limb with my #10 guy.
On another note, it looks like I’m going to cover about 60-65 minor leaguers in the book. (I’m at 59 right now and I haven’t looked at relievers yet.)
Re: 76 I would say mid to late 20’s
Pretty amazing how far the system has really come since Fuson was hired. A couple of years ago Freddy Guzman would have been on our top 10 prospects and now guys like Carillo, Cumberland and Kulbacki aren’t even in the top 10 from BA.
from MLBTR
Pads will Prob non-tender Ensberg.
Brewers will prob non-tender Mench (Why do I see KT making a move).
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/espns-latest-ba.html
66: I’m not panicking because of the Rule 5. We didn’t lose anybody worth thinking about. I’m more questioning their allocation of resources. They just spent 150,000 (maybe more than that, if they had to pay Florida a little premium to get to get Guevara). They missed out on a couple of draft picks this year for less than that. If we decide not to keep them and their old teams want them back, we’re out 75K. Again, money that could have signed Toledo.
Guevara, okay. His stats are off the charts good in a relief role. That 50K is totally understandable. It’s still a risk in that Black all but buried Cameron last year, and if he’s still not sold on him and treats Guevara the same way we’ll have 2 relief pitchers doing next to nothing except consuming roster spots.
Gardner, no. Why not one of our own AAA arms with similar stats and less injury history, who could be sent back to Portland without repercussion?
Crabbe, why? Just how many guys like that do we need? He’s played 8 whole games at shortstop in his minor league career. Not exactly a utility guy.
2:15 p.m., from Enrique Rojas
• Jaime Torres, the agent for Cuban slugger Alexei Ramirez, left Nashville after meeting with five teams interested in the player. Torres said that he expects to meet with two other clubs in the next couple of days. Ramirez, the home run leader in the Cuban national tournament in 2006, can play second base or the outfield. He left Cuba and settled in Dominican Republic two months ago.
What about this guy? A slugger who can play outfield and 2B? Isn’t this exactly what the Padres need? It would be nice to see some Latin-American players on the team.
Re: 82 depends on the other teams that they have to bid against.
82: I like his profile, I though there was some question whether his residency will be settled in time for the season.
81: I understand your point about fund allocation in this case.
I’m okay with Guevara in that Kevin Cameron is not assured a roster spot unless he’s improved a lot from late last season. Crabbe, from i’ve read, is never going to start but might be a useful utility guy like Blum and also not assured a roster spot yet. I don’t understand Gardner’s pick.
I don’t know if Toledo could have been signed with the $75 k additional fund, so I don’t worry about it. The cost of developing Toledo probably would exceed that and he won’t be able to contribute to next season right away.
I see Rule V as a short term gamble like the lottery that cost at least $25k. Yes, the roster spot is worth more than that but I don’t see the Padres to keep any of these guys if they aren’t good. The days of keeping Cory DeHaan for the season (shudder) are, hopefully, over.
Makes you wish El Salvador had the same citizenship requirements that it had 10+ years ago…..pay the “application” fee and you’re in within 24 hours.
85: I think that if they were not too impressed with Cameron they’d have cut him last year. Maybe a trade, but he’s not going to be very valuable.
If they’re going to keep Crabbe and somebody who really can play shortstop, then it’s another misuse of resources. We seem enamored of using 40 man roster spots on utility players and we at times had 13 relievers last year. Crabbe as a utility player with the true backup SS at Portland would be different.
Toledo wouldn’t help before 3 years, if ever. But they’d have had him for 10 years, probably. 4 in the minors, promote, 6 before he’s a free agent. The stories from people at BA were that he wasn’t asking for that much over slot.
I don’t understand the point of “The cost of developing Toledo probably would exceed that.” Once he’s in the system, he costs about the same as anybody other warm body. They’re going to spend that development money on somebody.
88: Way to go, Padres flagship station, for not reading the Milton Bradley story on the team Web page.
Great, another self-referential post.
82: Since he’s from Cuba and lives in the DR, he’s just Latin and probably quite proud of that. I personally couldn’t care less about the nationality of the players on the team, unless we had enough Pacific-Islanders that they did the Haka before games
87: You got my point. If Toledo is in the system, the cost is going to exceed the money spent gambling on the rule V draftee who must be with the ML team. The draftees are not costing development money.
