Did Giles Bounce Back, and Where Does He Go from Here?
Wed, Oct 31, 2007
by Geoff Young
As part of the book-writing process, I’m going through pretty much everything that we’ve covered here at Ducksnorts over the past year or so. One question we asked last November was whether Brian Giles‘ 2006 was a blip or the beginning of a slide.
Among other things, we looked at a slew of historical comps for Giles and found that most of the guys who continued to play didn’t experience further catastrophic decline. There were a couple notable exceptions (Fred Lynn, Ray Lankford) that haunt Padres fans in particular, but in general, we were looking at a group of players that didn’t fall off the proverbial cliff at age 36.
Thankfully, Giles didn’t go Lynn or Lankford on us. He ended up more-or-less duplicating his ‘06 season, with fewer walks and more power. I have concerns about the former (his BB/K ratio went from “freakish” to merely “real good”), but overall Giles’ game didn’t deteriorate — especially when you consider that he played much of the year hurt.
One of the other comps we mentioned was Moises Alou. Although he didn’t show up on Baseball-Reference’s list of similar players for Giles last year, he had in previous seasons. Well, he’s back at #8 on Giles’ list through age 36.
I like the Alou comp for a few reasons. First, he experienced a severe drop in power at age 35. Second, although his plate discipline slipped a shade, it never disappeared. Third, Alou made some gains in the power department at age 36 — they were larger than Giles’ last year, but the point remains that the apparent decline was abated in both cases.
Of course, part of my fascination with Alou stems from a hope that Giles will follow a similar path. From age 37-40, Alou has been a dangerous, if not always available, offensive weapon. It’s nice to think that maybe Giles has that in him as well.
If you look at what Giles’ other comps did from age 37 onward, you’ll see that Alou isn’t the only data point working in his favor. Bob Johnson enjoyed three more fruitful seasons, although that was in the ’40s and the game has changed a lot since then. Reggie Smith and Ellis Burks each had one more good year in them, with Burks kicking around a little after that.
Not everyone rebounded. Tim Salmon did, sort of, but only after missing a season due to injury. And even then, he played just the one year in a limited role. Kind of like Lankford, come to think of it. We’ve talked about Lynn. Dante Bichette? I don’t even know why he’s on this list; I can’t think of a less similar hitter, so we’ll ignore him. Paul O’Neill posted some nice counting numbers because he was surrounded by greatness. David Justice retired. We don’t know about Ryan Klesko, but given that he’s now a .260 hitter with no power, I don’t like his chances.
The other point to remember, and forgive me if I sound like a broken record, is that these are just statistical comparisons. This is just one tool we can use to evaluate players and examine possible paths their careers might follow. We can’t look at Giles and Alou, and extrapolate based on the fact that their records are similar in many respects. We can’t point to Alou and use him as an argument that Giles will elevate his game. The best we can do is note that this sort of thing has happened in the past and it might happen again.
You know all this already, but I have to say it anyway…
Winter Leagues
- Saguaros 16, Team China (box | recap). This one ended via mercy rule after seven innings. The Saguaros reached double digits in runs for the second straight game. Matt Antonelli, batting seventh, doubled in four at-bats. Nick Hundley got the start at DH and went 1-for-4. Will Startup threw a seven-pitch perfect sixth, while Jonathan Ellis allowed a single in his scoreless seventh.
- Navojoa 9, Guasave 6 (box). Oscar Robles doubled and walked in five trips to the plate. Luis Cruz, playing third base, doubled and singled in five at-bats. Between them, they drove in five of their team’s nine runs.
- Magallanes 4, Caracas 3 (box). Paul Abraham allowed one run on three hits and a walk in an inning and a third. That was enough to get hung with the loss.
It keeps raining in the Dominican Republic.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 31, 2007 at 8:25 am
So, it looks like the Doggers will hire Torre as their manager. Bummer. The guy knows how to win.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
October 31, 2007 at 8:31 am
I expect the Cameron discussion top dominate today’s thread. It should be really interesting to see what happens with him at this point.
