So the Padres finished April with a 15-9 record. Granted, they played struggling clubs such as the Giants, the Expos, and the Mets. But unlike in some recent seasons, they dominated these struggling teams and in the end found themselves tied for the division lead.

As Bialystock and Bloom would say, "Where did we go right?"

Before the season began, I mentioned three keys to 2004: health of David Wells and the middle of the order, continued improvement by Adam Eaton and Jake Peavy, and production from the 6-7-8 hitters. It’s early, but so far the guys who’ve needed to stay healthy have done so (although Ryan Klesko had to be removed from a game due to back spasms in the month’s final game), Eaton and Peavy have shown signs of stepping up to the next level, and the bottom of the order has contributed (well, at least Khalil Greene has).

"Rookies" Greene and Aki Otsuka have been outstanding in key roles. Again, it’s only a month, but Greene’s bat has come along a lot further than I’d have expected. He’s working deep into counts and driving the ball to all fields. His approach is much more sophisticated than what I saw last September. For that matter, his approach to the entire game is remarkable for a kid with such little experience at this level. He may hit some bumps in the road, but I get the feeling he’s not the kind of guy who is going to compound his slumps by getting down on himself. That’s speculation on my part, of course, but when I hear Greene talk and when I watch the way he carries himself on the field, I don’t think "rookie" (which is why I put the word in quotes at the beginning of this paragraph). And if Wells and the other Padres are any indication, I’m not alone in my thinking. Greene has been nothing but positive. We haven’t even talked about his defense (but don’t worry, we will).

As for Otsuka, he gave up a run in his first North American appearance and was saddled with the loss. Since then: absolutely nothing, say it again. After three saves in three nights from Trevor Hoffman, Otsuka got the call in the ninth in April’s final game. He came in to close out a 7-6 lead and shut the Mets down in order to preserve the win. Said Otsuka, "It’s the same feeling, whether I pitch in the eighth inning or when I close." This is a rookie? Technically, yes. But this is a guy who set a Japanese Pacific League record for saves back in 1998. Hoffman not available to nail down the victory? Not a problem, let Otsuka do it.

Defense

Another key to the Padres’ success in April was the team’s defense, particularly on the infield. We saw some terrific glovework and now we can point at the available statistics to back up what we witnessed. Some examples:

• Mark Loretta is third in the NL in range factor among second basemen (5.57), behind only Matt Kata and D’Angelo Jimenez. Loretta leads NL second basemen in double plays turned with 24. Not only that, but look at the improvement he has shown this year versus last year in terms of a couple key rate statistics:

         Inn. DP DP/Inn.   RF
  2003  1247  84   .067  4.95
  2004   211  24   .114  5.59
  

  Isn’t that interesting? Hard to know for sure, but two factors that are different in the equation this season are Loretta’s home park and his double play partner.

• Over at third base, Sean Burroughs ranks sixth among NL third baseman in range factor at (2.98). Like Loretta, he has shown an improvement over last year’s 2.70 mark.
• At shortstop, Greene has been nothing less than spectacular. Not in terms of flash, but in terms of results. Among NL shortstops, only Rafael Furcal sports a better range factor than Greene’s 5.06. Greene also leads the league in double plays turned by a shortstop, with 21. Check this out:

         Inn. DP DP/Inn.   RF
  2003*  905  57   .063  4.04 (last in NL)
  2004   192  21   .109  5.06
  
  *Ramon Vazquez
  

  I’m not trying to knock Vazquez, whom I think adds value to a club. But for whatever reason, his numbers when he was playing regularly were nowhere near as good as Greene’s are now. And neither were his double play partner’s. I’m not stating causality, just observing facts. And the facts are that to this point, the middle infield defense has been vastly improved over last year.

Bullpen

Another area that has shown marked improvement over the beginning of last season is the relief corps. After a somewhat shaky start, the bullpen has been solid throughout most of April. Take away a couple of guys who probably don’t belong in the big leagues and a few bad early outings from Antonio Osuna, and you’re looking at a solid bunch. And we haven’t even seen Rod Beck yet. Beck, who was being counted on to set up Hoffman this year, now finds himself looking up at the likes of Otsuka and Scott Linebrink. Think of how strong a bullpen is that it can bring in someone like Beck to work the sixth or seventh inning. I’m assuming, of course, that he will return to the Padres at some point.

Let’s move in for a closer look:

             IP  H ER HR BB SO   ERA  K/9 #P/IP OPS
Otsuka     13.0  6  1  0  3 12  0.69 8.31 13.08 339
Linebrink  14.0 10  3  0  2  9  1.93 5.79 13.14 506
Hoffman     9.0 10  2  0  1  7  2.00 7.00 13.44 717
Witasick    9.0  7  2  0  4  6  2.00 6.00 13.78 547
Osuna      13.1 16  7  2  4 13  4.73 8.78 17.93 835

subtotal   58.1 49 15  2 14 47  2.31 7.25

other*     14.0 15 16  4 15  6 10.29 3.86

total      72.1 65 31  6 29 53  3.86 6.59

*Szuminski, Oropesa, Valdez as reliever

Replace Szuminski and Oropesa with Beck and Jeff Cirillo (not that he’ll pitch, but you get the point), and that’s one heckuva bullpen.

