Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

first pitch: 4:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (6-8, 4.92 ERA) vs Dontrelle Willis (15-8, 2.79 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

I’m working on a research project, so we’ll go a little light on the analysis for the rest of this week. Obviously, the win against the Fish Tuesday night was huge. Quick observations from the game:

• Brian Lawrence didn’t have the good stuff going, but he battled. Dude always gives a solid effort.
• Wilson Valdez reminds me of Donaldo Mendez. I don’t know how Valdez has managed to hit .207 in the big leagues with that swing.
• Winning run scores on a Miguel Olivo triple to dead center. Big deal, right? Mark Loretta was charging home on the pitch; Olivo missed the squeeze sign. Hey, whatever works.
• Did Joe Randa forget how to hit when he came to the Padres? His OPS is well below that of Sean Burroughs and more in the neighborhood of Jesse Garcia. Not what anybody had in mind, I’m sure. Randa is a free agent at the end of the season, so whatever value he has to the Friars is derived from what he’s able to do over the final 44 games this year.
• Congrats to Trevor Hoffman for notching his 424th career save, tying John Franco for second all time.

As for Wednesday, it’s more of the same. Get into the bullpen. Easier said than done with Willis, who has completed six or more innings in all but four of his 24 starts this year. Aside from a brief rough patch in July (29 IP, 7.14 ERA), he’s been lights out all season.

For the Pads, Williams is coming off his best start in a very long time. His season numbers aren’t real great, and he’s been cuffed around a bit away from Petco Park (.303/.359/.545 in 165 AB). Also, 7 homers in 34 1/3 innings since the All-Star break is a little disconcerting.

Another mismatch on paper. We won’t write it off because, as Darrell May and Chan Ho Park have reminded us, anything can happen. But I like the Pads’ chances a lot better Thursday, when Jake Peavy takes on Josh Beckett. With a win in the opener, the Friars have given themselves a legitimate shot at taking the series. Coming off a sweep at the hands of the Phillies, what more could they want?

first pitch: 4:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (6-12, 4.80 ERA) vs Jason Vargas (3-0, 2.38 ERA)
preview: ESPN | Padres.com

If the Marlins played in the NL West, they would be 3 games ahead of the Padres. In terms of wins and losses, the gap between the Fish and the Friars is the same as that between the Friars and the D’backs.

The Padres will be without the services of Khalil Greene for the next few weeks. Greene broke his toe in Sunday afternoon’s loss to the Phillies. Wilson Valdez has been recalled from Portland to take Greene’s spot on the roster. Valdez doesn’t hit much, doesn’t walk much, doesn’t have any power. Presumably he’s a good defender. Damian Jackson will get most of the starts at shortstop in Greene’s absence.

For the lowdown on the Marlins, check out episode 2 of Ducksnorts Radio. For good convo, hang out and start yappin’.

Go Pads!

Links

• August Update: BA Top 10 Padre Prospects (San Diego Spotlight). Peter Friberg revisits Baseball America‘s Top 10 Padres prospects, including the departed Travis Chick and Justin Germano, and the red hot Josh Barfield.
• Padres reliever gives up go-ahead runs in ninth inning (NC Times). It would be interesting to see Trevor Hoffman‘s splits in save vs non-save situations this year. Anybody have those?
• Hensley learns to slow down (NC Times). Brian Hiro spotlights rookie pitcher Clay Hensley, who credits Portland Beavers pitching coach Gary Lance for adjusting his mechanics to create more movement on his pitches. I’d still like to see him get a shot at the rotation, but I’m happy he’s contributing.
• Sub-.500 club retains favored role (U-T). I just have to give Tom Krasovic props for citing Baseball Prospectus.
• BayBears’ bats batter Biscuits (Mobile Register). First off, great headline. Second, Padres’ first-round pick Cesar Carrillo gave up one run on three hits over seven innings, striking out eight at home against Birmingham. Double-A isn’t proving to be much of a challenge for Carrillo: 24.2 IP, 19 H, 7 BB, 27 SO, 2.92 ERA in four starts.
• Chris Oxspring named Pitcher of the week in PCL (Scout.com). Oxspring is 28 years old but he knows how to pitch. Another guy I wouldn’t mind see getting a shot at some point down the stretch.

first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Chan Ho Park (9-5, 5.72 ERA) vs Robinson Tejeda (2-2, 2.86)
previews: ESPN | Padres.com

Padres fall back to .500 after Saturday night’s meltdown. Everyone else in the division lost also, so they didn’t lose any ground.

