IGD: Padres @ Nationals (6 Aug 2005)
Sat, Aug 6, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 4:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Pedro Astacio (2-10, 6.06 ERA) vs Ryan Drese (3-4, 4.26 ERA)
previews: ESPN | Padres.com
Great win for the Padres Friday night in their first ever visit to RFK Stadium. Rich Campbell summarizes the game nicely over at San Diego Spotlight.
Remember when the Padres were winning the close ones back in May? It would be unreasonable to expect a repeat of May, or anything close to it, but for some reason I am guardedly optimistic about August. I have to tell you that there is no tanglible basis for this feeling; it’s just a gut thing. In fact, analysis of the available numbers tells me to temper my enthusiasm, but I’ll take my chances.
So, tonight Astacio really is pitching. Can I take back what I said in that last paragraph? Why would I be optimistic about a team that has Astacio and Chan Ho Park in its rotation? That combination didn’t work for the Rangers earlier this season, why should it work for the Padres down the stretch? I dunno. I suspect I may have had too much coffee this morning.
Yes, I’ll blame it on the coffee. Or maybe it’s Cheap Trick on the iTunes. That’s right, everything is Rick Nielsen’s fault. Because, seriously, who needs five necks on a guitar?
Okay, this post officially has jumped the shark. I’ll leave you with a couple of links:
- Nine-run inning buries Beavers (OregonLive). Tim Stauffer surrendered seven runs over five innings in his first start back at Portland Thursday night.
- Carrillo fine in Mobile; Brad Blackwell debut (Scout.com). As Hank mentioned in last night’s comments, Cesar Carrillo got off to a rough start in his second start for the Bay Bears but bounced back and finished strong. Sean Burroughs, meanwhile, is up to his old tricks. It’s only nine games, but more than one extra base hit would be nice. I really wonder if maybe it’s time for a change of scenery. Burroughs’ name reportedly was mentioned in talks with the White Sox involving fellow disappointment Joe Borchard.
Enjoy the game. Go Pads!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
August 6, 2005 at 10:22 am
Coverage of Cesar Carillo’s 2nd Double-A start is up at BayBear Beat (http://www.livejournal.com/community/baybears/) Please visit today!
August 6, 2005 at 12:26 pm
I will take a win, but I disagree with this being like our gritting out the 1 run wins in May. Our OPS in this game was .967 vs. .464 for Washington. Based on the relationship between OPS and runs scored over a season, the game should have been 9 - 1 (8.87 to 0.73). This would have been an agonizing loss. Let’s hope that our bats keep going and we get a bit less unlucky.
Also, I was watching MLB TV at work for most of the game, so kind of toggling back to it, but the ump was not doing us any favors. I thought he was squeezing Williams and way too generous with Hernandez on the outside left part of the plate. I have watched a decent number of games this season, and thought that this was the most one-sided calling I had seen. He was not making eggregious calls, but consistently calling one pitch a strike for Hernandez and consistently calling a very similar pitch by Williams a ball. Both were on the border, but giving one to Hernandez and not to Williams.
But we won despite it all. I was kind of afraid to mention it to, but I had this oddly positive feeling about August as well. Then I remembered we don’t have Adam Eaton, a hodge-podge corp at catcher and a manager who hates X Nady. During the trade talk, people explicitly said Nady’s time is now.
So, in the last 7 days, Nady has gotten 17 PA, a bit paltry behind Eric Young (24), Damian Jackson (19). It is truly bizarre what lengths Bochy will go to keep X out of line up.
The logic seems to go: when the team (ex X) is hitting, it seems to justify keeping him on the bench. When the team is not hitting, it is clear you need that veteran presence to pull the team out of the slump, so he is on the bench.
August 6, 2005 at 12:45 pm
All of the umps’ strike zones have been inconsistent this season. That’s because Sandy Alderson left the commish’s office for the Padres. That was one of the things he had gotten in order.
August 6, 2005 at 12:46 pm
And you can’t help but do it:
Nevin in Texas, 5 for 19, 3 2b, 1 HR, OPS = .912
I don’t think Nevin had 20 ABs like that all season for the Padres.