That’s why I don’t get worked up over rule V draftees. The teams are all hoping to hit the jackpot while leaving the development cost to other organizations. Most don’t work out but it cost little.
And because we all need to laugh, click here:
http://catfishstew.baseballtoaster.com/archives/878005.html
and here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1j_fxs8mUcQ&feature=related
re 74: The Padres bring in only so much revenue; they have only so much money to allocate to payroll. We don’t know what their payroll budget is, but it is foolish under the circumstances for them NOT to stick to it, unless you think it is wise to take money from other operations to boost the payroll budget. If so, what areas would you cut?
Want Moores to float the difference? Not gonna happen on a regular basis any more. He got tired of doing that pre-Petco, just like Arte is getting tired of it now. It is a terrible way of doing business, and like it or not, the Padres are a business.
The Padres would be foolish to adjust their payroll budget based on what other teams do or do not do; they should not be reactive. There was evidence the Padres were interested in Jones on a 1 year deal. If they didn’t want to do a two year deal, there are plenty of baseball and fiscal reasons for them not to want to do so. Even if they did, the logically probable result is that the Dodgers still would have outbid them for Jones’ services – they have the $$$ to do so.
need to get back to reading the rule V stuff, much more interesting
90: I don’t think you understood the question. When somebody defects from Cuba, they have to establish residency someplace other than the US in order to be a free agent. If he tried to become a US resident, he’s subject to the baseball draft rather than being able to sign with anybody. There are rules governing how long you have to live somewhere to do that.
Also, I very much doubt that Andruw Jones is worth 7.5 extra wins in the standings by himself. When the Dodgers do something else like bolster their starting pitching, assuming they don’t trade a lot of major league offensive value to get there, then I might be concerned.
91: The major league salary for one of those Rule 5 picks is going to be a lot more than Toledo would make in a year, maybe two, in the minors. The salary they would have spent on Toledo is going to be spent on somebody not named Toledo. The coaches who would have coached Toledo are still drawing their pay. All he would have done is bump another pitcher off a roster in Ft. Wayne or short-season ball.
90: I don’t want latino players just to have latino players. However, take a look at the list of the best players in baseball. A lot of them are latino, and yet the Padres have a terrible track record in scouting and developing ANY latino players. I guess that’s mainly because it takes a lot of work and grass-roots effort to establish facilities and choose the right scouts. It probably also is because S&D was such a disaster prior to Fuson. It seems like Fuson et al. are doing a good job of moving the team more in that direction, so we can compete for good young latino players with teams like the Mets and Dodgers who’ve had so much success in those areas.
I think the main reason the Padres didn’t give money to Toledo but will spend money on Rule 5 is that Selig asked the teams to not go outside of the pricing parameters for draft picks, but never said anything like that about Rule 5. It’s a big-picture business decision to keep draft costs down, and there’s no similar measure about Rule 5. If that ever happened, I’m sure Moores would be first in line to do whatever Selig wants him to do.
SOOO amped!!!
Bradley was one of two FA’s who got on-base more than 40% and slugged over .500 (the other is Barry Bonds) and we get him for $3.5-to-4mm… The Dodgers paid $18mm for Andruw (who is better defensively, but not as good offensively). We also are still in on Cammy & Fukudome (and won’t lose a draft pick for either) plus we picked up one extra pick for Brochail (sp?). We still have an uber-trading chip in Headley who will either be traded or will be a major force on this team by ‘09.
For all the guys saying we didn’t improve this team, I don’t see it. I love where we’re headed (for ‘08 and beyond).
We still need to resolve the OF situation, I’d like some clarity on what’s happening w/ Headley (though I-we are not entitled to it), and similarly, I’d like to know if the Padres plan on throwing the 5 second basemen to the wolves and see who wins the job, or will continue to explore the market for a keystone corner-man?
We should again be among the faves for Div. Champs and we haven’t mortgaged the future to do so.
98: I couldn’t agree more.
I would rather have Bradley than Jones. This is what I was talking about yesterday. Towers did make the headline-grabbing move. He made the smart one.
42 … hey, SteveC, what’s “a Barnton Reyes trade”???
