The bad news is, Phil Nevin is expected to miss two to four weeks following surgery to repair torn cartilage in his right knee. Xavier Nady has been recalled from Portland to take Nevin’s spot on the roster. Ryan Klesko moves back to first base, with Terrence Long getting the bulk of PT in left, and Padre fans wondering if the club has any intentions of ever letting the likes of Nady and Jon Knott show what they can do at this level.
The good news is, Brian Lawrence and the Pads beat Roger Clemens and the Astros to reclaim sole possession of first place in the NL West. How cool is that? It was a terrific game, and the Padre hitters showed great patience against Clemens. And obviously Lawrence was brilliant, surrendering a leadoff homer to Craig Biggio and nothing else. Good baseball.
Anyway, today I thought we’d take a look back at the first half and see how things have gone so far for the Pads. We’ll use my season preview over at BTF as the basis for our discussion.
How Has Petco Park Played?
When I wrote the original piece, I said, "my expectation is that Petco will play as a pitchers’ park, but not to the extreme degree that Qualcomm did." I also suggested that left-handed hitters who pull the ball down the line should fare well, specifically mentioning Klesko as a threat to crack 30 homers.
Through 39 home games, there have been 290 runs scored at Petco for an average of 7.44 per game. Over the course of 81 games last year, 682 games were scored for an average of 8.42. Those numbers are pretty similar to 2002 as well:
Yr Stadium G R R/G
04 Petco 39 290 7.44
03 Qualcomm 81 682 8.42
02 Qualcomm 81 672 8.30
With the obvious caveat that we’re working with three months and change worth of data, I’m looking pretty wrong on this one. In particular, the Padres’ inability to score runs at their own home park has been well documented.
As for the statement about Klesko, if he hits 29 home runs in the final 81 games of the season, the Pads are going to the playoffs. The likelihood of that happening is pretty remote. Much of Klesko’s lack of production can be blamed on injuries, and I still believe that a left-handed hitter who can consistently yank the ball down the right field line will have great success at Petco.
How Have the New Guys Done?
Ramon Hernandez, Aki Otsuka, and David Wells have been terrific. Jay Payton had a great month of May but hasn’t done much before or since. Antonio Osuna was reasonably useful when he was healthy, which hasn’t been very often. Jeff Cirillo, Terrence Long, and Ismael Valdez are doing about as well as can be expected. Brian Sweeney made one memorable start against Randy Johnson, but otherwise hasn’t been a factor.
Of the guys who left, only Dave Hansen, Mark Kotsay, and Gary Matthews Jr. have done much. Actually, Hansen and Matthews would have been very handy on this club while at-bats were being wasted on lesser talents. Those two are legitimate big-league bench players, which is one of the areas in which the Pads are severely lacking. I still don’t really understand why there wasn’t more interest in Matthews.
How Has the Offense Been?
Well, not as good as anticipated. Before the season, Kevin Towers said he thought the Pads could score 800 runs this year. So far, they’ve scored 359 for an average of 4.43 a game. To reach 800, the Pads would need to average 5.44 runs a game the rest of the way. In other words, they’d need to average a full run per game more than they’re currently producing. I think the most optimistic among us would concede that this isn’t a likely occurrence.
Overall, the Padres are tied for 11th in the NL in runs scored, last in home runs, and second to last in slugging. On the positive side, they’re seventh in on-base percentage. The offense has been good enough, but it’s not what’s kept the Padres in the race so far.
As for individual performances, with the exception of Klesko and Payton (and possibly Giles), everyone is doing about as well as expected. Klesko has been swinging the bat much better since coming off the DL, but he still isn’t driving the ball. Never mind 29 homers, if he can hit even half that the rest of the way, the Pads will be in good shape. Payton needs to be a little less bipolar at the plate. May was a blast, but the rest of the season has been pretty brutal. Particularly with Nevin’s immediate future in doubt, the Padres need more production out of Payton. The one mildly pleasant surprise has been Greene, whose numbers are about what we expected but with an OBP about 30-40 points higher than anticipated. Sure, he’s hitting in the eight hole, but give the kid credit: Only Giles and Nevin have drawn more walks so far. Plus, Greene gets extra credit for making Rey Ordonez go away.
The bench has been awful. Cirillo started the year hurt. Ramon Vazquez never made the adjustment to part-time player. Brian Buchanan, underutilized in favor of inferior options, has seen his game deteriorate. Newcomer Darren Bragg could provide a shot in the arm, but realistically, if the Padres are to make a move in the second half, this is one of the areas where they need to upgrade. A legitimate backup middle infielder and a veteran bat off the bench would be huge. So would getting Buchanan back on track. Keeping Kerry Robinson off the big-league roster also helps.
