I kind of got carried away this morning. Scary thing is, I haven’t even had my first cup of coffee yet. Enjoy…
- It’s Down To This … (Hardball Times). John Brattain examines the NL West Wild Card race and likes the Padres’ chances, offering this nugget: “If the bats suddenly become hot they’ll have a legitimate shot at a World Series appearance.” Shhh, we can’t sneak up on anyone if people start paying attention.
- Labor Day is welcome sign for leaders (MLB.com). Since 1995, 79% of teams leading their division or the Wild Card race at Labor Day have reached the playoffs. [via Padres Run Down]
- Humble Hoffman eyes playoffs as much as saves record (Yahoo!). This story isn’t getting much coverage because it doesn’t center around Mariano Rivera, but it’s still awesome. And it’s even better that Trevor is saving games that matter.
- Meredith continues his stellar streak (North County Times). Cla Meredith’s scoreless innings streak is at 29. One more inning and he ties Randy Jones for the all-time Padres record. Thank you, Mr. Mirabelli.
- Williams’ advice kept Park off the mound (North County Times). I really hope Chan Ho Park is okay. His attitude is great, and you just hope his health keeps improving.
- In the comments from Monday’s IGD, Sam points us to a couple of articles (at Japan Baseball Daily and the San Diego Union-Tribune) indicating that the Padres could be looking at Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura for the 2007 season.
- In those same comments, LaMar gives us the heads-up on a cool article at USA Today focusing on the relationship between Padres manager Bruce Bochy and general manager Kevin Towers.
- Peter Friberg breaks down the upcoming series against the Giants and, as always, provides a detailed look at the Padres’ farm system.
- Watching a baseball game is like watching a tourist play blackjack (The Book). A thoughtful, if somewhat condescending, look at the types of strategical errors made in baseball games. Good discussion in the comments as well. [via Baseball Graphs]
- In the comments from Thursday’s Hall of Fame Meetup thread, Anthony tips us off to BaseballRace.com, where creator Christopher J. Falvey has developed “an online application that allows you to view any Major League Baseball season, split by league or division (even wild card races), as an animated, date-by-date race between the various teams you choose.” It’s pretty sweet.
- The Magic 3000 – and I’m Not Talking Hits (Baseball Musings). David Pinto notes a strong correlation between hitters who have 3000 R + RBI and those who are in the Hall of Fame.
- Vasgersian plugs Ducksnorts and Gaslamp Ball (Gaslamp Ball). In case you missed it, here’s Channel 4’s Matt Vasgersian giving a little love to the bloggers during Tuesday night’s telecast. Once again, much appreciated.
That’s all for now. If you’d like an invite to the Ducksnorts Hall of Fame Trip discussion group, drop me a line and I’ll hook you up. Otherwise, be here for the IGD at 6 p.m. Go Padres!
49 Comments
” Jake Peavy starts the 7:15 p.m. PT opener, and he’ll try to keep the Friars on the heels of the NL West-leading Dodgers.”
From Padres.com, it’s the story teaser when Jake’s pic is shown on the slide-show….
However, when (not if) the Mets beat the Dodgers again tonight, Jake will be gunning for the Division lead, not “try[ing] to keep the Friars on the heels…” of the Dodgers…
1st place by the end of the day!
I just heard Bochy on XX saying he and everyone else in the front office was disappointed in the USA Today article. He said there is no controversy and it’s unfortunate that people perceive the front office as anything other than all of them being on the same page. Bochy actually sounded angry about the article.
“Ducksnorts is a pretty good blog….” Pretty good? Has Matty V ever heard of Dan Rather? Or the current rage against the ABC movie Path to 911. Pretty good, need.
Kidding of course, Matty V is a pretty broacaster, er pretty good broadcaster.
Yanks at Petco next June. I’d like to catch that.
I don’t know this may be to dorky but lets take a poll of if you think KT or Boch will be in SD next year.
