Reshaping the Padres: Let’s Make a Deal (or Three)
Fri, May 23, 2008
by Geoff Young
On Thursday, we examined what the Padres have and what they need. Now we turn to the question of which teams might make good trade partners and then consider some possible scenarios.
As of this writing, about half the teams in baseball appear to be in contention. Some will fall of the pace, although it’s impossible to know which ones. Others may not be interested in adding payroll despite their hot starts — Oakland, Florida, and Minnesota come to mind. The NL West teams are probably out as well — Kevin Towers has made a total of four trades (one with each team) within the division in 12 1/2 years. That’s out of 139 total trades, at last count.
Almost everyone needs pitching to some degree. Teams that could use help at second base, third base, or right field include Houston, Philadelphia, St. Louis, possibly the Angels (depending on Howie Kendrick’s balky left hamstring), the White Sox, Cleveland, Minnesota, Oakland, and Tampa Bay. Without running through all the particulars (I’ve scoured these teams’ rosters; you are free to do the same), here are a few ideas that I’d be looking to explore if it were my place to do so.
Talk to the Cardinals and White Sox about Iguchi
The Cardinals have Adam Kennedy at second base. He probably isn’t different enough from Tadahito Iguchi in terms of likely overall production to merit serious consideration. If St. Louis feels otherwise, though, I’d be asking about — and this should come as no surprise — right-hander Anthony Reyes.
Meanwhile, back in Chicago, the White Sox have Juan Uribe, who has been awful (.198/.262/.328) while making the switch from shortstop. They also have the untested Alexei Ramirez and might be inclined to bring in a more known quantity to fill the hole. Iguchi played for the Pale Hose as recently as last year and won a championship with them in 2005. As far as I know, he left Chicago on good terms.
Assuming the White Sox have interest, I’d be targeting center fielder Brian Anderson, who hasn’t done much in the big leagues but who has been a decent hitter (.293/.361/.474) in the minors. He is nothing special, but then, neither is Iguchi. We’re not looking for a savior here, just someone who can help plug a hole until Cedric Hunter is ready sometime in 2010.
I suspect the White Sox may be a better fit, although I’d rather find a way to get Reyes.
Talk to the Phillies, Astros, and Twins about Kouzmanoff
Kevin Kouzmanoff is a personal favorite of mine. I love the way he handled his poor start as a rookie and refused to get down on himself when things weren’t going well. That said, if the Padres can improve themselves in other areas, I have no problem moving him, especially with Chase Headley ready at Portland. The big question with Kouz is whether his perceived value might be too low because of his somewhat slow start (as Richard reminds us, his numbers are better now than they were at the same time last year).
The Phillies have Pedro Feliz at third base. He stinks. They also have Shane Victorino in center field. He and Kouzmanoff have similar contracts and should provide similar value. Philadelphia also has been giving Jayson Werth a lot of time in center, and aside from one memorable clank job against the Padres, he’s played well. I’m thinking the Phillies might be willing to fill a hole without creating another. Throw back a spare outfielder for a low-level prospect if needed. Or go bigger and try to include right-hander Carlos Carrasco in the deal.
(After initially coming up with this idea I bounced it off Eric Seidman, who is much more familiar with the Phillies than am I. He seemed to think they would be more interested in dealing Werth — no thanks — and that they aren’t prepared to give up on Feliz, who is signed through 2009. In other words, this may not be as good a fit as I originally thought.)
The Astros have Geoff Blum and Ty Wigginton. As a team, their third baseman are batting .215/.253/.323. There isn’t anyone on Houston’s big-league roster that could help the Padres, but down on the farm, right-handers Fernando Nieve and Bud Morris are somewhat intriguing. I don’t know much about either of these guys, but their numbers look good. According to Ben Badler at Baseball America, Morris throws in the low-90s but needs to refine his secondary pitches and may move to the bullpen. Houston gave up a boatload of prospects to get Miguel Tejada, and the system is a bit thin. I like the concept here, but I’m not sure there’s a good fit.
Up north, the Twins have Mike Lamb at third, but he’s more of a role player. Minnesota probably won’t want to take on salary, which should make Kouzmanoff an appealing option. The Twins have some talented but unproven youngsters at areas where the Padres need help, including right-hander Kevin Slowey (which is the worst name for a pitcher since Bob Walk), shortstop Trevor Plouffe, and center fielders Denard Span and Jason Pridie.
Slowey is a command specialist who probably fits into what the Padres like in a pitcher, though not necessarily what they need. He profiles as a back-end rotation option without much upside. Plouffe, who turns 22 next month, is a strong defensive shortstop whose bat has started to come around (.274/.326/.410 at Double-A in 2007, with slightly better numbers at the same level so far this year). This is a guy the Padres might want to target anyway, regardless of what they decide to do (or not do) with Khalil Greene — Pridie would give San Diego some insurance at the position and options further down the line should the club decide to move Greene or watch him walk away as a free agent after ‘09.
As for Span, he’s a toolsy guy who is hitting well (.327/.431/.471) at Triple-A but who hasn’t shown much of a bat in the past. Like Slowey, he is 24 years old. Pridie, who came over from Tampa Bay along with Delmon Young this past winter, is the same age as Span and was more highly regarded coming into the season — Baseball America ranked Pridie #6 among Twins prospects and compared him to ex-Padre Steve Finley — but he’s been brutal (.220/.271/.305 at Triple-A) so far in ‘08.
