Once again, I find myself disappointed when in past years I might have been happy. Three wins in six games on the East Coast sounds pretty good, especially when one of your opponents is in first place in their division. But every one of those games in Pennsylvania was winnable. The Padres should have swept the Pirates and taken two in Philly.
There have been some positives. No more Eddie Oropesa, for example. But a few things that have happened of late got me to thinking. Specifically, I’m wondering if the Padres are making the best use of their available personnel.
Brian Buchanan
In the outfield, we knew that the starting three would see most of the action and that Terrence Long would get plenty of time (give him a chance to play, see if you can move him and his contract). Then Kerry Robinson came in at the end of spring training and effectively relegated Brian Buchanan to the unfortunate role of sixth outfielder.
Entering this season, Big Buck had a career .264/.332/.450 line in 704 big-league at-bats. Of current Padres, only Brian Giles (.261), Ryan Klesko (.239), and Phil Nevin (.210) had a higher ISO than Buchanan’s career .186 mark. Buck has been particularly effective against left-handed pitchers. Last year, in 106 trips to the plate against southpaws he hit .302/.415/.528. Over the past three seasons (2001-2003), his line versus lefties is .270/.368/.528.
Point is, Buchanan is one of the Padres’ best power threats and he’s been completely buried this year. The Padres have played 44 games and Big Buck has a grand total of 31 at-bats. He’s on pace for 117 at-bats this year. A little perspective: Dave Hansen batted 135 times last season.
Here is a quick look at the Padres reserve outfielders coming into the season (career stats through 2003, per 162 games):
AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG
Buchanan 373 16 35 101 .264 .332 .450
Long 613 16 47 92 .265 .317 .410
Robinson 257 1 14 35 .263 .301 .339
Okay, Long actually hasn’t been that much worse than Buchanan overall. Same batting average, just a lot emptier than Buck’s. Robinson’s batting average is right there with those of the other two, the difference being that he brings absolutely nothing else to the table in terms of offense (unless you count getting thrown out trying to steal with Nevin up as a pinch-hitter in the eighth inning of a tight ballgame; don’t get me started). If Robinson plays a passable shortstop, he might be able to justify a lengthy career in the big leagues. But he doesn’t. What Robinson does very well is run fast. That is a great skill to have, and I’m sure a lot of us wish we could run like Robinson. He really is something to watch flying around the bases. Trouble is, you have to get on base before you can start circling them.
Robinson is essentially a pinch-runner in an age where teams don’t really have the luxury of using a spot on such a role. The days of Herb Washington have gone and been replaced by the days of Brooks Kieschnick. The greater flexibility a player offers a team, the better.
Yeah, I know Buchanan isn’t exactly multidimensional either. But at least his one dimension provides tangible benefit to the ball club. The guy produces runs. Robinson produces outs. This isn’t a difficult equation to solve.
Unfortunately, Robinson looks real good running around the bases and so he plays. And Buchanan sits (and looks helpless flailing at Rheal Cormier sliders when he finally does get a chance). Here is how the reserve outfielders are doing through Sunday’s game:
AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG
Buchanan 31 1 3 8 .226 .286 .355
Long 69 0 6 11 .333 .390 .435
Robinson 44 0 3 5 .273 .313 .295
Buchanan’s numbers are down, but it’s hard to maintain any kind of consistency when you’re lucky to get two at-bats in a week. Meantime, the Padres are wasting valuable playing time on a guy who really adds no value to the offense. Robinson is fast, and he does allow Bruce Bochy to pull Klesko (who has looked more lost in the outfield so far than in seasons past) late in games. But is that justification for giving him 40% more at-bats than the best right-handed bat off the bench?
This doesn’t even touch on the fact that Long is outhitting Klesko so far. I don’t expect that to continue, but it’s a little disconcerting to see the likes of Cesar Izturis and Tomas Perez with more home runs than the Padres’ #5 hitter entering the last week in May.
Action item: Lose Robinson, add a backup infielder to the roster until Ramon Vazquez returns from the DL. Having Jeff Cirillo as the only infielder on the bench is asinine. At least when Vazquez was filling that role, the Pads had a guy with more than one career chance at shortstop in the big leagues that could fill in if needed.
The Bullpen
Thank goodness the Padres have a day off today. And the timing of Rod Beck’s return couldn’t have been much better. As we’ve discussed, Scott Linebrink and Aki Otsuka have been absolutely brilliant out of the ‘pen so far. But both of these guys have got to be running on fumes right about now and I’m a little concerned about how well they’re going to hold up over the course of a full season if Bochy continues to work them so hard.
Check out Linebrink’s last 10 appearances (you may want to get an icepack for your shoulder before you read this):
Date IP Pit BF
5/6 1.0 11 3
5/8 2.0 25 7
5/11 1.1 19 5
5/12 1.0 12 3
5/14 1.0 15 4
5/16 1.2 34 9
5/19 1.0 10 3
5/20 0.2 3 1
5/21 1.0 18 3
5/22 0.2 14 4
tot 11.1 161 42
He pitched in 10 games over a 16-day period, including four straight from May 19 – May 22. I don’t know that this will come back to haunt Linebrink later, but I do know that the only pitcher in the big-leagues right now who has appeared in more games and pitched more innings is the Giants’ Jim Brower. I sure hope the workload won’t be a problem for Linebrink, but let’s just call this a yellow flag that is moving toward orangish-red.
