IGD: Padres vs Giants (15 Aug 06)

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young (9-5, 3.84 ERA) vs Matt Morris (8-10, 4.75 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
buy tickets

Time to play good news, bad news.

Good news: Chris Young induces a lot of fly balls.
Bad news: Many of those fly balls leave the yard at home.

Good news: The Padres are a game better than they were through 118 games last year.
Bad news: The Dodgers aren’t messing around — they had an opportunity to play this hand and they jumped all over it.

Good news: Despite themselves, the Padres are only a game back in the wild card chase.
Bad news: The Reds — the one team that helped itself even less than the Padres at the deadline — are leading the pack.

Does Barfield Remind You of Anyone?

Back before the season started, when we were waiting to see whether Josh Barfield would win the second base job, we looked at Barfield’s MLEs and settled on Arizona’s Orlando Hudson as a comparable player (start at this comment and work your way down for a more in-depth discussion). Now that we’ve got 4 1/2 months of data to work with, I thought we might revisit that comp and see if it’s holding water.

To the numbers:

Josh Barfield vs Orlando Hudson — First Full Season
Player Year Age AB BA OBP SLG ISO XBH/H AB/HR BB/PA
Barfield 2005 23 407 .283 .321 .420 .137 .304 45.2 .053
Hudson 2003 25 474 .268 .328 .395 .127 .283 52.7 .075
Stats are through games of August 14, 2006, and are courtesy of ESPN.

Not bad. Barfield is hitting for a little better batting average and a shade more power, but not drawing as many walks as Hudson did. Defensively, Hudson is on another planet (his range factor that season was 5.84; Barfield’s this year is 4.77, which is in the lower half among big-league second basemen), but on the offensive side, there’s not a lot separating these two.

Actually, there is one thing: age. We may have underestimated Barfield’s upside. The season he’s having right now is the one I was expecting in 2007 or 2008.

Okay, how about age 23 comps? An extremely unscientific process reveals the following names (note that these are unadjusted numbers, so it’s possible that some aren’t really all that comparable):

  • Roberto Alomar, 1991: .295/.354/.436
  • Craig Biggio, 1989: .257/.336/.402
  • Royce Clayton, 1993: .282/.331/.372
  • Wil Cordero, 1995: .286/.341/.420
  • Travis Fryman, 1992: .266/.316/.416
  • Barry Larkin, 1987: .244/.306/.371
  • Edgar Renteria, 1999: .275/.334/.400
  • Jimmy Rollins, 2003: .245/.306/.380
  • Ryne Sandberg, 1983: .261/.316/.351
  • Garry Templeton, 1979: .314/.331/.458
  • Robin Yount, 1979: .267/.308/.371

This is a nice list (hello, Mr. Clayton; what are you doing here?), but one thing I’ve learned when doing stuff like this in the past is that you end up finding a lot of guys who experienced what I call “freakish development.” In other words, we don’t want to get carried away just because Alomar, Biggio, Larkin, Sandberg, and Yount show up on this list. Most players don’t follow their path — if they did, the Hall of Fame would be a lot more crowded or have different standards.

Back to Barfield, I’m not sure how comfortable I am with any of the above names. Renteria and Rollins (never mind the batting average) are probably the closest, if you’re okay with the fact that they play shortstop. They’re not ideal comps, but at this point they seem more reasonable to me than Hudson.

IGD: Padres vs Giants (14 Aug 06)

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Clay Hensley (7-9, 4.41 ERA) vs Brad Hennessey (4-2, 2.93 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets

If you’re reading this sentence, it means I ran out of time this morning to put something more profound here. Go Padres!

Weekend Wrapup

Beautiful weekend here in San Diego. If you’re ever looking for a good way to kill a few hours and stretch your legs, you could do worse than walk from Hospitality Point to Pacific Beach (map shows Mission Blvd.; you’ll be on Bayside Walk). Stop at Karinya Thai for some Rahd Prig. Then cut across to Cass St. and walk south till you hit water. Hang a left and continue along the bay until you reach the Ingraham St. bridge. Climb up the stairs and head south on Ingraham, across a couple more bridges, until you eventually get back to where you started. It’s about 8 1/4 miles, but man, what a great way to spend a summer afternoon.

