One aspect of the Padres we examined in the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual was their run differential by inning in 2007. Among other things, we learned that the Padres completely dominated the ninth inning of games last year, outscoring their opponents, 81-44. Not including extra frames, the Pads had negative run differentials in just two innings (sixth, -2; seventh, -4) in ’07.
With about 20% of the 2008 schedule in the books, I thought it might be instructive to see how the this year’s Padres are doing. I also thought it might be fun to try a different approach in looking at this question. Instead of using straight runs scored minus runs allowed, what if we use the Pythagorean theorem to determine the expected number of wins at various points during a game? For example, how would the Pads’ expected win total after three innings compare with that after six?
I used the 1.83 exponent version of the Pythagorean theorem (yeah, PythagenPat and Pythagenport are slightly more accurate, but they’re a pain to calculate and the extra precision isn’t worth the extra effort in our case — we’re checking email, not overclocking the processor) and found the following:
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | End |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball Reference and are through games of May 4, 2008. “End” includes extra-inning games. For 2008, totals are expressed in seasonal notation (i.e., expected wins per 162 games). | ||||||||||
2006 | 111 | 91 | 88 | 88 | 86 | 86 | 87 | 86 | 87 | 86 |
2007 | 84 | 89 | 87 | 88 | 88 | 87 | 86 | 85 | 89 | 89 |
2008 | 44 | 51 | 52 | 59 | 77 | 76 | 63 | 60 | 57 | 57 |
The first thing that jumps out is how awful the Padres have been in the first inning of games. They’ve been outscored, 24-14, in that inning, which translates to an expected record of 44-118. (Don’t get too hung up on the exact numbers here, we’re just trying to get a feel for how good or bad the team performs at point A relative to point B.)
You’ll also see how well the Padres are doing in the middle innings. We’ll look at this more in a moment, but for now it’s enough to know that the the Pads have outscored their opponents, 15-2, in the fifth so far this year (holding guys to a line of .099/.188/.119 always helps). That’s remarkable for a team with an overall run differential of -43.
Now for the really depressing news. The Padres are getting hammered in the late innings. The seventh has been their worst so far (outscored, 24-6), but really, it doesn’t get much better after that. From the seventh inning on, the Padres have been outscored, 65-28. How bad is that? Keep reading…
Another way to look at this is to break games into three segments: first three innings, second three innings, and everything else. Here are the Pythagorean records for the same three seasons using only runs tallied in the designated innings:
Year | 1-3 | 4-6 | 7+ |
---|---|---|---|
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball Reference and are through games of May 4, 2008. “End” includes extra-inning games. For 2008, totals are expressed in seasonal notation (i.e., expected wins per 162 games). | |||
2006 | 88 | 85 | 87 |
2007 | 87 | 87 | 93 |
2008 | 52 | 104 | 29 |
Again, for this table, we’re using only runs scored in the particular innings noted. You’ll see that the Padres were very consistent in ’06 and got stronger toward the end of games in ’07. This year, in an admittedly small sample, the story has been quite different. The team stumbles out of the gate, scrambles to make up ground in the middle innings, and then gives it all back (and then some) at the end.
How much of the poor end game falls on the hitters, and how much on the pitchers? Good question:
BA | OBP | SLG | sOPS+ | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball Reference and are through games of May 4, 2008. | ||||
7th inning | ||||
Padres | .196 | .272 | .277 | 50 |
Opponents | .276 | .361 | .415 | 110 |
National League | .254 | .332 | .394 | – |
8th inning | ||||
Padres | .209 | .282 | .296 | 63 |
Opponents | .252 | .314 | .358 | 89 |
National League | .250 | .336 | .389 | – |
9th inning | ||||
Padres | .198 | .255 | .323 | 76 |
Opponents | .300 | .376 | .456 | 154 |
National League | .230 | .311 | .371 | – |
Extra innings | ||||
Padres | .192 | .281 | .244 | 34 |
Opponents | .238 | .315 | .313 | 60 |
National League | .250 | .367 | .376 | – |
The rightmost column (sOPS+) denotes how well the Padres are performing relative to MLB. As with OPS+, 100 is average, so for rows marked “Padres,” higher is better, while for rows marked “Opponents,” lower is better.
I was hoping we might identify the specific root of our problems in late innings, but it’s pretty much a systemwide failure. The eighth inning is almost tolerable, while everything else is a complete mess.
We’re dealing with extremely small samples, but I can tell you that Cla Meredith has been brilliant (.176/.211/.235) in the seventh inning, while Joe Thatcher (.379/.441/.552) has been brutal. Thatcher has faced more batters in that inning than anyone else on the Padres staff this year; I don’t know how those appearances break down in terms of leverage, but I’d be strongly inclined to move Thatcher into a less meaningful role until he and Darren Balsley can figure out what he’s doing on the mound.
As noted earlier, the eighth has been okay. Kevin Cameron, Wil Ledezma, and Glendon Rusch all get smacked around, but those guys generally come into games that are already out of hand. His early shakiness notwithstanding, Heath Bell (.208/.276/.264) has been just fine in the eighth.
In the ninth, obviously Trevor Hoffman has struggled early and he’s working the highest-leverage situations. Meredith, Bell, and Enrique Gonzalez have been terrible, while Rusch has merely been bad — all in tiny samples (only Hoffman has faced more than 10 batters in the ninth this season).
On the hitting side, I won’t break it out by each inning, but the top performers for innings 7-9 by OPS are Paul McAnulty (22 PA, .200/.273/.400), Khalil Greene (40 PA, .206/.250/.412), and Tony Clark (20 PA, .250/.400/.250). So yeah, the Padres simply stop hitting after the sixth inning, which puts extreme pressure on a bullpen that hasn’t been as sharp as it was last year.
Who is to blame for the Padres’ late-inning woes? Most everyone wearing a uniform, really.
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