Keep Me Away from the Ball Game

I gotta stop going to ball games. Cocteau Twins playing on iTunes, to help me chill.

I wasn’t in the best frame of mind to start. Nothing wrong, really, just the usual everday stresses. Same as you. But we had the whole Chan Ho Park thing going for us, so that was good. I won’t say it kept me going because, seriously, it’s just baseball. But Park’s performance had been a pleasant surprise, and a part of it stayed with me on Wednesday. You know, in a “Sure, I might be struggling with this code, but at least Park pitched a good game last night” kind of way.

There was nothing extraordinary about Wednesday. I followed the usual routine. Leave work at 5, get home at 5:30, feed the dogs and let ‘em run around the yard for a few minutes. Leave a little before 6, shoot down the hill through Mission Valley. Usually bail at University and cruise down Sixth Avenue. The speed limit is 30 there. It’s hard to go that slow because the road is wide and straight. But there’s a church at the bottom of the hill, and cops like to set up camp in the parking lot and get a ticket assembly line going.

Or so I’ve heard. From a cop. Who handed me a ticket.

(It’s okay; this was several years ago and had nothing to do with my frame of mind tonight.)

I pick up my wife at the office. Downtown parking is a sweet perq. We chat with the security guard, who has been there for years. He’s always asking us about the Padres and wishing them well. Genuinely nice guy.

We walk down to Horton Plaza, to one of a local French chain. They make killer chicken and mushroom crepes. We’ll each have one.

“I’m sorry,” says the waiter. “We’re out of those. Can I get you something else?”

There is no backup plan. Perhaps he can whip up a Waldorf salad. But then, he may be out of Waldorfs.

My wife gets a spinach crepe. The waiter repeats her order and says “crepe” in a way that makes it sound slightly less appetizing. I panic and go for the roast beef panini. Not a dynamic choice, but I have to order something. We are, after all, at a restaurant.

I’ll have a beer with dinner. India Pale Ale. “Sorry,” he says. “We’re out of that.”

Okay, make it the Hefeweizen. No, lemon will not be necessary. If the beer is good, it will do fine on its own.

If you’re keeping track, we’re both on our second string entree and I’m on my second string drink. It is the Tom Lampkin of meals.

But as I order the beer, something magical happens.

“May I see your ID?”

I shoot the waiter a look. I’m sure he is joking. He is not, or if he is, he’s hiding it well. I laugh and show my drivers license. I check to see if he’s laughing. He is not. I scan the room for old college friends to see if someone has put him up to this; I see none (not that I can remember what most of them look like anymore). No joke. Dude thinks I might be under age. He thanks me and goes off to get the Hefeweizen.

It could be stale bread and warm water, he’d still get a good tip.

We’ll be late to the game. It’s a calculated risk. We’ve decided we won’t even try to go to our seats. We’ll just hang out at the Park at the Park for a while, then maybe wander around the concourse.

We never leave the Park at the Park. Tennis balls are flying everywhere. Some kids have pretty good control of their bodies and make strong, accurate throws. Others have the command of Brian Lawrence on a bad night.

Like tonight.

Lawrence is all over the place. He’s visibly frustrated on the mound. It’s difficult to watch, because he’s usually such a cool cat out there. But tonight he’s snapping at the ball when Miguel Olivo throws it back to him after a pitch. The ball is moving, as it always does when Lawrence throws it, it’s just not doing what he wants it to, in the way he wants it. When you work in the low- to mid-80s, that doesn’t get the job done at the big league level and he knows it.

Mets starter Kris Benson is also painful to watch. He makes me long for the quick work of Steve Trachsel. What is the old saying: Molasses is slower than Kris Benson? Not a fair comparison. At least molasses has a good excuse.

The Mets are up 2-0 when we get to Petco. We’re there maybe 20 minutes and suddenly it’s 5-0. Lawrence has been allowed to bat in the third despite the fact that this clearly is not his night. He gets two quick outs to start the fourth before surrendering a double to Carlos Beltran.

