Everybody Loves Tadahito
Thu, Mar 20, 2008
by Geoff Young
Says here we’ve been “dot-com” for 6 years now. Cool.
Anyway, I’m working on an interview with Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune (it’ll run on Monday), and one topic we discussed was potential surprises among Padres for 2008. The name that came up was new second baseman Tadahito Iguchi:
Iguchi had some problems with a finger injury early last year, and the White Sox were looking to save money. He’s a solid player, better than his stats of last summer would indicate.
When Lance and I visited Peoria a couple weeks ago, Iguchi kind of took us by surprise as well. Although he’s a compact guy, as I’ve mentioned previously, he really can drive the ball out to left and left-center. We’ll see how much of that is an artifact of the Arizona spring air, but after seeing Iguchi in person and talking to some folks, I’m starting to have a good feeling — in my usual guardedly optimistic way — about him.
The U-T, meanwhile, has a couple articles up about Iguchi. One talks about Iguchi’s childhood dreams to play in the North American big leagues, while the other focuses on his relationship with translator David Yamamoto.
Iguchi talks about coming to San Diego:
For me, it was very important to play in a city that would be right for my family. (Former Padre Akinori) Otsuka said San Diego is a good place.
My wife (Asumi) and daughter (Rio) moved into a home in San Diego in mid-February. My daughter is already in school. My family loves it there.
He also touches on the difference between spring training in Japan and on this side of the pond:
In Japan, spring is a military-style camp. It is a lot longer and every team has a goal . . . find a sense of unity. The whole team goes for early-morning walks and there are nightly meetings. The first two or three weeks, you work only on fundamentals.
The advantage of the American camps is that every facility has a lot of fields. Some players can be hitting while others are fielding. In Japan, there was only one field for each club.
Guess we’ll soon find out how justified our optimism is…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
March 20, 2008 at 8:45 am
Headley article:
http://www.pe.com/sports/baseb.....95a54.html
March 20, 2008 at 8:59 am
Most Underrated Prospects:
http://www.baseball-intellect......pects.html
Guess who checks in at #3?
March 20, 2008 at 9:02 am
What’s the over/under on how many days till the Padres cut Fick? Because, there’s no way in hell he makes the team, right?
Right?
March 20, 2008 at 9:15 am
I guess I should say something about Iguchi since he’s today’s topic. Let’s see… I hope Iguchi gets to have Headley as one of his teammates this season.
March 20, 2008 at 9:17 am
#4: Hooray, somebody loves Tadahito.
And Headley…
March 20, 2008 at 9:23 am
4 & 5: I liked him from the first quotes he delivered about why he wanted to play at Petco.
That, and he is way better than our 2B was last year.
Slightly OT, anybody know what’s going to happen to Barfield? He lost his job in Cleveland, so it will be interesting to see what they do with him. I could see the Orioles trading a low-level OF to Clevland to get him since they may need a 2B once Roberts is dealt.
March 20, 2008 at 9:24 am
What’s not to love about Tadahito? Isn’t he the only Japanese second baseman in MLB without an anal fissure? You gotta love that.
Ick! I just grossed myself out.
March 20, 2008 at 9:29 am
Been said before I’m sure, but gotta love the way Aki talks up SD to his countrymen. KT should be giving him a commission for helping us sign Japanese players.
March 20, 2008 at 9:31 am
7: Reminds me of the Office.
Dwight: Who wrote this, this hysterical one … anal fissures.
Kevin: That’s a real thing.
Dwight: Yeah, but no one here has it.
Kevin: Someone has it.
8: If only it had worked with FDome.
March 20, 2008 at 9:35 am
I hope I’m wrong, but I smell Marcus Giles Syndrome with Tadahito. I am not optimistic; his numbers are pretty close to Marcus’ in the year before he showed up, although they are definitely different players…
Also, Troy Renck of the Denver Post had a quick article up about the Pads this morning…not a whole lot of substance, but know thy enemy:
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_8631557
March 20, 2008 at 9:36 am
Tadahito is a solid, but unspectacular player. Which feeds back to the attendance subject from the other day. The Padres believe that a club filled with solid players is the best approach. Where casual fans want a superstar and are less concerned with the surrounding talent.
