Gee, I Still Don’t Understand Sample Size
Wed, Apr 30, 2008
by Geoff Young
The Padres need to go out and get more hitters. I know this is true because I keep hearing it. I also know it’s a complete load of garbage. What they really need is for the hitters they already have to start performing up to their capabilities.
| 2008 | 2007 | Career | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | PA | OPS+ | PA | OPS+ | PA | OPS+ | |
| Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of April 29, 2008. | |||||||
| Josh Bard | 30 | 95 | 54 | 443 | 107 | 1364 | 99 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 26 | 116 | 126 | 720 | 125 | 1673 | 119 |
| Tadahito Iguchi | 33 | 116 | 64 | 533 | 92 | 1857 | 96 |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff | 26 | 123 | 64 | 534 | 109 | 718 | 98 |
| Khalil Greene | 28 | 116 | 57 | 659 | 100 | 2335 | 99 |
| Scott Hairston | 28 | 91 | 92 | 294 | 94 | 785 | 86 |
| Jim Edmonds | 38 | 77 | 36 | 411 | 88 | 7384 | 132 |
| Brian Giles | 37 | 114 | 116 | 552 | 109 | 7043 | 139 |
| Paul McAnulty | 27 | 62 | 98 | 43 | 49 | 149 | 77 |
The only guy who might be playing over his head is McAnulty. But we don’t really know because we’ve never gotten the opportunity to see what P-Mac is capable of doing at the big-league level over extended periods of time.
Gonzalez and Giles are about where we’d expect. Hairston’s numbers seem reasonable, although thanks to a lack of consistent playing time in the past, his abilities remain unclear.
The rest of these guys are badly underperforming. In Edmonds’ case, it very well could be because he’s finished, but we don’t have enough evidence just yet. Iguchi isn’t young, but he shouldn’t be in the decline phase of his career (although after the Marcus Giles Fiasco, one never knows).
That leaves Kouz and Khalil. The former has only one season under his belt, while the latter is known to be a streaky hitter. Both are in what should be their physical primes. If either of those guys finishes with numbers anywhere near where they’re at now, their careers are effectively over. If you believe they’re done, then I’m out of answers.
Sorry, just needed a reality check there. Now I can go back to laughing at the notion that acquiring Reggie Willits (not Reggie Jackson) or Nyjer Morgan (not Joe Morgan) will magically cure whatever may ail the Padres. Yes, I actually heard this suggested on talk radio Tuesday night. It makes about as much sense as believing that the Padres truly are this bad at hitting baseballs.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
April 30, 2008 at 7:44 am
Good morning,
The only thing I would disagree on is the Iguchi comments. Plenty of players are in significant decline by age 33. Every player doesnt stay in the major leagues through their late 30s.
April 30, 2008 at 7:57 am
Good analysis and reality check GY, I think we all know that this team can and will hit better. Here is my only concern of all the players that you have listed only 3 are career above average hitters, Edmonds is one but I think we can all agree that he is well on the downside of his career and does not look like he is recovering at all from his slow star, Giles is 37 and on the last year of his contract and has no speed and very little power left so unless the rest of the lineup is capable of playing station to station baseball he will just spend a lot of time standing on 1B , and Adrian we all know and love.
I think we can all agree that Kouz is going to hit this year and who knows he may turn into a guy who is notorious for having slow starts to the season and your right we don’t know what P-mac is capable of yet.
But my real question is can you really play championship level baseball with a team where 5 out of the 8 hitters are below average?
April 30, 2008 at 8:42 am
Re 2: Sure you can….but you better have Albert Pujols and at least 1 other borderline all star in the middle of the lineup.
Padres don’t have that.
Mark
April 30, 2008 at 9:14 am
Sort of interesting…
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....ll-lo.html
Geoff,
I think (at least from my point of view) the Reggie Willits suggestion wasn’t that he was going to fix everything but a way to upgrade a position (which may or may not have happened) and he seems tailor made for our front office and our park. You are totally correct though when you say that the players we have need to start hitting. We have decent players but for whatever reason they all have taken the season off so far.
April 30, 2008 at 9:22 am
You know, according to Jake, Kenny Lofton would fix our ills.
With that being said tongue in cheek, he does have an OPS+ over 100 two of the last 3 years.
Just say’n.
April 30, 2008 at 9:23 am
Wait a minute, Geoff. I would rather have Derik Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Albert Pujoles then the guys you mention. And if Alex is on the DL, Chipper Jones would be a good choice.
