Ducksnorts reader SD Padres Gal was kind enough to send me some photos she took while sitting directly above the Padres dugout in a recent game at Petco Park against the Washington Nationals. I’ve posted the photos at Flickr — check ‘em out and be sure to thank SD Padres Gal for sharing these excellent pics with us.
IGD: Padres @ Rockies (27 Aug 06)
first pitch: 12:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Jake Peavy (7-12, 4.35 ERA) vs Aaron Cook (8-12, 4.05 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
buy tickets
Padres go for the series win at Coors Field Sunday afternoon behind their hottest pitcher, Jake Peavy. If he isn’t quite “vintage Peavy,” he’s getting pretty darned close. Peavy has gone 7 innings in five of his past six starts. His numbers during that stretch: 40.1 IP, 27 H, 3 HR, 14 BB, 41 SO, 2.01 ERA. Yeah, that’s more like it.
On the other side, Aaron Cook’s ERA continues to hover around 4.00 despite striking out just 3.58 batters per 9 innings and calling Coors Field home. (Amazing aside: Cook hasn’t allowed a road homer in 320 at-bats this year.) The key for Cook, as always, is serving up grounders. Among National League pitchers, only Brandon Webb and Derek Lowe have higher GB/FB ratios than Cook’s 3.07. Cook also has some pretty severe lefty/right splits, with the former hitting him to the tune of .323/.376/.486 and the latter at a paltry .263/.299/.334.
Russell Branyan, whose acquisition from the Devil Rays we chronicled on Friday, makes his Padres debut today. He was in the on-deck circle Saturday night in the eighth inning but Manny Alexander’s fly ball landed in Matt Holliday’s glove at the left field wall, keeping Branyan on the bench. He’ll be at the hot corner this afternoon, with Todd Walker shifting over to second base, as manager Bruce Bochy stacks the lineup with lefties against Cook.
Go Padres!
IGD: Padres @ Rockies (26 Aug 06)
first pitch: 5:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Clay Hensley (7-10, 4.07 ERA) vs Jason Jennings (7-10, 3.32 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets
Bad news is, the Padres got spanked in the opener at Coors Field. Good news is, the Dodgers and Reds both lost, so the Friars remain a game back in the NL West and a game and a half back in the wild card races.
In unrelated news, I’m continuing to import all the old Ducksnorts stuff into the new site — it’s taking more time than I’d anticipated but we’re getting there, and it’s fun to reminisce. I converted three months (October – December 2002) this morning, and here are some posts I thought you might enjoy while we’re waiting for the game to start:
- Brock2 Projections for Eight Rising Stars. Some of the comps are interesting: Adam Dunn vs Brian Giles, Albert Pujols vs Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano vs Jeff Kent.
- Running Commentary on Game 1 of the 2002 World Series. It’s weird to think how few baseball blogs there were back then that I would even attempt something like this. I was coding everything by hand when I wrote this one, so I must’ve hit the old FTP software pretty hard that night. Blogging tools have come a long way since then, but a part of me misses the days when you had to be a geek to have a web site.
- What Might the Padres’ 2003 Lineup Look Like? Wiki Gonzalez, Ramon Vazquez, Deivi Cruz, Eugene Kingsale. Anyone still wonder whether it’s better to be in the midst of a pennant chase or be stuck with truly lousy players?
- Frivolous Friday. Say hello to the blogging equivalent of prog rock. I swear I was sober when I wrote this. Man, I used to throw some weird stuff up here.
- Why the Rumored Nevin for Griffey Deal Made No Sense. Remember this? I like the ending, where I actually say something smart for a change: “I’d rather see them pursue Brian Giles, who is younger, cheaper, healthier, and more productive at this point in their respective careers than is Junior. Plus he’s from San Diego. What could be better?”
Ah, good times. Thanks for your indulgence. Go Padres!