Boch – No (go Cubies)
KT – Yes (at a reduced roll)
Steve – I think it’s going to be the opposite … I think KT’s more likely to be out as GM than Bochy is to be out as Manager …
Also, I think you’ve muddied the waters with your “vote” … well, OK, now I see you’re just asking about “in SD” … you’re saying he’ll be out of GM roll but still “in SD” (ie. still working for Padres just not as GM) … I don’t know / don’t care about “in SD” … I’m agreeing with you about him being at risk for being GM next year …
In other words, I think if you ranked all the GMs and the Managers, KT’d be lower on the list of GMs than Bochy is on list of Managers … so we’d be more likely to improve by replacing KT … and a big part of why I think that is that I think that Depo might be a better GM than KT …
#6, put me down that both Boch and KT are in San Diego next year, same titles, same capacities.
I like KT, but I’d be much sorrier to see Boch go. I think he’s a solid manager.
I’d say KT no. Especially considering the fact that he interviewed with the DBacks.
Boch, Yes.
Steve — if you want a new manager with the Cubs, you should be rooting for Girardi to get fired. That’s your perfect fit right there.
I haven’t agreed with everything Kevin Towers has done, but I think he’s the perfect guy for the job. Unlike A.J. Smith, he’s a people person and he has good relations with many general managers in baseball. On the flip side, he’s also very candid and is not afraid to tell it like it is. I have become even more supportive of KT after participating in the Baseball Prospectus pizza feeds at Petco in the past, I could listen to him talk for hours on hours about random baseball topics.
KT doesn’t have to be the most brilliant mind in baseball to be the GM, he has the powerhouse front office team in Alderson, Fuson, DePodesta, Gayton to help him make the most informed decisions.
Explaining my comments in #8. From everything I’ve read, anyone who has worked for SA has nothing but good things to say about him. I guess I take him at his word that he is happy with the organizational team he has.
The strike against that belief is KT interviewing with the DBacks. However, that was just after SA was hired and I think that things have settled into their new reality since then. I also think that was KT’s call — not SA’s. If you believe the things others say about SA, then the only thing that would push KT out the door is his own ego, not SA’s. However, anyone that refers to himself as the “Sludge Master” and has worked with the minimal money that KT has, likely has an ego that can accept SA, DePo, Fuson’s input. Especially if it helps us field a winning team. (All told, I think KT’s moves this last year have bettered the team while turning over 50% of last year’s roster.)
As for Boch, I still think he gets the most out of what he has. The player’s like him and like playing for him. The reputation that I’ve heard from players outside the organization is that San Diego is a place they would all like to play (assuming the money is close). I think Bochy protects his turf and wants to make his own decisions on who he plays, given the players he’s got. But, I think that is something that would be acceptable to SA, rather than grounds for termination.
OT, sort of. Here’s a link to an SI.com piece about Bochy’s enormous head. I laughed out loud more than once.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/franz_lidz/09/06/franz/index.html
They both stay. After all, we’re headed for yet another 85-or-so win season. Who wouldn’t be thrilled with that?
Good job on that link, Stu. Really funny stuff.
Leucadia & LaMar,
I agree with both of you. I think they will stay and should (for this year). While neither of them are perfect, you have to look at what they had to work with the past 5 years (not much). Some of that was KT’s on doing, but at the time, most of those signings looked pretty good. Getting the team to scrape buy last year and this year until the bad contract’s are gone was not an easy feat. After next year, though, it will be be win it all or your both out! (not my choice, but what I think SA will do)
Padres ranked #7 Team in MLB and #2 in NL according to Espn
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/powerranking?week=24
SI’s John Donovan ranks the Pads as the #1 rotation among NL playoff contenders:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/john_donovan/09/08/rotations.playoffs/1.html
That’s what I’m talkin’ bout!!
I e-mailed John Brattain (the guy who wrote the HardballTimes.com article Geoff linked to) and he responded, “As I alluded to in my column, the Padres pitching is kind of scary this year and wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the Fall Classic.”
