IGD: Padres @ Mets (9 Aug 06)

first pitch: 4:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Clay Hensley (7-8, 4.33 ERA) vs Pedro Martinez (8-4, 3.48 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets

I’m happy for Mike Piazza that he received such a warm welcome in his first game at Shea Stadium since leaving the Mets, but I think he and I would prefer a win. The Padres go up against Pedro Martinez on Wednesday. Current Pads are hitting .286/.318/.582 against Martinez in 158 at-bats. Piazza (.348/.375/.913 in 23 AB) and Dave Roberts (.444/.500/1.000 in 9 AB) have done the most damage among active players. The rehabbing Ryan Klesko (.344/.400/.813 in 32 AB) owns Martinez, but that doesn’t do any good.

The Dodgers and their stretch-run acquisitions have reeled off 11 straight wins and are just a half-game back of the Padres. It’s the second week of August — time to start playing with some sense of urgency. Go Pads!

Ducksnorts Book?

Tough loss Tuesday afternoon. What are you gonna do? That Mets bullpen is mighty tough.

I know at least one of the Ducksnorts contingent (Ryguy) was out at Shea cheering on the Padres. Anyone going to other games during the series? Y’all should hook up and take some photos.

Not that I’m telling you what to do, of course. ;-)

And while I’m thinking of it, this is a good time to pimp Frappr. That may sound kinky, but it’s just a way to let fellow Ducksnorters know where you are, geographically speaking.

We’re in more places than you might expect, so in theory, Ducksnorts meetups should be possible just about anywhere. If you’re not on the map already, feel free to add yourself.

Ahem, You Said Something About a Book?

Okay, now to the point of today’s entry. I need your help. I recently read something over at Seth Godin’s blog that inspired me. With the 10-year anniversary of Ducksnorts coming up in about a year (September 6, 2007, but who’s counting?), I thought it might be cool to write a Ducksnorts book. This is an idea that’s been swirling around in my head for a while, and I think I’d like to act on it.

Like I said, though, I need your help. Here are two questions we have to answer before moving forward:

  1. Why would you read a Ducksnorts book?
  2. Why would I write a Ducksnorts book?

For me, “it might be cool” isn’t a compelling enough reason to actually write a book. It’s a good first step, but I’d like to identify what, specifically, you and I would get out of this.

One of the reasons I started Ducksnorts was that, with a few notable exceptions, things I wanted to read about baseball just weren’t being written (this is also why I create my own music, but that’s another story). After 10 years of examining this stuff fairly carefully, I think I’m in good position to attempt a book. But I also recognize that there’s a lot more information available today than there was when I started, so I don’t want to waste everyone’s time and kill trees needlessly to feed an ego.

Seriously, that would suck.

So, what would you want from a Ducksnorts book? Would it be a retrospective, a collection of previously written works, perhaps with commentary? (I’ve used that format before, in the e-books Best of 2003 and Best of 2005.) Or would it be something different? I don’t know what, but I’m open to ideas.

Oh yeah, this wouldn’t be a freebie like the e-books. There’s actual cost associated with publishing a book, so whatever we come up with would need to be worth your money.

Like I said, I think I have a potentially cool idea here, but I really don’t want to waste your time and mine creating garbage. So, what should we do?

IGD: Padres @ Mets (8 Aug 06)

first pitch: 4:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Woody Williams (4-3, 3.84 ERA) vs Steve Trachsel (10-5, 5.12 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets

Confession time: I usually set up these IGDs before I go to work, and this morning I’m way behind schedule thanks to our look at the catching situation, so just pretend I said something witty or insightful here. As always, make yourselves at home and chat like crazy. Go Padres!

The Future Behind the Dish

I was working on something a bit more ambitious this morning, but it doesn’t appear to be ready — and between you and me, I’m not sure it ever will be. So instead, with the Padres in New York for three, and one of the big stories (at least from a certain city’s point of view) being the return of Mike Piazza to the Big Apple, I figured now might be a good time to start thinking about next year’s catching options.

Not that we can do anything about it, of course, but it’s always fun to play along at home. First I’ll throw out the tale of the tape, then I’ll offer my thoughts (such as they are), and then you’ll offer yours. And we’ll just keep doing that until the IGD magically appears this afternoon.

To the contenders:

Potential Padres Catchers for 2007
Name Age* Level AB BA OBP SLG
Mike Piazza 38 MLB 276 .297 .354 .525
Josh Bard 29 MLB 171 .327 .400 .515
Rob Bowen 26 MLB 65 .292 .405 .462
George Kottaras 24 AA/AAA 306 .278 .388 .464
Stats are through games of August 7, 2006, and are courtesy of ESPN and Baseball America.

