Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

A four-game sweep at Shea certainly is a nice way to start a road trip. Eventually the guys are going to have to learn how to win at home, but now isn’t really the time to gripe about that.

Great starting pitching in the series. The combined line:

  IP  H R ER HR BB SO
30.0 16 4  4  1  6 17

And all but one of the runs came against Jake Peavy in the opener. David Wells surrendered the other with the two out in the ninth inning of Tuesday night’s game.

Speaking of Wells, Trevor Hoffman came in to get the last out to notch his 32nd save Tuesday. As has been well documented, all four of Hoffman’s blown saves this year have come in Wells’ starts. This is such a freaky split:

         IP  H R ER HR BB SO W-L SV BS
Wells  11.1 16 9  9  4  1  7 0-2  5  4
other  32.2 21 5  5  1  7 30 2-1 27  0

Explanation? Most likely just dumb luck. Still, it is pretty bizzare.

Bye, Bye Big Buck

Brian Buchanan refused his latest assignment to Portland and became a free agent. The Mets signed him and he struck out against the Pads in his debut Thursday afternoon.

Sorry to see Buck leave, but it’s a good career move for him. With Brian Giles, Ryan Klesko, and Phil Nevin firmly entrenched at the corners; Terrence Long’s unmovable contract backing them up; and Tagg Bozied, Jon Knott, and Xavier Nady knocking on the door, there wasn’t a lot of "upward mobility" in San Diego for Buchanan.

Between management’s fascination with Kerry Robinson and a few poorly timed injuries, Big Buck just never got rolling this season. Still, the Padres acquired him cheaply enough (Jason Bartlett stands a good chance to be a decent big-leaguer but he wasn’t going to pass Khalil Greene any time soon) and he put up two solid seasons with the club before getting buried this year. His final line with the Padres:

 AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG
350 48 101 17  2 16  48 39 96 .260 .339 .457

Buchanan turned 31 just last month, so he should still have a few good years left. Here’s wishing him the best.

Chris Oxspring

Finally, congrats to Chris Oxspring and the Australian team for their silver medal at Athens. Oxspring has been one of my wife’s faves since she saw him being very generous with his time at Elsinore to a bunch of little kids who demanded his time while he was charting pitches behind the plate at a game. He also shut out Japan to put his country into the gold medal game against Cuba. Remember the name. You’ll see him in a Padre uni at some point in 2005.

Still can’t talk about Wednesday, but I’m getting better. I started somewhere around "apopleptic" and I’m hoping to reach "bemused" or even "detached" in the near future. Just want to make sure I don’t overshoot…

Lots to discuss, but I’m in no mood to talk after that one. Analysis of last night’s game? Two words: It stunk.

Hey, if you can’t wax poetic, at least you can be honest. I’ll try to be more sociable next week, after the swelling from repeatedly banging my head against the wall has subsided.

As a police officer who issued me a speeding ticket once said, "Have a better day."

Freddy Guzman makes his big-league debut and the Padres score 11 runs at home. Interesting. Guzman, starting in center field and leading off, singled on the second pitch he saw from Jaret Wright, then proceeded to drive the Braves’ starter to distraction.

How much of it was due to Guzman’s presence on the bases and how much to home plate umpire Tim McClelland’s tight strike zone is anybody’s guess, but Wright ended up throwing 50 pitches before being yanked with two outs in the first inning. Guzman walked with the bases loaded later in the inning to drive in his first run.

It’s only one game, but Guzman sure seemed to bring an energy to the offense that has been missing. Khalil Greene had been doing a terrific job in the leadoff spot of late, but he’s probably better suited to hitting down in the order right now. And maybe moving Sean Burroughs down to the #6 hole will allow him to concentrate more on driving the ball and not just being content to slap it past the shortstop.

