I tried to watch some of the USD – Long Beach State game on Sunday at Cunningham Stadium, but it was brutal. These kids haven’t been playing for some time, and it showed. I’ve never seen so many walks and wild pitches.
To the winter leagues…
Friday, November 2
Saguaros 11, Javelinas 5 (box | recap). Matt Antonelli, batting sixth, singled, doubled, and drew three walks in five trips to the plate. Nick Hundley, in the #8 hole, went 2-for-4 with a walk and 3 RBI. The Saguaros pounded out 15 hits on the day. Jonathan Ellis worked a 13-pitch perfect eighth, while Will Startup needed just 10 pitches to close out the victory, allowing a one-out single before inducing a game-ending double play started by Antonelli. Ex-Padre Sean Thompson couldn’t find the plate and took the loss for the Javelinas.- Azucareros 6, Licey 0 (box). Yordany Ramirez batted eighth and went 1-for-3. He played right field in this one to accommodate Felix Pie, whose name has surfaced in rumors involving the Padres. (Incidentally, Kansas City’s David DeJesus is mentioned as another possibility in the linked article. I’ve been tracking him for some time; I think his combination of on-base skills and defense would make him a good fit for Petco Park.)
- Escogido 4, Aguilas 3 (box). Vince Sinisi, batting third and playing left field, hit his second homer of the season. It came off Jose Lima. Geez, how is that guy younger than I am? Ex-Padre Bernie Castro homered for Aguilas; he has two home runs this winter after hitting one all season. A bunch of former Padres in this one: Juan Melo, Freddy Guzman. What the heck is Luis Polonia doing in the Aguilas lineup? He could break a hip or something.
- Mazatlan 5, Navojoa 3 (box). Oscar Robles doubled twice in four at-bats. Luis Cruz, playing third base, went 0-for-3 with a walk. Brian Myrow is playing first base for Mazatlan; why wasn’t I informed? Batting cleanup, Myrow went 2-for-2 with two walks. As he does everywhere, he’s hitting the tar out of the ball (.316/.469/.447). I don’t care if he’s 31 years old; someone should be able to use this guy.
- Mexicali 2, Guasave 1 (box). Jared Wells faced four batters in the eighth — one reached base on an error by the shortstop, and another, former big-leaguer Armando Rios, knocked a two-out single. Wells has been predictably inconsistent for Mexicali this winter.
Saturday, November 3
Surprise 6, Saguaros 5 (box | recap). Antonelli, batting ninth, went 1-for-3 and laid down a sacrifice bunt. Will Venable singled twice in four at-bats out of the cleanup spot; he got the start in left field. John Hudgins started and allowed one run over three innings. He gave up just one hit but walked three batters. This was Hudgins’ second start in 2007. He threw 49 pitches in the first one and 46 more on Saturday. Best to err on the side of caution after such an extended layoff.- Gigantes 4, Escogido 3 (box). Sinisi doubled and walked in five plate appearances.
- Licey 6, Estrellas 3 (box). Ramirez, again in right field, went 2-for-3.
- Mazatlan 6, Navojoa 1 (box). Robles went 1-for-3, Cruz went 1-for-2. On the other side, Myrow went 1-for-4.
- Mexicali 7, Guasave 6 (box). Wells worked an inning and two-thirds, allowing one run on one hit and one walk. He entered with runners at the corners and one out in the eighth, and a 3-0 lead. The first batter Wells faced, former big-leaguer Jolbert Cabrera, knocked both runners home with a double. A passed ball and wild pitch scored Cabrera, tying the game. Wells then walked a batter and allowed a stolen base before getting out of the inning without further damage. He then worked a perfect ninth — two grounders to short and a strikeout (looking). I guess if you’re looking for silver linings, you could point to the fact that Wells bounced back strong in his second inning of work. Eh…
- Caracas 7, Aragua 6 (box). Paul Abraham lived a pitcher’s dream. He entered with two out in the eighth and his team trailing, 6-4. Aragua third baseman Luis Maza was nailed trying to steal second. Caracas then scored three runs in the top of the ninth and won, 7-6, giving Abraham the victory without ever retiring a batter.
Sunday, November 4
- Aguilas 6, Licey 0 (box). More right field for Ramirez: 0-for-3 with a strikeout.
- Escogido 6, Estrellas 6 (box). Sinisi had himself a nice little weekend. He homered in four at-bats on Sunday. Bearing in mind the extremely small sample (40 PA), he’s putting up some solid numbers (.343/.400/.686) in the Dominican. Seriously, what can Terrmel Sledge do that Sinisi can’t? Hopefully it’s not the same thing that kept Paul McAnulty out of a job in ‘07.
- Mazatlan 4, Navojoa 3 (box). Mazatlan completed the weekend sweep at home. Robles went 1-for-4 with a solo homer in a losing cause. Cruz moved up to the #3 spot and started in center field, going 0-for-4. I should mention that technically Cruz is a minor-league free agent, but since he played in the system this year, we’ll keep tracking him. (Same goes for Ramirez in the Dominican Republic and Abraham in Venezuela.)
Tunes: Joe Pass, Billie Holliday, Eric Alexander, Nat Adderly, Walter Blanding, Herbie Hancock, Winard Harper, David Hazeltine, Red Holloway, Wes Montgomery.