Of these possibilities, I like the way the Padres match up with Minnesota the best. I’m not sure how highly the Twins regard the prospects mentioned (especially Plouffe, who would seem to be the key to any deal), but this might be an area to explore. I’d at least want to be talking with these guys.
Talk to the Indians and Mets about Giles and/or Wolf
Because of Brian Giles‘ contract, any deal involving him is almost certain to include cash passing from the Padres to his new team. That said, there are potential suitors.
The Indians have Franklin Gutierrez in right field. Giles, who got his start in Cleveland, would represent a substantial upgrade. The Indians have several promising young pitchers, including Adam Miller, Ryan Miller, and David Huff. I don’t know how good (or available) they might be, but these are some names that stand out to me based on their numbers. Adam Miller once was considered a top prospect but has been slow to develop.
The Mets have Moises Alou in left field — Giles’ primary position before coming to San Diego. They also have a young left-hander who seems to have fallen out of favor (Oliver Perez), as well as some intriguing minor-league arms (Nicholas Carr, Angel Calero, among others). Perez won arbitration this past winter and is making $6.5 million in 2008. Wolf is cheaper and presumably less of a headache to the likes of Billy Wagner.
I’m guessing that the Padres wouldn’t have to pay as much of Giles’ salary in a deal involving Perez (because the Mets would be unloading a hefty contract of their own). It can be tough to get an accurate read on what’s really going on in New York because there’s always so much drama, but I’ve also heard that the Mets might be looking to move Aaron Heilman. I might suggest expanding a potential deal to include Heilman and Heath Bell, but judging from the latter’s first go-round with the Mets, that would be cruel.
Here, I like the Mets’ potential package a little better.
What I Would Do
Well, it’s really what I would attempt to do. Obviously the other teams involved have a say in all this…
- Trade Iguchi to the White Sox for Anderson (assuming the Cards balk at moving Reyes)
- Trade Kouzmanoff to the Twins for Plouffe, Slowey, and either Span or Pridie — possibly expanding the deal to include more players on both sides (I’m very uncertain of this move; there’s a lot of risk involved)
- Trade Giles, Wolf, and some amount of cash to the Mets for Oliver Perez and a minor-league arm
- Recall Headley and Antonelli (if he’s not ready, then go with Craig Stansberry or Edgar Gonzalez)
- Release Shawn Estes and Justin Germano (in fact, Germano was DFAd during the course of writing this post over several days), recall Josh Geer and Cesar Ramos
- Keep Greene — at least until Plouffe is ready
- Keep Greg Maddux — he won’t bring enough in return to offset the loss of his presence
So we now have a lineup that looks like this:
C: Josh Bard/Michael Barrett
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Antonelli/Stansberry/E-Gon
3B: Headley
SS: Greene (with Plouffe in minors)
LF: Paul McAnulty/Scott Hairston
CF: Anderson (with Span or Pridie in minors)
RF: Jody Gerut
Maybe one of McAnulty or Hairston emerges, maybe not. Whatever the case, Chad Huffman should be knocking on the door in spring 2009 anyway. Heck, if you’re feeling real crazy, you might even bring him up after the All-Star break.
Here’s the rotation:
Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Maddux
Perez
Geer/Ramos
Geer and Ramos look like marginal big-league pitchers to me, at best, but you might as well run ‘em out there and see what they can do. Once LeBlanc stops tipping his change-up, or whatever the heck his problem is, then you give him a more serious look. Same with Inman when he’s ready, probably mid-2009.
Concluding Thoughts
My suggestions may not be as radical as some people might like, but I don’t see a need to blow up the team based on the quaint notion that “48 games are more important than four seasons worth of games” (thanks to MB at Friar Forecast for expressing this sentiment more eloquently than I can). The important thing is to make incremental improvements and maintain a disciplined approach to whatever moves you end up making.
The problems with this team feel monumental because we’re experiencing them right now, but really this is just part of the cycle — well, unless you’re the Pirates — and things will get better. Not because of some magic pill or because anyone believes it will (ugh, please!), but because the management team in place has a proven track record of success. Does this mean they’ve never stumbled in the process? Well, you really don’t need to look further than the first third of this season to find your answer. But it also doesn’t mean they stumble all the time, or even most of the time.
It will be interesting to see what kinds of changes are in store for this team over the coming weeks and months. That’s the great thing about baseball: Even when the on-field product is scarcely worth mentioning (Thursday night’s power surge being a notable exception), there’s always something happening. Guess that’s why we keep coming back for more…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 23, 2008 at 8:01 am
Seems like a lot of work to not really get anything back….hey they would save everyone’s salary for the rest of the year right?
May 23, 2008 at 8:05 am
1. As much as I think Estes is doomed to failure, I wouldn’t release him. I’d rather have LeBlanc working on things in AAA than the majors. Estes can take those beatings for him. And if he somehow manages to have hitters smack balls right to his fielders for another 4 starts, maybe you get something for him.