IGD: Padres @ Rockies (25 Aug 06)
first pitch: 6:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Mike Thompson (3-4, 4.40 ERA) vs Jeff Francis (9-10 3.38 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
buy tickets
Can you even imagine where the Padres would be right now without Mike Thompson? With Chan Ho Park likely done for the year, chances are we’ll be seeing a lot more of Thompson down the stretch and into the playoffs (assuming the Pads get there).
For the Rockies, Jeff Francis deserves Cy Young consideration for what he’s been able to accomplish at Coors Field. Well, not really, but he’s holding opponents to a .189/.264/.333 line at home. That is freakishly impressive. Francis also sports a 2.20 ERA over eight starts since the All Star break.
With just 35 games remaining, they’re all huge. One at a time, till there ain’t no-one left to beat. Go Padres!
Friday Links (25 Aug 06)
Happy Friday! While we’re busy debating the merits of the Russell Branyan acquisition, here are some links for you:
- Stauffer hopes spot start can be opportunity to shine (The Saratogian). Local paper talks about Tim Stauffer’s 2006 debut against the Dodgers this past week. I still can’t believe how well he did given the circumstances.
- Padres make room for Hensley (Houston Chronicle). This one’s a little old, but Sam Khan Jr. has a nice little profile on Houston product and Padres starter Clay Hensley.
- The Padres Very Much Value Your Patronage (Deadspin). Cool story about an email a Padres season ticket holder received after asking not to be contacted by the team about purchasing post-season tickets. Speaking of value, why aren’t Deadspin commenters adding any?
- Independents’ day dawns for Wizards (Fort Wayne Journal-Gazette). Sarah Trotto tells the stories of four kids the Padres found in Independent leagues who are now at Low-A Ft. Wayne. One of them, reliever Nathan Staggs, played with the Surf Dawgs. All of them are fighting long odds to reach the big leagues.
- Sikorski translates success in Japan into spot with Tribe (Akron Beacon Journal). I know Brian Sikorski hasn’t been with the Padres for a while now, but I still think his return from Japan is a neat story.
- Baseball America has posted AFL Rosters. Padres will send RHP Jonathon Ellis, RHP John Hudgins, RHP Leonel Rosales, C Colt Morton, 3B Chase Headley, OF Vince Sinisi.
- As Coronado Mike noted in the comments the other day, Tangotiger is running his annual scouting report project. In his words, “I want you to tell me what your eyes see. I want you to tell me how good or bad a fielder is.” I haven’t participated in these before because I haven’t felt qualified, but I’m thinking this year I can fill in at least a few of the blanks for the Pads. Something is better than nothing, right?
That’s all for now. Padres at Coors for three starting tonight. We’ll have the IGD up at 5 p.m. Be there or be rhomboid.
Call Him ‘The Breeze’: Padres Acquire Branyan
The Pads made a deal Thursday night, picking up Russell Branyan from Tampa Bay for Class-A right-hander Evan Meek and future considerations. I probably shouldn’t like this move, but I do.
For one thing, Branyan is one of the most fascinating players in baseball. Here are some of his freakish career numbers:
BA | OBP | SLG | ISO | XB/H | AB/HR | BB/PA | P/PA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
.229 | .323 | .479 | .250 | .516 | 15.6 | .116 | 4.10 |
Stats are courtesy of ESPN and are through games of August 24, 2006. |
Not that Branyan is anywhere near the complete package the guy I’m about to compare him to is, but the power numbers match up pretty well with those of Troy Glaus (.252 ISO, .477 XB/H, 15.5 AB/HR). Like Glaus, Branyan also sees a lot of pitches and draws some walks.
Flaws? Yeah, he’s got a few. Branyan’s strikeout frequency is epic. You’ll hear Rob Deer‘s name invoked when folks talk about Branyan, but that doesn’t even begin to do the latter justice.
Deer had 4512 plate appearances during his big-league career. Over that period, he fanned 31.2% of the time. Branyan, meantime, has struck out in 35.0% of his trips to the plate. Give him the same number of plate appearances as Deer, and Branyan would have 170 more strikeouts. Heck, even plate appearances against Billy Wagner end in a punchout only 33.3% of the time.