Assuming we do get into the playoffs (and I think we will) we could be a very dangerous team.
How much fun would it be to listen to all the east coasters wine if by some miracle it was the Padres vs the A’s in the World Series?
I won’t be holding my breath though …
Nick Re: #9 I never said I wanted boch to go, and for that matter go to the cubs I was just saying that I think he will end up chi town because the cubs wanted him before thet got Baker and the pads would not let Boch go.
Peronsaly I would like to see boch move on, I think he is a good manager but its time for the pads to turn a new page and get some fresh blood in there, I would love to see alan trammel in a padre uni.
We have just as good a chance as anyone I think. Excellent pitching and defense will keep the games close and I like our bullpen in close games. We also have some real weapons on the basepaths in Roberts, Barfield and Cameron. I’d feel a lot better if Khalil can get healthy but that sounds unlikely.
re: 20 … Steve – what is on Trammel’s resume that makes you think the Padres would be better with him as Manager?
well the team that he developed has the best record in the majors at the moment.
Im not saying boch is a bad manager I just think after 13 years the pads need to make a change, plus his style does not mesh with Aldersons style.
I know last week I was pissed about KT and his D. Wells trade. That said I still don’t like the trade but maybe it has pumped some life into the players and it’s begining to look like the Playoffs are possible if we can keep playing decent ball. I don’t think that you can really justify getting rid of a manager or a gm after two playoff seasons in a row. Maybe if we get swept again but that might still be hard. If Moores has stuck with them through all the losing seasons then I can’e see them leaving after 2 “winning” seaons.
I am also kinda curious to see what KT does with all the money he will have in the off-season. I read somewhere where KT said he has never had anything close to $30 Million and it’s usually in the single digits so I wonder how well he is going to use his resources.
#23: Nothing against Tram, and I think he got somewhat of a raw deal in Detroit, but the talent was maximized under Leyland — not Tram. Ex-coaches point to the fact that they developed the talent. Current coaches are “Manager of the Year” candidates, whether that’s fair or not.
Good point LaMar
25: Yeah, I don’t see where Trammell developed the Tigers. He didn’t abuse Bonderman, which is important. He didn’t really have a chance to abuse Verlander. He did play Nook Logan over Graderson, which can’t really be called development. Irod, Ordonez, Guillen, they were basically developed before they became Tigers. Kenny Rogers was developed 15 years ago.
I’m not sure Leland has done anything that Trammell couldn’t have done, though. The Tigers acquired lots of talent and that talent has produced.
Speaking of the Wells trade…
Kottaras: 2-4; HR (1), 2 R, 2 RBI, BB, SO
If you like what you see above, I do this nightly on an extended format (though with the regular seasons completed, I’m doing less of it for now) check out my ‘blog…
Perhaps a silly question: When is a prospect no longer a prospect (and I mean from the good perspective as in he is on a major league roster)? I see so many major leaguers (rookies) who still show up on prospect lists. Do they have to wait a specific amount of time up in the show such as when the “rookie” status is gone? For instance, Anibal Sanchez is still listed in MiLB’s prospect list (#18) and it looks like he is in the show to stay. Same with Troy Tulowitski (#14).
Playoff Report … we’ve got a *money* pitcher down at LoA Ft Wayne … his name is Wade LeBlanc … http://tinyurl.com/f9lgu … 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K’s to shutdown the best team in the league (record wise)!
Add in a couple nice hitters (Wil Venable and David Freese) and you’ve got a playoff game victory!
Final game of the series it tonight!
The “oh, what might have been” begins today … http://tinyurl.com/kwgym …
Kottaras pays dividends for Sea Dogs
Pickup in Wells trade homers in first game to even series with Thunder
Go George!