“Do you want to walk around a bit?” I ask my wife.

“No, but I’m ready to walk back to the car whenever you are.” She has a feeling about this one, too.

“Let’s give it till the fifth inning,” I say, and she shrugs.

Cliff Floyd steps to the plate. Bruce Bochy orders the intentional walk to bring up David Wright. You may recognize him as the 22-year-old third baseman who is terrorizing the league and who already has two hits tonight.

I shake my head and tell my wife we may not make it to the fifth. “Wright is going yard,” I say. My wife steps away. She’s heard me call enough shots over the years to know that I have no clue. But I suspect she also knows I’ll be pretty upset if it happens.

First pitch from Lawrence misses for ball one. Wright crushes the next pitch to left field. From our vantage point, we can only see what is happening on the giant screen behind the center field batters eye. What is happening is Ryan Klesko is standing very still, turning to watch the ball sail into the stands.

The ball is gone, and so are we. Wright has made the game 8-0. We can’t even bring ourselves to stick around for Xavier Nady‘s token at-bat in a meaningless situation. We have better things to do just now. Play with the dogs. Eat ice cream bars. Listen to the Cocteau Twins. And hope tomorrow is a better day.

IGD: Padres vs Mets (10 Aug 2005)

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (6-11, 4.43 ERA) vs Kris Benson (7-4, 3.72 ERA)

So, of course, Chan Ho Park goes out and outpitches Pedro Martinez. As Kevin asked in last night’s IGD, “Who’s your Padre?”

It’s only one start, but Park surprised the heck out of me. Surprised the Mets, too. Channel 4 had his fastball at 89-94, with good movement. Park would run it inside to lefties and let it tail back to catch the corner of the plate. It’s only one game, but he had much better stuff and command than I’d expected. Finished with eight strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. Works for me.

Martinez couldn’t get anything going all night. The pitch Khalil Greene hit out was something off-speed that just hung and didn’t move at all. Actually, that is a good description of a lot of Pedro’s pitches Tuesday night. Even Park got a good rip in against him. It was like the wrong pitcher was in the wrong body. Peter Friberg has a good recap over at San Diego Spotlight.

Wednesday night features a rematch of Lawrence and Benson, who hooked up on July 19 at Shea Stadium in a game that ended on, of all things, a Chris Woodward home run. We’ve noted that, despite the wide disparity in salaries, these two pitchers have put up similar numbers throughout their respective careers.

We’ll also note there should be a lot of lefties in the lineup for both teams. Right-handed batters have hit .233/.272/.323 against Benson this year, .241/.282/.368 against Lawrence. Lefties have hit .257/.322/.444 and .301/.359/.480, respectively, against the two pitchers. Also, Benson hasn’t been real effective on the road this year: opponents are hitting .275/.333/.515.

Finally, the rest of the NL West lost again, so the Pads are back in front by four games. It’s looking like the Padres want to give away the division a little less than their competitors.

That’s all I’ve got. I’ll be out at the game tonight. Another win would be nice, no?

IGD: Padres vs Mets (9 Aug 2005)

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Chan Ho Park (8-5, 5.84 ERA) vs Pedro Martinez (12-3, 2.81 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

As those of you who caught the inaugural edition of Ducksnorts Radio will know, the Mets come to town with a better record than the Padres. Actually, many others of you will know that as well, but humor me.

(And if you haven’t listened to the podcast yet, I encourage you to do so. It’s very much a work in progress, but I’ve gotten some good feedback, and I’ll be doing more of these in the future. Topic and music suggestions are always welcome.)

I also compared the Park/Martinez matchup to the Darrell May/Johan Santana showdown of a couple months ago. But this is even more of a mismatch than that was. May’s ERA (5.20) entering the June 19 contest at Minnesota was only 56% higher than Santana’s (3.32).

