Winning Is Better Than Knitting

by Geoff Young on May 01, 2008 (60) Comments

Winning is so much more fun than losing, n’est ce pas? Every starter except Jim Edmonds and Chris Young collected at least one hit on Wednesday in the Padres’ 4-2 victory over Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park.

Tadahito Iguchi broke out of a season-long slump with four hits, while Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff each homered. (The Padres, who allegedly can’t hit, have outhomered the Phillies, 4-1, in the first two games of the series.)

Young looked solid for the most part. He gave up a two-run bomb to Chase Utley in the first, but if Utley isn’t the hottest hitter on the planet right now, then he’s pretty darned close.

(And yeah, in hindsight, snagging Utley instead of Mark Phillips at #8 back in 2000 would have been a good idea. Then again, except for Florida [Gonzalez] and Tampa Bay [Rocco Baldelli], everyone who picked ahead of the Phillies blew it big time.)

Meanwhile, back at the game, relievers Joe Thatcher and Heath Bell were effective, if a bit inefficient. Between the two, they needed 49 pitches to make it through the seventh and eighth innings, although some of that was because plate umpire Mike Estabrook wouldn’t call a strike at the knees to Ryan Howard and first-base umpire Dan Iassogna misunderstood the concept of checking one’s swing.

As for the ninth, those who would write off Trevor Hoffman will need to wait another day. He got Pat Burrell to ground weakly to Kouz to start the inning, then allowed a single back up the middle to Geoff Jenkins. The Jenkins hit came on an 0-2 pitch, which means that Hoffman was being sloppy or aggressive depending on the point you’re trying to prove.

Hoffman then struck out pinch-hitter Greg Dobbs on a nasty change-up. Chris Coste followed with a popup behind the plate to end the game. For those interested, and to hammer home the point about small sample sizes, here is how Hoffman’s season breaks down so far:

  G IP ERA BA OBP SLG
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball Reference.
first 5 5 4.2 11.57 .333 .400 .476
second 5 5 5 1.80 .211 .211 .421

This doesn’t get told, of course, because it doesn’t fit with the storyline that Hoffman is done. Also, it’s just as ridiculous to draw conclusions from his last five games as it was to do the same from his previous five.

Whatever. People believe what they believe, and in my experience there isn’t much you can do about that.

Anyway, the important thing is that the Padres won, and that Kouz and Iguchi finally stopped sucking (kinda like Scott Hairston did the night before). If Bard and Khalil Greene can do the same (and their track record suggests they can), the club will be in good shape.

I continue to maintain that this is a good team playing bad baseball, not a bad baseball team. If the hitters regress to career norms and the pitchers start performing away from Petco Park (5.62 ERA so far this year, vs 4.46 in ’07), results will follow. Enough to catch Arizona? Maybe, maybe not. All I can say is that anyone who gives up with 134 games remaining on the schedule probably should follow a different sport.

Or take up knitting…

Padres Farm Report (1 May 08)

by Geoff Young on May 01, 2008 (5) Comments

Triple-A — Oklahoma 9, Portland 8

Matt Antonelli: 0-for-5, BB
Jody Gerut (DH): 2-for-5, HR
Chase Headley: 3-for-5, 2 2B
Brian Myrow: 2-for-4, BB
Edgar Gonzalez (RF): 0-for-5
Chip Ambres (CF): 1-for-1, 3 BB
Craig Stansberry: 0-for-4
Will Venable (PH): 1-for-1
Wade LeBlanc: 3 IP, 10 H, 8 R, 2 HR, 3 BB, 0 SO (87 pitches, 53 strikes)
Josh Banks: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 1 SO
Clay Hensley: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 2 SO
Adam Bass: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 2 SO

Antonelli and Stansberry are struggling… I get the impression that Gerut doesn’t want to stay in the minors… Miserable line for LeBlanc (Rain Delay informs us that he needed 41 pitches to make it through the first), but good to see Hensley out there again. First time he’s worked more than an inning this year. Baby steps… The Beavers drew 120 walks in 24 games in April, or 5 per game, tops in the Pacific Coast League.

More coverage at the Portland Oregonian.

Double-A — Frisco 6, San Antonio 4

Drew Macias: 0-for-4, BB
Chad Huffman: 0-for-4, BB
Kyle Blanks: 2-for-5
Craig Cooper: 4-for-4, BB
Jose Lobaton: 3-for-4, BB
Will Inman: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 5 SO, 2 HBP
Neil Jamison: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 1 SO

Inman carried a one-hit shutout into the seventh, when things sort of fell apart for him… The Missions drew 120 walks in 25 games, or 4.8 per game, most in the Texas League in April.

