Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

First off, let’s get this out of the way: That was a horrible, horrible way to lose a game yesterday. One out from a shutout of the Yankees on their home turf. Boom. Boom. So much for that.

My hope for the Pads on this road trip was that they would win at least one game in each venue. They did that. But, as on their their last trip, they could have done so much more. Except for the Curt Schilling game in Boston, the Padres had a chance to win every game. They went 2-4, but could have gone 5-1.

But they didn’t. You keep giving great teams chances to win, and most times they will. And that’s exactly what happened. How does Trevor Hoffman lose home plate with two out in the ninth? No clue. Yankees probably don’t know either. But they sure knew what to do when he started falling behind in the count and serving up meatballs.

Coupla things we learned (or relearned), though, on this trip:

• The Padres are a talented ballclub. They’re good, but not great. Good teams put themselves into situations where they can win most of the time. That’s the Pads. Great teams put themselves into those same situations and then bury the opposition. That’s the Yankees and the Red Sox. Sure, they’re forking over a lot of money to make their teams great (nothing wrong with that, IMO), but they still get things done where it counts–out on the playing field.
• The Padres can play with anyone. They weren’t able to put away the Yanks and the BoSox when they had their chances, but I guarantee you the Pads gave those teams a much tougher fight than they or their fans expected. Johnny Damon isn’t the only guy on the East Coast who doesn’t know squat about the Padres. I’m sure there are a bunch of folks shuffling around Boston and New York right now wondering what’s wrong with their team and why they didn’t dominate the Pads.

The Padres outscored the Yankees and Red Sox, 28-22, on the road trip. They held the two best offenses (through games of June 12) in the AL to less than four runs per game:

          G  BA OBP SLG  R/G
Red Sox  60 270 354 444 5.28
Yankees  61 264 356 457 5.47
Padres   61 270 339 386 4.52

Check out the starting pitching:

             IP  H ER HR BB SO
Wells       5.2  6  0  0  0  2
Lawrence    5.0  5  0  0  0  5
Valdez      4.0  6  6  2  2  3
Eaton       7.0  4  2  1  3  4
Tankersley  5.0  6  3  0  1  3
Wells       7.0  5  0  0  0  4

total      33.2 32 11  3  6 21 2.94 ERA

Four stellar performances, one decent, one not so good. And of course, the Pads’ best starter is on the shelf.

No question, the Pads can hang with anyone. The next step is learning to put teams away when they have a chance.

A few other things worth noting before we call it a day:

• Kerry Robinson has got to go. It sure was fun to watch him fly around the basepaths on Friday, but even with three hits in that game (as DH, no less!), his OPS now stands at 609. Adam Eaton, who started Friday’s game, has a 633 OPS (lower batting average, same number of walks, three times as many extra-base hits in half as many plate appearances). But twice on the trip Robinson was caught stealing in crucial situations. His defensive reputation is vastly overstated, and he’s not terribly effective at utilizing the one legitimate tool he possesses. Of course, those three hits on Friday probably extended Robinson’s Padre career by three months (or more). Easier to remember him scoring from first on a stolen base attempt than badly misjudging flyballs or getting thrown out trying to steal late in games.
• Phil Nevin is swinging the bat very well. Looks like he’s recognizing that junk down and away and starting to lay off it again. Also, those homers he hit on the trip were absolute bombs. Sure would be nice to see him get on a tear for a week or three.
• Ramon Hernandez also is quietly putting up some numbers. He isn’t setting the world on fire, but I’ll take .259/.339/.414 out of my catcher any day.

Overall, not a horrible road trip. Definitely could’ve been better, but it gives the Padres a good gauge of where they are and what they need to do to get to the next level. Sometimes a few painful losses can be a good motivator.

Stuff I’ve Been Meaning to Mention

• Conversation with Portland’s Tagg Bozied (PDX Beavers)
• 2004 First Year Player Draft One guy’s thoughts on the draft.
• Weblog Review Pretty self-explanatory.
• Frinklin Speaks This guy links to Ducksnorts, and his site is interesting.
• The “Verbs Bad” Manifesto (via languagehat)

That’s all for now, more as it happens…

Does anyone know who plays for San Diego?
–Johnny Damon

Now that Mr. Damon is a folk hero in these parts (thanks for the motivation, dude), I thought it might be helpful to give him a brief primer on who plays for San Diego.

