Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

It’s what the Pads are doing, and it’s what I’m doing as well. We’re going to cover a lot of ground today, so get comfortable.

First off, the Padres completed their sweep of Arizona on Sunday, behind more great pitching from Jake Peavy. The young right-hander allowed one run in six innings and now needs just 1 2/3 innings in his final start to qualify for the ERA title. If he qualifies, he pretty much is going to win the title. At this point, even if Carlos Zambrano were to throw back-to-back nine-inning shutout in his final two starts, Peavy would need to allow three runs or fewer in those 1 2/3 innings to finish on top.

Next up, congrats to Mark Loretta on becoming the second player in Padre history to reach the 200-hit plateau in a single season. In his two years with the club, Loretta has been one of the most consistent performers at the plate and in the field. He isn’t a household name but he probably should be. A pleasure to watch.

Speaking of hits, Seattle’s Ichiro Suzuki is making a serious run at the all-time single season record of 257, held by George Sisler. This isn’t exactly breaking news, but I thought now might be a good time to look back at our earlier discussion on Suzuki vs former Padre great, Tony Gwynn. Well, Suzuki is gaining ground but he still has a long way to go. No offense to Suzuki, who is having a fantastic year, but his current OPS of 873 was eclipsed by Gwynn five times. It’s also worth noting that Suzuki has only 36 extra base hits this season. If that number holds, it would tie for Gwynn’s 13th highest total.

And speaking of Japanese players, how about Aki Otsuka? He isn’t being discussed as a ROY candidate, but his first North American season has exceeded expectations. When Otsuka first signed, we compared his statistical record to that of former Seattle closer Kaz Sasaki and were hopeful that a similarly successful transition to MLB might ensue.

We also looked at each pitcher’s first two months in North America, where Sasaki had a significant advantage. Now that we have nearly a full season’s worth of data to work with, let’s take another look:

          IP  H HR BB SO  ERA BB/9  SO/9
Otsuka  75.1 54  6 26 85 1.79 3.45 10.15
Sasaki  62.2 42 10 31 78 3.16 5.17 11.99

Here’s how each of them did from June till the end of the season in their first year:

          IP  H HR BB SO  ERA BB/9  SO/9
Otsuka  50.0 42  6 17 57 1.98 3.06 10.26
Sasaki  42.0 32 10 26 50 4.71 5.57 10.71

Sasaki, BTW, won the AL ROY in 2000. The difference, of course, is the Mariners didn’t have Trevor Hoffman to close games for them and so Sasaki racked up 37 saves. But it’s pretty safe to say that Otsuka thus far has been the better pitcher.

Finally, you may have noticed a new logo up there at the top. I worked downtown for most of 1992-2003, and for much of that time I enjoyed a spectacular view of the skyline from the 20th floor of a building. My wife still works there, and I finally was able to get a decent shot of Petco Park from her office. The logo is taken from that shot, as is the photo below. Sometimes I forget what a neat city San Diego is. These serve as a great reminder to me, and maybe they’ll have the same effect on you. Enjoy…

Off today, then three with the Giants to finish out the first season at Petco. Pads need to average a tick under 40,000 per game to break the 3 million mark for the first time.

Apologies for the lack of recent updates. I’ve been busy contemplating some disturbing musical questions, such as whether it is possible to apply McCoy Tyner‘s use of quartal harmony to AC/DC songs. (Answer: In theory, yes; in practice, don’t go there.)

Anyway, we made it out to Petco Park last night and saw the best game I’ve seen Jake Peavy pitch in person since he was at Elsinore back in 2001. Actually, his line against the Dodgers was almost identical to the line he posted on June 30, 2001 while with the Storm. Yes, I realize that is a tremendously geeky thing to know. But I’m okay with it.

So last night Peavy went out and completely abused the Dodgers. He fanned eleven, including Jayson Werth four straight times. Eight shutout innings dropped Peavy’s ERA to 2.27. Peavy now qualifies for the ERA title, leading the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano by 0.37. Peavy needs to work 7 2/3 innings over his final two starts to maintain the requisite number of innings needed to win the title.