But seriously Folks, it still April. Tomorrow, this team goes 21-9 in the month of may, catches the D-backs and clinches a playoff spot all before the ASB. Petco suddenly becomes a home-team hitters park while still maintaining its pitcher park status, the city of San Diego discovers gold nuggets while digging sewers on Broadway, and oil prices drop to $100 a barrel.
April 30, 2008 at 9:26 am
Geoff, stop drinking the kool-aid. You are right with your analysis, both Greene and Kouz are underperforming at this point. But as another comment pointed out, even if these guys perform up to their historic abilities, that leaves you with Hairston, Edmonds and Iguchi creating massive holes in the lineup and Bard and Kouz as very average for their positions. I’m not saying that the Padres need to add a power bat, but they have a lineup full of slow players with historically low OBP’s. Maybe adding Willits wouldn’t solve all of their problems, but it wouldn’t hurt and it would absolutely solve the biggest long term problem the Padres have right now which is finding a CF and a leadoff hitter.
April 30, 2008 at 9:31 am
re 7:
Bard as average for his position? Might want to check those numbers.
April 30, 2008 at 9:37 am
In case anyone is interested, here is the article announcing the opening of the Pads Dominican Baseball facility.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3374185
April 30, 2008 at 9:39 am
#4@KRS1: Agree. I don’t know what the callers on talk radio are saying, but right now a three-toed sloth would be an upgrade in CF over Edmonds. The Padres may need to tweak their model for position-player veterans; there’s Piazza, but there’s also Castilla and now, by most indications, Hollywood Jim. Wanting a better player in CF - which the Padres themselves are pursuing - isn’t the same as saying that Willits immediately fixes everything.
#5@Coronado Mike: Better to DL Edmonds, call up Gerut, and have him split time with Hairston in CF. That way you’ll find out something valuable about possible members of next year’s team.
April 30, 2008 at 9:42 am
Maybe Greene and Kouzmanoff will get hot right as Giles or Gonzalez go into a slump.
April 30, 2008 at 9:44 am
Agree Lofton will not make this team a contender so why take playing time away from someone who may be on the team in 09.
April 30, 2008 at 9:46 am
Regardless of why. The Padres are in a position where they will have they will have to play well above average over the next five months, in order to reach the 81 win level. My question is: Is it wise to have a team filled with players who will not be part of the 2009 squad (Tad, Edmunds, Giles, Maddux, Wolf), when your strech goal is playing .500 ball?
April 30, 2008 at 9:53 am
Tom and Steve C, I was not advocating…Mainly making fun of and then informing.
April 30, 2008 at 9:54 am
#13@Field39: It makes some sense to keep them if:
1. You’re not getting much in trade for them.
2. The risk of damaging your young players through failure at the big league level is too high.
I’m not convinced that OG is gone at the end of this year. He’s not easy to trade, with his NTC and a salary jump, and his buyout is 3 million. 6 million for a 110 OPS+ bat isn’t bad.
April 30, 2008 at 10:04 am
Today’s your last chance to put a stake in the sand with respect to your expectations for Trevor for the month of May …
http://www.predictify.com/auctionview.aspx?ID=3873
In this forum, there are currently 102 responses with 16% predicting Trevor to have >80% success in May vs 54% at 65-80% and 22% at 50-65% and 9% at <50% …
This is just a way to go “on record” … and to start to see if a group can/does have better insights than you do …
The way I’m looking at this is that this is giving me a forum to be clear about what I think Trevor’s status is … and a quick/clean way to know that I’m wrong should Trevor do what I truly hope he does!
April 30, 2008 at 10:09 am
Or if you don’t want to sign up for predictify.com (which is free and I’ve found interesting), here’s the same poll over at GLB …
http://www.gaslampball.com/200.....-do-in-may
And to me, it’s interesting to note that the 68 folks who have voted there so far (presumably Padre fans) are 54% predicting Trevor to have >80% success versus 25% at 65-80%, 8% at 50-65%, and 11% at <50%.
I don’t think either poll has much significance … but perhaps when we meet up at Cooperstown for Trevor’s HOF induction, this will provide insights into the end-game part of Trevor’s MLB story.
April 30, 2008 at 10:15 am
#15@Tom Waits: But if the Pads are going to re-tool next year why pay him the $6mil to take away AB’s from Headley or Huffman?
