Reminder to folks here in San Diego: I’ll be on “SportsWrap” this Sunday evening at 11:35 p.m. PT. Tune to NBC 7/39 for your chance to see a real-live baseball dork on television.
To the links…
- Bill Center at the U-T takes a look at roster possibilities. According to this, Glendon Rusch will be in the bullpen and Wil Ledezma (who is out of options) likely will be on the staff in some capacity. In related news, Jim Edmonds is
optimistichopeful he’ll be ready for Opening Day. - Tom Krasovic at the U-T offers encouraging news on rehabbing pitchers Mark Prior and Clay Hensley (h/t LynchMob):
The surgeon’s work is enabling Prior to throw with proper form, to repeat the same release point that he had before injuries led to compensation issues and degraded his silky delivery.
He said he is able to get the extension and angle needed to hit the low-outside portion of the strike zone, or just wide of it. Last spring training, Prior said, he wasn’t able to smoothly get that done. “I’d come around the ball,” he said, tilting his right hand inward.
Proof is in the proverbial pudding (is that like tapioca?), but this at least sounds promising.
- I loved watching the games in China, but I’m kinda bummed we didn’t get to see Jet Li throw out the ceremonial first pitch before Game 2.
- We also didn’t get to see the cheerleaders.
- There are a couple of new Padres blogs out there worth visiting. Planet Padres has a bunch of cool photos from Peoria (h/t LynchMob), while the Swinging Friar interviews Padres.com beat writer Corey Brock. Stop by and say hey, if you haven’t already.
- Also, FriarBall has moved. These will all be updated at PadreBlogs.com within the next day or two.
- Keeping with this theme, MB of Friar Forecast fame has joined San Diego Spotlight, and his first post there is a dandy. Among other things, we learn that Greg Maddux throws a much higher percentage of fastballs than Jake Peavy does.
- Mark Thoma at the Riverside Press-Enterprise has written a nice article on Chase Headley (h/t Pat). Among other things, Headley talks about his approach at the plate:
…the biggest thing is learning what pitch you can drive rather than going up there and hitting a pitch that you can put in play but not hit for power. Strikeouts are a product of seeing a lot of pitches.
- Calling my own number, I’ve penned a Padres preview over at Razzball. It has a fantasy slant and is mostly review material for readers o’ the ’snort.
- Dirk Hayhurst’s latest “Non-Prospect Diary” is up at Baseball America. This time he talks about winning a championship at Double-A San Antonio last season:
I know it takes more then one person to play this sport. I know there are nine positions on a baseball field. But the concept of team is more then the numbers required to fill locations. I’d be a fool to tell you money doesn’t talk in this world of ours, and be lying if I said I don’t want to beat all comers to a spot in the bigs. Yet, in my heart, I still believe this is a team game. Not because of what old coaches preach, what numbers say, or what Disney movies evoke. I believe this is a team game because I know what its like to lose with a team, and win with one . . .
Maybe he’ll win with the Padres one day.
- Rich at Baseball Analysts examines pitchers (starters | relievers) based on their strikeout and groundball rates (h/t Jim Parish). As if we needed further evidence that Cla Meredith is superfreaky, yow…
- My esteemed colleague Rob McQuown ranks prospects at Baseball Digest Daily (h/t Pat). Among hitters, Chase Headley checks in at #25, Kyle Blanks at #29, and Matt Antonelli at #34. Will Inman is #14 among pitchers, which may come as a bit of a shock to some folks (okay, me).
- Brandon Isleib at Hardball Times examines Bert Blyleven’s career, specifically how much fan (and media) exposure he received during his playing days. In light of our recent discussion on marquee players, I found this an interesting line of inquiry. As Yogi Berra might say, It’s hard to be famous if nobody knows who you are.
- I would kill to have a business like MLB. No matter how much you screw things up, people keep coming back for more (h/t LynchMob). Really, where’s the incentive to improve the product?
That otter do it. Have a happy Friday, and be excellent…
108 Comments
Stolen from GLB, but a great article on Khalil from AZ Central: http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/cactus/articles/0319cac-padres0320.html
Also, looks like Edmonds won’t be ready: http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080320&content_id=2448080&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=sd
Edmonds won’t be ready? I’m shocked! Shocked, I say!!
2: I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
Love Hayhurst’s stuff! I’m going to keep my eye on him this year, kinda like I’ve been doing with Chris Coste for a few years now. After reading Chris’ first book, I couldn’t help but follow his path to the Majors. heh I think I even drafted him as my back up catcher in this years Ducksnorts Fantasy Baseball League.
1 … the last line from the link to the update on Edmonds says this …
Edmonds’ tenuous status has left Towers and manager Bud Black several options for the start of the season. On Thursday, Scott Hairston started in center field with Jody Gerut in left, which could be a preview of Opening Day on March 31 against Houston.
