first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young (10-5, 3.66 ERA) vs Jeff Francis (11-10, 3.64 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
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The White Sox used Journey’s “Don’t Stop Believin’” as their rallying cry down en route to a World Series title in 2005. Maybe the Padres need a song from the ’70s to help them down the stretch. Any ideas? Please, no Seals and Crofts.
After that inning, he’s 27th (passed Matt Cain).
P-Mac is back!
Among the 404 pitchers to have faced at least as many batters as Meredith (123), Meredith has allowed the lowest wOBA (.165). wOBA for those unfamiliar is (.72*UBB+.75*HBP+.9*1B+.92*ROE+1.24*2B+1.56*3B+1.95*HR)/PA and the league average is .338 (it basically models OBA).
The second lowest wOBA? Papelbon at .205 which would be just over 4 runs worse than Meredith over Cla’s 123 PA.
One could actually expand that group to the 583 pitchers to have faced at least 29 batters and Cla still tops it.
Adkins and Brocail have both been better than Linebrink this year.
Actually, so have Sweeney and Embree.
Scotty scares me now, where he used to be automatic.
Well, he’s still the seventh best reliever on the team. Oh and who throws Castilla something hittable on the first pitch? Letting Vinny get a hit is a HUGE failure for any pitcher.
Why would you throw anything resembling a strike to Vinny on the first pitch?
Who among us wouldn’t use their 7th best reliever in the 8th inning with a two run lead?
Vinny Castilla continues to kill us, this time while wearing the opposition’s uniform.
Matty V makes the point that Scotty wasn’t trying to throw a strike, he just doesn’t have good control.
Linebrink might be having the seventh best season, but he’s not the seventh best reliever on this team.
That said, he’s gotten a bit scary of late.
Linebrink does an excellent job of setting up the Rockies there, as now there four best hitters are the next four hitters to bat in the ninth.
Richard (112), That’s comforting.
Gonzo almost goes yard opposite field.
One game out of first.
- T. Helton flied out to right
- G. Atkins flied out to deep center
- M. Holliday grounded out to first
… just a routine save for Trevor!!!
Hoffman: 473rd save. Six away from the record.
At a certain point, one does have to look not only at a player’s history and stuff, but his results this season. I’m not sure what that point is because I haven’t done the math, but I think we’re getting closer every time Scotty pitches.
That was a terrific game. Thanks everyone!
Just noticed a nice pic of Meredith at Yahoo … http://tinyurl.com/pk2rh … how long can he keep this up?
Notes from AP …
RHP Jake Peavy, who broke a rib last season when celebrating on the night the Padres clinched the NL West title, was almost injured in another celebration on Monday night. After Josh Barfield hit a winning three-run homer in the ninth inning, Peavy got spiked on a toe on his left foot while celebrating with teammates at home plate. Peavy said Tuesday that he was fine the day after. … Padres manager Bruce Bochy gave 1B Adrian Gonzalez his second straight game off. Bochy said he wants to make sure that Gonzalez, who has played in 131 of San Diego’s 137 games, is fresh heading into the final weeks of the season.
i am traveling, but it sounds like i missed a great game…
Did Cla get the win?
*Dodgers have another tough opponent tomorrow. Hard to believe the Brewers, with their superb pitching staff could lose 10 in a row. When I saw the pitching matchups for the series, I thought the Brew Crew could sweep . Let’s hope I am right.
*I can’t understand why Bochy didn’t bring in Embree to face Helton leading off the 9th tonight? Was that statistic that said Helton was hitting .632 against Hoffman correct? Not the best decision to bring him in in a 1-run game, and Bochy’s a big lefty vs. lefty guy. It all worked out, though, so I guess I can’t complain.
In Bochy’s defense, a pitcher’s record against a particular hitter has virtually no predictive value.
RE: #126
Hoffman (R)/Embree(L)
Helton (L)
I haven’t looked at Helton’s avg. against the pitchers above, but I am assuming he has a higher avg. with more extra-base hits against Hoffman than Embree. How about a wager?
I’ll give you a choice, Richard:
You have a one run lead. The left-handed batter at the plate has a .632 avg. with 10 HRs in 70 at-bats against one righty pitcher in your bullpen and a .193 avg. with 0 HRs in 54 at-bats against the lefty in your bullpen. Who do you bring in? You say it just doesn’t matter, virtually. Like in cards, when a new hand is dealt, the odds of each combination are the same. And you justify your choice by saying, “No predictive value guys!”
While a very small sample size may prove your theory valid, there has to be some predictive value if you compare a guy who has gotten repeatedly bombed by a particular hitter or a guy who has repeatedly made a hitter look silly. If not, why not rotate relievers based purely on rest, not on situations and match ups?
Have you ever heard a pitcher say, “That guy just owns me!” If the pitcher had a choice of facing the guy that murders him against a guy he has dominated in a pressure situation, which batter would the pitcher choose? Why?
And are all managers just ignorant of the “no predictive value” theory when they put a right-handed line up in against a lefty pitcher? Or is this incorrect? Or maybe I am not understanding what you are implying. Perhaps some statistics or a link will set me straight.
Gotta love winning, especially when Blum and Alexander are your SS.
BigKTFan (great name, btw):
I’m basing my assertion on the conclusions drawn from huge amounts of research done by the guys who wrote “The Book.” I’m also not saying that you should manage your bullpen purely on rest. If the lefty and righty pitchers are equal in talent, you want the lefty against a LHB and the righty against a RHB. However, if the RHP is significantly better, you want him against both the RHB and LHB. Things like GB% of both the hitter and pitcher come into play when making a decision like that, too.
I don’t have the numbers in front of me, so I’m not confident that Bochy made the (in)correct choice. What I am confident of is that 17 PA (or whatever it was) mean dick.