Sunday the Friars try to avoid being swept by the Phillies and losing the homestand before heading out east to play even better teams. After the big league contest, the Lake Elsinore Storm play host to the High Desert Mavericks at Petco Park. Not sure if the game will be televised, but first pitch is 5 p.m. Arturo Lopez goes against Patrick Green.

The Storm are in the midst of a 13-game losing streak, which sort of puts the Padres’ current struggles into perspective. On the other hand, the Storm have already clinched a playoff spot based on their first half performance.

The Mavs are an affiliate of the Kansas City Royals, and their biggest prospect is outfielder Chris Lubanski. If you check out the Mavericks’ stat sheet, you’ll see some gawdy offensive numbers. Bear in mind that their home park in Adelanto is one of the most extreme hitting environments in all of professional baseball.

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Pedro Astacio (3-10, 5.85 ERA) vs Vicente Padilla (5-11, 5.00 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

For the second straight game, the Padres face a pitcher with an ERA of exactly 5.00. Unfortunately, unlike Friday night the Friars aren’t sending a better pitcher out there. No offense (pun intended), but if you let Jon Lieber shut you down, you deserve what you get.

Jake Peavy pitched a great game. That’s not what he’ll tell you but aside from some first-inning struggles, he did just fine. Peavy isn’t the guy who ran the bases poorly in the seventh. Peavy isn’t the guy who made sure Xavier Nady never saw the light of day, even when flamethrowing lefty Billy Wagner entered the contest.

Saturday night features Padilla, who started against the Padres in Philly on July 22. Padilla allowed three runs over six innings, and the Phillies eventually won in the 11th on a walkoff two-run jack by Chase Utley. This was the fifth defeat in a row for the Pads, in what turned out to be an eight game losing streak.

The Padres figure to stack the lineup with lefties against the Nicaraguan born righthander, who has some pretty extreme splits:

Not a lot of Padres have faced him much. The ones who have generally have done pretty well, and most of the success (with the notable exception of Mark Loretta) has come from lefties. Here’s how Saturday night’s starters have fared against the opposition:

Pretty much everyone hits Astacio. Kenny Lofton is 0-for-11, and Jimmy Rollins is hitting .115/.207/.231 over 26 career at-bats. The rest? Of the guys who have 10 or more plate appearances against Astacio, Mike Lieberthal, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, and Todd Pratt all have OPS higher than 1000 in those matchups.

For the Padres, it’s Ryan Klesko (.462/.588/.769 in 13 AB), Loretta (.455/.500/.818 in 11 AB), and Robert Fick (.333/.368/.444 in 18 AB) doing most of the damage. In a smaller sample, Brian Giles (.500/.636/1.375 in 8 AB) has put up some Nintendo numbers against Padilla.

My advice? If you want to see the starters pitch, better get to the park early.

Linkapallooza

• Padres activate Seanez from DL (Yahoo). Craig Breslow is sent to Portland to make room. Did you know that Seanez is fifth on the team in strikeouts?
• Klesko must go back to first base (Padres.com). I dunno. I can’t really get too worked up over where Klesko plays as long as Nady continues to ride pine.
• Floyd angry after Otsuka hits him in knee (NY Newsday). Quoth Floyd: “We already lost two of our guys, and instead of just putting four fingers up and walking me, he throws the ball right into my knee. You can’t let teams disrespect you like that.” It’s like Ray Davies says: paranoia will destroy ya.
• Beavers find hitting power for home win (Oregonian). Sean Burroughs hits a grand slam!
• Conversation with Dustin Delucchi (PDX Beavers). Jonathan chats with the Beavers center fielder. Delucchi is, among other things, a childhood friend of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
• Padres Lose By One, Nady Watches From Bench (Future Friars). Richard is glad to see the 26-year-old stud hitter get the rest he needs. No, not really. He’s pissed, like the rest of us.

Tunes: Beck, White Stripes, Kurt Elling, Pinback, R.E.M., The Killers, Muse.