… this appears to be reality … and I’m OK with this … I liked what I saw from Gerut … and I like sending Headley down to AAA for a while … and I like have McAnulty on the bench …
The biggest concern, obviously, is if Edmonds can shake this calf problem … he really needs to take his time on this. It was my understanding that he came into camp “in great shape” … so how/why did this happen? And given that it did, it just seems like a deal-breaker … ie. an injury that will be nag’ing him all season … and I think he needed to be near 100% to be productive …
5: where are gene kingsale and freddy guzman when you need them????????????
5: I would suggest, this shows the folly of training with a non baseball traininer, then declaring yourself “Fit.” There is a big difference between being in shape to play a 162 MLB season, and being in shape as defined by a SWAT officer. Improper training can just easily set you up injury, as prepare you to play baseball.
Two things from that article in the UT today scare me:
Figure Ledezma, who is out of options, has earned a spot in either the rotation or the bullpen. The Padres refuse to rule out Estes, who they say is pitching better than his spring numbers in his return from 2006 elbow reconstruction surgery.
I don’t know if I can watch a team that starts Shawn Estes. Any team that has Estes or Wil Ledezma in key roles isn’t going to compete.
Loved this bit from the UT:
>>Geoff Blum, who could capably play every infield position and still be a threat at the plate. <<
A threat to which team?
Bill Center’s article also left Carlos Guevara off. I would think that his potential is as high as Wil Ledezma’s and he’s “out of options” as well.
6: Don’t forget Kerry Robinson
In regards to the Ronald Blum article can you imagin what the price of tix are going to increase when the new stadiums are opened in NY.
The 2005 Astros, duh!
(that was re: #9)
11: Don’t forget Mike Darr. Wait, never mind.
OT … Crisp has been hurt for the BoSox …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Arb9vuBwj1Ri8McPzsibwZMRvLYF?slug=ap-redsox-roster&prov=ap&type=lgns
OT … it’s “upset day” in the NCAA’s … http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab … 2 of the first 4 games today … and that doesn’t count Miami’s W over St Mary’s (which the Sagarin Rankings say was an upset) … it’s madness!
It’s refreshing to see a national sports writer say that the D’Backs are in no way a lock this season: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/john_donovan/03/21/donovan.dbackscoring/index.html?eref=T1
9: Perfect! He was also “capably” playing the middle infield positions for the opposition. I wonder how many times the phrase “just past Blum” were uttered by Padre broadcasters the last 2 years?
8: Agree. What does Estes have to do to be ruled out? Be caught in bed with the daughter or wife of a Padre executive? Six straight years of below-average or injury-crippled baseball aren’t enough, a below-average career on whole isn’t enough, a bad spring isn’t enough.
17: Not sure if Davidson winning was an upset. They were ranked in the top 25 and have one of the top 15 players in the country in Stephen Curry. He scored 40 points and made it look pretty easy.
Kouz puts the Padres up 1-0 in the top of the first with a solo shot to dead center. Peavy’s on the hill for us today against the Brewers.
Jay Jaffe @ BP comes up with a new acronym … MISERs (Maximum Impact SEtup Relievers) … http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7258 (sub only) … and after determining a method for ranking relief pitchers to determine who the MISERs have been since 2001 (essentially = expected wins added per nine innings (WXRL/9)), he says this …
it’s really Kevin Towers who deserves the applause; Linebrink, Cla Meredith, Akinori Otsuka, Heath Bell, Clay Hensley, and Steve Reed give the Padres impressively consistent representation here.
… yup, Jay gets it!
21 … “live” box …
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2008_03_21_sdnmlb_milmlb_1
… but it doesn’t yet have KK’s HR …
23 … I guess if the Padres get a big rally going in the 1st inning, they don’t want Jake to participate in it … they’ve got Parrino listed in the 9th spot in the starting lineup
3: Outstanding!
Jake not having a good first inning. 2 walks + 3-run bomb to Braun. Not good. He’s definitely struggling with his command.
5 & 7: He may very well have been in great shape, but he’s 37, nearly 38, and he’s played a demanding game, in terms of its wear and tear on the body, professionally since he was 18.
True, if the trainer trained him like he was a SWAT officer, but we don’t know that. He may be a very qualified trainer and worked with Edmonds in a sport specific manner. But Jim is old (see above) and it could very well just have been an old man’s injury.
Matthew, I loved that line as well. I think it was clearly the Padres who were threatened by Silent L.
Can you imagine if they open the season with Estes, Rusch, and Ledezma as pitchers? 25% of your staff looking more like the Royals pitching staff (I can’t even rip on the Pirates here since they won’t even have that many stiffs in their staff).