2. Not sure Maddux’s return will be that low. Yes, he was traded for Izturis, but that was because the Cubs wanted Izturis. They saw him as an improvement over Cedeno. Izturis was, after all, an All-Star in 2005. He didn’t deserve to be, but he was what the Cubs wanted. Is it unrealistic to think Maddux would net Lillibridge from the Braves? I’d gladly trade 3 months of Mad Dog’s intangibles for a possible solution at shortstop.
May 23, 2008 at 8:13 am
I can’t process this yet, but — I think the Marlins are a great trade partner. They are contending, need a third baseman, and could use some depth in the rotation (Wolf/Maddux).
Not sure what’s in their system, but it’s another place to explore.
May 23, 2008 at 8:19 am
#1@Mark Ase: True, except for the bit about not really getting anything back.
#2@Tom Waits: If they can get something for Estes, by all means they should do so, but I just don’t see it happening. If Maddux would fetch Lillibridge, that’d probably be worth doing. I did explore a Lillibridge scenario at some point but dropped it along the way because… well, I can’t remember why. I’ve actually been working on this piece for about a week and it’s changed a bazillion times. That’s why Slowey doesn’t show up in the final rotation. And I agree that there’s no need to rush LeBlanc. He should remain at Portland until he gets back on track.
May 23, 2008 at 8:25 am
#3@Alan: Not sure if we have enough to get any of them, but Florida does have a lot of arms in AA. Probably a pipe dream, but if they were sufficiently desperate Gaby Hernandez might be an option.
May 23, 2008 at 8:29 am
#4@Geoff Young: Yeah, I don’t see him getting a live human back, but I’d still rather have him absorbing the body blows than LeBlanc, or, worse, Inman.
May 23, 2008 at 8:36 am
#6@Tom Waits: Goodness, absolutely not Inman. That’s why we have guys like Geer and Ramos.
May 23, 2008 at 8:36 am
No deal for a real left fielders, Georff? There has got to be a guy who can hit for average and play LF somewhere in baseball.
May 23, 2008 at 8:37 am
From today’s UT…
A few Padres players find it strange that Towers recently sounded off about their effort and baserunning, attempting to heighten the players’ sense of urgency, yet the front office appears passive about promoting Headley. As for the environment Headley would enter, several players have said veterans such as Trevor Hoffman, Brian Giles and Greg Maddux excel at reducing pressure.
May 23, 2008 at 8:43 am
#8@PM: Yeah, there are plenty of those guys. Headley would be one if Kouz isn’t moved. Huffman is also an option, though possibly not this year.
#9@Coronado Mike: I’ve noticed of late a strange media obsession with Headley. It seems folks have gotten it into their heads that he’ll be some kind of savior and he should be promoted immediately regardless of how it might affect his development, the team, etc. If the front office “appears passive,” I’d submit that others appear “overly eager.” When Headley’s time comes, he’ll be here (or elsewhere) and probably stick around a while.
May 23, 2008 at 8:44 am
#9@Coronado Mike: Urine on the leg of a rookie is a proven cure for pressure.
May 23, 2008 at 8:47 am
#11@Tom Waits: I would punch Maddog squre in the nose if he did that to me…rookie or not.
That is just wrong on so many levels…and this is coming from a guy who has been known for a prank or 3 in his life…just don’t pee on my leg.
May 23, 2008 at 8:49 am
#10@Geoff Young: I actually think holding down Headley right now is a great call, given that the media is overly infatuated with him at this point.
May 23, 2008 at 8:56 am
#12@Coronado Mike:
I would be honored if MadDog saw it fit to honor me with a golden shower. That’s just me though.
I actually saw him at the coffee shop across the street from my work downtown on tuesday. Maybe next time i’ll build up the courage to ask him to haze me.
May 23, 2008 at 9:00 am
#12@Coronado Mike: Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 23, 2008 at 9:02 am
#13@Phantom:
Me too! I think everyone is really expecting way too much from him. Not that I don’t think that he will be able to cut it but I think the average SDUT reader or SD sports talk radio fan thinks this kid is going to be our Justin Upton or Ryan Braun and that’s just really not who Chase is going to be.
The Padres seem that they also have some final evaluations to make on Hairston, Huber and P-Mac if they really are going to make whole-sale changes like they say. If Headley comes up to play left I imagine he plays there every night for the rest of the season.
May 23, 2008 at 9:08 am
I’d hang on to Estes as well. If he can string together some decent starts I guarantee KT can put on his sludge merchant hat and move him to a wannabe contender around the trade deadline for something, which is more than we get if he’s released. If he sucks it doesn’t matter, we’re not going to contend anyway.
A commenter at Gaslamp Ball last night mentioned there’s a Randy Wolf for T Gwynn Jr rumor going around Milwaukee. Bringing in Jr would be one way to get the spotlight off Headley.
May 23, 2008 at 9:09 am
Awe, don’t trade Giles…He’s my favorite player…
May 23, 2008 at 9:23 am
These are decent suggestions, but really they will just result in more boring, vanilla Padres baseball, only they’ll win like 5 more games a year.
Bold Prediction: Headley and Antonelli are WAY overhyped and will end up sucking.
“From the farm system that brought you Sean Burroughs and George Arias…”
May 23, 2008 at 9:24 am
#17@Anthony: “Now in centerfield, Sacrificial Lamb!”