Rotation

Overall, the starters have been solid. Peavy and Eaton have been terrific (although the latter’s numbers don’t show it as much), Valdez has pitched well above and beyond what anyone had a right to expect, and David Wells has gotten on track after a rough start.

The big concerns at this point are Brian Lawrence (recall his struggles when not working with Gary Bennett last year), the extremely low K/9 rates of Valdez and Wells, and Peavy’s inefficiency.

To the numbers:

            IP   H ER HR BB SO  ERA  K/9 #P/IP OPS
Valdez    19.2  15  4  2  3  4 1.83 1.83 14.59 662
Peavy     29.0  28  6  0 11 24 1.86 7.45 16.55 635
Eaton     33.2  34 14  4  5 22 3.74 5.88 14.82 674
Wells     30.0  28 14  3  5  7 4.20 2.10 14.27 752
Lawrence  30.1  46 19  4 14 19 5.64 5.64 16.42 977

Total    142.2 151 57 13 38 76 3.60 4.79

The anemic strikeout totals of Valdez and Wells are immediately obvious. And actually, the strikeout numbers of the starting staff as a whole are a little disconcerting. Peavy’s inefficiency, which is causing him the ability to work deeper into games, is hinted at here. Check out some trends:

      OPS #P/IP #P/PA
2002  762 16.66  3.78
2003  738 16.57  3.90
2004  635 16.55  4.10

What do we see? What I see is a pitcher who is becoming stingier (note the steadily declining opponent OPS) but who is not making much progress in the area of efficiency. Peavy is a tremendous young talent, there’s no disputing that, but the number of pitches he needs to get through an inning is the one area of his game that is holding him back from joining the ranks of the elite.

At this point I need to step back and remind the reader (as well as myself) that Peavy turns 23 at the end of this month. Relax, he’s getting there. He is already a darned good pitcher. But, and this is the scary part, he can become even better.

Offense

After a horrendous start, Brian Giles has gotten on track. He finished April hitting .238/.375/.464. Burroughs and Loretta have been incredibly consistent, and Greene has contributed more than I’d expected. Even the guys who are scuffling, like Ramon Hernandez, are having quality at-bats. Despite hitting just .217 with only two extra base hits, Hernandez has drawn 10 walks against just 5 strikeouts. This is a good sign. Beyond that, as a team, the Padres have drawn 92 walks in 24 games, against just 110 strikeouts. They are outwalking the opposition, 92-67, a differential of 25 walks. In other words, the Padres are drawing one more walk per game than the other team. Over the course of a season, that’s huge.

Terrence Long has been better than advertised. We were assured he’d be a drag on the offense and a general bad presence, but so far he’s contributed when given the chance. Honestly, the main complaint I have so far is that Brian Buchanan isn’t getting enough at-bats (just 15 in April; the next lowest total of any Padre hitter was 20, by Kerry Robinson).

Final Thoughts

Quick comparison of how the 2004 version stacks up against the great Padre teams of the past in terms of April performance:

             April             season
Year   W  L  Pct  RS  RA   W  L  Pct  RS  RA
1984  15  8 .658 107  94  92 70 .568 686 634
1996  17 10 .630 145 108  91 71 .562 771 682
1998  18  7 .720 121  98  98 64 .605 749 635
2004  15  9 .625 117 100  ??????????????????

Incidentally (and not to rain on anyone’s parade), of the three Padre teams that made the playoffs, only the 1996 edition had a strong May (17-10). The 1998 version went 16-14, while the 1984 squad finished the month at an underwhelming 10-13.

I keep telling anyone who asks that this team reminds me a lot of the 1996 squad. The pitching isn’t as strong as the 1998 version, but these guys battle every time they take the field. The upcoming road trip to the southeast will provide a pretty good test of where this club stands.

In Other News

• Giles’ home run keys Padres’ win The Mets played Saturday night’s game under protest due to Aki Otsuka’s delivery. Manager Art Howe: “We want them to get him to pitch correctly.” Ostuka: “I’ll check with Major League Baseball, and if I have to change I will. It doesn’t really matter.” Can you tell which team is focused on winning games right now?
• Howe Doth Protest (Flushing Local). A Mets blogger’s take on Akigate. Good blog. I’ve added it and Against the Grain, another solid entrant, to Hot Links.
• San Diego Baseball Lore (Humbug Journal). Ted Williams Field in North Park. In all the times I’ve practiced softball there, I’ve never thought of it as historical, but it really is. It’s also a place where homeless people sleep, but that’s another story. Thanks to the Score Bard for providing a little perspective on a place I’ve long taken for granted.
• California Wolf Center Speaking of cool places to visit in and around town. This is a little south of Julian. First time I’d been out that way since the fires.

That’s all for now. Next up: Braves and Marlins…