first pitch: 7:15 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (7-14, 4.74 ERA) vs Noah Lowry (12-12, 3.82 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
magic number: 15
Dearest Padres of San Diego:
Thank you ever so much for scoring three runs in the first inning of our recent base ball match and then refraining from scoring further runs so that we might rally against you and claim victory for our side, thus enabling our humble clubs to remain in a playoff race which, by all rights, should have ended long ago. Your gesture showed tremendous compassion for your fellow man and will be acknowledged in the grandest way possible should we somehow manage to overtake your detachment and win the esteemed National League West title. Your considerable efforts toward our cause will be known to all who follow our great and noble sport. Again, we give thanks to you for the tremendous opportunity you have provided us. You have truly gone above and beyond the call of sportsmanship, and we shall not soon forget your graciousness, your gentility, and, of course, your gifts.
Humbly and very respectfully yours,
Mssrs. Brad Penny and Kevin Correia
Jared is doing Wells … http://www.usabaseball.com/sports/m-pro-basebl/recaps/090605aab.html
I was at that stupid game. My thoughts: if no Barry, we roll over that team. Three quick outs to start the game, then a 8 or 9 pitch battle, leading to a double that led to a couple runs back.
I know Klesko has not done much, but I sure like him in left over Johnson. 1rst and 3rd, one out, 2-0 pitch to a new pitcher. Take a pitch. No, lines out, medium hard to second. Kinney ends up walking the next batter (granted ahead of the pitcher), but walks two more later.
Giles base running. Thrown out twice, on one of them he did that weird stutter step and got nailed on a bad throw.
Sweeney is not the Sweeney we have been blessed with all season. His SF was nicely struck, but the others were soft fly outs.
Eaton battled. Our pitchers are studs. Too bad we can’t hit. Our second half OPS = .698. Jake Peavy at .781 (granted good for a pitcher) puts him comfortably ahead of Eric Young (.749), Roberts (.740), Loretta (.715), Randa (.697), Nady (.695), Greene (.668), Fick (.666), Klesko (.631) and DJ (.494).
As much as I like to highlight Bochy’s failings, our guys are just not hitting. No great hypotheses about that. Some guys are showing some life in September (Roberts, Hernandez, X, Johnson). This may be more a failure of Towers than Bochy. Or bad luck. Let’s hope we don’t emulate the ’64 Phillies, becoming the ’05 Padres.
They wouldn’t have even scored three runs if the Giants hadn’t gifted them to the Padres: BB, HBP, BB, WP, Sac Fly, 1B.
Six shutout innings from Matt Kinney (lifetime ERA of 5.23 prior to last night — for quick reference, Tim Redding’s is 5.16 in nearly the same number of innings)?
At least it’s comforting to know that Bruce Bochy seems to have his finger on the pulse of the team: “This isn’t going to get it, this offense,” Bochy said after the team’s 53rd defeat in 91 games since June 1.
Funny. Gee, while I whine on PadreTalk, you cut like a surgeon to the core of how we all feel with biting sarcasm. Nice work, Goff.
Its getting hard to watch and even harder to write about, no?
The other important question is, can the Gigantes or Dogbones catch us? 19 games left, 13 of them with teams we have touble with lately, Gi, Dg, Rks. I assume the Az and the DC are beatable (big assumption). We are playing lousy lately. Are we gripping, tired, or more interested in getting to the golf course? After last night, I think we are in trouble.
Every time we’ve lost 2 in a row lately, it’s seemed like it’s going to be EASY to blow the lead … but then I see BP’s STAT OF THE DAY
Top 5 NL Playoff Contenders
Team, Average Wins, Postseason Odds
St. Louis Cardinals, 101.4, 100.00%
Atlanta Braves, 93.0, 99.32%
San Diego Padres, 82.2, 96.18%
Houston Astros, 86.5, 49.76%
Florida Marlins, 85.1, 25.91%
… and I’m reminded of unbiased reality. Yes, it’s still blow-able … but not as likely as it feels today …
Jay – if you know someone with a BP Premium subscription, you might find some insights into the ’64 Phillies at their web page …
Playoff Odds Report, 1964
The Phillies’ Collapse
by Clay Davenport
The popularity of the Playoff Odds Report spurred requests for past-season reports.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4427
dprat – can you provide a synopsis?
Blowable, interesting word, but I won’t go there. Everytime I get depressed about this team they won some games, so I’m during my part today by not taking my meds.
