Padres Destroy Braves, Pythagoras

by Geoff Young on Apr 13, 2010 (5) Comments

Who saw that coming? The Braves certainly didn’t. Petco Park is supposed to suppress offense, not play host to 17-2 thumpings. That’ll muck up the ol’ Pythagorean record for a while.

Five Padres knocked two or more hits, five scored two or more runs, and five drove in two or more. They went 10-for-17 with RISP.

A 10-run fourth? Clearly I should whine about the weather more often.

My only real complaint is with Kevin Correia’s nibbling. How do you walk Martin Prado in the third after jumping ahead in the count, 0-2, with Chipper Jones on deck? Then again, Correia drove in as many runs as he allowed, so we’ll cut him some slack. Continue reading ›

Not Ironic, Really, Just Coincidental

by Geoff Young on Apr 12, 2010 (2) Comments

Rain is falling and I’m trying to think of something — anything — to say about Opening Day. Well, it’s here… assuming the rain lets up at some point.

The Padres come home after a 2-4 road trip that may tempt some observers to go all Nile Rodgers on the team. I dunno, it’s six games; hard to get too excited one way or the other just yet. Still, a few things bug me:

  • Padres #1 and #2 hitters are batting .091/.123/.109 in 58 PA, with one run scored.
  • The much-ballyhooed aggressiveness on the basepaths has backfired more often than not.
  • Padres hurlers have allowed 11 homers so far, most in the National League.
  • Chris Young needed exactly one start to land on the disabled list, which is quick even by his standards.

On the bright side:

  • Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley have started strong.
  • Former first-round picks Cesar Ramos and Tim Stauffer are pitching surprisingly well.
  • There are 156 more games on the schedule.

Rain on Opening Day. Is that an omen? Nah, I’m pretty sure it’s just water.

Stuff I Mostly Didn’t See on Saturday

by Geoff Young on Apr 11, 2010 (4) Comments

I missed most of Saturday’s win against the Rockies. Caught the first few innings while driving to Elsinore, then heard Heath Bell’s high-wire act in the 14th. Watched a little of the rebroadcast on Channel 4 when I got home.

It will shock you to learn that I have some thoughts on the game anyway:

  • Mat Latos served up three homers in six innings. I didn’t see the other two, but the one he surrendered to Brad Hawpe in the fourth was a joke. That pitch coupled with that swing produces an out in any other ballpark. If Latos keeps doing what he did right there, he’ll be okay.
  • Speaking of Latos, he issued zero walks. He threw two-thirds of his 84 pitches for strikes, and went to three three-ball counts on the night (Todd Helton grounded out to second on a 3-2 pitch in the third; Chris Iannetta flied out to left on a 3-1 pitch in the fourth; Troy Tulowitzki grounded out to third on a 3-1 pitch in the sixth). That’s the right approach at Coors Field… or most anywhere.
  • How about the bullpen? Bud Black used six relievers in this one, and they pitched well: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 8 K. Great to see Luke Gregerson and Edward Mujica bounce back from rough outings. Cesar Ramos, thrust into an unfamiliar role, fanned both batters he faced (Hawpe, Ian Stewart with the game tied in the ninth). Ducksnorts favorite Tim Stauffer worked three innings to notch the win.
  • I’m down with the aggressive baserunning meme that permeated camp this spring, but the Padres need to be smarter out there. In the first, with Adrian Gonzalez at the plate and one out, Tony Gwynn Jr. got picked off second. In the fourth, with runners at the corners, one out, and a 3-1 count to Everth Cabrera, Nick Hundley fell for the third-to-first move. Cabrera followed with a run-scoring double that would have plated Hundley and kept the game from going into extra franes.
  • Earlier that inning, Will Venable knocked a bases-loaded triple to left-center. I love watching him run the bases. Venable is going to outperform his projections this year. I keep vacillating on comps for him; my current favorite is former Padres outfielder Al Martin.

I was going to look at some stats, too, but it’s five games. They don’t mean much yet.

Random Notes from Elsinore

by Geoff Young on Apr 10, 2010 (3) Comments

While the Padres were beating the Rockies in extra innings on Saturday night, I watched the Lake Elsinore Storm lose at home to the High Desert Mavericks. I ended up chatting with a friend I hadn’t seen in years and so didn’t pay as close attention to the action as I ordinarily would, which is fine because I see baseball games far more often than I see this friend.