29: Technically, there are few things, 1. how long has a player been on the roster, BA and other prospect mavens ignore this (BA ranked Mauer #1 after he lost the year to injury) and 2. once a hitter has 130 AB in a season, he is no longer a “rookie” or for a pitcher; 50 IP…
On a different version of the same topic, I frequently don’t write about the successes of our AA team because there weren’t guys who will be contributers at the MLB level on the team. When a 26 yr old in AA is batting .250 w/ 12 HR and a 55/90 BB/SO ratio, he’s not a prospect whether he’s been in the majors or not…
Up I-5 last night, the Storm went down 3-2 … http://tinyurl.com/kzefo … a coupla errors did ‘em in … HR by Hundley, good to see him finish the season strong!
They play final game of their series tonight … 7:05pm at The Diamond … go! … get warmed up for postseason ball
Pete, So, Anibal Sanchez should technically not be a propsect anymore, right? Kinda makes prospect lists very hard to follow if there are names you are not familar with taking up space high on list.
By the way Peter, thanks for the explanation
Oops, PF … didn’t notice you posting updates here … THANKS for your RunDowns!!!
re: 29 … the definition of “prospect” is whatever you (or any writer / speaker) want it to be … it’s not an official term! OTOH, “rookie” has a very specific meaning … each player has 1 and only 1 “rookie” season.
The reason you still see Sanchez on “prospect lists” is because they were written a while ago … I’m pretty sure you won’t see him on any future prospect lists … he’s a big leaguer now
The reason you still see Tulowitzki on prospect lists is that he’s still a minor leaguer … he will still be a rookie next year … and so he’ll be HIGH on this off-season’s “prospect lists” …
Thanks Lynch
re: 36 … let me clarify my comment on Tulowitzki … obviously he’s in the big leagues now … OK, some of you may not think the Rockies are a big league team, but that’s just an opinion
, the fact is they are part of MLB … so Troy is in the major leagues … it’s just that time spent in the big leagues during the time of September roster expansion counts different than during the first 5 months …
I was just trying to point out that Tulo played a full minor league season whereas Sanchez did not … Tulo will still be considered a “prospect” by all the “major publications” … most of them align their off-season prospect lists with “rookie status” … and Troy will certainly still have his … in fact, with a bad spring training, he may not make the Rox next Opening Day … and while that’s technically true of Sanchez (and all players, for that matter), it’s seems far less likely for Sanchez than for Tulo …
I’ve said too much, haven’t I …
This study seemed to suggest that pitching, defense, and speed are more important in the playoffs. Highly inconclusive, but quite interesting.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/so-billy-what-does-work-in-the-playoffs/
re: 39 … Vinny Kumar, if you’re out there, nice study!!! Vinny was at the BP Pizza Feed this summer … he’s a good analyst and writer! More, more!
Eric … thanks for the link.
This is a good “I told ya so” … http://tinyurl.com/j2gxm …
Portland a resource of power for Padres
Recent callups key members of lethal Triple-A offense
Link compliments of Whitney at pdxbeavers.com … hmmm, it’s not every day you see “lethal” and “offense” and “Padres” in the same sentence/headline …
btw…I read the Hardball Times article about the NL wild card race, and found an error (the author has SD playing LA 4 times, but LA playing SD only 3 times). If this were fixed, his predictions would change ever-so-slightly, giving SD a projected 86-76 record, and LA an 85-77 record, keeping the NL West crown in SD.
Dodger 3 nothing over the Mets in the 5th! Go Mets!
Nomar just cracked a solo HR, 4-0. Glavine got chased early.
re: 42 … Nice job, smoker!
PM,
Not Glavine, it was John Maine.
5-0 Dodgers at the end of 6
My predictions:
*Bochy and KT both back.
*Ducksnorters who complained about always having to wait until next year and then complained about trading away a slightly above- average hitting catcher are livid when KT announces he’s reacquired Kottaras and given Wells back to the Sox, deciding that it is better to wait another three or four years for a division title. Ducksnorters immediately begin calling for KT’s head and complaining that Kottaras is undersized, his defensive skills marginal, and that Wells could have gotten us to the playoffs.
*Hands up right now for all those who would trade the Pads lineup (the 25-man roster) for the Oakland A’s.