Giles, for as much crap as I give him, has been a key cog in the Padres machine the past few days. His defense in RF is pretty impressive, and hopefully he can K less next year.
October 31, 2007 at 8:32 am
1: I think anyone could have won with those Yankees teams.
October 31, 2007 at 8:38 am
Re Torre: Knows how to win? A monkey could have filled out the Yankees lineup card and won a similar amount of games. Torre managed before the Yanks hired him. He had a lousy record when he worked for bad franchises; he’s not a genius or a winner because he was lucky enough to get the Yankees job. His WP% in 1,897 games before joining the Yankees? .471.
October 31, 2007 at 8:43 am
I was under the impression that MLB didn’t suspend for stimulatns until the second offense.
October 31, 2007 at 8:44 am
If Giles has a similar year to 06 & 07 in 08, is it a an easy decision for the Pads to pay him $3M at the end of the year to not be a Padre in 09 or do they think about picking up his $9M option?
October 31, 2007 at 8:50 am
#4: I address the Torre situation over at Knuckle Curve this morning. He’s a good manager, but he gets credit for the wrong things. I don’t think the Dodgers are anywhere near ready for a guy with his skill set.
#6: I think as long as Giles doesn’t decline, the Pads have to seriously look at his option for ‘09.
On a general note, I cannot believe that Mike Cameron is a Type B free agent. Any system that rates Michael Barrett more favorably than Cameron over the past two seasons — even relative to position — is broken beyond repair.
October 31, 2007 at 9:01 am
Im glad that the Dodgers are paying thier manager $2.5 M, to me no manager is worth more than $1M if that. How many games does a manager win for you each year? A
lso Torre is very Bochy like with Vets vs young talent. I think having Torre there may end up hurting the dodgers young talent’s development.
October 31, 2007 at 9:26 am
8:
I don’t know if a Manager can win you games, but a bad manager can lose you games, via improper use of the bullpen and bench.
A manager with a style that is incompatible with his players, can create a very bad situation. One example would be a guy like Girardi, going to the Yankees. His style may play with a team loaded with low talent rookies, but may turn out to be a disaster in New York.
October 31, 2007 at 9:32 am
I agree that a manager can loose you games but you can get a guy like Black or Melvin at a significantly cheaper rate to just not steer the ship off course.
October 31, 2007 at 9:40 am
The Padres are not filled high dollar players like the Dodgers and Yankees. I would suggest that when you choose to go the route of high profile players, a compatible manager would have to be as high profile as the players.
October 31, 2007 at 9:56 am
5.
That is true. Apparently this was the 2nd time he failed a test.
http://sportsline.com/mlb/story/10443407
October 31, 2007 at 10:04 am
7:
Should the Padres offer Barrett and Bradley arbitration, in order to secure the picks? I hate to think what an arbritator might rule, as to their value.
October 31, 2007 at 10:09 am
Re: 13 yes for both, Barrett will move on to greener pastures, I think some team will give him a multi-year deal, Bradley may or may not move on but I think he would be worth takeing a risk on for one more year.
October 31, 2007 at 10:22 am
9: The Marlins team wasnt exactly “low talent rookies” they were rookies, yes but low talent?
October 31, 2007 at 10:29 am
RE Cam: Thats a bummer. Do you think he used them in the 1 game playoff to play through pain and time off? Or do you think he was using it regularly?
October 31, 2007 at 10:35 am
Re: 16 he tested positive more than once (see 12)
October 31, 2007 at 10:37 am
12 … thanks for the link … i don’t like that there’s no mention of when he failed the first time … and the comments about “the actual supplement is gone, and therefore cannot be tested” seem fishy …
October 31, 2007 at 10:43 am
re: OG … i wish i understood more about “he played much of the year hurt” … but based on what i do know, it seems the impact of that in 2007 was huge … and so i think there’s reason to expect 2008 to exceed expectations that are based on 2006 + 2007 … assuming he can be healthy in 2008 …
October 31, 2007 at 10:57 am
I don’t think Giles and Alou can be compared moving forward. They completely different body types, different swings and different playing approaches. Giles is stocky, short compact swing and plays all out. Alou is lanky, long swing, doesn’t quite go as hard and he pees on his hands. So I wouldn’t count on Giles having the prowess of Alou moving forward.
