Operation Center Field: Home, Home on the Range

When last we examined the center field situation, we formulated a series of questions to consider before moving forward. Now we’ll look at the first of these: What do the Padres need in a center fielder? Today we’ll cover the defensive side of the equation; tomorrow we’ll hit the offense. I think you see my priority for the position already.

Why Defense First?

Maddux Returns

Greg Maddux has agreed to a 1-year, $10 million contract with the Padres. MB offers analysis of the deal, while I’ll just say, “Woo-hoo!”

We’ve now had four years to watch the Padres play at Petco Park. We saw Jay Payton do an adequate job patrolling center in 2004, Dave Roberts struggle mightily in 2005, and Mike Cameron play it beautifully (except for the first 5-6 weeks of 2007) these past two years. With 81 games at Petco, and 9 more each at the challenging Coors Field and PhoneCo, the Padres ideally should have a center fielder who can cover a lot of ground, and preferably someone who is durable.

The defensive metrics currently available make my head spin. Not only are they sometimes confusing, but often they are contradictory as well. None of this, of course, is a valid reason for ignoring the available data. With that in mind, here are the top big-league center fielders of 2007 according to various metrics, with a few other names thrown in for good measure:

Revised Zone Rating

The Hardball Times’ revised zone rating (RZR) is “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out.” There were 17 qualifying center fielders in 2007; here are a few of interest:

  1. Andruw Jones .921
  2. Curtis Granderson .921
  3. Carlos Beltran .915
  4. Melky Cabrera .910
  5. David DeJesus .910
  6. Coco Crisp .909
  1. Mike Cameron .894
  1. Torii Hunter .891
  1. Aaron Rowand .861

Out of Zone

Out of zone (OOZ) represents “the total number of outs made by a fielder on balls hit outside of his zone.” This is a counting stat, not a rate stat:

  1. Ichiro Suzuki 97
  2. Curtis Granderson 85
  3. Andruw Jones 80
  4. Aaron Rowand 69
  5. Chris Young 66
  1. Coco Crisp 58
  1. Mike Cameron 53
  1. Torii Hunter 47
  2. David DeJesus 46

Ultimate Zone Rating

Ultimate zone rating (UZR) was devised a while back by Mitchel Lichtman. It’s a bit complicated — read the full explanation if you’re so inclined.

Complete rankings are unavailable for 2007, but Tango et al. at The Book have provided the top and bottom three from each league by position. Here are key center fielders:

  • Grady Sizemore +26
  • Curtis Granderson +18
  • Aaron Rowand +14
  • David DeJesus/Coco Crisp +13
  • Calros Beltran +8
  • Mike Cameron +7
  • Gary Matthews Jr. -8
  • Dave Roberts -26 (shock)

Range Factor

The original. Range factor (RF) is (assists + putouts)/game. ESPN lists 18 qualifiers at center field for 2007. Again, we examine the usual suspects:

  1. Coco Crisp 3.07
  2. Curtis Granderson 3.04
  3. Melky Cabrera 3.02
  4. Nook Logan 2.98
  5. Ichiro Suzuki/Gary Matthews Jr. 2.90
  1. David DeJesus 2.70
  2. Torii Hunter 2.68
  3. Andruw Jones 2.67
  1. Aaron Rowand 2.64
  1. Mike Cameron 2.52

Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans

This isn’t a defensive metric; this is based on visual observation and might help provide a counterpoint to all the other madness. From Tango’s 2007 report for center fielders (n = 52):

  1. Ichiro Suzuki
  2. Carlos Beltran
  3. Felix Pie
  4. Andruw Jones
  5. Torii Hunter
  1. Mike Cameron
  1. Curtis Granderson
  1. Coco Crisp
  1. Aaron Rowand
  1. David DeJesus
  1. Dave Roberts
  1. Juan Pierre

Okay, So What?

First off, we’re looking at only one year of data. You could repeat this exercise for previous seasons and really make a mess of things, er, I mean, gather more evidence, but we’ll stick with ’07 numbers for now. They’re the most recent available, and I doubt that additional data points would help enough to offset the cost of looking for them.

Second, I’m not satisfied with any of these metrics. That said, we can’t just bury our heads in the proverbial sand. It is my belief (hope?) that by attacking the question from multiple angles, using different tools that make an honest attempt to measure what we’re looking for, we’ll see some patterns.