High-A — Lake Elsinore 8, Inland Empire 7

Javis Diaz: 1-for-5, 3B, E
Cedric Hunter (DH): 1-for-4, BB
Eric Sogard: 1-for-4, BB, E
Mitch Canham: 0-for-3, 2 BB, PB
Rayner Contreras: 0-for-0, 4 BB, SF
Corey Kluber: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 2 SO, WP
Ernesto Frieri: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 2 SO

Storm hitters finished April with 129 walks in 27 games, or 4.78 walks per game — you guessed it, tops in the California League.

Low-A — Fort Wayne 11, Kane County 5

Luis Durango: 0-for-4, SB
Yefri Carvajal: 0-for-2 (didn’t start)
Andrew Cumberland (SS): 1-for-6, SB
Kellen Kulbacki: 0-for-3, BB
Justin Baum: 3-for-5, 2 2B
Bradley Chalk: 1-for-3, 2 BB
Wynn Pelzer: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 4 SO, HBP
Robert Woodard: 3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 2 SO

Nine runs in the fourth helps… Kulbacki is scuffling big time… The Wizards drew 103 walks in 26 games in April, or 3.96 per game. That’s second only to West Michigan in the Midwest League. I think it’s safe to say the Padres are emphasizing plate discipline among their minor-league hitters.

IGD: Padres @ Phillies (30 Apr 08)

by Geoff Young on Apr 30, 2008 (88) Comments

Chris YoungPadres (10-17) @ Phillies (15-12)
Chris Young vs Jamie Moyer
4:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 185
MLB, B-R

Is it May yet?

Gee, I Still Don’t Understand Sample Size

by Geoff Young on Apr 30, 2008 (113) Comments

The Padres need to go out and get more hitters. I know this is true because I keep hearing it. I also know it’s a complete load of garbage. What they really need is for the hitters they already have to start performing up to their capabilities.

Padres Hitters: 2008, 2007, Career
    2008 2007 Career
  Age PA OPS+ PA OPS+ PA OPS+
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of April 29, 2008.
Josh Bard 30 95 54 443 107 1364 99
Adrian Gonzalez 26 116 126 720 125 1673 119
Tadahito Iguchi 33 116 64 533 92 1857 96
Kevin Kouzmanoff 26 123 64 534 109 718 98
Khalil Greene 28 116 57 659 100 2335 99
Scott Hairston 28 91 92 294 94 785 86
Jim Edmonds 38 77 36 411 88 7384 132
Brian Giles 37 114 116 552 109 7043 139
Paul McAnulty 27 62 98 43 49 149 77

The only guy who might be playing over his head is McAnulty. But we don’t really know because we’ve never gotten the opportunity to see what P-Mac is capable of doing at the big-league level over extended periods of time.

Gonzalez and Giles are about where we’d expect. Hairston’s numbers seem reasonable, although thanks to a lack of consistent playing time in the past, his abilities remain unclear.

The rest of these guys are badly underperforming. In Edmonds’ case, it very well could be because he’s finished, but we don’t have enough evidence just yet. Iguchi isn’t young, but he shouldn’t be in the decline phase of his career (although after the Marcus Giles Fiasco, one never knows).

That leaves Kouz and Khalil. The former has only one season under his belt, while the latter is known to be a streaky hitter. Both are in what should be their physical primes. If either of those guys finishes with numbers anywhere near where they’re at now, their careers are effectively over. If you believe they’re done, then I’m out of answers.

Sorry, just needed a reality check there. Now I can go back to laughing at the notion that acquiring Reggie Willits (not Reggie Jackson) or Nyjer Morgan (not Joe Morgan) will magically cure whatever may ail the Padres. Yes, I actually heard this suggested on talk radio Tuesday night. It makes about as much sense as believing that the Padres truly are this bad at hitting baseballs.

Padres Farm Report (30 Apr 08)

by Geoff Young on Apr 30, 2008 (14) Comments

Triple-A — Portland 5, Oklahoma 4

Matt Antonelli: 0-for-3, BB
Jody Gerut (CF/RF): 3-for-4
Chase Headley: 0-for-2 (pulled after three innings, no explanation given)
Chip Ambres (CF): 1-for-1, HR, BB (didn’t start)
Brian Myrow: 1-for-3, BB
Edgar Gonzalez (RF/LF): 2-for-4, BB
Will Venable (DH): 0-for-4
Nick Hundley: 1-for-3
Craig Stansberry: 0-for-3
Cesar Ramos: 3 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 SO (85 pitches, 44 strikes)
Dirk Hayhurst: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 3 SO