April 30, 2008 at 10:22 am
Out of everyone, I think the biggest surprise is Kouzmanoff. As bad as he was last April (.113 BA, HR, 4 RBI), he actually has more K’s and less walks this season, while hitting just one homer. I’m pretty sure the majority of people figured he was going to have a breakout season. While he is hitting about .125 points higher this season, the problem is that he was hidden in the #8 hole last April and now he is our #3 or 4 hitter. That pretty much tells you where we’re at this season, compared to last season.
With that said, I think he’ll get it going and end up close to a respectable .290-20-80 season.
April 30, 2008 at 10:27 am
#18@Steve C:
I honestly think TW might be on to something.
The way it looks now Huffman does not appear ready. Yes he still has a lot of season left to change that but we’ll see.
You can also point to the lack of veteran leadership on the team next year. If Maddux and Hoffman are out then that makes Jake the elder statesman on the pitching staff and leaves… Khalil I guess on the offense. UGHHH! Can you imagine Headley going to Khalil for advice on anything and walking away enlightened? I’m not sure I can.
You can value vetran leadership however you like but at that price I think Giles is more than reasonable and just the type of personality that might be good for the kids to observe. Have fun but take care of your business. Plus I still think most of the time Giles is one of the more “heady” guys at the plate.
I could totally see it happen.
April 30, 2008 at 10:27 am
#18@Steve C: That assumes that both players will still be here and considered outfielders. It’s not hard for me to picture Kouzmanoff going elsewhere and Headley going back home to 3b, Huffman playing LF, and Giles providing some stability in the OF. Besides, there’s no scouting report on earth that says either Huffman or Headley can play RF. Maybe Huffman can, but he’s been a LF most of the time.
The team will still need to strike a balance between developing players and winning some games. We can be pretty sure they’re not going to spin that 6 million into the draft, and we know they can’t use it to pay down their debt, so not paying Giles is unlikely to help the team much in 09 or further on. Again, I’m not necessarily advocating that they keep him; we don’t know enough about our options. But I could easily see the Padres deciding that Giles brings enough to the table to be worth 6M.
April 30, 2008 at 10:43 am
#21@Tom Waits: I have never seen Huffman play or throw so I really don’t know if he could handle RF but I would imagine that Headley might. I would imagine that he has a good arm if he played 3B and with a little more experience in the OF he may be able to move over to right.
But you may also be right, if a team would be willing to trade a good CF prospect for Kouz I’m sure the Pads would make the deal and move Headley back to 3B.
I agree that the $6mil they save on Giles will not go back into the team. I just don’t think the Padres will pick up his option unless they think that they will be able to compete next year. I think the Pads are looking to dump a ton of payroll next year, they are not going to re-sign Maddux, Hoffy or Wolf and I don’t see them spending any money in FA so they are going to start the re-building process from within so why spend $6 mil on a guy that will take AB’s away from your future? With the veteran leadership aspect of it I think letting Giles go would help guys like Adrian and Kouz (if he is not traded) step into that role (like what the chargers did with Seau and Harrison a few years ago).
April 30, 2008 at 10:47 am
I’ve been calling for reggie willits because he’d solve our need for both a centerfielder and as well for a speedy lead off hitter. For a team that goes station to station, having someone who could stretch a single going first to third along with iguchi (and later antonelli) at the top would improve the ability of the team to manufacture
runs. He’s not a cureall but he’d help the team.
April 30, 2008 at 10:48 am
#15@Tom Waits:
1: I believe Wolf could be moved easily and would provide good value. The others have some level of difficulty.
2: I had hoped that one or two of the young players were far enough along.
3: OG is the least of my concerns, but a decision will have to be made.
April 30, 2008 at 10:53 am
#22@Steve C: A slow-footed former infielder isn’t likely to succeed playing 81 games in our huge RF.
They won’t necessarily be looking at Kouz’s trade value. If they determine that he just has too many holes in his game, why keep him when he’s blocking a better defender and possibly a better hitter?
The Padres may need to be careful about dumping too much salary. Some fan backlash has already occurred (whether the team thinks it’s justified or not). If they finish this season at 74-88, having traded 15 million worth of players, it may be prudent, for both on- and off-field reasons, to spend a little more on Giles. You can always trade him mid-2009 if need be. On the other hand, they may feel comfortable playing Hairston and/or Gerut in RF, with a new CF, or going some other route. And who knows, maybe they climb back in the race this year.
