Reshaping the Padres: Let’s Make a Deal (or Three)
Fri, May 23, 2008
by Geoff Young
On Thursday, we examined what the Padres have and what they need. Now we turn to the question of which teams might make good trade partners and then consider some possible scenarios.
As of this writing, about half the teams in baseball appear to be in contention. Some will fall of the pace, although it’s impossible to know which ones. Others may not be interested in adding payroll despite their hot starts — Oakland, Florida, and Minnesota come to mind. The NL West teams are probably out as well — Kevin Towers has made a total of four trades (one with each team) within the division in 12 1/2 years. That’s out of 139 total trades, at last count.
Almost everyone needs pitching to some degree. Teams that could use help at second base, third base, or right field include Houston, Philadelphia, St. Louis, possibly the Angels (depending on Howie Kendrick’s balky left hamstring), the White Sox, Cleveland, Minnesota, Oakland, and Tampa Bay. Without running through all the particulars (I’ve scoured these teams’ rosters; you are free to do the same), here are a few ideas that I’d be looking to explore if it were my place to do so.
Talk to the Cardinals and White Sox about Iguchi
The Cardinals have Adam Kennedy at second base. He probably isn’t different enough from Tadahito Iguchi in terms of likely overall production to merit serious consideration. If St. Louis feels otherwise, though, I’d be asking about — and this should come as no surprise — right-hander Anthony Reyes.
Meanwhile, back in Chicago, the White Sox have Juan Uribe, who has been awful (.198/.262/.328) while making the switch from shortstop. They also have the untested Alexei Ramirez and might be inclined to bring in a more known quantity to fill the hole. Iguchi played for the Pale Hose as recently as last year and won a championship with them in 2005. As far as I know, he left Chicago on good terms.
Assuming the White Sox have interest, I’d be targeting center fielder Brian Anderson, who hasn’t done much in the big leagues but who has been a decent hitter (.293/.361/.474) in the minors. He is nothing special, but then, neither is Iguchi. We’re not looking for a savior here, just someone who can help plug a hole until Cedric Hunter is ready sometime in 2010.
I suspect the White Sox may be a better fit, although I’d rather find a way to get Reyes.
Talk to the Phillies, Astros, and Twins about Kouzmanoff
Kevin Kouzmanoff is a personal favorite of mine. I love the way he handled his poor start as a rookie and refused to get down on himself when things weren’t going well. That said, if the Padres can improve themselves in other areas, I have no problem moving him, especially with Chase Headley ready at Portland. The big question with Kouz is whether his perceived value might be too low because of his somewhat slow start (as Richard reminds us, his numbers are better now than they were at the same time last year).
The Phillies have Pedro Feliz at third base. He stinks. They also have Shane Victorino in center field. He and Kouzmanoff have similar contracts and should provide similar value. Philadelphia also has been giving Jayson Werth a lot of time in center, and aside from one memorable clank job against the Padres, he’s played well. I’m thinking the Phillies might be willing to fill a hole without creating another. Throw back a spare outfielder for a low-level prospect if needed. Or go bigger and try to include right-hander Carlos Carrasco in the deal.
(After initially coming up with this idea I bounced it off Eric Seidman, who is much more familiar with the Phillies than am I. He seemed to think they would be more interested in dealing Werth — no thanks — and that they aren’t prepared to give up on Feliz, who is signed through 2009. In other words, this may not be as good a fit as I originally thought.)
The Astros have Geoff Blum and Ty Wigginton. As a team, their third baseman are batting .215/.253/.323. There isn’t anyone on Houston’s big-league roster that could help the Padres, but down on the farm, right-handers Fernando Nieve and Bud Morris are somewhat intriguing. I don’t know much about either of these guys, but their numbers look good. According to Ben Badler at Baseball America, Morris throws in the low-90s but needs to refine his secondary pitches and may move to the bullpen. Houston gave up a boatload of prospects to get Miguel Tejada, and the system is a bit thin. I like the concept here, but I’m not sure there’s a good fit.
Up north, the Twins have Mike Lamb at third, but he’s more of a role player. Minnesota probably won’t want to take on salary, which should make Kouzmanoff an appealing option. The Twins have some talented but unproven youngsters at areas where the Padres need help, including right-hander Kevin Slowey (which is the worst name for a pitcher since Bob Walk), shortstop Trevor Plouffe, and center fielders Denard Span and Jason Pridie.
Slowey is a command specialist who probably fits into what the Padres like in a pitcher, though not necessarily what they need. He profiles as a back-end rotation option without much upside. Plouffe, who turns 22 next month, is a strong defensive shortstop whose bat has started to come around (.274/.326/.410 at Double-A in 2007, with slightly better numbers at the same level so far this year). This is a guy the Padres might want to target anyway, regardless of what they decide to do (or not do) with Khalil Greene — Pridie would give San Diego some insurance at the position and options further down the line should the club decide to move Greene or watch him walk away as a free agent after ‘09.
As for Span, he’s a toolsy guy who is hitting well (.327/.431/.471) at Triple-A but who hasn’t shown much of a bat in the past. Like Slowey, he is 24 years old. Pridie, who came over from Tampa Bay along with Delmon Young this past winter, is the same age as Span and was more highly regarded coming into the season — Baseball America ranked Pridie #6 among Twins prospects and compared him to ex-Padre Steve Finley — but he’s been brutal (.220/.271/.305 at Triple-A) so far in ‘08.
Of these possibilities, I like the way the Padres match up with Minnesota the best. I’m not sure how highly the Twins regard the prospects mentioned (especially Plouffe, who would seem to be the key to any deal), but this might be an area to explore. I’d at least want to be talking with these guys.
Talk to the Indians and Mets about Giles and/or Wolf
Because of Brian Giles‘ contract, any deal involving him is almost certain to include cash passing from the Padres to his new team. That said, there are potential suitors.
The Indians have Franklin Gutierrez in right field. Giles, who got his start in Cleveland, would represent a substantial upgrade. The Indians have several promising young pitchers, including Adam Miller, Ryan Miller, and David Huff. I don’t know how good (or available) they might be, but these are some names that stand out to me based on their numbers. Adam Miller once was considered a top prospect but has been slow to develop.
The Mets have Moises Alou in left field — Giles’ primary position before coming to San Diego. They also have a young left-hander who seems to have fallen out of favor (Oliver Perez), as well as some intriguing minor-league arms (Nicholas Carr, Angel Calero, among others). Perez won arbitration this past winter and is making $6.5 million in 2008. Wolf is cheaper and presumably less of a headache to the likes of Billy Wagner.
I’m guessing that the Padres wouldn’t have to pay as much of Giles’ salary in a deal involving Perez (because the Mets would be unloading a hefty contract of their own). It can be tough to get an accurate read on what’s really going on in New York because there’s always so much drama, but I’ve also heard that the Mets might be looking to move Aaron Heilman. I might suggest expanding a potential deal to include Heilman and Heath Bell, but judging from the latter’s first go-round with the Mets, that would be cruel.
Here, I like the Mets’ potential package a little better.
What I Would Do
Well, it’s really what I would attempt to do. Obviously the other teams involved have a say in all this…
- Trade Iguchi to the White Sox for Anderson (assuming the Cards balk at moving Reyes)
- Trade Kouzmanoff to the Twins for Plouffe, Slowey, and either Span or Pridie — possibly expanding the deal to include more players on both sides (I’m very uncertain of this move; there’s a lot of risk involved)
- Trade Giles, Wolf, and some amount of cash to the Mets for Oliver Perez and a minor-league arm
- Recall Headley and Antonelli (if he’s not ready, then go with Craig Stansberry or Edgar Gonzalez)
- Release Shawn Estes and Justin Germano (in fact, Germano was DFAd during the course of writing this post over several days), recall Josh Geer and Cesar Ramos
- Keep Greene — at least until Plouffe is ready
- Keep Greg Maddux — he won’t bring enough in return to offset the loss of his presence
So we now have a lineup that looks like this:
C: Josh Bard/Michael Barrett
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Antonelli/Stansberry/E-Gon
3B: Headley
SS: Greene (with Plouffe in minors)
LF: Paul McAnulty/Scott Hairston
CF: Anderson (with Span or Pridie in minors)
RF: Jody Gerut
Maybe one of McAnulty or Hairston emerges, maybe not. Whatever the case, Chad Huffman should be knocking on the door in spring 2009 anyway. Heck, if you’re feeling real crazy, you might even bring him up after the All-Star break.
Here’s the rotation:
Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Maddux
Perez
Geer/Ramos
Geer and Ramos look like marginal big-league pitchers to me, at best, but you might as well run ‘em out there and see what they can do. Once LeBlanc stops tipping his change-up, or whatever the heck his problem is, then you give him a more serious look. Same with Inman when he’s ready, probably mid-2009.
Concluding Thoughts
My suggestions may not be as radical as some people might like, but I don’t see a need to blow up the team based on the quaint notion that “48 games are more important than four seasons worth of games” (thanks to MB at Friar Forecast for expressing this sentiment more eloquently than I can). The important thing is to make incremental improvements and maintain a disciplined approach to whatever moves you end up making.
The problems with this team feel monumental because we’re experiencing them right now, but really this is just part of the cycle — well, unless you’re the Pirates — and things will get better. Not because of some magic pill or because anyone believes it will (ugh, please!), but because the management team in place has a proven track record of success. Does this mean they’ve never stumbled in the process? Well, you really don’t need to look further than the first third of this season to find your answer. But it also doesn’t mean they stumble all the time, or even most of the time.
It will be interesting to see what kinds of changes are in store for this team over the coming weeks and months. That’s the great thing about baseball: Even when the on-field product is scarcely worth mentioning (Thursday night’s power surge being a notable exception), there’s always something happening. Guess that’s why we keep coming back for more…
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May 23, 2008 at 8:01 am
Seems like a lot of work to not really get anything back….hey they would save everyone’s salary for the rest of the year right?
May 23, 2008 at 8:05 am
1. As much as I think Estes is doomed to failure, I wouldn’t release him. I’d rather have LeBlanc working on things in AAA than the majors. Estes can take those beatings for him. And if he somehow manages to have hitters smack balls right to his fielders for another 4 starts, maybe you get something for him.