Other encouraging sights from last night:

• Three hits each from Brian Giles and Ramon Hernandez. Giles was a triple shy of the cycle and also drew two walks.
• Phil Nevin knocking one out to deep right-center. His bomb came just after Giles’ in the second. It was the first time the Padres had hit back-to-back homers since last April, when Mark Kotsay and Ryan Klesko did it.
• Two more hits from Greene and Mark Loretta. Yawn, what else is new.
• Another sick outing from Jake Peavy. A single and a homer over seven innings. And the homer could have been avoided. The pitch before Chipper Jones went yard, he hit a pop foul down the third base line that Burroughs almost caught. From the replay, it looked like Greene might have had a better shot. But now we’re really nitpicking.
• Dave Hansen finally got a hit in his second tour of duty with the Pads. Singled in his 14th plate appearance since coming back over from Seattle.

With Guzman coming up from Portland, Rod Beck is released. Beck, last year’s great story, missed a good chunk of this season due to personal issues and never really got into a groove. Poor velocity, poor command. Bad combination. Still, I’ll rememeber him fondly for being one of the few bright spots in a horrendous 2003.

The one down note in Tuesday’s game was an injury to Jay Witasick. Apparently he pulled a rib muscle while warming up. He is expected to land on the DL. Early line is on Marty McLeary being recalled from Portland.

Rubber match tonight: David Wells vs Paul Byrd. Another win would be good…

Padres won their second straight road series, taking two of three from the Reds this weekend. Good offensive performances from pretty much every spot in the lineup. Real strong outing from Adam Eaton Sunday afternoon. His work in the fifth, striking out Adam Dunn and Willy Mo Peña with the bases loaded, was clutch. Eaton also doubled twice, scoring and driving in two runs.

Brian Giles is scuffling. He’s hitting just .198/.291/.297 since the All-Star break. When he’s going right, Giles’ m.o. is to get ahead in the count and drive his pitch. Right now he’s either not getting a good hitter’s count or, more often, getting a good count and missing his pitch. It’s frustrating enough to watch; I can only imagine how frustrating it is to experience first-hand.

There is some sentiment that the Pads would be better off not having traded Jason Bay and Oliver Perez for Giles, but that opinion requires knowledge that nobody had at the time the deal was made. We knew there was a chance Bay and Perez would develop into quality big-league players, but we didn’t know how quickly it would happen and to what degree. Perez, in particular, is a much more disciplined pitcher than he was in San Diego.

The Friars gave up quality to get quality. They were moving into a new ballpark financed in large part by the citizens of San Diego. It would be very difficult in those circumstances not to make a signficant move that demonstrated some commitment to fielding a winning ballclub. No, the trade hasn’t worked out as well for the Padres as we expected, but who’s to say that Bay or Perez would’ve blossomed as quickly if they’d remained here? If we’re going to second-guess based on outcomes, we might as well run Kevin Towers over the coals for giving up on Jaret Wright too soon. Bottom line: The trade helped both clubs achieve their respective goals. No regrets. That said, it’d be nice to see Giles catch fire soon.

Eaton, meantime, remains something of an enigma. In terms of pure stuff, he’s right there with Jake Peavy, but the results aren’t there. Sunday marked Eaton’s 100th big-league start. And although he’s put up some solid numbers, it sure would be nice to see a little more consistency out of him at this stage in his career. I still think Eaton’s got a chance to be a dominant starter in this league. Here is where I remind myself that he doesn’t turn 27 until November and that he’s ahead of another enigmatic right-hander who eventually became a terrific starter, Matt Clement. Here’s how both looked at age 26:

            IP  ERA  H/9 BB/9 SO/9 BB/SO HR/9
Clement  399.1 4.82 8.99 4.91 7.17  1.46 0.90
Eaton*   611.1 4.40 8.64 3.27 7.02  2.15 1.21

*Through games of August 15, 2004.

Gotta feel pretty good, too, having Darren Balsley work with him. One of these days it’s going to click for Eaton. I thought it would be this season, but maybe I was a year early. He’s going to be a good one.