Phil Nevin finally got out of his funk, launching a rocket shot to left against Dodger starter Brad Penny. And Mark Loretta picked up hit #199 on the season. If it weren’t for a spectacular play by Cesar Izturis in the third, Loretta would’ve notched his 200th as well. Izturis ranged far to his left, made a diving stab and flipped the ball with his glove hand to second baseman Alex Cora, who fired to first to nail Loretta by a step. Great, great play.

But the big story is what’s going on in the NL West. What had seemed only a few weeks ago like a done deal is rapidly becoming undone. The Dodgers’ lead over San Francisco has shrunk to a half game, and even the Pads are only 4 1/2 back. (How huge is getting swept by the Devil Rays back in June now?) Los Angeles is playing sloppy ball, and last night Penny had to leave in the fourth inning due to injury after coming off the DL earlier in the day. If the Dodgers do end up making the playoffs, this can’t be the way they want to do it.

From the Padres’ perspective, there isn’t much point in watching scoreboards right now. The Friars pretty much have to win the rest of their games to have a chance. It’s too bad the Padres got themselves into this position by not executing earlier in the year, but the flip side is that all the pressure is on the Dodgers and Giants right now. And hey, the Padres did manage to clinch their first winning season since 1998. And they’ve already won 18 more games than they did in 2003. My preseason prediction of 84 victories actually would be a disappointment, as the Pads would need to lose 8 of their final 10 to reach that total.

We’ll do a full autopsy once the season is over, but we’re not dead yet. Hope is slim, but as long as there are games to be played, anything can happen. And in 2004, in the NL West, it probably will.

The Padres needed Adam Eaton to step up, and he did. Three out of four in LA is real nice. Now it’s off to San Francisco. Damn Brewers didn’t cough up Barry Bonds’ 700th homer so most likely we’ll have to suffer through that. My strategy is to plate 6 or 7 runs in the top of the first tonight, then serve up a two-out solo shot to Bonds. Let him do his thing, and then beat the Giants. Hey, it could happen.

In other news, with Khalil Greene out for the year, and now Sean Burroughs and Rich Aurilia unavailable, the Padres went out and traded for Alex Gonzalez. This is the older Alex Gonzalez, who has played with the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Expos. He comes to San Diego hitting .229/.265/.374 on the year. Gonzalez, Ramon Vazquez, and Dave Hansen (!) will be manning the left side of the infield for a while. Mark Loretta won’t be getting much rest.

Home, Home on the Range Factor

The other day I mentioned that Padre outfielders have much better range factors than Padre infielders. Got some good responses:

Range factor isn’t normalized — it’s merely the number of balls per game
that someone gets to. Not a percentage of balls hit to them. So basically, what
your chart tells us is that the Padres have a bunch of fly ball pitchers.
And aside from [Brian] Lawrence, that’s true.

Interesting. The Pads are 10th in the NL in groundball/flyball ratio. Here’s how the NL teams rank in terms of G/F ratio, infield range factor, and outfield range factor:

      G/F  IFRng  OFRng
StL    1      2     15
Atl    2      3      6
Ari    3      6     13
Col    4      1     10
ChN    5     16     14
NYN    6      4      1
Mtl    7     10      3
Pit    8      7     12
SF     9      5      8
SD    10     11      4
Hou   11     15     16
Fla   12     12     11
Mil   13     14      5
Cin   14      8      2
Phi   15     13      7
LA    16      9      9

Some teams down toward the bottom end of the G/F ratio spectrum have pretty large disparities in terms of infield and outfield range factor. Along with the Padres, there are the Brewers, Reds, and Phillies. On the flip side, other teams that serve up a higher percentage of flyballs than the Pads have similar rankings in both range factors: see Houston, Florida, and Los Angeles.

Looking at the teams closest to the Padres in G/F ratio, this time using actual values:

      G/F  IFRng  OFRng
SF   1.25   5.58   2.24
SD   1.21   5.32   2.27
Hou  1.19   5.21   1.93

Hard to draw any meaningful conclusions from that mess. The Astros have a bunch of fly ball pitchers, but their outfielders get to fewer balls than any other team in the NL. How about another angle:

     OFRng   G/F  IFRng
NYN   2.28  1.30   5.58
Cin   2.27  1.12   5.43
Mtl   2.27  1.26   5.43
SD    2.27  1.25   5.32
Mil   2.27  1.18   5.26

I dunno. Here we’ve got a bunch of teams with nearly identical outfield range but widely diverging G/F ratio and infield range. What we really need is a massive amount of historical data, a plan, and way more time than I have. But the impact of a pitching staff’s style on distribution of defensive range is a fascinating question. We’d probably need to look at strikeout rates as well.