75 … thanks for the list, Derek! Good job! I think you’re too optimistic … I’m not counting on either Headley nor Antonelli being on the Opening Day roster (I’m a believer in the value of AAA, and in delaying the “start of the service time clock”) … and I’ll be stunned if Carillo pitches for the Padres before September … and same for LeBlanc (again, AAA-experience and service time issues apply) …
Crap. He DIDN’T make the headline-grabbing move. I hate when that happens.
93: I don’t know if you were actually referring to 90 or that was an accident. I was just noting, likely unnecessarily, the knee-jerk reaction to add a “-American” even though Torres is a Cuban now residing in the DR.
96: You’re absolutely right, I was just absolutely bored, and I absolutely love the haka
Re 92 & 94: Let’s say that the Padres want to spend $75m on their payroll and that team figures to win around 90 games or so — usually good enough to win the division. But if the Dodgers or another team looks like a 95 win team, shouldn’t you gamble short-term on improving your team enough that you could win the division and make the playoffs (which according to most is going to add a lot of money to the bottom line not only that season but in carry-over effect for the next season). Wouldn’t it be reasonable to spend more money to ensure a greater chance of making the playoffs and generating more revenue? I’m not saying that the Padres should sign A-Rod or Torii Hunter, but signing Andruw Jones seems like a good deal especially considering it’s only for two years. Now not only do the Dodgers have Jones but they have a surplus of outfielders that they can trade off for things they have a greater need for like starting pitching. Let’s say they trade Kemp, Kershaw, LaRoche and someone else for Johan Santana or Erik Bedard. That would make the Dodgers the overwhelming favorite for the next few years (which is exactly the Padres window of opportunity due to their crappy drafting). Again, the Padres are in a “win now” mode because they went cheap in the draft. So shouldn’t you be out to maximize your chances of winning now?
RE: 100 I was just saying that, that could be a possibility, I know KT is interested in both players and im wondering if the Cards drafted Branton to combined him with Anthony Reyes to get a player that they covet from the Pads. There was no rumor just my own speculation.
RE: 104 Barton sorry
Andruw Jones has been a better hitter than Bradley every year. 113 OPS+ to 110. More importantly, he’s achieving that rate for 150+ games a year. Bradley averages half a season. Jones may have slipped in CF – not according to all measurements, but some – but he can play there without worrying about his hamstrings. Or his obliques. Or his quads. Or his ACL.
The Dodgers paid a lot, but they got the better player, hands down.
How are better….yet? The same top 3 pitchers, and it’s almost impossible for Jake to be as good as he was. Wolf was a good risk to take, but he may not be as valuable as the Germano/Cassell/Tomko trio. Largely the same pen. Our weakest position last year, 2b, is currently being filled by assorted rookies and journeyman who may actually be worse than what we got last season. We don’t currently have a starting CF unless we want to risk Bradley’s knees there. OG coming off knee surgery. So far our hopes of improving hinge on players we already had performing better.
102: It wasn’t an accident, just me totally misreading your point.
103: Yes, the Dodgers have Jones, and the Padres have Bradley. The Padres have the slightly better player. The Padres could have spent $18.1 mil a year on Jones, but they got the cheaper AND better player.
Andruw Jones is a good player. Not a great one. I don’t think the Padres are in should be in the business of signing good players to $18.1 a year deals.
From Rob Neyer:
Jones was a great player for a few years, mostly because of his stellar defense. But while he’s still a Gold Glove-quality center fielder, his defense has slipped and will only slip further. Meanwhile, fundamentally he’s never been a truly great hitter. Now past his prime, Jones’ career hitting stats — .342 on-base percentage, .497 slugging — are merely good, and he’s finished higher than eighth in MVP balloting just once in his career. And again, at 30 years old, he’s past the age at which we would expect him to get better. So that’s where the market’s at: $18 million per season for good players.
1088: Seriously, by what possible measure is Bradley better than Jones? In Andruw’s worst year, when NOTHING fell for base hits, he was still a good defensive CF with an 88 OPS+. He’d put up seasons of 126 and 126 before that. And he plays darn near every day.
Bradley’s performance with us was by far the best he’d done since 2003. I love me some Jenga, but he’s a risk in CF, both his skills and his durability, and he breaks no matter where you play him.