Ugly line from Ramos. Also, the Padres lost Oscar Robles on waivers to Philadelphia. Luis Rodriguez is on the disabled list, which means that Marshall “Not a Shortstop” McDougall got the start on Tuesday. Robles isn’t great, but he’s a passable big-league shortstop. Some teams might not be so cavalier about losing a guy like that… Hayhurst notched his first save of the year and is in danger of losing his “non-prospect” status. ;-)

Double-A — Frisco 11, San Antonio 9

Drew Macias: 2-for-2, 2B, 4 BB, SB
Chad Huffman: 1-for-5, BB
Kyle Blanks: 2-for-5, 2B, BB, E
Craig Cooper: 3-for-4, BB
Jose Lobaton: 0-for-5
Mike Ekstrom: 3 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 3 SO, WP

The Missions drew 11 walks and didn’t win. Yep, they must be a Padres farm club.

High-A — Lake Elsinore 4, Inland Empire 2

Cedric Hunter: 0-for-4, BB
Eric Sogard (DH): 1-for-4, 2B, BB
Rayner Contreras: 1-for-3, BB

Inland Empire. Why can’t they just call it San Bernardino like the rest of us do? Sogard hit another double. It’s gotten to the point where that’s no longer newsworthy. When in doubt, assume he hit one.

Low-A — Fort Wayne 2, Kane County 0 (1st game); Kane County 1, Fort Wayne 0 (2nd game)

Luis Durango: 3-for-6, 2B, 2 SB
Kellen Kulbacki: 0-for-5, BB
Justin Baum: 0-for-4 (didn’t start 2nd game)
Yefri Carvajal: 1-for-5
Andrew Cumberland (SS): 0-for-3
Felix Carrasco: 0-for-2
Geoff Vandel: 4.1 IP, 4, 0 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 4 SO, HBP
Mat Latos: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 0 SO

IGD: Padres @ Phillies (29 Apr 08)

by Geoff Young on Apr 29, 2008 (47) Comments

Greg MadduxPadres (10-16) @ Phillies (14-12)
Greg Maddux vs Cole Hamels
4:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 185
MLB, B-R

Last time Maddux faced the Phillies, he beat his old (and I do mean old) teammate, Jamie Moyer, 14-3 at Citizens Bank Park last August. Milton Bradley knocked two homers, drove in six, and told the fans in Philly, “I am that good.”

He didn’t stay in San Diego long, but Bradley is one of my all-time favorite Padres. I miss Jenga…

Series Preview: Tom Goyne Talks Phillies

by Geoff Young on Apr 29, 2008 (28) Comments

The Padres head to Philly for three starting Tuesday evening. Among other things, this means I got to pick the brains of Tom Goyne, proprietor of the estimable Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, about his team. (We did this last year, too, and had more fun than you can shake a ball, stick, or stuff at.) Without further ado, I turn the blog over to Mr. Goyne…

Ducksnorts: How many games do you see the Phillies winning this year, and will it be enough for a return trip to the post-season?

Goyne: Given that the Phils will be without Jimmy Rollins for almost all of April and into May, Brett Myers and Ryan Howard are off to poor starts, and the team is still above .500, I’d say they stand a decent chance of getting to 90 wins, assuming those pieces fall back into place. Early in the spring, if you had told me all of those things would go wrong and they’d still be above .500, I’d have thought you were crazy. As for the post-season, historically 90 wins gets you there, but time will tell this year.

Ducksnorts: Ryan Howard is doing a nice Russell Branyan impression. What’s up with that?

Goyne: It’s official. Ryan Howard is a slow starter. It happened last year, it happened this year, and he says his mother says it goes back to his school days. My guess is that he will finish with numbers that resemble last year’s quite a bit, but the fact of the matter is, he’s really a one-dimensional player. Granted, he’s excellent at that one dimension — power-hitting — but there are a lot of other holes in his game.

Ducksnorts: Brett Myers has served up a lot of homers in the early going, but his overall numbers are decent. How has the transition back to being a starter after closing games in ’07 gone so far?

Goyne: The word is that his fastball has no life and a look at the numbers at Fangraphs does indeed show he’s lost a couple of miles per hour. The numbers are also consistent with what we have been hearing, that he is relying too much on off-speed stuff and breaking balls because of his loss in velocity. Being a starter for most of his career, with the exception of last season, I wouldn’t have thought it would be a difficult transition, but apparently it is.

Ducksnorts: Speaking of Myers, Kyle Kendrick became a favorite of mine when I saw how he handled the spring training prank that had him being traded to Japan. Talk a little about Kendrick.