2. Not sure Maddux’s return will be that low. Yes, he was traded for Izturis, but that was because the Cubs wanted Izturis. They saw him as an improvement over Cedeno. Izturis was, after all, an All-Star in 2005. He didn’t deserve to be, but he was what the Cubs wanted. Is it unrealistic to think Maddux would net Lillibridge from the Braves? I’d gladly trade 3 months of Mad Dog’s intangibles for a possible solution at shortstop.
May 23, 2008 at 8:13 am
I can’t process this yet, but — I think the Marlins are a great trade partner. They are contending, need a third baseman, and could use some depth in the rotation (Wolf/Maddux).
Not sure what’s in their system, but it’s another place to explore.
May 23, 2008 at 8:19 am
#1@Mark Ase: True, except for the bit about not really getting anything back.
#2@Tom Waits: If they can get something for Estes, by all means they should do so, but I just don’t see it happening. If Maddux would fetch Lillibridge, that’d probably be worth doing. I did explore a Lillibridge scenario at some point but dropped it along the way because… well, I can’t remember why. I’ve actually been working on this piece for about a week and it’s changed a bazillion times. That’s why Slowey doesn’t show up in the final rotation. And I agree that there’s no need to rush LeBlanc. He should remain at Portland until he gets back on track.
May 23, 2008 at 8:25 am
#3@Alan: Not sure if we have enough to get any of them, but Florida does have a lot of arms in AA. Probably a pipe dream, but if they were sufficiently desperate Gaby Hernandez might be an option.
May 23, 2008 at 8:29 am
#4@Geoff Young: Yeah, I don’t see him getting a live human back, but I’d still rather have him absorbing the body blows than LeBlanc, or, worse, Inman.
May 23, 2008 at 8:36 am
#6@Tom Waits: Goodness, absolutely not Inman. That’s why we have guys like Geer and Ramos.
May 23, 2008 at 8:36 am
No deal for a real left fielders, Georff? There has got to be a guy who can hit for average and play LF somewhere in baseball.
May 23, 2008 at 8:37 am
From today’s UT…
A few Padres players find it strange that Towers recently sounded off about their effort and baserunning, attempting to heighten the players’ sense of urgency, yet the front office appears passive about promoting Headley. As for the environment Headley would enter, several players have said veterans such as Trevor Hoffman, Brian Giles and Greg Maddux excel at reducing pressure.
May 23, 2008 at 8:43 am
#8@PM: Yeah, there are plenty of those guys. Headley would be one if Kouz isn’t moved. Huffman is also an option, though possibly not this year.
#9@Coronado Mike: I’ve noticed of late a strange media obsession with Headley. It seems folks have gotten it into their heads that he’ll be some kind of savior and he should be promoted immediately regardless of how it might affect his development, the team, etc. If the front office “appears passive,” I’d submit that others appear “overly eager.” When Headley’s time comes, he’ll be here (or elsewhere) and probably stick around a while.
May 23, 2008 at 8:44 am
#9@Coronado Mike: Urine on the leg of a rookie is a proven cure for pressure.
May 23, 2008 at 8:47 am
#11@Tom Waits: I would punch Maddog squre in the nose if he did that to me…rookie or not.
That is just wrong on so many levels…and this is coming from a guy who has been known for a prank or 3 in his life…just don’t pee on my leg.
May 23, 2008 at 8:49 am
#10@Geoff Young: I actually think holding down Headley right now is a great call, given that the media is overly infatuated with him at this point.
May 23, 2008 at 8:56 am
#12@Coronado Mike:
I would be honored if MadDog saw it fit to honor me with a golden shower. That’s just me though.
I actually saw him at the coffee shop across the street from my work downtown on tuesday. Maybe next time i’ll build up the courage to ask him to haze me.
May 23, 2008 at 9:00 am
#12@Coronado Mike: Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 23, 2008 at 9:02 am
#13@Phantom:
Me too! I think everyone is really expecting way too much from him. Not that I don’t think that he will be able to cut it but I think the average SDUT reader or SD sports talk radio fan thinks this kid is going to be our Justin Upton or Ryan Braun and that’s just really not who Chase is going to be.
The Padres seem that they also have some final evaluations to make on Hairston, Huber and P-Mac if they really are going to make whole-sale changes like they say. If Headley comes up to play left I imagine he plays there every night for the rest of the season.
May 23, 2008 at 9:08 am
I’d hang on to Estes as well. If he can string together some decent starts I guarantee KT can put on his sludge merchant hat and move him to a wannabe contender around the trade deadline for something, which is more than we get if he’s released. If he sucks it doesn’t matter, we’re not going to contend anyway.
A commenter at Gaslamp Ball last night mentioned there’s a Randy Wolf for T Gwynn Jr rumor going around Milwaukee. Bringing in Jr would be one way to get the spotlight off Headley.
May 23, 2008 at 9:09 am
Awe, don’t trade Giles…He’s my favorite player…
May 23, 2008 at 9:23 am
These are decent suggestions, but really they will just result in more boring, vanilla Padres baseball, only they’ll win like 5 more games a year.
Bold Prediction: Headley and Antonelli are WAY overhyped and will end up sucking.
“From the farm system that brought you Sean Burroughs and George Arias…”
May 23, 2008 at 9:24 am
#17@Anthony: “Now in centerfield, Sacrificial Lamb!”
May 23, 2008 at 9:26 am
Lets be honest here…..
We finally have an infield (minues 2B) that we can have around for several years. I think screwing with that now will create the rotating door we’ve been in since the days of Wally-Ball, Quilvio, Gomez & Caminiti.
The Padres are in a weird state right now and the poor play is only accentuating the “Get them out of here” mentality.
There are untouchables on this team in my opinion. My list:
Peavy, Gonzalez, Greene, Kouz, Young & Bell.
These are the core guys that you can add to and win NL West Pennants with.
Also, I have a dump immediately list:
Iguchi, McAnulty, Huber & Clark.
Those ‘Dump’ guys are taking up places on the bench where either younger guys could be getting time or learning from guys like Giles and Maddux. We’ve seen what the dump guys can do already this year and the result is nothing. Mediocre play from mediocre players. You may be asking where Hairston is in all of this and you would be right. However Hairston seems to know when to hit a timely homerun. Does that make him worth what the core players are….no, but his pop would be great giving guys the day off.
I agree with Mark that it appears that this scenario you have come up with Geoff is a lot of work for such little return. Especially with the Twins trade. I’m home-based here in the Twin Cities (after being transplanted from my San Diego home) and although Slowey and others look decent as a trade prospect I would pass.
May 23, 2008 at 9:27 am
I can’t wait to see how the Padres waste their first round pick in the draft this year.
“Wanted: control artist who’s fastball tops out in the mid 80’s, has a history of shoulder or elbow problems and will sign for a bag of peanuts”
May 23, 2008 at 9:28 am
MinnesotaMo, I like your “Dump List”
CrackAnulty and HuberStank need to go.
May 23, 2008 at 9:39 am
#21@MinnesotaMo: I respectfully submit a couple of numbers…
.320 –> .291 –> .269
That is KG’s OBP over the past 3 years…descending. Not a good trend.
His D has consistantly inproved, but a guy that makes outs at that type of pace is not an “untouchable”.
May 23, 2008 at 9:41 am
#21@MinnesotaMo:
Greene is only signed through 2009. He seems unlikely to resign here since Petco hurts his game so much, but he’s not your average bear, so maybe he does.
With Headley at 3b, the infield stays together longer, plays better defense, and probably hits better. I haven’t seen anyone who wants to “dump” Kouz, but if you can address other needs by moving him, it’s much smarter than playing Headley in LF.
What’s the alternative to making those trades? Playing .500 ball if we’re lucky the rest of the season, getting a worse draft pick in 2009, watching Maddux and Wolf move elsewhere (or possibly worse, accept arbitration), paying Giles 3 million to go away?
May 23, 2008 at 9:42 am
Two things of interest in Jason Stark’s latest column…
1. Grab your shopping carts: As the frustration mounts in San Diego, it’s looking more and more likely that the Padres could kick off their clearance sale any week now. The guy at the top of quite a few shopping lists figures to be Brian Giles, the Padres’ OPS leader. An official of one club that has spoken with San Diego went as far as to predict a Giles trade is “likely.” But hang on. Giles can block a trade to eight teams, and his $9 million option for next year automatically becomes an $11 million option (or $3 million buyout) if he’s traded. Plus, his exit would leave this team with just about zero offense from its outfield. “No,” one baseball man said, laughing. “Without him, they’d have no offense, period.”
2. The Royals would seem more likely to trade a relief pitcher or two than a position player before the deadline. But one Royals regular about whom we’re starting to hear other teams speculate is center fielder David DeJesus. GM Dayton Moore told Rumblings that at this stage in the Royals’ development, “we’ll evaluate anything.” But though Moore won’t talk specifically about any potential deal, he did say, “David DeJesus is a guy you can win with.” Also, DeJesus’ contract is so club-friendly (with salaries of $3.6 million, $4.7 million and $6 million through 2011), the Royals would need to get a spectacular offer to persuade them to move one of their more consistent players.
May 23, 2008 at 9:45 am
Guy on Jeff & Dave this morning brought up a great point. When you’re trading vets making the kind of $$$ that Giles and Maddux do, the level of prospeect you get in return depends on how much of that players’ salary the Padres are willing to pay upon trade.
If Moores offers to pay like 80% of Mad Dog’s 10 million a year contract and trade him to a contender, then we might get a good young player in return. But how likely is THAT to happen??
May 23, 2008 at 9:47 am
#16@KRS1: I have posted comments at the UT stating that I am concerned about Headleys strikeouts. I get a lot of responses from people calling me a Padre hater etc. One poster was comparing Headley to David Wright.
I dont know where this comes from. Talk radio, UT, Mad Friar, KT, Padres Website ?????
There is a good sized chunk of fans who believe the farm system is loaded with talent.