Park’s checks in around 108% higher than Pedro’s. I don’t know how valid it is to compare two pitchers ERAs in this manner, but I do know that it’s valid enough to tell me I don’t like the Padres’ chances tonight.

Head-to-Head Matchups
  AB BA OBP SLG
Park vs current Mets 83 .337 .456 .651
Martinez vs current Padres 119 .269 .315 .521

You don’t want me to break down the individual hitters against Park. Suffice to say, anyone who has faced him much has had terrific success. But you probably figured that out from the .314 ISO.

How good is a .314 ISO? Manny Ramirez has a .313 ISO this year, good for fourth out of the 158 qualifiers in the big leagues. Would it be fair to say Park turns hitters into Ramirez? Add 55 points to Manny’s BA, 80 points to his OBP, and 70 points to his SLG, and it would.

On the other side, Ryan Klesko (.345/.406/.828 in 29 AB) has four of the Pads’ seven homers against Pedro. Here’s hoping Ryno’s back is good enough to get him in the lineup. Eric Young (.273/.429/.818 in 11 AB) also has done well against Martinez.

So the good news is that Martinez hasn’t dominated this lineup. The bad news, of course, is that he doesn’t need to dominate. He just needs to show up at the ballpark.

Bottom line? You never concede a game before it starts, but I’m looking for baby steps here. If Park pitches better than he did in his Padres debut, I’ll be happy. Well, maybe “happy” is too strong a word, but you get the idea.

Linkengruven

Okay, get out to the game tonight. Or hang out here and chat. Listen to the podcast. Aw, heck; do whatever you want to do. Just be sure to have fun doing it. Go Pads!

Ducksnorts Radio Episode 1

One of the founding principles of Ducksnorts is the willingness to experiment. The phrase I repeat to myself constantly is, “Try stuff, it might work.” So in that spirit, I present to you the first episode of Ducksnorts Radio:

  • Ducksnorts Radio Episode 1: Aug. 7, 2005 (17:47, 6.1MB)
    Today’s episode includes a look at the Padres’ upcoming homestand against the Mets and Phillies, how the club stacks up against the rest of a weak NL West in terms of schedule over the next few weeks, and what kind of help might be available down on the farm. Thanks for joining us, and enjoy!

Apparently you can download this thing into your iPod and listen to it on the go. That’s kinda cool. I made my wife listen to the podcast, and she compares it to Wayne’s World (without the humor or sweet mullet).

A few comments after the fact:

  • Although the show is just under 18 minutes long, it took about 10 hours to produce, mainly because I had no idea what I was doing. Also, between trying to get all the equipment I needed, actually making it work, and trying to say something quasi-intelligent, I found words coming out of my mouth that I’d forgotten I knew. I won’t repeat those here.
  • Much, much respect to guys who broadcast for a living. For instance, I’ll no longer give grief to anyone on air for saying “uh,” “um,” or “y’know.” It’s a lot harder than it looks.
  • At one point in the broadcast, I refer to Pads’ minor leaguer Adam Bourassa as a former teammate of Tim Stauffer in the Cape Cod League. That is incorrect. They played in the CCL together but on different teams. And the name of the book is The Last Best League.
  • The music is all me, but none of it is original material. That may change in the future, assuming I do another one of these.

So give it a listen, let me know what you think. Is this anything? Does it have potential? Or do you need to pull me aside and slap me upside the head?

Finally, if you’re not into the whole podcasting thing and you’d rather just read something, I’ve busted out a look at Game 5 of the 2001 World Series that originally ran in November 2001. Enjoy!

From the Vault: World Series 2001, Game 5

[This post originally ran on November 2, 2001.]

Fascinating. I noticed the Diamondbacks were up 2-0 after seven last night, so I broke my “no Yankees on television” rule to see how Bob Brenly would manage to blow this one. Actually, that’s a bit harsh. What I really wanted to see was how he would try to end the game without his closer, Byung-Hyun Kim, who presumably would be unable to work after throwing 62 pitches the previous night. But I did tune in fully expecting to see the Yankees win.