I’ve been pretty critical of their infatuation with Jody Gerut but at least his good season was this decade (nevermind that he’s hasn’t shown a thing since then) but Estes last (and only) good year was 10 years ago! Not sure exactly what in his profile screams “Breakout Candidate.”
17 … being “upset” day, it’s a good day for USD to play …
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/boxscore?gid=200803210129
… they are up 34-29 at the half!
8: “Any team that has Estes or Wil Ledezma in key roles isn’t going to compete.”
Really? One player/pitcher is going to ruin an entire team’s ability to compete? Sure, it would be great to have someone stronger in the 5th spot, and 99% of the rest of MLB teams feel the same way. But to think that having a horrendous number 5 is going to prevent the Padres from being competitive is just wrong.
Now combine that with a highly unsettled OF situation and it’s more of a concern, but on its own it isn’t a season killer.
26: Is Jake pitching? The box score is sowing Parrino.
32 … I think “Parrino” is a minor-league catcher …
23 … mlb.com’s live box now shows Peavy in the game … and Peavy/Bard as having CS’d Mike Cameron
34: Pretty sure that didn’t happen.
McAnulty with a run-scoring double in the first … must have been a deep double ’cause it scored Tony Clark from 1B … even with 2-outs, that’s gotta be rare
34: In fact, Cameron stole off that combo.
Schlom, what’s the point of bringin this up again? We get it. You think our rotation sucks. Thanks for that. There’s nothing to be done about it.
36: He ripped it down the line. Took third on the throw home.
Man, people are teeing off on Jake today. Kendall and Fielder have almost gone deep today.
The box score lists these as the umps for today’s game …
Umpires: HP: Bob Davidson. 1B: Derryl Cousins. 2B: Jim Joyce. 3B: Mike Winters.
… is the guy on 3B Milton’s friend? Man, it doesn’t seem right that that guy is still an MLB ump …
#29: Schlom, how many wins are you predicting for the Padres this year? I’m going with 86 or 87.
Everyone else: I’ve created a new poll asking this very question. Go nuts.
Chase with an assist, nailing Fielder at home. Described as a perfect 1-hop throw.
37 … my bad … thanks for the correction … wishful reading/thinking on my part … Cameron did indeed SB (rather than CS) on Peavy/Bard …
Home Opener 2008:
in 10 days, 13 hours, 56 minutes
… but who among us is counting? (hint: I *am*
)
43: Hah, no worries. If it makes you feel any better, Kouz’s homer went right over Cameron’s head.
Chase with 2 Ks today
42 … cool-e-o … Chase won’t be at AAA for long … I’ll be out of town during this opening home stand, so won’t get to see them until April 19th … wonder if he’ll still be there?
Originally I thought they should win about the same as last year. Now I’m not so sure. When you are close enough to competing for the division title, why throw roster spots (and games) away? You would think that they would have learned from last year where the lack of effective starters outside of the top 3 cost them the division title. They sort of fixed it by signing Randy Wolf but why are they messing around with Estes, Ledezma and Rusch? At least Germano is young.
Also, the Opening Day outfield is going to be one of the worst in the majors, especially defensively. Some of their roster choices (if they happen) make me think that the Padres aren’t trying to compete this season.
If Shawn Estes or Wil Ledezma is the 5th starter in the beginning of the season, I’m going to predict around 80 wins.
30 … USD misses a layup at the buzzer … going to OT …
USD is going into overtime. Missed a layup at the buzzer and they couldn’t put it away at the free throw line at the end as they only made 2 of 4.
#47: Okay. When is the last time the Royals or the Pirates won 80 games in a season?
This game shows how hard it will be for Memphis to win the National Championship. It’s nearly impossible to win a close game when you can’t make your free throws.
Congrats to USD. I hate basketball, but I’ll have to watch the next round.
Warning for USD fans … Western Kentucky is good … just sayin’ … congrats to Torero’s! It’s madness at its finest!
#53: UConn was good, too. This is insane. It’s probably the biggest sports moment in school history.
Yeah. Go Toreros!
I didn’t say they say they were the Royals or Pirates, just some of their roster decision sound like something those two teams would do.
Here’s what I think a GM should do every off-season. You should look at your core (the players you have signed) and try to figure out how many wins you think you should have. Based on last season, I would figure the Padres to be around 85 wins or so. Then you have to figure out how many wins it will take to compete for a playoff spot. In the NL West, it’s probably around 90. So the Padres would need to find about 5 more wins. I suspect the core will be about the same (I could give a rundown but then the post will be too long).
Do you think the moves they made are good enough to improve the team? As bad as Germano and Wells were last season, will Estes and Ledezma be an improvement? Cameron to Edmonds is a big drop while LF will probably be worse too (2B will likely be better though). And the players they’ve brought in are either aging or have major injury question marks (or more seriously both).