I think you can replace Giles actual production for far less than $9m. You could get the same thing out of Hairston now, with less walks, but much more power.
I say you offer all arbitration. It’s not like any of them are terrible and to have them for a one year committment is not bad. Having Bard and Barrett would be fine, but I don’t think he’d take it. Plus, Cameron wouldn’t get paid for 25 games b/c of the suspension.
October 31, 2007 at 10:58 am
For BP subscribers, here’s what Nate Silver thinks of the “Offseason Plans, NL West” …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=6899
… his summary for what he thinks the Padres will do:
“The Padres’ problems in the outfield coincide very well with what’s available in the free agent market, and it’s hard to run though this winter’s scenarios without having at least one of those big talents ending up in San Diego.”
October 31, 2007 at 11:09 am
20.
Alou may pee on his hands but Giles parties naked and you gotta respect that. Pick your poison but for me I’ll take a guy who takes a naked batting practice now and then over a guy with pissy hands.
October 31, 2007 at 11:10 am
22 It’s true, you don’t see the elaborate hand-shake celebrations from Alou and teammates.
October 31, 2007 at 11:21 am
Here is an intersting note I read from Buster Olney today. Apparently each team in MLB is recieving millions of dollars per year and possibly exceeding $30mil for the revenue generated by MLB.com. So basically if any of that is true then A-Rod will cost virtually nothing or at least that is how Boras is going to spin it. I’m sold c’mon Padres just sign him already.
http://insider.espn.go.com/esp.....ney_buster
“It sure as heck seems like the Angels are gearing up for a run at Alex Rodriguez, in reading Mike DiGiovanna’s story this morning. There’s another revenue stream that the Angels, and every other team, is now drawing once unexpected millions from: the money created by the success of MLB.com. The annual check that the Angels (and every other team) receive from this source may well exceed $30 million, by now.”
October 31, 2007 at 11:31 am
#13: Yes to Bradley, no to Barrett; I don’t want to see a repeat of the Todd Walker situation.
October 31, 2007 at 11:32 am
Rosenthal speculates that maybe A-Rod wouldn’t want to hit in the NL West given the three pitcher-friendly parks. I’m convinced that ballpark reputation is just as hard to change as Gold Glove worthiness. My copy of Bill James 07 shows Dodger Stadium not really playing like a pitcher’s haven. You know, Kenny, the Dodgers eliminated all that foul territory a few years ago. Didja not notice?
October 31, 2007 at 11:42 am
26: I could have explained my point more clearly: Dodger Stadium isn’t the pitcher’s park it once was. It annoys me when writers expose their laziness. Pick up a relevant book and stuff. Or check a Web site. Does anyone think that A-Rod will seriously consider supposed ballpark effect?
October 31, 2007 at 11:52 am
re: A-Rod … every time I type that, it reminds of what one sports radio or writer guy once called his agent (A-Hole)
…
I think the top-3 here makes sense … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....p;type=lgn … especially the Giants, looking to fill the large void left by Barry … but both LAs make a lot of sense also …
26 … do you think the A-Rod might think that he’d not get the career HR record with the Dogs or Gi’nts? Hmmm, I guess that’d be a factor …
Here’s a thought … I wonder why A-Rod/A-Hole want a long contract? If he’s going to be worth $30MM in 2008 and 2017, then couldn’t he maximize his earnings (and chances for a WS ring) by going year-to-year? At this point, he’s decided to not play the “Gwynn/Ripken-loyalty” card … so why not go all the way and play for the highest-bidder-with-a-chance-at-a-ring each year?