Sorry, make that first place San Diego.

• Brian Lawrence – He’s the guy who struck you out twice last night.
• Phil Nevin – He’s the one who hit the ball out of the park, well over your head and to your right. It was a bomb, I’m sure you remember it.
• Ramon Hernandez – He also hit a ball over your head and off the wall. You might know him from the A’s.
• Jay Witasick – You hit that clutch solo homer off him last night in the eighth to cut the Pads’ lead to 7-1. Way to go.
• Mark Loretta – He’s the guy who fielded your grounder and threw you out at first to end the game.

There are others, but this should suffice for now. We’ll give you more names some other time.

Dennis Tankersley has been pushed back to the New York series, so it’s Curt Schilling vs Ismael Valdez tonight: 4 PM, Channel 4.

Four runs in three games against the Rockies doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, but at least the Padres managed to avoid being swept. Brian Lawrence looked terrific. Unfortunately he made the mistake of surrendering a run, which cost him a shot at the win. Shawn Estes had no command (60 strikes, 57 balls; six walks in as many innings) and really had no business allowing just one run over six. Even the one run came on a double play with the bases loaded and nobody out.

The outcome was good, but the game itself was frustrating. Brian Giles went 0-5 with a strikeout and three (!) double plays. In his defense, two of those DPs were absolute smashes that Todd Helton managed to smother. Xavier Nady, in his return to San Diego (replacing the injured Brian Buchanan), was hitless in three at-bats and left five runners on base. Nady played left field and batted sixth. His presence pushes Jon Knott into Buchanan’s former role of–wait, Buchanan didn’t have a role, never mind.

On the bright side, Sean Burroughs knocked two more hits and scored the game-winner in the tenth after being hit by a pitch from Brian Fuentes. Burroughs had some outstanding at-bats yesterday. He singled to left on the ninth pitch from Estes to lead off the bottom of the first. (Lawrence needed just nine pitches to retire the side in order in the top half.) And in the tenth, after falling behind 0-2 to Fuentes, Burroughs worked the count even, fouled off three pitches, and then took one for the team. Two nine-pitch at-bats against lefties in the same game. Gotta like that.

The curious decision by the Rockies came later in the deciding frame. After Mark Loretta sacrificed Burroughs to second and a Giles grounder advanced the runner to third, Phil Nevin stepped to the plate. The Rockies had a right-hander, Vladimir Nunez, ready. But instead of bringing Nunez in to face Nevin, they had Fuentes intentionally walk him. Then they summoned Nunez to go after Jay Payton.

The move didn’t make any sense to me at the time, and it still doesn’t. Payton followed with a sharp single to right, game over. Who knows why the Rockies didn’t pitch to Nevin, and frankly, who really cares. All I know is the Pads won, and I ain’t complaining.

No Really, We’re Talking About the Draft

Sorry ’bout that, it was an exciting game. Also exciting is the prospect of having the #1 overall pick in the upcoming draft, which starts this coming Monday. Long Beach State right-hander Jered Weaver has long been rumored to be the most likely candidate to be taken with the top slot, but increasingly there is talk of Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew, brother of former first rounders J.D. (Phillies, Cardinals) and Tim (Indians).

The thought seems to be that hitters are less risky than pitchers. With Khalil Greene firmly establishing himself at shortstop and Josh Barfield on the way at second, there is the obvious question of where Drew would play. But talent is talent, and these things have a way of working themselves out. Of course, there’s always the possibility (pure speculation on my part here) that Barfield could become part of a package for the Royals’ Carlos Beltran. Whatever the case, middle infield depth rarely is a bad thing.

We won’t know for sure what the Padres decide to do until Monday morning, but I’m hoping that if they don’t opt for Drew, they go for Rice right-hander Jeff Niemann rather than the more ballyhooed Weaver. No disrespect to Weaver, but his main selling point is that he’ll be ready for the big leagues very soon. The Padres already have a guy like that in Tim Stauffer. These guys are mid-rotation types. Nothing wrong with that, but Niemann has a chance to be something more. His flame-out risk is much higher than Weaver’s. Meantime, I worry that mainstream folks have latched onto Weaver’s Nintendoesque college numbers this year and maybe placed unrealistic expectations on the kid. Comparing him to Mark Prior really isn’t fair to anyone. If it gets him a few extra bucks at the negotiating table, good for him. But wouldn’t it stink to end up as a solid #2 or #3 starter and be considered a disappointment?