Another reader noted the lack of left-handed pitchers on the Padres staff, which might help explain why Mark Loretta’s range factor isn’t as negatively impacted as Sean Burroughs’ or Khalil Greene’s. The idea is that with more right-handers on the mound, fewer grounders are pulled to the left side, hence the lower range factors. This reader also pointed out that Burroughs and Greene have pretty solid zone ratings, although he shared my suspicion of that metric.

I guess what I’m really trying to say is that we still don’t know a lot about how to measure defense. What else is new, right?

Aki the Ant Slayer

This is for Padre fans who aren’t in San Diego and who don’t really get to watch the team play very often. One of the great things about watching Aki Otsuka on television is listening to Matt Vasgersian yell things like "suraida!" when Aki strikes out a batter.

For all the play that Greene has gotten as a ROY candidate, no question Otsuka has made an impact in San Diego. He is very animated on the mound, and obviously quite popular among teammates and local media alike. Otsuka also is a bit of a ham, being featured in one of the more amusing television promos where he sings a song in Japanese to the befuddlement of his teammates.

More recently, Otuska has done a great ad for a local pest control company where he’s sitting at a picnic table and spots some ants working their way across the spread. Without missing a beat, our hero stands up, grabs a bat, and proceeds to smack the bejeezus out of said ants. Salad everywhere. Then at the end, Otsuka again bursts into song, this time alongside a team of uniformed ant slayers crooning the company theme song.

Point? No, not really. I guess if you need one, it’s that baseball is supposed to be fun. It’s not about steroids, or throwing chairs at fans, or forcing a team to play home games in two different locations that are nowhere near one another. Okay, yeah it is. But it’s also about a guy whacking salad all over a picnic table in the name of slaying ants, and then bursting into song.

That, my friends, is the game of baseball I know and love. Now let’s go beat the Giants this weekend…

After the obligatory fifth starter thrashing, the Padres came back to win the third game at Dodger Stadium. Brian Lawrence allowed the first five batters to reach base but settled down and held the Dodgers to three runs in six innings, becoming the first Padre 15-game winner since 1998.

The bad news is that it looks like Khalil Greene is out for the regular season with a broken finger. Brilliant rookie campaign. We’ll leave it to the powers-that-be to figure out who the ROY should be. Meantime, the Pads are still very much in the hunt. Rich Aurilia and a resurgent Ramon Vazquez will split shortstop duties in Greene’s absence. Yeah, it’s a dropoff, but these guys are pros, they’ll find a way to get it done.

Also picking up the slack have been Brian Giles and the long dormant Jay Payton, who now has gone yard in two straight games. I don’t know where the shame is in playing center field for the Padres, but it’d be nice to see someone step up down the stretch. I don’t really care who it is. Well, I was hoping it would be Xavier Nady but that didn’t happen. Payton? Sure, why not. That’s why the Pads signed him in the first place.

I guess the other big news is that Kerry Robinson got a base hit. Actually, it was fun watching him score from first on Ramon Hernandez’ eighth-inning double. He was running with the pitch and almost caught Brian Giles, who had a 90-foot head start. Man, if Robinson had consistently usable baseball skills, he’d be something.

Adam Eaton and Jeff Weaver in the series finale. Usual time, usual channel.

           IP  K/9 K/BB  AVG  OBP  SLG  ERA
Eaton   174.0 6.83 2.75 .270 .320 .442 4.91
Weaver  195.2 6.44 2.46 .252 .313 .383 3.77

Doesn’t look so hot on paper. Here’s hoping it’s good Eaton tonight…

What the heck, haven’t done one of these in a while.

7:08 PM Checking out ESPN’s Stat Pack. Great feature. Surprised to see that the Pads are running four lefties against southpaw Odalis Perez. Getting excited at the prospect of watching Terrence Long hit grounders back to the mound.

7:11 PM So much for Stat Pack. Channel 4 has Jay Payton starting in center field, not Long.