109: Since when is a 126 OPS+ with very good defense in CF just “good?” He hit 92 HR in 05 and 06, 26 last year, and Atlanta is no hitter’s park.
I’m not saying he’s worth 18 million, necessarily. But he’s a better player than Bradley. Let’s not let Jenga’s rate stats in 42 games with us blind us to his flaws.
100 – Thanks! I could see Leblanc up by the all-star break if there are injuries. Carrillo, as you said, probably isn’t up until September, August at best.
I may have overstated the comparison, I give you that. But I don’t think the Padres should have signed Jones. Even if it was for one year ($18.1 mil), I still wouldn’t have liked it. I think he’s flaky, and he might be done, and he might be 33 years old, and he might be off the juice now.
Bradley did have better percentages last season, and he didn’t get hurt until the last week in a very freak accident. I still blame the umpire and think Bradley was at least a little justified in losing it. The A’s had him sitting last season, so that’s why he didn’t play a full season.
#112 Josh Geer has to be on the org top 20 list for prospects. I saw Geer throw twice this year and he really knows how to pitch. He is a soft tosser so he flys under the radar but I have a gut feeling that this guy could get a chance at the majors.
Yes, Jones has slugged .500 six times. That’s great for his resume, but I don’t think the Padres should pay him for what he has already done. The most important comparison between the two players is last season and age. If you still favor Jones, I can certainly see that, but I’m not saying Bradley will be our center fielder. It’s just interesting because the deals were agreed to within 12 hours of each other.
113: Bradley didn’t miss 70 games in the last week of the season. He was hurt with the A’s and with us before the wrasslin’. He got hurt with Oakland, they acquired more OF, and they knew he wouldn’t be happy in a part-time role once he was healthy.
Also, their career OPS+ is only significant if you want to evaluate their careers. We need to know who is better know. Jones has certainly had the better career.
116: OK, I sit corrected on that one.
114: Matt Eddy of BA says that Geer’s on the Top 30 list. He’s not that under the radar as the Texas League Pitcher of the Year, but those K numbers are blah. On the plus side, Eddy says he threw harder this year than he ever has, so maybe he’s got more strikeouts in him.
117: Their career OPS is extremely important. If there’s reason to believe Jones suddenly lost the ability to hit, it’s one thing, but even great players have down seasons. That’s the only reason he settled for a 2 year deal.
Both players had very flukey 2007s. Jones on the bad side, Jenga significantly better than he’d ever been. Regressing to the mean puts Jones back on top next year. He could certainly be in an early twilight, I don’t disagree, but Bradley’s only been a better player than Jones for 61 games.
#119 Texas League pitcher of the Year and (Geer) still rarely mentioned –seems pretty under the radar to me — Is SA Missions lefthander Cesar Ramos considered by anyone’s standards a “prospect” ? He too has incredibly low strikeout numbers but the guy, like Geer, also has great control.
114 – I agree on Geer. I had him at 17. He doesn’t have a ton of upside but I think he could help as a #5.
With all the players now fighting for the second base job does that mean Antonelli goes back to High A if he doesnt make the team.
121: I mention him plenty, as somebody to trade before his value erodes. A statistically oriented organization like the Padres is going to be leery of his peripherals, no matter how good his face is.
I expect Ramos is on the Top 30 too. LHP can get away with lower strikeouts, but his are really low. Another guy who could be traded and not worry me in the least. Get something out of the 900K signing bonus.
123: There’s going to be a bloody massacre of second basemen around the middle of spring training. Probably before that, they don’t have enough games to give that many guys enough time to learn anything.
I’ll try to assemble some final thoughts on this, not that anyone wants me to:
I would not have done the Jones’ deal — half because of the money and half because of Jones’ season last year. I would not have done it for one year.
If that money would have kept the team from signing a couple guys for the No. 5 starter spot or a stop-gap at second or other players to fill out the roster, then I think it’s a bad deal. They signed Bradley for what some utility infielders are getting. That’s a safe deal, even if Bradley never plays again.
If the Padres can be league average at the No. 4 and 5 starter spots, then they are improved. Maybe much improved. Those spots were often black holes last year, especially No. 5.