I guess my broader point is why waste the prime years of their young core? If they aren’t going to spend any money now what are they going to do when their core players start aging? Is this going to be an Oakland A’s situation where we are going to look back and think what might have been? At least the A’s won more then one playoff game in their run. What happens if their prospects don’t pan out? They are going to have to rely on Towers to make magnificent trades (how many trades in baseball history have been as one-sided as the one with the Rangers? That doesn’t seem like something to rely on.
The Padres might go into the season with 3 players on their 25 man roster that were non-roster invitees (Estes, Rusch, Gerut) plus at least one or two Rule V guys (Crabbe, Guevara). By definition, those are all players not good enough to be on any teams 40 man roster (broadly, they aren’t among the best 1200 players in baseball). Do people feel comfortable about that? (Let me say I’m perfectly fine with Crabbe and stashing Guevara in the bullpen as they really won’t be expected to contribute much).
I’m not trying to be too negative here but I’m just trying to figure out what their rational is for some of the moves they are making. If they have hopes for competing for a playoff spot (and I think that they do), shouldn’t you be able to come up with something better then Jody Gerut as the Opening Day LF and Shawn Estes or Wil Ledezma in the rotation? I’d rather have Wade Leblanc in there, at least he has potential. Same thing with Headley in LF. But it seems like the Padres would rather slow down their arbitration clock than win — although that didn’t work out so well for Milwaukee last season, did it?
At the risk of starting another money-based string of discussion, check out what MLB is doing to the Cape Cod League …
http://www.capecodonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080307/NEWS/803070339/-1/SPORTS
#56: The trouble is, you’re not giving the Padres much credit for not being the Royals or Pirates.
First off, it’s not Estes and Ledezma that are replacing Wells and Germano, it’s Wolf and one of Estes/Ledezma/Germano. I’m pretty confident that Wolf will be better than Wells. If Germano sticks at #5, then we’re in the same position as last year. If it’s Estes or Ledezma, well, obviously that’s a problem.
I’ll give you center field, but I don’t believe that left will be worse than last year. The combination of Hairston, Gerut, and Headley should produce about as much as last year’s plethora.
As for Towers, it’s not that he made one great trade, it’s that he’s exhibited a pattern of making great trades. You cite Gerut’s past in talking about his future, but you won’t extend the same courtesy to Towers. I’m at a loss to explain why.
56: There’s a big difference between “not being among the best 1200″ and “not being considered to be among one team’s best 40 players.” Even then it won’t always be judged on “best,” because of the Rule 5 situation, a team may choose to protect a player who can’t contribute for a couple of years and risk losing someone else. The Brewers risked losing a utility player. We risked and lost on Soria.
I don’t see a big difference between this year’s squad and last year’s, which doesn’t make me all that happy, but certainly doesn’t make me think the season is over before it begins.
We had Rule 5 relievers both years.
Crabbe is going to be at least as valuable as Blum, in all likelihood. i don’t care where he came from, waivers, Rule 5, trade.
Cameron to Edmond is a downgrade.
NOG to Iguchi is an upgrade.
Peavy to Peavy is a likely downgrade.
I really wish they’d done something about the back of the rotation besides filling it with garbage, piling dirt on top, and calling it a park. But that’s what we did last year and we won 89 games, so it’s survivable. Not optimal, but survivable.
I don’t see why a team trying to compete and not waste the years of its core would be better off with LeBlanc, who is at least as likely to struggle as he is to contribute, than with Germano or Rusch. Estes, I give you, he looks like a terrible decision if he’s on the roster. There’s not much else he could do badly over the past 5 years and yet he’s still in the running.
re: LF … on page 32 of the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual (a book I can heartily recommend
), it says that the the 2007 Padres got 4 Win Shares from LF … this matches my perception … but I think the conversation here over the off-season is that LF’ers did better than the consensus of observers, and I think that’s a mistake … perhaps because players like Cruz contributed some of their good stats while playing RF? … or PHing?
My point being that I think between Hairston + Gerut + McAnulty and Headley, I’m thinking that plethora is a lock for more than 4 WSs in 2008!
54: We beat UConn? Holy Cow! That is huge for USD.
54: We beat UConn? Holy Cow! That is huge for USD.
Padres lose 4-3 to Brewers … scoreless innings from Rusch, Thatcher and Bass … hmmm, Bass, queue Masticore! …
Headley with 3 Ks … “Perry” in LF? Who? Cedric Hunter with another AB (and another K, but he’s an A-ball guy for sure) …
The problem is that the Padres are relying on a lot of ifs. If Wolf can stay healthy. If Prior can contribute. If CY doesn’t get hurt again. If Germano can pitch like he did in the 1st half rather then the 2nd. If Edmonds can stay healthy and play a decent defensively CF. If Giles is healthy and can slug above .400. If Headley can jump from AA and can hit in the majors and handle LF. If Hairston can play CF or play everyday in LF. That seems like a lot of ifs, doesn’t it? More then a contender should have. It’s not like the Padres are in the AL East either, the other teams in our division are good but it’s not like they are juggernauts.