*Age as of June 30, 2007.

Mike Piazza

Piazza’s offense and defense have been better than advertised this year. We were led to believe that he didn’t have much left in the tank, but an 879 OPS would indicated otherwise. We were told that he couldn’t withstand the rigors of catching and that even if he could, he was no great shakes behind the plate. But with careful usage by Bruce Bochy, himself a former big-league backstop, Piazza has held up quite well. And the defensive issues have been overblown by folks who think a catcher’s arm is the only way to judge how well he plays the position. In most other aspects, Piazza’s been just fine back there.

Piazza and the Padres have an $8M mutual option for 2007. Despite all the praise I just heaped on him in the preceding paragraph, and intending no disrespect, I don’t see how it would make sense for the Pads to exercise their option with so many other, um, options to fill the position next year. Piazza’s presence in San Diego has been tremendous, but I can’t justify bringing him back at that price.

Josh Bard

The contracts of Bard and Bowen are up at the end of the year, but I suspect neither will command a huge amount on the open market due to their limited track records. And I can’t imagine the Padres balking at a guaranteed deal with Bard, as they did with Miguel Olivo last winter. Bard’s overall game is much more polished than Olivo’s and the club seems to have confidence in Bard when he’s out there.

The downside to Bard, of course, is that there’s nothing in his minor-league background to foreshadow the offensive numbers he’s posting this year. It’s entirely possible that 2006 is a fluke and that he’ll regress to the mean. Then again, he could be another late-blooming catcher, a la Paul Lo Duca. I’m not sure what it would take for the Pads to re-sign him, and I’m not sure what I’d want to offer if I were them, but I do know I’d be pretty comfortable with him as the starter next year if Kottaras needs a little more seasoning.

Ryan Bowen

Bowen, as ever, remains intriguing. He’s relatively young and he has good plate discipline. He also can drive the ball on occasion. If only he could play third base.

But I digress.

The main issue with Bowen is that he’s largely untested. With Bard serving as Piazza’s primary backup this year, Bowen has been used mostly as Piazza’s designated pinch-runner/defensive replacement in late innings of games. Bowen has put up some nice numbers in limited time, but there’s a lot we don’t know about him. I’d love to see him come back next year, but it seems to me he’s at a point in his career where testing the waters might not be such a bad idea. He’s no worse an option for a big-league team that needs a catcher than Olivo was this past off-season.

George Kottaras

What can we say about Kottaras that hasn’t been said already? Offensively, he doesn’t have much more to prove in the minors. He controls the strike zone and drives the ball into the gaps, which is a nice combination. Defensively, by most accounts Kottaras isn’t quite there yet, and there are concerns about his size. He’s only played 14 games above Double-A, and he’s not exactly old, so there shouldn’t be any great hurry to bring him to the big club. That said, if all of the other options don’t work out, Kottaras probably could hold his own if needed. I’d prefer to see him back at Triple-A, at least for a while, but he’s close.

I guess when all is said and done, I’d want Bard as the starter in 2007, with Bowen (or someone else if Bowen walks) as backup. Stick Kottaras back at Portland to start the year, and if anything happens to Bard, bring up the kid and see what he can do.

Whatever the future holds, it’s a good situation to be in — and a far cry from the days of Wiki Gonzalez, Gary Bennett, et al.

That leaves us with one open question: What would you do?

Where Do Padres Come From?

Nice win Sunday afternoon against the Nationals to take the series and remain in first place by two games over the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. I still don’t understand why a guy with Jake Peavy’s stuff has to get so cute when he’s ahead in the count, but oh well.

The Padres are off Monday before embarking on a three-game series in New York against the Mets on Tuesday. While we’re waiting for that, I’d like to formally introduce the San Diego Padres Organizational Tree that we first took a sneak peek at on Friday.

In a nutshell, the organizational tree shows all current Padres big-leaguers and key minor-leaguers (Baseball America’s Top 30 prospects, top picks in the June 2006 draft, and anyone acquired in a trade), and links each of them back to their source. A simple example would be Josh Bard, who was acquired for Doug Mirabelli, who was acquired for Mark Loretta. Others, such as the Chan Ho Park and Ryan Klesko lines, are more complicated.

For each current Padres player, I identify whether he was drafted by the team, acquired via trade, or signed as a free agent. For all players (even Russ Spear, about whom I can find precious little information — this transaction dated March 9, 1995, is pretty much it), I identify which general manager is respsonsible for bringing him to San Diego. In a couple instances (Doug Brocail, Phil Plantier), a player appears twice on the tree as part of different transactions, so you see, e.g., Plantier listed as being brought here by Joe McIlvaine in the December 1992 trade with Boston, and by Kevin Towers in the January 1997 free agent signing. Also, all players who reached the big leagues are linked to their page at Baseball Reference so you can view their entire careers if you’re so inclined.