We still don’t know if the Padres will sign Fukudome or Cameron or both. So much of this evaluation is like lamenting a Padres loss in the fifth inning.
Again, the Peavy signing is the most important with any team this offseason because of how good he is, his age and the price at which the Padres extended him at. But it won’t get same headlines as other deals because it was an extenstion, not a free agent signing, and because it wasn’t the Yankees or Red Sox making the deal.
Bradley did have a 153 OPS+ last season. Jones had 88+.
In the Bill James book, Jones is projected to have a 834 OPS in 158 games. That’s good. Cameron is projected at 831 in 71 games. Hairston is projected at 839 in 119 games. Now none of that may happen, and I know a lot of people here don’t like Hairston, but it’s at least interesting.
Does that mean Antonelli has to hit 800 with no errors to make the team
126: I wanted your final thoughts. My responses:
1. The Bradley deal’s not bad, but Jones is the better player. Durability alone gives him a pretty big edge, Bradley missed 100 games last year.
2. The Padres were league-average at one the final two pitching spots, however we want to define it. Germano, Tomko, and Cassell had a 21 VORP between them. Wells and Hensley killed us. Among starters, that’s Tim Wakefield – Jeff Suppan – Jake Westbrook territory. Not far from Ollie Perez Land.
3. I’m not lamenting things now. I’m simply saying they’re not better yet.
4. Bradley was at 2.9 WARP for us, which is great considering he played only 1/4 of the year. But those aren’t fluke injuries. He gets hurt every season aside from 2004. Jones, in his worst year ever, was 4.6. Durability matters.
126 Again: I like Hairston. Not sure if I like him at all in CF, and he should be nowhere near 2b, but he can be a heckuva hitter.
What about a Cameron/Hairston situation in left?
Why not 2B? He had a bunch of errors as a rookie for Arizona in 2004, but his Zone Rating (.839) and Range Factor (4.87) were both pretty respectable. I don’t know how he fared in more sophisticated measures, but I’m sure it was not much worse than a bit below average.
I mean, Eric Chavez was a total butcher when he first came up but Ron Washington turned him into a good fielder. Isn’t the same thing possible for Hairston? If the guy spent the winter running drills, he couldn’t be good enough to play between Khalil Greene and Adrian Gonzalez?
Re: 123 If Antonelli does not make the Team out of ST I would imagine he would goto AAA, he spend the last half of last season in AA.
Re: 130 If Cameron is on the team he will be in CF
Shoot, I meant Bradley, Hairston.
Chavez was never a butcher…..Ron Washington may take credit for that, but Chavez was regarded as a good glove way back to his days at Mt. Carmel
131: When Hairston was bad at 2b a few years ago, he was about 30 pounds lighter. He didn’t get any more agile. He was near the bottom in RZR in 2004 as a thinner man.
134: Agree. Chavez had some problems making plays as a rookie, but he had the athleticism. Hairston’s defense and athleticism have been questioned since he was drafted.
Anybody else remember the proposed Chavez for Peavy and Burroughs deal? Glad KT didn’t make that trade
Forgive me if I missed something, but I read this morning that Fukudome will sign with either the Cubs or Royals. I have been out of the loop for part of the day, did something change?
re 137: The guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about. The Royals had just signed Jose Guillen and KT has been very clear publicly that the Padres have an offer out to Fukudome.
I guess sometimes writers in the midwest are as bad as local Yankee/Sox writers.
Re: 137 The Pads have Multi-year offers out to Fukudome and Cameron and are waiting to hear back from both. I would assume that nothing will happen with the club until then.
I’m assuming with Bradley coming back that the first one to take the Padres offer gets it….if Cameron accepts arbitration though it seems like the offer to Fukudome may get pulled back.
I doubt Cameron will accept arb im sure he can ge a multi-year deal somewhere else and since he is only a type B FA then a team will not have to give up their first round pick to get him.
Did anyone hear the SA report on XX?
Man Billy and Darren kept asking the same question over and over again about bradley having issues.
142: Yeah they are clearly anti-Milton but I can’t blame anyone for feeling that way. But they keep losing sight of the fact that we’re only on the hook for $4 million. I just read that Mark Loretta is going to accept arbitration so Houston is paying him $4 million. Who’s the better deal? Even if Bradley misses 90 games he’ll be a better value.