The problem is that it’s probably not possible to have a low payroll and win unless you have a ton of young players on your team — and the Padres haven’t drafted well enough lately.
65: Leave the horse alone; it’s been dead for days now.
I said I have no problem with Crabbe or Guevara (or anyone in the bullpen for that matter) as they won’t play enough in key roles for it to likely matter.
Go back and look at Gerut or Rusch’s career stats — what exactly is in there that would make you think that they could contribute? Remember, were not the Royals or Pirates who can afford to give 400 ABs or 150 IP to players like that since it doesn’t really matter one way or the other.
Last season, LF hit 252/340/462 with 28 2B, 5 3B, 30 HR. I don’t think that it’s likely that the group they have now will improve much on that. Even 2B probably won’t have that much of an improvement (247/320/342) when you figure that Iguchi is moving from two of the best hitters parks to Petco.
The Padres have consistently had a lower, usually much lower, payroll than the Dodgers and Giants, yet have posted winning records for four straight years, including 2 division titles, and 1 game out of the playoffs last year. Your constant reminders of how low their payroll is are really getting tiresome.
You are being way too harsh on a team with limited resources and trying to overcome a recent history of poor drafting (02-04) in terms of what you “expect” the team to have in its stables. All teams have questions; the Padres can be expected to have more than other teams, less than a few. Yet they still have managed to be competitive four years running. They are doing much more right than wrong.
Your criticism of their starting rotation is particularly silly. Most teams do not have a reliable 5th starter, let alone a reliable 4th starter. Most teams hope for a league average 4th starter and slightly below league average 5th starter, and that is if they are fortunate. The Padres have a good shot at matching expectations there. It could turn out better if Prior and Rusch and Hensley come back from their injuries. Estes doesn’t bother me at all but I don’t see him making the team just yet; if he is willing to accept AAA and finds his velocity and location, he could be a typical 5th starter, not much to write home about. The team is a lot deeper in the pitching rotation than it has been in a while; it is not ideal depth but they aren’t the Yankees or Red Sox (oops, 2 big time starters down) or the Dodgers.
The Padres have done a fine job of making do with what they have.
And big props to USD for making do with what they had.
Why does it matter that other teams hope to have a decent 4th or 5th starter? What does that have to do with the Padres? Basically your argument is that since other teams have crappy pitching, it’s OK for the Padres? Beating out the Giants or Dodgers isn’t really saying that much as they’ve both made some horrible roster decisions over the past few years.
Are you kidding that pitching Estes doesn’t bother you? Look at his stats again
http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/estessh01.shtml
GY … in your book, you have 2007 Padres LFers down for 4 WSs … do you have the details / stats behind that?
Schlom … in 67, you said “Last season, LF hit 252/340/462 with 28 2B, 5 3B, 30 HR” … how did you figure that?
I think this has been a common misunderstanding of ours … I’m interested to get us aligned on the facts … because I’m really liking our 2008 LF situation better than I liked our 2007 LF situation (I *never* liked Jose Cruz, Jr) …
OK, I’ll be the first to admit when I’m wrong.
Shawn Estes is the worst option for the Padres rotation:
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/ComparePitchers.py?StartDate=04%2F01%2F2002&EndDate=10%2F01%2F2007&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&SortField=CASE+WHEN+FractionalInnings+%3E+0+THEN+27.0*EarnedRuns%2FFractionalInnings+ELSE+0.0+END&SortDir=desc&MinPA=162&MinDEC=0&MinG=0&MinGS=100&MinCG=0&MinGF=0&MinW=0&MinL=0&MinSV=0&MinSHO=0&MinH=0&MinR=0&MinER=0&MinHR=0&MinBB=0&MinK=0&MinHP=0&MinBK=0&MinWP=0
Wow, that link didn’t work at all, not sure why. Anyway, it was the worst ERA for a pitcher with at least 100 Games Started since 2002. Estes was 2nd with a 5.42 ERA, Casey Fossum was worst with a 5.49.