August 6, 2005 at 1:58 pm
Jay, Mark Sweeney’s OPS since Nevin left blows Nevin away. Even if you combine Sweeney and Nady, I think you still get a better OPS.
By the way, Young has a .97 OPS the last 7 days, Nady is at .607, Jackson at .594. X is not exactly distinguishing himself when he gets his opportunities lately. If he was, he would probably be playing more, because that appears to be what Bochy is trying to do, play the most productive guys at any particular moment.
August 6, 2005 at 1:59 pm
make that .917 OPS for Young
August 6, 2005 at 2:11 pm
I agree with playing productive players. It seems odd to give Jackson a start at 3B and sit Nady. Young is a good player, so it does not irk the way playing Nevin (high .600s OPS) vs. Nady did. I did an analysis earlier in the season that suggested that Nady hit better when he was playing more regularly. He has a solid OPS and his splits vs. LHP/RHP aren’t so wide as to say he should be platooning. I would love to see Bochy pencil him in 7 games in a row (1B, 3B, CF, LF) wherever works, and see what happens.
August 6, 2005 at 2:43 pm
It’s a question of cause and effect. Is X not getting opportunities because he’s not being productive or vice versa? Personally I think he’s been badly underutilized this year. If the Padres aren’t willing to commit to the guy, I’d like to see them give him a shot with someone who is, much as they did with Jason Bay.
Glad to see Nevin doing well in Texas. I hope he is able to keep it going.
August 6, 2005 at 3:10 pm
Another interesting thing related to your observation about Astacio / Park being former-Rangers … today’s Nats starter (Drese) also started for the Rangers this season ???
August 6, 2005 at 4:16 pm
OK, it was nice to shake up the lineup, but Loretta is batting .298. Can we bat him second again? When he is on his game, he and Jeter and the best No. 2 hitters in the game.
August 6, 2005 at 4:23 pm
One more thing: Giles is hitting fourth again of late. A player with that on-base percentage should not hit lower than third.
August 6, 2005 at 5:15 pm
Pedro is going good so far. Lets hope Bochy doesnt go too long with him. Last couple of starts he has faded badly went he starts to tire.
August 6, 2005 at 5:36 pm
Astacio has pitched pretty well tonight and has been fairly lucky with a .286 BABIP (his dERA would have him at 3.35 runs allowed through 5 IP).
August 6, 2005 at 5:36 pm
so far so good. whats up with Randa? he slumping or what?
August 6, 2005 at 5:38 pm
Pedro’s defense independent line through five:
4.53 IP, 4.71 H, 3.03 ER, 3.97 K, 3.13 BB, 0.99 HR (6.03 ERA)
August 6, 2005 at 5:40 pm
Drese’s defense independent line through five:
5.14 IP, 5.02 H, 1.60 ER, 2.98 K, 1.15 BB, 0.00 HR (2.81 ERA)
August 6, 2005 at 5:42 pm
Randa with Cincy: .289/.356/.491/.847
with the Padres: .211/.250/.289/.539
its only ten games but today he is 0-3 too
August 6, 2005 at 5:46 pm
I’d attribute Randa’s decline to a combination of small sample size and regression toward the mean.
August 6, 2005 at 5:49 pm
well, I would sure feel better to see him hitting more around .300 or so with some rbi’s
August 6, 2005 at 5:56 pm
RBI’s are largely a function of the rest of the lineup, so I’d like to see them to because it speaks to team success. As for batting .300, I’d be a little surprised to see him do that.
August 6, 2005 at 5:56 pm
I hope that Pedro keeps it up but I find myself holding my breath knowing that we are tiptoeing around a time bomb. It could explode at any second. Know what I mean?
August 6, 2005 at 5:57 pm
well so much for that bit of wisdom, young is hitting for him…he is gone and the bully is responsible for the rest of the game.
Great Job Pedro!
August 6, 2005 at 5:57 pm
Yeah, Hank, we know what you mean. That was a solid effort tonight but I have the same feeling with him as I did with Valdez last year.
Clutch double by EY to start the inning.
