We talk about Xavier Nady a lot around here. Most of the time we whine about his lack of playing time. But last week, The Fathers made a real good point in the comments about the quality (or lack thereof) of pitchers against which Nady has homered this season.
Because it’s lame to present only one side of the argument, and because my judgment is probably a bit clouded when it comes to Nady (I really want to see him succeed, and I want it to happen here in San Diego), I thought it’d be good to look into this claim a little further. So I did, and you know what I found? The Fathers is onto something.
Good Hitting, Bad Pitching, or a Little of Each?
Average Line of Pitchers Who Have Allowed Homers to Padres’ Top Home Run Hitters in 2005
| Player (HR) |
IP |
ERA |
WHIP |
H/9 |
HR/9 |
BB/9 |
SO/9 |
| Ryan Klesko (16) |
105 |
4.73 |
1.417 |
9.64 |
1.22 |
3.11 |
5.98 |
| Xavier Nady (13) |
97 |
5.35 |
1.522 |
10.56 |
1.23 |
3.14 |
5.70 |
| Brian Giles (12) |
127 |
4.21 |
1.331 |
8.90 |
0.98 |
3.09 |
6.09 |
| Khalil Greene (10) |
133 |
4.58 |
1.347 |
9.19 |
1.12 |
2.93 |
5.65 |
For each of the Padres’ top home run hitters this season, I compiled a list of pitchers they’ve homered against. I then took the season totals of each of those pitchers (through games of August 22) and came up with an “average” line.
Nady certainly is taking advantage of a lower class of pitchers than are the other three guys. Ryan Klesko has feasted on some pretty bad pitching as well, but half of his 16 home runs have come against pitchers with an ERA under 5.00. Giles and Greene? They’ve homered off some good arms, especially Giles.
An ERA under 5.00 may not sound like a very high standard, but consider that only two of Nady’s 13 bombs have been hit off such pitchers (Esteban Loaiza, 3.66 ERA; Greg Maddux, 4.56). Klesko at least has the occasional Brad Radke (3.78), Brandon Webb (3.89, twice), Jason Marquis (4.36), or Kerry Wood (4.36).
Giles is the one hitter who has been able to take real good pitchers deep, including Pedro Martinez (2.86), John Garland (3.43), Matt Morris (3.80), and the aforementioned Webb. Giles’ first two jacks of the season came at Coors Field, against Joe Kennedy (6.44) and Jason Jennings (5.02). Since then, just one of his 10 homers has been off a pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 (Brad Hennessey, May 27 at San Francisco).
Greene falls somewhere in between. He’s victimized a couple of pitchers who have been awful this year (Aaron Sele, 5.90; Jeff Francis, 6.01), but he’s also taken guys like Pedro, Kris Benson (3.89), and Jason Schmidt (4.41) deep.
That’s Nice, but Why Isn’t Nady in the Lineup Every Day?
The point of researching these questions isn’t to find numbers that support a predetermined conclusion. It’s to look for reasons why something may or may not be happening. In this case, I’ve been frustrated and baffled by Nady’s frequent absence from the lineup. But after looking a little closer, I’m less baffled than I was.
I still believe that Nady is good enough to play every day. But right now what the numbers tell me is that he’s good enough to abuse bad pitching, and the jury is out on the rest. (We’re looking at who Nady has had the most success against, not how he’s fared against all pitchers.) Viewing things in that light, I can at least understand Bruce Bochy’s reluctance to expose his young slugger to some of the league’s better pitchers.
With quality at-bats like the ones against John Smoltz Sunday night in Atlanta and Roy Oswalt Monday night back home, Nady is getting there. We’ll have to keep an eye on how Nady responds as he’s put into more challenging situations throughout the remainder of the season against other top pitchers.
Thanks to The Fathers for leading me in this direction of inquiry. As always, the most interesting aspect of this blog, to me, is the dialogue we have and the ideas that folks come up with through our discussions.
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