May 23, 2008 at 9:48 am
#27@Dave H: That’s not always true. It depends on how well the veteran player is doing. There are a lot of trades in which fairly expensive players move without money being involved. But it is true that sometimes the unloading team will “buy” a prospect by including some cash.
May 23, 2008 at 9:53 am
I’d sooner trade Maddux back to the Cubs to acquire Felix Pie or maybe Eric PAtterson if we’re lucky then most of those other moves. I don’t think the Cubs are really interested in keeping Pie because A) they made two FA moves to push Pie way back in the depth chart, of which one was frakking Edmonds, B) They haven’t given Pie much of a chance to play and work himself out of the hitting slump and C) the Cubs had been successful with marquis/dempster/etc but they don’t feel confident that that trend will continue.
May 23, 2008 at 9:54 am
Good point Tom, if a guy is hot it’s definately a lot easier to move him.
Giles has been hitting well lately, but at this point he’s still probably not in real high demand…
May 23, 2008 at 9:58 am
Loren, sad to say but the Cubs can probably do a lot better than trading Pie for Maddux.
I think the guy they need to look at trading is Randy Wolf. He’s been pitching well, eating innings and it would be a good idea to get some value before his arm falls off at the break.
May 23, 2008 at 10:03 am
#19@Dave H: Thanks for posting. I look forward to hearing your alternative suggestions on how to improve the team.
#28@parlo: David Wright? As in, the guy who plays for the Mets? That’s just asinine.
May 23, 2008 at 10:08 am
#21@MinnesotaMo: Thanks for posting. It’s funny: I’ve actually heard from one pretty smart baseball guy (not a Twins fan) who wouldn’t trade Slowey straight up for Kouz. Go figure…
May 23, 2008 at 10:09 am
#33@Geoff Young: I assume your response to Dave H was sarcasm, given his mean-spirited posts in this thread. Thanks for taking the time to do this task, and, even if I am not sure your proposed trades are viable, at least a good amount of thought is put into them. It is what makes this blog so much better than talk radio callers and UT article writers and comments sections. Cheers.
May 23, 2008 at 10:10 am
28: Headley = Wright from all the hypes on the radio. The more these talkies are talking the better Headley seems. The thing is these talkies are slumming for anything. There is not reason Headley should come up now. Part of these if the FO fault of trying to sell the public on the current state of the farm system as some players are buying into this hype as well.
May 23, 2008 at 10:16 am
Geoff, thanks for your response. The one guy I do like in your proposals is Brain Anderson, I think he’s a nice young player if we can get him.
The one intriguing guy in the farm system right now (and he has been mentioned on here before):
Will Veneble. Shouldn’t they be looking at this guy for possible center fielder, he’s been pretty hot this year?
May 23, 2008 at 10:16 am
Geoff, good thought process.
The only one that I’d hesitate to do is actually the deal that would make the most sense, with the Twins. I, too, have heard that Slowey and Pridie are not as good as expected. Denard Span, on the other hand, I don’t see how the Twins are going to part with. From what I heard from my Twins fans, Span’s very good.
May 23, 2008 at 10:19 am
I’m a *huge* fan of Will Carroll’s health and injury reporting at Baseball Prospectus … and, lucky for Padre fans, today’s entry is free for all …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=7568
Clearly the Padres (with Jake and CY and Bard recently doing on the DL) are getting top billing in his recent reports. He links to some very good articles which go in depth on Jake’s status.
This is MUST READ.
May 23, 2008 at 10:27 am
#35@The Fathers: Thanks, much appreciated. Actually, I’ve seen a couple new names on here this morning and I’m trying to get them involved in the conversation. The more, the merrier, especially if they bring something new to the table. I have a certain way of thinking about things and other people will see things that I miss. It’s a good way to learn, not to mention just chat with other passionate Padre fans.
#37@Dave H: Venable doesn’t excite me much. He’s 24 years old, and his power and strike-zone judgment aren’t great. Seems more like a fourth outfielder to me.
#38@Didi: Yeah, I’m very uncertain about the Twins idea. I’m also getting the impression from people I’ve talked to who don’t follow the Padres closely that Kouz’s perceived value is way down right now. Whether that extends to the front offices of other teams, I don’t know, but he might be a better guy to hold right now, especially if folks seriously believe Headley is the new Wright. Good Lord, someone needs to educate these people.
May 23, 2008 at 10:31 am
#17@Anthony: I would do a Randy Wolf for Tony Gwynn, Jr . trade in a second. BUT, if they are afraid of putting too much pressure on Chase Headley, I doubt they would want to bring in the son of the greatest player San Diego will ever see. That would be tremendous pressure, in the eyes of the FO anyways.
Funny thing happened after Kouz and Khalil hit those bombs yesterday. I woke up today and decided I didn’t want either of those guys traded…. at least for now. I mean, how many shortstops can hit the ball in the 2nd deck with such ease? And how many players in baseball can hit a line-drive out of Petco to right-center? Yesterday was a reminder of how much potential our left side of the infield has and how much they have underachieved this season.
May 23, 2008 at 10:35 am
OT … the Cardinals / Pujols perspective on the events of Wed night …
http://tinyurl.com/3uxa94
May 23, 2008 at 10:36 am
#37@Dave H: Well, that’s a strange set of judgments, when Brian Anderson is looked at as a prize. He’s already 26 and has failed just as spectacularly, in a much longer trial, than McAnulty and Huber. He can play some defense, and I wouldn’t mind giving him a shot, but I have the feeling that if he was a Padre farmhand he’d be on your “dumped” or “overhyped” list.
They are looking at Venable in CF, because his bat isn’t likely to play anywhere else. The question is, does he have the glove for it?
#40@Geoff Young: (re 38): That’s definitely something the front office has to consider. Kouz, even if it turns out that he’s not what we want as an everyday 3b, can still do some things. It makes no sense to trade him for 25 cents on the dollar. But we don’t need 100 cents on the dollar, either.
May 23, 2008 at 10:38 am
Last night’s game was a huge cheer-me-up … but so is making some nice 8×10 prints of these pics taken by a Padres team photographer and posted on Friar John’s blog …
http://tinyurl.com/3nalgf
http://tinyurl.com/4hkhdh
BOMBS AWAY!!!
May 23, 2008 at 10:42 am
Another good point Tom, Anderson was a flop in Chi-town; what I didn’t realize he is 26 already.
Guess I’m just grasping for straws with Veneble here, you never know when a guy gets playing time. I know they are completely different players but look at what’s happened now that Jack Custs has been given a shot.
May 23, 2008 at 10:53 am
I’m with you on trading Kouz especially to get a CF or pitching, but unless you want Edgar Gonzalez as your everyday 2b - I wouldn’t trade Iguchi. The offense is bad now, without Giles it has trouble competing in the Texas League.
Calling up Antonelli and especially Stansberry would be a serious mistake. I sympathize with people who want change, but I really don’t think there are that many trades and calling guys up from AAA who are hitting barely over .200, or below in Antonelli’s case, doesn’t seem to be the best plan.
Also Geer with an ERA of 4.85 and Ramos is even worse at might need a little more seasoning. Although I would look to call up Hayhurst.
Actually if you are really looking to shake things up Inman and Huffman, after Headley may be the best candidates for a callup.
May 23, 2008 at 10:58 am
Isn’t Oliver Perez a free agent in 09? Is that idea based on Ollie signing an extension with the Pads?
May 23, 2008 at 10:59 am
#39@LynchMob: He mentions CY coming back “Rip Hamilton Style”…wondering if a pitcher would be allowed to wear a face mask…They can’t have shiny jewelery, have batting gloves in their pockets, or have anything that distracts the hitters.
I am guessing that a lot of players/managers would object to CY coming out with a plastic mask over his nose. If I am in a pennant chase and come up against a pitcher like CY, you better believe I am complaining to the ump that the glare off his face mask is distracting.
May 23, 2008 at 11:03 am
#38@Didi: If another team’s front office thinks Headley is the next David Wright then I am all for trading him…NOW.
But since he is not really seen that way, I do not advocate that type of move.
May 23, 2008 at 11:03 am
Personally I’m not huge on trading Kouz right now. He’s proving himself as an everyday major leaguer, and giving him up for a B or C level pitching prospect who may or may not pan out seems a bit counterproductive.
Headley can play left.
May 23, 2008 at 11:17 am
#45@Dave H: It’s contradictory to say “Look at what Cust has done” and then claim that McAnulty and Huber are clearly worthless. Before he busted out last year, Cust had struggled to establish himself. He started this year very slowly (669 OPS in April). McAnulty and Huber may never be productive major leaguers, but we don’t know that yet. McAnulty hasn’t struggled any more than Kouz did to start last year.
#46@John Conniff: I don’t want to shake things up. I want the 2009-11 Padres to have the best possible chance to succeed. So I’d trade almost anyone who didn’t fit that plan, if they brought back a sufficient reward. We might be better off keeping Giles and picking up his option than trading him. But I wouldn’t rush Inman, and I’d be fine with anyone at 2b. Probably Egone because it makes a nice story.
#48@Coronado Mike: Paint it a matte flesh tone.
#47@Dalton: I thought you’d be bigger. Roadhouse, baby!
May 23, 2008 at 11:25 am
#26@Coronado Mike: This
“baseball insider”’s comment really irks. Agon is 4th in the league in homers and 2nd in the league in RBIs. How’s that for some offense??
May 23, 2008 at 11:26 am
#50@Dave H: Nobody’s huge on trading Kouz, but if you get enough for him to make the team better, it’s smart.
We’ve seen what substandard outfield defense can do. I’d much rather have Headley at his best position and let Huffman play LF in 09.
May 23, 2008 at 11:27 am
#52@Marsh: I bet a lot of his RBIs consist of Giles scoring.
May 23, 2008 at 11:27 am
I really haven’t wanted to trade Kouz regardless because he’s one of the only players we have with the power to really hit the ball. Heck his last two HRs have been to the deepest part of the park, and he did it without too much difficulty. I stated this for a while; a Headley-Gonzo-Kouz-Greene at 3-6 gives us a hell of a lot of power in the middle. So I can take some defensive butchering in return for the ability to take the ball out even in Petco.
