Everth Has No Power: He Never Got the Memo

by Geoff Young on Apr 07, 2010 (4) Comments

The people who say Everth Cabrera has zero power are the same ones who haven’t seen him bat. He drove the ball hard twice in Tuesday night’s 6-3 victory over Arizona, knocking a two-run double off the left-center field fence in the second and a two-run triple to the gap in right-center in the sixth.

My favorite part of Cabrera’s night had nothing to do with power. This takes a while to set up, but bear with me; it involves grit and is totally worth the time.

In the bottom of the seventh, with the bases loaded and one out, and the Padres up, 5-1, Stephen Drew squibbed a weak grounder toward shortstop. Tony Abreu, running from second, had to jump over the ball, screening Cabrera, who still fielded it cleanly and made a strong throw to first to retire Drew. Unfortunately, Cabrera rolled his right ankle while planting to make the throw. The trainer examined Cabrera, who flexed his leg a bit and ultimately stayed in the game.

In the eighth, Cabrera collected his third hit of the night, a bloop single to center. As he took his lead from first, the ankle appeared to be still bothering him. Pitcher Esmerling Vasquez threw over, and Cabrera snuck in just behind the tag of Adam LaRoche. Cabrera called time and flexed his leg a bit more, then took another aggressive lead, which drew another throw. And another. Then Cabrera swiped second.

He was stranded there, so the base didn’t matter. Still, that was fun to watch.

* * *

Chase Headley committed his second error at third base in as many games, had trouble getting the ball out of his glove on a grounder off the bat of Drew in the first. Headley is on pace for 162 errors this year. I love when people say stuff like that… as if…

Headley made a few nice plays later in the contest. Of all the things to worry about in this world, Headley’s defense at third is way down my list. He’ll be fine.

* * *

Chris Young turned in a vintage performance. One hit in six innings, 86 pitches. Nobody will ever accuse Young of being efficient, but if he keeps limiting the opposition to one hit, nobody will care.

The bullpen livened up what had been an agreeable walk through the park. Luke Gregerson couldn’t locate his pitches and suffered for it. Left-hander Cesar Ramos, whose inclusion on the Opening Day roster baffles me beyond words, actually made a nice pitch to Drew on the ball where Cabrera rolled his ankle. If Drew had made better contact, Ramos might have gotten out of the inning with a double play.

Thank goodness for Mike Adams and Heath Bell, who quickly restored order. What a luxury it is to have those guys at the back end.

* * *

For the second straight night, I missed Adrian Gonzalez’s ninth-inning homer. I heard it on the radio, as I was driving to pick up Mrs. Ducksnorts on my way back from two events that I’ll discuss in a separate post. I have yet to see Adrian go yard this year. Has he been traded yet? I wish someone would keep me in the loop on these things.

* * *

After two games, the Padres are at .500. You could say they aren’t half bad. It would be a stupid thing to say, but you could do it.

What more analysis can I offer? The Padres looked bad losing on Opening Day. They looked good winning in Game 2. That’s kind of how it works.

Ducksnorts Joins ESPN SweetSpot Network

by Geoff Young on Apr 06, 2010 (15) Comments

I am thrilled to announce that Ducksnorts has joined the ESPN SweetSpot Network. Big thanks to Rob Neyer for inviting me, and to Jamie and the rest of the ESPN staff for working their behind-the-scenes magic.

You’ll notice a snazzy new navigation bar at the top of the site. This provides links to other blogs in the network. There are some fine writers in our midst, and I encourage you to pay them a visit.

How will the coverage here at Ducksnorts change as a result of this arrangement? It won’t. (Okay, I get to contribute comments to ESPN’s MLB Power Rankings, which is pretty slick.) We’ll just have more readers, which reminds me…

  • To new readers: Welcome, and thanks for joining us. I hope you enjoy your stay and consider offering thoughtful commentary on the topics we discuss.
  • To old readers: Thanks for all your support over the years. None of this would have been possible without you.

That’s it in a nutshell: Welcome. Thanks. Rock on.

Fifteen Minutes of Optimism

by Geoff Young on Apr 06, 2010 (7) Comments

Well, wasn’t that fun? Two words: Face. Plant. I’m talking Julianne Moore in Evolution (yeah, I saw it… in the theater; I’m not proud).

I DVR’d the game and didn’t get to watch till fairly late in the evening. My favorite part? Falling asleep after Stephen Drew’s inside-the-park home run in the fourth.

