Series Preview: Rox Girl Talks Rockies
Tue, Apr 15, 2008
by Geoff Young
The Padres and Rockies hook up for the first time since that fateful Game 163 in Denver last October. I recently had a chance to chat with Rox Girl of the excellent Rockies blog Purple Row about her expectations for the 2008 season, the challenges of marketing a team that plays half its games west of Connecticut, and more.
Ducksnorts: Coming off their first World Series appearance, I’d imagine the Rockies are a hot item in town right about now. How optimistic are fans that this team can return to the playoffs in a very competitive NL West? How do you see this club doing in ‘08?
Rox Girl: The mood around Lodo is very optimistic. Well, at least it was before we got pummeled by the Diamondbacks the last couple of weeks.
I’m a little less optimistic, but that’s the way I’ve been from the get go. I think we’ll be competitive, but I don’t see any clear separation among the contenders in the division this year. A lot could go right and we’ll return to the playoffs, or a lot could go wrong and we’ll be around .500. I think the die in the NL West is slightly weighted to Arizona and LA this year, but all four teams seem to have a better than one in five shot of either winning the division or wildcard, and no better than one in three, which is both impressive and daunting. At this point anybody who says that they’re certain their team’s in is either lying or stupid. I think all we can say for sure is that all four teams should be better than the Giants. If they aren’t (ahem, Rockies are you listening to this?) something’s seriously wrong.
Ducksnorts: This is about how I see the division, although I consider the Diamondbacks more of a threat than the Dodgers. Arizona won the division last year without getting any contribution from the young position players. There’s a lot of untapped potential on that team, which disturbs me…
The Rockies didn’t make any big moves this off-season. Given how tough the division is and how aggressive teams like the Dodgers and Diamondbacks were, what kinds of moves might you have liked to see the team make?
Rox Girl: That’s difficult to answer. I’m sort of okay with the wait-and-see approach the team has taken as long as that’s what it really is and not a real complacency. I know the Rockies talked to Oakland about Danny Haren, but shied away from giving up the entire farm like Arizona did. The Rockies spent money, but it went to [Aaron] Cook, Tulo [Troy Tulowitzki], [Manny] Corpas and [Brad] Hawpe rather than free agents like Andruw [Jones] or [Hiroki] Kuroda. There are still opportunities to make big moves, if necessary, that might help our chances this year, but I think both the Padres and Rockies are similar in that their front offices do better in making seemingly insignificant moves turn a huge profit. You guys pick up Milton Bradley or Scott Hairston for nothing, and watch them drive the team. We trade Eli Marrero to get Kazuo Matsui, and fill a hole with a positive. Meanwhile, Dan O’Dowd’s track record with the high-profile moves hasn’t exactly been anything less than a train wreck, so I’m in a spot of quiet comfort with this under-the-radar approach. What about the Padres, have you reconciled with them the same way?
Ducksnorts: Good point about locking up the youngsters. As for under-the-radar moves, our teams are in a position where they need to execute these to succeed. Both have proven capable of doing so. After studying Kevin Towers’ trade record at great length, I have little reason to doubt his acumen. I’m perfectly content to watch division rivals throw eight figures at a #3 starter while the Padres routinely flip nothing for something. Headlines and notoriety are fun, but winning games is better.
I ask this next question because it’s the type of thing people want to know about the Padres, and our two teams are very similar in terms of how the public perceives them: Why should the suits at ESPN and other “national” media outlets care about the Rockies?
Rox Girl: Because we’re planning on moving to Bristol? Last season, the Rockies’ first game that was broadcast nationwide on Fox was Game 1 of the World Series. Their first national cable broadcast was the play-in game against the Padres. Unless our games start regularly ending before 11 Eastern time (Aaron Cook’s start this past Monday night actually made it, but that’s because the game started a half hour early and was the shortest in Coors Field history) when the East Coast news and SportsCenter can show our highlights, then I don’t see the national media attention turning our direction. To me, I’d think the smarter move would be that the Western teams establish strong local brands that travel well within the region and then try to market themselves as counterculture revolutionaries to young hipsters in Eastern cities. I envision a lot of Rockies ski caps on snowboarders in Vermont, or some emo kid wearing a Justin Upton jersey at Panic! At the Disco concerts in Boston or old school Padres regalia at a poetry reading in Greenwich Village in this scenario. You can see why I’m no longer in marketing. But no, I seriously think the way to approach this for the teams in the West is with absolutely zero regard to ESPN and other Eastern-based media outlets, but to focus on increasing exposure on regional sports networks and local newspapers. They need to follow the Dodgers’ lead and spend a lot more time, money and effort than they currently are on marketing to Mexico and Latin American countries — including visible tie-ins to the elite teams in those markets.