April 30, 2008 at 10:54 am
I’m of the position that the Padres should pick up Willits. He should come fairly cheaply.
Do I think that he is gonna be some sort of panacea? No. Is he the type of player that the Padres can use? Absolutely. Willits can run and he has OBP skills. That plays well in Petco. Further, and I know this isn’t particularly SABR worthy, but I think his speed would help diversify the offense a little. San Diego have too many station-to-station plumbers.
As a fan, this team has been brutal to watch thus far, imo, Admittedly, As a simple-minded bumpkin, I like the offense, but seeing the Padres being done in by a 2-0 lead is just too much to stomach.
April 30, 2008 at 10:58 am
PMAC overachieving ? .215 lifetime BA. This year a lofty .719 OPS and 14 K’s in only 58 at bats.
What should he be achieving at ?
BTW, Nyjer Morgan the sole answer ? No. but when we received Hairston (who will be the one guy who will straighten himself out in 2008) last year for our run, did it not help ? What about when the 1971 Cincinnati Reds acquired the little used George Foster for Frank Duffy, was that not a lateral move gone good ?
April 30, 2008 at 10:59 am
#24@Field39:
1. The big danger (and it may not be that big) with moving Wolf and/or Maddux is simple innings. You’ve got to find 2 starts every 5 games somewhere. I guess we could go with Estes (shudder) and then monitor the workload of whatever kids get called up.
2. It’s certainly possible that either the kids won’t struggle much or it won’t damage them. I wouldn’t let it stand in our way with someone like Headley. Antonelli’s defense worries me, but that’s just numbers, maybe he’s had some very tough chances at 2b. I still wonder if they’re considering putting him back on the left side of the diamond or in CF, with Sogard coming on fast.
April 30, 2008 at 11:01 am
#1@parlo: Plenty of players may well be in decline at age 33; what evidence leads you to believe that Iguchi should be one of them?
#2@Steve C: Thankfully we don’t have a team with 5 of 8 regulars that are below-average hitters.
#4@KRS1: Depends on the cost, but if Edmonds still sucks in 3-4 weeks, then I’d just as soon shift Hairston to CF and go with P-Mac & Huber in LF until Headley is ready.
#7@BigWorm: I’ve acknowledged Edmonds. I look forward to seeing your data to support the contention that Hairston and Iguchi will continue to create “massive black holes.” Show me why I should switch to your kool-aid.
#20@KRS1: I don’t know Khalil personally, but I’ll take my chances with his leadership over, say, Phil Nevin’s.
#22@Steve C: I’m really not excited about the prospect of seeing Headley and Huffman man the corners at Petco.
#23@Loren: The main problem I have with Willits is that he’s purely a stopgap solution. If you can get him for cheap, great, but don’t give up legit prospects.
April 30, 2008 at 11:06 am
#26@clyde: I’m not sure how cheap Willits will come. He doesn’t cost the Angels anything and they don’t have many needs.
April 30, 2008 at 11:17 am
#29@Geoff Young: Who else projects to man the corners after Giles is gone (either at the end of this year or in 09)? Hairston may end up working out but he would have to figure out how to hit against right handed hitters if he wants to play every day, Gerut may end up working out but the Pads only control him for 2 more years at best.
April 30, 2008 at 11:22 am
Iguchi’s OPS+ and slugging has gone down every season he’s been in the majors. There’s no trend that shows that he’s not declining.
If I understand OPS+ correctly, then any OPS+ under 100 is below league average. Geoff, you’ve listed only three players with a career OPS+ above 100, meaning the rest are below league average. And one of the ones above 100 is Jim Edmonds, whom I’m sure we can all agree is no longer an above league average player.
Your point of bringing up Nevin is interesting to me. When this team had guys like Nevin and Klesko and Caminiti and Finley, they wore their heart on their sleeve and if the team was stuck in a 2-11 funk, they’d definitely be saying something about it. I’m not entirely certain this is the case, but it seems like the majority of this team doesn’t care that they’re the worst team in the National League right now. Outside of Peavy, and to a lesser extent Josh Bard, there’s nobody on this team who’s going to call out this team and get them motivated. Aside from needing hitters, this team also needs players who have a bit of fire and passion. These Padres purely seem to be going through the motions at this point.