LynchMob, I just took the splits from the team page on Baseball Reference.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=SDP&year=2007
69 … cool the jets a bit, Schlom … TF didn’t say what you quote him to say … he said “Estes doesn’t bother him” because he’s not expecting him to make the team … you quote him as “pitching Estes doesn’t bother you?” … see the difference? I think the consensus is that if Estes pitches for the Padres in the opening series, we will all be bothered … if he goes down to AAA and magic happens and he can earn a callup to replace an injured long-reliever (or even starter) and make a contribution, then I think we’ll all be happy … that’s all … I think we’re all with you on Estes … he’s a long-shot … but then again, so was USD
72 … THANKS for the link … very good stats there! I don’t browse the B-R PI enough …
GY … what’s your source for the WSs? Seems like the WS don’t align with this cut of data from B-R PI …
Except the comparable Estes longshot would be the New Jersey Institute of Technology beating UCLA!
I guess I’m just confused on why they are bothering. It’s true he’s not the worst option out there, they could throw me out there and I’d be worse by a ton, but he’s pretty close to it. Are they gambling on a return to his form from 11 years ago? The same thing with Jody Gerut, why even bother. Either Headley is the best option or he’s not. What’s the point of screwing around with Gerut? Isn’t that the same thing that we did in the beginning of last season? As we saw last season one game makes a huge difference. Why are we going into the season with lesser options? Not addressing the 4th and 5th starter positions last season ended up costing them a playoff spot — and who knows what would have happened?
Low round draft pick Robert Perry hit .317 at AZL Padres last year. Gets an at bat in SpTraining game. Remember this kid, he may get 3 starts this year in centerfield.
64: Bass Bass Bass!
If you look at espn.com stats you can actually rank them by team (which you can’t do on BR). The Padres LF was actually 15th in the majors in OPS which is pretty impressive considering park effects aren’t taking into consideration. That’s why I don’t think LF will be improved much.
The by position stats are kind of interesting, who knew that the Padres DH’s just barely outhit the pitchers? 393 vs. 382 (only 27 PAs for DHs though). Comparing the Padres to other teams, the strength last year was at catcher (111 OPS+) and pitcher (110 OPS+). They were also above average at 1B (106) and CF (102). As expected, 2B (76 OPS+), RF (86) and 3B (93) really dragged down the offense.
75 … I think I’ve answered the “why bother” question before … the Padres have done something that I don’t think you’ve done … they’ve seen these guys play VERY RECENTLY … and I’ll be they think that’s a pretty good predictor of how they will do in the near-term. I’m kinda glad you’re lumping Estes and Gerut together, because they show the extremes … I think we all agree that Estes seems to be VERY unlikely to be able to contribute to the 2008 Padres (which I presume is your point of “why bother”) … but I think the answer lies in players like Gerut … who I think *will* contribute to the 2008 Padres … I think that’s ‘nuf said … if a team “bothers” to take 10 long-shot crap-shoots and comes up with 1 or 2 players that contribute more Win Shares than they’d get if they didn’t bother, then isn’t that a good thing?
77 … I knew you’d check in! Sure seems like that kid is still in the running for a spot in the ‘pen … and worst case scenario would seem to be a job in AAA with an open ticket back to SD if/when a need arises … cool beans!
78 … hmmm, I’m confused by the “3B (93)” figure (ie. I don’t know what that means nor how it was calc’d)? KK’s OPS+ was 109, per http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kouzmke01.shtml … and he played 136 games at 3B … did whomever played 3B the other 27 games suck that bad? Eh, I’ll be Blum was a lot of those … so perhaps so …
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gerutjo01.shtml
What in there makes you think he’d contribute? He’s shown even less then Termel Sledge and Jose Cruz Jr and that cost us last season. Gerut was good in 2003 but in 2004 he was the 2nd worst RF’er in baseball. And he’s been even worse since then. I guess it’s possible that he starts off the season on fire and the Padres are able to trade him and then install Headley but the odds seem very low.
I’m concerned since it seems like the team hasn’t learned the lessons from the previous seasons. Last year we lost because we didn’t have adequate replacements beyond the top 3 starters after injuries and ineffectiveness. We also tried a cheap, low potential platoon in LF. Won’t everyone be very disappointed if the same thing plays out this season?
From BR:
sOPS+ – OPS+ of this split relative to the major league OPS for this split: 100*((split OBP/ML avg. OBP of split) + (split SLG/ML avg. SLG of split) – 1)
The definition is saying both OPS and OPS+ so I’m not sure which one they use.
Not at all. Instead of having to go to Tim Redding and Dewon Brazelton, the team has or could have Clay Hensley, Mark Prior, Glendon Rusch, Wade LeBlanc, Justin Germano. Even Tim Stauffer can be serviceable for a game or two.
Where were your options for LF before this year? Don’t recall you posting any brilliant cost-effective ideas. Please dig them up from the Ducksnorts archives so I can look at them and see if you are any sort of Nostradamus.
If Gerut is healthy, he should be fine. Hairston can be serviceable if used right, and may even have upside if playing OF fulltime instead of being infrequently used. Headley waits in the wings to take over full time if either or both falter; we should know he can hit; fielding is in question.