SA said they hope to know tonight or tomorrow on Fukudome. Sounds like it’s us or Chicago. Personally I don’t know why anyone would choose Chicago if the SD offer was anywhere close. Would you rather make $10 million a year here or $12 million in Chicago? Especially for a Japanese player. Do they even have Japanese food in Chi town?
Fukudome will decide between the Cubs & Padres either tonight or tomorrow…
Doesn’t OPS+ take games played into account (an accumulative stat) thus isn’t Bradley’s part-time 110 darn near Andruw’s full-time 113?
Is Andruw among the top 5 position players in all of baseball? Because that’s how the Dodgers are paying him. Think about this, the Padres will get Fukudome/Cameron + Bradley + Headley for less than Dodgers are paying Andruw. Headley could very well be a super-sub at 3B, LF, & RF (remember B.Giles missed time this year as well).
Re 103:
A: Matt Eddy: Just last year, we ranked the Padres No. 29 in baseball. A lot has changed in a year. We haven’t begun stacking the teams up this year, but the Padres will definitely move up from last year’s showing.
Matt Eddy: In addition to adding talent like Nick Schmdit, Cory Luebke, Mitch Canham, Kellen Kulbacki and Drew Cumberland in the draft, the Padres also nabbed the best of the last of the draft-and-follows in Matt Latos. And, of course, the Scott Linebrink trade worked out well for them, adding Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher to the mix.
***
The Padres do NOT draft crappy… Just keep thinking that o.k. In fact, make sure to tell all our rivals…
144: OPS+ doesn’t take games into account … pure rate stat. Well, I don’t know how “pure” it is, but it’s a rate stat nonetheless.
143: As a temporary Chicago resident, I can assure you that there is Japanese food here, albeit not as good as that on the left coast. While I agree with you wholeheartedly on San Diego, Chicago is a great town during the summer, and it doesn’t get much better than a day game at Wrigley
146: I think it’s 80 proof
Peter, I think I’m like a lot of people who follow the Padres pretty seriously, it isn’t the picks that bother me, it is the budget that leads to those picks.
If ever there is a time to spend money like a drunk sailor on shore leave for the first time in 6 months-its the draft.
Think about what they could have had if Moores understood how valuable that drafted talent really can be in trades:
Think about what Porcello could net you next off season.
#147: I have to agree with you that Chicago is a great city. I’ve spent a little time there on business and the restaurants, eateries and the general atmosphere were terrific. I also got to catch a game at Wrigley. Great stadium, great atmosphere, fun crowd.
Great string today guys! It’s been a “hot stove” on a cold & rainy day for me up here in Oregon
I love the Bradley signing (but I can’t believe he’ll be 100% healthy on Opening Day, right?) … and if we get Cameron or Fukodome signed, then the OF is all set (at least the post-game-25 OF if it’s Cameron we sign) …
Both Geer and Ramos are long-shots to be valuable starting pitchers in MLB … there’s just not much precident for pitchers with their profile to succeed in MLB … so I think that “gut feel” is “wishful thinking” … and so I’m with TW in that the Padres would be better off finding a wishful-thinking-GM to trade them to … for somebody Heath-Bell-like
149: Porcello, the minute after he signed, was worth a lot more than Schmidt plus the difference in their signing bonuses. Porcello by himself goes a long way to getting Cabrera/Santana/Bedard/Haren. Even a healthy Schmidt doesn’t come close, let alone the “workhorse” Schmidt who lasted a couple of weeks. Add any of those players to the Padres and we’re a prohibitive favorite for the NL crown.
The difference in signing bonuses – not Porcello’s major league contract, which the other team would have to pay – is about half what we may pay Michael Barrett to be our backup catcher.
I’m not too hung up on Porcello, even though a management team supposedly devoted to exploiting undervalued opportunities should be pouncing on players who fall because of their bonus demands. There is a definite limit to how good we can draft when we are so heavily biased toward college players and will not pay more than slot to anyone.