Branyan is the active career leader in strikeout frequency. You know who’s second? Mark Bellhorn, at 29.1%.
Anyway.
I’ve added Branyan to the Padres organizational tree. No word on what impact Branyan’s arrival will have on our Will Play Third Base for Food T-shirts. The guess here is, none whatsoever.
Gap Dirt
Fans in the left field bleachers are chanting “Beat LA.” Cla Meredith comes on to work the ninth. As Meredith puts the finishing touches on a three-game sweep, a drunk Dodgers fan in front of me is chanting “Second Place” (you can do a lot with three syllables — I went with “What’s the Score?”). Between chants, he’s yelling at anyone who will listen — something about real fans, blah blah blah, look at me I’m drunk, woo-hoo!
He’s like a very angry David Spade. A cross between Gap Girl and Joe Dirt. He’s looking for a fight. Actually, he’s looking for someone to hold him back. Did I mention this guy has a friend? Well, maybe not a friend, but a companion.
Companion dude is having none of Gap Dirt’s act. Like, I don’t know this guy. Yeah, I came here with him but he’s on his own.
It’s equal parts hilarious and pathetic.
But Gap Dirt is on a roll. He can’t stop. Even after the final out, he’s still running smack. And he’s frustrated that nobody will pay attention to him because everyone is delirious from completing the sweep and seeing the Padres get back into the race.
I’ve got no gripe with Dodgers fans in general — I grew up in Monterey Park and Culver City, bled Dodger Blue for the first 20 years of my life. But this guy is out of control.
He’s acting like a Giants fan.
So I make some smart-ass comment like “Good try, Dodgers; you’ll get ‘em next time.” Gap Dirt is ecstatic. Someone has acknowledged his existence. He glares at me and says — wait for it — “I’m not even a Dodgers fan, you idiot.”
What a coincidence; I’m not even an idiot, you Dodgers fan.
I don’t say that, of course. He’s free to have the last word because all anyone has to do is point to the scoreboard. I turn and walk away with a smile, leaving Gap Dirt to contemplate his place in the universe and the fact that he’s out of beer.
Sucks to be him.
* * *
That was some terrible officiating Wednesday night. The strike zone was inconsistent, Julio Lugo was tossed from the game for no apparent reason, Joe Beimel committed a balk that wasn’t called, and the fifth inning was just plain bizarre. There’s some good discussion at Dodger Thoughts on the latter. It was baffling to watch in person, and whatever the outcome, there shouldn’t have been that long of a delay to resolve it. Either rules were transgressed or they weren’t; if anyone should know whether or not they were, it would be the umpires.
Or, in this case, Padres manager Bruce Bochy.
* * *
Chan Ho Park is out at least a month following intestinal surgery. The good news is, doctors were able to identify and correct the problem. Here’s wishing Park a speedy and full recovery.
* * *
Off-day Thursday, then three over the weekend at El Humidor. Padres are a game back in the NL West and in the wild card race. Trevor Hoffman needs 10 more saves to pass Lee Smith as the all-time leader. Life is good, folks.
IGD: Padres vs Dodgers (23 Aug 06)
first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Woody Williams (6-4, 3.67 ERA) vs Brad Penny (13-6, 3.70 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
buy tickets
Since pitching in the All-Star game last month, Brad Penny is 3-4, with a 5.70 ERA. Opponents are hitting .282 against him, and have knocked eight homers in 43 2/3 innings pitched. Penny has allowd six runs in three of his seven starts since the break, with the Cardinals (7/16), Padres (7/26), and Giants (8/18) all having benefited from his generosity.
Woody Williams, meantime, is healthy, which is more than can be said about most of the Padres rotation. The U-T does a nice job of recapping our current status. In a nutshell:
- Chan Ho Park has returned to the disabled list due to intestinal bleeding. Supersub Mike Thompson will start in Park’s place on Friday at Coors Field.