I blame Jon Garland. He was awful in his Padres debut. Granted, four of the runs were unearned, but I’m pretty sure Everth Cabrera had nodded off by the time Garland got around to delivering that fateful pitch to Justin Upton.

There are three things a finesse pitcher cannot afford to do (I just made that up; it’s probably more than three, but roll with me):

  • Work behind in the count
  • Take a lot of time between pitches
  • Leave the ball up in the zone

Garland needed 33 pitches to make it through the first. He went to three three-ball counts that inning (five for the game, out of 21 batters faced).

He took forever doing it, too. Garland and Nick Hundley just couldn’t seem to get on the same page, and it was agonizing to watch. Kind of like Evolution.

He did not just make a second reference to that horrible movie.

Believe it, sister.

I don’t know how the fielders behind him felt, but Garland was putting me to sleep. The fans booed. Yes, this was in enemy territory, but people hadn’t paid to watch some guy stand out on the mound and think about stuff.

As for leaving the ball up, that homer he served to Mark Reynolds in the third came on a hanging curve. It started high and broke right into Reynolds’ considerable wheelhouse. The ball traveled “only” 386 feet because he got under it. As new Padres announcer Dick Enberg quipped, “I thought he threw those little ones back.”

Speaking of Enberg, it was a genuine treat listening to him call the game with Mark Grant. The Padres have had some good announcers over the years, but as someone who grew up to the strains of Vin Scully, I have a soft spot for that classic, old school style. Intending no disrespect to anyone else working on the Padres telecasts, Enberg seriously classes up the joint. What a great pickup he was.

The game? The Padres almost got something going in the second. With one out, Chase Headley pounded a double past first baseman Adam LaRoche and down the right field line. Will Venable hammered a ball to right but got on top of it, launching it right into Upton’s waiting glove. Then Hundley smashed a ball (pounded? hammered? smashed? what is this, a bachelor party?) right at third baseman Reynolds to end the inning.

The Padres scored in the seventh, but I never saw it. They added two more in the ninth on back-to-back homers by Adrian Gonzalez and Kyle Blanks off reliever Bob Howry, who perhaps didn’t realize the season had started and may have been “working on stuff” with a 6-1 lead. I have no idea; I was fast asleep by the time garbage time rolled around.

Eh, it’s one game. Get up, try again. Repeat for the next six months.

Best Case, Worst Case

by Geoff Young on Apr 05, 2010 (4) Comments

Opening Day is upon us. We are all full of optimism… or some other, less flattering term. I’m on record as saying the Padres will lose 85-90 games in 2010, but I also recognize that young, inexperienced ballplayers tend to be a volatile bunch that have the capacity to surprise.

With that in mind, let’s play a little game of “best case, worst case.” What are the extreme possibilities for this team, and what will it take to get there?

Best Case

In a perfect world, the Padres win 85 games and take a mediocre NL West. The number of things that would need to happen is almost beyond contemplation, but it’s spring and anything is still possible, so let’s indulge:

  • Chris Young returns to 2006-2007 form (170 IP, 3.30 ERA)
  • Kevin Correia duplicates his unprecedented 2009 success (200 IP, 3.90 ERA)
  • Mat Latos turns into Jake Peavy (let’s say career version, 3.26 ERA)
  • Mike Adams stays healthy
  • Luke Gregerson duplicates his rookie success (75 IP, 3.20 ERA)
  • Chase Headley turns into a Lyle Overbay/Kevin Millar type hitter (say, .280/.360/.450)
  • Everth Cabrera follows the Rafael Furcal path (say, .280/.350/.400)
  • Will Venable turns into Jody Gerut (v. 2003 or 2008; say, .280/.345/.490)
  • The Giants and Rockies aren’t as good as I think they are

What is that, nine things that need to happen? Realistically, maybe two or three will come through (I’ll go with Gregerson and Headley), but it’s nice to dream.

Worst Case

How about the flip side? The Padres could lose 100 games, but it would take some effort:

  • Chris Young maintains 2008-2009 levels of production (90 IP, 4.50 ERA)
  • Kevin Correia reverts to pre-2009 form (110 IP, 4.60 ERA)
  • Mat Latos and Clayton Richard aren’t ready for prime time
  • Mike Adams gets hurt
  • Everth Cabrera follows the Mike Caruso path and fizzles
  • Kyle Blanks’ foot flares up on him again and he misses significant time
  • The Dodgers and Diamondbacks turn out to be a lot better than I expect them to be

How much of this will come to pass? I worry most about Young and Correia; on the bright side, guys like Sean Gallagher, Tim Stauffer, and Wade LeBlanc are at the ready if needed, which is a far cry from Walter Silva, Shawn Hill, and Josh Geer. Sure, the Padres could reach triple digits in losses this year, but it doesn’t strike me as likely… no moreso than them taking the division, anyway.