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (10-4, 3.11 ERA) vs Jon Lieber (10-10, 5.00 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

Padres took the Mets series with a 2-1 victory at Pecto Park Thursday afternoon. Woody Williams worked seven strong innings, and Joe Randa paced the offense with three hits, including a game-winning RBI single to score David Ross in the seventh. Ross, batting for Williams, tripled earlier in the inning on a ball that resulted in a collision between Mets outfielders Carlos Beltran and Mike Cameron.

ESPN reports that Cameron has been placed on the DL due to a broken nose, multiple fractures of both cheekbones, and concussion. Geez, that must’ve been one heckuva crash. Here’s wishing Cameron a speedy recovery.

Next in town, the Phillies. Friday night’s starter, Lieber, is second among all big-league pitchers to the Reds’ Eric Milton in homers served. Although Lieber pitches in one of the better hitters’ parks around, he’s equally adept at giving up bombs on the road.

We covered this in the podcast, but the Phillies feature a pretty robust lineup, top to bottom. Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell are the mainstays. Then there are the kids on the right side of the infield: Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Both are 26 or younger, and both can flat rake. And their manager lets them play. The Phillies also have a stud reserve outfielder in Jason Michaels. Dude is an on-base machine, and he has a little pop in his bat.

Like the Mets before them, the Phillies come to San Diego with a better record than the home team. The good news, if you’re a Padres fan, is no Brett Myers this weekend.

Looking for more good news? Dave Roberts and Khalil Greene are starting to produce again:

With Bruce Bochy’s continued reluctance to give Xavier Nady the playing time he deserves, the Padres need help from anywhere they can get it. Speaking of which, have you noticed how well the new catchers have done (in an admittedly small sample)? Ross and Miguel Olivo are hitting a combined .333/.371/.667 over 33 at-bats.

That’s all I’ve got. You know where to go for more Padres coverage.

Looking for more Phillies coverage? Might I recommend Michael Berquist’s excellent A Citizen’s Blog. Right now he’s got a listing of how often teams in the NL employ the sacrifice bunt. Some readers of Ducksnorts may be surprised to see that the Padres rank near the bottom. In fact, only the Phillies, Pirates, and Reds sacrifice less frequently than the Friars.

Some more solid work over at Balls, Sticks, & Stuff. Former Padre outmakerfielder Shane Victorino is now in the Phillies organization. Who knew? Apparently he’s doing quite well. Good for him.

Get the dirt on the opposition. Then head out to the game tonight or hang out here. And watch the Padres win.

first pitch: 12:35 p.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Woody Williams (5-8, 5.16 ERA) vs Tom Glavine (8-9, 4.50 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

Lawrence the Bad showed up Wednesday night. For the third time in 2005, he was touched for seven or more runs in a game. The eight runs he allowed matched the season high against a Padres starter (Tim Redding, May 8 at St. Louis). Brian Lawrence was fighting his command early and often, and when he does that, bad things happen.

On the bright side, the division still stinks and the Pads didn’t lose any ground. They’re still up 4 games on Arizona, which I can’t believe is still in second place. The D’backs have outplayed their Pythagorean by 7 games this year, more than any other team in either league. The only team in the NL with a worse Pythagorean record is the Rockies, and even they are only 1.5 games behind Arizona. Heck, throw in the AL and you can add Tampa Bay and Kansas City to the list of teams worse than the Snakes. So, the 27th best Pythagorean record in all of baseball is good enough for second place in the NL West.

Did I mention the division stinks?

Thursday afternoon sees the vets go at it. A matchup between two guys born in 1966. Ah, 1966. The Beatles are more popular than Jesus. Ernesto Miranda wins a court case. Martin Luther King marches in Chicago. Two future big-league pitchers are born. And today they face each other at Petco Park.

Both have seen better days. Glavine has 270 career victories under his belt, but opponents this year are hitting .315/.371/.436 against him (think Mark Kotsay in a good year). Williams has a shade fewer wins. And although his ERA in 2005 is higher than Glavine’s, the opposition isn’t hitting that much better off him: .278/.332/.459. The big difference is that Glavine allows mostly singles (75% of hits), while Williams has been much more prone to the extra base hit (just 66% of hits allowed are singles).

It’s the rubber match. It’s a day game. Let’s win the series, shall we?

Tunes: Howie Day, Dead Can Dance, Jamie Cullum, Heavy Vegetable, Keali’i Reichel, Elliott Smith, Cheb Mami.