Goyne: He’s a good kid by all accounts and apparently a little gullible too. Last season he went from AA to a spot start in the bigs to one of the Phillies more consistent pitchers and make no mistake, they don’t win the NL East last year without him. It seemed like he was very comfortable in his skin, pitching to contact, and getting lots of groundball outs. This year, it seems as if he feels he has to pick out a new trick or two from his bag, he’s being too fine, and walking too many batters.

Ducksnorts: I recently finished reading Chris Coste’s book. In it, he mentions that Cole Hamels will buy him a sweet ride if Coste catches a Hamels no-no. How do you like Coste’s chances of receiving a new Escalade this season?

Goyne: It’s tough with Hamels. He strikes out so many batters that you think he’s a great candidate for a no-no, but because he strikes so many out, his pitch count gets a little high and he can’t go the distance. He’s oneheckuva pitcher, we haven’t seen anything like him around here since Schilling or Carlton.

Ducksnorts: Checking in on the ex-Padres, how are Adam Eaton and Shane Victorino looking?

Goyne: Eaton’s 2007 season was an unmitigated disaster. The only way you can put a good spin on it is that he didn’t get hit by a bus, which is probably saying something since there were probably more than a few bus drivers in Philly gunning for him. This season he has been adequate so far, which is all he really needs to be with the Phillies offense. As for the Flyin’ Hawaiian, he’s a great little player when healthy. He can cover a ton of ground in a heartbeat and has an absolute cannon for an arm. Under the tutelage of Davy Lopes, he’s become an exceptional basestealer as well.

* * *

Thanks again to Tom for chatting with us. Best of luck to the Phillies this year once the Padres leave town. :-)

Padres Farm Report (29 Apr 08)

by Geoff Young on Apr 29, 2008 (3) Comments

Triple-A — Portland 5, Oklahoma 4

Craig Stansberry: 0-for-2, 2 BB
Jody Gerut: 2-for-4, 2 HR
Chase Headley: 1-for-3, HR, BB
Brian Myrow: 2-for-4
Edgar Gonzalez (DH): 1-for-4
Nick Hundley: 0-for-3
Chip Ambres (CF): 1-for-3
Oscar Robles (SS): 0-for-2, BB
Shawn Estes: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 SO
Paul Abraham: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 4 SO
Adam Bass: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 1 SO
Jared Wells: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 2 SO (28 pitches, 15 strikes)

Nice game from Gerut. After a slow start, he’s playing well. Robles has been seeing most of the action at shortstop because Luis Rodriguez suffered a “right hook of hamate fracture” (it’s in the wrist) and has been placed on the disabled list. Outfielder Will Venable was reinstated from the DL to take Rodriguez’s place on the roster.

Double-A — Midland 12, San Antonio 3

Chad Huffman (DH): 0-for-3, BB
Drew Macias: 1-for-4
Jose Lobaton: 0-for-3, SF
Craig Cooper (1B): 2-for-4
Steve Garrison: 3 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 SO
Neil Jamison: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 3 SO

Rough night for Garrison. Finesse pitcher, bandbox ballpark… it happens. Utility infielder Ray Chang worked a scoreless eighth and struck out former Padres farmhand Todd Donovan to end the frame. (Amusingly, Donovan once was traded for Brett Dowdy, who started at third base for Portland San Antonio in this one but finished up at second, replacing Chang.)

High-A — Lancaster 8, Lake Elsinore 6

Javis Diaz: 1-for-5, SB
Cedric Hunter: 2-for-3, 2B, 2 BB
Eric Sogard: 1-for-5, 2B
Mitch Canham: 1-for-4
Rayner Contreras: 1-for-3, HBP, SB
Nathan Culp: 5 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 SO
Ernesto Frieri: 1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 SO

Another day, another double for Sogard.

Low-A

Fort Wayne at Kane County, postponed. Outfielder Danny Payne has been placed on the disabled list for undisclosed reasons.

Contest Winners

by Geoff Young on Apr 28, 2008 (23) Comments

When I reviewed MLB08: The Show in mid-April, I also held a contest to give away several copies of the game. I asked folks to “leave a suggestion in the comments on how to improve Ducksnorts” and said that I would pick four winners from those.

First off, thanks to everyone who entered. Your efforts help shape the way Ducksnorts will continue to evolve, and I can’t be grateful enough for that.