7:14 PM Sean Burroughs strikes out on four pitches. Entering the game, Burroughs was hitting .252/.292/.285 against lefties. Odd stat: two triples in 123 at-bats, no other extra base hits.

7:18 PM Brian Giles hits a weak routine grounder to second that rolls through to center for a single thanks to a bizarre shift by Dodger infielders. Giles had been hitting .220/.281/.316 against lefties.

7:24 PM Khalil Greene negates a spectacular stop with a throw that pulls Phil Nevin off the bag.

7:26 PM I take minimal comfort in knowing that Adrian Beltre’s OPS is over 250 points lower against lefties than against righties this season.

7:27 PM Beltre hits a harmless fly ball to Payton to end the inning.

7:30 PM Ryan Klesko strikes out on four pitches. He was the one lefty in the lineup hitting southpaws this year (.326/.377/.463).

7:39 PM Burroughs dives to his left, robbing Milton Bradley of a base hit. Burroughs’ lack of offensive progress this year has been frustrating but at least he’s still a terrific defender.

7:43 PM Checking Burroughs’ defensive stats. His fielding percentage and range factor actually are worse this year than last. He’s toward the bottom of the pack among NL third basemen in both categories. Vinny Castilla leads the league in range factor, causing me once more to question its usefulness as a stat.

7:44 PM Payton strikes out swinging at a pitch at his neck and a foot outside. Clutch.

7:48 PM Exhibit #2: Payton leads NL center fielders in range factor. He’s actually further ahead of second place Mike Cameron than Cameron is of third place Andruw Jones. Right. Jim Edmonds? He’s down near the bottom.

7:52 PM Interesting. Range factor by position, along with ranking among NL teams:

    Pads Rnk
1B  9.42  10
2B  5.05   8
3B  2.58  15
SS  4.27  15
LF  1.85   9
CF  2.84   1
RF  2.17   4

IF  5.33  11
OF  2.29   1 (tie)

So, does anyone who has watched the Padres at all this year think the outfield defense has been better than the infield? I wonder how much of this is related to Petco Park. Pads’ range factors each of the past three seasons:

    2004 2003 2002
IF  5.33 5.27 5.37
OF  2.29 2.22 2.19

Not much difference. Maybe it isn’t Petco.

8:05 PM Nevin breaks the scoreless tie with a jack to left. The pitch was up around his shoulders. Strong dude.

8:06 PM Klesko doubles down the right field line.

8:10 PM Ramon Hernandez drives a double down the right field line, great job of going with the pitch. 2-0, Padres.

8:13 PM Payton swings 3-0 with two RISP. Shades of Gary Bennett.

8:17 PM After getting two quick strikes on David Wells with the bases loaded, Perez uncorks a wild pitch, scoring Greene.

8:18 PM Perez walks Wells to reload the bases. WTF?

8:19 PM Burroughs serves up an 0-2 pitch to left for an RBI single.

8:20 PM Loretta just misses a grand slam to right. Sac fly. 5-0, Padres. This is getting fun.

8:24 PM Giles called out on strikes to end the inning. It was ball four, but who’s counting. Giles begins and ends the inning with an out. Perez’ line so far:

Inn   IP H R ER HR BB SO Pit
1-3  3.0 2 0  0  0  0  4  42
4    1.0 4 5  5  1  3  1  38
tot  4.0 6 5  5  1  3  5  80

8:31 PM Wells leaves one up in the zone for Shawn Green. Just clears the left field wall. 5-1, Pads.

8:32 PM Milton Bradley doubles just inside the third base line. Uh-oh.

8:35 PM Nintendo curve ball gets Jose Hernandez swinging. Wells has six punchouts through four. His season high in a game was seven in a 7-1 victory over the Royals July 4.

8:38 PM Perez out of the game, Elmer Dessens in. Yummy.

8:45 PM Klesko, after falling behind in the count 0-2, draws a 10-pitch walk.

8:47 PM Double play. So much for that.

8:50 PM Wells ties his season high by getting David Ross on a backdoor breaking ball. Wells is locating his pitches well tonight. What else is new.

8:55 PM Wells freezes Cesar Izturis on a fastball at the knees, outside corner.

8:56 PM Next pitch, Jayson Werth knocks a two-run homer to left-center. 5-3, Padres. Somebody guessed right. Crowd is getting back into the game.