Aflac All-American Baseball Classic

Another great way to spend a summer afternoon is hanging out at Tony Gwynn Stadium for the Aflac All-American Baseball Classic on Saturday. Dex was working the event and hooked us up (okay, everyone who had a ticket) with some goodies — baseball cards, a poster, a plush Aflac duck that drives our dogs crazy. We sat next to the mother of RHP Sam Runion, who worked the fifth inning for the East. He pitched well but was saddled with an unearned run due to some sloppy defense behind him. Sam’s mom was a bit nervous watching him pitch (I can’t begin to imagine what these athletes’ families go through), but she was real pleasant to talk to and I hope Sam has continued success in the future.

Storm vs Giants

We headed up to Elsinore for the Storm game Saturday night. I’ve posted a recap of the game and a bunch of photos at Flickr (including plenty of the rehabbing Ryan Klesko). Our attempt to take the Ortega Highway as a metaphor for the long haul failed miserably due to the fact that I-5 was a complete parking lot. After nearly an hour on the freeway, we hadn’t even gotten out of Carlsbad. As much as I liked the metaphor, I liked getting to the ballgame even better, so we cut across some side streets to SR-78 and then cruised up I-15 like we usually do. And we still got a metaphor out of the deal — something to do with adjusting on the fly.

The game was pretty sloppy. We sat behind the visitors’ dugout, which gave us a different perspective than our usual home plate vantage. Two kids in front of us were chosen for the dizzy bat race between innings. They ran smack into each other. Stupid, but hilarious. They couldn’t stop talking about it when they got back to their seats. Plus they scored In ‘N’ Out gift certificates for their efforts. Sweet!

Welcome, New Visitors

Been meaning to mention this for a while. I’ve noticed a bunch of new names in the comments over the past several weeks. Welcome! If you’re new to Ducksnorts (or even if you aren’t), here are a few items you might want to check out to get a better idea of what we’re doing:

  • About — Mission statement and FAQ.
  • Comments Policy — One of my favorite things about Ducksnorts is hearing what everyone has to say. We’re pretty good at policing ourselves (a thousand thanks!), but there are a few rules of the road that you’ll want to be aware of if you plan to participate (and I hope you do).
  • Frappr! Ducksnorts Map — See where other Ducksnorters are; add yourself to the map.
  • Archives and Greatest Hits. Ducksnorts has been around a while — be sure to check out some of the older stuff, including our guide to taco shops (does this need updating?), coverage of the last game at Qualcomm Stadium, and more.

Also, every now and then folks ask how they can support Ducksnorts. The simple answer is that if you’re reading this, you’re already doing it. However, some people want to know whether there’s anything else they can do, so I’ve come up with a few options:

  • Ducksnorts Online Store — Ducksnorts T-shirts, caps, bags, buttons, and more. My personal favorite is the “Will Play Third Base for Food” line.
  • Library — A listing of baseball books that I’ve read and for which I can personally vouch. If you buy through these links, I get a cut.
  • PayPal — Straight donation, any amount. Click on the button just below “Support” over on the right.

Again — and I can’t stress this enough — there’s never an obligation to spend anything to support Ducksnorts; I do this because I love it. But people ask, so there it is.

Meetup Status

We’ve got seven people signed up for the meetup this Sunday, August 20, at Petco Park. If you’re one of them, I’ve already contacted you about next steps. If you haven’t signed up yet but would like to, let me know by 5 p.m. PT, Wednesday, August 16. I’ll buy tickets that night (probably $15-20) and then we’ll figure out where to meet and all that good stuff.

Book Project Status

Last week I mentioned the possibility of writing a Ducksnorts book for 2007 and asked for suggestions. It seems I’m not the only one who found this idea interesting, so I guess I’m committed (or should be). I’m drawing up plans right now based on some thoughts I’ve had as well as your excellent feedback.