Ducksnorts: Right, this makes sense. As a Padres fan, ESPN and Fox really aren’t on my radar, which is fine because I’m not part of their target audience. It’s mainly Yankees and Red Sox fans who are buying whatever advertisers are selling at those networks, so where’s the incentive to engage folks who follow the Padres or Rockies? Creating demand at a local level would seem to be a good place to start. Get a buzz going, and maybe the larger conglomerates will start to pay attention; then these teams can build a reputation outside the region and bring in money from new sources.
Rox Girl: Remember how in the ’80s and early ’90s you would never hear about NASCAR? How their SportsCenter highlight would be a short blip covering one race on Sunday night and maybe a weekly half-hour show that probably aired at 3 a.m.? Yet these races would have a hundred-thousand fans screaming and buying merchandise and bringing a ton of revenue and once ESPN realized that they were losing out on ratings and ad dollars, they made a big effort to amp up their coverage. Now you hear about them all the time, how such and such driver is switching teams, or how one’s feuding with another. All of it’s really pretty boring to me still, but you’ve got to admit that the people that follow this are just as into it as we are into our teams, and there are a ton of them, and they have money to burn on products advertised on TV. Ultimately, the teams will only get noticed nationally after they build an audience that shows it has spending clout. Frankly, both teams need a lot more crazies in the stands, and a lot of rich closet crazies in the luxury boxes, before this happens. It would be helpful, though, if somebody created a West-biased national sports channel; you got a billion dollars or so to help out?
Ducksnorts: Not even in Monopoly money. I could bake cookies…
Thanks again to Rox Girl for stopping by and talking baseball with us. Best of luck to her team this year (once they’ve left San Diego, of course!).
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April 15, 2008 at 7:51 am
Nice interview, Geoff. Like you, I really do see a lot of similarities between the Rox and the Pads.
This is OT, but are there any specific scouting requests for the Storm tonite? I’m working tonite’s Mavericks game and should be able to watch a fair amount of the game. I’ll certainly pay attention to Cedric, but is there anyone else I should watch?
April 15, 2008 at 9:45 am
Geoff, maybe the Pads need to hook this up for you/others…
http://www.beantownwest.com/20.....ment_g.php
April 15, 2008 at 10:27 am
So, is Saito “done” also?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/bo.....=280414119
… eh, I guess his ERA is still only half what Trevor’s is
April 15, 2008 at 10:31 am
#1: Canham, Sogard.
#2: Er, um, no comment…
April 15, 2008 at 10:45 am
Lynch…you have no concerns about Trevor? None?
I am all for not jumping on the guy on such a small sample and, more importantly, he has earned every last chance, but you have to have some concerns…
April 15, 2008 at 10:53 am
5: I’m much, MUCH more concerned about Bell. If Trevor falls off the face of the earth, we could go to Bell (the Bell of last season) and not miss a beat. But if Bell is on his way to the DL, which early performance and reduced velocity may very well indicate, our bullpen is toast. I am very worried he was overworked last year and is heading for a breakdown.
