IGD: Padres vs Rockies (6 Sep 06)
Wed, Sep 6, 2006
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Clay Hensley (8-11, 4.05 ERA) vs Jason Jennings (7-12, 3.61 ERA)
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Our hearts were ringing
In the key that our souls were singing.
As we danced in the night,
Remember how the stars stole the night away.
Not exactly a battle cry, but it will do. I’ll be out at Petco Park tonight, so you’re on your own for this one. Padres are a game back with 24 remaining. Give me that any year.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 6, 2006 at 6:19 pm
Marlins pitcher has a no-hitter through 8.2 tonight (4 walks)
September 6, 2006 at 6:21 pm
And he does it! First of the year, I think.
September 6, 2006 at 6:54 pm
In case you missed my reply… BigKTFan (great name, btw):
I’m basing my assertion on the conclusions drawn from huge amounts of research done by the guys who wrote “The Book.” I’m also not saying that you should manage your bullpen purely on rest. If the lefty and righty pitchers are equal in talent, you want the lefty against a LHB and the righty against a RHB. However, if the RHP is significantly better, you want him against both the RHB and LHB. Things like GB% of both the hitter and pitcher come into play when making a decision like that, too.
I don’t have the numbers in front of me, so I’m not confident that Bochy made the (in)correct choice. What I am confident of is that 17 PA (or whatever it was) mean dick.
September 6, 2006 at 6:55 pm
Anyone who hasn’t read “The Book,” should really check it out. It’s a phenomenal read.
September 6, 2006 at 7:04 pm
what’s a franchise got to do to get a freakin’ no-no? Florida has FOUR already. Sheesh, we don’t even have a cycle from a hitter yet do we? WATFO?
September 6, 2006 at 7:06 pm
Thanks, Richard. I’ll have to get it. Not sure how many at-bats Helton had against Hoffman. A smaller sample size has less meaning, but there has to be a threshold where one can begin to make assumptions based on previous batter-pitcher match ups. Granted, if Helton was hitting .600 in 5 at-bats, yeah, it’s meaningless, but if it was over 20 at bats (not a whole lot, but…), I still say it means something. But maybe that’s because I haven’t read “The Book.”
Does anyone know Helton’s career numbers vs. Embree and Hoffman or where we can find out?
Phils down 5-2 in 9th.
September 6, 2006 at 7:11 pm
20 at-bats is also nothing. For instance, when looking wOBA one’s season line should be regressed by adding 220 PA of average wOBA (that’s average relative to position, playing time, etc, not average average).
September 6, 2006 at 7:13 pm
Helton has hit .308/.400/.769 against Embree over a handful of PA. But again, that has no predictive value.
September 6, 2006 at 7:15 pm
It’s annoying how ESPN and others frequently leave out ROE, HBP & PA. Also that they don’t differentiate between UBB & IBB is just plain unhelpful.
September 6, 2006 at 7:16 pm
Batting three LHB in a row is just wrong.
September 6, 2006 at 7:18 pm
That was some jump DR got there.
September 6, 2006 at 7:25 pm
I HATE the hit & run.
September 6, 2006 at 7:26 pm
The first two strikes of the PA were swinging strikes. That would suggest at least to me that there’s a pretty decent chance that Piazza would swing and miss a third time. That said, I hate the hit & run regardless of if it’s a bad decision or a horrible one.
September 6, 2006 at 7:26 pm
How many strike em out, throw em out DPs is that this year? I can think of at least 3. That burns me up more than any other play, I’d rather see a GIDP than that.
September 6, 2006 at 7:28 pm
The hit & run is just a bad call.
September 6, 2006 at 7:29 pm
Well, Padre base-stealers have only been thrown out 26 times. I suppose one could look up all 26 and see if they were K/CS DPs.
September 6, 2006 at 7:31 pm
Hit and run has it’s uses but it just seems like the risk/reward in that situation is not good. I mean, if Piazza gets a hit at least one guy is going to score anyway. Just don’t hit and run with two strikes because it destroys the inning.
September 6, 2006 at 7:34 pm
There was one on July 7.
September 6, 2006 at 7:36 pm
I’d keep looking but ESPN.com is destroying my will to live.
September 6, 2006 at 7:36 pm
I agree with all of you regarding the hit and run…but consider this is a rookie catcher playing for the Rockies…
September 6, 2006 at 7:37 pm
Hit submit too soon…so…with a rookie catcher playing..it’s worth taking some chances…
Re: 19..why are you losing you will to live?
September 6, 2006 at 7:38 pm
I’m curious what that has to do with anything. Did he not play catcher in the minors?