How Has the Pitching Been?
Seriously? Better than my wildest dreams. I did not think David Wells had this much left in the tank. He’s been brilliant and I do believe he’s helping some of the kids on the staff. Lawrence and Adam Eaton both had some rough stretches early on, and Jake Peavy was on the shelf for several weeks, but the Big Three are locking in at just the right time. Peavy’s early season injury may end up being a blessing in disguise, as it should limit his overall workload and keep him fresh come crunch time. Sterling Hitchcock, who won the fifth starter job in March, has yet to pitch an inning due to injuries. Valdez, his replacement, has been stellar at home but wretched on the road. More consistency out of that spot would be nice, and I often wonder whether Dennis Tankersley would be a better option, but what do I know?
The bullpen, which we figured would be a strength, has been just that. Trevor Hoffman is almost back to pre-injury form (he isn’t striking out quite as many guys as he used to, but his command is still impeccable), Otsuka has been brilliant for most of the year, and Scott Linebrink could close for many teams. Jay Witasick has been solid when given low-leverage innings. The downsides have been Osuna’s injuries, Rod Beck’s long leave of absence, and a bunch of innings wasted on the likes of Eddie Oropesa and Jason Szuminski.
Prospects? Management?
Most of the Padres’ best prospects are now playing an important role on the current team (Burroughs, Greene, Peavy, etc.) or played a hand in acquiring top-flight talent (i.e., Jason Bay and Ollie Perez for Giles). Of the guys still down on the farm, Josh Barfield got off to a slow start in his first exposure to Double-A pitching but he’s still got a good deal of punch for a middle infielder and he’s still very young. Jon Knott and Xavier Nady have pounded the ball at Portland and gotten half-hearted looks at the big-league level. After an early-season injury, Tagg Bozied has also hit well at Triple-A and is waiting for his turn. Sweeney and Tankersley have contributed, as has the surprising Humberto Quintero. And of course, there’s the whole Matt Bush thing, but that’s another story.
As for management, I think Kevin Towers has done a great job of outhustling a lot of his peers to assemble a serious contender. The guys he traded to get Giles were all gotten on the cheap (Bay from the Mets for Steve Reed, Perez signed out of Mexico, Cory Stewart signed out of Indy league). The Kotsay for Hernandez/Long deal has worked out well for both clubs but has helped the Padres fill one of their perennial gaps. Hernandez’ current replacement, Quintero, was picked up from the ChiSox for the tiresome D’Angelo Jimenez, who didn’t last nearly as long in Chicago as Quintero will in San Diego. Linebrink and Otsuka for almost nothing is brilliant. How much are the Yankees paying Steve Karsay to go on rehab assignments?
On the field, it’s not quite as rosy. Bruce Bochy has a more veteran group this year. He can sit back more and let them go about their business. On the negative side, he continues to rely too much on guys who aren’t that good (Oropesa, Robinson, Valdez) and not enough on guys who are (Buchanan). Bochy’s obsession with continually removing Klesko in the middle innings for Robinson was downright disturbing, especially in light of Robinson’s shortcomings in left field. It’s hard to argue with results, and guys generally seem happy with the way Bochy runs things, but I do question some of his in-game decisions.
What Does the Future Hold?
I stated that "I still don’t think 90 wins is out of reach" and I predicted that the Pads would finish the season at 84-78. Well, at the midway point the Padres are at 44-37. Double that and you get 88 wins. Will it happen? Hey, if I knew the answer to that, I wouldn’t spend my days blogging (okay, I would, but that’s not the point). Basically, the Pads are roughly where I’d expected them to be right now. They’re doing it with more pitching and less hitting, but they are poised to make a run at the NL West title. In no particular order, here are the keys to the second half for San Diego:
- More production out of Klesko and Payton
- Healthy Nevin
- Consistent, positive results from Beck and Otsuka
- More production from the bench
- Upgrade at #5 starter
This club is starting to gel. They’re learning to win together, but they still sometimes have trouble putting teams away. Close, very close. But not quite there yet. I still think 84 wins is very reachable. And the division is anybody’s for the taking at this point. Should make for some great baseball the rest of the way.
Those are my thoughts. What are yours?
Ismael Valdez vs Pete Munro tonight. Same time, same channel. Time to get some separation from the pack…
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