In the interest of not boring the entire Ducksnorts readership with details of the book project, I’ve created a Yahoo! Groups where interested parties can brainstorm without disturbing everyone else. Anyone is welcome to join us, of course — if you’d like to participate in the brainstorming process (or even just observe), drop me a line and I’ll send you an invite.

Everything Else

The good folks at MLB4U have put together a searchable list of potential free agents. Search by team or position. Includes roster status, service time, agent, age, and whether player and/or team has an option.

Finally, the Giants are in town for a four-game set starting tonight. We’ll have the IGD posted around 6 p.m. PT. If you’re going to the game, remember that because Barry Bonds is in town and Padres fans have been known to throw garbage onto the field, resulting in game delays (oh wait, that’s Giants fans — never mind), the standing room area directly beyond the left field fence most likely will be closed. No worries — you’ll just have to yell a little louder.

Whew, that’s a lot for a Monday. Yes, yes it is.

Tunes: Bel Canto, Israel Kamakawiwo’ole, Jeff Buckley, Rush, Cheap Trick, Live, Elliott Smith, Keali’i Reichel, OutKast, Kosheen, Frank Sinatra, Dead Can Dance, Neil Finn, They Might Be Giants, Elektrochemie UK, A Man Called Adam, Tragically Hip, Oceania, White Stripes, Pinback.

IGD: Padres @ Astros (13 Aug 06)

first pitch: 11:05 a.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Woody Williams (4-4, 3.89 ERA) vs Brandon Backe (3-1, 3.69 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets

Ah, Sunday morning baseball. Fire up some coffee, fry up some eggs, and kick back and relax.

Works for me. Go Padres!

Ryno Sighting

Hey, guess who I saw at the Storm game Saturday night. I’ll give you a hint:

Ryan Klesko stands at first base before a Lake Elsinore Storm game.

Ryan Klesko swings and fouls a pitch back for the Lake Elsinore Storm.

[Update: More photos now up at Flickr.]

Ryan Klesko started at first base and played five or six innings. He walked, struck out looking, and popped to shortstop in his three trips to the plate.

Strange game. Cesar Ramos started for the Storm and gave up 13 hits, but most of those were bad luck. A lot of balls were hit in just the right place or took a crazy hop. Heck, one was a sacrifice bunt where nobody covered first base.

On the other side, San Jose used four pitchers to combine on a 1-hitter. I doubt you’ll ever see an uglier 1-hitter. The Giants’ starter, Darren Sack, walked the first four batters he faced after being staked to a 4-0 lead in the first.

The fourth of those first inning walks, to DH Peter Ciofrone, came with a little extra drama. After a 3-1 pitch to Ciofrone was called a strike, Storm manager Rick Renteria (who was coaching thrid base) started barking at plate umpire Ryan Stockdale, who immediately tossed him. Renteria responded by outlining the strike zone and kicking dirt onto home plate.

Here’s where it gets fun. San Jose catcher Yamid Haad, who apparently is on a rehab assignment and demonstrating to young Giants players how to behave badly, kicks dirt back at Renteria. As you might imagine, the entire Storm bench empties and starts spilling out onto the field. They don’t make a mad charge or anything, but they’re ready. And Haad looks like he wants to take on the world. He just keeps pointing and flapping his jaws the whole time.

Eventually Haad gets run and as he’s walking back to the dugout (still yapping), he receives a shower of boos from the home crowd. Well, I can’t speak for the entire crowd, but I sure was giving him an earful. (There’s something to be said for sitting directly behind the visitors’ dugout.)

The only other downer was an injury to third baseman Chase Headley. He hurt his arm while taking a throw from right field in the first inning and had to leave the game. (You can see him in this last photo — he’s to the left of the Storm trainer, the only guy not wearing white.)

Cesar Ramos, Nick Hundley, and Ryan Klesko chat while Chase Headley is attended to by the Lake Elsinore Storm trainer.

It was good to get away and see some minor league baseball. And it was good to get home and find out the Padres had won.