134 Comments
The organization better be careful because the average fan won’t be happy with a lower payroll number then last year, even if it comes with a better team.
If they were to deal KG for Rich Hill and Felix Pie(don’t kill the messenger but I’ve seen it mentioned a few places now), sign Clement/Prior for the #5, sign Eckstein for SS ……….we’re talking about a payroll number getting down there close to 50M.
Is there a reason why we need to trade KG
2: Well, he’s an out machine for one.
Well KG is the type of player who is usually over valued as they move through arbitration(high HR, RBI, low BA, zero BB) and the days of KG being cheaper then his production probably ended last season.
They need to either sign KG to a 4 year deal(taking away 2 years of FA) or look to deal him for a package similar to Pie/Hill.
Look at it this way, would you rather have:
-2 years of KG
or
-6 years of Pie and 5 years of Hill?
I think, considering the financial ramifications of the pitching staff over the next 2 seasons that this is an easy call.
being a red sox fan you dont know how lucky you are to have a short stop like KG
5: Being a Padres fan, you don’t know how lucky you are to be a fan of the WS champion.
Im a padres fan also so I guess Ive got the best of both worlds huh huh
Still, trading Khalil opens up a bigger hole than it solves. We have NOTHING in the organization to replace him. Why on earth do you create that kind of hole in your defense if its unecessary?
It still amazes me how underrated Khalil is, even by his own fans. Why on earth do you think over 2/3 of the team in baseball would love to have him?
Here’s a hint: It’s not because he sucks.
1: Although I know what you’re saying, I don’t see any reason why the Padres can’t increase payroll. Even if they think they’ve built a better team with 55m, why not add 10-15m onto that? If it’s spent responsibly, which I trust that it will be with this FO, there’s a good chance that it may push this team over the top (at least into the playoffs for sure, if not further). Of course, like I’ve said before, I can’t see the books.
#1: That’s not going to happen. Some of the comments at MLB Trade Rumors are hilarious — Khalil, Bell, and a prospect for Pie straight up; uh, okay — but I’d be surprised if the Cubs would move Pie and Hill for Khalil.
#3: LOL. Let the religious debate begin.
#4: Who plays shortstop next year? If history is any judge, it will take us about 40 years to find an adequate replacement for Khalil at the position.
#5: As Padres fans, believe me, we’re all too aware how lucky we are to have a shortstop like Khalil.
“The organization better be careful because the average fan won’t be happy with a lower payroll number then last year, even if it comes with a better team.”
Then the average fan can… well… bugger-off. KT/Alderson need to continue to improve the team. They can do it w/ an even smaller payroll, kudos to them.
My guess, however, is that the 2008 Padres will be closer than to $70-75mm mark…
Well not sure if “lucky” would be the word I would use to describe having the 9th best ss in the NL.
Yeah I know he hits HR and plays good D….but that .291 OBP is a DISASTER for the offense
Re 9: The Padres already do spend more than $55 million a year on player salaries; they just do it differently than some teams. The 2006 team ended up paying approximately $70 million to the team’s players and former players who had money owed them. The 2007 team was in the $65-67 million range when all was said and done, and still could owe about $3 million more to Todd Walker through the arbitration grievance procedure.
Their payroll spending seems appropriate for a team in their market size with their financial considerations and with their priorities of bolstering player development and keeping high profile talent in their front office. If you think they should be spending more on major league players, please tell us from where that additional money is going to come.
Of all NL SS:
Khalil ranks sixth in Win Shares with 19. He trails, in order, Ramirez, Rollins, Tulo, Reyes, and Hardy.
Khalil ranks fifth in RZR with .848. He trails, in order, Vizquel, Reyes, Gonzalez, and Tulo.
Khalil ranks 8th in VORP with 23. This puts him in the range of Ryan Zimmerman (23.9), Jason Varitek (23.4), Matt Kemp (23.4), Brian McCann (22.8), Ryan Church (22.2), and Kenji Jhojima (22.2).
As GY points out in 10, Khalil isn’t readily replacable. He’s obviously not the best SS in the baseball, but I think it’s fair to say he’s in the top third of SS. He’s still pretty cheap, and he is a fan favorite. He’s also the best SS the team has ever had.
Not that I am for trading KG but if we did that to get a huy like Pie there are some guys out there we could go after. If the Indians are not done with Barfield they might be willing to move Peralta or Cabrera. The Rangers might be willing to move Young. I still like the idea of going after Brandon Wood from the Angels. Not that any of those guys would be nearly as good at the position other than Young but there are options should they go that route.
Re: 1 if the cubs offer Pie and hill for Greenie you have to take that deal. Also if the club gets past the NLDS with a lower payroll I dont think you will hear any complaints from fans.
Re: 3 NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! dont start the debate again!
Top 10 shortstops in Padres history:
1. Khalil Greene
2. Garry Templeton
3. Tony Fernandez
4. Ozzie Smith
5. Chris Gomez
6. Damian Jackson
7. Enzo Hernandez
8. Bill Almon
9. Ramon Vazquez
10. Hector Torres
It’s disgusting how close Deivi Cruz is to making this list.
Crisp, Lugo and a pitching prospect for KG
RE: 18 how much of Lugo’s contract do the redsox take?
18.