9:01 PM Ramon Hernandez drills one out to dead center. Finley damn near pulls it back, a la Bradley against Nevin earlier in the season.

9:11 PM Green hits another solo shot. They’re starting to get good hacks against Wells. One out in sixth. Scott Linebrink is unavailable tonight due to back spasms.

9:18 PM Strikeout number nine is former Padre spring training invitee Tom Wilson. Wells has thrown 95 pitches through six. With a healthy Linebrink, I’d say he’s done. As is, the tempation to bring him back to start the seventh will be strong. Other options are Blaine Neal, Antonio Osuna, or hope Aki Otsuka can go two. More runs would be good.

9:22 PM Loretta now has 46 doubles on the season.

9:25 PM Nevin swings at a 1-0 breaking ball in the dirt. Runners at the corners, nobody out. What is he going to do with that pitch if he hits it? For a guy with that high of a batting average, Nevin sure does take some ugly cuts.

9:27 PM And sometimes the ugly cuts turn into homers. That ball was down at shin level. I don’t know he hit a ball in that location so hard. Expanded bullpen possibilities with a 9-4 lead. Andy Ashby? Steve Watkins? Maybe let Wells go back out there to start the inning.

9:30 PM Kerry Robinson pinch-running for Klesko. If you ever have to use Robinson, now would be the time. Dodgers need five runs before they get nine outs. When Robinson comes up to bat, there’s a good chance it won’t mean anything.

9:33 PM Robinson steals second, then third.

9:37 PM Wells starts the seventh. Ross singles on the first pitch. Wells departs. WTF? Was Blaine Neal not ready to start the inning?

9:48 PM Neal faces three batters, all three get hits. 9-6, Pads, still nobody out. Finley comes to the plate representing the tying run. Enter Otsuka. I was really hoping Linebrink’s absence wouldn’t kill us tonight. Sigh.

10:02 PM Otsuka strikes out Finley and Green, then walks Bradley. Up comes Captain Grand Slam (aka Robin Ventura) off the bench. Otsuka polishes him off to end the threat. The Dodgers have answered the three runs the Pads scored in the top of the seventh but at least the lead remains intact. Otsuka threw 23 pitches and likely will be asked to work the eighth. Again, more runs would be good.

10:06 PM Freddy Guzman strikes out on a pitch in the dirt; still not ready for prime time. Guzman and Robinson in the lineup at the same time is scary.

10:09 PM Izturis robs Burroughs on a ball hit back up the middle.

10:14 PM Base open, two runners in scoring position. Nevin, due up, has two homers already. Robinson is on deck. Announcers: "They might not pitch to Nevin." Wrong verb there, fellas.

10:17 PM Terrence Long bats for Robinson. Weak fly ball to end the inning. More runs would have been good. Dodgers have the 8-9-1 hitters due up in the eighth. Assuming they’re retired in order, that means the Padres still have to face Finley and Beltre one more time. And there’s a decent chance that Green and possibly Bradley will bat again. The Padres in the top of the ninth? Ramon Vazquez, Hernandez, and pitcher’s spot. Did I mention that more runs would have been good?

10:23 PM Otsuka retires the side in order on 10 pitches.

10:32 PM Padres go quietly in the ninth. Pinch-hitter Robert Fick and Guzman hit weak fly balls on 3-1 counts. Trevor Hoffman will try to nail it down against Werth, Finley, and Beltre.

10:36 PM Werth fans on a sick change-up. 73 MPH, unhittable.

10:38 PM Finley hammers one to right, just foul.

10:41 PM After a terrific battle, Hoffman gets Finley to chase a high fastball on the 11th pitch of the at-bat. Two outs.

10:45 PM Beltre watches a 3-2 fastball on the outside corner to end the game. Huge win for the Pads.

Whew, that was exhausting. Thanks for hangin’ with me. Tonight it’s Justin Germano against Jose Lima. Not a great matchup for the Pads, but you never know.

Splitting a series against a non-contender this late in the season doesn’t really get it done, but I suppose after Saturday’s thrashing at the hands of rookie Jeff Francis, things could have been worse. Fortunately, Jake Peavy and a 12-run ninth did some nice damage control on Sunday, sending the Pads out of Coors on an up note.