So … along those lines … given that it seems like the Padres saved some money in 2007 (and perhaps also in 2006) … might the Padres consider a go-for-it-all strategy for 2008 and offer A-Rod $35MM for one year? I’d play him at 2B … and he’s obviously the backup-SS as well … and I’d start getting Kouz some OF playing time in a winter league … eh, defensively, signing A-Rod is messy, but it’d be a fun mess to work thru in 2008 …
October 31, 2007 at 12:09 pm
A side-effect of A-Rod leaving yankees that i’ve not heard anyone mention is that i’ll bet the price for pitchers goes up … because the money the yankee’s now have free’d up can and will be spent on pitching …
I think most of us agree that, contrary to appearances, the Padres biggest needs are on the pitching staff … and I think that’s getting to be more and more true for all teams … and so I think all teams serious about winning a WS will need to shift their budget to spend more on quality pitching …
This is what concerns me most about the Rox … they have several good/young pitchers now …
October 31, 2007 at 12:12 pm
28: I wouldn’t expose Arod’s legs to the blind-side pivot. Put him at short, move Greene to second.
Huh, I just woke up.
30 million more per team in revenue. All the increased revenue from Petco. Wow, maybe NEXT year we’ll draft like a team trying to build via the farm system.
October 31, 2007 at 12:18 pm
29: He may cost a lot but I imagine the Pads will probably check with the A’s about Blanton. Of course, many teams will.
28: Interesting thinking. If Dodger Stadium’s reputation as a pitcher’s park is indeed outdated - and Boras/Rodriguez figure that out - then I don’t see the problem. I don’t have the book with me at work but I remember reading that AT&T was a big-time HR suppressor in 06: a ballpark indice of 69. IIRC, Petco’s HR number was 99 in ‘06.
October 31, 2007 at 12:22 pm
29: This year’s pitching free agent crop is uggggggggggggggggly. Hasn’t stopped the Yankees before (Hey! Carl Pavano had a good year! Get him!), but they may not set the market when Carlos Silva is one of the more attractive names out there.
Other than Schilling, I don’t see many FA starting pitchers of interest.
October 31, 2007 at 12:28 pm
31: Blanton (if he’s on the block), Rich Hill, Burnett, probably still Dontrelle seem like the biggest names on the trade market. But the type of prospects that other teams value most highly — barely rookies or near-major-league-ready — we have…….Chase Headley. That’s prospects we could part with without messing up future plans totally, so no Antonelli.
I don’t see Venable, Hunter, LeBlanc, Inman, etc. being too attractive to those teams. But maybe we could get one of them.
October 31, 2007 at 12:40 pm
Re 24 and 30: The Buster Olney quote comes from an article that has apparently given both of you quite a misleading impression. Just because mlb.com may be rewarding teams with $30 million a year in 2007 or 2008 doesn’t mean it was giving them 0 in prior years, so it isn’t a 30 million dollar windfall that teams can use towards A Rod or not going cheap on their draft picks.
MLB has been a pretty good source of revenue for every team over the years, and that is all equal share money.
Besides, if EVERY team gets the $30 million, that gives the Padres no competitive advantage in terms of increasing their relative ability to sign free agents or draft certain players. The Padres may spend more on non-big name free agents and college draftees, though, but they will still look “cheap” to the naysayers.
Now, if you can find a way to give the Padres relative financial improvement vis-a-vis the other teams, then maybe you can justify your pipe dreams better.
October 31, 2007 at 12:42 pm
21: Oh, it’s not hard for Padres fans to create a scenario where no big names land here.
33: Is Rich Hill really on the block? Hill would be a great fit for Petco where his one weakness, the home run, would be mitigated.
October 31, 2007 at 12:46 pm
If my math is correct, $30 million per team from MLB.com equals nearly a billion dollars. MLB.com is generating that kind of profit? How is that possible?
October 31, 2007 at 12:48 pm
The fact that a manager “knows how to win” is a cliche and silly.
But the fact that managers aren’t worth wins and can only lose games is gaining too much ground.