March 20, 2008 at 9:59 am
Great column by Padres non-prospect Dirk Hayhurst in Baseball America today:
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....65760.html
It’s about San Antonio winning the Texas League championship last season.
March 20, 2008 at 10:11 am
12: Hayhurst may not make it as a ballplayer, but he is a first class writer.
March 20, 2008 at 10:14 am
11:
I hope that the fans aren’t expecting a superstar at 2B since there is only one in the whole major leagues, Chase Utley. Since he just signed a 7 year, $85m contract before last season, it might be awhile before he’s on the market.
I’m not sure that the Padres philosophy is that they want solid but unspectacular players. I think it’s more that they just aren’t going to overpay for past their prime batters (although they will for pitchers). After the Phil Nevin, Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko extensions, you could see why they would do this.
March 20, 2008 at 10:47 am
Interesting article on Webb and Peavy: http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....p;c_id=mlb
March 20, 2008 at 10:47 am
14: Agreeded on the Padres philosophy, my lack of clairty is just another example, of how I cannot write at the level of Mr. Hayhurst.
March 20, 2008 at 10:49 am
Cincinati has a surplus of outfielders and is looking for a catcher. What do you guys think about keeping Fick as a back-up catcher and trading Baret for Freel.
March 20, 2008 at 10:54 am
#17: Alderson was asked about the Cincinnati outfield situation yesterday and the possibility of trading Barrett. He said having 2 catchers, Bard and Barrett, is not having a surplus — it’s a necessity over 162 games. Fick’s name didn’t come up. My impression was they’re happy to keep the guys they’ve got, at least at this point.
March 20, 2008 at 11:03 am
17 & 18: I think having Bard and Barrett could be a really great strength for us as well. I don’t know much about Freel, but I have heard people suggest that he is over-matched as a CF. Is there any truth to this?
March 20, 2008 at 11:05 am
Nomar is hurt now and is going to need surgery on his wrist. I would hate to help out the dodgers but what if you we trade Headley for Ethier, or Kemp stright up?
March 20, 2008 at 11:05 am
18: Alderson’s words say one thing, Fick’s presence in camp says another. I cannot come up with another good reason, that he has avoided a visit from The Turk.
March 20, 2008 at 11:26 am
20 - Only if Ethier or Kemp become brilliant defensive centerfielders that can throw at least 150 innings of 101 ERA+ ball in the back of the rotation.
March 20, 2008 at 11:27 am
And I would also like a pony.
March 20, 2008 at 11:29 am
12 … THANKS for the link, Schlom … I *love* Dirk’s vision … and, obviously, his ability to transform what he sees and feels into words …
March 20, 2008 at 11:33 am
Agree having two catchers is a necessity, and Fick is not a catcher. I’d be more than happy to trade Barrett if the Padres feel one of their minor league guys is ready to be the backup though.
I’d trade Headley for either one of those dodger OF straight up. Unfortunately I don’t think an inter-division trade like that is going to happen even with Colleti in charge.
March 20, 2008 at 11:39 am
I don’t see how Fick can possibly make the team. He’s left-handed and his primary position is 1B so he’s already behind Tony Clark who’s about the same (although he’s a switch-hitter, he much better hitting left-handed). The only way they would carry him is if they wanted have 3 catchers, but since they only have 5 bench spots, I don’t know how that’s possible.
I don’t think the Dodgers are looking for a long-term solution as they have Andy LaRoche. So they wouldn’t trade for Chase Headley.
March 20, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Bard, Barret or Fick - Does it really matter?
I would like to see us get a catcher that can throw. Everyone in the league was running on us last year and I think the problem is going to grow this year.
March 20, 2008 at 12:51 pm
27:It’s not so much not being able to throw runners out but being able to keep runners from getting a good jump seems to be the problem.
I think we all can agree we are still not to crazy about the outfield, I just don’t want to see this pitching staff suffer because of lack of defense and production from the outfield.
March 20, 2008 at 12:57 pm
27: We didn’t throw out anybody last year. We won 89 games. If we’d had Brian Schneider throwing out 28% we’d have probably won 83 games.
Bard has been better at throwing in the past. 18% as recently as 2006, better than The Guru Brad Ausmus.
March 20, 2008 at 12:59 pm
28: To be fair, the pitching staff probably wasn’t as good as many people think it was the last 2 years because we had really good OF defense.