To the winners:

Let’s Chat

Brian would like to see greater interactivity:

I’d like to see more opportunities for interactive chatting on the blog. The traditional blog format is great, but sometimes it’s a little unwieldy to follow all the comments, especially if I come in late in the game. I live in Mexico and I don’t have perpetual access to internet, but I would definitely make the effort to sit in on a chat, maybe once a week, or once a month. I envision something like a “State of the Padres” conversation. This is a much more fluid format than the hundreds of comments that come after a provocative post.

I love this idea, but I’m not sure how to implement it just yet. Suffice to say, it’s on my radar. (If anyone has suggestions, please feel free to send ‘em my way.)

More Screen, Please

LynchMob offered several excellent suggestions; here’s my favorite among them:

Widen the page… I gotta believe 99% of us see blue bars on the right 1″ and left 1″ of the web page

I’m happy to say that I’ve implemented this one… with a twist. During testing, a few folks expressed a preference for the narrower version, so I found a technical solution that allows people to choose which format they like best. I’ve added a menu item up at the top (Narrow/Wide) that toggles between the two. Go nuts.

Help Me Find Stuff

Coronado Mike chimed in with some terrific ideas as well:

Advanced search. Possibly search by poster or content within posts. I hate having to go through 5 or 6 different blogs to find one post.

During IGDs, can we have a running score/situation mod? Not all of us are watching the game during IGDs and it would be great to know what is going on.

Add and “interview with a Padre” post…maybe once or twice a month, post up an interview with one of the players/front office people.

The first two are technical issues, and they’re on my to-do list. The third one is an access issue, and I’m not sure how possible it will be to implement such a feature. It’s a great idea, though, so I’ll see what I can do on that front as well.

Show Yourself

krs1 wanted to place faces with names:

I personally think it would be cool to have some kind of avatar thing set up. Something that maybe displayed out name location and maybe a picture or “Ducksnorter Since ?” type of thing.

Thankfully this one was real easy to do. And judging from the many avatars I see floating around the comments, it’s pretty popular. Folks like to see who they’re talking to; who knew?

If you haven’t gotten yourself one yet and you’d like to, go to Gravatar and get hooked up. It’s free.

Congrats to Brian, LynchMob, Coronado Mike, and krs1. I’ll be in touch so that I can get your game to you. Thanks again to Sony for providing the goods and to all who entered the contest for helping to improve this little thing we call Ducksnorts.

One Way Teams Can Connect with Fans

by Geoff Young on Apr 28, 2008 (57) Comments

In the middle of April, something pretty cool happened about 100 miles north of San Diego: The Dodgers invited several people who blog about the team to hang out in a luxury suite with staffers during a game. Reaching out to folks who talk about them constantly — almost obsessively — in a public forum was a shrewd move on the part of the Dodgers.

Geoff @ StatSpeak

The good folks at Statistically Speaking have invited me to participate in their latest roundtable discussion. In it, we talk about Trevor Hoffman, stats on TV broadcasts, and small-sample wonders.

Enjoy!

I mentioned that the bloggers hung out with team staffers, but that doesn’t do it justice. The names of those staffers? Ned Coletti, Frank McCourt, and Tommy Lasorda. You may have heard of them.

Even if you’re a cynic who believes such a maneuver could be motivated only by the desire to buy influence, you have to admit, the Dodgers went all out in their efforts. It’s not every day that a team’s most ardent and vocal supporters get an audience with the general manager, owner, and iconic figure.

One of our regular readers (Coronado Mike) noticed what the Dodgers had done and suggested that maybe the Padres could put something similar together for their bloggers. I offered no comment at the time, but in fact, I was trying to organize such a meetup with the club.

Although the Padres and I had some good dialogue, ultimately it bore no fruit. Why? Well, that’s not for me to guess, but it’s my hope that the intial groundwork laid in these discussions eventually will lead to something greater.

Meanwhile, I’m glad to see teams starting to think of folks who are passionate about their product as good customers rather than enemies of the state. As a blogger, I’m thrilled at what the Dodgers did and I hope that other teams will follow their lead. As a business owner, I’m impressed by the team’s emphasis on fostering goodwill in the community. As a Padres fan, of course, I’m disappointed that the Dodgers beat our guys to the punch. But in the end, I like to think that we’re all better off — even if only in some small way — for what our neighbors to the north did a few weeks ago.

The Dodgers have a loyal following. Even though they didn’t need to reach out, they did it anyway. I don’t buy into the sense of entitlement that some bloggers seem to adorn, but I do think that most people appreciate being appreciated. I also think that teams whose following may not be as loyal as the Dodgers’ might want to take note of that organization’s actions. The Dodgers saw an opportunity to connect with their customers and advocates, and they pounced on it.

Smart business decision, that.