Currently, Cox, La Russa and Piniella are worth wins. Billy Martin was worth quite a few wins. Earl Weaver was. Dick Williams was. Maybe it’s only three to five a generation, but give them their due.
October 31, 2007 at 12:49 pm
35: I don’t know. I made it sound like he was, didn’t I? We’re probably not prepared to pay the asking price anyway, which would seem to be Khalil.
October 31, 2007 at 12:57 pm
36: Don’t ask questions like that or the Selig Goon Squad will track you down.
MLB.com was just under 200 million in 2006. I don’t know if they were funneling ticket sales through it then, but that’s one area of potentially explosive growth.
http://sportsbiznews.blogspot......lbcom.html
October 31, 2007 at 12:58 pm
32: Carlos Silva and Curt Schilling would both make for very nice acquisitions.
October 31, 2007 at 1:04 pm
40: I have no interest in Silva. 395 strikeouts in 945 innings for his career. And he’s going to probably get a big multiyear deal.
Schilling, yes.
October 31, 2007 at 1:12 pm
The money I’ve read on Silva is like 4 years, $40 million. Yikes.
October 31, 2007 at 1:20 pm
#32: Yeah, Pavano and Jaret Wright in the same year wasn’t such a great idea.
#36: With a legalized monopoly, many things are possible.
#37: I’d add Whitey Herzog to the list.
#41: Agreed. Schilling would be a great fit here.
#42: Ah, the value of innings. Matt Morris and Jeff Suppan give their hearty thanks.
October 31, 2007 at 1:33 pm
37, 43: A lot of those managers might be guys who can add wins to particular clubs of certain configurations. But Tampa Bay was pretty flat under Pinella. Neither Martin nor Herzog ever seemed enamored of current offensive trends.
October 31, 2007 at 1:35 pm
36.
Yeah that seems a little high doesn’t it? MLB.tv and all the merch and advertising cannot generate that much revenue can it?
October 31, 2007 at 1:40 pm
45: They also get a lot of money from running services for other companies.
October 31, 2007 at 1:42 pm
Article on MLBAM, the parent of MLB.COM.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....y-machine/
“MLBAM revenues for 2005 are expected to rise 88% to $260 million, and annual revenue is expected to jump 30-50% over each of the next five years.”
It’s still not 900 million, but that’s a lot of money before you sign one player or sell one ticket.
October 31, 2007 at 1:43 pm
Oh, no. A caller on 1090 says the Pads need David Eckstein at 2B - he’ll light a fire under Kouz, Greene and Adrian. Why stop there? Let’s go get Darin Erstad, too.
October 31, 2007 at 1:48 pm
48: I don’t mind Eckstein, but it’s not his fire-lighting that makes him a target. It’s his career 351 OBP. Not spectacular, but more than acceptable, and he might be a terrific defender at second. I worry about his shot-put throwing style on the DP, but a shortstop should have some serious range on the other side of the bag.
October 31, 2007 at 1:48 pm
36 … $1B does seem overstated … that’d be 100 million people paying $10 each … which seems like a stretch today …
October 31, 2007 at 1:54 pm
49 … I love the idea of whomever we have at 2B next year being a “former-SS” … ie. someone who is also our backup-SS.
I went to 2 of the Padre games up at Seattle in 2006 in which Mariner 2B-man, Jose Lopez, a former-SS, really kill’d us in those games defensively … an unforgetable reminder of the value of up-the-middle-defense (which I think is generally highly- but still under-valued).
October 31, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Kevin, good point. A manager can definitely pick you up a few wins or losses over the course of a season; it’s the idea that Joe Torre is a great manager based on the Yankees’ success I take issue with.
48: Good call! Erstad and Eckstein on the same club could lead to the highest grittiness percentage in franchise history! Do you think we could get Podsednik, too? Ozzie always said he was a grinder.
October 31, 2007 at 2:02 pm
52: Has Lenny Dykstra officially retired yet?
October 31, 2007 at 2:07 pm
52: I absolutely agree about Torre. He’s just not good.