September 6, 2006 at 7:38 pm
Heh, it was a rhetorical question. I didn’t expect anyone to actually look it up. I know we had some last year too. I’m pretty sure Klesko was picked off first on the Sut move twice last year too.
September 6, 2006 at 7:38 pm
Featured on BuzzTracker…
…
September 6, 2006 at 7:39 pm
Some of the pages on ESPN.com load a bit too slowly.
September 6, 2006 at 7:41 pm
re: 2
It’s the first no-hitter since Randy Johnson’s perfect game on May 18, 2004 — the longest no-hitter drought of the Post-War Era — one more characteristic of the most extreme hitters era in baseball history (1994-present).
The front of ESPN.com currently says that no-hitter was in 2002, but that’s incorrect.
September 6, 2006 at 7:46 pm
re:22.. that’s a good point..but the Rockies announcers made big deal out of it and suggested that the Padres should run on him..
September 6, 2006 at 7:47 pm
re: Richard
I’m glad you’re active tonight, but I’m worried about your pitch count.
September 6, 2006 at 7:51 pm
Dave Roberts has 41 stolen bases, the most by a Padres player since Bip Roberts 46 in 1990. Even with tonight’s caught stealing, Roberts’ SB percentage is .891.
In 1980, Jerry Mumphrey was 52-for-57 (.912) for the Padres.
September 6, 2006 at 7:54 pm
Fair point Kevin. I’ll probably be gone by the fifth inning.
September 6, 2006 at 7:54 pm
DR triples and he could have gone in standing.
September 6, 2006 at 7:55 pm
It’s nice to see Dave playing this far over his head for us. He’s surely in line for a huge (over)payday.
September 6, 2006 at 7:59 pm
Roberts had 12 triples this season, the most by a Padres player since Tony Gwynn had 13 in 1987.
September 6, 2006 at 7:59 pm
Roberts has 12 triples this season, the most by a Padres player since Tony Gwynn’s 13 in 1987.
September 6, 2006 at 7:59 pm
Good job by Giles to keep that a single.
September 6, 2006 at 8:00 pm
Sorry about the double post.
September 6, 2006 at 8:00 pm
It’s hard for me to imagine Gwynn hitting 13 triples, but I wasn’t really following baseball that closely when I was 2.
September 6, 2006 at 8:03 pm
Only 50% GB for Clay tonight. It’s the 37.5% LD that’s bothering me.
September 6, 2006 at 8:03 pm
Gwynn was 27 that season and also had a career-high 56 stolen bases.
September 6, 2006 at 8:04 pm
55.6% and 33.3% after that. That 33.3% is still high…
September 6, 2006 at 8:07 pm
5 pitches?
September 6, 2006 at 8:08 pm
Six pitches…
September 6, 2006 at 8:09 pm
I don’t know if the Padres are about to turn in one of them, but we’re seeing a lot of low-hit games because it’s late in the season, and teams are tired. Sanchez had a no-no tonight, and Randy Johnson took one late into the game.
September 6, 2006 at 8:14 pm
63.6% GB
September 6, 2006 at 8:14 pm
13.2 P/IP
September 6, 2006 at 8:16 pm
Richard..you are closing in on your pitch count..
September 6, 2006 at 8:17 pm
7th damn strikeout of the night for Jennings.
September 6, 2006 at 8:18 pm
Mr. TTO with a non-TTO.
September 6, 2006 at 8:22 pm
*tips cap* Goodnight everyone.
September 6, 2006 at 8:27 pm
Are you really done?
September 6, 2006 at 8:45 pm
hensleys pitching a great game.. hopefuly the offense can get him the w
September 6, 2006 at 8:52 pm
Serious pitchers’ duel here. Would be nice to see the Pads’ hitters work the count some more - Jennings’ pitch count isn’t nearly as high as Hensley’s.
September 6, 2006 at 8:54 pm
Well, Hensley had pitched 7 innings while Jennings had pitched only 6.
September 6, 2006 at 8:54 pm
And Gonzalez works a full count and doubles into the right field corner. Bring him home - one run might be enough…
Like Barfield as a PR for Gonzalez. Gotta love the big September bench.
September 6, 2006 at 8:55 pm
Now, that was a risky decision.
September 6, 2006 at 8:56 pm
Speaking of that huge bench, we have to have a better hitter than Blum sitting on it, right?
September 6, 2006 at 8:59 pm
Letting a guy like Blum bat in such a high leverage situation is beyond me.
September 6, 2006 at 9:00 pm
When I say “a guy like Blum,” I mean “a guy who sucks at hitting the baseball.”