Nope we’re good but thanks!
Unless that pitching prospect is Buchultz (or however you spell that guys name) that trade is how do Boston fans say… RETADDED
3 for 1 and padres get 100% of lugos contract
13: I’ve seen this discussion here before and I’ll admit that you (and many others here) know more about the Padres payroll status than I do … anyway with that out of the way, is that the proper way to look at it? I think you would have to do it like that for every team and see where they fall. If you’ve done that or know where that data is, I’d be interesting in seeing it.
Again, I can’t see the books … I assume they are making money but I don’t know. Spending an extra 5-10M can certainly gain you revenue in the end (like what Nate Silver was talking about in his recent unfiltered post, if you read it). Let’s say with a 65M payroll they project to win ~88 games. Spending an extra, say, 10M and now projecting at ~91 wins may very well be worth it in ensuring (or helping to ensure) a playoff spot instead of being right on the edge (those numbers are of course all made up).
21.
Why would we want 2 players that can’t hit and are going to cost us like what $8-10 miliion more a year?
Re: 21 No way, unless like KRS1 said unless Buchultz or Lester is the pitching prospect.
Lester Buchholz Crisp lugo for Peavy, KG and Headley
RE: 25 now your really starting to sound like a red sox fan
#25: Only if it is Tod Peavy:
http://www.peavyentertainment.com/about.html
Crisp and Lugo will do well away from Boston
re 25: Glad to see 2 WS victories makes Red Sox fans as ignorant of other teams as the Yankees fans have always been.
To get Peavy you’d have to START with: Bucholz and Lester.
Also, if you can read the local paper here, you’re not getting Headley for Crisp
25.
Huh….
My first thought is no but I would have to think about it. CB and Lester would be sick to have coming up but I can’t imagine taking on Lugo and getting rid of Peavy. If I was going to trade Peavy it would probably only be for top prospects and no big contracts from unproductive players coming back.
9: They’re barely spending any more money bolstering player development now than they did in the Dark Old Days. That’s at least a pink herring, if not a bright red one. Still drafting limited players who will sign for slot. They’re even passing on higher upside players who’d sign for slot.
They don’t need to spend more on major league payroll to win…..forever. They may need to spend more for 2008 and 2009 just to stay even. Until they strengthen the farm system enough, for both producing players who will play for us and who can be traded, they’re going to find it hard to fill all the holes in the roster. You can’t trade Headley to fill 3 holes.
28.
What makes you say that? Is it their past performances?
Speaking of the Red Sox: Anybody else sick and tired of hearing about how well they develop players?
Your 2 best hitters were both FA’s and last I checked Papelbon, Youkoulis, Pedroia and Ellsbury although a nice group is not getting you out of 3rd place on their own.
Re 22: I strongly suggest you start with the Forbes reports. Once understood properly, you should see that the Padres usually don’t make money on a yearly basis, and instead are at break even/lose a little operating status. They are apparently okay with that.
It would of course be great if they spent $5-10 million more on player payroll each year. You have yet to indicate where that money will come from. Also, if every other team in the division and/or league does the same, such as if there is a boost in mlb.com revenue of $5 million this year, the marginal value of spending such money should be approximately zero on average.
The Padres are in a division where the Dodgers and Giants have substantially more resources and can and will outspend the Padres substantially. They are also in a division with two teams, Rockies and Diamondbacks, that bring in and spend about the same as they do, but appear to have built their farm systems better. All of that puts the Padres in a very difficult spot competition wise. It is remarkable that they have done as well as they have since moving into Petco, and they should be commended for it.
re 34:
I think a lot of the public’s complaints fall into 1 catagory:
-What responsibility does Moores have to reinvest his real estate company’s(JMI) profits from the ballpark district back into the team?
-Also it is going to help a ton once the current cable deal is done.
Re: 34 & 35 man the Padres financial debates are almost as bad as the KG ones.
arn’t they signed with channel 4 untill 2011?
Crisp’s numbers for Padres in 2008
305 15 75 40sb 390obp
wow 75 RBI’s at petco as a lead off hitter?
forget that those are Antonelli’s numbers sorry
34: I have always given great credit to the Padres management and been rather indifferent about the ownership (because I honestly don’t know much about it). Generally, it’s the baseball moves that I’m concerned about. I’ll look into the forbes reports sometime like you suggest.
So, yeah, I don’t know where the money will come from. Moores pocket maybe? Again, I think the extra money could very well work out as a profit overall. Even if spending goes up across the league, the Padres spending that extra 5-10 million could net them a couple extra wins, and a playoff appearance (and a couple of series wins possibly, although there’s of course a ton of luck there). Also, the Padres (I think) will spend that extra money better than say 90% of teams, so it will indeed benefit them more even if everyone else does it.
I’m not one of those “spend, spend, spend!” fans … I think they just may need to spend a little more to keep up as a couple of you have mentioned. This doesn’t involve the front office at all — they’ve done a great job, imo, regardless of the payroll.
38.
Lay off the sauce pal it’s not even noon you can’t be that drunk already.
also a 390 OBP when his career high is 345? 15 HR’s at petco when he only hit 6 at fenway? wow man dont quite you day job I dont even think the psychic hotline would take you.
its 2:30 here in Boston
21, 25, 28, 38 & 40-
not to be an ass or anythin, but do you know anything about baseball? or do you just know their names and the color of their jerseys?