Speaking of good ones, how about Khalil Greene? He smacked two doubles and two homers in Friday night’s game. What the box score doesn’t tell you is that he also made a spectacular defensive play and almost hit a third ball out of the park in his final at-bat. And on Saturday, even though he went hitless, he absolutely smoked two pitches. One took Peñ to the wall in left-center, the other was a laser shot right at Dunn.

Bold and reckless prediction not based on statistics: Greene will hit 20-25 homers next year. He is a very strong young kid who is still learning to hit at the big-league level. His approach at the plate is so far beyond what I’d expected at this stage. His batting average is right at what I thought would be his best-case scenario, but his plate discipline and power are better than I’d figured they’d be. Sure, Greene is striking out a lot, but he’s also walking a lot and hitting a ton of extra base hits. It also seems like he makes adjustments better than a lot of players with so little experience at the highest level. Check this out:

       AB   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H BB/PA*
Apr    79 .304 .368 .456 .152 .417  .081
May    91 .220 .308 .319 .099 .250  .108
Jun    84 .262 .340 .381 .119 .273  .097
Jul    81 .272 .374 .444 .172 .364  .138
Aug**  55 .255 .328 .491 .236 .500  .083

*For our purposes, PA is AB + BB.
**Through games of August 15, 2004.

Interesting to watch. The stats correlate pretty well to visual observations. Greene started out hot, the league came up with a "book" on him (breaking balls off the plate), Greene made the adjustment and started driving the ball. I don’t know how much of a batting average he’ll end up hitting for (although I’m starting to realize that you don’t rule anything out with Greene), but I believe he’s just scratching the surface of his overall offensive potential. The comparisons to Rich Aurilia are looking pretty good to me right now. Here are the numbers posted in each of their first full season:

        Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H BB/PA*
Aurilia  26 413 .266 .319 .407 .141 .345  .070
Greene** 24 385 .262 .345 .413 .151 .356  .105

*For our purposes, PA is AB + BB.
**Through games of August 15, 2004.

Finally, let’s take a quick look at Greene this year vs his minor-league record:

           AB   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H BB/PA*
minors    768 .290 .349 .444 .154 .318  .065
majors**  385 .262 .345 .413 .151 .356  .105

*For our purposes, PA is AB + BB.
**Through games of August 15, 2004.

I don’t want to overhype the kid or jinx him, but frankly, he wasn’t supposed to provide this much offense right away. His batting average has dropped a little in the Show, but his power numbers have held and his plate discipline has actually improved. And of course, his defense is way better than advertised.

More Nevin

One story that shouldn’t be missed is that of Phil Nevin catching the final four innings of Sunday’s game. With Ramon Hernandez unavailable due to the birth of he and his wife’s second child, Dave Hansen was listed as the emergency catcher in case something happened to Miguel Ojeda. Sure enough, Ojeda was plunked on the left wrist by a fastball in the top of the sixth and couldn’t continue behind the plate. But instead of Hansen, it was Phil Nevin who strapped on the gear and finished the game. It was Nevin’s first time catching in a big-league game in over five years.

Nevin has (deservedly) taken a lot of heat recently for opening his mouth at inopportune times, but if anyone needed a reminder of his desire and his value to the Padres, his actions in Sunday’s game sure helped. That was leadership. That was getting the job done.

Other Stuff

• Speedy Guzman is on fast track to big leagues (NC Times). Talk is heating up that Freddy Guzman could be up and starting in center field with the big club as early as this week. Elsinore batting coach Mike Davis, compares Guzman favorably to Davis’ former teammate, Rickey Henderson. I’ve seen Guzman play a handful of times, and he strikes me as more in the mold of guys like Luis Castillo, Juan Pierre, and Alex Sanchez.
• Padres like look of Bevos, darn it (Portland Tribune). Towers talks about some of the guys currently at Portland.
• Conversation with Beavers Pitching Coach Tom Brown (PDX Beavers). Interesting stuff. On Dennis Tankersley: "…He’s not an impact guy. But he is an everyday big league pitcher, he just needs a chance." Brown also has some encouraging words about former first-round pick Mike Bynum and his chances as a reliever.