As far as deal goes, unless I get something that blows me away, and Geoff’s offer did not, I’m not trading Kouz. I’d still talk with the Yankees about Bard and Maddux, maybe to get one of their 3-4 good outfield prospects (obviously not Tabata but they have some other guys). Wolf is improving his value bit by bit, I wonder if we couldn’t make a trade with Wolf, Hairston and maybe a pitcher (Ramos?) for Shane Victorino. Phils are thinking long and hard about clearing Victorino out and he’d be a vast improvement in CF.
May 23, 2008 at 11:29 am
#51@Tom Waits: I agree on making the ‘09-’11 Padres the best they can be but I think calling up guys that aren’t ready or players that shouldn’t be there in the first place isn’t the answer.
Right now I’m inclined to keep Giles for another year while hopefully Headley and Huffman develop in their half and full rookie seasons. Part ot me still thinks Antonelli is going to pull out of his slump, but we’ll see.
LeBlanc has the most upside in Portland but right now his problem is trying to throw a change that looks like his two-seamer, which he is having difficulty controlling. When he doesn’t have it, guys sit on it and pound him. I like Geer, but he’s still getting hit pretty hard in AAA.
May 23, 2008 at 11:30 am
Couple of thoughts. Trading for Oliver Perez does not make much sense given he will be a free agent at the end of the year and will be demanding too much for the Padres. Seems like there is a little bit of the Giles trade hangover being involved in that scenario, maybe the Padres can work a three way deal and get Jason Bay as well.:-) I would like to see the Padres potentially explore getting a guy like a Jeremy Reed from the Mariners, potentially for Blanks who does not look to have much of a future in SD and could fit into the plans for the Mariners. Reed has the potential to turn into more of a player than Brian Anderson based on his track record.
Also there seems to be a lot of scenarios involving Padres trading position players for pitching, which does not fill the offensive holes the Padres have. The Padres are always going to be able to attract starting pitching so I think the emphasis should be on getting positional players with team control.
I would keep Kouz going into next year playing Headley in left. If Huffman does force the issue and creates a log jam you then have the option of trading one of the Kouz, Headley, or Huffman, ideally at a lot higher value then where they are at now. You don’t lose anything by waiting and holding Kouz, if he emerges and starts putting up big numbers then you have a real chip if you decide to got that route.
May 23, 2008 at 11:31 am
#55@Loren: IMO, I think people focus too much on Kouzs power.
274BA, 303 OBP, 398SLG, 90 OPS+, 4BB, 38K
There are a lot of offensive liabilities in his numbers.
May 23, 2008 at 11:32 am
#52@Marsh: That could be Stark talking to Steve Phillips.
May 23, 2008 at 11:39 am
Huge fan of the Denard Span idea, Geoff. Young, underproducing at the majors but a good minor track record with time and ability to improve.
Those are the risks we need to take.
May 23, 2008 at 11:42 am
#58 Parlo
I won’t deny there’s liabilities there but he’s been the second best hitter on the Pads for two years, and though people focus alot of Kouz’s power, its primarily because in Petco we’ve been power starved. He has flaws in his game yes, but I think his potential and what he’s been able to do over the last two years makes him a component you don’t want to trade cheap. But if you want to trade him away I agree with #57; let the prospects force the issue and trade from a place of strength
May 23, 2008 at 11:42 am
OK, you all have “nailed” me on this stuff.
Really, I think one thing we can all agree on is that Padres fans should be VERY skeptical about any minor leaguers they claim will come up and make an impact (i.e. Antonelli and Headley). Who have they developed in the past say, 10 years?
1) Peavy (LOL, remember Tankersly was supposed to be better?)
2) Khalil (whom I kind of like, despite the major offensive holes in his game and extreme hot/cold tendencies.)
I can’t think of any others, please help me if I’ve left anybody significant out. Eaton, Yong, Gonzalez, Kouz, all trades from other teams (and pretty good ones, lets give them some credit).
Point is, there must be something going with regards to their poor player development. Arias me once shame on you, Burroughs me twice shame on me…
May 23, 2008 at 11:43 am
People who are focusing on Kouz’ prouduction are somewhat missing the point.
We have two hitters who can play third and can probably hit well enough to play third, maybe even be special at it. Moving either to LF weakens their value to the team and in a trade.
Trading one is a good idea if you can get value back at a position of need.
So it’s between Headley and Kouzmanoff. Given KK’s splits, Headley’s accepted status as a better defender, I’d take my chances with Chase and see what I could get for Kouz.
But trading Headley shouldn’t be off the table either.
May 23, 2008 at 11:45 am
#55@Loren: Kouz has power, but right now he’s also got Khalil’s strike zone judgment. He walked in the minors, so it’s not necessarily permanent, but runs are directly related to getting on base. I’d take his defense, too, if his OBP was around 330 and his power returned full-time. But it’s not as if Headley lacks power, and he gives you a better eye at the plate and improved defense.
#56@John Conniff: Yeah, I wouldn’t call up anybody who isn’t ready. I’d call up guys I don’t much care about. Geer, Ramos, Venable, Stansberry.
#57@CW: I like Reed. But free agent pitching costs money; even Wolf is set to make 7 million. Besides, we’re not actually that strong in the pitching department. 3 of the last 4 years the lack of depth in the rotation has hurt us badly.
#58@parlo: Those strikeout / walk numbers are the most worrying part. Strikeouts don’t bother me if you’ll take a free pass.
May 23, 2008 at 11:47 am
#61@Loren: No, he hasn’t. The second best hitter on the Padres now is Brian Giles, who has been almost as productive as Agon (way more OBP, far less power). Giles was just as good as Kouz last year. Jenga (Bradley) was actually the best overall hitter, but in such a short period it shouldn’t count.
May 23, 2008 at 11:49 am
Why do people bring up George Arias? It’s like folks who are skeptical of Headley are only reading press clippings and acting like there isn’t more information out there.
Arias was verbally hyped, but wasn’t any kind of real prospect that I remember. The system was barren and Towers was doing his usual hype job.
Burroughs never developed power. Simple as that — and then began to try to compensate for it and screwed himself up. A valid comment. But Arias isn’t comparable to Headley.
The Chipper Jones comments on Headley are a joke. And people should be concerned about his K rate. But he’s not George Arias.
May 23, 2008 at 11:50 am
Alan
Here’s teh problem - I think both are undervalued at this point.
Kouz is undervalued because he plays for the Padres, is somewhat (or is) bad at 3B, and doesn’t have the sexy 3B power numbers
Headley’s undervalued because he’s coming out of the Padres system which hasn’t produced any really good hitters in a long time and because every team that wants him offers to give up crap for him (Nate McLouth, Luke Scott, Coco Crisp)
So yeah we have two guys who can hit at 3B and can be special but since neither have set the world on fire non of them are going to fetch big prospects.
May 23, 2008 at 11:52 am
#62@Dave H: Oh, we should absolutely be skeptical. I think you’ll find DSers as a group are fairly wary of the minor league and drafting strategy of the Padres.
May 23, 2008 at 11:52 am
#66-Alan
The Chipper Jones comments on Headley are a joke. And people should be concerned about his K rate. But he’s not George Arias.
Agreed, it’s not fair to base our opinions of Headley based on past failures at 3rd base.
Geoff, maybe you can answer this, what kind of numbers project to in the majors? If it’s something like .275 average, 12 homers, .350 OBP then you’ll have forgive me for not doing backflips over the guy…
May 23, 2008 at 11:54 am
#62@Dave H: Ollie and X Nady should also be in that list, if memory serves.
May 23, 2008 at 11:57 am
#62@Dave H: You can’t just write that because Burroughs didn’t pan out that everyone else will be the same.
Also Burroughs was good at what he did in the minors, he could put the bat on the ball and had exceptional hand eye coordination. The problem was too many pundits were predicting that he would hit for much more power than he ever showed in the minors. If the Padres had realized what they had - a guy with potentially some gap power that could develop into a good #2 hitter behind a leadoff man like Dave Roberts - instead of trying to covert him into a power hitter then a leadoff man, it might have gone better for both parties.
Usually if someone hits at AA or above, they will hit in the majors. Pitching is a little different - but with a club with SD’s resources, you have to build through the minors.
May 23, 2008 at 11:57 am
#68 Tom-Oh, we should absolutely be skeptical. I think you’ll find DSers as a group are fairly wary of the minor league and drafting strategy of the Padres.
That’s good to know, as I am fairly new to these boards. It’s just a very frustrating franchise to be a fan of. I mean as bad as the Rays have been they spent time signing good, talented athletes (yes, ATHLETES) and developing them. Fans have gotten to grow with guys like Crawford and Kazmir, and now they are competetive.
SD just has a revolving door of band-aid solutions it seems like (at least Jake, A-Gone, Young and Khalil have/will be mainstays). Plus the uniforms are atrocious.
May 23, 2008 at 11:59 am
#64@Tom Waits: No offense Tom and to use a cliche, that is just shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic -especially with Stansberry and Ramos.
I don’t like Venable in CF - but others have told me he’s been playing well out there. I think Geer could develop, but he needs a full year in AAA.
May 23, 2008 at 11:59 am
#70 Phantom- Ollie and X Nady should also be in that list, if memory serves.
For sure. Nady I guess served his purpose in us getting Cameron for a bit.
May 23, 2008 at 12:05 pm
#73@John Conniff: Oh, it is shuffling chairs around, no question. But what’s missing is that by moving the veterans, you’re getting new chairs. Those new chairs might be better than the furniture which is allowed to ride the HMS 2008 San Diego Padres Baseball Season into the cold, dark sea.
If we can get B- pitching prospect for Iguchi, and what it costs us in 2008 is having Edgar Gonzalez play 2b for 75 games, it’s worth it. Iguchi’s not here next year anyway. Kouz and Giles are different because we can keep them if we want, and their trade value may not be high enough to justify a move. Maddux is somewhat in that same lifeboat.