April 15, 2008 at 11:08 am
5 … I typed up a long comment a couple of days ago about Trevor … and my laptop burp’d as I went to submit it and it vanished into the bit bucket … I don’t respond to such events well … I took it as a sign to let it go … but, in brief … yes, I have concerns … I expect him to blow at least 4-6 of his next 20 save ops … he is *not* the best pitcher in the Padre pen … he might be the worst if not for his mental abilities (ie. his experience on the mound in crunch time) … it’s clear that he lost significant velocity many years ago … and now it’s clear that he’s lost his ability to locate … that’s a tough combination to work thru …
and I agree 100% with Pat (#6) that Heath Bell’s velocity drop is much more of a concern, which makes it so that the Padres do not have a good/obvious alternative … do you want Meredith as closer? I don’t know what I want … so I can’t / won’t whine about Trevor … I think the facts are clear … the options for the near-term are not …
I guess what I’m hoping is that either Hensley and/or Prior can get healthy enough to help in the pen before Trevor is totally out of gas (but I don’t really expect Trevor to get much worse as the season goes on) … it seems more likely that they will get themselves into a position to pitch out of the pen before guys like Wells or Bass or others at Portland …
April 15, 2008 at 11:15 am
6: Completely agreed. Bell hasn’t been as effective (still pretty effective, but not quite as lights out as he had been) this year, and I’m slightly concerned. He’s giving up more deep fly balls than I remember.
April 15, 2008 at 12:00 pm
An interesting look back at BP’s comments on Randy Wolf …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=7369
… they propose that he was “abused” …
April 15, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Okay, thanks to a slick hack from reader Flash, when you click the little arrow next to a time/date stamp, the comment number now automagically appears as well as the person’s name. Sweet!
April 15, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Rocky Mountain News article on #163 and the aftermath.
http://www.rockymountainnews.c.....e-playoff/
Considering it’s a Denver paper, it’s pretty positive about the Padres, San Diego and especially Trevor.
The story about the donut has to make you laugh, particularly 7 months later. It does make you wonder if even Holliday knows he never touched ….
April 15, 2008 at 12:06 pm
#10@Geoff Young: Awsome Thanks GY!
April 15, 2008 at 12:10 pm
#12@Steve C: I only implemented. The credit goes entirely to Flash.
April 15, 2008 at 12:14 pm
#6@Pat:
I totally agree. Heath Bell looked like the best relief pitcher in the league in game 163 last year. He was throwing 97! This year his velocity is WAY down and his curve doesn’t have that bite that it did last year either. Heath’s effectiveness is key to this team and he has not stood out so far like he did last year.
April 15, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Good article on espn.com on Kouz:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3346825
April 15, 2008 at 12:31 pm
OT … Milton Bradley is hitting .366 in the early going …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280415113
#10@Geoff Young: Thanks, Flash … and …
#13@Geoff Young: … it even works for multiple replies!
April 15, 2008 at 12:42 pm
#13@Geoff Young: Thanks Flash!
April 15, 2008 at 12:43 pm
#1@Phantom: Hey Robby … if the Storm rotation is the same as last time thru, then you’ll see Cory Luebke pitch tonight … so a scouting report on him would be great (I think he’s a good prospect) … and if you take any pics, that’d be great also (a cousin of his has emailed me because I posted a video of him from spring training) …
April 15, 2008 at 12:48 pm
#13@Geoff Young: I rule
Anything to help out the DS community!
April 15, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Is anyone else concerned about the inflexibility of the bench? No one has any options left other than Colt Morton. Also, why not give Huber some playtime?
April 15, 2008 at 1:22 pm
#20@UC Michael: I don’t think that’s a big worry because he won’t play much when Headley comes up unless they bench Giles against left-handers (which is doubtful).
Huber just hasn’t had many chances to start — the Pads last game against a left-handed starter was last Wednesday against Jonathan Sanchez and the Giants. I was kind of surprised that he didn’t start instead of Edmonds that game although I understand if they want to get Edmonds as much work as possible in the early season as he missed the pre-season.
April 15, 2008 at 1:28 pm
#18@LynchMob: I can certainly do my best to scout him out, but I cannot promise any pictures. I’m sure that I’m already going to get razzed enough tonite, with the Mavs playing a Padres affiliate.
April 15, 2008 at 1:36 pm
#20@UC Michael: I generally like the composition of the bench; it’s tilted toward players who can hit, which is smart. I wish there was a better CF on it than Crabbe, and I wish there was one more player on it, period, instead of our 3rd long reliever.