Been a Red Sox fan for 45 Years I think I know what Im talking about why do you have to be like that
46- those trades were so lopsided towards the red sox….
your gettting lester and Buchholz a starting center fielder and a shortstop for a guy your not going to resign and shortstop you dont want
i like khalil, and lugo is absolutely brutal. he was good for like 1 month at the end of this year. crisp wont get better here….. i just dont see that happening. his defense would be ideal, but we need a guy with more than JUST range
the prizes would be lester and bucholz, but theres no guaruntee with ANY prospect. and they better be ready to toe the slab the second this season starts otherwise our whole team would suffer by the loss of peavy and khalils 20 some homers. peavy is really our ONLY guaruntee for our staff at this point and time. (maddux is old, and young seems to be streaky…and perhaps isnt used to his large frame quite yet)
Re 35: The emotionally satisfying answer is “as much as it takes to make the Padres a WS winner”.
The only rational answer is “none”, unless you think there is some sort of moral imperative for baseball owners to spend from their privately and separately gained revenues for the benefit of their teams. Some owners do do that on occasion; Moores has been one of them. However, there is no legal or logical imperative that he do so.
Fans who complain this way would have a better argument in my opinion if they were to argue the converse – that the Padres should be paying money to JMI; they wouldn’t be in a new stadium downtown if JMI had not agreed to shoulder the risk of the downtown development at a time when no one else stepped up. The City would never have allowed Prop C to go before the voters without a redevelopment district that had private backing.
Ok-we’ll give you Headley and KG for Manny, Paperlbon and Buscholz
You get a starting 3B and starting SS for a LF you don’t want, a AAA SP and a guy who isn’t good enough to stay in either the rotation or the pen…
I like your logic!!! This could be fun with a bunch of other teams as well
re 50: You realize JMI is only developing about 10% of the ballpark district, right?
I’d hardly say they had any significant risk
re:38, plus you wanted our best prospect in return for 2 overpaid underachievers and 2 unproven rookie commodities for our PROVEN top 5 in the MLB starter in Peaves and u want our top rate ss as well….
i mean the ideas are just so off base
I really believe Crisp would do great at Petco.
MLB TradeRumors has their annual top-50 FA list up, along with predicted destinations.
You’ll never guess who we got….
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/2008-top-50-fre.html
re 54:
Very complicated question: WHY?
*please don’t answer with something along the lines of “I just think so because the outfield is big.”
What would you like me to say. Crisp would be staying in Boston but you need to make room for Jacoby Ellsbury.
re 57: Yup, counting on Manny and JD Drew to play every day is always a good idea
57: How about using facts and logic instead of what you “believe.” Crisp is not a good offensive player at all and any player going from Fenway to Petco — their numbers are going to get worse.
Re: 55 if that happens I will not attened any games this year.
Hey Mark what do you think of Antonelli
Antonelli probably isn’t ready yet, but will be a league average 2B by the 2nd half of the year(or early 09) and get better from there
#55: A healthy Freddy Garcia might be handy. Dude used to eat serious innings.
Regarding Crisp, he’s useful in a Jay Payton kind of way. I’d rather see the Pads make a play for DeJesus, who has a similar skill set but with less chance of sucking.
I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Khalil if they got a good return and had a replacement in place. But you don’t want to fill a hole and create another one. Khalil will always be slightly overrated because of his counting stats and he does make tons of outs, however a SS that has 74 extra-base hits (44 2B, 3 3B, 27 HR) is extremely valuable. Plus he’s been so bad at home compared to the road that it’s possible that he can learn to adjust at home. If he doubled his road stats (farfetched I know) his numbers would be 288/322/519 with 58 2B and 30 HR — 88 XBH’s from a good fielding SS would make him one of the players in the league.
The only way I’d trade for Lugo and Crisp is if the Red Sox paid their entire contracts. Otherwise, they are worse than useless because they are league average performers making a lot of money ($9m for Lugo, $4.75m for Crisp). Paying zero for two starters would enable the Padres to actually overpay at another position.
I guess I should phrase my comments on KG by saying if they can fill 2 holes by dealing him(like Rich Hill and Pie) while being relatively certain they can sign Eckstein to a 2 year deal….sounds like a very good idea to me.
Love me a religious debate; all we need is Clayton to check in. Like most here, I presume, I love what Khalil does well and get frustrated by what he doesn’t do so well. My not-quite-Phantomesque-attachment side would be pretty hurt if SD traded him, but I think I’d survive if I thought the trade was part of a makeover that made the team better.
I am worried that the team is headed for decidedly unsexy “buy-low” moves that look questionable until 2008 play proves the FO correct. Why can’t I get excited about Geoff Jenkins (despite the cool spelling of his first name)?
I really cannot imagine a scenario where Bonds lands in San Diego this off-season. Tim Dierkes (who runs MLBTR and made the prediction of him landing here) says he can’t see him with an AL team. I completely disagree. Bonds is a huge liability in LF, and especially in a park like Petco, you need solid defense. Plus, Petco has killed Barry since 2004, and he no longer thrives in San Diego like he did at the Q.
