As part of the book-writing process, I’m going through pretty much everything that we’ve covered here at Ducksnorts over the past year or so. One question we asked last November was whether Brian Giles‘ 2006 was a blip or the beginning of a slide.
Among other things, we looked at a slew of historical comps for Giles and found that most of the guys who continued to play didn’t experience further catastrophic decline. There were a couple notable exceptions (Fred Lynn, Ray Lankford) that haunt Padres fans in particular, but in general, we were looking at a group of players that didn’t fall off the proverbial cliff at age 36.
Thankfully, Giles didn’t go Lynn or Lankford on us. He ended up more-or-less duplicating his ’06 season, with fewer walks and more power. I have concerns about the former (his BB/K ratio went from “freakish” to merely “real good”), but overall Giles’ game didn’t deteriorate — especially when you consider that he played much of the year hurt.
One of the other comps we mentioned was Moises Alou. Although he didn’t show up on Baseball-Reference’s list of similar players for Giles last year, he had in previous seasons. Well, he’s back at #8 on Giles’ list through age 36.
I like the Alou comp for a few reasons. First, he experienced a severe drop in power at age 35. Second, although his plate discipline slipped a shade, it never disappeared. Third, Alou made some gains in the power department at age 36 — they were larger than Giles’ last year, but the point remains that the apparent decline was abated in both cases.
Of course, part of my fascination with Alou stems from a hope that Giles will follow a similar path. From age 37-40, Alou has been a dangerous, if not always available, offensive weapon. It’s nice to think that maybe Giles has that in him as well.
If you look at what Giles’ other comps did from age 37 onward, you’ll see that Alou isn’t the only data point working in his favor. Bob Johnson enjoyed three more fruitful seasons, although that was in the ’40s and the game has changed a lot since then. Reggie Smith and Ellis Burks each had one more good year in them, with Burks kicking around a little after that.
Not everyone rebounded. Tim Salmon did, sort of, but only after missing a season due to injury. And even then, he played just the one year in a limited role. Kind of like Lankford, come to think of it. We’ve talked about Lynn. Dante Bichette? I don’t even know why he’s on this list; I can’t think of a less similar hitter, so we’ll ignore him. Paul O’Neill posted some nice counting numbers because he was surrounded by greatness. David Justice retired. We don’t know about Ryan Klesko, but given that he’s now a .260 hitter with no power, I don’t like his chances.
The other point to remember, and forgive me if I sound like a broken record, is that these are just statistical comparisons. This is just one tool we can use to evaluate players and examine possible paths their careers might follow. We can’t look at Giles and Alou, and extrapolate based on the fact that their records are similar in many respects. We can’t point to Alou and use him as an argument that Giles will elevate his game. The best we can do is note that this sort of thing has happened in the past and it might happen again.
You know all this already, but I have to say it anyway…
Winter Leagues
- Saguaros 16, Team China (box | recap). This one ended via mercy rule after seven innings. The Saguaros reached double digits in runs for the second straight game. Matt Antonelli, batting seventh, doubled in four at-bats. Nick Hundley got the start at DH and went 1-for-4. Will Startup threw a seven-pitch perfect sixth, while Jonathan Ellis allowed a single in his scoreless seventh.
- Navojoa 9, Guasave 6 (box). Oscar Robles doubled and walked in five trips to the plate. Luis Cruz, playing third base, doubled and singled in five at-bats. Between them, they drove in five of their team’s nine runs.
- Magallanes 4, Caracas 3 (box). Paul Abraham allowed one run on three hits and a walk in an inning and a third. That was enough to get hung with the loss.
It keeps raining in the Dominican Republic.
49 … I love the idea of whomever we have at 2B next year being a “former-SS” … ie. someone who is also our backup-SS.
I went to 2 of the Padre games up at Seattle in 2006 in which Mariner 2B-man, Jose Lopez, a former-SS, really kill’d us in those games defensively … an unforgetable reminder of the value of up-the-middle-defense (which I think is generally highly- but still under-valued).