I’m not worried about the options. You’re only going to send a guy down if he’s tanking or you’re desperate for a roster spot. You wouldn’t rejigger the 25 man just for a series.
April 15, 2008 at 2:17 pm
#23@Tom Waits: Mostly agreed, and I would make the extra bench guy a burner. Either that, or call up one of our reserve IFs and make Crabbe the burner. With our station-to-station offense, there are times when it would be really great to have someone who can blaze around the basepaths.
April 15, 2008 at 2:30 pm
#9@LynchMob: The Randy Wolf abuse story made me wonder if protecting young starters is part of what fuels KT’s emphasis on strong bullpen
April 15, 2008 at 2:48 pm
25: I think, unfortunately, it is more a function of our inability to develop quality young starters than a desire to protect them which has forced him into an emphasis on the pen. For example, can anyone name the last guy we developed internally prior to Jake (without going to BR and doing any research :-)?
April 15, 2008 at 2:51 pm
#26@Pat: Do Wade LeBlanc and Justin Germano count?
April 15, 2008 at 2:54 pm
#26@Pat: Joey Hamilton?
April 15, 2008 at 3:00 pm
#26@Pat: I forgot about Brian Lawrence. Oliver Perez was also signed originally by the Padres although he didn’t get good until he was traded in 2003. Matt Clement had three decent years in the late nineties before he was traded for Eric Owens and Cesar Crespo (yikes!).
April 15, 2008 at 3:01 pm
#25@Eric: I can think of a couple of points that might color that. KT has looked for strikeout arms in the pen back to 96, when there were no young starters to protect. And the Woody Williams trade forced young starters to throw more innings than they otherwise would have. We just haven’t had that many young starters to worry about protecting, especially the last few years when the pen has been really good.
#27@Phantom: Germano counts as a below-average major leaguer with the possibility of being average. LeBlanc doesn’t.
#28@Schlom: I’d count Matt Clement, then Hamilton before him.
April 15, 2008 at 3:05 pm
#29@Schlom: I forgot BLaw too. He was very solid for a few years. Ollie was pretty good for 90 innings in 2002, as a 20 year old.
But BLaw, Eaton, and Ollie were either not really young or gone by the time Towers started building strong bullpens again.
April 15, 2008 at 3:12 pm
#29@Schlom: Clement was traded WITH Eric Owens and Omar Ortiz for Kotsay and Crespo.
April 15, 2008 at 3:13 pm
I was actually thinking further back to Andy Benes, but it really depends on how you define “quality starter.”
Clement did have three nice years with the Cubs, but didn’t do much of anything in his other six seasons. Still he was pretty close to average by ERA+ over his career. Hamilton did have nice rookie and sophomore seasons, but I’d forgotten that due to how quickly he went downhill.
I don’t think I could count B-Law, but Oliver Perez is a good call albeit an up and down sort of quality starter. I definitely would not count Germano or LeBlanc at this point.
Nice work by Schlom, and I’ll give Phantom a gold star for his optimism.
April 15, 2008 at 3:25 pm
#33@Pat: YAY!!!
April 15, 2008 at 3:26 pm
#33@Pat: Not count BLaw? He probably had more success as a Padre than any of the recent names we’re using. Which is sorta sad, but he went 116 and 102 ERA+ his first two seasons (one of which was only 114 innings).
It would be great to have an Andy Benes at the back of our rotation now. From 90 to 98, with the exception of 95, he just racked up innings and a positive ERA+. 5 years with more than 220 innings and on track in 94 until the strike.
April 15, 2008 at 3:34 pm
#34@Phantom: You deserve it. Even with all the KG grief you take, you are invariably a positive guy and a great member of the DS community.
April 15, 2008 at 3:43 pm
#35@Tom Waits: As I said, it’s all subjective and dependent on how one defines quality starter. For me that definition includes a good length of time at the level, whatever level one may set, and some consistency.
Benes exemplifies this for me by his long run of above average seasons (at least by ERA+). Seven of his first eight seasons, not counting his short rookie year, were 106 or better with a couple of really good ones.
Lawrence did not have anywhere near that level of success. As you noted, his one clearly above average season was in only 114 IP, and it was all downhill from there until he was completely unable to perform in 2006 followed by only 29 IP in 2007. I don’t see the quality there. ymmv.