A healthy CF who wasn’t years past his defensive prime would be very welcome, you’re right there.
March 20, 2008 at 1:00 pm
#29: Yep, Bard threw out 37% from 2002 to 2005 (i.e., before he came to the Padres). It’s not all on him.
March 20, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Bard could throw out runners when he was in Cleveland — he threw out 37% from 2002 to 2005 (36 of 97) — so it’s not that he can’t throw, it’s that the Padre pitchers don’t bother to hold on runners. It seems like that’s the correct strategy since stolen bases hasn’t really hurt them. It’s interesting that Bard’s CS% has cratered since 2006 when he went to Boston then San Diego, 37% before to 11%.
Barrett was never as good with Chicago or Montreal as Bard but his CS% went down with San Diego as well, 20% the past three season with the Cubs, 15% with the Padres.
So it seems kind of foolish and misguided to blame it all on Bard when it’s really the pitchers fault. And it might not even really matter.
March 20, 2008 at 1:04 pm
My work was a little slow there since I’m trying to do both the math and watch the basketball games….although for some reason they are showing the end of a game that ended a few hours ago (stupid CBS).
March 20, 2008 at 1:16 pm
I have missed me some Ducksnorts…
Hit up ST this last weekend. If the Split Squad was any indication, we may be in for a long year…wait, what am I saying? It was a split squad. You can’t really get any kind of read, right?
Please reasure me that this team is going to compete with the Powerless Dodgers and D-Backs for the title (Rockies SP is a mess and they were not that great to begin with)…
Eh, it will be fun…and I love me some Taguchi!!
March 20, 2008 at 1:17 pm
What do you guys think about John Patterson being released by the Nats? Should the Padres look at signing him?
March 20, 2008 at 1:20 pm
35: Absolutely, if he’ll take a minor league deal. Or whatever you call a deal that puts him on the 40 man but allows us to put him in Portland for some time.
March 20, 2008 at 1:22 pm
#35: WTF? I think that’s why the Nats are the Nats. Who knows, he could be the new Tim Redding, but it’s not a bad gamble at all.
March 20, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Now that I have read through the posts…some quick thoughts…
My buddies and I had a very long discussion about Fick…all agree that there is no frigg’n way he makes this team, he does not fit, he is not good…but, and it is a big BUT…there is some reason the Pads signed him and there are a lot of politics in some of these bench spots, so there could be a concivable way he stays on the roster…ick.
Bard and Barrett are a good mix for us…the defense is suspect, but the offensive output should more than make up for it.
It is not beyond the scope of thought that Barrett gets moved in a deal for an OF…
Re: 26…you are exactly correct.
March 20, 2008 at 1:28 pm
35: Another former lively arm to add to the stable of formerly injured ML pitchers? I think the Padres already have too many of those. Plus, if the Nats don’t have a place for him (could be he chose not to go to the minors?), I doubt the Padres can’t find another arm in the system currently that will be just as good.
30: Yup, second that. I really hope Jody Gerut will be healthy as he was a decent player then. I have a feeling that our OF this season is going to be quite different than what we all think it’s going to be as early as April 15.
Love Iguchi. Thanks Aki. He should get a bonus for referral. I’ll chip in with some fish tacos. Who’s with me? GY, how about a take Akinori Otsuka out to dinner night as a Ducksnort event of the year?
March 20, 2008 at 1:30 pm
36: Do the Padres have any spot on the 40 roster?
March 20, 2008 at 1:35 pm
40: I seem to remember they made some room when they outrighted Gardner back to the Yankees. I could be wrong…
March 20, 2008 at 1:38 pm
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
This says we currently have 42 guys in camp, 35 of which are on the 40-man roster and 7 who are non-roster invitees.
Also, there’s this: http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....sp?c_id=sd
If I didn’t mis-count, I have us at 39.
March 20, 2008 at 1:48 pm
I fail to understand why they are even bothering with Jody Gerut. His only good season was 5 years ago! And it’s not like that season was that good, it was decent but nothing special. Again, if a team was hoping for contributions from Jody Gerut (191 major league plate appearances since 2005) and Shawn Estes (blech), you’d think that we’d be talking about the Pirates or Royals not the Padres. In fact, the Pirates tried to make it work with Gerut and even they got rid of him.