That’s all for now. Braves in town for three. Sterling Hitchcock vs Mike Hampton tonight; usual channel, usual time. Three-way tie for the wild card. Let’s see if we can keep the heat on the Giants and Cubbies…

Two out of three at Wrigley ain’t bad. Once again, I didn’t see the game so I can’t really offer commentary beyond the obvious, i.e., we needed that one.

Instead, today we’ll talk about something I’ve been thinking about for a while: proper allocation of available resources. The other day one of my regulars wrote to me asking about Bruce Bochy’s fascination with Terrence Long. This was after Long grounded into a double play with the bases loaded against a lefty at a key point in Tuesday’s game. The question of why Long was allowed to bat in that situation with other options available is one that neither of us was able to answer.

Fortunately, Ramon Hernandez bailed the Padres out of that one by smacking a three-run homer. Yesterday, Long again grounded into a bases-loaded double play late in the game against a southpaw. Again there were options available that were not utilized. Again there was no obvious explanation.

This isn’t a dig against Long, who actually is performing better than most of us expected in more playing time than we’d wanted to see him get. But there are some curiosities in usage patterns that fall somewhere between weird and disturbing, depending on circumstances.

I was talking with another buddy a couple days ago about what the Padres need to do to get to the next level if they don’t make it to the playoffs this year. As far as actual on-the-field moves, I figured a legit #5 starter and a better bench would help, but that the main keys would be continued growth from the youngsters and continued health from the big boppers.

But looking a little deeper, I wondered about some of the decisions that have been made over the past few years in terms of both populating the 25-man roster and maximizing that roster’s efficiency. It’s easier to dismiss some of these things when the team is going nowhere, although so much time wasted on the likes of Deivi Cruz is still a source of frustration.

Now that the Padres are actually making some noise, the decisions to flirt with the Rule V draft, to hang onto and use a lefty reliever in crucial situations solely on the basis of his being left-handed (as opposed to a qualified big-league reliever), to bury one of your best hitters off the bench from the previous season in favor of a guy whose only semi-usable skill is his speed, and so forth loom larger than in the past. Long and Jeff Cirillo I understand. Those were bad contracts acquired to take other bad contracts off the Padres’ hands. Sometimes you get Rondell White, sometimes you end up with Long and Cirillo.

Never mind for now the fact that bad contracts were tendered in the first place; that’s another rant for another day. But given the hand that was dealt, I’m not sure the Padres have managed their resources in the best way possible. I have a few specific issues:

• Ramon Vazquez and Brian Buchanan. Both of these guys were key contributors last year. Vazquez had some trouble adapting to his new role coming off the bench and battled injuries, but he deserved more of an opportunity than he got. Same with Buchanan. How many times did we have to watch Kerry Robinson come up to pinch-hit in a crucial situation against a right-hander early in the season? How many times did a game end without the Pads’ best bench hitter even making an appearance? They’re paying for it now. Where was Buchanan yesterday when Long grounded into that double play against Mike Remlinger? Where would Buck have been if he’d had more regular playing time earlier in the season? Speculation, sure, but when Buchanan has been given the oppportunity in the past, he’s contributed. This year he has been reduced to a spectator. Why? Essentially so Robinson could play. That’s inexcusable.
• Jon Knott and Xavier Nady. Why bring these kids up from Triple-A if they’re not going to play? Make a decision. Either they’re ready to help or they’re not. Calling them up so they can ride pine makes no sense. Are they helping the Padres? No. Are they advancing their own careers? No. So what’s the point? Who benefits from this arrangement?
• Eddie Oropesa and Jason Szuminski. Oropesa hasn’t demonstrated the ability to do anything in the big leagues beyond throw a baseball with his left hand, Szuminski isn’t ready for the Show but has to stick on the roster or be given back to the Cubs. Like Kory DeHaan, Donaldo Mendez, and others, the real question is: Who cares? These are all potentially useful players whose best chance of realizing said potential is by not being left to rot on the bench of a big-league team while they should be honing their craft at Double- or Triple-A. Finding bargains is great, but this isn’t the way to do it. You want examples of bargains? Develop your own guys (Jake Peavy, Sean Burroughs, Khalil Greene), trade for someone else’s prospects (Adam Eaton), sign guys that are good but unknown or unheralded (Aki Otsuka, Mark Loretta). Steer clear of the Rule V draft. The exceptions make for great copy, but the risk is not worth it.
• Justin Germano, Brian Sweeney, and Dennis Tankersley. Same comment as for Knott and Nady applies here. Germano got a reasonable shot, the other two really didn’t. I know I’m not the only one who still doesn’t understand what Tankersley did to deserve a demotion. Don’t get me wrong, Ismael Valdez and his nine wins were a great story, but he should not have been standing in the way of these guys.
• Kerry Robinson. Not much more to say that hasn’t already been said. He’s very fast but he doesn’t put his speed to particularly good use on a baseball field. Doesn’t do anything else very well. Very frustrating to think how much time he got early in the season at the expense of better players.
• Darren Bragg. Solid big-league bench jockey who can hit and play all three outfield positions. Discarded before he had a chance to show what he could do. Unlike Robinson, he could have made a positive contribution to this club.