- Clay Hensley, recovering from a “left buttocks strain,” is good to go.
- Chris Young threw on Tuesday and felt okay. His next scheduled start isn’t until Wednesday in Phoenix. If Young can’t make it, Tim Stauffer could start in his place.
I’ll be out at the game tonight. I don’t bring brooms — it’s a karma thing — but here’s hoping for the sweep. Go Padres!
I’ll Drive Myself Home, Thanks
The other day I was looking at Mike Piazza’s batting line and noticed something weird. Dude has 18 homers this year, but only 28 runs scored. Granted, if he gets on base late in the game and the Padres are leading, Rob Bowen will run for him (which explains his 20 runs scored despite all of 92 plate appearances this season), but still.
So I got to wondering how Piazza’s run totals compared with those of some other guys. The first question I wanted to answer is, “Who scores the greatest percentage of runs as a result of his own hitting?” This is pretty straightforward. I just made a list of everyone who has 300 or more plate appearances and divided home runs by runs. The results are hardly surprising:
Player | PA | R | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | HR/R |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Piazza | 340 | 28 | 18 | 0.277 | 0.338 | 0.502 | 0.643 |
Ryan Howard | 527 | 73 | 43 | 0.293 | 0.383 | 0.617 | 0.589 |
Richie Sexson | 502 | 52 | 26 | 0.233 | 0.305 | 0.457 | 0.500 |
Lance Berkman | 485 | 70 | 34 | 0.313 | 0.416 | 0.617 | 0.486 |
Ken Griffey Jr. | 417 | 52 | 25 | 0.250 | 0.309 | 0.487 | 0.481 |
David Ortiz | 560 | 93 | 44 | 0.287 | 0.400 | 0.627 | 0.473 |
Frank Thomas | 412 | 55 | 26 | 0.265 | 0.386 | 0.518 | 0.473 |
Jeromy Burnitz | 318 | 34 | 16 | 0.229 | 0.289 | 0.435 | 0.471 |
Josh Willingham | 417 | 39 | 18 | 0.268 | 0.343 | 0.478 | 0.462 |
Damon Hollins | 307 | 31 | 14 | 0.228 | 0.274 | 0.426 | 0.452 |
Stats are courtesy of David Pinto’s Day By Day Database and are through games of August 21, 2006. |
Piazza and Willingham are catchers; Howard, Sexson, Ortiz, and Thomas are gigantic, lumbering 1B/DH types; Berkman and Griffey have battled leg problems this year; and Burnitz and Hollins don’t get on base. Probably the most shocking result here is that those last two guys have managed to amass 300 plate appearances.
At the opposite end of the spectrum are a bunch of slap hitters, most of whom get on base at a decent clip:
Player | PA | R | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | HR/R |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joey Gathright | 331 | 46 | 0 | 0.222 | 0.323 | 0.268 | 0.000 |
Nick Punto | 345 | 54 | 0 | 0.316 | 0.400 | 0.418 | 0.000 |
David Eckstein | 525 | 65 | 1 | 0.289 | 0.349 | 0.329 | 0.015 |
Willy Taveras | 451 | 65 | 1 | 0.276 | 0.326 | 0.333 | 0.015 |
Juan Pierre | 565 | 62 | 1 | 0.287 | 0.331 | 0.389 | 0.016 |
Jason Kendall | 457 | 52 | 1 | 0.287 | 0.359 | 0.337 | 0.019 |
Cory Sullivan | 364 | 42 | 1 | 0.280 | 0.327 | 0.417 | 0.024 |
Dave Roberts | 417 | 60 | 2 | 0.306 | 0.376 | 0.412 | 0.033 |
Kenny Lofton | 383 | 59 | 2 | 0.318 | 0.373 | 0.418 | 0.034 |
Aaron Hill | 456 | 53 | 2 | 0.291 | 0.344 | 0.373 | 0.038 |
Stats are courtesy of David Pinto’s Day By Day Database and are through games of August 21, 2006. |
If you ever need evidence that speed kills, look no further than Gathright. He’s the new Omar Moreno. The only thing that kind of speed kills is a rally. At the other end, Kendall’s presence on this list baffles me. Catchers aren’t supposed to be here.