Otsuka’s usage hasn’t been as consistently heavy as Linebrink’s, but on a couple of occasions he has had to use a lot of bullets over a relatively short period of time. Otsuka’s first three games in North America came over three straight days and required 60 pitches. Then, last week, he worked both ends of the doubleheader in Pittsburgh, throwing 12 pitches in the first game and 22 in the second. After getting the following day off, Otsuka came in and threw 28 pitches against the Phillies on Friday. His command was not good, and he contributed to the Padres loss that evening.
Overall, Otsuka hasn’t been worked as hard as Linebrink:
G IP Pit BF
Linebrink 24 26.1 354 96
Otsuka 21 21.1 326 84
We don’t know what a particular pitcher’s optimal workload is, and I’m sure the Padres are aware of these issues. But I sure would feel more comfortable seeing these two keystones of the bullpen used a little more cautiously so that they can be around to hand the baton to Trevor Hoffman come September and beyond.
Action item: Use Jay Witasick (who has been pitching very well) in more high-pressure situations. Same with Beck as soon as he gets his feet wet. If the Padres can spread the work around a little, it will help take pressure off each individual pitcher. Keeping the mileage on the most effective arms from creeping too high, will help keep them healthy, which in turn will help the Padres win ballgames.
Young Arms
I’m not really sure how to categorize this. It’s related to the bullpen, but it extends beyond that. Roster management enters into the equation as well, but that’s not the entire focus either.
Justin Germano made his big-league debut in Philly on Saturday and picked up the victory. He was uncharacteristically wild (4 walks in 5 innings, after 38 in 169 last year), but that’s understandable given the circumstances. I’m still not convinced that Germano was the best choice to make a spot start, particularly in light of the fact that the Padres ended up recalling Dennis Tankersley anyway, but it’s not a decision that’s likely to make a huge impact one way or another in the long run. I can see the benefit of giving Germano a little taste of the big leagues and using the experience as something he can build on as he works his way back up to the Show for good (assuming he gets sent back to Portland at some point; one never knows). I don’t exactly agree with the line of thinking, but I can at least understand where the Padres are coming from here.
What I don’t understand is what the Pads are doing with Tankersley. It’s not that I think using him out of the bullpen is a horrible idea. Actually, from what I do know, he seems like a good candidate to make the transition. Tankersley’s got good stuff; maybe simplifying things by letting him "air it out" for an inning or two is the way to go. He sure had a nice 2004 debut in Germano’s start.
Then on Sunday, Tankersley came in to work the eighth of a game the Padres were trailing, 4-3. I can understand not bringing in Linebrink or Otsuka because you don’t have the lead. But why not Witasick? Sure, he’d worked each of the previous two days, but he’d thrown a total of six pitches over those appearances. And given that Witasick ended up coming in to throw 12 more on Sunday (after the damage had been done, of course), it wasn’t like he was unavailable.
Let me ask another question. When is the last time Tankersley pitched back-to-back days in a game situation? He made eight relief appearances for the Padres in 2002, but never pitched on consecutive days. Before that, the last time Tank had pitched more than one game out of the ‘pen during a season was 1999, in the Gulf Coast League. He worked five games in relief that year, and I have no clue whether any of those came on consecutive days. But even if they did, you’re looking at five years since Tankersley had done what he was asked to do on Sunday against the top team in the NL East.
My final question here is this: Given Tankersley’s lack of experience in the role he was asked to fill, and given the other available options, why the heck was Tankersley given the ball to start the eighth? The Padres ended up scoring in the top of the ninth. If Bochy skips Tankersley and goes straight to Witasick, that’s a tie ballgame.
But it’s not just the results that bother me here (they do, but that’s not the point), it’s the process. Bringing Tankersley in to work the eighth, in a role he’s unfamiliar with, doesn’t really help him at all. If the Padres are committed to making him a reliever (whether they should or not is another story), and they’re serious about having him succeed in that role at the highest level, wouldn’t it make sense to groom him for it in a less harrowing environment?
I’m not picking on Tankersley here; I still hold out hope that he’ll get it going one of these days. But I really have to question his presence on the big-league roster as a late-inning reliever when he has no experience in that role. It’s not helping him, and it certainly isn’t helping the Padres.
Action item: Figure out what to do with Tankersley. Is he a starter? Is he a reliever? Make a decision, and let the kid work on his craft at Portland. Need an extra bullpen arm at the big-league level? Might I suggest Bart Miadich. He may not be great, but at least he’s a reliever.
Final Thoughts
I’m not satisfied. I’m very pleased to see the Padres doing so well this late in the season. But I’m not satisfied. Aside from the performance issues (Klesko needs to start hitting), there are philosophical issues that are limiting the Pads’ success. This is a talented club, the best I’ve seen in San Diego since 1998. In order to maximize that talent and translate it into wins, Bochy and company need to forget about Kerry Robinson and get Brian Buchanan into more games; they need to do a better job of managing the key guys in the bullpen; and they need to come up with an identifiable plan for the young arms.
Off day today, then series in Colorado and Milwaukee. Here’s hoping the Padres can stop giving away leads and win the games they should win. That is what contenders do…
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