That said, I’m not sure what I would do if the Pads signed him. I already paid for half of my season tickets, so I would probably go to those 20 games. I would still root for the team, but it would be really tough with someone like Bonds there. How do you react if he hits a walkoff to clinch the West? Tough call.
I would root for the team and I would still watch them on TV, I just would not go to a game or buy and merch as long as bonds was on the team.
66: Correction: I meant Coronado Mike (not Clayton). A search would have solved that. Also, not just “buy-low,” but under the radar type moves.
66: I think the negative perceptions of KG cause me to be overzealous in my defense of him. That said, I absolutely love him as a player and I love watching him play for the Padres. I cringe every time he flails at a slider down and away, because I envision Coronado Mike snickering with glee (with apologies, of course, to Coronado Mike
).
I think Khalil gets unfairly knocked for his personality, which is totally bizarre to me. You can’t have a full team of Milton Bradleys and you can’t have a full team of Khalil Greenes. They both bring important elements to the team as a whole.
If the Padres had quote-unquote “traditional production” from the power spots (corner IF, corner OF), Khalil’s out-machine stylings would fly under the radar. Of course, our offense is significantly better than anyone believes (away from Petco, at least), and Khalil suffers the worst home/road splits of any player. When Magadan left in 06, he singled out Khalil as the one person most affected by Petco’s tendencies.
In some ways, I’d love to see him go elsewhere and thrive. If he did that, he probably would be closer to one of the game’s elite palyers. Obviously though, I’d prefer for him to be less effective at Petco, then to only play a few games a year here.
70: That last sentence would be better understood as “Obviously though, I’d prefer for him to be less effective at Petco for 81 games instead of only a few a year.”
I don’t think Bonds is as big as a defensive liability as most people in here seem to believe.
Some interesting numbers, BP has him projected at 8 runs below average defensively next season while hitting .250/.428/.507
We’re still talking about a LF who is going to be at least 2 wins above replacement and who is coming off a year where he was about as valuable as Ryan Howard and Ryan Braun.
If they think the organization can take the PR hit signing Bonds is a no brainer from a baseball perspective.
#72: I wonder if they would permanently shut down the SRO area behind the Padres Store to protect Bonds from hometown fans. If he signs here, I’ll still boo the guy.
73: Agreed. I don’t think it’s possible for Bonds to land in the NL West, given the fact that he’s been a consistent uber-villain for so long. Even when the Padres sucked, you could always take pride in making Bonds get an out.
Last year, when rumors first started coming out related to Bonds, didn’t the FO experience a deluge of complaints from fans? I just spoke to my mom about this, and she said that she would cancel her full season tickets if the Padres ever did something like this. I have a feeling that there are a lot of people who share her sentiment.
Kind of how it is with my feelings about Khalil, baseball isn’t just about the stats. There are intangibles (yikes, that sounds lame) that each player brings, like it or not. Khalil brings a wealth of positive intangibles. Bonds brings nothing but boatloads of animosity, hatred, and scorn.
Urgh. Why are we doing this again? Khalil is a very useful player for the Padres. Until anybody can bring up options that would not weaken the team, I can’t see the team trading him away.
Mark brought up an interesting trade about Rich Hill and Felix Pie. The thing is that option may add another stating pitcher and a possible hitter (Pie hasn’t even a full season in the majors), the hole at SS is going to be bigger than an Eckstein can fill despite his grittiness. Eckstein had been declining, on the DL twice in the last 2 seasons, and his counting stats are not good. I really wouldn’t want to be seeing another 2 months of Silent L at SS.
Why not try getting KG for 3 yrs (thus, buying out his arbitration years and some) with options sans no-trade clause, get Justin Hampson back in shape to start (after all he was a starter for all the time he was in the Rockies organization) based on how he performed last season coming in for CY early in some of CY’s starts and in long relief), and try to get another OF to compete with Scott Hairston for the LF job and/or as 4th OF? Use the money to get a CF, another starter and a possible placeholder for 2B (I’d be alright if the Padres starts next season with Oscar Robles there).
Anybody else heard/read that the Orioles may try to trade Eric Bedard? I can’t imagine this to be true. But if he is, the Padres should try and get him instead of thinking of signing any FA starters.
Please, no Bonds in Padres’ uniform. I don’t know what I’ll do without the Padres but I think I’ll manage to go on without them for a season if Bonds ever were a Padre.
Glad I was able to check in today…Nice to see that my KG discussions have been memorable…but then again, so was the bubonic plague, so I don’t know if that is a good thing.
Re 59: Kevin…Crisp *has* been a good offensive player in the recent past. Look at his numbers pre-Boston. I certainly am not saying he would return to those numbers at Petco, but simply questioning you when you say he “is not a good offensive player at all”.
As far as KG goes, if we could get Hill and Pie, I would not even think twice. Pull the trigger and send a thank you note.
I guess the biggest question I have for guys like Phantom and other KG defenders…Usually you are so rational in your defense or attack of certain players and their numbers, but it so often is overlooked that KG flat out is not a good fit for Petco and the “Stat Heads” defending him have me really baffled. I have read so many statements about other players not being good because their OBP is terrible and then the same people defending our out machine at SS.
If he is so terrible at Petco and so great away from here, as the numbers seem to show, then he is not a good fit for the Pads and should be sent away in a trade before we have to start paying him like the star he ain’t.