With four in LA and three in San Francisco this week, now would be a real good time for the Pads to get their act together. Some clutch hitting and even passable outfield defense would be helpful. I don’t know how many more bad routes I can watch, to say nothing of guys taking some serious liberties against those arms. It’s not good baseball, and it won’t help win games against good teams.

On the bright side, Mark Loretta is back in the lineup. He and Khalil Greene have been unbelievable up the middle this year. Greene was NL Rookie of the Month in August, and he’s been even better so far in September. I don’t know who will win ROY, but I do know that .295/.346/.544 after the All-Star break is pretty insane for a middle infielder in his first big-league season. And I do know that at age 24, Greene is already the best offensive shortstop in team history.

Here’s an interesting comparison:

     AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
KG  479 .273 .347 .447  .092 .174 .374
MT  607 .275 .349 .479  .097 .204 .377

Top line is what Greene is doing this year; bottom is what Miguel Tejada did as a 24-year-old. Greene’s numbers don’t quite measure up to Tejada’s (especially when you take into account the latter’s 30 homers to the former’s 15), but the fact that we can even make this comparison is pretty darned impressive. No disrespect whatsoever to Greene, but if you’d told me before the season that he’d put up similar numbers to those produced by Tejada at the same age, I’d have called the folks in white coats to come take you away.

Sometimes it is good to be wrong.

Getting back to Peavy, by my estimation he’s got four starts left this year. He needs 22 2/3 innings to be eligible for the ERA title. With his current 2.26 ERA, he’s almost half a run better than leader Randy Johnson (2.75). Assuming Johnson continues his present level of performance, Peavy can give up 14 earned runs in those 22 2/3 innings and still win the ERA title.

I’m sure Peavy is more concerned with finding ways to help his team make the playoffs, but leading the league in ERA sure would be a nice feather in the proverbial cap. BTW, twice this season Peavy has surrendered as many as nine earned runs over a four-game stretch:

Aug. 23 - Sep. 7
  IP  H  R ER HR BB SO  ERA
23.1 25 13  9  3  9 24 3.47

May 7 - Jul. 7
  IP  H R ER HR BB SO  ERA
22.2 25 9  9  3 10 24 3.57

Damn, that’s consistent. It’s easy to become a little desensitized to just how good this kid is when you see him out there every fifth day. His worst ERA over four consecutive starts this year is 3.57? Everybody say it with me this time: Damn, that’s consistent.

Okay, enough drooling over the future of this ballclub. The talent is there right now to make a run. The window is shrinking, but it’s still open. Gotta win every series. It can happen. Pads just need to execute and play smart baseball. Here’s hoping…

The St. Louis Cardinals right now are playing about as well as a team can play. They have the horses, they execute, they’re making the right moves, and they’re not shooting themselves in the foot.

The Padres, on the other hand, are showing once again that they can hang with the best but not actually beat them. They’re getting better. Tuesday it was questionable bullpen usage (Scott Linebrink came in last night with a 1-run defecit, further confusing the issue). Last night it was two homers in the first off Adam Eaton, Phil Nevin getting tossed arguing balls and strikes in the fourth, and the familiar demon of leaving runners in scoring position.

(Ted Leitner on the radio after Nevin’s ejection was classic. He cited the double-standard of a player’s being disciplined for using "objectionable language" on the field but not an umpire. Specifically, he chided plate umpire Brian Gorman for yelling at Nevin to "get the hell out of here" within earshot of women and children. Good for you, Ted. Good for you. And be sure to keep those women and children from listening to your broadcast and hearing you utter that same "objectionable" phrase.)

The Pads are a strong team. They’re doing a lot of things right. But they’re not quite at championship, or even playoff, level. Too many mistakes in critical situations. Even if they do sneak into the post-season, they’re going to get smoked by a team like the Cards that plays with machine-like efficiency. Still, it sure beats watching from the sidelines like in each of the past five years.

Jake Peavy goes against Jeff Suppan tonight. This is the one matchup going in that we knew would favor the Padres. But with the Cardinals, take nothing for granted. It would be real nice to leave St. Louis with a win. It remains to be seen whether that is in the cards…

Roster Movement

Robert Fick and Ramon Vazquez were recalled Tuesday, before the playoff roster deadline. They took the places of Marty McLeary and Humberto Quintero. Yesterday Kerry Robinson was recalled. Miguel Ojeda and Antonio Osuna were activated from the DL, making them eligible for the playoff roster as well.