Not that my opinion amounts to anything in the eyes of the decision makers (exactly how much money am I investing in this?), but I’m torn between Drew and Niemann. I think I slightly prefer Drew because of the lower risk, but it’s close. Without having seen him pitch, and relying solely on the judgments of those who have, I’d like to see someone else pay for the Weaver hype.

Those are my thoughts. Here is what some others have to say:

• Padres Focus In On Drew (Baseball America)
• Draft Chat With Jim Callis (Baseball America)
• Allan Simpson Draft Chat (Baseball America)
• Draft Pulse: The rise, fall, and rise of Stephen Drew and Jeff Niemann (Baseball America)
• ‘Dream Weaver’ show likely to produce sequel (USA Today)
• Ask BA (Baseball America). In April, Jim Callis said he’d place Weaver at #46 on the Top 100 prospects list, between fellow right-handers Clint Nageotte (Mariners) and Ryan Wagner (Reds).
• Ask BA (Baseball America). In March, Callis projected Weaver as a #2 starter in the big leagues.
• Adjusted NCAA Statistics: Introduction and Top 100s (Hardball Times). Not directly related to the draft, but interesting nonetheless. The attempt to "normalize" college statistics, compiled in vastly divergent circumstances, is ambitious, to say the least. But Craig Burley gives it the old college try (sorry, couldn’t resist). Using this system, Weaver is rated the #1 pitcher, Niemann the #95 pitcher, and Drew the #43 hitter among all (not just draft-eligible) Division I players.

And player bios:

• Stephen Drew (Florida State Seminoles)
• Jered Weaver (Long Beach State Athletics)
• Jeff Niemann (Rice Owls)

Padres are off tomorrow before opening a three-game series against the Brewers Friday night. In lieu of game coverage, we’ll see if we can get to some of that reader mail that’s been filling my in-box next time.

I’m more than a little disgusted after the last two games against Colorado. Adam Eaton actually pitched pretty well Monday night. One mistake to Jeromy Burnitz did him in. But two runs combined against Jason Jennings and Aaron Cook? Another bases-loaded, one-out situation that results in zero runs? Justin Germano and Khalil Greene looking like rookies. Greene has spoiled us, so it was surprising to see him commit two errors on the same play. Then again, it might be nice to give him a day off every now and then. Too bad Kerry Robinson can’t play shortstop. And where is the vaunted 800-run offense we were told to expect? Ugh…

Anyway, we were talking about May. The Padres finished the month with a 13-14 record. Fortunately, the Dodgers hit the skids and ended May in a virtual tie for first with the Pads. Unfortunately, the Giants started winning and turned the NL West into a three-team race.

So what happened? Take a look at those keys we talked about last month:

       G   IP  H HR BB SO  ERA
Wells  3 20.0 18  3  2  9 3.15
Eaton  6 32.0 42  8 10 28 8.16
Peavy  4 24.2 26  2  8 29 2.19

Nothing wrong with Wells and Peavy, but both landed on the DL. Eaton was healthy but completely ineffective. This is sobering. The Padres played 27 games in May. Eaton and Ismael Valdez combined to start 12 of those (44%). Here is how they did:

  IP  H HR BB SO  ERA W-L
63.0 89 15 21 41 7.57 1-7

The rest of the staff:

   IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA  W-L
174.0 157 18 67 156 2.84 12-7

Damn.

The bottom of the order was another key we identified. How did they do in May?

           AB  BA OBP SLG BB SO
Payton     82 354 432 537 11  5
Hernandez  65 277 338 508  5  7
Greene     91 220 308 319 11 24

Wow, Payton very quietly had a terrific month. Hernandez did just fine as well. The league appears to have adjusted to Greene. Such is the nature of rookies. Overall, no real complaints on this front.