On a side note, I would love me some Freddy Garcia…would not cringe if Geoff Jenkins comes here…and there is something sexy picturing Felix Pie playing CF for the Pads.
77: The difference with Greene (from other low obp guys) is that he plays above average defense and he has above average power at short. If Greene was an average fielding left fielder, he whouldn’t be very valuable and there would be less people defending him as a good/very good player.
77/78: I’m with MB. Yeah, his OBP sucks. But given that he has plus power and plus defense at a position where both are hard to find, you forgive a few warts. He frustrates the hell out of all of us sometimes, but the fact remains that it is difficult to find a 25+ HR shortstop who plays good defense all in one package. Headed to take a test right now, so I’m not going to research this yet, but I bet the list of 20 HR shortstops is pretty small…
78: I think you make a great point. Khalil delivers above average defense and abover average power at a premium position that has notoriously been weak within the organization. As you said, if he was an OF with those numbers, he would likely receive much more criticism. But, since he does deliver many positives at a premium position, along with a few negatives, he gets some additional considerations.
76. Bonds is a very interesting case. I know they thought about it last year but decided against it because they feared the fan backlash. I’ve seen at least 2 publications predict he’s coming here this year, so I bet he’s on KT’s radar. Numbers certainly look good, but how much would his D kill us at Petco? I might write about this tonight…
Oh, btw, the Padres vs. the Dodgers today… in this league:
http://www.sportingnews.com/baseball/1986/
re 52: I will take your word for it that JMI is only developing 10% of the ballpark district. I understand that they sold some of their acquired properties to other entities to develop.
Regardless, the significance of the risk is relative to time, not percentage of development. In the 1998 time frame, no one was willing to be obligated to do the ancillary development required by the MOU, no matter how small or large, except for JMI.
It turns out that things worked out far better than expected, and more development occurred than even the most ardent proponents of Prop C claimed would occur. It has brought in more tax revenue than “promised” as well. So, with pure hindsight, it could look like no risk at all and another case where the City might have been taken in, but that is not a proper evaluation method. It still does not follow that JMI should be putting money into the Padres.
79: You ask, and you shall receive. MLB SS with more than 20 HRs and their RF and ZR:
Jimmy Rollins – 30 HR, 4.41 RF, and .824 ZR
Hanley Ramirzez – 29 HR, 4.27 RF, and .786 ZR
Khalil Greene – 27 HR, 4.38 RF, .855 ZR
JJ Hardy – 26 HR, 4 ZR, .797 ZR
Troy Tulowitski – 24 HR, 5.39 RF, .866 ZR
Caros Guillen – 21 HR, 4.29 RF, .807 ZR
Jhonny Peralta – 21 HR, 4.68 RF, .793 ZR
Juan Uribe – 20 HR, 4.74 RF, .828 ZR
I’m as big of a stats-guy as anyone … so this is mostly to poke fun at myself (before someone else beats me to it) … here’s an example of stats not aligning with perception …
BP’s STAT OF THE DAY
Bottom 5 2007 NL Left Fielders, by VORP
Player, Team, EqA, VORP
Ryan Langerhans, ATL, -.087, -9.2
Kory Casto, WAS, -.083, -9.1
Todd Linden, SFN, .139, -5.8
Scott Hairston, ARI, .226, -5.4
Terrmel Sledge, SDN, .239, -4.8
… which says Hairston was worse than Sledge in 2007 … hmmm … I don’t *think* so
77: “…there is something sexy picturing Felix Pie playing CF for the Pads.”
I didn’t think this was that kind of blog…
85: Just in Arizona. As a Padre he was +9.2.
86.
Good call PF!
re 83: Just to be clear JMI(like any development company) is barred by law from profiting from the resale of land in a redevelopment area if public funds are used and no improvements have been done directly to the land.
Basically JMI profits from the real estate that it owns but nothing else: think the Omni, the Metroploitan Condos, Hotel Solamar and the water treatment/power plant in east village…..eventually Ballpark Village is going to be their big cash cow even with its recent redesign
Good reads:
Gibson at Petco
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2007/11/1/195757/719
Best bullpen
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2007/10/18/235757/28
GY, do you think DeJesus’s defense will work at Petco? He’s sort of a tweener offensively, but with a good base skill set. He’s coming off a down year and the Royals are shopping him. Does a Ramos / Geer caliber of prospect get it done?
A quote from Steve Garvey at the Joe Torre PC: “He’s a quality individual. I played against him, always respected him. He should make a difference. God willing, he’ll be able to elevate us to the postseason and help us win a world championship.” — former Dodgers star Steve Garvey.
W T F is his No. 6 doing in CF at Petco?
What are the chances that Adrian Gonzales will work out in the off season with a trainer like the one LT uses? I really believe if he improved his core conditioning he would be an elite (top 10) level player. While he is very good now, great hands, but he is a little soft, will he follow TG and gain 5 lbs a year and shorten his career?
#90: Thanks for the links.
#91: I haven’t seen him play, but the defensive numbers, inasmuch as we can trust those, are not discouraging.
In a post I’ve been sitting on for, like, a month because I can’t figure out how best to organize it, I found a few things about DeJesus:
– He had a .910 RZR in ‘07, tied with Melky Cabrera for fourth in MLB among CF qualifiers (behind Andruw, Granderson, Beltran)
– He was tied with Crisp four fourth in UZR, behind Sizemore, Granderson, and Rowand.