May 23, 2008 at 9:26 am
Lets be honest here…..
We finally have an infield (minues 2B) that we can have around for several years. I think ******** with that now will create the rotating door we’ve been in since the days of Wally-Ball, Quilvio, Gomez & Caminiti.
The Padres are in a weird state right now and the poor play is only accentuating the “Get them out of here” mentality.
There are untouchables on this team in my opinion. My list:
Peavy, Gonzalez, Greene, Kouz, Young & Bell.
These are the core guys that you can add to and win NL West Pennants with.
Also, I have a dump immediately list:
Iguchi, McAnulty, Huber & Clark.
Those ‘Dump’ guys are taking up places on the bench where either younger guys could be getting time or learning from guys like Giles and Maddux. We’ve seen what the dump guys can do already this year and the result is nothing. Mediocre play from mediocre players. You may be asking where Hairston is in all of this and you would be right. However Hairston seems to know when to hit a timely homerun. Does that make him worth what the core players are….no, but his pop would be great giving guys the day off.
I agree with Mark that it appears that this scenario you have come up with Geoff is a lot of work for such little return. Especially with the Twins trade. I’m home-based here in the Twin Cities (after being transplanted from my San Diego home) and although Slowey and others look decent as a trade prospect I would pass.
May 23, 2008 at 9:27 am
I can’t wait to see how the Padres waste their first round pick in the draft this year.
“Wanted: control artist who’s fastball tops out in the mid 80’s, has a history of shoulder or elbow problems and will sign for a bag of peanuts”
May 23, 2008 at 9:28 am
MinnesotaMo, I like your “Dump List”
CrackAnulty and HuberStank need to go.
May 23, 2008 at 9:39 am
#21@MinnesotaMo: I respectfully submit a couple of numbers…
.320 –> .291 –> .269
That is KG’s OBP over the past 3 years…descending. Not a good trend.
His D has consistantly inproved, but a guy that makes outs at that type of pace is not an “untouchable”.
May 23, 2008 at 9:41 am
#21@MinnesotaMo:
Greene is only signed through 2009. He seems unlikely to resign here since Petco hurts his game so much, but he’s not your average bear, so maybe he does.
With Headley at 3b, the infield stays together longer, plays better defense, and probably hits better. I haven’t seen anyone who wants to “dump” Kouz, but if you can address other needs by moving him, it’s much smarter than playing Headley in LF.
What’s the alternative to making those trades? Playing .500 ball if we’re lucky the rest of the season, getting a worse draft pick in 2009, watching Maddux and Wolf move elsewhere (or possibly worse, accept arbitration), paying Giles 3 million to go away?
May 23, 2008 at 9:42 am
Two things of interest in Jason Stark’s latest column…
1. Grab your shopping carts: As the frustration mounts in San Diego, it’s looking more and more likely that the Padres could kick off their clearance sale any week now. The guy at the top of quite a few shopping lists figures to be Brian Giles, the Padres’ OPS leader. An official of one club that has spoken with San Diego went as far as to predict a Giles trade is “likely.” But hang on. Giles can block a trade to eight teams, and his $9 million option for next year automatically becomes an $11 million option (or $3 million buyout) if he’s traded. Plus, his exit would leave this team with just about zero offense from its outfield. “No,” one baseball man said, laughing. “Without him, they’d have no offense, period.”
2. The Royals would seem more likely to trade a relief pitcher or two than a position player before the deadline. But one Royals regular about whom we’re starting to hear other teams speculate is center fielder David DeJesus. GM Dayton Moore told Rumblings that at this stage in the Royals’ development, “we’ll evaluate anything.” But though Moore won’t talk specifically about any potential deal, he did say, “David DeJesus is a guy you can win with.” Also, DeJesus’ contract is so club-friendly (with salaries of $3.6 million, $4.7 million and $6 million through 2011), the Royals would need to get a spectacular offer to persuade them to move one of their more consistent players.
May 23, 2008 at 9:45 am
Guy on Jeff & Dave this morning brought up a great point. When you’re trading vets making the kind of $$$ that Giles and Maddux do, the level of prospeect you get in return depends on how much of that players’ salary the Padres are willing to pay upon trade.
If Moores offers to pay like 80% of Mad Dog’s 10 million a year contract and trade him to a contender, then we might get a good young player in return. But how likely is THAT to happen??
May 23, 2008 at 9:47 am
#16@KRS1: I have posted comments at the UT stating that I am concerned about Headleys strikeouts. I get a lot of responses from people calling me a Padre hater etc. One poster was comparing Headley to David Wright.
I dont know where this comes from. Talk radio, UT, Mad Friar, KT, Padres Website ?????
There is a good sized chunk of fans who believe the farm system is loaded with talent.
May 23, 2008 at 9:48 am
#27@Dave H: That’s not always true. It depends on how well the veteran player is doing. There are a lot of trades in which fairly expensive players move without money being involved. But it is true that sometimes the unloading team will “buy” a prospect by including some cash.