Me, Elsewhere: Ducksnorts on SportsWrap

by Geoff Young on Apr 04, 2010 (0) Comments

Forgive the short notice, but I’ll be talking Padres baseball with friend of Ducksnorts Derek Togerson on NBC7/39′s “Sportswrap,” airing 11:30 p.m. tonight (that’s, like, an hour from when I’m posting this). We’ll be chatting about expectations for 2010, the influx of exciting young talent on the team, and more.

Tune in or set your DVRs. It’s worth it just to see my hair, which is currently going through one of its periodic awkward David Soul phases.

Big thanks to Derek, Richard, and the gang for having me on the show.

PadreBlogs.com Back Online

by Geoff Young on Apr 03, 2010 (1) Comments

I’m feverishly checking off my list of things to do before Opening Day and happy to report that another task is more or less complete: One of the casualties of my old magically disappearing web host, PadreBlogs.com, is back up and running.

  • Bad news: The old functionality, which identified and linked to the most recent article at each site, is gone.
  • Good news: I never loved that functionality. What I really want is a river of news.

I’ve seen a couple of tutorials involving Yahoo! Pipes to create such a river, but my kung-fu just isn’t that good. So, I make a humble request: If you have the chops and the desire to help the Padres blogging community, please drop me a line at info@padreblogs.com and let’s make this bad boy fly.

Thanks,
gy

Update: I knew I could count on you! Readers Vinay and Flash Gordon both came up with elegant solutions that allowed me to add river of news functionality to the site. I also have added links to Twitter and Facebook pages for the blogs I could find there. Thanks, guys!

Me, Elsewhere: Ducksnorts on Friarhood Radio

by Geoff Young on Apr 02, 2010 (1) Comments

Steve Adler at Friarhood invited me to join him and a distinguished panel of guests in discussing the upcoming Padres season on his radio show. Steve, Mike from Avenging Jack Murphy, and Rick from RJ’s Fro talked all things Padres for an hour (it’s a scintillating hour; feels more like 60 minutes). Items covered include:

  • How is new GM Jed Hoyer doing so far?
  • How is the new ownership group doing so far?
  • How does this year’s pitching staff compare to last year’s? How does it stack up against the rest of the NL West?
  • Will the Padres score runs at home in 2010?
  • Is this the year Chase Headley fulfills his potential?
  • What specific players or stories are we watching this year?
  • Which player will be most important to the Padres in 2010?
  • Which player is most likely to disappoint?
  • How will the division finish up?

We are an agreeable bunch, so if your tastes run more to people hurling insults at one another, you’re likely to be disappointed. If, however, you think that cramming a ridiculous amount of Joe Randa references into a discussion is hilarious (and what kind of barbarian doesn’t?), then you just might enjoy the show.

Big thanks to Steve for having me on, and to all the guys for some good conversation. Give it a listen.

Friday Links (2 Apr 10)