April 30, 2008 at 11:24 am
Geoff, Other than a small decline in his OPS+ over three years, there is not much to prove he is in decline. I simply disagree with your comment that “he shouldnt be in the decline phase of his career”.
If it can happen to Roberto Alomar and Chuck Knoblauch, it can certainly happen to Iguchi.
April 30, 2008 at 11:28 am
#32@Bryan: Small drops over 3 years may not be a trend. It could be, but it could also be:
2005 - 2006: Norm. He’s 4 points on either side of 100.
2007: Hurt
2008: Slow start
Nevin saying something about it didn’t prevent the teams he was on from continuing to lose, and there are plenty of incidents in which he was simply an ass to younger players, which served no purpose. I liked the way he hit. You’d be hard-pressed to prove that his mouth or his “leadership” provided any benefits.
April 30, 2008 at 11:30 am
Here’s some interesting facts:
At 10-17 and nine games back, the Padres have not been this far behind the division leader in April since 1987, when they started 2-12. That team finished 65-97 and in last place, 25 games behind division winner San Francisco. That team was also third to last in runs scored in the league.
Conclusion: This is not the type of road the Padres want to be going down. Things need to change soon, especially offensively.
April 30, 2008 at 11:33 am
Tom: I agree regarding Nevin for the most part. But I would still like to see a player in here who’s willing to speak up in the clubhouse and let the team know that playing like this is completely unacceptable. Lead by example types like Gonzalez and Giles are nice, but I thnk we also need a more vocal leader. LaDainian Tomlinson may play another sport, but I think he’s a good example.
April 30, 2008 at 11:34 am
#29@Geoff Young:
Yeah I think I would like to see Hairston in CF more also.
Khalil to Nevin… Yeah you probably couldn’t find anyone to argue that with you. Although on a funny Nevin-ish side note the fox telecast saturday did catch Khalil slam his helmet in the dugout after striking out. I had to rub my eyes and rewind the DVR a couple of times to make sure I actually saw what I thought I did. He was pissed!
April 30, 2008 at 11:38 am
#36@Bryan: Would we know about if anyone is saying it in the clubhouse?
I’m not a big football guy, but didn’t LT sit on the bench with his head down against New England? That’s not intended as a slam on him, but sometimes a player’s leadership fluctuates just like his batting average or his yards per carry.
April 30, 2008 at 11:44 am
Good news from Portland … Gerut with HR #4 in the first inning
Bad news for Portland … Gerut’s HR made the score 6-1 … LeBlanc giving up 6 ERs on 2 HRs in the top of the first …
Glad I didn’t take the day off to drive up there … ug …
April 30, 2008 at 11:45 am
The team was 8-6 as of April 15.
April 30, 2008 at 11:46 am
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....ml?eref=T1
April 30, 2008 at 11:49 am
38: This is true, I absolutely don’t know if anyone has said anything in the clubhouse. I hope someone has, but I can say that it seems to me that there’s no one on the team who is going to step up anytime soon, before things get too out of hand.
April 30, 2008 at 11:49 am
#41@KRS1: I would say that is a pretty good assessment of petco.
April 30, 2008 at 11:50 am
#41 KRS1, How are we 14th in team quality ? They must have taken the poll during the opening Houston series.
April 30, 2008 at 11:51 am
Regarding only have 3 players above 100 OPS+ for their career … well, we also have 4 guys within 4 points of an average OPS+. They are pretty … average. I mean, it’s not like 100 is the cut off between good and bad. Plus, that’s not considering position. Greene and Bard are well above average for their position … Iguchi probably is, too. This offense is much closer to average than people think (imo, anyway).
Of course, they haven’t played like it, which is pretty much what Geoff says in his post.
April 30, 2008 at 11:54 am
#44@parlo: I think it is basing it off of last years team.
I really disagree with the Fenway rankings. The atmosphere there was amazing, the food was great although it does not have the over priced “luxury” restaurants who’s food is really not that great (im looking at you Toyota terrace).
April 30, 2008 at 11:56 am
#45@MB: does OPS+ take pitchers and bench players into account for the 100 average? I was always under the impression that your every day players should be a bit above 100.
April 30, 2008 at 11:57 am
Did AJ Murray just get called up by the Rangers? He left the start against Portland after 1 inning, comfortably ahead 8-1.
LeBlanc…..dang. 9 hits in 2 innings, and it could have been worse if he didn’t pick off a runner in the 2nd.
