The Padres went 13-15 in the month of August. Despite outhitting the opposition, .248/.326/.385 to .246/.305/.377, and again outhomering them, 26 to 23, the Pads managed to be outscored, 107 to 105. Adrian Gonzalez (.248/.333/.386 in 101 AB), Josh Barfield (.220/.273/.374 in 91 AB), and Mike Piazza (.203/.268/.344 in 64 AB) all scuffled, and Mark Bellhorn (.146/.255/.250 in 48 AB) did his best Vinny Castilla impression. Injuries to Khalil Greene and Chan Ho Park caused problems as well.
On a positive note, Dave Roberts tore the cover off the baseball (.371/.417/.454 in 97 AB). His outfield mates, Mike Cameron (.276/.342/.495 in 105 AB) and Brian Giles (.255/.402/.431 in 102 AB) contributed as well.
The pitching? Outstanding. Among big-league teams, only the A’s (3.25), Dodgers (3.27) and Astros (3.41) had lower team ERAs than the Padres (3.51) in August. Clay Hensley (1.82 ERA in 29.2 IP) and Jake Peavy (2.87 ERA in 37.2 IP) were brilliant in the rotation, while Trevor Hoffman and Cla Meredith hurled 24 1/3 scoreless innings between them, allowing just 12 hits and 3 walks during that stretch.
Power of Perception
The Padres sat idly by and didn’t make any signifcant moves to help down the stretch. The moves they did make either failed to address the areas of greatest need or came at too high a cost.
This is the perception, but how well does it match reality? Let’s take a quick look:
- 1 Aug 2006: Jose Ceda to Cubs for Todd Walker
- 24 Aug 2006: Evan Meek and cash/PTBNL to Devil Rays for Russell Branyan
- 1 Sep 2006: cash/PTBNL (now known to be George Kottaras) to Red Sox for David Wells — technically this happened in September, but we’ll include it for sake of completeness
Walker was brought in to play third base, which he hadn’t done in 9 years. Not surprisingly, he struggled there, particularly with his throws, and matched Castilla’s season error total in less than a month. Walker also has seen action at first and second base.
Branyan came over from Tampa Bay three weeks later to provide additional support at third. As with Walker, the cost was an A-ball pitching prospect.
Aside from the errors, what did two minor-league pitchers and future considerations net the Padres in August? Check it out:
Walker and Branyan, August 2006
| Player |
AB |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| Walker |
64 |
.313 |
.408 |
.453 |
| Branyan |
12 |
.417 |
.467 |
.917 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. |
Put those together, and you’ve got a .329/.418/.526 line in 76 at-bats. Not bad.
Compare and Despair
But what about the Dodgers? They went 21-7 in August. They snagged Wilson Betemit right from under the Padres’ noses. Betemit is a potential short- and long-term solution at third base, and he would’ve only cost Scott Linebrink? How could the Pads watch their chief competitor make a deal for one of the best available options? And once the Dodgers did land Betemit, how come the Padres didn’t focus on Houston’s Morgan Ensberg?
Good questions. We’ve seen what Walker and Branyan have done since coming to San Diego, and we’ve seen what the Pads had to give up (not much) to get them. How about Betemit, Ensberg, and Linebrink? What did they do in August?
Betemit and Ensberg, August 2006
| Player |
AB |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| Betemit |
93 |
.237 |
.287 |
.484 |
| Ensberg |
67 |
.209 |
.404 |
.299 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. |
Betemit led the Dodgers with seven homers in August, but it came at the cost of a sub-.300 OBP. Ensberg got on base at a real nice clip but slugged like Sean Burroughs. Even if you took the best of Betemit and Ensberg (.404 OBP/.484 SLG), you’d end up short of the production provided by Walker and Branyan. And instead of two A-ball pitchers, you’d be missing Linebrink:
Linebrink, August 2006
| IP |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
| 10.2 |
3.38 |
1.41 |
8.44 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. |
Not outstanding, but still pretty darned useful. If Linebrink is gone, then what? A rookie (Cla Meredith) as your main setup guy, with Alan Embree and Jon Adkins/Doug Brocail next in line? As much as I love what Meredith is doing, and as much as we statheads like to think that all relievers are interchangeable parts, I’m not sure how comfortable I’d be with him in the eighth inning role. Linebrink had a rough stretch earlier in the year and he’s far from the dominant reliever he was for the better part of three seasons, but he’s a lot more useful to the Padres right now than are two pitchers in A-ball.
Okay, but You’re Forgetting Maddux
No, I’m not. And I’m not forgetting Julio Lugo either.
Look, the Dodgers robbed the Cubs in the deal for Greg Maddux. They picked up a future HOFer and cash in exchange for light-hitting Cesar Izturis. Admittedly Maddux wasn’t having much of a season before coming to LA, but this looks terrible right now. Maddux went 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in six August starts for the Dodgers. This leaves Padres fans scratching their heads, wondering why we couldn’t have gotten Maddux for a (s)crappy middle infielder. Well, if Manny Alexander were 10 years younger, maybe the Pads could have. But he’s not, so they didn’t. And honestly, who could have foreseen the run that Maddux is having? He sported a 4.69 ERA at the time of the trade and looked like he might be done.