152 … I understand and (for the most part) agree with you on this TW … the one missing factor, imo, is the “politics” of paying-over-slot … Moores does seem to have decided to follow-the-rules … and I can’t say his reasons for that are all bad … to some extent I understand the business (and therefore political) side of this is the real/true bottom line … and I understand that your primary point is that it makes good/great business-sense to draft and sign (ie. pounce on) players who fall because of their bonus demands …
152: I just don’t see the point in belaboring the fact that the Padres are electing to “follow the rules” with regard to the draft.
Kevin Goldstein on the Padres’ second round Rule 5 pick:
Padres select UT-S Callix Crabbe from the Brewers. I like this pick quite a bit. At 5-foot-7, Crabbe has never endeared himself to scouts, and he’ll never be more than what he is now, but he can hit a little, draws walks, runs well, and can play second base, third base, and all three outfield positions. How can that not be useful?
Chances To Stick: Good. There are many utility players in the big leagues right now with less versatility and less talent than Callix Crabbe. Plus, his name is awesome.
153, 154: When 25 other teams don’t follow the rules and there’s neither a punishment for them or a benefit to the conformists to doing so, they aren’t rules. They’re a way for a few teams, like the Padres, to control costs with a built-in cover story.
Teams with great farm systems are doing one or both of two things: Paying more than slot or exploiting undervalued talents. We’re doing neither. You can build a good system doing what we do. For a minimal additional investment, good turns into great.
The two most valuable players on the current roster, Peavy and Young, both signed for more than slot. Neither would have been signed by the current regime.
The Associated Press story on Bradley isn’t saying it’s a done deal. His agent certainly isn’t in the story. I don’t think Krasovic’s says so, either. But SA talked as if it was finished.
any word on arbitration filings? deadline was 12pm e.s.t., I believe….
wait, nevermind, deadline is Friday at midnight, I think. I’m just jumpy….
Alderson also confirmed the Padres have made an offer to Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, calling it “one of the two or three biggest offers” in team history.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=ArQQyKFJBm5wsrEf_kGOxQgRvLYF?slug=ap-padres-bradley&prov=ap&type=lgns
For all those who don’t think the Padres pony up the dough, see above:
Ugh! 149: Andrew Miller supposedly dropped into the Tigers lap and they overspent to get him too. A. Miller is NOT turning out how they’d hoped (since traded to Florida, obviously)… JUST like with the big leagues, JUST spending more money doesn’t make the farm better. EVERY team has to put a dollar amount on players, if that player doesn’t accept what the team thinks is right, the team SHOULD move on. If a team cannot trust it’s own decision-making process it ain’t worth the grass they play on… Now I’m not ignorant enough to think that money isn’t an advantage, but it isn’t the end-all, be-all either.
158 & 159 Midnight EST
162.
Are you serious Peter? A. Miller isn’t turning out how they expected? Correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t he and Maybin (2 guys who fell because of signing demands and I believe were both paid over slot) just net the Tigers Cabrerra and Willis? Andrew Miller has sick disgusting stuff that he backs up with a 97mph heater. I think he is also like 21 or 22 and I’m guessing here but he has probably spent more time in the majors than in the minors since being drafted less than 2 years ago. Miller’s numbers were for sure nothing to go around bragging about but for a first year player having very little time in the minors I wouldn’t be pissed if I were the Tigers. Before the Cabrerra deal came along Miller was also said to be untouchable.
I agree with your point that spending money doesn’t just make your system better by default but I think you could have used plenty of other examples to prove your solid point.
I don’t think the argument being made was spend money or your farm system will suck. I think it is more along the lines of when you are given the opportunity to draft a player that is a top talent and don’t because of money you are possibly limiting your long term potential.
162: I think TW’s point is that the front office isn’t properly valuing these players with exceptional talent and signability concerns. Andrew Miller being traded for Miguel Cabrera already returned more value to the Tigers than the money he signed for. Rick Porcello is already worth more than he signed for because of his trade value. Refusing to pay more than the player is worth is a good principle, but only if you have them properly valued. Sure, these high priced guys mean more risk and many of them don’t pan out, but these guys are probably the easiest way to get star players in the system while picking in the high teens and twenties every year. With the front office’s excellent work exploiting other market inefficiencies like character concerns or guys coming off bad seasons, you would expect they would be all over this opportunity to gain a competitive advantage. Yet instead of spending over slot on the draft they’re re-allocating resources to spend $1 million on Geoff Blum, or $150,000 for players that are not nearly as talented and have only a small chance to improve the team.