44: Not really.
Martin’s favorite player was Rickey Henderson, other than Munson, of course. He managed him in Oakland and New York. Martin’s leadoff hitters included Carew, Rickey, Willie Randolph, Mickey Rivers. Really good ones. He also always had home run hitters in his lineups.
Herzog was really into the running game, of course. But he tailored his teams to big turf parks in Kansas City and St. Louis. A great observation about him from Bill James: He looked at what a player could do, not what a player couldn’t do.
October 31, 2007 at 2:11 pm
#49: Agreed about Eckstein. I like his OBP. Really don’t understand why anyone would think that Adrian, Kouz, and Khalil need a fire lit under them, but I don’t understand why people think a lot of things.
#54: James also noted that Herzog’s use of the running game stemmed from the fact that he had fast guys on his team. He adapted his managerial style to the club and home park at his disposal, not the other way around like, e.g., Maury Wills.
October 31, 2007 at 2:13 pm
Right, he made great players out of Willie Wilson and Willie McGee, who really weren’t.
He told Wilson to stop hitting the ball as hard as he could. He told him to hit over the infield’s hit and run like hell.
The Yankees didn’t think McGee was a major league starter, but Herzog knew he would be in his park.
October 31, 2007 at 2:17 pm
54: Those are good leadoff hitters no matter who managed them. He resisted hitting Reggie higher in his lineup because he was worried the strikeouts would kill his running game.
Not sure James is accurate there. Herzog looked at Fred McGriff and decided he wasn’t a good clutch hitter because he didn’t have enough RBI. Since he never managed in a high-power environment it’s hard to know how he’d handle it, but if you read his “You’re missing a great game,” he comes off as a crusty curmudgeon, lamenting almost all of the changes of the last 20 years.
October 31, 2007 at 2:19 pm
57: Not that Herzog managed McGriff, but that was his opinion of him.
On Wilson, I thought it was the other way around. Willie came to the Royals as a slap-hitter. After a few years a hitting coach told him to start swinging harder. It’s in the last BJHA, but I can’t get to mine right now.
October 31, 2007 at 2:23 pm
On Wilson: He turned into a poor hitter after Herzog. It was a new hitting coach. But Herzog accentuated his strengths.
Martin understood what Rickey brought to a team better than anyone else. Most just marveled at his steals.
On the Reggie part, Martin did want Joe Rudi instead of Reggie. But half of that was because of Reggie being Reggie. Half of the reason he hit him lower in the lineup was to spite him.
October 31, 2007 at 2:27 pm
43: Yep, the caller said those guys and the team looked lackluster at times. You know, TW, you’re right about Eckstein. Not the worst idea for 2nd by any stretch if he’s plus defensively there.
A little alarm goes off any time I hear someone say the Pads need a grinder or sparkplug. If he can actually still play the game, then fine. I was tempted to call in and suggest Erstad for CF. Kentera would probably love the Podsednik idea and subsequently credit him for the ChiSox’s WS victory - well along with Blum, of course.
October 31, 2007 at 2:29 pm
Oops, make that 55, not 43.
October 31, 2007 at 2:30 pm
I dont think Eckstein would sign a one year deal.
October 31, 2007 at 2:32 pm
pages 758-759 of Historical Abstract:
“Wilson came to the majors in 1976 as a speed burner whose hitting was suspect. In 1979 Whitey Herzog taught him to swing softly with his wrists, basically just dropping the head of the bat in front of the pitch, and for several years, doing that, he was a highly effective hitter, hitting hundreds of soft popups that settled between the infield and out. …
“Worse yet, in the mid-1980s the Royals hired Lee May as a hitting coach. Lee May legitimized Wilson’s fantasies about being a real hitter, taught him to drive the ball hard to the outfield, so that somebody could run under it and catch it. His batting average dropped 50 points overnight, but Wilson thought it was cool because he was hitting the ball so much harder than he used to.”