by Geoff Young on Apr 02, 2010 (4) Comments

Now with a 110% snappier introduction, it’s links…

  • Why The San Diego Padres Should Trade Heath Bell (Friar Forecast). Daniel advocates trading Bell for… well, I don’t know. It’s hard for me to make sense of this type of analysis in a vacuum. I need more context. Who are Bell’s potential suitors? What types of players should the Padres be considering in return for Bell? Who will show Sam the Cooking Guy how to make a better peanut butter sandwich?
  • The Need For A Front of the Rotation (Chicken Friars). There’s a new blog in town, and the early returns are promising. In this installment, Nathaniel Stoltz talks about the risks inherent in young arms and offers the Padres some advice: “Unless a couple of pitchers take big steps forward this year, I’d like to see the Padres select a high-ceiling arm with their first pick in the draft, and possibly their second pick as well. As the team builds to be a future contender, getting more potential aces is a must — the more you have, the better the chance there is that enough pan out to give the team a solid core.”
  • Padres Offer Usain Bolt a Contract to Play Center Field! (Morgan Ensberg’s Baseball IQ). Ensberg notes that some in the media have interpreted the Padres’ intent to be aggressive on the bases as a desire to have fast guys on the team. He talks about chess and game theory, and drops this nugget: “Spring training games don’t count, but messages are sent. Teams may say that it is just to get ready for the coming season, but that isn’t entirely true. Scouts are watching and opposing GM’s and managers are watching tendencies. I guarantee that every report is saying that the Padres will steal and try and take an extra base. Even though the games don’t count, their message is clear.” Besides, if Bolt isn’t available (shouldn’t he play for the Chargers anyway?), there’s always Miguel Dilone. [h/t reader Masticore317]
  • On the Road with Madfriars: Spring Training (Friar Forecast). Ben chats with John Conniff about Padres prospects, organizational philosophy, and more. Conniff on Everett Williams: “He impressed me the most of the three. Good athlete, simple, repeatable swing and a very solid idea of the strike zone for a young player. He doesn’t have the power of a Jaff Decker but they are similar in the fact that you can see they have played quite a bit of baseball. I think he could do pretty well in Fort Wayne this year.”
  • 2010 Preview: San Diego Padres (Hitting the Cutoff Man). Andrew Simon’s take is mostly review material for regular readers, although here’s something I didn’t know: “If Matt Stairs makes the team this spring and steps on the field for the Padres this season, he will tie a Major League record by appearing with his 12th different team. If Stairs homers for the Pads, it will be the 11th different team he’s hit at least one long ball for, tying a record held by Todd Zeile.”
  • Visual Baseball: Introducing the Paintomatic (Hardball Times). Kevin Dame offers “an attempt at visualizing a pitcher’s arsenal (what they throw, how often they throw it, and how well they throw it.) How well they ‘paint’ so to speak.”
  • Comparing CHONE and FANS projections (FanGraphs). Dave Allen’s mission is simple: “I wanted to see, broadly, how the fans’ projections compared with a computer-based system, like CHONE.” This, to me, is more interesting than comparing projections against actual stats because it speaks more to our perceptions of a player’s ability, which could be useful in many arenas, most obviously the fantasy space.
  • In defense of the Padres (U-T). Bill Center integrates UZR into his article, complete with a rough explanation of how it is derived. Truly amazing. Melvin at Sacrifice Bunt is also impressed. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • Padres’ 10 prospects to watch in 2010 (MLB.com). Jonathan Mayo provides his list. No real surprises here. He also offers an organization preview.
  • Predictions sure to go wrong (Friarhood). Jeff Creps looks into the future, and what does he see? “The Padres will be in first place in the NL West for more than 1 day, but less than 6.”
  • Are you worried about the right thing? (Baseball Reference). Andy serves up some good food for thought: “…teams with lousy relievers allow more runs when it counts. The difference isn’t huge, but it’s a real trend. The middle relief guys probably make the difference of 3-5 wins per year–doesn’t sound like a lot, but it could be the difference between your team winning 87 games and going home and winning 92 games and going to the playoffs as the wild card.”
  • Bad Baseball Hall of Fame (Joe Posnanski). Pos is “taking nominations for the bad baseball Hall of Fame.” You’ll want to get in on that action. [h/t Hardball Times]

Happy, happy, joy, joy.

Latos Makes Rotation, Geoff Makes a List

by Geoff Young on Apr 01, 2010 (3) Comments

Young right-hander Mat Latos has been named the Padres #5 starter to open the season. He staved off some tough competition from right-handers Sean Gallagher and Tim Stauffer, who will stick as long relievers, and southpaw Wade LeBlanc, who will start the year at Triple-A Portland.

As for Latos, he looked terrific this spring. I saw him twice on television; he was pounding the bottom of the strike zone with his fastball and locating two different breaking pitches. The Cactus League isn’t the same as the regular season, but Latos has the stuff and appears to get what he’s supposed to do with it. That’s a good sign.

Latos came up with the big club in July 2009 and enjoyed immediate success (4-1, 2.43 ERA) before struggling (1-4, 7.70 ERA) to finish the season. Hitters adjust, and we can cut Latos considerable slack for having worked a total of 184 2/3 professional innings (only 47 of which came above A-ball) prior to his big-league debut.