162: Seriously?
Miller was drafted in 2006. He’s already played in the majors. The Tigers didn’t trade him because they were disappointed with his performance. They traded him because it got them MIGUEL CABRERA and DONTRELLE WILLIS for two years each. Plus, they know they’ll have a chance to draft well again. Paying over slot for those two, to the tune of a couple of million dollars total, allowed them to get one of baseball’s best young hitters and a pitcher who, if you’re really serious about your criticisms of Miller, is an immediate upgrade.
If Miller was a Padre he’d be our #1 prospect and quite possibly in our starting rotation. It’s not hard to imagine how positive you’d be when talking about a LH starting pitcher with that kind of stuff.
The Padres don’t set a dollar value on players that takes into account their talent and their trade value as a prospect. They let the commissioner’s office do it for them.
I know this is a Padre/Baseball blog, but sometimes you just come across something that makes you proud that you can watch him every week. This is an article about LT and a preface to his appearance on 60 Minutes on Sunday.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/12/06/60minutes/main3585567.shtml
Look, I think Andrew Miller is solid, but K-rates decline once a player gets to the majors… A. Miller, for all his “devestating” stuff only has a 7.5 K/9 in the minors. Guys who do that grow on trees. It’s just like Jared Wells. Wells had the best velocity of any Juco pitcher when the Padres signed him. Now he’s in relief. Miller, again, may have a 97 MPH fastball, but he surely isn’t missing as many bats as you’d expect. There’s an old baseball adage that applies here, “the hitter will tell you how good the pitcher’s stuff is.” And the hitters hit Miller a lot harder (or lay off his out-of-the-strike zone pitches at a great enough rate) to tell us that he was NOT worthy #1 overall money. I’d much rather have Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincicum, and Travis Snyder; each players drafted after Miller who signed for more than $1m less than Miller…
Best sushi dinner I ever had was in Chicago…the chef has since moved to LA, but I did eat it in Chicago…
And Andrew Miller has turned out as well or better than what the Tigers hoped…sure, he is no longer with them, but to echo what TW said, they got Miguel Cabrera and Willis…I am not a fan of Willis, but Cabrera is one of the top 3 or 4 hitters in the game and Willis is a servicable mid-rotation starter….
Peter…how many scouts or teams would have said that they would take Lincicum or Kershaw or Snyder 2 years ago? Heck, the Giants are talking about moving Lincicum for Rios…a good player, but not of the type Cabrera is…
168: Andrew Miller went from low A to the majors in 2006. Most prospects spend at least 3-4 years in the minors, getting accustomed to the competition, moving up, repeat. Miller got almost no adjustment period at any level.
But how good he is or will be doesn’t even matter. The Tigers didn’t even pay 2 million dollars total over slot for the players they traded to Florida. Cabrera and Willis would cost them an investment of 200 million on the free agent market.
155: How is he different in total production from Craig Stansberry? Stansberry can actually play short, did it last year, and has more power. Callix has more speed. If Callix is a legitimate OF, so is Stansberry.
It’s not a big deal on its own, but it doesn’t make sense to spend 50 grand on a player you already had when you count every penny in the draft.
169: But they didn’t trade Miller for Cabrera straight up… I think it was more Cabrera for Maybin and Willis for Miller and plus-plus-plus to get the job done on both accounts.
Lincicum was being looked at as #1 overall… Kershaw went 1 behind Miller so had to be in play in that area. Snyder (along with Rolle) were talked about as the best HS bats in the draft.
Miller get to the MLB after only Low-A was a condidition of his contract, not an earned right of passage.
173: I don’t know how you can parse the trade up that way. If Maybin and Miller aren’t part of the package, neither Marlin comes north.
It doesn’t matter why Miller went to the majors so soon. His incredibly rapid promotion explains why his K numbers mean a lot less than they usually would. Less than 12 months after signing he was in the majors for real with Detroit. He’s thrown in 18 minor league games, you can’t look for any kind of strict K/9 rates in 85 innings spread between three levels.
One Trackback
[...] 1 – Part 2 – Part 3 – Part 4 – Part [...]