– Using good ol’ fashioned RF, he was about middle of the pack in ‘07, behind Beltran and just ahead of Torii Hunter/Andruw.
From an offensive standpoint, it’s my belief that the Padres can most afford to sacrifice power (they were second in MLB in road homers last year) and least afford to sacrifice OBP (only the D’backs and White Sox were worse in ‘07), which aligns well with DeJesus’ skill set.
Here’s my little writeup from that post (which I may get around to publishing one day):
I don’t think the guy is a stud, but I think he’d be a good fit for this club in this park. If we could get him for Ramos or Geer, I’d say we should jump all over it.
Buster Olney has a “Maddux, Padres agree to $10M deal, sources say” brief on ESPN.com.
so you guys are saying Ramos or Geer for DeJesus? I was talking to a Royals fan today — they’ve got nothing behind DeJesus in CF (only Gathright).
I mean, from a Pads standpoint, I’m all over that, but do you really think that’s enough?
#96: Well… it probably shouldn’t be enough. Then again, I’d probably give both to get him.
By the way, in response to all the red sox guy’s posts about dumping lugo and crisp on us:
Any trade involving KG should not have the centerpieces be Lugo and/or Crisp. It should start with Buchholz or John Lester, THEN talk about throw-in turds.
I’ve had the pleasure of seeing Lugo all year — he’s terrible. That .240 he hit would be .185 at Petco. Crisp was wonderful defensively this year but he absolutely sucked offensively all of last year, and the first two months of ‘07.
97
Both, yes. I’d do that. What about something like Ramos/Venable for DeJesus? That might be a little too much, but I’m falling in love with DeJesus’s OBP right now.
He also scored 101 times for a crappy team.
94: Excellent argument, Geoff. You’ve convinced me. According to Cot’s, he’s signed through 2010 for $10.8 million, with a $6 million team option for 2011.
I wouldn’t mind Gathright either. I don’t know what happened to him, but he really turned it around last year in a part-time role – sporting a nifty 307/371/342 line and playing solid D in LF. He was primarily a CF the previous three years.
#100: Thanks, Ben. Thanks also to TW for guilting me into finishing this post. There’s a lot of ground to cover, and as I’ve said before, I’m having a heckuva time organizing my thoughts. I really hate this question, which means it’s probably worth pursuing.
Expect more thoughts on the CF issue tomorrow, and probably even more on Wednesday. Then Thursday we’re totally shifting gears because I’ve got a sweet interview (hint: it’s not entirely about baseball) that I’ve been working on for the past couple weeks — it’s a five parter, oh yeah.
More coffee, please…
77: I guess I meant now. Plus I didn’t look it up.
92: Just like there is enough bashing of Greene, there is enough bashing of Garvey. Would you rather he not have led the Padres to their first World Series.
With 24 more wins (two seasons at the rate he is going), Maddux would be third all time in wins with 374.
“The Padres win the pennant, the Padres win the pennant”…..”Barry Bonds has hit one out of Petco and the Padres will win the National League on a monumental blast ….and listen to the Padres fans boo….a sparse crowd voices their displeasure (sparse because Bonds is a Padre and many have boycotted the team) and boo’s loudly because it was Bonds who won the Padres the pennant”……Boo….Boo…….
Yeah right. Bring in Bond’s and all this hatred will subside if the guy performs.
92 … DON’T GET ME STARTED!!!
Actually, thanks for this info … if I ever get off my butt and do something, this will be added fuel / evidence … Steve Garvey is NOT my Padre …
btw, what does “Joe Torre PC” mean? … and do you have a link to this quote?
103 … there can never be enough Garvey-bashing … hey, I respect what he did on the field for the Padres … and I certainly respect what he did on the field for the Dodgers … he just didn’t do nearly enough to earn his number to be on OUR wall for ever! The 1984 NL Pennant is flying … and when anyone thinks about that, a key part of that is what Garvey did in Game 4 of the NLCS … that’s enough of a legacy …
106: Joe Torre press conference. It was an Associated Press “Reaction to Torre press conference” sidebar that moved today (sorry for the newspaper jargon). It had quotes from various Dodgers-affiliated folks.
I think the PC stands for press conference.
PC=Press Conference
Speaking of Garvey, what year did they retire his number? I remember the #6 being on the wall in the Murph, but don’t exactly remember when they actually retired his number.
What should Garvey be ripped for a decision made by the franchise?
Pick your battles.
According to Baseball-fever.com: “Garvey was the first to have his number retired in 1989. Next came Randy Jones in 1997. Then Dave Winfield on April 14, 2001, and finally Tony Gwynn on August 13th, 2002.”
103
I’m with you — he hit the homer, and that’s his legacy right there.
Was that the most awesome thing ever, or what?
Right. I’m not saying his number should be retired. But does anyone really think a team is going to reverse such a thing?
To me, it’s more distressing that Joe Torre gets to wear his No. 6.
115
Yeah, that’s a little weird, but whatever. It’s the Doggers.
111: His number wasn’t really retired till the Petco move. They had hung his jersey on the wall where his HR hit at the Murph, and when Moores bought the team he thought it was retired, so that’s the way it stayed. Or so the legend goes…
I think his number should be retired btw.
