Gee, I Still Don’t Understand Sample Size

The Padres need to go out and get more hitters. I know this is true because I keep hearing it. I also know it’s a complete load of garbage. What they really need is for the hitters they already have to start performing up to their capabilities.

Padres Hitters: 2008, 2007, Career
    2008 2007 Career
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of April 29, 2008.
Josh Bard 30 95 54 443 107 1364 99
Adrian Gonzalez 26 116 126 720 125 1673 119
Tadahito Iguchi 33 116 64 533 92 1857 96
Kevin Kouzmanoff 26 123 64 534 109 718 98
Khalil Greene 28 116 57 659 100 2335 99
Scott Hairston 28 91 92 294 94 785 86
Jim Edmonds 38 77 36 411 88 7384 132
Brian Giles 37 114 116 552 109 7043 139
Paul McAnulty 27 62 98 43 49 149 77

The only guy who might be playing over his head is McAnulty. But we don’t really know because we’ve never gotten the opportunity to see what P-Mac is capable of doing at the big-league level over extended periods of time.

Gonzalez and Giles are about where we’d expect. Hairston’s numbers seem reasonable, although thanks to a lack of consistent playing time in the past, his abilities remain unclear.

The rest of these guys are badly underperforming. In Edmonds’ case, it very well could be because he’s finished, but we don’t have enough evidence just yet. Iguchi isn’t young, but he shouldn’t be in the decline phase of his career (although after the Marcus Giles Fiasco, one never knows).

That leaves Kouz and Khalil. The former has only one season under his belt, while the latter is known to be a streaky hitter. Both are in what should be their physical primes. If either of those guys finishes with numbers anywhere near where they’re at now, their careers are effectively over. If you believe they’re done, then I’m out of answers.

Sorry, just needed a reality check there. Now I can go back to laughing at the notion that acquiring Reggie Willits (not Reggie Jackson) or Nyjer Morgan (not Joe Morgan) will magically cure whatever may ail the Padres. Yes, I actually heard this suggested on talk radio Tuesday night. It makes about as much sense as believing that the Padres truly are this bad at hitting baseballs.

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113 Responses »

  1. #99@JP: He can be every bit as valuable on offense as Nady, who many people consider a starter. But he’s always going to be the kind of player you want to upgrade from. A bench / platoon player on a good team.

    He’s got a career 481 SLG in the minors, with a 180 ISO, so he seems to have at least moderate power, but it’s the kind that will be masked in Petco. Not a great player, probably not even a good player compared to other major league OFer, but an average hitter who can do some important things. Better than running Sir Kingsale out to LF.

  2. An outfield of Nady/McLouth/Giles/PMac would be one hell of a hot start right now.

    However, to my knowledge, these men seldom pitch in relief.

  3. #72@Tom Waits: I’d love to see Beltran patrolling Petco, but it would never happen.

  4. #103 SDSUBaseball, I think there is a very good chance Beltran will be here in about 6 years.

  5. #105@parlo: Only if he tears an ACL in 5 years.

  6. #106@SDSUBaseball: and if the Pads are willing to give up one of thier top 10 prospects to get him…

  7. #107@Steve C: Was Freese a top 10 prospect?

  8. #108@SDSUBaseball: depends on who you talk too, but he was atleast in most peoples top 15.

  9. #109@Steve C: No doubt dude could hit. He was a little old, but it would had been nice to see how he did in the upper levels. Where is he playing now? I cant find anything on him in the Cards system.

  10. #103@SDSUBaseball: I’m just saying, “that’s” the perfect CF. Not Slappy Willits. Willits is like Eckstein at short, you can win with him, maybe even win a championship with him, but you’ll always be wanting more. He’s not a sinkhole on offense, but he’s not much of a benefit, either.

    #110@SDSUBaseball: Freese is currently posting an 846 OPS in Memphis (AAA), with an uncharacteristic K/BB rate.

  11. While looking for info about “Defensive Effeciency”, I came across this page at BP with Standings + goos supporting team stats …


  12. #39@LynchMob: Oh, but I was there..yikes. The top half of the first took 40 minutes, and LeBlanc racked up 41 pitches. It was brutal, the whole game clocked in at the 4 hour mark or there abouts.