October 31, 2007 at 2:43 pm
On pages 117 to 121 of the 1988 Baseball Abstract, James breaks down what a manager does — game level decision making, team-level decision making and personnel management and instruction.
He talks about Herzog throughout and how he is excellent at all three. He also points out that nearly all of Herzog’s lineups with the Royals and Cardinals had very good walk numbers. In 1987, even Vince Coleman walked 70 times. Ozzie Smith, in his career year that season, had 89. In 1985 and 87 when the Cardinals won pennants, they lead the league in walks.
The fact that Herzog found role for players who other teams didn’t think were very good and that he valued defense so much can be viewed as “moneyball”-type decisions.
October 31, 2007 at 3:04 pm
Not that we ever really seriously thought it could happen, but the UT is reporting the Pad’s will sit out for the A-Rod bidding (Cabrera as well).
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
October 31, 2007 at 3:05 pm
Re 65: This is also reported at MLBTR, although they site the UT.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
October 31, 2007 at 3:10 pm
59: I don’t see how a manager being willing to sacrifice wins to spite his best hitter is an endorsement of his managerial skills. And Rickey had a lot of success under a lot of different managers. His best season was under LaRussa. He was really good for Steve Boros.
64: I’m not discounting James’ beliefs, but if Herzog was that great an instructor, he might have taught Wilson (or Frank White, for that matter) to take a walk. As much as I love Bill James, I’m a little suspect of him when it comes to former Royals. James was a Royals fan when the Royals were great. Whitey had more than a bit of a cult, much like LaRussa does.
I’m not saying Herzog was bad. I’m saying he might not be suited for many current baseball teams. Like most managers, he has to be in the right situation, with some influence over personnel decisions. Put him in charge of the 2007 Red Sox or even the 2007 Padres, with very little depth, no team speed, how many wins does he add? Put him on the 2007 Marlins, he can run as many infield practices as he wants, he’s not turning Cabrera/Ramirez/Uggla into plus defenders.
October 31, 2007 at 3:10 pm
MLBTR also reports that Schilling would be willing to pitch for the Pad’s next year. I read that he would be agreeable to a one year contract to see if he can still pitch effectively.
If I were a wagering man (and I’m not) I would guess Towers makes a strong bid for 1 yr of Schilling.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
October 31, 2007 at 3:21 pm
Herzog adjusted to his talent. He would have done that anywhere.
He did instruct Wilson quite well. He made him a .300 hitter, instead of a .250 hitter. You want him to teach him to take 75 walks a year, too? He can’t build the perfect player out of what was a fast runner.
White was the best defensive second baseman in the game. So a manager can live with some of his faults.
I think Herzog in his prime would be great for next season’s Padres. Do you really think he ran people all over the place because he felt like it? That’s sort of absurd. He did it because that was best for his teams.
All of Martin’s teams showed significant improvement when he took over. The only reason he eventually ran himself out of town was because of his personality. But I’m just talking about managing players and the game.
October 31, 2007 at 3:24 pm
As for Martin’s spite of Reggie, that’s a personality issue. Not one I am endorsing.
But at managing a ball club, he was incredible. Jeff Burroughs, Thurman Munson, Don Mattingly, Rickey. Lots of career years under him. There’s a reason for that.
October 31, 2007 at 3:31 pm
65 … thanks for the link! Here’s another nugget from that article …
Chase Headley – a Double-A star who will play third and left field in spring training
… hmmm … I think that’s the first I’ve heard of it being Headley going to the OF rather than KK …
also, I don’t understand why the Padres don’t get into the “Cabrera auction” with the idea of making him an OF’er?
eh, but then that reminds me that what the padres really need is more/better pitching … it’s just hard to forget all those games when it seemed like the bats couldn’t generate even a single run …
October 31, 2007 at 3:57 pm
Ouch, Cameron’s taking a beating from the commenters on Krasovic’s story.
” … he’s a crap CF. Many times he’s had the chance to make a BIG put out near the wall, and many times has he alligator armed it or just missed it completely. All you Cameron apologists need to go back and look at the tape.”