That said, I can share a few observations… and a fun little tidbit:

  • This team has some fireplugs. Cody Decker is listed at 5’11″, 220 lbs.; Daniel Robertson at 5’8″, 185 lbs.
  • Decker showed nice opposite field power, knocking a double off the fence in right-center in the seventh.
  • Robertson made a terrific sliding catch in left field; former first-round pick Danny Payne did the same in right field.
  • Starting pitcher Chris Fetter struggled with his command from the beginning. He made Mavericks first baseman Rich Poythress look bad chasing a breaking ball in the first, but otherwise didn’t impress.
  • Ben at Friar Forecast expressed concerns about Drew Cumberland’s ability to play shortstop. I understand why. He committed three errors on Saturday, including two on throws. He also struck out twice and grounded into a double play in four trips to the plate. Tough day in the Cal League.

Also, the current Storm gameday program includes an interview with Padres Director of Minor League Operations Mike Wickham. He talks about a number of things, but the most interesting to me involves the evaluation of player performance:

We look at all stats and analyze everything. A player’s age for the league also comes into play. A typical Cal Leaguer is 20 or 21 years old. We also look at DIPS because a pitcher might have great stuff but their performance might not reflect that talent. We also analyze league trends and park factors (i.e., Elsinore is a pitcher’s park). On-base percentage is huge for us as an organization. The more players get on base, the better chance we have to score runs.

I don’t know about you, but that just made me feel all warm and fuzzy… which is good because it was freezing out at The Diamond on Saturday.

Kids Do the Darndest Things

by Geoff Young on Apr 10, 2010 (0) Comments

The boxscore shows that Everth Cabrera was caught stealing in Friday afternoon’s loss to the Rockies at Coors Field. What the boxscore doesn’t show is how it happened.

With the Padres trailing, 3-0, in the eighth, Cabrera slashed a single to left field, bringing up Matt Stairs to bat for starting pitcher Clayton Richard. On a 1-2 pitch, Cabrera broke for second.

He got a great jump off Rafael Betancourt, who had just replaced the dominant (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K) Jorge De La Rosa on the mound. Cabrera beat Miguel Olivo’s throw by plenty.

One problem: The momentum from Cabrera’s head-first slide pulled his back foot off the bag. Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, covering on the play, held his glove on Cabrera, who was called out. Stairs then fanned to end the frame.

In the bottom half, Sean “Out of Options” Gallagher coughed up four runs, including three on a mammoth home run off the bat of Clint Barmes. It was a fitting conclusion to an ugly game.

Someday, we’ll look back at this and laugh. Not today, mind you, but someday.

Minor-League Previews at MadFriars

by Geoff Young on Apr 09, 2010 (0) Comments

I missed a few important items in this morning’s linkfest. The full-season minor leagues are underway, and our friends at MadFriars have previews for all four Padres affiliates:

If you are interested in the minor leagues (and you should be; the children, after all, are our future), be sure to check out these previews. And visit MadFriars throughout the season for the most comprehensive coverage of the Padres farm system available anywhere.

Friday Links (9 Apr 10)

by Geoff Young on Apr 09, 2010 (5) Comments

I kind of went overboard today…

Gunter

  • Finally on board the sabermetrics revolution (ESPN). Bill Simmons? Oh, my. Good man, and glad to have you with us! [h/t Baseball-Reference]
  • Closer Bell opens door on many topics (Padres.com). Heath Bell has nice things to say about teammate Will Venable: “He’s showed a lot more power than I think anyone expected. He’s been very good.”
  • Mano a mano (Hardball Times). Jeff Sackmann gives us “a new way to measure amateur prospects” by answering the simple question, “What happens when they go head to head?”
  • Minor league club, major league hub (U-T). Several current Padres reminisce about their time playing for the Lake Elsinore Storm. The Diamond is my favorite place to watch a ballgame. From 2001 to 2003, we had a mini-plan and actually attended more games there than at The Q despite the fact that it was an hour further away. We still make it to three or four games a year. If you haven’t been, do yourself a favor and go.
  • Bruce Bochy book excerpts (Razzball). I’m not a great fan of April Fools’ Day, but this was good: “I’m smart because my head is naturally humongous. No joke. It’s bigger than Kevin Mench’s. I went through a whole career with one batting helmet that I’d re-paint each time I got traded. They used to call it a ’10 gallon helmet’.”
  • Get Your 2010 Results Before the Season Even Begins (Baseball Analysts). They pick the Padres to finish last in the NL West. That seems to be the sexy choice, although I think the Diamondbacks are worse. Sky Andrecheck also talks about the thought process behind making predictions.