I’d take a shot at Patterson since he was really good in 2005. Plus, it would probably be a minor league deal and if he doesn’t pan out, who cares?
March 20, 2008 at 1:49 pm
As someone who has to read Nationals articles every day, I thought they needed any rotation candidate they can muster. But Patterson was bad in spring training and has been injured and pitched a combined 72 innings the past two seasons.
No starter won more than seven games last season for the Nationals (a record, I think), and Odalis Perez is a candidate to start Opening Night this season.
March 20, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Yep, the Padres have 35 on the active roster, including 18 pitchers.
March 20, 2008 at 2:02 pm
43 … Gerut has not been healthy and now seems healthy … he had very good production in winter ball … i saw him play several times in Peoria and he looked very good at the plate and in the field … he’s on the verge of making the team … that’s seems very much worth the bother!
March 20, 2008 at 2:02 pm
43: Gerut’s put up pretty good numbers in Winterball and ST. Granted, it’s not MLB. Still, the guy can hit and play defense. His best year was a while ago, but he’s had pretty bad knee injuries since then. He finally appears to be healthy.
As an organiation, we sure seem to have a tough time developing OF. We’re OK with pitchers and IF, but I cannot think of an OF proposect we’ve developed in some time (hopefully Headley becomes one). Given this, I’m not surprised they’re trying a “bargain” approach to the OF. Gerut appears to be healthy and ready to play. He’s also a pretty intelligent guy, so I’ll be pulling for him.
March 20, 2008 at 2:06 pm
39: They have room, and they could make more if they needed to. Rodriguez and Myrow don’t need to be on the 40 man. The only rehabbing arm they have with comparable liveliness and any experience in the majors is Prior.
43: Gerut had a lot of talent before he got hurt. If it’s still there, which is what you pay scouts for when there’s no recent track record, what’s the problem? They’ll have Headley ready to replace him if he stumbles.
44: Yeah, he’s been bad, but he was only going to cost 850K and Washington wasn’t going anywhere, anyway. I’d bring him in and maybe let him work his way back as a reliever. A lack of SP depth has hurt us several years running.
March 20, 2008 at 2:09 pm
I would bring Patterson in, too. If the Jim Bowden and the Nationals made a decision, I’m inclined to believe it’s a bad one.
March 20, 2008 at 2:11 pm
49: Bowden’s a zero-sum GM. It’s either terrific moves (the Kearns trade) or terrible decisions (naw, I’ll hold onto Soriano, thanks). There seems to be no in-between.
March 20, 2008 at 2:21 pm
It seems he’s more bad than good, but I really have no idea. He’s getting a free pass in the District because everyone knows they are in rebuilding mode, and Acta helped them over-achieve last season. And woo-hoo, a shiny new stadium, with about five parking spaces.
But about half of their roster will again look like a minor league one.
March 20, 2008 at 2:32 pm
If Gerut had talent wouldn’t his minor league numbers look better?
http://minors.baseball-referen.....i?pid=5395
Sure he took some walks in Double A but he didn’t have any power and wasn’t really that young. Outside of 2003 his numbers have been average at best. With that track record, his 2003 seems like a fluke more then anything else. Again, we’re not the Pirates. He might be better then McAnulty defensively but that’s not saying much.
I guess it could be worse, we could have signed Juan Pierre or Gary Matthews Jr. to 5 year, $10m plus deals!
March 20, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Of course, as Headley as been down long enough to keep him from getting Super Two arbitration rights he’ll be the LF so it only matters for a few months anyway. I’m not sure that either McAnulty or Gerut really has any trade value so why bother showcasing them for a trade? I guess is that the hope is that one of them gets really hot and they are able to unload them to a team for a prospect.
March 20, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Bad typing skills above…I meant to say:
“As soon as Headley has been down long enough….”
March 20, 2008 at 2:52 pm
52: Well, let’s look at those. A career minor league OBP of 387 is awfully good, especially where he played. Headley, for comparison’s sake, has played in much better hitter’s leagues.
He wasn’t old for a level before he got hurt, and after he came back from that 2001 injury he still wasn’t that old. Headley was older than him in High A and his first go at AA.
I don’t think anybody is saying Gerut will be a great hitter, but he could be a good one.