There’s also been talk that Petco Park might be getting into some of the hitters’ heads. Let’s take a look at some splits:

                 home              away
           AB  BA OBP SLG    AB  BA OBP SLG
Burroughs  89 348 389 427   107 318 348 374
Loretta    85 224 287 365   118 381 420 525
Giles      81 272 372 519   106 292 406 491
Nevin      79 228 337 354   111 324 374 495
Greene     68 265 367 368    99 263 321 404
Payton     64 234 329 313    87 356 436 540
Klesko     55 273 349 382    60 250 352 333
Hernandez  54 167 237 259    77 299 389 481

Padres    709 238 320 350  1013 296 358 427
opponents 765 271 321 397   941 261 327 436

                 OPS
           home away  dif (h - a)
Burroughs   816  722  +94
Loretta     652  945 -293
Giles       891  897   -6
Nevin       691  869 -178
Greene      735  725  +10
Payton      641  976 -335
Klesko      731  685  +46
Hernandez   497  869 -372

Padres      669  785 -116
opponents   718  762  -44

Interesting. I’d figured Klesko and Nevin would be the biggest victims of Petco, but maybe I was giving too much weight to their public complaints. Of the eight regulars, four guys are relatively neutral, while four have astronomical splits. The sample still isn’t that large, but those differentials–particularly for Loretta, Payton, and Hernandez–are alarming.

If it were just one or two hitters, or if there were a guy with significantly better numbers at home, I might be more inclined to write this off as a fluke. But it sure looks like there is something about Petco that the Padre hitters don’t like. My suggestion, which isn’t terribly helpful, is that they get over it and learn how to hit at home.

Then there’s the question of pitching. Padre hurlers have a 3.98 ERA at Petco, 3.87 on the road. Odd to think that maybe the Pads’ home park is helping neither their hitters nor their pitchers, and yet they are in contention.

May was largely a month of disarray for the Padres. They lost two members of their rotation to the DL, while two others stunk up the joint. Their #5 hitter, unproductive for much of the year, also landed on the shelf. The club showed a frustrating inability to win games within its reach and did not separate from the pack in the NL West. The flip side is that the Pads didn’t lose any ground in May. Treading water at this point, waiting for guys to get healthy and hoping that the kids filling in for them can give the club just enough to keep things interesting.

Going forward, the Pads need Brian Lawrence to prove that May (3.19 ERA) is closer to his true level than April (5.64). They need Eaton and Valdez to get back on track, and Wells and Peavy to get healthy. And wouldn’t it be nice to see a Justin Germano or Dennis Tankersley step up and make a contribution.

The hitters need to solve Petco. Whether the park effects are real or imagined makes no difference. As a group, these guys need to find a way to put the ball in play and make things happen. Chicks may dig the long ball, but fans dig wins. The Padres have been outhomered this year, 52-34, but still have a winning record. If the big boppers in the middle of the lineup can stay focused on making solid contact and not worry so much about what effect the lack of homers will have come negotiating time, results will follow.

The decision makers need to make better use of available resources. The Padres moved in the right direction in May by jettisoning the likes of Eddie Oropesa and Jason Szuminski. The good news is that the only useless piece remaining on the ballclub is Robinson. The bad news is that the folks in charge don’t seem to realize how useless he is. Not a knock on Robinson as a human being. I’m sure he’s a perfectly nice guy. But right now, I’d send Eaton up to pinch hit for him if the opportunity arose. There is no room for a guy like that on a big-league team that considers itself a contender.

Lest we end on a negative note, here’s a little historical context. How this year’s team stacks up against other great Padre teams of the past:

             May               season
Year   W  L  Pct  RS  RA   W  L  Pct  RS  RA
1984  10 13 .435  93 101  92 70 .568 686 634
1996  17 10 .630 129  87  91 71 .562 771 682
1998  16 14 .533 142 115  98 64 .605 749 635
2004  13 14 .481 120 123  ??????????????????

First weekday afternoon game at Petco. Lawrence vs Shawn Estes. 12:35 PM, no television. Let’s not get swept by the Rockies. Not to sound desperate, but after the Rox, it’s three against Milwaukee and then off to Boston and the Bronx. Wins now would be real nice…