Those bulky caveats out of the way, here are a few observations I’m comfortable making:

  • I don’t see evidence that Andruw Jones has slipped defensively. Although he isn’t universally regarded by available metrics as an elite defender, there’s nothing here that should be cause for alarm. His numbers were roughly the same in 2006 and 2007, both of which marked improvements over 2005. I’m not dismissing claims of a decline out of hand, just saying that if it’s happening, he’s doing an excellent job of disguising it.
  • Curtis Granderson can play center field. Also, he’s young and he can hit. This isn’t the first time I’ve wished we were the Tigers.
  • For all his other failings, Coco Crisp did good work in the field in ’07. Depending on which metric you use, his performance fell somewhere between above average and great. The downside is that this is out of line with his previous defensive numbers. Did he improve because he stayed healthy most of the year? Did he come into his own at age 27? Was it a fluke? We don’t know. We just know he played a good center field this year.
  • Torii Hunter’s reputation probably exceeds his ability at this point, and he ain’t getting younger. Fine ballplayer, but for the money he’s likely to command, he should be at the head of the class as a defender. He isn’t.
  • Aaron Rowand is all over the map. Look at his numbers to understand why I hate defensive metrics.

I could keep going, but you get the idea. Tomorrow we’ll deal with the offensive side of the equation.

Winter Leagues

  • Saguaros 4, Surprise 1 (box | recap). Nick Hundley batted fifth and DH’d; he went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and a sac fly. Will Venable started in right field, singling twice and doubling in four trips to the plate out of the #6 hole.

Dominican scores weren’t available as of this writing. No games were scheduled in Mexico or Venezuela.

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85 Responses »

  1. 48 … oops, sorry … just realized this article is from Nov 4 … so it’s “old news” that I’m just catching up on …

  2. 48 … one more thought from this article … here’s one of the more astounding things I’ve ever read …

    Geoff Blum, the Padres’ regular second baseman over the final two months, is a free agent whose market value may align him with the Dodgers, leaving the Padres with less-expensive utility men such as Oscar Robles and Luis Rodriguez.

    … really??? Geoff Blum “too expensive”??? And so expensive that he’d go to the Dodgers???? Be still, my heart!!!!

  3. 47: I like Willits, too. Not sure I buy that the relationship between Black and Sciosia means anything when it comes to the GMs, but anything that helps.

    Here’s a name for a second base stopgap: Brooks Conrad. Maybe somebody already mentioned him. Obviously not ideal, but there’s some chance he’d be as good as the Iguchi / Matsui free agent types for a lot less money. Money which could then be spent on starting pitching or an OF.

    http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Brooks-Conrad.shtml

  4. Dont worry about stop gaps at second. Matt Antonelli will be just fine

  5. 54: I’m a professional worrier.

    How close is Boston to Peabody?

  6. 53: I’m also doubtful about the relationship factor…just something to write about is my guess.

    Matsui doesn’t upset me. I do appreciate that he’s a backup SS as well. I do remember Towers being in on him when he was posted. He wouldn’t be a terrible one-year option–but I doubt that he’s taking a one-year deal. That .220/.304/.333 line away from home might scare people away though…maybe it scares me away :)

  7. 56: Someone else mentioned this when Eckstein was brought up for 2b….it’s nice to have a built-in backup SS. Both Eckstein and Matsui fit that.

  8. 20 minutes north

  9. 58: Ah hah. I sense a connection. Or perhaps just a rooting interest. Don’t get me wrong, I loves me some Antonelli, but I wouldn’t mind him getting some more experience at second. Might be better for the team and him, keep him from getting plowed on a DP.

  10. tell you the truth Im Matts dad I understand everyone is worried he might not be ready

  11. 60: On behalf of DSers everywhere, I say welcome!

    In the interest of full disclosure, I was awfully skeptical of Matt in 2006. But in my defense, I did try to wallop Keith Law about the virtual head and shoulders when he refused to acknowledge Matt’s great 2007.

  12. I have already had my say with Mr Law. I dont understand how he can not give Matt any credit on the year Matt had after only 1 year of pro ball.

  13. I ‘m glad that we aren’t talking about the Gold Glove Awards as they are completely meaningless. I’m surprised that they didn’t vote Jeter for another one, he’d fit in well with the rest of this list. There are four awful one is the NL and two in the AL. Maddux can’t be the best fielding pitcher in the NL unless the voters think that holding on runners isn’t part of fielding although I would assume that it is. He’s certainly not the worst choice in the NL but he doesn’t deserve one. The truly horrible winners are Russell Martin over Yadier Molina, Derrek Lee over Albert Pujols or even Todd Helton, and Jimmy Rollins over Troy Tulowitzki. I doubt that there is even one GM in baseball that would take the winner over the other players strictly for fielding. How Grady Sizemore and Torii Hunter make it over Granderson or even Crisp is a mystery to me — but I guess I watch too much baseball to be a GG voter.

