Drafting a Plan, Planning a Draft

by Geoff Young on Jun 03, 2004

Four runs in three games against the Rockies doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, but at least the Padres managed to avoid being swept. Brian Lawrence looked terrific. Unfortunately he made the mistake of surrendering a run, which cost him a shot at the win. Shawn Estes had no command (60 strikes, 57 balls; six walks in as many innings) and really had no business allowing just one run over six. Even the one run came on a double play with the bases loaded and nobody out.

The outcome was good, but the game itself was frustrating. Brian Giles went 0-5 with a strikeout and three (!) double plays. In his defense, two of those DPs were absolute smashes that Todd Helton managed to smother. Xavier Nady, in his return to San Diego (replacing the injured Brian Buchanan), was hitless in three at-bats and left five runners on base. Nady played left field and batted sixth. His presence pushes Jon Knott into Buchanan’s former role of–wait, Buchanan didn’t have a role, never mind.

On the bright side, Sean Burroughs knocked two more hits and scored the game-winner in the tenth after being hit by a pitch from Brian Fuentes. Burroughs had some outstanding at-bats yesterday. He singled to left on the ninth pitch from Estes to lead off the bottom of the first. (Lawrence needed just nine pitches to retire the side in order in the top half.) And in the tenth, after falling behind 0-2 to Fuentes, Burroughs worked the count even, fouled off three pitches, and then took one for the team. Two nine-pitch at-bats against lefties in the same game. Gotta like that.

The curious decision by the Rockies came later in the deciding frame. After Mark Loretta sacrificed Burroughs to second and a Giles grounder advanced the runner to third, Phil Nevin stepped to the plate. The Rockies had a right-hander, Vladimir Nunez, ready. But instead of bringing Nunez in to face Nevin, they had Fuentes intentionally walk him. Then they summoned Nunez to go after Jay Payton.

The move didn’t make any sense to me at the time, and it still doesn’t. Payton followed with a sharp single to right, game over. Who knows why the Rockies didn’t pitch to Nevin, and frankly, who really cares. All I know is the Pads won, and I ain’t complaining.

No Really, We’re Talking About the Draft

Sorry ’bout that, it was an exciting game. Also exciting is the prospect of having the #1 overall pick in the upcoming draft, which starts this coming Monday. Long Beach State right-hander Jered Weaver has long been rumored to be the most likely candidate to be taken with the top slot, but increasingly there is talk of Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew, brother of former first rounders J.D. (Phillies, Cardinals) and Tim (Indians).

The thought seems to be that hitters are less risky than pitchers. With Khalil Greene firmly establishing himself at shortstop and Josh Barfield on the way at second, there is the obvious question of where Drew would play. But talent is talent, and these things have a way of working themselves out. Of course, there’s always the possibility (pure speculation on my part here) that Barfield could become part of a package for the Royals’ Carlos Beltran. Whatever the case, middle infield depth rarely is a bad thing.

We won’t know for sure what the Padres decide to do until Monday morning, but I’m hoping that if they don’t opt for Drew, they go for Rice right-hander Jeff Niemann rather than the more ballyhooed Weaver. No disrespect to Weaver, but his main selling point is that he’ll be ready for the big leagues very soon. The Padres already have a guy like that in Tim Stauffer. These guys are mid-rotation types. Nothing wrong with that, but Niemann has a chance to be something more. His flame-out risk is much higher than Weaver’s. Meantime, I worry that mainstream folks have latched onto Weaver’s Nintendoesque college numbers this year and maybe placed unrealistic expectations on the kid. Comparing him to Mark Prior really isn’t fair to anyone. If it gets him a few extra bucks at the negotiating table, good for him. But wouldn’t it stink to end up as a solid #2 or #3 starter and be considered a disappointment?

Not that my opinion amounts to anything in the eyes of the decision makers (exactly how much money am I investing in this?), but I’m torn between Drew and Niemann. I think I slightly prefer Drew because of the lower risk, but it’s close. Without having seen him pitch, and relying solely on the judgments of those who have, I’d like to see someone else pay for the Weaver hype.

Those are my thoughts. Here is what some others have to say:

And player bios:

Padres are off tomorrow before opening a three-game series against the Brewers Friday night. In lieu of game coverage, we’ll see if we can get to some of that reader mail that’s been filling my in-box next time.

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