Kevin, good point. A manager can definitely pick you up a few wins or losses over the course of a season; it’s the idea that Joe Torre is a great manager based on the Yankees’ success I take issue with.
48: Good call! Erstad and Eckstein on the same club could lead to the highest grittiness percentage in franchise history! Do you think we could get Podsednik, too? Ozzie always said he was a grinder.
52: Has Lenny Dykstra officially retired yet?
52: I absolutely agree about Torre. He’s just not good.
44: Not really.
Martin’s favorite player was Rickey Henderson, other than Munson, of course. He managed him in Oakland and New York. Martin’s leadoff hitters included Carew, Rickey, Willie Randolph, Mickey Rivers. Really good ones. He also always had home run hitters in his lineups.
Herzog was really into the running game, of course. But he tailored his teams to big turf parks in Kansas City and St. Louis. A great observation about him from Bill James: He looked at what a player could do, not what a player couldn’t do.
#49: Agreed about Eckstein. I like his OBP. Really don’t understand why anyone would think that Adrian, Kouz, and Khalil need a fire lit under them, but I don’t understand why people think a lot of things.
#54: James also noted that Herzog’s use of the running game stemmed from the fact that he had fast guys on his team. He adapted his managerial style to the club and home park at his disposal, not the other way around like, e.g., Maury Wills.
Right, he made great players out of Willie Wilson and Willie McGee, who really weren’t.
He told Wilson to stop hitting the ball as hard as he could. He told him to hit over the infield’s hit and run like hell.
The Yankees didn’t think McGee was a major league starter, but Herzog knew he would be in his park.
54: Those are good leadoff hitters no matter who managed them. He resisted hitting Reggie higher in his lineup because he was worried the strikeouts would kill his running game.
Not sure James is accurate there. Herzog looked at Fred McGriff and decided he wasn’t a good clutch hitter because he didn’t have enough RBI. Since he never managed in a high-power environment it’s hard to know how he’d handle it, but if you read his “You’re missing a great game,” he comes off as a crusty curmudgeon, lamenting almost all of the changes of the last 20 years.
57: Not that Herzog managed McGriff, but that was his opinion of him.
On Wilson, I thought it was the other way around. Willie came to the Royals as a slap-hitter. After a few years a hitting coach told him to start swinging harder. It’s in the last BJHA, but I can’t get to mine right now.
On Wilson: He turned into a poor hitter after Herzog. It was a new hitting coach. But Herzog accentuated his strengths.
Martin understood what Rickey brought to a team better than anyone else. Most just marveled at his steals.
On the Reggie part, Martin did want Joe Rudi instead of Reggie. But half of that was because of Reggie being Reggie. Half of the reason he hit him lower in the lineup was to spite him.
43: Yep, the caller said those guys and the team looked lackluster at times. You know, TW, you’re right about Eckstein. Not the worst idea for 2nd by any stretch if he’s plus defensively there.
A little alarm goes off any time I hear someone say the Pads need a grinder or sparkplug. If he can actually still play the game, then fine. I was tempted to call in and suggest Erstad for CF. Kentera would probably love the Podsednik idea and subsequently credit him for the ChiSox’s WS victory – well along with Blum, of course.
Oops, make that 55, not 43.
I dont think Eckstein would sign a one year deal.
pages 758-759 of Historical Abstract:
“Wilson came to the majors in 1976 as a speed burner whose hitting was suspect. In 1979 Whitey Herzog taught him to swing softly with his wrists, basically just dropping the head of the bat in front of the pitch, and for several years, doing that, he was a highly effective hitter, hitting hundreds of soft popups that settled between the infield and out. …
“Worse yet, in the mid-1980s the Royals hired Lee May as a hitting coach. Lee May legitimized Wilson’s fantasies about being a real hitter, taught him to drive the ball hard to the outfield, so that somebody could run under it and catch it. His batting average dropped 50 points overnight, but Wilson thought it was cool because he was hitting the ball so much harder than he used to.”