September 6, 2006 at 9:00 pm
I Bet GY is tearing his hair out somewhere in Petco…
September 6, 2006 at 9:02 pm
I refuse to believe that we couldn’t find a manager smart enough to pinch hit for Blum if we tried to.
September 6, 2006 at 9:03 pm
Well, that was a letdown. Wish they could have picked up a run for Hensley.
September 6, 2006 at 9:09 pm
Nice to see a solid performance by Linebrink.
September 6, 2006 at 9:14 pm
And we get to see why you never bat three LHB in a row.
September 6, 2006 at 9:16 pm
Apparently none of Bochy’s strengths involve making baseball-related decisions.
September 6, 2006 at 9:24 pm
I wonder how many managers (given a September-sized bench) would lift one of their best players for a pinch runner, but would then refuse to lift one of their worst players for a pinch-hitter in the same inning.
September 6, 2006 at 9:25 pm
A change up way up in the zone swung under… That was something.
September 6, 2006 at 9:27 pm
Letting Iannetta hit here is interesting.
September 6, 2006 at 9:28 pm
Wow.
September 6, 2006 at 9:30 pm
Will Trevor throw the change 3-2?
September 6, 2006 at 9:30 pm
Didn’t need to. That was a HUGE at bat.
September 6, 2006 at 9:33 pm
That was CLUTCH!
September 6, 2006 at 9:34 pm
Hoffman struck out the side. Wow.
September 6, 2006 at 9:34 pm
wow. just watching on gameday, that was very improbable. but I’m guessing he got the young Colorado players off balance with the change.
September 6, 2006 at 9:34 pm
Wow. Just wow. They have to win after that.
September 6, 2006 at 9:35 pm
He was throwing the “fastball” a lot.
September 6, 2006 at 9:35 pm
Kevin, I did leave after five innings, but it was to take a phone call.
September 6, 2006 at 9:36 pm
Corpas is a step down from Affeldt, at least.
September 6, 2006 at 9:37 pm
The great thing about the change is you don’t have tho throw it a lot. Just enough to let the hitter know you’ll throw it in any count. I’m really glad the Padres are teaching it to all their minor league pitchers.
September 6, 2006 at 9:38 pm
He looked pretty damn good against Piazza, though.
September 6, 2006 at 9:39 pm
Good point, Anthony.
September 6, 2006 at 9:40 pm
I still can’t believe Blum was allowed to hit for himself…
September 6, 2006 at 9:42 pm
I wonder if Meredith is available in the event that this game goes into extra innings.
September 6, 2006 at 9:42 pm
This has been a pretty great PA by Cameron so far.
September 6, 2006 at 9:45 pm
Serious at-bat by Cameron, started 0-2, then fouled one off, then fought his way to a walk.
September 6, 2006 at 9:46 pm
Well, that was no good.
September 6, 2006 at 9:46 pm
Then Branyan swings at the first pitch.
September 6, 2006 at 9:48 pm
Embree pitching would seem to suggest that Meredith is unavailable.
September 6, 2006 at 9:53 pm
I think Meredith was up in the pen earlier
September 6, 2006 at 9:54 pm
Here he comes
September 6, 2006 at 9:56 pm
Where did that miss?
September 6, 2006 at 9:58 pm
Bard!
September 6, 2006 at 9:59 pm
Again: Where did that miss?
September 6, 2006 at 9:59 pm
Meredith is a MACHINE.
September 6, 2006 at 9:59 pm
I propose a new nickname:
The Claw Hammer!
September 6, 2006 at 10:00 pm
Here is a new page:
http://www.padresnation.com/pl.....edith.html
September 6, 2006 at 10:00 pm
Seconded. Now all we need to do is get MattyV to read Ducksnorts tonight and start using “Claw Hammer” on the air.
September 6, 2006 at 10:01 pm
Get Blum out of there.
September 6, 2006 at 10:01 pm
Geoff Blum is still being allowed to hit for himself.
September 6, 2006 at 10:02 pm
Nice page Kevin. Love that picture.
Let’s end this thing and get another W for the Claw Hammer.
September 6, 2006 at 10:04 pm
Crap.
September 6, 2006 at 10:09 pm
Late to the scene, been watching on tape delay and just caught up (I don’t come here when I’m a few minutes behind) & Richard, wow, you’re in rare form.
You’re right about Blum though, when he swings early, it goes for a GB, when decides to wait, he watches the tastiest pitch of the AB go through the zone. I’d guess he decides to swing or not well before he sees the pitch.
How’s this for future Padres’ manager: Larry Derker?
September 6, 2006 at 10:09 pm
Meredith has the Padres rookie record for scoreless innings now.