August 6, 2005 at 5:59 pm
Astacio’s final defense independent line:
5.25 IP, 5.61 H, 3.31 ER, 3.97 K, 3.16 BB, 0.99 HR (5.67 ERA)
Astacio’s final traditional line:
6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR (3.00 ERA)
I’m glad he got out before his luck caught up to him. Quality start. I’ll take it.
August 6, 2005 at 6:01 pm
You don’t see that too often.
August 6, 2005 at 6:03 pm
Y’know, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a guy lifted in the middle of a plate appearance without there bein an injury. Have you guys?
August 6, 2005 at 6:07 pm
Just missed that one.
August 6, 2005 at 6:07 pm
Yeah, it happens every once in a while. Usually when the pitcher is behind in the count, though.
Randa crushed that one. I thought it was gone.
August 6, 2005 at 6:08 pm
thats what I’m talking about!!!
August 6, 2005 at 6:09 pm
Drese’s final defense independent line:
6.20 IP, 5.89 H, 2.08 ER, 1.19 BB, 3.97 K, 0.00 HR (3.02 ERA)
Drese’s final traditional line:
6.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR (4.50 ERA)
August 6, 2005 at 6:17 pm
Brutal at-bat by Sweeney against Eischen. Too bad we don’t have a good right-handed option off the bench.
August 6, 2005 at 6:18 pm
Nady is dead to Bochy.
August 6, 2005 at 6:20 pm
Maybe Carrasco will walk in a run. RHB are only hitting .190 or something like that against him.
August 6, 2005 at 6:22 pm
Or maybe Lo will battle, but ultimately fall short.
August 6, 2005 at 6:27 pm
In a normal platoon situation, Nady would have hit for Sweeney and remained in the game. Bochy is not even giving Nady the respect of a STRAIGHT platoon.
August 6, 2005 at 6:31 pm
Good, solid inning by Linebrink.
August 6, 2005 at 6:34 pm
And good point about Bochy’s disrespecting Nady.
August 6, 2005 at 7:00 pm
now, sweeney has to face a lefty again with runners in scoring position. He cant hit lefties for shit.. geeesh, how bout waking up Boch?
August 6, 2005 at 7:30 pm
I am sure glad that Trevor was able to nail it down. I didnt want to be grumbling all night about our failure to score after those golden opportunities in the 8th and 9th.
I know that it’s bad to second guess a manager when your team is on a winning streak but I sure wonder about some of Bochy’s moves(or non moves). But the bottom line is..we WON!!
GO PADRES!
August 6, 2005 at 7:34 pm
San Diego improved to 21-11 in one-run games. … The Padres hadn’t had more than one sacrifice fly in a game all season before Saturday. … The Padres said it was likely RHP Jake Peavy would make his scheduled start Sunday despite hurting the tip of a finger on his pitching hand on Friday.
August 6, 2005 at 7:50 pm
RHP Jake Peavy’s scheduled start in the series finale Sunday was thrown into a bit of doubt because of a bruised middle finger on his pitching hand. Peavy took a ball off the tip of that finger while shagging balls in batting practice Friday. His finger was black and blue, but he threw Saturday, and the club thought it was likely he would be able to start. He did not have X-rays on the finger. … Trevor Hoffman’s 29th save Saturday moved him within one of reaching 30 for a ninth season. It also put him two away from tying John Franco (424 saves) for second place on the career list, behind only Lee Smith (478). … After hitting .239 as a club in July, the Padres’ 11 hits Saturday night gave them at least 10 in five consecutive games.
August 6, 2005 at 8:59 pm
The “Blown Save” stat has some rough edges … case in point, this inning that started with Florida up 3-2 …
- K. Griffey Jr. doubled to deep right
- A. Dunn walked
- S. Casey singled to right, K. Griffey Jr. to third, A. Dunn to second
- G. Mota relieved B. Moehler
- A. Kearns grounded out to third, K. Griffey Jr. scored, A. Dunn to third, S. Casey to second
- J. Valentin intentionally walked
- R. Aurilia grounded into fielder’s choice, A. Dunn scored, S. Casey to third, J. Valentin out at second
- J. Cruz hit for L. Hudson
- J. Cruz struck out swinging
… Mota comes in, gets 3 outs and a blown save … ug.