I’m sure there are others I’m forgetting, but it’s late and I’m tired. The larger point is that now that our neighbors to the north have cash flow and brains in the front office, the decision makers in the Padre organization need to sweat the details and make sure that they are taking advantage of every possible opportunity to improve the team. They have to keep mistakes to a minimum.

The Friars have done a nice job of assembling talent and capturing the hearts of local fans. The next step is to eliminate those handful of bizarre personnel decisions that seem to crop up every year. Do I have a plan in mind? Well, right now it consists in hoping that the powers-that-be learn from their mistakes and work to improve the process down the line. How well do I expect this plan to work? I have no idea. Ask me again around this time next year.

The Cubs have tied up the series and taken a two-game lead over the Padres in the wild card race. We figured the first game was up for grabs, with Mark Prior and Adam Eaton going. Sterling Hitchcock vs Carlos Zambrano looked like a mismatch in the Cubs’ favor, and it was. This afternoon it’s Jake Peavy against former Padre Matt Clement, which appears to lean more toward the San Diego side. A win in the finale would be real nice.

Didn’t catch any of last night’s action, so you won’t read any analysis of the game here. Instead I’m going to clarify a little and expand on what I said yesterday about Phil Nevin.

In case you missed it, I talked a little about Nevin’s latest outburst directed at Petco Park. Unfortunately I forgot to provide much, if any, context regarding the incident. Basically, he and Kevin Towers got into after Sunday’s game against the Pirates, during which Nevin swore and glared at Towers’ suite after just missing a home run.

This isn’t to dwell on a point, it’s to rectify an omission in yesterday’s post. It’s also a springboard to a form of resolution that has since occurred. Here is the progression of events, as documented by the U-T:

• GM Towers, Nevin exchange heated words about Petco Park after another dog day. This is the incident that first got our attention.
• A burning will to win gets Nevin all fired up. This is a fascinating attempt to invoke the "intensity card" as a defense for Nevin’s behavior. Brilliant stuff from the man himself:
  

  …But the fire is burning inside me. Sometimes, fire can get out of control. I’m trying to control how that fire is used. I know one thing that people can’t say about me. No one can say I don’t play hard.

  At the end of his tired and overextended metaphor, Nevin does make a valid point. Nobody can say he doesn’t play hard. This has been true since the day he put on a Padre uniform. It’s part of what makes him so valuable to this ballclub. But I have to believe he could be even more valuable if he removed a little of the non-baseball drama. Which brings us to the latest chapter in our saga.

• Nevin realizes he overreacted. Promising. It’s not recognition and avoidance, but contrition is at least a step in the right direction. Nevin is old enough and has been around long enough to know better than to go where he’s gone, and it’d be nice to see him take the next step and improve this aspect of his game, but he’s saying the right things.