May 23, 2008 at 9:53 am
I’d sooner trade Maddux back to the Cubs to acquire Felix Pie or maybe Eric PAtterson if we’re lucky then most of those other moves. I don’t think the Cubs are really interested in keeping Pie because A) they made two FA moves to push Pie way back in the depth chart, of which one was frakking Edmonds, B) They haven’t given Pie much of a chance to play and work himself out of the hitting slump and C) the Cubs had been successful with marquis/dempster/etc but they don’t feel confident that that trend will continue.
May 23, 2008 at 9:54 am
Good point Tom, if a guy is hot it’s definately a lot easier to move him.
Giles has been hitting well lately, but at this point he’s still probably not in real high demand…
May 23, 2008 at 9:58 am
Loren, sad to say but the Cubs can probably do a lot better than trading Pie for Maddux.
I think the guy they need to look at trading is Randy Wolf. He’s been pitching well, eating innings and it would be a good idea to get some value before his arm falls off at the break.
May 23, 2008 at 10:03 am
#19@Dave H: Thanks for posting. I look forward to hearing your alternative suggestions on how to improve the team.
#28@parlo: David Wright? As in, the guy who plays for the Mets? That’s just asinine.
May 23, 2008 at 10:08 am
#21@MinnesotaMo: Thanks for posting. It’s funny: I’ve actually heard from one pretty smart baseball guy (not a Twins fan) who wouldn’t trade Slowey straight up for Kouz. Go figure…
May 23, 2008 at 10:09 am
#33@Geoff Young: I assume your response to Dave H was sarcasm, given his mean-spirited posts in this thread. Thanks for taking the time to do this task, and, even if I am not sure your proposed trades are viable, at least a good amount of thought is put into them. It is what makes this blog so much better than talk radio callers and UT article writers and comments sections. Cheers.
May 23, 2008 at 10:10 am
28: Headley = Wright from all the hypes on the radio. The more these talkies are talking the better Headley seems. The thing is these talkies are slumming for anything. There is not reason Headley should come up now. Part of these if the FO fault of trying to sell the public on the current state of the farm system as some players are buying into this hype as well.
May 23, 2008 at 10:16 am
Geoff, thanks for your response. The one guy I do like in your proposals is Brain Anderson, I think he’s a nice young player if we can get him.
The one intriguing guy in the farm system right now (and he has been mentioned on here before):
Will Veneble. Shouldn’t they be looking at this guy for possible center fielder, he’s been pretty hot this year?
May 23, 2008 at 10:16 am
Geoff, good thought process.
The only one that I’d hesitate to do is actually the deal that would make the most sense, with the Twins. I, too, have heard that Slowey and Pridie are not as good as expected. Denard Span, on the other hand, I don’t see how the Twins are going to part with. From what I heard from my Twins fans, Span’s very good.
May 23, 2008 at 10:19 am
I’m a *huge* fan of Will Carroll’s health and injury reporting at Baseball Prospectus … and, lucky for Padre fans, today’s entry is free for all …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=7568
Clearly the Padres (with Jake and CY and Bard recently doing on the DL) are getting top billing in his recent reports. He links to some very good articles which go in depth on Jake’s status.
This is MUST READ.
May 23, 2008 at 10:27 am
#35@The Fathers: Thanks, much appreciated. Actually, I’ve seen a couple new names on here this morning and I’m trying to get them involved in the conversation. The more, the merrier, especially if they bring something new to the table. I have a certain way of thinking about things and other people will see things that I miss. It’s a good way to learn, not to mention just chat with other passionate Padre fans.
#37@Dave H: Venable doesn’t excite me much. He’s 24 years old, and his power and strike-zone judgment aren’t great. Seems more like a fourth outfielder to me.
#38@Didi: Yeah, I’m very uncertain about the Twins idea. I’m also getting the impression from people I’ve talked to who don’t follow the Padres closely that Kouz’s perceived value is way down right now. Whether that extends to the front offices of other teams, I don’t know, but he might be a better guy to hold right now, especially if folks seriously believe Headley is the new Wright. Good Lord, someone needs to educate these people.
May 23, 2008 at 10:31 am
#17@Anthony: I would do a Randy Wolf for Tony Gwynn, Jr . trade in a second. BUT, if they are afraid of putting too much pressure on Chase Headley, I doubt they would want to bring in the son of the greatest player San Diego will ever see. That would be tremendous pressure, in the eyes of the FO anyways.
Funny thing happened after Kouz and Khalil hit those bombs yesterday. I woke up today and decided I didn’t want either of those guys traded…. at least for now. I mean, how many shortstops can hit the ball in the 2nd deck with such ease? And how many players in baseball can hit a line-drive out of Petco to right-center? Yesterday was a reminder of how much potential our left side of the infield has and how much they have underachieved this season.
May 23, 2008 at 10:35 am
OT … the Cardinals / Pujols perspective on the events of Wed night …
http://tinyurl.com/3uxa94
May 23, 2008 at 10:36 am
#37@Dave H: Well, that’s a strange set of judgments, when Brian Anderson is looked at as a prize. He’s already 26 and has failed just as spectacularly, in a much longer trial, than McAnulty and Huber. He can play some defense, and I wouldn’t mind giving him a shot, but I have the feeling that if he was a Padre farmhand he’d be on your “dumped” or “overhyped” list.
They are looking at Venable in CF, because his bat isn’t likely to play anywhere else. The question is, does he have the glove for it?