April 30, 2008 at 12:01 pm
#47@Steve C: Pitchers are removed, but bench players are not.
I guess it depends on how you define average — whether or not you think bench players should be included. I happen to think that they probably should, but yeah, if you took all the starters, I’m guessing their OPS+ would be a bit over 100.
April 30, 2008 at 12:05 pm
#46 Steve, I think people on the east coast are less likely to rave about fast food. Whether its from a counter, or served at the terrace, it is still chain food. Thats much more acceptable here. I noticed Yankee Stadium lets you bring food in. The delicatessens nearby are an option.
I wish we could do that here.
April 30, 2008 at 12:07 pm
#49@MB: It might balance out. You’ll occasionally see some bench players with positive numbers (Scott Hairston, 2007), to go along with others who are well below 100.
April 30, 2008 at 12:09 pm
#50@parlo: Unless something has changed this year, you can bring in food. I did it all the time.
April 30, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Beavers are trying to get back in it, now 8-4. Gerut with a HR and a sac fly, Headley just hit a ground-rule double that would have made it 8-5 if the ball had stayed in.
April 30, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Geoff, I gotta disagree about Willits
He’s 26, he fits the profile of what we want in a CF perfectly (takes pitches, walks, slaps the ball around) and brings speed. He’s never been given a chance to really play because the Angels have so many outfielders. Give him a chance and he should fit perfectly and long term with the Padres and Petco. I think we need some speed and the other option is to trade Greene to the Cubs (who are interested in him) for Felix Pie, Eric Patterson/Ronnie Cedeno and someone else.
April 30, 2008 at 12:17 pm
#20@KRS1: Are we looking at the same Huffman?
April 30, 2008 at 12:21 pm
#51@Tom Waits: Yeah, good point. Plus, there are plenty of starters under 100 … not sure exactly how it’d work out. Still, I’d guess starters are better overall. Something that could be looked at, though. I believe someone has actually (or at least something similar). I’ll let you guys know if I find it.
April 30, 2008 at 12:32 pm
I can’t help but think of yesterday’s UT blurb about the Padres interest from last year in Felix Pie and the Cubs reciprocal interest in Khalil. I would think long and hard about doing a Greene for Pie/Cedeno.
April 30, 2008 at 12:35 pm
#55@SDSUBaseball: Huffman’s a nice prospect, but he’s not hitting any better in AA than Headley did, and Chase has struggled badly to start 2008.
#54@Loren: I sure don’t “want” a slap hitter in CF. I’ve yet to see a convincing argument as to why that works better in Petco and how it would be effective on the road. I’d much rather have a solid OBP guy with very good defense, some speed, and enough power to hit 20 HR. But if the choice is between Edmonds circa 2008 and Willits (and if next year’s choice is similar), then Willits wins.
April 30, 2008 at 12:36 pm
#58@Tom Waits: We had that guy at one point, but they are hard to come by.
April 30, 2008 at 12:42 pm
#59@Steve C: Oh, I agree. I’m just disagreeing with the idea that Willits “perfectly” fits our needs. He may be an acceptable solution, depending on his defense and how the rest of the lineup shapes up.
April 30, 2008 at 12:48 pm
#58@Tom Waits:
But, Tom,
Slap hitting shows up to the ballpark every day; 20 home runs only about once a week and not even that.
April 30, 2008 at 12:50 pm
An interesting look at pitching stats … and 4 pitchers who are off to good starts …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=7450
… including Padres’ Randy Wolf.
April 30, 2008 at 12:51 pm
#50@parlo: #52@Coronado Mike: Yep, you can bring in all the food you want. Beverages are limited to small sealed water bottles.
April 30, 2008 at 12:57 pm
#45@MB: Just to illustrate that Greene and Bard are above average players for their position (OPS+), with Iguchi average but below the median:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....g-average/
2007 OPS+ by position
Pos Mean Median
C 86 83
1B 115 108
2B 96 100
3B 109 101
SS 94 94
RF 111 105
CF 97 88
LF 107 101
(Minimum 100 plate appearances, Player qualifies at position if 50% or more games played are at that position.
April 30, 2008 at 1:03 pm
#64@Flash: Nice! I think that is actually the article I was going to look for.
April 30, 2008 at 1:07 pm
#58@Tom Waits: We had that player. His name was Mike Cameron.