March 20, 2008 at 2:55 pm
47: Didn’t Gary Mathews Jr come up from the Padres organization?
March 20, 2008 at 2:58 pm
52 … thanks for the link to Gerut’s minor league #s … the first thing I notice is the .387 OBP … and then the sub-1 K/BB ratio … looks like a hitter to me.
53/54 … I think you are right on with the Padres keeping an eye on Headley’s service time clock … pushing his arbitration eligibility out a year is pretty valuable … especially if/when you think that Gerut and/or McAnulty can provide the same production to start this season …
March 20, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Re: 56…yes
March 20, 2008 at 3:01 pm
True enough but he’s never had a year like Headley had last season. There are some decent season’s in there but nothing really jumps out at you. Plus with his injury track record (he’s missed 3 full seasons since he turned pro in 1999, that’s 33%), why bother. Again, if Pirates castoffs are playing for you, that’s not a good sign.
Someone above talked about trading Headley for Ethier or Kemp. This is who the Padres should really be targeting.
http://www.baseball-reference......ha01.shtml
He’s about to become really expensive and the Marlins only want players without any service time. If that means the Padres have to keep Headley in the minors the whole season, so be it (keep him at 3B so they have an excuse not to bring him up). Would Headley, Matt Latos and another prospect be enough? That would give the Padres the chance to trade Greene if they wanted, or if Ramirez’s defense is as bad as they say, move him to CF and leave Antonelli at 2B.
March 20, 2008 at 3:01 pm
#56: Yep. Here’s my report on him and fellow outfield prospect Mike Darr from ‘98:
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/199.....thews.html
Ah, I feel very old.
March 20, 2008 at 3:05 pm
56: I apologize for forgetting Matthews. Great point.
March 20, 2008 at 3:10 pm
57: Free P-Mac.
re: Patterson, you are all right, a minor league deal wouldn’t hurt. I just don’t want a ML roster for him which I thought might be the reason the Nationals cut him.
March 20, 2008 at 3:12 pm
59: Dream on. He’ll move to the OF if his glove is not getting better at SS.
March 20, 2008 at 3:19 pm
59: No, he never had a full season like Headley’s 2007. But that’s because the Indians promoted him to the majors when he was partway there. if we’re going that route, Headley’s never done anything in the majors and has no time above AA.
Young was castoff from 3 teams before we got him. Where a player came from has zero real bearing on how good he good be. Gerut might do nothing for us, he might be just another guy who had a great winter season in a foreign land, but he could be a pretty good hitter, too.
I don’t see the Padres signing Ramirez or trading what it would take to get him.
March 20, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Pads also developed Jason Bay and X-Nady.
I would be happy with Mathews in CF, Bay in LF and Nady in RF
March 20, 2008 at 3:20 pm
I don’t see Ramirez to stick with the Padres since his glove is quite bad. Playing at Petco will require defenses. Yes, he’s a heck of a hitter but knowing the Marlins, the price is going to be astronomical. Look at how Cabrera was traded. Probably not a price that the Padres can meet by will or means.
March 20, 2008 at 3:26 pm
65: Bay was really “developed” elsewhere, we were just smart enough to grab him. And then not-smart enough to give the Pirates Nady instead of him.
Nady is an average hitter who would be brutal in Petco’s RF. I know GY had a thing for him in the past, but he’s up over 1600 at-bats now, still poor at controlling the strike zone, hitting with only moderate power.
March 20, 2008 at 3:30 pm
#67: Bay also fits your description of CY in #64. The Expos and Mets apparently had no use for him.
Nady is a marginally useful big leaguer who should have been much more.
March 20, 2008 at 3:34 pm
can anybody come up with a better outfield made up of active ex-padres that where home grown or played in the minors system?
March 20, 2008 at 3:39 pm
68: I don’t know how much you can teach plate discipline. Probably depends on the player. Without any empirical evidence at all, Nady struck me as a guy who had always been able to hit whatever came his way, including pitches out of the zone, until he got to AAA.
Remember when Shea Hillenbrand talked about how no one ever stressed taking pitches to him in the minors, but now that he understood the value, he’d try to do it? His walk rate never changed.
Nady was slightly better than average last year, to give him due credit.
March 20, 2008 at 3:43 pm
69: No, and that’s disheartening. But I wouldn’t be any happier with Nady/Matthews/Bay (especially at Matthews cost) than I am with Giles/Edmonds/The Plethora.