I don’t know that there’s a point to all this. But it sounds like Nevin and Towers have patched things up and returned their attention to the task at hand. A good start. Now it’s time to get some more wins.

Oh, and if you’re trying to figure out the significance of "cowbell" in today’s title, stop. There is none.

So the Pads managed to hang on in the opener at Wrigley, 8-6. By the time I got home from work, Mark Prior was already out of the game and Adam Eaton wasn’t far behind. I don’t know what Prior’s problem was, but I do know that when you knock him out of the game in the fourth inning, you have to win. The Padres did, although they certainly made it interesting.

Key play of the game? Ramon Hernandez’ two-out, three-run homer to right in the fourth off Glendon Rusch. The Pads had loaded the bases with nobody out. After they’d scored one run, Terrence Long stepped to the plate and hit a weak bouncer back to the box, which Rusch turned into a 1-2-3 double play. Hernandez comes up, and I’m figuring this is where the Pads squander a tremendous opportunity that will come back to haunt them in the end.

But Hernandez got a good pitch to hit and he didn’t try to do too much with it. Nice, easy swing with just a little loft. That ball left the yard in a hurry.

The bullpen, as usual, did a terrific job of holding the lead. In Blaine Neal, Scott Linebrink, and Aki Otsuka, the Friars have three guys who can bridge the gap between starter and closer. What a luxury.

And speaking of closers, Trevor Hoffman had nothing last night. He darned near coughed up the lead when Aramis Ramirez took him to the warning track in dead center. Cub hitters were not biting on the change-up, which meant Hoffman constantly worked from behind in the count. We know how well that worked at Yankee Stadium, and when the ball left Ramirez’ bat, I really thought we were in for a repeat of that nightmare.

It wasn’t pretty, but the Pads won. In the end, that is what matters. With the win, the Friars now find themselves one game back of the Cubs and one up on the Giants in the wild card race. NL West? Forget it. Everybody had their chances, but the Dodgers are the only ones who have stepped up and actually done something. At this point, even if they break even the rest of the way, the Padres will have to win at a .640 clip to take the division. The opportunity was there for a long, long time; now, not so much.

Phil Nevin

The other big "news" is Phil Nevin whining about Petco Park. Again. Honestly, doesn’t he get tired of it at some point? Apparently not.

I’ll be brief because, although I think the latest incident warrants discussion, I don’t think it’s where the focus should be at this point in the season. And I guess that’s my problem with Nevin running off at the mouth again. Why is he thinking about crap like that at a time like this? I mean, I could understand it maybe if the Padres were playing like they did last year and hopelessly out of contention. But this club still has a shot at the playoffs and to a man they need to be focused on the task at hand. Moaning about something that isn’t going to change hardly seems constructive. Then again, I guess that’s what I’m doing right now, isn’t it? Nevin is what he is, Petco Park is what it is. We all really need to just get over it. And Nevin and the Padres need to concentrate on winning.

I won’t lie; it’s disappointing to have a veteran leader who seems to lack poise and wisdom, a couple of traits that could really help down the stretch. We’ve gotten spoiled in San Diego with guys like Tony Gwynn and Hoffman. Not everyone is like that. It’s too bad, but the bottom line is that when he’s healthy, Nevin is a potent force in the lineup. The Padres need him, but they need to find a way to get him to channel his energy into things he can impact, like the outcome of an individual game.

Okay, I’ve already spent too much time on this. They’re all adults. Hopefully they’ve worked everything out in a way that will keep the focus where it belongs, on winning games.

Junk Drawer

Here’s some stuff that’s been accumulating over the past few weeks. I found it interesting; maybe you will too…

• San Diego Padres News (Topix.net). These guys tout themselves as "the Internet’s largest news site." I don’t know about that, but I do know this is a pretty sweet source.
• At son’s game, a case of mistaken identity (ESPN). Hate to defend Roger Clemens, but this was pretty bad.
• Transbuddha and the Blog of Doom Weird, wacky, wonderful.

And on that note, I take my leave.