#40@Geoff Young: (re 38): That’s definitely something the front office has to consider. Kouz, even if it turns out that he’s not what we want as an everyday 3b, can still do some things. It makes no sense to trade him for 25 cents on the dollar. But we don’t need 100 cents on the dollar, either.
May 23, 2008 at 10:38 am
Last night’s game was a huge cheer-me-up … but so is making some nice 8×10 prints of these pics taken by a Padres team photographer and posted on Friar John’s blog …
http://tinyurl.com/3nalgf
http://tinyurl.com/4hkhdh
BOMBS AWAY!!!
May 23, 2008 at 10:42 am
Another good point Tom, Anderson was a flop in Chi-town; what I didn’t realize he is 26 already.
Guess I’m just grasping for straws with Veneble here, you never know when a guy gets playing time. I know they are completely different players but look at what’s happened now that Jack Custs has been given a shot.
May 23, 2008 at 10:53 am
I’m with you on trading Kouz especially to get a CF or pitching, but unless you want Edgar Gonzalez as your everyday 2b - I wouldn’t trade Iguchi. The offense is bad now, without Giles it has trouble competing in the Texas League.
Calling up Antonelli and especially Stansberry would be a serious mistake. I sympathize with people who want change, but I really don’t think there are that many trades and calling guys up from AAA who are hitting barely over .200, or below in Antonelli’s case, doesn’t seem to be the best plan.
Also Geer with an ERA of 4.85 and Ramos is even worse at might need a little more seasoning. Although I would look to call up Hayhurst.
Actually if you are really looking to shake things up Inman and Huffman, after Headley may be the best candidates for a callup.
May 23, 2008 at 10:58 am
Isn’t Oliver Perez a free agent in 09? Is that idea based on Ollie signing an extension with the Pads?
May 23, 2008 at 10:59 am
#39@LynchMob: He mentions CY coming back “Rip Hamilton Style”…wondering if a pitcher would be allowed to wear a face mask…They can’t have shiny jewelery, have batting gloves in their pockets, or have anything that distracts the hitters.
I am guessing that a lot of players/managers would object to CY coming out with a plastic mask over his nose. If I am in a pennant chase and come up against a pitcher like CY, you better believe I am complaining to the ump that the glare off his face mask is distracting.
May 23, 2008 at 11:03 am
#38@Didi: If another team’s front office thinks Headley is the next David Wright then I am all for trading him…NOW.
But since he is not really seen that way, I do not advocate that type of move.
May 23, 2008 at 11:03 am
Personally I’m not huge on trading Kouz right now. He’s proving himself as an everyday major leaguer, and giving him up for a B or C level pitching prospect who may or may not pan out seems a bit counterproductive.
Headley can play left.
May 23, 2008 at 11:17 am
#45@Dave H: It’s contradictory to say “Look at what Cust has done” and then claim that McAnulty and Huber are clearly worthless. Before he busted out last year, Cust had struggled to establish himself. He started this year very slowly (669 OPS in April). McAnulty and Huber may never be productive major leaguers, but we don’t know that yet. McAnulty hasn’t struggled any more than Kouz did to start last year.
#46@John Conniff: I don’t want to shake things up. I want the 2009-11 Padres to have the best possible chance to succeed. So I’d trade almost anyone who didn’t fit that plan, if they brought back a sufficient reward. We might be better off keeping Giles and picking up his option than trading him. But I wouldn’t rush Inman, and I’d be fine with anyone at 2b. Probably Egone because it makes a nice story.
#48@Coronado Mike: Paint it a matte flesh tone.
#47@Dalton: I thought you’d be bigger. Roadhouse, baby!
May 23, 2008 at 11:25 am
#26@Coronado Mike: This
“baseball insider”’s comment really irks. Agon is 4th in the league in homers and 2nd in the league in RBIs. How’s that for some offense??
May 23, 2008 at 11:26 am
#50@Dave H: Nobody’s huge on trading Kouz, but if you get enough for him to make the team better, it’s smart.
We’ve seen what substandard outfield defense can do. I’d much rather have Headley at his best position and let Huffman play LF in 09.
May 23, 2008 at 11:27 am
#52@Marsh: I bet a lot of his RBIs consist of Giles scoring.
May 23, 2008 at 11:27 am
I really haven’t wanted to trade Kouz regardless because he’s one of the only players we have with the power to really hit the ball. Heck his last two HRs have been to the deepest part of the park, and he did it without too much difficulty. I stated this for a while; a Headley-Gonzo-Kouz-Greene at 3-6 gives us a hell of a lot of power in the middle. So I can take some defensive butchering in return for the ability to take the ball out even in Petco.
As far as deal goes, unless I get something that blows me away, and Geoff’s offer did not, I’m not trading Kouz. I’d still talk with the Yankees about Bard and Maddux, maybe to get one of their 3-4 good outfield prospects (obviously not Tabata but they have some other guys). Wolf is improving his value bit by bit, I wonder if we couldn’t make a trade with Wolf, Hairston and maybe a pitcher (Ramos?) for Shane Victorino. Phils are thinking long and hard about clearing Victorino out and he’d be a vast improvement in CF.