At best, this organizational tree will provide a useful resource for fans of the Padres and baseball in general. I know of a few others in existence (Will Young’s Twins org tree inspired mine, and I found trees for the Yankees and Red Sox via the Baseball Graphs Blog) and would love to see more.

At worst, this tree will serve as a reminder of the fine work the oft-maligned Randy Smith did during his tenure as GM of the Padres under extremely difficult circumstances. Smith’s contributions paved the way for the playoff teams of 1996 and 1998 under his successor, Kevin Towers. In addition to acquiring Andy Ashby and Trevor Hoffman despite having zero leverage, Smith also engineered the deal that brought cornerstones Ken Caminiti and Steve Finley to San Diego. To take nothing away from Towers or any other key figures, Smith’s role in getting the Padres back to the World Series cannot, and should not, be underestimated.

I enjoyed researching and assembling this organizational tree and, now that it’s built, I intend to keep it updated so we can continue to refer to it into the future. I hope you find some value in the tree; as always, I welcome your input — if you notice any errors, omissions, or potential enhancements, please let me know in the comments or drop me a line.

IGD: Padres vs Nationals (6 Aug 06)

first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Jake Peavy (5-11, 4.81) vs Livan Hernandez (9-8, 5.48)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets

I went to a country and western bar last night to meet some friends who had gone dancing. Wall-to-wall cowboy hats and brass belt buckles. A dance floor filled with people clapping their hands and slapping their feet to “new country” — rhythm and blues with a twang.

I just stood around and stared in awe. I had no idea such a place existed. In the movies, maybe. But real life?

It goes without saying that I don’t get out much.

I will be getting out today. Jimmy Carter’s Cafe for brunch, then down to Petco Park to watch the Padres try to take the series against the Nats and salvage a split of the homestand.

Jake Peavy will lead the charge. Peavy, whose inconsistency this season has been well documented, is coming off two solid starts in a row. Not to make excuses for the year he’s had, but here’s another indication that at least some of Peavy’s struggles are a result of bad luck:

Winning Percentage and Average Game Scores
Player Pct AGS
Chris Capuano 0.588 53.4
Brad Penny 0.688 53.4
Brett Myers 0.583 53.4
Scott Olsen 0.692 53.3
Erik Bedard 0.632 52.8
Ervin Santana 0.706 52.5
Jake Peavy 0.313 52.2
Nate Robertson 0.588 52.2
Tim Wakefield 0.467 51.7
Chien-Ming Wang 0.765 51.4
Dave Bush 0.467 51.4
Clay Hensley 0.467 51.4
Gil Meche 0.643 51
Vicente Padilla 0.611 51
Stats are through games of August 5, 2006, and are courtesy of ESPN.

I’m not trying to sugarcoat anything here — obviously, Peavy hasn’t had the kind of season we (and he) have come to expect from him. At the same time, in mainstream circles, where a pitcher is judged primarily by won-loss record, he’s probably taking more of a beating than he deserves. Not everyone can get their team to score 6+ runs a game behind them like Bedard, Santana, Wang, and Padilla.

Again, average game scores aren’t the end-all and be-all of pitching stats — far from it. But this at least gives us another frame of reference when looking at what Peavy has done this season. For as down a year as he’s having by his standards, with a little luck, he’d at least be winning games.

And from there, anything is possible. Who knows, you might even see me two-stepping.

Or not.

IGD: Padres vs Nationals (5 Aug 06)

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Mike Thompson (3-3, 4.34) vs Pedro Astacio (2-1, 5.23)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
buy tickets

After Friday night’s 6-2 loss at the hands of the Nationals, the Padres are now 26-31 at home this year. Only three teams (Braves, 22-28; Cubs, 23-31; Royals, 23-31) have a worse home record. That’s not the kind of company you want to keep if you’re trying to reach the playoffs.

The Diamondbacks lost again so they’re still a game out of first. But the Snakes, with their lack of pitching, don’t concern me nearly as much as the one team in the NL West that actually took steps to improve itself at the trade deadline — the Dodgers.

Bright spots? How about this: On May 8, Adrian Gonzalez was hitting .224/.286/.318. Since then he’s hit .337/.379/.591.

Gonzalez can’t do it alone, though. Time for the rest of the team to pick up its game. If the Padres are serious about defending their NL West title, they need to start acting like it. Now.