What I didn’t expect was for Brenly to bring Kim in again. In fact, when Fox did their little poll, I scoffed, thinking, “Even Brenly’s not stupid enough to bring Kim in after overworking him last night.” When he did call on his nominal closer, I was stunned. What the hell was Brenly thinking? I know he doesn’t like to be second-guessed (try a different line of work, Bob) but if you couldn’t see this blowing up in his face from a mile away, you probably weren’t paying attention.

Kim, to his credit, despite having poor stuff and worse command, battled and damn near bailed out his manager. But with two outs in the ninth, for the second night in a row, he served up a game-tying homer, this time to Scott Brosius.

Then it became a battle between Mariano Rivera and Mike Morgan. And Morgan, to his credit, kept Arizona in the game. But eventually Brenly’s luck ran out and the Yankees won. As they always do. Others will analyze this more and probably better than I can, but for me, one of the most telling stats of the past two nights is pitch counts. Schilling, one of the best pitchers in either league, throws 88 pitches; Kim, nominal closer and one of the few guys in his bullpen Brenly seems to trust throws 77; Batista, third or fourth starter, throws 126.

What in God’s name is Brenly thinking? Hasn’t anyone explained to him how to use a pitching staff? You don’t pull a guy with a reputation for going deep into games after he’s thrown only 88 pitches and replace him with a guy who seldom throws more than 25 pitches only to leave him in for 62. And you sure as hell don’t bring the second guy into the following night’s game to throw 15 more!

I understand that managing a big-league ballclub must be a very difficult task, and I’m sure Brenly has his strengths as a manager but as the past two nights have shown, in-game strategy is decidedly not among them. I feel badly for Kim, who gave up game-winning homers in back-to-back games against the Padres the first weekend in September. I didn’t feel too badly for him then, although my wife did. But this time, I feel terrible. His manager set him up for failure two nights in a row, first by leaving him in way too long, then by bringing him back exhausted. Honestly, the way Brenly has treated Kim, I’m hoping all he blows is the World Series. I don’t want to put some kind of jinx on Kim but if he does come down with a major arm injury next season, we won’t need to look too far to figure out why.

I’ll be honest; I don’t care for the Diamondbacks much as a team. I don’t care for the way the organization is run, and I don’t like their attitude. But I feel badly for the fans. If I were one of them, I’d be furious at Brenly. Heck, I’m furious at him and I don’t even like the team he manages. And yet, like a car wreck, it is horribly compelling to watch a manager almost singlehandedly give the World Series to his opponent.

[You can also read Joe Sheehan's take on the game over at Baseball Prospectus.]

IGD: Padres @ Nationals (7 Aug 2005)

first pitch: 10:05 a.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (9-4, 3.31 ERA) vs Esteban Loaiza (6-7, 3.62 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

Wouldn’t Loaiza be a useful guy to have on the team right about now? I know, I shouldn’t be so catty after the Padres won their second straight series and assured themselves of a winning road trip.

But I am.

Pedro Astacio picked up his first victory for the Friars, who returned to .500 and extended their lead over Arizona to three games. As we know about the NL West, nobody wants it, somebody has to take it. Might as well be the Pads, right?

Peavy toes the slab Sunday morning as the Friars go for the sweep. He’s battling a finger problem (uh-oh), but it doesn’t appear to be too serious. Go get ‘em, Jake!

IGD: Padres @ Nationals (6 Aug 2005)

first pitch: 4:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Pedro Astacio (2-10, 6.06 ERA) vs Ryan Drese (3-4, 4.26 ERA)
previews: ESPN | Padres.com

Great win for the Padres Friday night in their first ever visit to RFK Stadium. Rich Campbell summarizes the game nicely over at San Diego Spotlight.