May 23, 2008 at 11:29 am
#51@Tom Waits: I agree on making the ‘09-’11 Padres the best they can be but I think calling up guys that aren’t ready or players that shouldn’t be there in the first place isn’t the answer.
Right now I’m inclined to keep Giles for another year while hopefully Headley and Huffman develop in their half and full rookie seasons. Part ot me still thinks Antonelli is going to pull out of his slump, but we’ll see.
LeBlanc has the most upside in Portland but right now his problem is trying to throw a change that looks like his two-seamer, which he is having difficulty controlling. When he doesn’t have it, guys sit on it and pound him. I like Geer, but he’s still getting hit pretty hard in AAA.
May 23, 2008 at 11:30 am
Couple of thoughts. Trading for Oliver Perez does not make much sense given he will be a free agent at the end of the year and will be demanding too much for the Padres. Seems like there is a little bit of the Giles trade hangover being involved in that scenario, maybe the Padres can work a three way deal and get Jason Bay as well.:-) I would like to see the Padres potentially explore getting a guy like a Jeremy Reed from the Mariners, potentially for Blanks who does not look to have much of a future in SD and could fit into the plans for the Mariners. Reed has the potential to turn into more of a player than Brian Anderson based on his track record.
Also there seems to be a lot of scenarios involving Padres trading position players for pitching, which does not fill the offensive holes the Padres have. The Padres are always going to be able to attract starting pitching so I think the emphasis should be on getting positional players with team control.
I would keep Kouz going into next year playing Headley in left. If Huffman does force the issue and creates a log jam you then have the option of trading one of the Kouz, Headley, or Huffman, ideally at a lot higher value then where they are at now. You don’t lose anything by waiting and holding Kouz, if he emerges and starts putting up big numbers then you have a real chip if you decide to got that route.
May 23, 2008 at 11:31 am
#55@Loren: IMO, I think people focus too much on Kouzs power.
274BA, 303 OBP, 398SLG, 90 OPS+, 4BB, 38K
There are a lot of offensive liabilities in his numbers.
May 23, 2008 at 11:32 am
#52@Marsh: That could be Stark talking to Steve Phillips.
May 23, 2008 at 11:39 am
Huge fan of the Denard Span idea, Geoff. Young, underproducing at the majors but a good minor track record with time and ability to improve.
Those are the risks we need to take.
May 23, 2008 at 11:42 am
#58 Parlo
I won’t deny there’s liabilities there but he’s been the second best hitter on the Pads for two years, and though people focus alot of Kouz’s power, its primarily because in Petco we’ve been power starved. He has flaws in his game yes, but I think his potential and what he’s been able to do over the last two years makes him a component you don’t want to trade cheap. But if you want to trade him away I agree with #57; let the prospects force the issue and trade from a place of strength
May 23, 2008 at 11:42 am
OK, you all have “nailed” me on this stuff.
Really, I think one thing we can all agree on is that Padres fans should be VERY skeptical about any minor leaguers they claim will come up and make an impact (i.e. Antonelli and Headley). Who have they developed in the past say, 10 years?
1) Peavy (LOL, remember Tankersly was supposed to be better?)
2) Khalil (whom I kind of like, despite the major offensive holes in his game and extreme hot/cold tendencies.)
I can’t think of any others, please help me if I’ve left anybody significant out. Eaton, Yong, Gonzalez, Kouz, all trades from other teams (and pretty good ones, lets give them some credit).
Point is, there must be something going with regards to their poor player development. Arias me once shame on you, Burroughs me twice shame on me…
May 23, 2008 at 11:43 am
People who are focusing on Kouz’ prouduction are somewhat missing the point.
We have two hitters who can play third and can probably hit well enough to play third, maybe even be special at it. Moving either to LF weakens their value to the team and in a trade.
Trading one is a good idea if you can get value back at a position of need.
So it’s between Headley and Kouzmanoff. Given KK’s splits, Headley’s accepted status as a better defender, I’d take my chances with Chase and see what I could get for Kouz.
But trading Headley shouldn’t be off the table either.
May 23, 2008 at 11:45 am
#55@Loren: Kouz has power, but right now he’s also got Khalil’s strike zone judgment. He walked in the minors, so it’s not necessarily permanent, but runs are directly related to getting on base. I’d take his defense, too, if his OBP was around 330 and his power returned full-time. But it’s not as if Headley lacks power, and he gives you a better eye at the plate and improved defense.
#56@John Conniff: Yeah, I wouldn’t call up anybody who isn’t ready. I’d call up guys I don’t much care about. Geer, Ramos, Venable, Stansberry.
#57@CW: I like Reed. But free agent pitching costs money; even Wolf is set to make 7 million. Besides, we’re not actually that strong in the pitching department. 3 of the last 4 years the lack of depth in the rotation has hurt us badly.
#58@parlo: Those strikeout / walk numbers are the most worrying part. Strikeouts don’t bother me if you’ll take a free pass.
May 23, 2008 at 11:47 am
#61@Loren: No, he hasn’t. The second best hitter on the Padres now is Brian Giles, who has been almost as productive as Agon (way more OBP, far less power). Giles was just as good as Kouz last year. Jenga (Bradley) was actually the best overall hitter, but in such a short period it shouldn’t count.