“Cameron is a rally killer who swings at terrible pitches. His batting average is miserable. Imagine Peavy’s strikeout record if he got to pitch to this loser. On top of that, he repeatedly misjudged fly balls, making routine fly balls look like web gems only because of his bad judgement.
… He may be a nice guy, but if I want a friend I’ll get a dog…I need an outfielder who can bat north of 300.”
October 31, 2007 at 4:19 pm
TW, great point about James and former Royals. I’m not saying Herzog wasn’t a good manager, but he probably wasn’t as good as James makes him sound.
P4FL, I hope KT takes a run at Schilling. I think there’s a lot more potential there for a strong late career season than there ever was with David Wells.
October 31, 2007 at 5:20 pm
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/2.....sportsbiz/ So baseball’s revenue tops $6 Billion at a minimum in 2007. That’s an average of $200M each team, ( the average attendance was 1.6M) MLB says that’s a 50% revenue increase from 2004, therefore the ave. revenue was $133M back then. Say a team had $55M in payroll then and broke even, other expenses would be $78M. If those other expenses increased 10% per year, they would be $101M in 2007. To break even in 2007, the payroll would be $109M.
October 31, 2007 at 6:16 pm
69: There was more to Wilson hitting .300 than just the White Rat. He started playing on artificial turf. He got older, having made his major league debut (at a game I attended!) at age 20.
White was superb. I really doubt any truly great manager would think that asking him to pay attention to the count when he was hitting was going to sap him of his athleticism on defense.
His book gives a pretty clear indication of the kind of baseball he likes. I don’t think he’d run the 2007 Padres because that would be suicide. But I do think he’d have been lobbying for Juan Pierre.
70: Every year players have career years. Bochy managed Caminiti, Vaughn, Kevin Brown, Trevor Hoffman, Dave Roberts to their best years. Or turn it around, Gwynn’s two best years came under Larry Bowa - yes, Larry Bowa - and Jim Riggleman.
Munson had 126 OPS+ and 141+ seasons under Ralph Houk. That ties his career high. The 141 was by far his best, the 126 tied for second. Henderson’s best year was 1990 under LaRussa.
October 31, 2007 at 7:00 pm
You’re wrong.
October 31, 2007 at 7:32 pm
76: Convincing.
October 31, 2007 at 8:38 pm
77: Thanks. I try.
October 31, 2007 at 9:11 pm
Elias rankings are out: http://www.usatoday.com/sports.....itialskip#
Bradley and Barrett are Type A, and Cameron is Type B.
Did Bradley’s injury pretty much ruin the shot at Type A compensation for the Padres?
October 31, 2007 at 11:17 pm
I saw Headley play a lot this summer and I really like his swing ! I am not sure yet about big power numbers from him - he is a big time gap hitter who may get stronger and is also definitely athletic enough to play left field. I have been reading on some websites about Chase Headley’s short work with the Pads as being “disappointing” –to me it was the opposite, I really liked the way he played –to me he played like he belonged
he also hit a few bullets in his first days at Wrigley that were caught otherwise the short sampling numbers would have been higher .
October 31, 2007 at 11:27 pm
Various 2007 Padres relievers on the Elias list:
8 Trevor
20 Scott Linebrink
21 Cla
25 Heath Bell (WTF?)
45 Doug Brocail
60 Joe Thatcher
103t Justin Hampson
107 Kevin Cameron
I’m sure I missed some, considering we carried 13 guys down there half the season. Heath Bell has to be top 10 next year if he has anything close to a similar year.
November 1, 2007 at 12:22 am
Andruw Jones is a type B, so that definitely makes him more attractive. We wouldn’t lose our first round draft pick if we signed him.
November 1, 2007 at 6:55 am
The bottom keeps falling out of Cameron’s Free Agency: “I’ve played drunk.”
http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse.....yed-drunk/
November 1, 2007 at 7:45 am
74 … this tells me that Scott Boras, as usual, is being very practical … that’s a lot of revenue …