And it’s not necessarily success with the Pads but did we develop the player. That’s why I thought Ollie Perez was an interesting answer. He never really did much for us, but we did draft him and bring him up, so if you consider him to have developed into a quality starter at this point, he certainly counts.
April 15, 2008 at 3:58 pm
#32@Tom Waits: Yes, apparently I can’t read.
I was out of the country for most of 2002 and 2003 so I missed Oliver Perez’s time here. His ERA was terrible but those strikeouts sure do look good. Probably too many hits and walks too.
April 15, 2008 at 4:16 pm
On another note, K-Cam is back. Gonzalez has been outrighted to Portland.
April 15, 2008 at 4:29 pm
#39@Geoff Young: Doesn’t surprise me, he was pitching pretty well for the Beav’s by far there top guy out of the ‘pen.
Hey do you know what injury is keeping Startup on the Beavs DL?
April 15, 2008 at 4:38 pm
#36@Pat: I also ain’t got nothing but love for Phantom…
#39@Geoff Young: Yahoo!
April 15, 2008 at 4:44 pm
#40@Rain Delay: The Beavers web site says left elbow strain, in extended spring training.
The four-year professional, currently on the club’s disabled list with a left elbow sprain and rehabbing in extended spring training in Arizona, today was crowned champion of the 64-player, tournament-style “Minors Moniker Madness” competition on MiLB.com, the official site of Minor League Baseball.
The strain worries me; those seem to have a way of requiring surgery.
April 15, 2008 at 4:45 pm
#42@Tom Waits: Dang, I meant to copy the link, not the text. Sorry, portlandbeavers.com.
http://tinyurl.com/6r36nv
April 15, 2008 at 5:03 pm
#42@Tom Waits: Had I looked a bit further on the Beavers website I would’ve found it. LOL
April 15, 2008 at 5:08 pm
#10@Geoff Young: Sweet.
April 15, 2008 at 5:37 pm
B(l)um hasn’t sucked yet for the ’stros …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280415122
… whassup with *that*?
April 15, 2008 at 5:44 pm
Friar John has lineups posted …
http://padres.mlblogs.com/arch....._15_v.html
… no surprises … OG back in leadoff spot …
April 15, 2008 at 5:51 pm
#29@Schlom: #35@Tom Waits: #37@Pat: I wouldn’t count Brian Lawrence as a quality starter.
His best seasons
2001: 5-5, 3.45 ERA in 114.2 innings, 4.01 lgERA
2002: 12-12, 3.69 ERA in 210 innings, 3.74 lgERA
Those are average seasons. The rest were below average.
One of the definitions of “quality” is high grade; superiority; excellence.
For pitchers, I would say borderline All-Star or All-Star would be quality.
By the way, look, I’m responding to three posts. Sweet.
April 15, 2008 at 6:12 pm
#48@Kevin: That 116 ERA+ in 2001 is well above-average, but it was only 114 innings. If you were looking at him after 2002, he sure seems like the kind of young pitcher you’d want to protect via a strong bullpen. Of course by then it might have been too late, since he threw 210 innings that year, about 40 more than he ever had before. Yay Bochy.
April 15, 2008 at 6:18 pm
#49@Tom Waits: I sure don’t miss Bochy…
April 15, 2008 at 6:19 pm
#49@Tom Waits:
I can see that, but I would argue that quality has to be more than one season. And of a “high quality.” Which might take us back to Benes.
April 15, 2008 at 6:30 pm
By the way, Kevin Jarvis has to one of the worst pitchers to pitch 700+ innings and never be good. He never had an ERA better than the lgERA. A 6.03 career ERA.
April 15, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Before Benes, the last one I see is Ed Whitson.
I guess we could all agree the Padres haven’t produced a lot of quality starters.
April 18, 2008 at 9:53 am
Geoff,
Hasn’t ESPN been talking about setting up shop somewhere on the West coast? That might finally mean that they will start paying more attention to the West coast as far as coverage goes. Has anyone else heard of this or was I dreaming?