I’ll have to check the old media guides. I think they listed it as a retired number. But I’m not at home right now.
I’m not sure how accurate that story is, I heard it on Leitner one day when he still had a radio show.
96: A lot of baseball sites say DeJesus is available. The Royals think Gathright is a legitimate CF, they don’t see him as a step down from DeJesus.
99: I’d do Venable + Ramos or Geer. Venable’s realistic offensive upside would seem to be DeJesus, with DeJesus a better defender. 17 million for 4 years is rock-solid, too.
I wondered about whether it was retired back in the Qualcomm days. I thought the number might have been in the outfield to commemorate where the home run was hit. But again, not sure.
120
Alright then, let’s just call Dayton Moore and get it done.
Making a trade for Dejesus makes a lot of sense for the Padres. I would love to see that guy in center next year.
120. I don’t know if I’d give up that much for DeJesus. I know his numbers are good, but he just doesn’t impress me as a difference-maker in center. Were the price a little lower, it would probably be a decent deal, but I think there are better options available around the same price. If we’re going the cheap and young route (which is probably the smart thing) I would prefer T. Gwynn Jr., but there are definitely emotions coloring that viewpoint.
120: Ramos and Geer are most likely both future swingmen or relievers, if they can even survive the majors. Pitchers with such low K rates just don’t have any history of success. We’ll be lucky if Venable is ever as good as DeJesus.
If any of those players had a lot of perceived value in trade – like other teams really thought highly of them – then it might not be smart to use them for DeJesus. But that’s not the case. The pitchers are short on stuff, so traditional scouting doesn’t value them, and they don’t have good predictive stats, so more sabremetrically-inclined teams don’t see much. Venable doesn’t have outstanding tools or numbers, either, and not many people seem to think he can play CF.
What better options for that price do you see? Gwynn Jr. isn’t better than DeJesus. He might be as good as DeJesus sometime, but we’d be trading for the latter right in his prime. That helps the 2008-2011 teams.
125: That’s the second time today I’ve replied to the post that the post I meant to reply to was itself replying to. Sorry. Meant 124.
126: that is one hellova sentence you got there!
retired numbers:
baseball-almanac.com has the same history as comment 113
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/feats/feats10n.shtml
Also, here is a discussion thread from 2003 in which Pat tells of then owner Joan Kroc having her own reasons for retiring Gavey’s number:
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/03/a-tale-of-three-padres.html
OK, just looked at some of the assorted media guides I have:
No mention of retired numbers in the 1991, 1994, 1996 or 1997 guides, puncturing the theory of Garvey’s being retired in 1989.
Then in the 1998 guide, on page 173, it says:
“The Padres retired a pair of numbers in 1997, as they honored 1976 Cy Young Award winner Randy Jones (#35) and joined all of baseball in celebrating the contributions of Brooklyn Dodgers Hall of Famer Jackie Robinson (#42), who broke Major League Baseball’s color barrier in 1947.”
then three paragraphs on Jones’ career …
“Also the number 6 worn by Steve Garvey is emblazoned on the outer outfield wall in right-center field at Qualcomm Stadium, a tribute to Garvey’s 9th-inning home run to beat the Cubs in game 4 of the 1984 N.L.C.S. The 2-out blow off Lee Smith set up a decisive 5th game, which the Padres won to advance to the only World Series in franchise history.”
OK, this is interesting.
It certainly does not say Garvey’s number is retired.
But if the number is not retired, why mention it at all and why put this in a box labeled “PADRES RETIRED NUMBERS”?
It’s almost as if the franchise or whoever was assembling the media guide did not know the answer either and was playing it safe.
129: That actually supports what I posted earlier about what Leitner said on his radio show awhile back, that the number was sort of accidently retired.
On Garvey’s site he claims it was retired April 18, 1988, which looking at b-r shows that was an away game…
#130: This is my understanding as well. The situation is a bit awkward, to say the least, and one that I doubt ever gets resolved in a satisfactory manner.
I guess there are two options…
1. Leave it as it is…most Padres fans are oblivious. Only a small minority really care about it and we will just simmer and not be happy. Probably telling our grandkids about the horrible injustice of having “his” number retired.
2. Take it down…making a few of us happy, many more confused, and being in the national news for a day. Me thinks Garvey won’t care.
——————–
In a related side note, my GF brought home an autographed Steve Garvey baseball 2 nights ago. He had come to speak at her company’s retreat. After I told her a bit about him, she looked him up, and decided that she could not support such a “slime ball” by having his autograph on her desk. “Add it to your collection or blow it up…I don’t care. Just don’t display it around me” she said.
#132: I think the issue is less whether Garvey would care and more how such a move would reflect on the organization. There are already problems of perception with the current ownership group.
Regardless of whether it’s justified, removing a token of team and civic pride that occurred under previous owners probably wouldn’t be well received by most fans.
As embarrassing as it is to have Garvey’s number retired (yes, I’m in that camp), it would be worse, IMHO, to unretire it at this point.
I don’t advocate taking it down…please don’t read into #2…I could see how it would sound that way.
I agree with you…the few of us that really care just need to sit tight and get really good at sounding put off when we talk about it.