March 20, 2008 at 3:44 pm
I don’t think the price for Miguel Cabrera was astronomical. Maybin is a stud but Miller is certainly no can’t miss pitcher . It’s too bad the Padres didn’t draft Porcello as him, Headley and Latos would surely be enough. As far as his fielding goes, he’s no worse then Derek Jeter so that’s probably not a worry although if I traded for him I’d make him into a CF.
I guess the question would be whether I’d trade Headley, Antonelli and Latos for Ramirez. Looking at the Padres record of developing young players I’d probably do it.
Personally, I think there’s a huge difference between being waived and being traded. Young was traded from the Pirates, Expos and Rangers (notice something in common with those teams) but at least they got something they though was valuable back. The Pirates (the poorest run organization maybe in all sports) didn’t even think Gerut was worth anything. Now maybe they were wrong, that’s certainly possible, but are there any veteran hitters (not minor league or Rule V guys) that have been cut and then been successful with other teams?
March 20, 2008 at 3:48 pm
#72: Maybe the Pirates were wrong? You mean, the poorest run organization in all sports? Please, tell me it ain’t so.
March 20, 2008 at 3:50 pm
72: Wait, so now Gerut is a “veteran?” He’s had two season’s worth of at-bats in the majors.
There have been many players who have been waived and then succeeded. Scotty Linebrink was one. Some guy you may have heard of, David Ortiz, is another. There have been players who were considered minor throw ins to deals, like Liriano, who blossomed. That’s why what a team may have thought of a player is less important than almost anything else. I mean, turn that around. The Padres thought enough of Sledge to get him in trade, and he was bad. If a team giving up on a player counts against him, another team picking him up should be seen as a positive. That’s why I prefer to toss that stuff out.
March 20, 2008 at 3:52 pm
73: Yeah, any team that pays full price for Matt Morris and drafts a college reliever with the 4th overall pick, that’s who I use as a measuring stick for determining player value.
March 20, 2008 at 3:52 pm
I hate to bring up the Rick Porcello/Nick Schmidt draft mess again but it just shows what a huge, huge, huge error it was to pass on him. His bonus was just over $2m more then Schmidt’s, although he signed a major league contract so that would cost a lot more over the short-term. However if they traded (much like the Tigers did with Andrew Miller) they wouldn’t have to pay it. Would you rather have $2m, Headley, Latos and Schmidt or Hanley Ramirez?
March 20, 2008 at 3:56 pm
76: Never bothers me to discuss the draft. But I don’t see any way this organization makes that trade, not now or in the near-future. Too risky for them. I don’t think they would have made the Cabrera / Willis trade if the parts were available.
March 20, 2008 at 3:59 pm
72: I thought a lot of people were very high on Miller. Maybe I missed something there.
No way do I trade Headley/Antonelli/Latos for Ramirez. He’ll be way too pricey for us to keep him and his defense is atrocious. Comparing him Derek Jeter is probably over-stating his defense, and I think Jeter’s one of the worst out there.
Wouldn’t rule V guys essentially count as “veteran guys who were successful on other teams”? After all, these are guys that have been around the system for a while and haven’t impressed their teams enough to protect them. Dan Uggla (while atrocious defensively) is a fantastic example of this kind of player.
March 20, 2008 at 4:01 pm
76: Isn’t that kind of a false choice? There’s no guarantee that such a trade would go down.
Also, I’d take our players and the money. I trust our talent evaluators for a reason. Headley and Antonelli are gonna be studs when they get their shot. Who knows what Latos will do? Schmidt may be a useful part when ready.
March 20, 2008 at 4:05 pm
I wasn’t talking about relievers as I know there are plenty of them out there who have been cut multiple times before they made it good.
Ortiz is a special case since he wasn’t offered a contract by the Twins because they were too cheap and stupid to figure out he was good (his 2002 season was as good as Gerut’s rookie season but at 26 he was in his sixth major league season, not second).
I guess my point is that contending teams shouldn’t rely on non-roster players to be contributors. Although I guess that Gerut isn’t really going to be a contributor unless the team suffers multiple injuries in the outfield and if that happens, the Padres aren’t going to be contenders.