IGD: Padres @ Astros (12 Aug 06)

first pitch: 4:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Jake Peavy (5-11, 4.69 ERA) vs Jason Hirsh (MLB debut)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets

This team and its horrendous pitching since the All-Star break are giving me a headache. Stunningly, the third base situation has gotten even worse since Vinny Castilla was released. The Padres sport a .219/.271/.308 line at the position. Not including pitchers, that is the lowest team OPS for any position this season. In fact, through August 11, only three teams have positions with an aggregate OPS below 600:

  • Padres third basemen: .219/.271/.308
  • Cardinals catchers: .215/.273/.309
  • Blue Jays second basemen: .227/.286/.307

Remember how bad third base was last year? We’re down 100 OPS points from that. Enzo Hernandez had a higher OPS in 1976. Rey Ordonez had a higher OPS four times in his career.

Yesterday’s strategy was to try and talk folks down from the ledge. A day later, after another lackluster performance from the Padres and another win by the new and improved Dodgers, I’m no longer sure that “don’t jump” is such good advice.

Still. Give me this over 2002.

It’s a beautiful day out this morning. I’m heading down to Tony Gwynn Stadium in a few to see if I can score tickets to the Aflac All-American Baseball Classic.

Then it’s off to Lake Elsinore by way of San Juan Capistrano for a good head-clearing drive and some minor league baseball. That may be a stupid way to get from here to there but at least I’ll be in a three-dimensional environment instead of staring at a laptop screen, wondering why my team can’t pick itself up off the ground and do something positive.

IGD: Padres @ Astros (11 Aug 06)

first pitch: 5:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chan Ho Park (7-6, 4.63 ERA) vs Andy Pettitte (10-12, 4.96 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets



Couple quick business items before we get rolling:

  • I’ve got seven folks (including me and Mrs. Ducksnort) confirmed for next Sunday’s meetup. I’m planning to buy tickets next Wednesday night, so if you’re interested please drop me a line.
  • We’ve had some great ideas on the book thing. In the interest of not burdening the entire Ducksnorts readership with all the gory details, let me know if you’d like to be involved and I’ll set up a Yahoo! Group or something where we can hash out ideas, etc.

Tough series against the Mets, the one team in the NL that inspires fear. It stinks to get swept. It stinks to fall out of first place. Yes, we know that. Now step back from the ledge.

Today is a new day, as the Padres head to Houston for three games against the Astros. Chan Ho Park returns from the disabled list to make his scheduled start Friday night. On the downside, Khalil Greene still isn’t ready to return after spraining his left middle finger last week.

As for the opposition, don’t be fooled by Andy Pettitte’s lofty ERA and hit totals. He completely shut down the Pads on August 1 at Petco Park. That said, as Pettitte has demonstrated on 12 separate occasions this year, he is beatable.

Payback would be sweet. Getting back into first place would be sweeter. New York is a memory; time to move on and take the next steps on the long road back to the post-season.

Go Padres!

Twisting, Turning, Descending, Emerging

The Ortega Highway stretches roughly 30 miles from the coastal town of San Juan Capistrano, over the Santa Ana mountains, and into Lake Elsinore. Opened in 1933, it features some of the most beautiful scenery in Southern California.

The road twists and turns at many points along the way — sometimes you wonder if you are even headed in the right direction. It can get congested with other motorists and will try your patience, especially if you are in a hurry to reach your destination. You may find yourself wondering why there isn’t a more direct route. Of course, if you do that, you will miss all the parts of the journey that make it worth your while despite the occasional frustration.

You will miss the trees. Heck, you’ll miss the forest. And most importantly, you’ll miss the descent into Elsinore. As you wind your way down the mountains, the entire Temecula Valley comes into view — farms, subdivisions creeping ever closer to the mountains, and the lake (yes, there is a lake in Lake Elsinore).

You may have been to the town dozens of times, but seeing it from above in its larger context, as part of an entire valley connected by networks of roads and people, you appreciate it that much more. You always enjoy visiting, even though usually you just whip up I-15, in a more direct route that gets you there faster but with less awareness of the larger picture.