May 23, 2008 at 11:49 am
Why do people bring up George Arias? It’s like folks who are skeptical of Headley are only reading press clippings and acting like there isn’t more information out there.
Arias was verbally hyped, but wasn’t any kind of real prospect that I remember. The system was barren and Towers was doing his usual hype job.
Burroughs never developed power. Simple as that — and then began to try to compensate for it and screwed himself up. A valid comment. But Arias isn’t comparable to Headley.
The Chipper Jones comments on Headley are a joke. And people should be concerned about his K rate. But he’s not George Arias.
May 23, 2008 at 11:50 am
Alan
Here’s teh problem - I think both are undervalued at this point.
Kouz is undervalued because he plays for the Padres, is somewhat (or is) bad at 3B, and doesn’t have the **** 3B power numbers
Headley’s undervalued because he’s coming out of the Padres system which hasn’t produced any really good hitters in a long time and because every team that wants him offers to give up **** for him (Nate McLouth, Luke Scott, Coco Crisp)
So yeah we have two guys who can hit at 3B and can be special but since neither have set the world on fire non of them are going to fetch big prospects.
May 23, 2008 at 11:52 am
#62@Dave H: Oh, we should absolutely be skeptical. I think you’ll find DSers as a group are fairly wary of the minor league and drafting strategy of the Padres.
May 23, 2008 at 11:52 am
#66-Alan
The Chipper Jones comments on Headley are a joke. And people should be concerned about his K rate. But he’s not George Arias.
Agreed, it’s not fair to base our opinions of Headley based on past failures at 3rd base.
Geoff, maybe you can answer this, what kind of numbers project to in the majors? If it’s something like .275 average, 12 homers, .350 OBP then you’ll have forgive me for not doing backflips over the guy…
May 23, 2008 at 11:54 am
#62@Dave H: Ollie and X Nady should also be in that list, if memory serves.
May 23, 2008 at 11:57 am
#62@Dave H: You can’t just write that because Burroughs didn’t pan out that everyone else will be the same.
Also Burroughs was good at what he did in the minors, he could put the bat on the ball and had exceptional hand eye coordination. The problem was too many pundits were predicting that he would hit for much more power than he ever showed in the minors. If the Padres had realized what they had - a guy with potentially some gap power that could develop into a good #2 hitter behind a leadoff man like Dave Roberts - instead of trying to covert him into a power hitter then a leadoff man, it might have gone better for both parties.
Usually if someone hits at AA or above, they will hit in the majors. Pitching is a little different - but with a club with SD’s resources, you have to build through the minors.
May 23, 2008 at 11:57 am
#68 Tom-Oh, we should absolutely be skeptical. I think you’ll find DSers as a group are fairly wary of the minor league and drafting strategy of the Padres.
That’s good to know, as I am fairly new to these boards. It’s just a very frustrating franchise to be a fan of. I mean as bad as the Rays have been they spent time signing good, talented athletes (yes, ATHLETES) and developing them. Fans have gotten to grow with guys like Crawford and Kazmir, and now they are competetive.
SD just has a revolving door of band-aid solutions it seems like (at least Jake, A-Gone, Young and Khalil have/will be mainstays). Plus the uniforms are atrocious.
May 23, 2008 at 11:59 am
#64@Tom Waits: No offense Tom and to use a cliche, that is just shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic -especially with Stansberry and Ramos.
I don’t like Venable in CF - but others have told me he’s been playing well out there. I think Geer could develop, but he needs a full year in AAA.
May 23, 2008 at 11:59 am
#70 Phantom- Ollie and X Nady should also be in that list, if memory serves.
For sure. Nady I guess served his purpose in us getting Cameron for a bit.
May 23, 2008 at 12:05 pm
#73@John Conniff: Oh, it is shuffling chairs around, no question. But what’s missing is that by moving the veterans, you’re getting new chairs. Those new chairs might be better than the furniture which is allowed to ride the HMS 2008 San Diego Padres Baseball Season into the cold, dark sea.
If we can get B- pitching prospect for Iguchi, and what it costs us in 2008 is having Edgar Gonzalez play 2b for 75 games, it’s worth it. Iguchi’s not here next year anyway. Kouz and Giles are different because we can keep them if we want, and their trade value may not be high enough to justify a move. Maddux is somewhat in that same lifeboat.
May 23, 2008 at 12:09 pm
#64@Tom Waits: The K/BB ratio drives me bananas! There are too many players like that on this team.
I dont mind one, maybe two, but this lineup has numerous players with those type of numbers. (granted, not as bad as KK, but KG isnt far behind). I think the entire offensive culture needs to change. If young players are coming in, there shouldnt be a group of established players with such poor discipline.
May 23, 2008 at 12:12 pm
#60@Alan: Agree on Span. He shouldn’t be the primary return unless the trade doesn’t involve Kouz, but we should try for him.
May 23, 2008 at 12:15 pm
#74@Dave H: But your entire point was that the system hasn’t produced anyone in the 10 years. Whether or not they benefitted our team or another through trade is irrelevant. The fact remains that there ARE people who have been developed through our system.
This is OT, but does anyone know when Carillo should be going again? I seem to remember thinking that he should start showing up around summer and it’s almost June.