March 20, 2008 at 4:18 pm
I’ll try to address a couple of comments to my above posts:
Why would you trust the Padres talent evaluators or coaches? There’s Peavy and Khalil but that’s it. The main reason the Padres have been so crappy through the years is that they’ve been completely unable to draft and develop their own talent. Now that might change but there is certainly no guarantees.
People are saying that the Padres wouldn’t trade for Ramirez because they won’t sign him for big money. If that’s the case, then this franchise is in serious trouble. Unless Kevin Towers can continue to rip off other teams in trades (and I would doubt that will keep happening) the Padres have no hope to compete. You have to pay good player big money. If they are only going to pay Jake Peavy and let everyone else walk, again, they aren’t going to compete. They wasted the most valuable pick in the draft in 2004 and might have wasted another one last season. Those are the people that are supposed to inspire us with confidence?
March 20, 2008 at 4:36 pm
#81: If I didn’t trust the Padres talent evaluators or coaches, I’d probably just give up all hope and not think about the possibility of acquiring a player like Hanley Ramirez. Presumably our evaluators would have trouble recognizing his value.
Why do you doubt that Towers will continue to be successful in making trades? He’s been doing it for 12+ years now. What signs point to his demise in that area?
The team learned from its mistakes in 2004, which is all anyone can ask at this point. As for Porcello, we’re not the only team that passed on him.
March 20, 2008 at 4:39 pm
What’s incredibly frustrating is that the Padres are a good team that could be much better. They’ve won the division 2 of the 3 previous years and with some better luck last season they’d be on a run of three straight. But they are going into this season with some huge potential holes and haven’t really addressed them.
I’ve always contended that there is no reason that the Padres couldn’t be like the Tigers. Strangely, the Tigers also threw their top pick away in 2003 (they took Kyle Sleeth 3rd, the Padres took Stauffer 4th). That season, the Tigers won 43 games while the Padres won 64. Then in 2004, the Padres took Matt Bush and the Tigers took Justin Verlander. Imagine how different those franchises would look if the picks were swapped.
March 20, 2008 at 4:41 pm
re: Porcello/Schmidt, let’s see in a few years, OK?
I still think the Padres could have had Michael Main instead of Schmidt but what do I know?
81: The Padres wouldn’t trade for Ramirez because there is no players to trade him for and his value is not as high with this organization as the Marlins are thinking. Where do you get the big money? Jake Peavy is signed so is El Hombre and the big tall guy. It’s all about what the team is willing to spend.
You value Ramirez a lot higher than others. I wouldn’t trade Headley and Latos for him. I don’t think Ramirez is going to be the next ARod. Those type of players are rare.
For now, let’s see how the plethora are going to do. Getting a single player is not going to change the lot of this team. The Padres still needs more pitching to start in #4-#7 for the season.
March 20, 2008 at 4:46 pm
As for Porcello, we’re not the only team that passed on him.
What does that have to do with anything? Just because the other teams were stupid does that mean the Padres have to be as well? As I pointed out the Padres, despite wasting the amateur draft multiple times, spending in the bottom 3rd of all teams in baseball are still very successful. It seems that since they’ve been successful being conservative, they figure that it’s good enough. If the Padres would have taken Jared Weaver (or Verlander) instead of Matt Bush they would have won the division last year, would probably be favorites this season and might have won a playoff series over teh past three seasons. Was going conservative a good option there? Absolutely not. To save $5m they cost themselves many times that.
If you make a lot of trades, you will occasionally get trade like the CY, AGon trade for Aki and Eaton, while I’m sure you will get dogs like Giles for Bay and Oliver Perez. I just don’t think that it can continue.
March 20, 2008 at 4:47 pm
83: Let’s stop with this right now. Batt Mush was a consensus Top 10 and Verlander wasn’t the top pitching in that draft. Remember that everybody was talking Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver, Jeff Niemann.
One can go back to every draft of every team and finds mistakes after mistakes. My guess is that the Padres are not that much off from the other teams, about average in their successes and failures. That’s not to say that this organization can’t do better.
March 20, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Didi, you might want to check his stats again (look at the numbers and his age again). He’s 23 and he might have been the best player in the NL last season (certainly David Wright, Pujols, Fielder, Cabrera, Utley also have arguments). Over the next 5 years, only Wright is likely to be better then him (taking account hitting, fielding, speed, etc.). You do know that Ramirez is only 5 month older then Headley, right? Headley’s numbers in Double A weren’t much better then Ramirez’s in the majors.