Among qualifying Padres, Dave Roberts relies most on his teammates to drive him in:
Player | PA | R | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | HR/R |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dave Roberts (8) | 369 | 60 | 2 | 0.306 | 0.376 | 0.412 | 0.033 |
Brian Giles (68) | 552 | 64 | 10 | 0.274 | 0.386 | 0.397 | 0.156 |
Joshua Barfield (79) | 460 | 56 | 10 | 0.277 | 0.315 | 0.415 | 0.179 |
Mike Cameron (144) | 483 | 68 | 18 | 0.266 | 0.348 | 0.485 | 0.265 |
Khalil Greene (161) | 456 | 52 | 15 | 0.247 | 0.320 | 0.430 | 0.288 |
Adrian Gonzalez (176) | 488 | 62 | 20 | 0.293 | 0.344 | 0.497 | 0.323 |
Mike Piazza (239) | 340 | 28 | 18 | 0.277 | 0.338 | 0.502 | 0.643 |
Stats are courtesy of David Pinto’s Day By Day Database and are through games of August 21, 2006. Rank out of 239 qualifying players is given in parentheses. |
You Mentioned a Second Question?
Yes, and it’s a bit more hypothetical: “If nobody ever hit a home run, who would score the fewest runs.” I know it’s kind of an absurd thing to ask (and never mind the fact that we’d have to take away runs resulting from other players’ homers as well), but bear with me.
The formula is simple: (R-HR)/PA*500. We’re finding the number of runs each player scores independently of his own homers and then expressing that as a total per 500 plate appearances so everyone is on the same footing.
Player | PA | R | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | (R-HR)/PA*500 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Piazza | 340 | 28 | 18 | 0.277 | 0.338 | 0.502 | 14.71 |
Yadier Molina | 360 | 21 | 5 | 0.217 | 0.272 | 0.331 | 22.22 |
Josh Willingham | 417 | 39 | 18 | 0.268 | 0.343 | 0.478 | 25.18 |
Brian Schneider | 354 | 22 | 4 | 0.241 | 0.311 | 0.317 | 25.42 |
Richie Sexson | 502 | 52 | 26 | 0.233 | 0.305 | 0.457 | 25.90 |
Damon Hollins | 307 | 31 | 14 | 0.228 | 0.274 | 0.426 | 27.69 |
Ben Molina | 355 | 33 | 13 | 0.281 | 0.315 | 0.445 | 28.17 |
Jeromy Burnitz | 318 | 34 | 16 | 0.229 | 0.289 | 0.435 | 28.30 |
Ryan Howard | 527 | 73 | 43 | 0.293 | 0.383 | 0.617 | 28.46 |
Travis Lee | 361 | 32 | 10 | 0.216 | 0.302 | 0.356 | 30.47 |
Stats are courtesy of David Pinto’s Day By Day Database and are through games of August 21, 2006. |
No real surprises here either. More catchers and large first basemen. This table confirms two things:
- The Pirates (Burnitz) and Devil Rays (Hollins) really stink.
- If you are a catcher and can’t hit, you still have a chance, especially if your last name is Molina.