Remember when the Padres were winning the close ones back in May? It would be unreasonable to expect a repeat of May, or anything close to it, but for some reason I am guardedly optimistic about August. I have to tell you that there is no tanglible basis for this feeling; it’s just a gut thing. In fact, analysis of the available numbers tells me to temper my enthusiasm, but I’ll take my chances.

So, tonight Astacio really is pitching. Can I take back what I said in that last paragraph? Why would I be optimistic about a team that has Astacio and Chan Ho Park in its rotation? That combination didn’t work for the Rangers earlier this season, why should it work for the Padres down the stretch? I dunno. I suspect I may have had too much coffee this morning.

Yes, I’ll blame it on the coffee. Or maybe it’s Cheap Trick on the iTunes. That’s right, everything is Rick Nielsen‘s fault. Because, seriously, who needs five necks on a guitar?

Okay, this post officially has jumped the shark. I’ll leave you with a couple of links:

  • Nine-run inning buries Beavers (OregonLive). Tim Stauffer surrendered seven runs over five innings in his first start back at Portland Thursday night.
  • Carrillo fine in Mobile; Brad Blackwell debut (Scout.com). As Hank mentioned in last night’s comments, Cesar Carrillo got off to a rough start in his second start for the Bay Bears but bounced back and finished strong. Sean Burroughs, meanwhile, is up to his old tricks. It’s only nine games, but more than one extra base hit would be nice. I really wonder if maybe it’s time for a change of scenery. Burroughs’ name reportedly was mentioned in talks with the White Sox involving fellow disappointment Joe Borchard.

Enjoy the game. Go Pads!

IGD: Padres @ Nationals (5 Aug 2005)

first pitch: 4:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Pedro Astacio (2-10, 6.06 ERA) vs Livan Hernandez (13-4, 3.27 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

Did you notice Adam Eaton doing his Astacio impression in the ninth inning of Thursday’s game? Maybe Eaton figures that’s his best shot at getting back into the rotation.

As for today, I’m trying to figure out whether Astacio vs Hernandez is more of a mismatch than Darrell May vs Johan Santana. It’s a tough call. Santana can completely shut down a team, so I guess I’d go with that one. But Hernandez just keeps rolling.

How did the Pads end up with Astacio in their rotation, anyway? And how come it’s okay for Eaton to learn how to work out of the bullpen on the fly but not for Xavier Nady to play third base? And how come I can’t stop thinking about these things?

Three games with the Nats. Should be fun. Check out the other side of the story over at Oleanders and Morning Glories, Harper Gordek’s excellent blog on all things Washington baseball. And be grateful the Pads don’t have to face John Patterson. ;-)