IGD: Padres vs Nationals (4 Aug 06)

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young (9-4, 3.57) vs Ramon Ortiz (7-9, 4.84)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets

Based on one set of splits, I was going to ask whether anyone has ever thought of moving tonight’s starter for the Nationals, Ramon Ortiz, to the bullpen. But instead I’ll use those splits to illustrate the danger of small sample sizes:

Ramon Ortiz: Better Early or Late?
Inn 2006 2005
1-3 .236/.301/.372 .337/.389/.595
4-6 .338/.385/.565 .253/.296/.431

Seriously, what kind of conclusions can you draw from that? Oh wait, I know — Chris Young is 6’10″.

Tunes: Primus, The Chills, Nick Drake, Rush, Radiohead.

Friday Links (4 Aug 06)

Is it me, or has this been a long week? I dunno, maybe it’s the heat. Or maybe I’m getting old.

Anyway, TGIF. Onto the links:


  • This time, Greene’s injury not serious (North County Times). Khalil Greene hurt his left middle finger while swinging a bat in the fourth inning of Thursday afternoon’s game against the Astros. He’s listed as “day to day.”
  • Park due for transfusion because of blood loss (North County Times). Yikes. Sounds like Chan Ho Park is going to be okay, but this is scary stuff.
  • Was 4 San Diego afraid to criticize Walker, Padres? (San Diego Union-Tribune). Jay Posner isn’t happy with the way Channel 4SD handled (or didn’t handle) the story of Todd Walker’s two errors in his Padres debut at third base Wednesday night.
  • Baseball’s Slugging-est Catcher (Baseball Crank). No surprise, it’s the “washed-up” Mike Piazza. The Crank uses 200 plate appearances as his cutoff; if you use 150, Piazza slips to #2. Right, Josh Bard jumps ahead of him.
  • Conversation with ex-Beaver Jason Bay (PDX Beavers). I love Bay’s attitude about being bounced around from organization to organization before finally finding a home in Pittsburgh: “I’m not trying to prove anybody wrong; I thank them for giving me a chance to go somewhere and do better.” Good stuff, as always, from Jonathan and the folks at PDX Beavers.
  • Cirillo suggests balls at Coors Field waterlogged (ESPN). Because tin-foil hats are cool.
  • Projection Roundtable (Hardball Times). Forecasting future performance in baseball players can be tricky business. David Gassko moderates a discussion among several folks who attempt to do just that, as they offer insights into some of the issues and challenges they face. This is the opener in a five-part series. Unfortunately the other four parts aren’t linked, but you can search for them.
  • Hometown? (Washington Times). Regular reader and commenter Kevin Brewer has written an article about MLB’s “Hometown Heroes” promotion which, among other things, allows fans in D.C. to vote for Brian Schneider and Livan Hernandez but not Walter Johnson or Frank Howard.
  • Penny Wise, Dollar Foolish: Overpaid, Underpaid Players (Athlon Sports). Bargains on the Padres are Adrian Gonzalez and Trevor Hoffman. Not so much would be Park and Ryan Klesko. I think you probably could add Greene and Josh Barfield to the list of bargains.
  • Les Paul & Mary Ford – At Home With…. (YouTube). I confess, I’m hooked on YouTube. Someone has posted a series of TV bits from the ’50s featuring the legendary Les Paul on guitar. I never get tired of this stuff.

Shameless Plugs

  • San Diego Padres Organizational Tree. Based on a suggestion from reader Coronado Mike, I’ve whipped together a little something for us. It’s in beta, so any corrections, enhancement ideas, and general kibbitzing are welcome and appreciated. Once we’ve got this thing looking like we want, I’ll display it more prominently so folks can use and enjoy.
  • Also, as a reminder, we’ve got a Ducksnorts meetup scheduled for Sunday, August 20 (details). We have about a half-dozen or so folks confirmed right now. Leave a comment or drop me a line if you’re interested.

That’s all for now; more as it happens.

IGD: Padres vs Astros (3 Aug 06)

first pitch: 12:35 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Clay Hensley (6-8, 4.46 ERA) vs Matt Albers (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets

I guess now we know why last year Bruce Bochy wouldn’t stick a guy at third who hadn’t played the position in a while. Todd Walker went 1-for-3 at the plate in his first Padres start, and 2-for-4 in the field. Just a guess here, but I’m thinking we already had guys in the organization who could do that.

On the bright side, second baseman Josh Barfield was named NL Rookie of the Month for July. Barfield hit .400/.435/.590 during the month and was second in the NL (to Philadelphia’s Chase Utley) in hits with 40. Congratulations!

Afternoon game today. Padres try to avoid the sweep against the Astros and potentially falling back out of first place.