April 30, 2008 at 1:11 pm
#66@SDSUBaseball: Speaking of Cameron, he had his first game back last night. 3-5 with a double, 2 RBI, a walk and no strike outs.
April 30, 2008 at 1:14 pm
#54@Loren: Slapping the ball around is not part of the profile that the Padres are looking for.
April 30, 2008 at 1:20 pm
#66@SDSUBaseball: Too bad he couldn’t stay away from the drugs, huh?
April 30, 2008 at 1:29 pm
#69@Richard Wade: I dont think thats why he isnt on the Padres.
April 30, 2008 at 1:34 pm
#55@SDSUBaseball:
We must be.
Huffman’s numbers so far are decent but look at what Headley did in San Antonio last year. It’s not exactly close yet. Like I said by the end of the season he might be pushing OG out the door himself but if we’re looking at the same guy right now it’s a bit pre-mature if you ask me.
April 30, 2008 at 1:35 pm
#61@Stephen: A guy who gets one slap hit single every game and a half isn’t more valuable than a guy who homers once every week and a half, but still gets on base 36% of the time.
The list of successful slap hitters in the last 20 years is very short. Defenses start to crowd them, pitchers start to challenge them. Every once in a while you’ll get a Brett Butler.
#66@SDSUBaseball: Yes, we did. Carlos Beltran would also work. Even DeJesus might do.
April 30, 2008 at 1:38 pm
#71@KRS1: Gotcha. I must have mis-read. I got the impression you were writing him off as a possibility.
April 30, 2008 at 1:39 pm
I wonder how much truth there was to the offseason rumor of Headley to the Pirates for Nate McLouth and X Nady. If anyone is keeping track, those two combined to go 6-for-7 with 3 doubles, 6 RBI, 3 BB’s, and 5 runs today against the Mets.
current stats:
McClouth: .342, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 12 2B
Nady: .337, 4 HR, 26 RBI. 9 2B)
It might have just been a rumor but if it wasn’t, I imagine Kevn Towers is kicking himself right about now for not pulling that one off.
April 30, 2008 at 1:42 pm
#74@JMAR: Nady always seems to start hot. Then people re-read the scouting report and throw him fastballs up and sliders away.
McClouth was interesting. A Pmac bat with better defense in a corner, but probably not a CF.
April 30, 2008 at 1:46 pm
#75@Tom Waits: You’re right about Nady but you never know, he might actually adjust to the adjustments and keep it up for a full season. Naaaaah.
As for McLouth, I didn’t think of him as a CF either but he’s playing everyday in CF for Pittsburgh and he’s having an All-Star caliber season so far.
April 30, 2008 at 1:49 pm
#75@Tom Waits: What is a PMAC bat anyway ? It’s a bat that probably find itself out of the league shortly. He sux.
April 30, 2008 at 1:52 pm
#77@JP: Snap judgment much? He’s one of 3 Padre hitters with an OPS+ near 100. Good eye at the plate, moderate power.
Does he sux as much as Luis Gonzalez does this year? No, he doesn’t.
April 30, 2008 at 1:53 pm
#76@JMAR: Playing in CF and doing it well aren’t the same thing, but Edmonds isn’t doing that either. Last time I checked McClouth’s fielding numbers were poor, but he might end up being fine in a corner anyway. Still, I doubt Towers is kicking himself for that right now.
April 30, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Ha, remember last year at this time when the general fan populace was really down on Mike Cameron? Now we long for the halcyon days of yore, when Cameron was patrolling center field, his majestic strides effortlessly tracking down loud outs, and whipping his bat through the zone to send balls flying deep to left. Seriously, though, Cameron had a .508 OPS last year after April in 116 PA, a good reminder that it’s still too early to write off even people on the wrong side of 30 (Cameron was 34).
April 30, 2008 at 2:04 pm
#78@Tom Waits: Glad you remember my Luis Gonzo request, just to keep me honest….PMAC is one of the Pad’s best hitters ? Perhaps, but this shows just how woeful this team is offensively.
April 30, 2008 at 2:06 pm
#80@Ben B.: Cameron was also not almot 40 and coming off of an injury pleauged season.
April 30, 2008 at 2:07 pm
#81@JP: Right now PMac is an average major league hitter. He has a very good minor league track record, even including a down 2006. How do you get “sux” from that?
#80@Ben B.: Good times. Of course at the end of April last year we were at .500, with a positive run differential, and only 2.5 games back.