May 23, 2008 at 12:09 pm
#64@Tom Waits: The K/BB ratio drives me bananas! There are too many players like that on this team.
I dont mind one, maybe two, but this lineup has numerous players with those type of numbers. (granted, not as bad as KK, but KG isnt far behind). I think the entire offensive culture needs to change. If young players are coming in, there shouldnt be a group of established players with such poor discipline.
May 23, 2008 at 12:12 pm
#60@Alan: Agree on Span. He shouldn’t be the primary return unless the trade doesn’t involve Kouz, but we should try for him.
May 23, 2008 at 12:15 pm
#74@Dave H: But your entire point was that the system hasn’t produced anyone in the 10 years. Whether or not they benefitted our team or another through trade is irrelevant. The fact remains that there ARE people who have been developed through our system.
This is OT, but does anyone know when Carillo should be going again? I seem to remember thinking that he should start showing up around summer and it’s almost June.
May 23, 2008 at 12:15 pm
#76@parlo: It’s a hard thing to predict, because Kouz had decent (not great) walk numbers in the minors.
If the org. stresses one thing to its minor league hitters, it’s plate discipline. We’ll have to see if the lessons are sufficient, or if outwaiting minor league pitchers isn’t adequate training for he majors.
May 23, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Boy you really have to be on this all day to keep pace….wow!
#25 @ Tom Waits: You can’t argue with the numbers, you are absolutely right. KG makes outs. However I disagree that his offense makes him expendable to some degree. My point is his defense covers up some of the faults in his plate appearances and saves runs from being scored. Not to mention, can you name a shortstop that you can plug in for the same money with the same defensive skills and the pop he carries. I have MLB Extra Innings and have to listen to the visiting broadcasts daily (I miss Matty and Mud) and the one player they talk about constantly is KG. Not to mention he is a homer….one the Padres actually got right. I don’t care what any of you say, that makes a difference to me.
Not to be the pessimist but many are hanging the future of third base or left field on a guy that has yet to prove to himself at this level. Before someone mentioned him, I was greatful to have forgotten the name George Arias….ICK. I have no doubt Headley exceeds the actual playing ability of Burroughs and Arias, but lets not let the ‘quick fix’ de-rail the good core team we’ve put together. I should also mention that if they do bring Headley up (which contrary to KT’s belief) I think is a good idea, I hope he plays left and proves the apprehensive side of me wrong.
May 23, 2008 at 1:16 pm
#31@Dave H: The only rightfielder having a better season than Giles is Ludwick.
#36@Didi: Headley really doesn’t seem ready. His peripherals just aren’t good right now. He’s striking out too much still, isn’t walking enough now, and he seems to have left some of his power in San Antonio.
#46@John Conniff: I honestly don’t get the fascination with the hyperbole of “this team couldn’t compete at [insert minor league level].” Nobody really believes that. Do they?
#53@Tom Waits: I think we should all be against trading anyone if it doesn’t make the team better. I think it’s funny that we feel the need to say, “I only want to trade player x if it makes us better.” Well, duh.
#56@John Conniff: I agree that we’re probably going to be best off not trading Giles. Assuming we plan to compete in ‘09, I don’t think we’re going to get anyone likely to be better than Giles next season.
#58@parlo: IMO, it makes some sense to look at this year’s numbers in the context of last year’s splits and realize he’s hitting better this year than last.
#62@Dave H: There’s a new front office in place, so it’s hard to hang the last ten years on them when Headley/Antonelli are really their first draft class.
#65@Tom Waits: The second best hitter on this team is Gonzalez, actually. Giles is our best hitter.
#78@Phantom: Yeah, about 16 players who have played in the Majors this year. That’s four fewer than any other team in baseball and about 27 fewer than th Dodgers.
May 23, 2008 at 1:28 pm
#80@MinnesotaMo: Greene absolutely saves runs with defense. But that has nothing to do with our ability to “keep the infield together for a long time.” He’s only signed through 2009.
As for SS who can produce at his price range….Jack Wilson had as many Win Shares last year, which was Khalil’s peak so far. Jason Bartlett had almost as many.
Clearly, those two don’t have Greene’s upside. But Greene’s upside may never happen. His peak may be a league-average hitter with good defense at a premium defensive position, and that’s good to have. But it’s not irreplaceable. Jeff Blauser and Geg Gagne weren’t irreplaceable.
May 23, 2008 at 1:30 pm
If Kouz is traded and Headley goes back to third I have no confidence in this organization’s ability to field a decent left fielder. For a position that’s supposed to be easy to fill with a productive bat, the Padres sure do seem to have a knack for running crappy retreads out there. I could see us with Jay Payton or Shannon Stewart or something out there if Kouz is shipped out.
Actually, at this point why not sign Bonds and just go with the freak show?
I’ve heard a lot of theorizing that Adrian’s batting average has slipped because he’s trying to do too much but I think the pressure could also be affecting Kouz. He may be chasing pitches in an attempt to be more aggressive and avoid the same kind of slump he had last year.
May 23, 2008 at 1:31 pm
#81@Richard Wade: In regards to your comments about trading someone only if it makes us better.
The FO may not be thinking that way. If they can cut the payroll 30% and still remain a last place team, they may choose to do so. Cutting payroll also frees up money for future endeavors. Then there is the short term gain vs long term gain considerations. What a player could provide in 2011 vs what Giles or Kouz is worth now.
If the FO starts trading, it is not to improve this years team, or even next years. I think this is going to be a rebuilding process of several years.
May 23, 2008 at 1:36 pm
#81@Richard Wade:
53. But apparently, we do.
65: Yeah, you like wOBA, don’t you? I was just going off OPS+.
May 23, 2008 at 1:39 pm
#84@parlo: Disagree. I don’t think the front office punts 2009. It’s hard to see them going all-out to win, but they’re going to be hunting for players in AA or AAA, High A if they can’t do better. Their trades seem far more likely to be aimed at:
1. Near-future (2009-10) upside
2. Long-term upside
3. Immediate cost savings
May 23, 2008 at 1:45 pm
#81 Dick Wade-There’s a new front office in place, so it’s hard to hang the last ten years on them when Headley/Antonelli are really their first draft class.
My statement was more an indicment of their minor league developmental system than the current front office.
Although Alderson and the “new” front office have made quite a case against themselves already, wasting a pick on Nick Schmidt last year.
May 23, 2008 at 1:47 pm
#83 Anthony-Actually, at this point why not sign Bonds and just go with the freak show?
I like this idea. It would make my 9 dollar Petco beer that much more entertaining and enjoyable.
May 23, 2008 at 1:55 pm
#78@Phantom: According to DePodesta’s blog, Carillo is pitching in extended spring training.
May 23, 2008 at 2:08 pm
#81 Wade-The only rightfielder having a better season than Giles is Ludwick.
Actually, there’s a guy who’s hit 7 homers with more runs and RBI than Giles and has a .388 OBP.
X Nady ring a bell? Giles is playing well this year, but let’s face it, nobody else in the majors wants to trade for this guy unless he is on roids.
May 23, 2008 at 2:17 pm
#89@Field39: Thanks. I was curious to know what’s going on with him. Any chance we see him this year?
May 23, 2008 at 2:18 pm
#90@Dave H: But you’re leaving out the fact that Giles is having a wonderful year while playing in the vaccum that is Petco Park. PNC is by no means a hitters paradise (pretty neutral, I think), but the numbers Giles has put up this year look damn good in the context of the park he’s playing in.
May 23, 2008 at 2:20 pm
I think that the Padres should look to trade Khalil to the Angels who have a huge hole at SS. Their bullpen is also a little weak. Maybe Greene and Heath Bell is enough to get Juan Rivera and maybe one of their SS prospects — probably not Brandon Wood but maybe Sean Rodriguez.
May 23, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Phantom, Giles doesn’t really hit for power anymore anyways; you could argue that Petco actually HELPS him by spreading out the outfielders more to make more room for his singles.
Just a thought, but I do see your logic, and would agree with it in most cases.
May 23, 2008 at 2:32 pm
#93@Schlom: I’m not sure how much of a hole they really have at SS. If I remember right, they’ve been getting decent production from Izturis and Aybar (who’s currently hurt).
I wouldn’t do Bell & KG for just Rivera and someone else. If I’m doing Bell and KG, I’m expecting a frontline starter in return. Now, I would do Bell and KG for Saunders and Willits. But I don’t know that would ever happen.
May 23, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Trade Bell now while he has value. Look what happened to Linebrink, we held onto him for too long and got lesser caliber prospects when we finally ended up ditching him…
May 23, 2008 at 2:40 pm
#46@John Conniff: I’d be okay with Edgar Gonzalez at second base in the short run. Whoever replaces Iguchi in this scenario would be a stopgap until Antonelli is ready. I don’t really care who that stopgap is. Same with Geer and Ramos in the rotation, both of whom are marginal prospects at best. Let the studs continue to develop while lower-ceiling guys fill in at the big-league level.
#55@Loren: We’re probably not going to get an offer Kouz that blows us away, which means we may be better off holding him. As I said, I’m least certain about this idea.
#57@CW: No Giles hangover here. I have defended that deal from Day 1 and continue to do so, thanks.
#66@Alan: Arias actually was a prospect, but not by the time we got him. He flamed out in the Angels organization before coming here.
#83@Anthony: You know, the point about our inability to field a left fielder is fascinating. It should be just about the easiest spot to fill, and yet somehow it never is for us. I wonder why?
#90@Dave H: Actually, several teams should have some interest in the services of Giles.
Also, on a more general note, I think it’s important not to get hung up on the specific names I’ve mentioned but to focus instead on the process. Incremental changes, disciplined approach…
May 23, 2008 at 2:42 pm
#96@Dave H: No, actually we fleeced the Brewers in that trade.
New guys have a lot of reading to do.
May 23, 2008 at 2:46 pm
#97@Geoff Young:
Actually, several teams should have some interest in the services of Giles.
Any word on which teams are interested in Giles and what we could potentially get for him?
However we can get longer term solutions to the holes in the field and in the lineup, I’m all for it. If we can get a young player with some experience, that would be ideal.