The question is whether the Padres can be successful if they don’t spend any money on players (and continue to draft the way they have). The A’s had a nice run but they are in massive rebuilding mode this season and maybe for the next few. Do we want the Padres to be on a boom or bust cycle like them?
March 20, 2008 at 4:56 pm
85: If you believe the propaganda (;-)) Geoff publishes in the DS annual, the Bay-Perez/Giles trade wasn’t that bad. Bay’s dropped off badly the past few seasons and Perez still has uber control issues.
I think the Padres are trying to do the right thing by baseball with the draft. They are trying to respect slotting rules while still getting talent they feel is worth tabbing.
March 20, 2008 at 4:58 pm
87: Most of baseball, outside of the elite money teams that can over-spend to compensate, experience baseball ina boom-bust cycle. Part of the beauty of the game is that it’s cyclical. Sometimes you’re up, sometimes you’re down.
March 20, 2008 at 5:00 pm
86: Well, the Tigers certainly thought he was the top pitcher in the draft (and they were right!) Maybe the Padres should hire their scouting director away. The consensus #1 pick that year was Jared Weaver, wouldn’t that look better in our rotation then Justin Germano?
http://www.baseball-reference......ype=junreg
Look at the teams that blew the #1 pick, do we want the Padres lumped in with those teams?
March 20, 2008 at 5:01 pm
84: There are multiple ways a player can be valuable to your team, though, and what they’re doing professionally in a few years is only one of them. The moment Porcello signed, he was worth 2x or more of Schmidt in a trade, even if the latter had been healthy. It lets you trade players who would otherwise rank higher in your system.
Ramirez is a terrific player and I’d move Headley/Latos for him in a heartbeat, if there was any chance we could sign him. There’s a good chance he’s a better hitter now than Headley will be. Younger, better athlete, faster. Not a guarantee, but a good chance, and he’d be a better 3b than Kouzmanoff. Then you move Kouz.
85: The Giles trade wasn’t great, but when you get 145, 128, and 147 OPS seasons out of the guy you acquired, it’s not a dog.
86: Disagree. Verlander was considered a top arm, but didn’t have a great junior year and had one of his worst games in front of the Padre scouting staff. The “consensus top 10″ doesn’t fly, either. There’s no consensus, BA ranked him highly but the Padres weren’t even thinking about him until Moores changed the budget. An atrocious, panic-driven decision all around.
March 20, 2008 at 5:08 pm
88: Whoa. Bay dropped badly in 2007. He beat Giles in rate production from 2004 to 2006, although it was a near-thing the first two years. OG was healthier in 2004, which at least balances that year out. But Bay has not faded badly the past few seasons. He’s had one bad year, last year.
The “right thing by baseball?” How about doing “the right thing by the Padres?” You are never, ever going to build the best organization possible if you choose to limit yourself in ways that other teams do not.
I love the optimism on Headley, Antonelli, and other recent draft picks, but look at GY’s reports on Darr/Matthews, or the reports on almost anyone from our (or most) systems from the last 10 years. You’ll find 20 Chase Headleys and Matt Antonellis who didn’t pan out. That doesn’t mean our boys won’t, but let’s not say the system is saved quite yet.
March 20, 2008 at 5:11 pm
#85: The relevance of my comment regarding Porcello is that if you’re going to hold the Padres accountable for passing on him, then you’ve got to hold most other clubs accountable for doing the same. This isn’t the Padres’ mistake, it’s everyone’s mistake.
As for KT’s trades, you say, “I just don’t think that it can continue.” What is the basis for your belief? Convince me that after 12+ years of making mostly good trades, he’s going to stop now.
March 20, 2008 at 5:15 pm
#92: Right, the system definitely is not “saved,” but it’s in a lot better shape than it was 3-4 years ago. I think we’re all agreed that a more aggressive strategy is needed in the draft. Hopefully we’ll see that happen.
March 20, 2008 at 6:33 pm
93: That’s an easy one, Geoff. No GM known by his initials, as KT is, has ever continued to make mostly positive trades beyond his 12th year. I thought this was common knowledge.