To summarize:

• Playoff-eligible: Fick, Ojeda, Osuna, Vazquez
• Not eligible: McLeary, Quintero, Robinson

Also, Freddy Guzman has been dropped from the lineup. Despite leading the Padres to an 11-run outburst in his debut, Guzman is hitting just .188/.235/.234 in his brief big-league tenure. Kid might someday turn into a Juan Pierre/Luis Castillo type. But for now he’s a drag on the offense. No word yet on who will replace him in the leadoff role. My vote, not that I have one, is for Khalil Greene, who hit .290/.338/.580 in that role earlier this season (Padre leadoff hitters as a whole have hit .272/.319/.359).

I didn’t get to watch much of last night’s game. By the time I got home, Jim Edmonds was just singling home Scott Rolen in the fifth to give the Cards a 5-1 lead. The Padres had their chances to get back into the game and managed to cut the defecit to 5-3 thanks to the hitting of Brian Giles, Khalil Greene, and Ramon Hernandez, and the yeoman performance by Blaine Neal.

Then came the bottom of the seventh. Scott Linebrink had been warming up in the ‘pen, but because the Padres didn’t have a lead, rookie Steve Watkins got the call. No disrespect to Watkins, but the results were predictable. Back-to-back homers to start the inning. Cards up, 7-3. Game over.

From the U-T:

Bochy defended his choice of Watkins, saying that he chose against his well-rested setup relievers Scott Linebrink and Akinori Otsuka because the Padres trailed… "Two runs down, there’s no thought (of deploying Linebrink or Otsuka)," Bochy said.

I have two questions that maybe someone out there can answer for me:

1. Why would there be no thought of bringing in one of your top relievers late in a tight game of importance?
2. Is keeping your top relievers out of tight games of importance necessarily the most effective strategy in winning said games?

This isn’t the first time Bochy has brought in a less experienced guy over one of his horses in a tight situation. Back in May he chose Dennis Tankersley over Jay Witasick in a game at Philly. (Interestingly, I made the comment then that "I can understand not bringing in Linebrink or Otsuka because you don’t have the lead," which raises the additional question of whether a game in August should be handled differently from a game in May.)

I have no answers here. My hope now is that the good Adam Eaton shows up tonight and gives Bochy the opportunity to use his best relievers. Otherwise they might be rusty by the time Jake Peavy’s start comes up Thursday.

Padres begin their three-game series in St. Louis tonight. The pitching matchups slightly favor the Pads, but the Cards have scored 87 more runs this year than the Friars in the same number of games. St. Louis is averaging 5.35 runs per game.

Can the Padres’ bats keep up with the Cards’ offense? The 4.68 runs per game scored by the Padres this year would indicate no. But the 5.21 they score on the road and the 5.52 they’ve averaged since the All-Star break say maybe.

Tonight’s is the most even matchup, with Brian Lawrence (13-10, 3.65) going against former Friar Woody Williams (9-7, 4.07). Wednesday it’s Adam Eaton (9-11, 4.72) and the surprising Chris Carpenter (13-5, 3.61). Thursday Jake Peavy (11-3, 2.25) squares off against Jeff Suppan (13-6, 4.02). Figure that one’s in the Pads’ favor. Counting on the good Adam Eaton to show up for any given game is a dicey proposition, so tonight is critical. Lawrence has allowed just one run over his past two starts, both complete games. Of course, facing the Marlins and Mets isn’t exactly the same as going up against the likes of Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Larry Walker, Edgar Renteria, and company.

Attendance Matters

The players may not have fully embraced Petco Park just yet, but the fans have:

Year  Pct Cap  Rnk   Per Game  Rnk
----------------------------------
2001    44.8    26    29,726    18
2002    41.3    25    27,414    17
2003    39.2    28    25,062    19

2004    88.9     7    37,325     9

Perhaps not the most relevant piece of information now that the Padres are on the road, but interesting nonetheless.

Lawrence and Williams tonight at Busch. Usual channel, 5 PM start—plenty of time to catch the last four or five innings.