BTW, nobody has mentioned Bard here yet. He’s a nice semi-regular/backup but it doesn’t seem like he is any kind of a long term solution…
May 23, 2008 at 2:46 pm
#95@Phantom: Angels SS are hitting 245/259/326 — I’d say that’s a rather large hole.
If you could get Wood and Rivera (or Willits even though Rivera is a lot better) for Greene and Bell I don’t know why you wouldn’t do it.
They have to trade Greene now, the longer they wait the less they will get for him. If the team could actually draft players they could take the chance of letting him walk for a draft pick but with their track, that’s the same as letting him walk for nothing.
May 23, 2008 at 2:48 pm
#98@Geoff Young:
If we did fleece them, I’m all ears on your reasoning. Only two guys I’m familiar with in that trade are Inman (top 100 propect, could be good) and Joe “0-2 fastball right down the middle” Thatcher…
May 23, 2008 at 2:49 pm
#100@Schlom: Rivera isn’t a CF though, right? I think a CF is probably one of the more important things we should target via trade.
A SS back would be good, but I’m not sold on Wood. I don’t thik Wood and Rivera is nearly enough for Greene and Bell.
May 23, 2008 at 2:49 pm
#100@Schlom:
If you could get Wood and Rivera (or Willits even though Rivera is a lot better) for Greene and Bell I don’t know why you wouldn’t do it.
LOVE Brandon Wood, if we could get him on the squad it would be exciting. Like you said though, any deal with the Halos seems unlikely.
May 23, 2008 at 2:54 pm
#103@Dave H: If Brandon Wood is so damn good, why aren’t the Angels currently using him? Wasn’t he supposed to “break-out” in like 2006?
May 23, 2008 at 2:58 pm
#102@Phantom:
I would do that deal in heart beat! I don’t think the Angels do though.
May 23, 2008 at 2:59 pm
#104@Phantom:
If Brandon Wood is so damn good, why aren’t the Angels currently using him? Wasn’t he supposed to “break-out” in like 2006?
Dude’s had a couple small cups of coffee, hit 30+ homers at AAA last year and is still only 23 years old. OBP and average aren’t that great.
Yeah, maybe he’ll never be better than Greene, but who knows?
May 23, 2008 at 3:03 pm
#97@Geoff Young: Following a win I am fully in favor of incremental change and a diciplined approach. Following a loss I lean more towards “Back up the truck.” Perhaps it is a good thing, that I have to pay to get in.
May 23, 2008 at 3:04 pm
#104@Phantom:
Too many strikeouts and a guy named Orlando Cabrerra. They did try moving him to 3rd to get his bat in the lineup quicker. That is actually one of the things I have never understood about the Angels. They always seem to under-utilize the good prospects it seems like they always have. Could be me though I don’t watch them all that closely.
One team I think might be an ok fit would be maybe the A’s. They have what seems to be WAY too many outfielders. Gonzalez is probably not going to be a guy we could steal from Billy Beane but it would be interesting to talk about maybe Ryan Sweeney or Travis Buck. Then again I don’t know what we have that they might want.
May 23, 2008 at 3:05 pm
#106@Dave H: Sorry to sound so vitriolic in my response, but I think that Wood, like many of the Angels’ prospects, is one of those guys who dominates in the minors and never really does much in the bigs. I could be totally wrong, but I swear I remember hearing that he was supposed to play 3B for them at some point in the past few years and be their solution there.
Admittedly, I know little about the Angels farm system. But I also thought that Rivera was strictly a RF? We really need a CF more than a RF at this point, I would think.
May 23, 2008 at 3:05 pm
#108@KRS1:
One team I think might be an ok fit would be maybe the A’s. They have what seems to be WAY too many outfielders. Gonzalez is probably not going to be a guy we could steal from Billy Beane but it would be interesting to talk about maybe Ryan Sweeney or Travis Buck. Then again I don’t know what we have that they might want.
I’m all in favor of Travis Buck being a Padre.
May 23, 2008 at 3:07 pm
@103 Dave H: I like the Rivera idea, but he is a free agent after the season and the Padres would probably be better off waiting and trying to pick him up as a free agent. Trading Bell makes sense, given what he could get in return. Two trades involving relievers have worked out well, Otsuka and Linebrink.
May 23, 2008 at 3:07 pm
#104@Phantom: Wood just turned 23 in March, expecting a 21 year old to “break-out” is a little much — there aren’t too many Alex Rodriguez’s out there.
As far as why the Angels aren’t using him, who knows? But what’s that have to with anything? The Rangers didn’t use AGon, the Mets didn’t use Heath Bell. Obviously those teams were wrong. I understand the need for a CF but if you got Rivera that makes it easier to trade Giles (although his contract is going to be a big stumbling block). Rivera’s not an ideal player but unless you are going to get just prospects from the Angels (maybe if they traded Sean Rodriguez and Brandon Wood you could then move Antonelli to CF which covers three positions). The problem is that it’s going to be hard for the Padres to get established players back in trades, they are going to have to gamble and hope to get lucky in what they acquire. On a related note, how come Towers is able to identify players in other organizations that are going to be good but he’s so terrible at doing the same for amateur players? Can’t be that much difference in the two types, can there?
May 23, 2008 at 3:10 pm
#86@Tom Waits: You really think they will turn it around that quick ? I am not disagreeing with you, its just that my experiences in witnessing these types of things, leads me to believe it is a 3year minimum plan.
May 23, 2008 at 3:10 pm
#94@Dave H: No, you couldn’t argue that. Petco suppresses offense, including singles.
#106@Dave H: That’s a specious way to argue anything. If Adrian Gonzalez was so good, why did Texas trade him?
May 23, 2008 at 3:11 pm
#99@Dave H: Re-read the article. I’ve offered my thoughts on this already.
#101@Dave H: Thatcher outpitched Linebrink by a wide margin after the trade last season, and we got two decent prospects in the deal. That’s a win every time.
#107@Field39: You’ve correctly identified part of the problem. Many people prefer day trading to investing long term. That’s not necessarily a better way to get a good return, but it’s how a lot of folks think.
May 23, 2008 at 3:13 pm
I know one person who is hoping that the Padres don’t do a fire sale — Steven Strasburg of San Diego State. I can see him sweating out the rest of the season, thinking to himself:
“Please, anyone but the Padres or Pirates. Anyone but the Padres or Pirates.”
Seriously, if I were a pitcher and either the Padres or Pirates drafted me I’d want the largest contract ever given out to an amateur player. That way I’d have enough money to overcome the inevitable elbow surgery.
May 23, 2008 at 3:17 pm
#115@Geoff Young:
Re-read the article. I’ve offered my thoughts on this already.
Thatcher outpitched Linebrink by a wide margin after the trade last season, and we got two decent prospects in the deal. That’s a win every time.
My bad, I read your thoughts, but I thought maybe there were some other rumors floating about or an actual deal on the table.
And you’re right, Thatcher did outpitch Linebrink last year. But my point was, say we had traded Linebrink a year earlier when his value was highed, don’t you think we could have gotten better players? Didn’t the Astros offer us some good players in ‘06?
May 23, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Dave H, you need to put the copy from other posts into italics or something as it’s confusing on whether it’s what you are saying or what you are replying to.
May 23, 2008 at 3:19 pm
LOL, my bad dude. Totally new to this system of responding to comments.
May 23, 2008 at 3:22 pm
#114@Tom Waits:
OK, so explain how a larger outfield supresses singles? Are the gaps between outfielders and the foul lines bigger, therefore creating more space for the ball to drop?
I’m all ears…
May 23, 2008 at 3:25 pm
#97@Geoff Young: (re 46): That’s exactly it. If you can move people for valuable returns (how valuable remains to be seen), then for the rest of the year you only need to paper over the holes. The important thing is to either use paper you don’t care about or determine if the paper you have is any good. You just don’t want to waste the good stuff.
#113@parlo: There’s no real standard time frame. In 2005 the Tigers finished 4th in the AL Central; the next year they were in the Series. The core of a Padre team that won 89 games in 2007 will still be in place next year, unless they radically tear it down. If they don’t think they can compete in the next 3 years, they should trade almost everyone currently on the roster, including Young and maybe Peavy.
May 23, 2008 at 3:32 pm
#116@Schlom: Yeah, I bet every amateur player is begging to stay away from their hometown team, where his favorite athlete plays (Jake Peavy), in one of the most desirable cities in the country to live, with a front office that has a clue on how to construct winning teams, because of a whopping four injuries in the past.
Every team has pitchers that get hurt. It’s what pitchers do.
May 23, 2008 at 3:33 pm
#120@Dave H: All you have to do is look at the splits. In 2007 the Padres had 156 fewer hits at home:
70 fewer doubles.
27 fewer HR.
7 MORE triples.
Leaving us with 66 fewer singles.
That’s been true every year that Petco has been open. In 2005 the gap was smaller. In 04 and 06, and so far in 08, it’s approximately the same as the 07 level.
You’re the only one talking about gaps between outfielders. The ball doesn’t carry in Petco. That plays into how many balls fall for hits, what the pitcher throws, and where defenders are positioned.
May 23, 2008 at 3:36 pm
#51@Tom Waits: Not sure you can compare the early mlb struggles of Cust (1st rounder) with PMAC (12th round pick) & Huber (undrafted) and hence then say “how can you give Cust a shot and not Justin Huber”. It simply doesn’t fly. Doesn’t make sense.
All were judged negatively early based on small samples at the
major league level, certainly but Cust was of course a highly touted 1st rounder out of the amateur draft who regularly had minor league seasons with 110+ walks and much better power numbers. Its comparing apples and oranges,
May 23, 2008 at 3:37 pm
#123@Tom Waits:
OK, that makes sense, good enough for me.
May 23, 2008 at 3:40 pm
#123@Tom Waits:
So I’m curious for the DS take: what is the prototypical Petco Park hitter? Or is there such a thing?
May 23, 2008 at 3:42 pm
#126@Dave H: Albert Pujols. We should build a team with 8 of those guys.
