IGD: Padres @ Giants (12 Sep 2005)
Mon, Sep 12, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 7:15 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (12-7, 5.83 ERA) vs Kevin Correia (2-5, 4.31 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
magic number: 15
[Note: When I first started working on this, the matchup was supposed to be between Eaton and Jason Schmidt. No such luck, but I thought the comparison between the two was interesting enough to post, so that's what you're getting. Also, Barry Bonds is scheduled to return to the Giants lineup Monday night. We'll talk more about that after it actually happens, hopefully in the context of how the Padres won despite his presence.]
Because Jason Schmidt shows up at #8 on Adam Eaton’s list of similar pitchers through age 26 at Baseball-Reference.com, because both pitchers hail from the state of Washington, and because we all get a good junior-high-school laugh when we say Eaton-Schmidt, I decided to take a look at how these two pitchers compared with one another at roughly the same stage in their careers. Thanks to David Pinto’s Day by Day Database, it was a breeze:
| Age | GS | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eaton | 27 yrs, 10 mos | 126 | 768.0 | 4.29 | 8.81 | 1.13 | 3.19 | 7.01 |
| Schmidt | 27 yrs, 4 mos | 123 | 770.0 | 4.52 | 10.29 | 0.95 | 3.79 | 6.59 |
You already know this, but I have to say it anyway. The following is not a representation of what Eaton will do in the future. It is merely a look at what someone who exhibited characteristics similar to those of Eaton at roughly the same stage in their careers went on to do. The best we can do is speculate that Eaton might follow a similar path. With that disclaimer out of the way, here’s what Schmidt has done:
| GS | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schmidt | 147 | 960.2 | 3.49 | 7.43 | 0.71 | 3.34 | 9.13 |
Basically, Schmidt made huge strides in hit prevention, home run prevention, and strikeouts, and a more modest improvement in walk prevention. That’s a recipe for a major breakthrough.
What about individual game dominance (where dominance is arbitrarily defined as 7+ IP, 10+ SO, or 2+ (IP-H))? Have a look:
| 7+ IP | 10+ SO | 2+ (IP-H) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eaton | 46 (36.5% of starts) | 5 (4.0%) | 41 (32.5%) |
| early Schmidt | 56 (45.5% of starts) | 3 (2.4%) | 34 (27.6%) |
| late Schmidt | 77 (52.4% of starts) | 22 (15.0%) | 61 (41.5%) |
This still tells us more about Schmidt than about Eaton, but it’s instructive in its way. Schmidt started going deeper into games (a relative strength of his to begin with), and kicked his dominant games into high gear. I don’t know how those numbers compare with the entire league, but here’s what the Padres starters have done since 2000 (through September 9, 2005), a span of 950 games:
| 7+ IP | 10+ SO | 2+ (IP-H) |
|---|---|---|
| 308 (32.4% of starts) | 26 (2.7%) | 245 (25.8%) |
Schmidt’s early-career high-strikeout and low-hit games are fairly well in line with a decent sample of Padres starters. Again, his ability to go deep into games has always been pretty good. Eaton’s numbers are all slightly above average among Padres starters. Maybe it would help to see how Eaton compares with another current Padre, Jake Peavy:
| 7+ IP | 10+ SO | 2+ (IP-H) |
|---|---|---|
| 35 (34.0% of starts) | 10 (9.7%) | 37 (35.9%) |
Not much help, but this does point up just how terrific Schmidt has been over the past 5 years. I think Peavy has taken over the title of best starting pitcher in the NL West (keep your eye on the Giants’ Matt Cain, though), but he’s still not approaching some of the dominance that Schmidt has displayed over the latter part of his career.
So, what does any of this have to do with Eaton? It’s pretty clear that he and Schmidt share a lot of characteristics through their first 770 or so innings in the big leagues. It’s also clear that Schmidt made a monumental leap and was able maintain his new level of performance for a very long time. Also ― and this is where things get a little more subjective ― if you watch Schmidt, he’s got #1 starter stuff. Eaton? Not quite. He has a great arm, but he’s probably closer to Andy Ashby than Kevin Brown, if you get my drift. And there’s certainly no shame in that.
To summarize: Could Eaton take a leap similar to the one Schmidt took? Yes, but don’t count on it. Is it reasonable, based on their early-career numbers, to expect such a leap from Eaton? Probably not; more likely, Schmidt is the aberration. Does this mean Eaton won’t take a step up at some point in the near future? No, but it probably won’t be as big as the one Schmidt took. What is the most likely scenario for Eaton? Slow, steady improvement over the next few years; with no statistical evidence whatsoever to back me up on this, I believe the Eaton we saw earlier in the year before he landed on the DL is the Eaton we’re going to see in 2006.
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September 12, 2005 at 10:11 am
Speaking of comparables, PECOTA lists Frank Castillo (of ‘96) as Eaton’s closest (with a score of 70, which is quite high).