I’m more concerned about CF.
80 – I’ve been really rooting for Bass since we signed him in November. He hasn’t disappointed yet, but it’s still gonna be tough to squeeze him onto the roster with Germano and Ledezma without options.
Again, take a look at Gerut’s stats and tell me why you think he’ll be a good option.
I think Hairston should be in LF. If Giles is done then you move Hairston to right and play Headley in LF. That still could leave a big hole in CF but that’s another problem.
What you just described as the pitching options are pretty much the same ones as they had last season and it didn’t work out then. I guess it work out this season though. I know that the Padres aren’t the Royals because they have a bunch of good players but they are taking the Royals approach to filling some of their holes.
I don’t think people realize how bad Gerut has been outside of his rookie year. He’s hitting 252/335/390. That’s Termel Sledge like (coincidentally they were born exactly a half year apart, 3/18/77 for Sledge, 9/17/77 for Gerut).
Schlom, yes, we all know how you feel about Gerut. You can stop foaming at the mouth trying to use him as a proof that the Padres are not going to be successful.
I don’t hear any solution coming from you. It’s bitch, bitch, bitch and it’s tiresome.
I think he’ll be a lot better than Termell Sledge when healthy. If not, there is Chase Headley ready to play. I’m far more concerned with having healthy arm that can pitch in average ML starter for the #4-#7 spots. I see no reason for Estes to make the team and I’d rather see how Germano is going to pitch this year after the experience he has in the second half of last season.
85: Bass might get his chance yet if not right after Spring Training, sometime during the season. His numbers are pretty good. It’ll be a rotating back of rotation for the Padres this year unless both Wolf and Prior are exceeding our expectations. I don’t see Ledezma as a starter at this point.
76: Thanks for the information. This does concern me that another OF is added to the league of the plethora.
84: I think Schlom’s overreacting in his critique of where some 2008 Padres came from, but that “depth” you’re talking about is largely just names, indistinguishable from what we had as backup starting pitchers in 04 through 07. The only year it worked was 2006, when Mike Thompson defied his track record and gave us reasonable value. Redding and Brazelton were 2 of the worst starters, but they were far from the only failures, and every name on your list has serious questions. Germano’s the only one who was healthy and reasonably effective in the majors last year, and “reasonably effective” was still only a 91 ERA+.
Speaking of Brazelton, many of the current Padre evaluators thought enough of him that he was in the Opening Day rotation, he wasn’t an injury replacement.
If the definition of depth is someone who can get lucky for a start or two, that’s anybody with enough breath to fog a mirror. Junior Herndon could be effective for a start or two, if every ground ball found a glove. Wishcasting isn’t planning. Piling up bodies isn’t depth, it’s landfill.
Why did Schlom need to posit a replacement LF for Gerut? The Padres are the ones who acquired Achy Breaky Edmonds to play CF, which immediately turned Hairston into a half-time or more CF. I see Gerut with some serious potential to do good, but I can’t see why Schlom’s point is invalid unless he drove a specific stake into the ground three months ago or so.
#87 Sledge and I share the same birthday? Gross.
Found this at Deadspin….”The slugger did get one offer Wednesday, to work in media relations for a minor league team. The Lake Elsinore Storm, a Class-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres, released a tongue-in-cheek statement announcing that the club has offered Bonds “a cushy Media Relations position (with slight pay cut from $19.3 million), full use of baseball facilities and of course expanded cubicle space with barcalounger and plasma TV.”
91 – Junior Herndon? I appreciate the sentiment, but that’s really stretching it.
Unfortunately it’s probably too late for free solutions. I would have signed Corey Patterson — we know that he can handle CF defensively and he’s at least played in the majors since 2005. That would slide Edmonds to a backup/spot start role or a platoon in LF with Hairston. Then you could keep Headley down to slow his arbitration clock or trade him. It would leave the OF kind of left-handed though which means that Davanon and Crabbe would have to make the team.
As far as pitching, they could have signed Kyle Lohse to a one year, $4m contract. That would give the Padres 4 starters likely to make more then 30 starts and would help if Wolf gets hurt (and take pressure off of Prior). They could use Germano if they had another injury or maybe call up Leblanc (or Hensley if he ever gets healthy this season) if it’s later in the season.
Doing both of those things wouldn’t cost that much and would improve on what they have now. And they would also make sense to the players involved, especially for Lohse.
92:
Signing the player that you are referring to would solve the LF problem but I’m sure signing him would start a firestorm, maybe literally.
93: If Tim Stauffer is “depth” because he can be effective for a game or two, then there’s no stretch. Herndon was effective for 4 games in 2001. By some people’s measurements, that almost makes him a legitimate 5th starter.