May 23, 2008 at 3:43 pm
#126@Dave H: for the official DS take you should ask GY.
May 23, 2008 at 3:45 pm
#127@Ben B.: Yeah we could beat other teams just by injuring them until they no longer have 9 men to play on the diamond!
May 23, 2008 at 3:47 pm
#127@Ben B.:
LOL, naw, I say only 6 Pujols and mix in two Ichiros.
May 23, 2008 at 3:48 pm
#126@Dave H:
There isn’t a DS take dude. Everyone here has their own ideas and philosophy. We argue all day long about them.
For me it will be generic but I would imagine a guy like Hanley Ramirez would be pretty freaking ideal because he hits for a high average and power and has plenty of speed. But like I said he’s generic because he is probably the prototypical hitter in every stadium on the planet.
May 23, 2008 at 3:49 pm
#129@Steve C:
Either that or get Bugs Bunny, the guy plays all nine positions at once!
May 23, 2008 at 3:50 pm
#84@parlo: When I said “make this team better” I didn’t mean “make this team better this year.”
#85@Tom Waits: I’m of the opinion that OPS+ kinda sucks.
#87@Dave H: Dick Wade is my grandfather. I go by Richard or if you prefer Ricky. It’s hard to say they’ve made a case against themselves since they’ve taken a farm system ranked by many as either the very worst or among the worst into one that is ranked closer to about 12th in just a couple of years.
#90@Dave H: I stand by what I said. Giles has been worth about two runs more than Nady this year. First of all, you can’t seriously be quoting me team dependent stats like R & RBI to make your point. Secondly, you have to take into account park effects. Among NL right fielders, only Ryan Ludwick is having a better season than Brian Giles.
#94@Dave H: No, you can’t argue that. PetCo Park suppresses singles, doubles and home runs.
#97@Geoff Young: I seem to recall the Padres getting an .802 OPS out of left field last season (15th in the Majors). Our inability to get production from left field is overstated.
#98@Geoff Young: Yeah, we gave up something like 30 innings of Linebrink for Thatcher, Inman and Garrison. That was an outstanding deal. Hell, Thatcher out-pitched Liney last season. If we see no return on any of them ever again that was still a win for us.
#100@Schlom: If you can get Wood (arguably the best SS prospect in baseball), you would do it. I doubt we can get him.
May 23, 2008 at 3:50 pm
#131@KRS1:
Yeah dude, that’s kind of my philosophy as well.
Just get guys that are pure hitters, period. If you lose a few homers at home oh well, you still play half the games on the road.
May 23, 2008 at 3:54 pm
#80@Tom Waits:My point is that we have 3 infield positions filled today with young players that have proven (at one time or another) that they can play at the major league level. The question marks aren’t hanging over their heads. Yes, Kouz needs to hit for better power at third, KG needs to hit for average along with his power, Gonzalez needs to strike out less, but most positions in all cities need improvement. I’d like to lock these guys up because honestly they are worth paying for.
In reference to Bartlett, again, I sat in the Crapper Dome here in Minnesota and watched him play the worst shortstop defense in the league. I’ll testify that what he is doing so far this season with the Rays is nothing short of amazing.
May 23, 2008 at 3:59 pm
#133@Richard Wade:
OK, we got over on the Linebrink trade, fine. The only reason I brought that up was as a rationale that we should trade Heath Bell now before he starts to suck like Scotty did so we can optimize any return we get on a trade.
Agree? Disagree?
May 23, 2008 at 4:04 pm
#123@Tom Waits: How many of the so called pitchers parks are left ? Petco, Dodger, Shea……Is Miami considered a pitchers park ? There are also a few that favor left or right handed hitters while suppressing the other.
May 23, 2008 at 4:04 pm
#116@Schlom: You’re either not serious or not paying attention. The Padres have lost 2 recent first-rounders to injury, but overall their pitchers don’t get hurt more than anyone else’s.
May 23, 2008 at 4:09 pm
#135@MinnesotaMo: You may testify to that, but lots of people (and the defensive stats) think Bartlett is a very good defender.
You can’t lock Greene up if he doesn’t want to be locked. So what we really have long-term is two positions, one of which (Kouz) has a rather large question mark over his head.
May 23, 2008 at 4:10 pm
#136@Dave H: I think relievers have a short shelf life. If the right deal comes along, I’d trade him in a heartbeat.
May 23, 2008 at 4:12 pm
#124@JP: You don’t like it with McAnulty and Huber? There are dozens of players with undistinguished draft histories who needed some time to adjust, the same as high round picks. It’s patently absurd to say that McAnulty or Huber can’t hit based on 100+ major league at-bats.
May 23, 2008 at 4:17 pm
FYI, the Marlins are good again. I love how they win multiple World Series and re-load while teams like the Padres twiddle their thumbs with veteran busts, poor player development and bad draft picks.
Sorry, but am I the only fan that is REALLY down on the entire organization right now, Alderson’s philosophy included?
Maybe it sounds a bit negative, but it’s because I DO care about the home team I grew up with…
May 23, 2008 at 4:18 pm
#140@Richard Wade: Agree. It would be unpopular, but Liney and Bell both came off the scrap heap.
May 23, 2008 at 4:20 pm
#139@Tom Waits: I’ll continue to testify to that. But if he was such an asset, the Twins would have kept him, especially at the price. Not to mention his job at the plate is skeptical at best. Greene has never openly said he’s ready to leave SD. Thats as much someone filabustering as anything. Albeit he is a different breed and doesnt address media very often, I’m optimistic he would re-sign here.
Bottom line is we agree to disagree which is fine. Thats what makes this fun.
I really dont see the question mark over Kouz. What are you apprehensive about with him? I’m curious.
May 23, 2008 at 4:21 pm
#142@Dave H: You’re certainly not the only one. You have a lot of supporters of that argument in talk radio callers. The last four years have been the most successful in team history. It seems like a weird time to be down on the team.
May 23, 2008 at 4:21 pm
#138@Tom Waits: No I wasn’t serious about the Padres although they are 4-4 for serious injuries on their last 4 pitcher top picks (although Stauffer was already injured). Not really joking about the Pirates, except for Maholm and last year’s pick of Moskos their last 7 top pitcher picks have gone down with serious injuries. I definitely wouldn’t pitch for them if I had any kind of choice.
What’s odd about the Padres drafting philosophy is that in the past 10 years they’ve only really developed 1 player — Jake Peavy. Yet oddly, except for their bust pick of Mark Phillips the following season — they seem to prefer to draft college players who don’t improve at all for them. Even there only other draft success, Khalil Greene, isn’t really any better then he was when he first came up. His best season was definitely his best and his 2005-2007 were about the same (more power last season, less outs created the other two years).
May 23, 2008 at 4:27 pm
#145@Richard Wade:
I know this blog mainly focuses in on stats, trade proposals, etc., which is great. That’s why we all like baseball.
But I think one of the things that’s off-putting to longtime Pads fans is the marketing of the team. I’m talking about things like being told that “big name” free agents are going to be signed, the uniforms obviously created by some trendy design firm using focus groups, and bad giveaways (where are the bobbleheads?!?!).
Yes we won two “pennants,” but would we have gotten those under the old two division system? No way. Me (and many other fans), saw this house of cards collapse coming 2 or 3 years ago…
May 23, 2008 at 4:32 pm
#144@MinnesotaMo: Greene hasn’t said he’d leave, but when the Padres approached him about a longer deal, he demurred. Not a lock, but the only guarantee is that we can have him here for this year and next. That’s not long-term.
You don’t see a question mark over a player who has defensive shortcoming and is currently hitting 274/303/398, with 4 walks (yes, that’s 4, the same amount Giles gets in 2 games) to 38 strikeouts, and does almost all his damage against LHP? He’s got talent, and I love RH hitters who can go to center and right with authority, but if that doesn’t make you question a little bit whether he’s a good fit, what would? Satanic rituals in the clubhouse?
May 23, 2008 at 4:41 pm
147: Sure, wait long enough and your prediction will come true. That doesn’t make you right, now, does it? And to try and compare the trendy using old system, are you kidding me? The point is to win it within the new system. With the old system, the 98 Padres wouldn’t have made the playoff either.
At some point, 4 winning season in a row has got to count for something.
By the way, I don’t remember hearing ‘big name’ are going to be signed. Two things wrong with that statement, one, we all have different idea of what a big name is, and two, you can’t sign them if they don’t want to.
May 23, 2008 at 4:44 pm
#147@Dave H: I personally don’t care about the marketing because that’s not why I watch baseball. I was under the impression that’s what we were discussing here anyway.
What house of cards? They won 89 games last year and were one of two NL teams to have winning seasons the last four years. What exactly do you think is reasonable to expect?
#148@Tom Waits: I’ll develop questions about Kouzmanoff if his bat doesn’t heat up with the weather like it did last season. Until then, I’ll personally be willing to attribute his slow start to his being a slow starter as demonstrated last year as well.
May 23, 2008 at 4:47 pm
#126@Dave H: I think Carl Crawford’s skill set is ideal for Petco. I was convinced of that after the D-Rays swept us here back in ‘04. Crawford was 7-for-15 with five runs scored, two triples and two SB’s. If I remember correctly, everyone was talking about how he would be the ideal player for Petco at the time.
May 23, 2008 at 4:54 pm
#150@Richard Wade:
By “House of Cards” I meant winning with a team that had a couple of really good players, aging vets and guys having career years in a division that was filled with inexperienced teams loaded with young up and coming talent. And all this time making bad decisions wth regards to the draft and farm system.
It was no guarantee, but you could see the D-Backs, Dodgers and Rocks loading up to dominate the division and make the Pads a perennial 3rd and 4th place team for years to come.
Hey, it was a decent run, they did bring post-season ball back to SD. Hey, I hope Headley and Antonelli come up next year and lead a resurgence, but again forgive me for being skeptical…
May 23, 2008 at 4:54 pm
#151@JMAR:
Word, I would love to see a guy like Crawford play in Petco.