Who wants to deal with all the twists and turns of a mountain road that was built more than 70 years ago? Who wants to take the extra time to reach their destination regardless of how beautiful the scenery might be (and especially with gas prices what they are)?

These are good questions. For all the romance of the highway and a road trip, it can be a royal pain in the rear when you’ve got a goal in mind. But if you choose a shorter, more direct route, you run the risk of missing that payoff and not seeing everything there is to see.

Shifting gears for a moment (you are driving manual, I assume), consider the San Diego Padres. For the vast majority of their existence, they have been the doormats of the National League. (Really, if you can’t be honest with yourself on a road trip, then what’s the point?)

The Padres have been to the playoffs four times in 36 years. They have never had three consecutive winning seasons (although that could change this year). From 1999 to 2003, they won 44% of their games. Expectations by fans, management, and even outsiders who marvel at the idea of a big-league ballclub in “that place south of LA” have been understandably low.

But on moving to Petco Park in 2004, things changed. The club started winning. And winning, as we all know, is addictive. Once you start, you don’t want to stop. Don’t believe me? Ask Braves fans who can’t be bothered to show up for the first round of the playoffs. They have a decidedly different level of expectation.

It makes sense when you think about it. They were in town while all this winning was taking place. From their point of view, nothing much changed. Why would they notice?

Why would any of us notice? It’s only by leaving town that you begin to see things differently.

The longer road may be less convenient, but that’s kind of the point. And, of course, there’s that big payoff of seeing the entire town surrounded by other towns, all connected. This cannot be underestimated. When you finally emerge from above and arrive in town, it’s still the same town. And you’re still the same you. But something has shifted, and it’s difficult to pinpoint. Even though it took longer to get where you were trying to go, you maybe decide that this place was worth the wait.

Before our metaphor becomes a hammer, I’ll leave you to connect the remaining dots. The important thing to know is that when I go to watch the Storm play this Saturday night, I will get to Elsinore via the Ortega Highway.

IGD: Padres @ Mets (10 Aug 06)

first pitch: 9:10 a.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Chris Young (9-5, 3.78 ERA) vs Orlando Hernandez (7-8, 4.97 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets

I’m told that this series between the Padres and Mets has had a playoff atmosphere. Judging from the fact that I’ve gotten home just in time to see the opposing closer finish out the Pads the first two nights (including once courtesy of a Greggian call against Ben Johnson Wednesday night that denied Brian Giles a final at-bat), and will be arriving at work as the finale starts this morning, I’d say it feels exactly like the playoffs: My team can’t win, and I can’t watch them at least try.

Chris Young gets the call for the Pads, while Orlando Hernandez starts for the Mets. Hernandez is a perfect fit for this ballclub. He gets abused by lefties (.302/.365/.566), so the opposing manager stacks the lineup. Then, assuming Hernandez survives the first few innings, the Mets have four southpaws in their bullpen who can cause serious matchup problems late in the game. This is terrific roster management — Hernandez’ one weakness isn’t as easy to exploit in his current environment as it might be elswhere; in other words, he has more value to the Mets than just about anyone else.

Young, meantime, has made four starts since the All-Star break and gotten pounded. Opponents are hitting .329 against him, with seven home runs in just 19 innings. On the bright side, Young hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his 10 starts away from Petco Park this season. In fact, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a road game since August 12, 2005, when he surrendered five at Yankee Stadium. Coincidentally, that’s the last time Young pitched in New York.

By the grace of Jeff Francis, who ended the Dodgers’ winning streak at 11 on Wednesday night, the Padres remain atop the NL West. With Los Angeles and Arizona both a half-game back, these truly are the dog days of summer. And even though it bothers me that the Pads haven’t done more to improve the club down the stretch, my irritation is mitigated somewhat by my belief that this team was built with 2007 in mind.

Let’s face it, there’s a real good chance that whoever wins the division will get stomped in the playoffs. I’d still rather be the team that gets stomped than a team watching them get stomped on television, if that makes any sense, but I guess the real question is how much of a sacrifice do you make for the right to get stomped?