There haven’t been a lot of pitchers in Padres history to make 10 starts or more at age 21 or younger. Including Latos, the number is six. You know I love me a good list:

Player       Year Age GS    IP ERA+   K/9
Clay Kirby   1969  21 35 215.2  93   4.72
Al Santorini 1969  21 30 184.2  90   5.41
Andy Benes   1989  21 10  66.2 101   8.91
Jake Peavy   2002  21 17  97.2  83   8.29
Oliver Perez 2002  20 15  90.0 107   9.40
Oliver Perez 2003  21 19 103.2  74  10.16
Mat Latos    2009  21 10  50.2  81   6.93

Uh-oh, I smell bullet points:

  • The Padres were a bit pitching starved in their inaugural campaign (team ERA+ of 84). Kirby led the National League with 20 losses. He also threw some gems that year, including a complete game victory over the Reds in Cincinnati on September 10. Kirby went on to win 75 big-league games (52 with the Padres) before retiring after the 1977 season (which he spent getting pounded at Triple-A Hawaii) at the ripe old age of 29. In the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual, I ranked Kirby the #8 starting pitcher in franchise history.
  • Santorini’s shining moment in ’69 came against the Montreal Expos on August 29. Only Ty Cline and Coco Laboy managed to touch him in that game. Santorini liked facing the Expos. On August 19, he hit his only big-league homer in Montreal. The rest of Santorini’s career didn’t go so well. He went 8-14 with the Padres in 1969 and 8-11 with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1972. For the rest of his career, he owned a 1-13 record. Wins and losses aren’t the best way to measure a pitcher’s performance, but in Santorini’s case, a career record of 17-38 (.309) was well earned (83 ERA+).
  • Benes, I suspect, many of you remember. After his stellar ’91 campaign, I ran around telling anyone who would listen (and many who wouldn’t) that the #1 pick overall in 1988 was on his way to a Cy Young Award. It didn’t quite work out that way, although he did win 155 big-league games and finish with exactly 2000 strikeouts. I ranked Benes the #3 starting pitcher in Padres history.
  • Peavy is the best starting pitcher the Padres have ever had. He currently works for the Chicago White Sox. I’ve said plenty about Peavy over the years, starting with his time at Lake Elsinore. Since we’re on a list kick this morning, here’s a fun one for you.
  • Perez, of course, was part of the trade that brought Brian Giles to San Diego. My fondest memory of Perez is the time I sat on top of the dugout at the Q during one of his starts. My other memory (I had forgotten this, so technically it’s a memory of a memory) is of his California League debut, which was suspended due to a bomb threat. That was a weird experience, being evacuated from the ballpark without explanation.

So, what does any of this mean for Latos’ future? I have no idea; like I said, I just love me a good list.

Mini Book Review: Beyond Batting Average

by Geoff Young on Mar 31, 2010 (0) Comments

Lee Panas, of Tiger Tales fame, has published a book for those interested in learning more about sabermetrics. It’s called Beyond Batting Average and… well, I’ll let the book speak for itself:

This comprehensive sabermetrics primer will introduce fans to these new measures with easy to understand explanations and examples. It will also illustrate the evolution of baseball statistics from simple traditional measures to the more complex metrics used today. You will learn how all the statistics are connected to winning and losing games, how to interpret them and how to apply them to performance on the field. By the end of this book, you should be able to evaluate players and teams through statistics more thoroughly and accurately than you could before.

I first “met” the author on the old AOL STATS message boards back in the mid-’90s. He was one of the more articulate posters there, and his work has only gotten better over the years. This book is no exception.

For fans who are unfamiliar with or intimidated by advanced metrics, Beyond Batting Average serves as an excellent starting point. It helps readers understand why the old familiar statistics aren’t necessarily the best ones to use, introduces various newer metrics (and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each), and shows how to derive and employ each of these metrics.

Why did Panas feel the need to write Beyond Batting Average? He addresses this in an interview at Bless You Boys (which I found thanks to another review of his book at DRaysBay):

One of the things which I think sets my book apart is that I assume no prior reader knowledge of sabermetrics. There is so much more talk about sabermetrics now than there was a few years ago and I have noticed that more people want to learn about it. However, I feel as if the field is moving too fast and that a lot of people have been overwhelmed by the amount of new information. The purpose of this book is to put all the new metrics in one place and to organize the information into a coherent story.

Panas, who also is a colleague of mine at Baseball Prospectus, lays everything out in logical order and with simple-to-understand explanations, often including real-world examples to illustrate concepts. Beyond Batting Average manages to be accessible without dumbing down its message.

It also avoids much of the rhetoric and posturing that often accompany discussion of advanced concepts. If you’re looking for inside jokes or a smug sense of superiority, this book isn’t for you. If, however, you are new to the world of sabermetrics and wish to increase your understanding without being made to feel like an idiot, you’ll want a copy of Beyond Batting Average, which you can buy here.