May 23, 2008 at 4:55 pm
#148 Tom Waits:Lets not forget Kouz is in the very start of his second full year in the majors. How can you expect him to be hitting with the same ferocity as someone manning the post for 5 years. You are right, he’s not the fleet of foot third baseman a prototype would be, but he is not costing us anything. If he were hurting the team, I would concur.
As far as his hitting goes, I don’t know about you, but I don’t think KT and the front office pay Kouz to take walks. His job is to try to drive the ball. I’ll concege he has not been hitting extra base hits with ANY frequency, but again, this guy is playing in his 200+ game. If you are riding him with this type of visciousness, I better see you taking that temper to Headley when he struggles.
May 23, 2008 at 5:00 pm
#150@Richard Wade: The “one of two NL teams to have winning seasons the past four years” is a cherry picked comment to frame your argument. The Cardinals won 100 games twice, have an NL pennant, and a WS championship in that same time frame. Last year, they only won 78 games. Your comment attempts to mislead people into believing that the Padres have been more successful the past four years.
May 23, 2008 at 5:13 pm
#155@parlo: What’s cherry picking about saying the Padres haven’t had a losing season since moving to PetCo Park and pointing out that in that same time frame only one other NL team has managed to avoid a losing season? That the Padres have not managed to win short series after the regular season is hardly an indictment. There is nothing misleading about my comment.
May 23, 2008 at 5:14 pm
#104@Phantom: BA still has him as the Angels #1 prospect, although they list him as 3B, not SS. He was only 21 in 2006 and had a very good year in AA, but he struggled a bit last year at AAA, if an .835 OPS at 22 in your first year of AAA is struggling. Right now he’s playing 3B for the big club so doesn’t seem like he would be available, or viable if we’re looking at him as a SS.
May 23, 2008 at 5:14 pm
#154@MinnesotaMo: Any player with a 303 OBP is a liability. Even Dave Kingman was often a liability.
KOUZ: 274BA, 303OBP, 398SLG, 90 OPS+, 4BB, 38K
May 23, 2008 at 5:22 pm
#155@parlo: I kind of agree with him in that the Cardinals are a fluky team this season. If you looked at the rosters before the season, I don’t think many people thought that the Cardinals were going to be better. Except for Pujols and Duncan in LF against RHP, everyone of the Cardinals players were huge gambles. Ankiel had 700 AB’s in the minors where all he showed was great power but a poor average and terrible plate discipline. Ryan Ludwick’s minor league numbers were worse overall then Paul McAnulty’s. Glaus can still hit but has only played two full seasons in the last five. Their middle infield was a wreck and their catchers haven’t ever hit. Their pitching staff was in even worse shape. Except for Wainwright (a converted reliever which rarely succeeds in the majors) they were relying on retreads, and/or converted relievers. Todd Wellemeyer wasn’t even a good reliever, Braden Looper was terrible last season and Kyle Lohse signed his contract in March. The bullpen was also filled with older (with the exception of Kyle McClellan) pitchers who had mixed success in the past. Sometimes teams like the Cardinals get lucky in that all their players have career years — or at least career starts. Unfortunately some of the time they are like the Padres who have three players doing well and the rest of the team far below their normal expectations.
May 23, 2008 at 5:24 pm
#150@Richard Wade: I like the idea of attributing his slow start to his being a slow starter.
May 23, 2008 at 5:39 pm
#158@parlo:a liability!? Give me a break.
I’ll go along with you on this….so now give me a replacement thats better….other than a guy that is in the minor leagues with an OBP of 0 at the ML level.
May 23, 2008 at 5:44 pm
#154@MinnesotaMo:
Kouz may not be costing us a lot of money but he could cost us a lot developmentally by forcing our best prospect who is a better 3rd baseman to play a new position. I think if we can get decent return on Kouz keeping Headley at 3rd provides our best prospect with the best opportunity to succeed at the big league level. If we can’t get anything for Kouz fine he has too much value to ship off for weeds but if he can net another valuble piece then I think it makes a whole bunch of sense.
May 23, 2008 at 5:45 pm
#159@Schlom: My point is simply that you can frame any argument around a quirky stat. The Phillies have won 80 games or more the last 7 years. What does that mean ?
They also havent gone anywhere in those 7 years.
The Yankees won more games in the 1980s than any other team.
Its also the first decade since pre Ruth that they never won a World Championship. They were consistently a second or third place team that never had a great year (maybe ‘81) or awful year.
I have never heard Phillie fans bragging that they have won 80 games or more the last 7 years. I hear them stating that they want to take the next step up.
May 23, 2008 at 5:47 pm
#136@Dave H: Disagree. Bell is the next best bet we have for a closer right now. I sure as hell can live without Merideth.
May 23, 2008 at 5:47 pm
I think we are being too hard on Kouzmanoff here (if in fact this is just a slow start and the way he hit from mid-May on last season is the true measure of his ability). Remember that we have to take park effects into account. As bad as Kouz has been at home — 260/273/417 — he’s still a lot better then the average hitter. The Padres as a team are hitting 225/303/337 while the pitchers have limited opponents to 224/293/334 (oddly, despite out-hitting their opponents at home they are being outscored 82 to 70). His main problem is that he’s only walked 4 times. He’s never walked a lot in his career but he’s never been this bad before — he walked in about 8.5% of his minor league AB’s and 6% last season but he’s at only 1.9% so far this season.
As far as his defense goes, the only easily accessible numbers are Fielding Percentage, Range Factor, Win Shares and BP’s stats. This season he is above average in all those stats. Last year he was bad (or terrible) in all of them. Now it might be just sample size and we all know that defensive stats are unreliable but it’s certainly possible that he’s an average defender.
As good as a prospect as Headley is, there certainly isn’t any guarantee that he’ll be better then Kouz. He was drafted higher which implies that he was higher regarded coming out of college and he’s been about a year younger at each level of the minors. However, outside of last season, Headley’s minor league stats aren’t anywhere close to Kouz’s. Headley’s 2006 and 2008 so far are worse then any year that Kouz had and his 2006 season was better then Headley’s last season.
However, I could see why you’d trade Kouz and keep Headley. Chase is younger by 34 months, a switch-hitter and is reportedly a better fielder (although BP rates Kouz as a better fielder in the minors). One thing is pretty clear however, the Padres are best served by trading one or the other.
May 23, 2008 at 5:52 pm
#162@KRS1: I wouldn’t put all the eggs in one basket with Headley until he has proven himself at Petco. Kouz has made a few mistakes, but all in all has been holding his own.
May 23, 2008 at 5:54 pm
#163@parlo: Got it. I was just pointing out the Padres and Cardinals built their teams similarly this off-season although I think most people thought the Padres would be better. Sometimes you get lucky (the Cardinals this year and in the playoffs in 2006, the Rockies from September on last season) and sometimes you don’t — like the Padres this season.
May 23, 2008 at 5:58 pm
#161@MinnesotaMo: I think a good team can absorb one, maybe two KK type hitters at the bottom of the lineup. Kouz is a career 318 OBP hitter with about a 3.5/1 K to BB ratio. His fielding is not an asset. I realize that you are very fond of him. I have substandard players that I root for too. Regardless, he is not an asset to the team.
May 23, 2008 at 6:01 pm
#166@Turbine Dude:
Hear me again… I am not knocking Kouz. I like him, I like him a lot. I really liked the trade when we got him. All I am saying is that I like Headley better at 3rd base. I do not want to give Kouz away. I want to get decent value for him in a trade and replace him with a player I think has more upside. If we can’t get decent return for Kouz then fine let the Headley in left experiment continue.
Kouz may still rake and become an awesome player and if I didn’t think Headley was a better player I wouldn’t want any part of moving Kouz.
I would also be totally cool with the Padres experimenting with Kouz in left field as well. Could he be a worse fielder than P-Mac. He is slow but doens’t appear to be horribly un-athletic. The bottom line is I just think Headley is better served at 3rd.
May 23, 2008 at 6:05 pm
#165@Schlom:
I agree that there is no certainty that Headly will be better than Kouz. I’ll be surprised if he is, in fact. I suspect that Headley might bring more in return in a trade, though. I’d offer teams their choice of the two, and get as much as I could for one of them.
Regarding the all-too-frequent Wright/Headley comparisons, it’s worth noting that at age 22, Headley hit .291/.389/..434 playing in the high A Cal League. At the same age, Wright hit .306/.388/.523…..in the Major Leagues.
May 23, 2008 at 6:15 pm
#170@Lance Richardson: Yeah, Wright and Headley are only about 15 months apart in age. Wright has 2000 ML ABs. Talk radio or someone else started comparing their minor league K numbers, which are similar. The bulk of Wrights came when he was 19 years old in Single A.
The issue comes up a lot on the UT site. They also point out frequently that Headley has more HRs. Go Figure.
May 23, 2008 at 6:19 pm
#150@Richard Wade: Even if you attribute it to his slow-starting nature, the last 7 weeks are in the bank. You can’t get them back. I don’t believe in “slow starters,” just random fluctuations. I’d be even more inclined to move him if I thought he was congenitally ordained to give us below-average production for the first 6-8 weeks every season.
#154@MinnesotaMo:
If you don’t think the front office wants him taking walks, you must think the Padres are under some other management than they really are. The Padres KNOW that not making outs is the most important aspect of scoring runs.
Any below-average hitter who is average defensively is hurting the team, just like any below-average pitcher would be. He didn’t hurt the team on balance last year, he may not have hurt the team overall when we total up this year’s production, but for the last seven weeks he’s hurt us. Often badly.
You aren’t honestly taking any of this as viciousness? How many times do I need to write that Kouz is valuable before it sinks in? Where was this “it’s only 200 games” consideration when you were discussing how you want to dump Huber and McAnulty, who don’t have 200 games BETWEEN them?
May 23, 2008 at 6:23 pm
#165@Schlom: I don’t see anybody being hard on Kouz at all. People are talking about trading him for players that make us substantially better in the future, while maximizing Headley’s ability to contribute. It’s a realistic assessment of each player’s strengths and weaknesses. And nobody has pronounced him useless because of a slow start - but it shouldn’t be ignored, either.