And on the flip side:
Player | PA | R | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | (R-HR)/PA*500 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reed Johnson | 392 | 74 | 11 | 0.324 | 0.398 | 0.510 | 80.36 |
Rickie Weeks | 411 | 73 | 8 | 0.279 | 0.363 | 0.404 | 79.08 |
Nick Punto | 345 | 54 | 0 | 0.316 | 0.400 | 0.418 | 78.26 |
Scott Podsednik | 478 | 77 | 3 | 0.261 | 0.333 | 0.369 | 77.41 |
Jose Reyes | 545 | 98 | 14 | 0.293 | 0.349 | 0.482 | 77.06 |
Hanley Ramirez | 523 | 90 | 11 | 0.270 | 0.338 | 0.424 | 75.53 |
Kenny Lofton | 383 | 59 | 2 | 0.318 | 0.373 | 0.418 | 74.41 |
Chase Utley | 563 | 103 | 22 | 0.320 | 0.385 | 0.533 | 71.94 |
Jimmy Rollins | 570 | 100 | 19 | 0.280 | 0.342 | 0.472 | 71.05 |
Willy Taveras | 451 | 65 | 1 | 0.276 | 0.326 | 0.333 | 70.95 |
Stats are courtesy of David Pinto’s Day By Day Database and are through games of August 21, 2006. |
This is an interesting mix of up-and-coming offensive dynamos (Weeks, Reyes, Ramirez, Utley), established veterans (Lofton, Rollins), guys having a career year (Johnson, Punto), and guys whose mediocrity is largely obscured by a strong supporting cast (Podsednik, Taveras).
Here’s how the Padres do:
Player | PA | R | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | (R-HR)/PA*500 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dave Roberts (16) | 369 | 60 | 2 | 0.306 | 0.376 | 0.412 | 69.54 |
Mike Cameron (102) | 483 | 68 | 18 | 0.266 | 0.348 | 0.485 | 51.76 |
Joshua Barfield (114) | 460 | 56 | 10 | 0.277 | 0.315 | 0.415 | 50.00 |
Brian Giles (126) | 552 | 64 | 10 | 0.274 | 0.386 | 0.397 | 48.91 |
Adrian Gonzalez (176) | 488 | 62 | 20 | 0.293 | 0.344 | 0.497 | 43.03 |
Khalil Greene (194) | 456 | 52 | 15 | 0.247 | 0.320 | 0.430 | 40.57 |
Mike Piazza (239) | 340 | 28 | 18 | 0.277 | 0.338 | 0.502 | 14.71 |
Stats are courtesy of David Pinto’s Day By Day Database and are through games of August 21, 2006. Rank out of 239 qualifying players is given in parentheses. |
Again, Roberts leans most heavily on his teammates, while Piazza is extremely self-reliant.
Other questions we might ask are how Piazza’s numbers this year rank historically — both by season and for a career; and maybe also what are some shared characteristics of hitters who are (or are not) driven in by others — physical size, foot speed, ability to get on base, who bats around them in the lineup, overall success of team, etc.? I’m not sure what we would learn from answering those types of questions, but the exercise might point us in interesting directions.
IGD: Padres vs Dodgers (22 Aug 06)
first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Jake Peavy (6-12, 4.55 ERA) vs Mark Hendrickson (5-13, 4.31 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
buy tickets
Jake Peavy is enjoying a strong August, which makes for a refreshing change. His monthly ERAs are all over the place this year:
Month | ERA |
---|---|
Apr | 5.17 |
May | 3.32 |
Jun | 5.28 |
Jul | 7.13 |
Aug | 2.39 |
With the pitching staff being in a state of serious disrepair, now would be a good time for Peavy to continue his mastery of the month. Last time out against the Giants, Peavy needed just 93 pitches to get through 7 innings. That’s the most efficient he’s been all season. Interestingly, despite Peavy’s overall high pitch totals this year, he’s actually made five starts where he’s thrown fewer than 14 pitches per inning. (He’s also made 11 where he’s thrown more than 18 per inning, but that’s another story.) Efficiency is good. Eight innings would be real nice. Not that we’re asking for much.
On the Dodgers’ side, some curious splits for Mark Hendrickson. First, lefties (.297/.388/.416) hit the southpaw better than do righties (.261/.328/.392). Second, he’s been brilliant (2.75 ERA in 72 IP) on the road this year. Does this mean anything? Quien sabe, kimosabe.
It doesn’t have to be pretty, it just has to end in victory. Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their Padres. Go get ‘em, boys!
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