  14. Hey, I talked to Steve Garrison’s mom on my blog (although, she was initially pretty pissed at me).

    It’s awesome to see you here, Jack.

    PS: I had Matt as my third best Padre prospect in May, but now I think he’s clearly #1 : )

  15. Thank You MB

  16. I really believe Chase Headley is Number 1 He had a great year this year He should be starting in 2008

  17. I feel that if the Padres give Matt the opportunity to start at 2nd in 2008 he will do a nice job The 2nd half of the year Matt showed how much he has improved

  18. 63: I don’t think that this GG was as bad as some (the Palmeiro choice was just indefensible), but there were issues. I probably wouldn’t have given Tulo the GG over some other SS in the NL, and 1B is pretty silly. Pujols is head and shoulders above the field there. However, I do think that Maddux still deserves the GG. He doesn’t hold runners, but that’s not really a part of the GG consideration. For everything that happens after bat meets ball, I’d rather have Maddux playing defense than any other pitcher in baseball.

  19. There’s a nice summary of CF options at Aaron Gleeman’s site. He doesn’t have the Padres in mind, but the Twins are in a bit of a similar situation post-Torii.

    http://www.aarongleeman.com/

  20. 60 … WOW … yes, welcome aboard, Jack!

    If Matt starts the year at Portland, you should come out and visit some time … give me a jingle (I’m in Corvallis, OR) and I’ll go to a Beaver game with ya!

    A coupla questions for ya … how’s Matt liking the AFL? … why does he appear to be struggling? … what’s his plans/schedule for after AFL (ie. between then and report to ST)?

  21. OT … Yo, the World Cup starts “today” …

    http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/schedule_world_cup.jsp

  22. 71 … OK, so it’s not “the” World Cup, I s’pose … but it is to me (and any “baseball” fan :-) )

  23. 71 … here’s a bully arm that I’ll bet KT gets an eye on …

    http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=pro_feature_110507

  24. I don’t think holding runners on should be part of the Gold Glove Award.

  25. 74 … I do … because I think the award is for “defense” = “preventing runs from scoring” and I think “holding runners on” is a part of that for pitchers (and catchers) … what am I missing (ie. what’s the argument against)?

  26. #36: I saw that, Pat; thanks much!

    #40: Two thoughts. First, congrats to Maddux; second, the writers made this award a joke years ago.

    #60: Let me join the welcome wagon; thanks, Jack, for stopping by and saying hey.

  27. Now to the Padres 2005 Media Guide, p. 234-236:

    Retired numbers are clearly listed: Garvey, Gwynn, Winfield, Jones, Jackie Robinson.

    There is a also a Padres Hall of Fame: Buzzie Bavasi, Nate Colbert, Jerry Coleman, Gwynn, Jones, Ray Kroc, Winfield.

    Two separate honors, with some overlap. Also seems like some overkill for a franchise with a history that isn’t that storied.

  28. The NY Times quoted Kevin Towers in their article about ARod this morning…

    Kevin Towers of San Diego, said: “Do I have interest in him? Absolutely. Do I think we’ve got a legitimate chance to sign him? No. I’d have a hard time paying one guy a third of our payroll. We wouldn’t be able to compete.”

    The article can be read here:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/07/sports/baseball/07chass.html?ref=sports

  29. Any discussion of Matsui finding his way to man 2B for the Padres in ’08 should be tempered by the comment in this article:

    http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_7389144

    “Matsui is looking to double his $1.5 million salary after hitting .288 with 32 stolen bases. The Cubs are interested, but Padres GM Kevin Towers said he would fill their need internally. Other teams cannot talk specific salary figures with the Rockies’ free agents until Tuesday. “

  30. Last link for today…can you tell I have baseball on the brain?

    This article says that if the Cubs had won in ’84, the series would have been played in Commisky…and that the Tribune Company planned the destruction of Wrigley Field, but Peter Uberoth invoked the “Best Interests of Baseball” clause and struck that idea down.

    http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/591759,CST-SPT-cubnews07.article

  31. Re: 79 it would be more like half of thier payroll.

  32. 78: Well so much for the Media Guide as a guide because Garvey’s number was quite clearly retired and displayed at Petco along with those mentioned in 2005 (and from the first day they moved into Petco).

  33. I know I’m late to the party, but welcome to DS Mr. Antonelli. I hope you enjoy it enough to stick around. It would be great to have the sort of insight you can provide as an insider and as a knowledgeable baseball fan.

  34. 79, 82… let me crunch some numbers here:

    A-rod: $30 mil…. Padres pay-roll last year: $58 mil… that’s half the payroll.

    Towers said A-Rod would be “1/3rd” of the payroll… does that mean he plans on increasing the payroll from the $60 it was, into the $90 mil range?