When people are saying “This year we’re much better because we have X, Y, and Z ready to take over,” it’s helpful to know that we had X, Y, and Z last year, too. And in 2005, and in 2004, and X, Y, and Z hurt us badly all three years. Just changing the names, without changing the likely production, doesn’t help. We’re relying too much on luck (maybe Prior will be healthy, maybe Hensley will be healthy, maybe Stauffer….won’t be Stauffer, maybe Leblanc or Geer won’t pitch like most rookies).
94: You lose me on Patterson. Signing a worse player than probably anyone else on our current roster doesn’t make us better. It’s important to be healthy, but also important not to suck. Agree on Lohse. He’d have probably made more sense than Wolf.
94: You do know that Patterson is terrible, right? He has a career OBP under .300 and below average power. His fielding while good doesn’t begin to make up for his lousy hitting.
As for your constant harping on Gerut, I don’t get it. He was a very good prospect, who had a series of leg problems and is by most accounts now healthy. Even having missed that time Pecota projects him with a weighted mean of .260 EQA and a breakout rate of about 30%
I kind of get the impression that the Padres are keeping the Bob Ficks and Shawn Estes around because they are trying to give them every opportunity to audition for jobs elsewhere. By all accounts Estes hasn’t performed well enough to crack the Padres 25 man roster, and he would be redundant. Rusch is outperforming him and has slightly more upside. The only way Estes makes this team is if he beat out Germano, and he’s not going to do that in the next week.
Schlom makes the same post every single day: Jody Gerut sucks, we should had signed Loshe, the Padres look like the Royals/Pirates. Moores is cheap. Its been the same thing for weeks on end it seems, and you repeat the comments so often you seem to derail and take over the threads nearly every day.
I read the Hayhurst article, and I must say that I’m impressed. That was very well written, and I’m glad he got to experience the feeling that he did. Championships really are a special moment for any athlete. If you’re able to lose yourself into a game, it makes it that much more special.
I don’t see how Padres left fielders compiled just four Win Shares. Milton Bradley had nine by himself. Jose Cruz had five. That’s 14.
Left field was a fairly productive position for the Padres, as evidenced by those totals on Baseball-reference.com. Four win shares would make it the worst position for any team in the majors, or something like that.
56: In essence, you are saying you know how to run a team, at least in the offseason, better than Kevin Towers.
That’s balls.
We’ll be OK in centerfield because Jim Edmonds is athletic….
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/03/21/heyman.stlbalt/index.html?eref=si_mlb
If it’s on the internet, it must be true, right?
96 – touche, regarding Herndon/Stauffer
I think if Edmonds starts the year on the DL the guys who are on the bubble for losing their spot when he comes back are PMAC, Gerut, or the extra infielder if we carry one (Rodriguez or Robles). Crabbe seems safe.
101: “That’s balls.” I’m glad someone finally said it!
#70: WS is for starting LF (i.e., the guy who played there the most), which in 2008 was Terrmel Sledge, who earned a whopping 4 of ‘em.
#106: To clarify further, I used the method employed by Bill James on pp. 946-969 of NBJHA. I realize now that I should have included an explanation in the book. That’s what I get for throwing something in at the last minute.
I’m not blaming Towers, I think he’s the best GM in baseball for acquiring players — not so good at the draft but so far it hasn’t really hurt the team.
How many of you knew that the Royals outspent the Padres by nearly 20% season? My main problem is that the Padres need to win this season, they can’t afford to take a season off. Their main competition (and now it’s three teams, no other division is as deep as the NL West) has either a lot more young (and therefore cheap) talent or will spend more money (or both). Even the hopeless team (the Giants) will spend money — although as long as they keep Sabean they probably won’t be good.
Moores’ refusal to spend money is really hamstringing the Padres prospects long-term — the Padres payroll was so low they might have gotten revenue sharing money last season. By spending an extra $6m they could have Lohse in the rotation and Rick Porcello as their top prospect. Maybe the Marlins would trade Hanley Ramirez (or maybe now that they have a new stadium agreement they’ll hold on to him). But let’s say they trade him for Headley (blocked by Kouz and not as valuable away from 3B), Porcello and Latos. That would give the Padres an infield of Bard, Gonzalez, Greene and Kouz and an outfield of Hairston, Ramirez and someone else. With the Padres rotation (especially if Prior pans out) that team would be the favorite in 2009 probably. Of course it would mean raising the payroll but unless you bring up your own players good players cost money. Of course maybe the Marlins wouldn’t trade Ramirez but Porcello would be an incredible trade chip (much bigger then the difference between his and Schmidt signing bonus).
The Padres are going to have to be very aggressive over the next couple of years if they want to compete in the NL West, especially with the Dodgers. Basically we are going to have to hope that the Dodgers prospects fail or Coletti either blocks them or trades them. But what happens if they get a GM that trusts young players?