BG has it exactly right, Gift runs last night and we still lost. What is wrong with our hitting. Seems like we get guys on base, but can’t get them over. What happened to the station to station team we had in May, working counts, stealing bases, hitting line drives. We actually, Sweep the Cardinals in May, remember!
Well, here we go again.
I read somewhere after Penny won his start, he was commenting about how to even up the record at the end of the season, Padres only have to go 10-10 (at the time) while the Dodgers have to go 16-4.
‘I don’t see them going 10-10′ said Penny.
Seems like it, doesn’t it? Then again, I don’t see the Giants nor the Dodgers winning 2 out of 3 games every time out the rest of the way.
But, I am concerned. Really….when a Matt Kinney can shut the Padres out for 5+ innings…..
The perception of getting guys on but not home does hold up in the data.
Total: (rank out of 16 NL teams)
OBP-5
SLG-15
OPS-12
Away:
OBP-3
SLG-9
OPS-7
Home:
OBP-8
SLG-15
OPS-14
So while judging from our away numbers, we are decent offensive team, but much better at getting on base then slugging. I checked our batting average with RISP and we are in the middle. So, without power, we blame lack of “clutch” when it is lack of power. It just takes too many clustered hits to get people in. If you have enough extra base hits mixed in, either you get guys in or you get guys to third with less than two outs allowing a lot of ways to score without another hit.
Think about our sources of power, and how feeble they have been.
Change in slugging, ’04 vs. ’05
Giles: +.015
Klesko: -.018
Greene: -.034
Hernandez: -.058
Burroughs: -.065
Nevin: -.093
Loretta: -.143
So, of our regulars, Loretta has been the biggest disappointment. He went from a stellar offensive player to a mediocre one, driven by a collapse in his power. Still gets on, but only singles.
Nevin we know about; Burroughs big step back hurt a lot as well. He was not a big source of power (.365 to .300; but .300 slugging means nothing but singles).
Greene is having an awful sophomore year, and Hernandez’s collapse does not make sense.
So, how much can we blame Towers? Loretta’s great years over the last two were probably way above what anyone expected, so, overall, the Loretta bet was a good one, but he may have been hoping too much that it would continue. Hard to replace or challenge Loretta after last year, but contigency might have been good.
Of the the aging big 3, Towers has been trying to dump Nevin for years. Hard to ding him on that. The other have been holding up, though Klesko’s second half has been horrid.
Too much exposure to both Greene and Burroughs stepping ahead, when both pulled back. Getting Randa seemed reasonable, but he is been barely adequate.
Here’s to hoping that Klesko and Randa find their stroke in the last few weeks. We need it badly.
LM et al,
There wasn’t much in Davenport’s article about the ’64 Phillies’ collapse that applies directly to our Padres. He notes that while we remember the Phillies collapse, we may forget how hot the other teams had to get at the same time to catch ‘em: the Cards won 8 straight, and the Reds went 10-1. Also, it seems that the Phillies may have been playing over the heads… that is, perhaps (the article isn’t really clear on this) both the Reds and Cards had a better adjusted winning percentage than the Phillies even before the collapse began.
So, the good news…the Padres currently have an adjusted winning % of .484 – yes, that sucks, but it’s better than the Dodgers’ .446, D’backs’ .430, or Giants’ .427.
And the bad…that 96.18% chance of making the playoffs slipped to 93.55878% after last night’s loss.
Jay: Nice analysis. Greene and Hernandez can be forgiven somewhat due to injuries. Loretta also, although he completely fell off the face of the earth. Burroughs, obviously, was a huge disappointment this year. It’s a little easier to stomach the 34-year-olds who maybe are leaving their prime than it is a kid who should be emerging.
Here’s something else that’s been bothering me for a while. The Pads have outhit the opposition at home, .259/.333/.384 (717 OPS) to .245/.309/.386 (695), but have been outscored, 293 to 269. That sounds inefficient to me.
Geoff – Combine poor baserunning, no speed, a mind-blowing inability to create productive outs (for example, moving a runner from 2B to 3B with no out or scoring a runner from 3B with less than two outs), little power (note the slightly lower Slg% despite having a higher BAvg) and a manager with the offensive creativity of a donut and that’s how you get outscored by 24 runs at home.
How many games this year have we thought to ourselves, “If the Padres can just win this one, they’ll pretty much end the Giants’/Dodgers’/DBacks’ year”, only to have the Padres lose, often disgustingly? A dozen? More? Tonight is another one of those games. At least they’ve gotten themselves in a position where one win in a three game series should be enough to hold off any contender.
