Don’t shoot the messenger, but the recent track record of high school shortstops taken in the first round isn’t real encouraging. Check this out (stats are for 2004 unless otherwise noted):

Name             Tm Yr No Status
Burrus,Josh     Atl 01 29 .310/.366/.474
                          in A-ball,
                          moved to OF
Cameron,Troy    Atl 97 29 .232/.288/.379
                          in Indy ball,
                          moved to 3B
Espinosa,David  Cin 00 23 .313/.416/.526
                          in Double-A,
                          moved to OF
Halloran,Matt    SD 96 15 out of baseball
Lawrence,Joe    Tor 96 16 reached bigs in 2002,
                          hit .180/.262/.247
Lopez,Felipe    Tor 98  8 .232/.299/.369
                          over parts
                          of three seasons
Montanez,Luis   ChN 00  3 .215/.292/.354
                          in A-ball,
                          moved to 2B
Moore,Scott     Det 02  8 .218/.344/.379
                          in A-ball,
                          moved to 3B;
                          Tigers #7 prospect
Myers,Corey     Ari 99  4 .357/.471/.429
                          in Triple-A,
                          moved to 1B
Santos,Sergio   Ari 02 27 .288/.342/.451
                          in Double-A;
                          Snakes #2 prospect
Smith,Corey     Cle 00 26 .219/.319/.393
                          in Double-A,
                          moved to 3B;
                          Tribe's #13 prospect
Wood,Brandon    Ana 03 23 .263/.348/.438
                          in A-ball;
                          Halos #7 prospect

Kind of a mess, but the gist of it is this:

• Of the 12 high school shorstops drafted in the first round over the period 1996-2003, only two have reached the big leagues (Lawrence, Lopez); neither has had any success at the highest level.
• Only two remain at shortstop (Santos, Wood), and there is talk that Santos will outgrow the position.
• Only four rank among their organization’s top 30 prospects according to Baseball America (Moore, Det #7; Santos, Ari #2; Smith, Cle #13; Wood, Ana #7).
• The only one who really projects as an impact player at this point is Santos, although Wood and possibly Moore could move into that category.

The past obviously is not a certain indicator of the future, and there have been some brilliant counterexamples to the dim picture painted above (some guy named Rodriguez comes to mind). But two things are pretty clear:

1. Pedigree notwithstanding, it’s a lot easier and more common for a player not to develop into a star than to do so.
2. Moving a kid off shortstop at some point is almost a given.

But hey, it’s early. Way too early to jump to any meaningful conclusions. I just throw this stuff out there as food for thought. Every case is different, and the fact that recent history indicates one thing doesn’t necessarily make it true in every specific example. So for now, let’s just see what Bush can do. Recognize that the chances of success are small, don’t build up lofty expectations for the kid before he even sets foot on the field, and just maybe something good will happen.

Elswhere, the Pads spent their 23rd round pick on SDSU first baseman Rielly Embrey. The upside there is that Embrey, who hit the first ever home run at Petco Park, won’t need any convincing that it’s possible to hit the ball out of his home yard.

Oh, and the Padres lost at Fenway yesterday, 1-0. The good news is the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers, thus keeping San Diego tied for first. A solid outing from David Wells on his return from the DL is also encouraging. Justin Germano was optioned to Portland, which means that Dennis Tankersley remains in the rotation. Tank works Thursday against the team that drafted him. He’ll draw Curt Schilling in the series finale.

Tonight it’s Brian Lawrence vs Bronson Arroyo. Game starts at 4 PM and is on ESPN. You expect to lose against Pedro Martinez, but tonight’s is a winnable game. Let’s do it…