Yes, I know it’s easy to look at Izturis-for-Maddux and wonder why the Padres had to part with a top prospect to land even fewer starts from the even older David Wells. We’ll get to that in a minute, but first I’d like to focus on the other deal the Dodgers made at the beginning of August.
On the same day they acquired Maddux from the Cubs, the Dodgers also picked up infielder Julio Lugo from the Devil Rays for minor leaguers Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza. I don’t know much about Pedroza, and frankly, I don’t care. The key to this deal is Guzman. He’s been a shortstop but he’s probably going to end up at third base or in a corner outfield spot. Guzman was ranked #26 by Baseball America among the Top 100 prospects for 2006. Check out this quote, from an anonymous scout, that accompanies Guzman’s name in said list:
I had scouted Chipper Jones and A-Rod before and to me, Guzman’s bat was better. At 16 years old, the kid was as good as or better than anyone I’d ever seen.
Acknowledging that people can get hyperbolic in their praise and that players don’t always develop the way we think they might, does this sound like the kind of prospect you’d give up for a guy like Lugo? Especially when you don’t even have a regular spot for Lugo and are forced to play him out of position? Tell me you wouldn’t be calling for Kevin Towers’ head if he’d been the one to make this deal. Put it another way: As a Padres fan, I’m thrilled that the Dodgers sent Guzman out of the division. The fact that Lugo hit .235/.319/.296 in 81 August at-bats for LA is just gravy.
Okay, but the Padres Still Overpaid for Wells
Yes, they probably did. It happens. But if we’re going to compare the Padres’ moves with those of the Dodgers, then we have to recognize that Kottaras is a much lesser light than is Guzman, and Wells likely will help the Pads more down the stretch and in the playoffs than will Lugo. In other words, if we’re going to credit our competitors for making good moves, we have to penalize them for making bad ones. And to my way of thinking, Guzman-for-Lugo is much worse than Kottaras-for-Wells.
Looking at this from a different angle, the fact that the Cubs undersold Maddux doesn’t (or shouldn’t) diminish Wells’ value to a playoff contender. If I’m dangling Wells and you start pointing to the Maddux deal as a reason you shouldn’t have to give up Kottaras, my response is, “Look, do you want him or not? I’m talking to three other guys, you’ve got 24 hours to decide.” Or something along those lines.
Moving Kottaras hurts, but it’s not going to cripple the organization. The Padres haven’t put all their catching eggs in one basket like they did years ago with Ben Davis (or at third base with Burroughs), and they’ll come out of this okay. In the same way, the loss of Guzman won’t kill the Dodgers because their farm system is so freakin’ deep. They can afford to fling prospects around because they’ve got a lot of them and other teams know it. When the Padres move one of their top kids, it stings a little more because the system is much thinner (although this is gradually changing).
The flip side is that our top prospects aren’t as good as a lot of other top prospects. This sounds like a justification, and maybe it is, but the Red Sox supposedly were asking the Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, or James Loney for Wells. I could almost see Loney, but even he is at least as good a prospect as Kottaras. Those other two guys are serious studs. The Padres don’t have anyone like Kemp or LaRoche lying around as trade bait. Most teams don’t.
Point is, even though the Padres may have overpaid for six weeks of Wells, Kottaras wasn’t going to help them down the stretch. The difference between sending Wells out there every fifth day versus Mike Thompson is, no offense to Thompson, potentially huge. Wells also gives the Padres another weapon in the post-season (assuming they get there) and sends a message to players that management is committed to winning. And before you dismiss that last argument as fluff, consider that the Pads will have a good deal of money to spend (or at least consider spending) on free agents.
As beautiful as San Diego is, it’s a fantasy to think that everyone will accept the so-called “San Diego discount.” These guys are rich beyond our understanding. They can live anywhere they want and be a day away from wherever they need to be. Most ballplayers want to win championships. And bringing in someone like Wells tells not only current players but also potential future players that if the club has a chance, they’re going for it. Pretty good selling point, I’d think. Seriously, how do the Pirates or Royals attract free agents?
Right.
Bigger Picture, Please
Sure, it’s simple. The Dodgers made some high-profile moves and got hot in August. We don’t know if the two events are related, but both of these things happened. The Padres made some lower-profile moves that are looking pretty good right now but so far they haven’t translated into wins. With a month remaining, the Friars are well within striking distance. Through games of September 3, Baseball Prospectus had them at roughly 50% to make the playoffs — better odds than those of the defending champion White Sox.
There’s still plenty of baseball left. It’s a drag that the Padres weren’t able to acquire the players that we wanted them to, but the guys they ended up getting have been contributing. If the Pads can stay healthy, they should be in pretty good shape. And once you get into the playoffs, anything can happen. Ask the 1987 Twins.
It doesn’t have to be beautiful, it just has to work. Like it or not, the Padres have given themselves a chance. August wasn’t great, but it wasn’t a disaster either. It only looks like one in comparison to what the Dodgers did.
But hey, it’s only one month. And if you don’t believe me, just look back to July, when our neighbors to the north tied Tampa Bay for the most losses (17) in the big leagues. They came back pretty strong the following month; who’s to say the Padres won’t do the same?
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