Glieben

  • Best In The West? (Friarhood). Brian Koke provides “a ranking of the best players at each position in the National League West. I ranked each player by how valuable I think they are going to be this year compared to the other players in the division.”
  • Adrian Gonzalez’s opportunities (Sacrifice Bunt). From Melvin Nieves: “I usually don’t waste effort talking about batting order, the amount of time it gets discussed far outweighs its actual impact on the team. But batting Gwynn Jr. and Eckstein first and second exemplifies a poor approach to decision making.”
  • Buehrle steers Opening Day win (MLB.com). Wow. Click on the video to watch Mark Buehrle make a ridiculous play. I’m sure that’s how they practice it in spring training. [h/t Hardball Times]
  • Petco Park Tour on Opening Day (Gaslamp Ball). Jbox wanders around the ballpark.
  • The Padres Are Not Optimizing Their Lineup (Friar Forecast) Daniel doesn’t like the way Bud Black filled out his lineup card on Opening Day.
  • What Opening Day Tells Us (or not) (Baseball Analysts). Bill Parker learns us about the dangers of sample size.

Glauten

Globen

  • Number Crunching Has Its Place (Boston Globe). Bob Ryan talks about sabermetrics: “Much of the new baseball math confirms what we once felt in our bones. Didn’t we somehow sense that Matty Alou’s gaudy batting averages were hollow, and really not all that important in the grand scheme of things? Didn’t we somehow sense that players such as Darrell Evans and Graig Nettles, despite modest batting averages, were really quite valuable offensive players?” [h/t reader parlo]
  • Another TTM Return! Clayton Richard (San Diego Cardres). From a new (to me) Padres blog focusing on baseball cards: “I’ve also heard Clayton Richard is picking up a lot of the slack from Kevin Kouzmanoff as new Padres heartthrob with the ladies. Good for him. He is one of the very few lefties on the Padres pitching staff, and honestly, with this mediocre Spring, that is probably what got him the slot in the rotation.” I’ve added San Diego Cardres to the list of fine blogs over at PadreBlogs.com. As always, let me know if I’m missing anyone.
  • David Eckstein: Man of the people (Sacrifice Bunt). Ray asks: “Has there ever been a more divisive figure in Padres history than David Eckstein?” Probably, though I can’t come up with any names at the moment. I’m still trying to figure out why there’s so much hate for a guy that tries so hard and has overcome a lack of overwhelming talent to get to where he is. Speaking as someone who has been a stathead since the mid-’80s and who is very much aware of Eckstein’s limitations as a ballplayer, I like having a guy who hustles play alongside a bunch of young kids that are trying to establish themselves in the big leagues. On a somewhat amusing note, the last time I defended Eckstein in such a manner, I got called an idiot for acknowledging that he isn’t very good. Really, though, let’s be honest.
  • Major League Prime Projections (Baseball Daily Digest). This is “Rob McQuown’s proprietary system for determining the ‘typical’ prime-years season for a minor-league player.” The top 100 rookie-eligible hitters are listed. Checking in at #1? Jaff Decker: .272/.422/.572. Oh, wouldn’t that be nice?
  • Drive set Cabrera apart from his Padres’ start (U-T). From Tim Sullivan: “The Padres’ 23-year-old shortstop doesn’t aspire to excellence so much as he stalks it, wearing down its resistance by sustained effort and force of will.” This may be the first mention of “will” (other than Venable) I’ve seen this season. Where’s Schopenhauer when you need him?
  • Rancho Bernardo grad Dykstra seeks progress with Storm (NC Times). Quoth Allan Dykstra: “I talked to every single hitting coach the Padres had, and it got to the point where it was almost too much information and it was not good at the time. Finally the hitting coach at (Single-A) Fort Wayne, Tom Tornincasa, got me on the right track and we fixed it.” I’m the guy holding out hope for Dykstra. Maybe I can will him to succeed.

Got links? Leave ‘em in the comments, email me (geoff@ducksnorts.com), or hit me up on Facebook or Twitter.

Need links? Check out Ducksnorts @ Delicious, updated daily.

Mujica Loves His Fastball and So Does Upton

by Geoff Young on Apr 08, 2010 (8) Comments

Justin Upton’s solo homer in the eighth was icing on the proverbial cake. His blast to left-center extended the Diamondbacks’ lead to 5-3, which turned out to be the final score on Wednesday evening in Phoenix.