Linkorama

  • No catching help in Padres’ system (NC Times). This one’s a little old but still relevant. John Maffei looks at the Friars long-term catching situation, as well as other items of note from around the minors.
  • Padres were Washington bound for ’74 (NC Times). Maffei comes up with another winner. From the article: “The Topps Company, the nation’s largest baseball card manufacturer, was so convinced the Padres were moving that Series 1 of the company’s 1974 set had Padres players listed as ‘Washington – Nat’l Lea.’”
  • Early returns positive on trade for catcher Olivo (U-T). Well, he’s certainly contributing more than Miguel Ojeda was this year.
  • Moneyball (Flynn Files). Among teams that rank 16-20 in payroll, the Padres are middle of the pack in terms of on-field success. How ’bout those Cleveland Indians.
  • Circle the Wagons: Running the Bases Part II (Hardball Times). Interesting look at the effect of parks on baserunning tendencies. Also, I like any stat that rates Damian Jackson first over the past five years.
  • Conversation with Paul McAnulty (PDX Beavers). Jonathan talks to the sweet-swinging lefty from Oxnard. On his approach at the plate: “Hit the ball hard. See it and hit it.” On playing pro baseball: “I get to play a game for a living. A lot of people lose sight of that. I mean this is just awesome.” Actually, the entire interview is awesome. McAnulty seems like he’s got a good head on his shoulders. And we know he can swing the lumber.
  • Klesko sidelined by back (Padres.com). Lefty slugger expects to be back in the lineup in a few days. Also, Pirates manager Lloyd McClendon becomes the latest to “freak out” over Akinori Otsuka‘s delivery. Get over it already. Seriously, let it go.
  • Turning Human Stress into Productivity, Baseball Style (Management by Baseball). I’m not even going to attempt to summarize this. I’ll just say that MBB is one of my favorite blogs, and I’m never disappointed in what Jeff Angus has to say. Read it.
  • Prospect Retro: Roberto Petagine (Minor League Ball). John Sickels looks at former Padre Petagine, who after a six-year stint in Japan has resurfaced with the Red Sox. Petagine has a cult following, of the sort that, say, Tim Hyers was never able to cultivate. Good for Petagine.
  • NL Worst (The Mirl). Friend of Ducksnorts and all-around solid dude Ed Barnes (you read the interview, didn’t you?) has posted an article detailing exactly how pitiful the NL West has become. Ed notes that poor play throughout the division dampened deadline deals and concludes that it’s up for grabs… assuming anyone wants it.

There you have it. Memo to Washington: Fear the Astacio!

How Am I Driving?

Hey there. Been meaning to do this for a while, finally getting around to it. Just a few questions for you. Leave comments or e-mail me if you’re so inclined.

  1. Are you getting what you want out of Ducksnorts this year?
  2. Better/same/worse compared to previous years?
  3. What’s working, what isn’t?
  4. More interviews? More analysis? More cowbell?
  5. Any ideas for stories? I tend to ramble on about whatever’s on my mind, but I’m always open to suggestions.

Can’t think of anything right now? Shoot me a message later–I’ll be here.

Thanks in advance…

IGD: Padres @ Pirates (4 Aug 2005)

first pitch: 9:35 a.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Brian Lawrence (5-11, 4.50 ERA) vs Mark Redman (5-11, 4.30 ERA)
preview: ESPN | Padres.com

Tables, we’ve got tables…

Padres Aggregate Starting Pitching Before and Since June 1, 2005
Period GS W L ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
4/4 – 5/31 52 18 14 4.33 9.28 0.97 2.62 6.60
6/1 – 8/3 55 14 28 5.07 9.74 1.32 2.82 6.28
Stats courtesy David Pinto’s Day by Day Database.

More hits, walks, and especially homers, fewer strikeouts. No great mystery there. And the anemic offense hasn’t helped matters:

Padres Starts by Runs Allowed
RA GS W L
4 Apr – 31 May 05
0-3 31 16 3
4+ 21 2 11
1 Jun – 3 Aug 05
0-3 27 12 5
4+ 28 2 23
Stats courtesy David Pinto’s Day by Day Database.

One final set of numbers, and then a crazy idea.

Padres Starts by Runs Allowed, Part Deux
  4/4 – 5/31 6/1 – 8/3
Percentage of starts with 0-3 runs allowed 59.6 49.1
Percentage of wins by starters in those starts 51.6 44.4
Percentage of starts with 4+ runs allowed 40.4 50.9
Percentage of losses by starters in those starts 52.4 82.1
Stats courtesy David Pinto’s Day by Day Database.

The starters used to give up three runs or fewer 6 times in 10 starts; now one of those starts has crossed over to the 4+ realm. Also, the starters aren’t winning as many of the “good” starts and are losing a lot more of the “bad” ones. Where the offense might have picked up the starter on an off night earlier in the season, you can pretty much kiss the game goodbye if a guy gives up four runs now.

The crazy idea? Clay Hensley in the rotation. The only obstacles I see are that he isn’t a veteran and it makes too much sense. Whaddya think?