Honestly? These discussions should have ended at least six weeks ago. The Bonds scenario was the one that concerned me most, and now it’s upon us. I’m hoping he’s arrived to the party too late, but at this point, I’m not ruling out anything.
This kind of reminds of hearing a weird sound on an airplane. You wonder, “Is this the first noise that is a prelude to a fiery tradegy or, just a one of those noises that will pass?” The Padres keep making these horrible noises, but, thus far (thanks to our lame competitors) the plane keeps flying and we all can kind of nervously chuckle.
I am not chuckling anymore. I got widening eyes. The stewardess is clearly concerned but not panicking. But…; a few more nasty noises (like a sweep in SF), I am all out panicking.
A friend of mine wrote me today, summarized it well (he is a Mets fan): “I still don’t get the Padres — they have undeniable flaws, but they certainly seem like they should be a solid playoff team, a 90-win team, not floundering around .500 and keeping their pathetic NL West competition in the “race”.”
Just to add to the ineptitude of the Padres to score runs at home is also the below average defender in the outfield.
The opponents are hitting 30 more 2Bs and 1 more triple at Petco Park. How many times we’ve seen balls hit by the oppositions that fell for a hit while similarly hit balls by the Padres made long outs.
OK, looking at the scenario of the Padres going 6-13 the rest of the way with 3 games against the Dodgers and 6 more vs. the Giants, the Padres are looking at finishing the season at 77 wins.
To tie, the Dodgers have to go 11-8 (.579) and the Giants 12-7 (.632) the rest of the way. Definitely doable. I can’t believe this scenario is still plausible at this point of the season.
Crazy. I’ll stop now. Go Padres!
didi, despite all of the issues this team has, they have played above .500 ball since August 1. Plausible that they don’t make the playoffs, yes; reasonably possible, no. Reread the BP Playoff Odds posted above, and repeat as a mantra, breathing deeply.
We have not been playing that well, but I certainly do not see us going six and thirteen. I think we squeak it out…but I am getting nervous.
I think Bonds is too late, although certainly not too little. But I despise the man. Considering how he played last night, he could not have been available for pin-hitting two weeks ago? The man is feared by me for how he changes a ballgame, but respected? I can’t use that word even when talking about his talent. Not towards him.
Hey! We scored in multiple innings!
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) – The San Diego Padres activated right-hander Pedro Astacio from the 15-day disabled list Tuesday and he will start Saturday against Washington.
The 35-year-old Astacio went on the DL on Aug. 29, a day after straining his right quadriceps muscle in a win over Colorado. He is 2-2 this season with a 3.76 ERA in nine outings, seven starts.
3-3 in the fifth. Great analysis folks. I guess the next question is who Sandy (who does he spell his name) keep? We have to move Klesko but Johnson in another project who don’t look good in the field. Nady, Christ he’s been down and out for a while. Even Giles doesn’t seem to be able to hit at Petco. I would hate to see this same team at spring training next year. Might be time to move out the hitting coach as wwell.
Double switch! All drink! (Apologies, Hank.)
Hank?! I’m the one who says that!
Oh. Sorry, Kevin.
What do we do after a strike-’em-out-throw-’em-out double play? Drink a lot?
Yep..drink a lot is a good idea watching this team..
Why is it that 5-8 means game over. Like to see some stats about come from behind wins for the Pads. Probably not too many.
So, going to bed. Night all.
OK, this one has been bugging me all year and even though the game is long over I need to vent. Can someone explain to me the logic of having a guy try to steal second with one out and two strikes on the batter? Of all the stupid plays a team can do nothing burns me up more than a strike em out throw em out. I’m not mathematically inclined enough to crunch the numbers but it just seems like the risk/reward here has got to be the worst of any “small ball” strategy. The only time this should even be considered is when Dave Roberts is running.
I’d much rather take my chances on grounding into a double play. That actually requires the batter to make contact, something that is much less likely than a strikeout given the Padres performance as of late.
While I’m venting, why is Klesko being used as a pinch hitter? His performance after the break is making Burroughs look like Pujols.
This is the most agonizing pennant race I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been a Red Sox fan most of my life. At least if they were just choking and spiraling down we could give up on them but they just keep winning 1 out of 3, 2 out 4 or 2 out of 5 and it’s barely enough to keep them in the race. If they let the Giants win tomorrow it’s time to get worried. I could easily see the Giants going on a run with Bonds back and taking those last 4 against the Padres in a couple of weeks. I think it’s extremely likely they’ll have a better record than the Padres the rest of the way, it’s just a question of how much better.
I surprised this hasn’t been mentioned before but….Manny Alexander?