The result of Upton’s confrontation with Padres right-hander Edward Mujica may have been interesting, if predictable, in terms of its impact on the final outcome. Perhaps even more interesting, if maddening, was the way in which this result was achieved.

Before we go there, if you knew nothing else about a player beyond the fact that he is 22 years old and coming off a season where he hit .300/.366/.532, what assumptions might you make about his hitting tendencies? Might you assume he could hit a fastball? I might.

In fact, empirical evidence supports this theory. Few hitters punish fastballs with Upton’s regularity:

Only one guy in all of baseball is worse at hitting sliders than Justin Upton, and that’s Kevin Kouzmanoff of the Padres. Why Upton still sees fastballs is beyond me.

And beyond the fence.

I’m not too handy with gathering PITCHf/x data, but I can muddle my way through the basics. Here is a quick look at Mujica vs Upton:

  1. Fastball, 91.7 mph, ball
  2. Fastball, 92.4 mph, ball
  3. Fastball, 93.3 mph, ball
  4. Fastball, 92.9 mph, foul
  5. Fastball, 94.3 mph, swinging strike
  6. Fastball, 94.1 mph, foul
  7. Fastball, 93.4 mph, home run

Whose idea was it to work this sequence, and why did they think it would succeed? That is either stubborn, stupid, or both.

Not that it made a difference on Wednesday, but the Padres can’t be doing stuff like this. They lack the talent necessary to overcome such critical mistakes. Play smart, guys; you need every advantage you can get this year.

Tuesday Night: Everything but the Game

by Geoff Young on Apr 07, 2010 (3) Comments

I’ve told you about the awesomeness that is Everth Cabrera. Now it’s time for the rest of the story.

The Padres held their Preview/Media Opening Night on Tuesday. Director of Media Relations Warren Miller was kind enough to invite several bloggers, myself included, to the event.

I arrived at Petco Park around 5 p.m., got my swag bag, and headed onto the field. I don’t know many of the local media folks, but I ran into my buddy Tim and the guys from RJ’s Fro. We stood around sampling some of the new food the Padres will be offering this year (at the restaurants, not the concession stands) and talking. At one point, Channel 4′s Jenny Cavnar stopped by and we introduced ourselves to each other.

Then we took batting practice. I got in maybe a dozen or so swings, mostly fouling pitches off or dribbling weak grounders here and there. But I squared up on the last pitch and drove it to deep second base. And I didn’t fall on my ass. That is my basic approach to hitting: Remain upright at all times; everything else is gravy. I smell book deal.

After that, Tim and I went out and shagged fly balls. More accurately, we watched the Padres game on the video scoreboard while waiting for something to come our way.

It didn’t happen, so I glommed onto the RJ’s Fro crew again and we headed over to our second event of the evening, a most excellent meetup held by Steve Adler of The Friarhood at the Tilted Kilt, just beyond right field. There I got to chat with Steve, Peter Friberg from Padres RunDown, Flash Gordon, and Matt from Gaslamp Ball, among many others.

I usually watch games in my home or at the ballpark. For whatever reason (friendless much?), I almost never go to sports bars. But you know, we had a blast out there on Tuesday. When Cabrera hit his triple in the seventh, the place went nuts. It was so gratifying to be surrounded by folks who care about the Padres… sometimes I forget they exist and get discouraged; it is good to be reminded.

Big thanks to our gracious hosts for these two events. Thanks to Warren for hooking us up with some tasty morsels and the opportunity to run around a big-league field. Thanks to Steve for bringing a bunch of Padres fans together to cheer our team to victory. Really, it doesn’t get much better than that.

Me, Elsewhere: Red Sox, Yankees, Radiohead

by Geoff Young on Apr 07, 2010 (3) Comments

I tried to make the Opening Day matchup between the Red Sox and Yankees watchable by synchronizing it to Radiohead’s OK, Computer. The experiment, which is documented in my latest at Hardball Times, yielded a few fun results:

No. 14 is up for the Yankees. Odd stance. Waggles his bat a lot. “Keep breathing,” advises singer Thom Yorke.

Mystery revealed: This is Curtis Granderson, and he takes Beckett deep to straightaway center. Much more satisfying than Posada’s homer, which emphasized placement over distance. Granderson got all of his.

Another base hit, and Boston’s pitching coach comes out to chat with Beckett. Yorke closes with the line, “We hope that you choke.”

Radiohead is such a mean band. Big bunch of meanies, those guys. Anyway, you know what to do…