September 12, 2005 at 11:45 am
Thanks for the Schmidt-Eaton comp … yes, that’s a Jr High grin on my face
Farm Report: Carillo with 9 K’s in 5 IP in the Storm’s playoff W on Saturday … http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....x_lesafx_1
Storm is now up 2-0 in best-of-5 in the California League South Division Championship Series … so if they win that, they’ll play for the Cal League championship … which seems like it’d get Carillo another start …
Go Storm!
September 12, 2005 at 12:11 pm
Thanks for the report, LM. Almost makes me wish I’d gone to the game. But then I wouldn’t have gone to see “40-Year-Old Virgin” and gotten the laughs that I needed. Excellent flick, BTW, assuming you (not LM; generic “you”) aren’t easily offended.
September 12, 2005 at 3:11 pm
From the Yahoo/AP story from yesterday’s game …
Padres RHP Jake Peavy is expected to throw on the side before Monday night’s game in San Francisco. Peavy, 12-6 with a 2.93 ERA, hasn’t pitched since Sept. 4 because of pain in his right shoulder. The Padres hope he’ll be able to start Friday night against Washington. “We think he’s going to be fine,” Bochy said
… anybody hearing/reading anything else?
September 12, 2005 at 4:59 pm
Going to the game. While I have seen some Padre wins at SBC over the last few seasons, the bulk of my viewing them up here was during that ugly 42-15 stretch they had against us (1999 - 2003). So, I still have a sense of dread going there.
Two potential sources of drama, one bad, one good: Barry comes back and has a monster offensive night
OR
Eaton flirts with the Padres first no-hitter.
Let’s hope my words of encouragement somehow drift down to the Padre dugout.
September 12, 2005 at 6:15 pm
Jay: Have fun at the game; we’ll be thinking good thoughts.
LM: Haven’t heard anything more about Peavy yet.
Richard: Meant to mention this earlier. I find the Castillo comp fascinating. I can see it, statistically, with the mediocre hit prevention and the nice SO/BB ratio. But stuffwise (and I’m doing this from memory - it’s been years since I’ve seen Castillo pitch), I’d think more along the lines of Lawrence without the extreme groundball tendencies. Good info, sir.
September 12, 2005 at 8:29 pm
Storm are up 4-1 after 3 innings in 3rd game of their division series (they are leading the best-of-5 series 2-0) …
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....x_lncafx_1
September 12, 2005 at 8:30 pm
Eaton doesn’t “look” to be in top form (I’m just “watching” on Yahoo) … high pitch count (56 thru 3 IP) … just gave up leadoff HR to Durham to tie the game at 3-3 in bottom of 4th …
September 12, 2005 at 9:01 pm
Eaton looks to be in normal form to me. I’ve had the impression all year that he hasn’t taken any kind of step forward. It’s very frustrating to witness.
September 12, 2005 at 9:23 pm
Eaton’s final #s for the evening …
Pitches-strikes - A Eaton 111-77; K Correia 27-9; M Kinney 75-40; J Taschner 12-10.
Ground balls-fly balls - A Eaton 6-8; K Correia 0-1; M Kinney 7-6; J Taschner 2-1.
Batters faced - A Eaton 27
IP H R ER BB K HR Season ERA
A. Eaton 6.0 10 4 4 0 4 1 3.97
… gotta like the 0 BB’s I s’pose …
September 12, 2005 at 9:24 pm
Storm up 10-4 batting in top of 6th …
September 13, 2005 at 12:03 am
Geoff, I am going to have to tentatively side with Eric on Eaton. What about his 2005 numbers distinguish them from his 2003 numbers? His peripheral numbers, even before he was injured, just aren’t that inspiring for someone so close to free agency, and he still has those meltdown innings. Is it possible that his early success was due to a statistical fluke, basically his extraordinary BAA with RISP and other potential scoring situations?
I would like for him to be a #2, and I think he has the stuff to do it, but I think he has the makeup of a weak #3/strong #4. I hope he can prove me wrong, but consistently giving up 3 runs a start is not something that encourages me; he needs to mix in a fair share of 0 and 1 run outings.
September 13, 2005 at 6:58 am
TF: You may be right about Eaton. It seemed visually that he was doing better earlier in the year, but I’m looking at those 13 starts before he got hurt in Detroit, and the only ones that are jumping out at me are 4/11 @ ChN, 5/13 vs Fla, and 6/9 vs Cle. The one thing he was doing better was keeping the ball in the park: 0.79 HR/9 pre-injury this year vs 1.26 HR/9 in 2004. No doubt Eaton needs to be more consistent if he’s to take the next step forward. It happened with Schmidt, it happened with Matt Clement. Where Eaton goes from here is anyone’s guess. As you say, more 0 and 1 run outings would help.
September 13, 2005 at 10:46 am
The good news Geoff is that the Padres have at least one more year to wait on Eaton to become the starter that we hope he can be.