Slow News Day
Tue, Oct 30, 2007
by Geoff Young
Between working on the book and transcribing an interview I did last week (which I think you’ll enjoy), I’m a little short on time. That and there isn’t much going on right now.
I wish the list of six-year minor-league free agents would be released. I always like digging around for potential bargains. Probably says more about me than it does about anything else, but there it is.
So, I dunno. What’d you have for dinner last night? I had spaghetti with meatballs. Mmmm…
Winter Leagues
- Mesa 13, Saguaros 12 (box | recap). What a goofy finish. This was a 2-2 tie headed to the seventh. The Saguaros scored five in the top of the ninth to take a 12-6 lead, then coughed up seven in the bottom half. Yeah, who’s your closer now? Anyway, Will Venable doubled and struck out twice in six at-bats. He played left field and batted cleanup again. Still seems weird to me that he’s in the #4 hole everyday, but whatever. Nick Hundley, batting eighth, doubled, singled, and walked in five trips to the plate. He also drove in three runs for those who care about such things. Probably the most encouraging news is that John Hudgins made his first start of 2007, allowing two first-inning walks and a ground ball single in the second. He threw 49 pitches, 29 for strikes, over three scoreless innings. Hudgins is coming off essentially a lost season, but I wonder if he might be a dark-horse candidate for that #5 spot in ‘08?
The Caribbean leagues all took Monday off. Slackers…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 30, 2007 at 7:48 am
I like Hudgins a lot. I think if he gets a good first half under his belt he’d help in the second half. He seemed to really be turning the corner in 2006.
October 30, 2007 at 7:53 am
Leftover Turkey, and Potato Casserole, then we got frozen yogurt mmmm…
October 30, 2007 at 8:08 am
I love minor league/winter league baseball… 2-2 after six, and it ends 13-12… awesome!
I had as good a time at a Lake Elsinore game this year as I did watching any game featuring an NL Central team…… Then again, unless the Padres were playing, I don’t think I could stand more than an inning of an NL Central team’s game.
October 30, 2007 at 8:33 am
Really the Mets are considering B(l)um as their starting 2B job.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ru.....=mlb,51215
I mean if Blum leaves the Padres who will Black look to in the late innings to strikeout or ground into a double play in key situations, I mean he’s like the other end of Cla.
October 30, 2007 at 9:00 am
Here’s the next article from my Mission October simulation.
Padres 9, Rockies 8 in 15 innings!
http://blog.dereksnyder.net/20.....redux.aspx
October 30, 2007 at 10:09 am
5 … nice, Derek … great idea … fun … but pretty unrealistic … I mean, you lost me as soon as B(l)um made an out in the 14th inning … just not gonna happen!
October 30, 2007 at 10:24 am
5,6 - yeah seriously man, what is it gonna take for you to throw out all your fancy “math” and get on Team Blum! The man is clutchness personified, especially in 14th innings!
October 30, 2007 at 10:31 am
Anyone for a Damon Easley/Geoff Blum platoon at second base until Antonelli is ready mid season 2008 or beginning of 2009 ?
October 30, 2007 at 10:34 am
Yes, Mrs Blum and Mrs Easley would be all for it.
October 30, 2007 at 10:37 am
Completely hypothetical situation. What if we could afford A-Rod? What is John Moores came out and said, “You know what, this guy is worth it. It’s an investment in the future.”
If John Moores agreed to open up the coffers for Rodriguez, what would everyone be comfortable with in terms of contract and length? I know this is a completely hypothetical exercise, but would you be comfortable going more than 5 years? What if the Padres offered something unbelievable like 5 years/$135 million?
I have to think that Rodriguez would significantly boost attendance and merchandise sales at the ballpark. By the time his contract is dwindling down, he’d be tracking down Bonds. An A-Rod type player would also most likely give the Padres enhanced bargaining power for their next media deal.
So, compeltely hypothetical (yet realistic in terms of what A-Rod would accept), what would people offer him to be a Padre? Management shares? Length of contract?
October 30, 2007 at 10:49 am
5 years 135? In order to offer a contract that “short”, it would have to be more like 5 years $175 million. My bet is, some fool is going to pay 10 years $300 million.
October 30, 2007 at 11:06 am
10: I think it’s going to take more than that to get A Rod. 8 years/$200 million, maybe even more than $25M a year? I think the Padres are locked in to a long term deal with Cox/Channel 4 so the TV revenues won’t go up unless they can renegotiate. The ratings would certainly go up throughout the region, A Rod might help them make a dent in the OC demographic too. Would the increased attendance and visibility result in increased revenues and allow a higher payroll?
Assume an $80M payroll. Could KT fill out the rest of the roster for $55M? Don’t forget Jake will either get a substantial raise or be gone. Say we pony up $15M for Jake, that’s $40M tied up in two players, half your payroll.
ARod is like a Mercedes or BMW. Expensive but worth every penny if you can afford him. Are the Padres looking to upgrade from the Honda Accord they’ve been driving for years?
October 30, 2007 at 11:11 am
11: Yikes, I meant 5 years/$175. My bad.
12: I would be really curious to see what the anticipated economic effect of A-Rod on the team’s ancilliary revenues might be.
October 30, 2007 at 11:23 am
8: Not me.
9: Good one.
A possible buy-low solution to 2b, depending on if the Giants would trade with us: Ray Durham. He was awful last year, but from 98 to 2006 he averaged above an 800 OPS. In 2006 it was 898, in a rough home park. Try to get a little money thrown in, or take him full price and give SF a nobody to be named later. Sub-par defender, but most of the one-year stopgaps would be.
October 30, 2007 at 11:24 am
I’m not certain ARod will get 10+ years like he/they want, but he’ll get at least 8 and at least $27-8 per ($216-224mm total value)…
If I’m Towers/Alderson and I want to bid on ARod, I’d do something like 8 years, at $26.5mm per year with a $20mm signing bonus and post-year 4 out clause (total: $232 - 4 year investment: $126mm)…
October 30, 2007 at 11:30 am
14: Part of the Padres success over the last 3 years is their defense. BP’s Team Defense Efficiency ranks the Padres 5th at 70.6% conversion rate… Durham would kill that.
http://www.baseballprospectus......cid=204024
I’m having lots of trouble figuring out what the Padres should/will do at both CF & 2B…
As much as I love Antonelli (and I think he’ll become a prenniel All Star 2B), I think he needs another half or full season of development… Is Blum capable of not sucking offensively to handle 200 ABs until Antonelli can step in? I don’t know…
October 30, 2007 at 11:35 am
6/7 - I fully expected Blum to go yard once he was up in that situation as well!
October 30, 2007 at 11:45 am
16: And part of the reason they haven’t won more is a lack of production from 2b. Their defense at 2b this season was far outweighed by the limp noodles. Durham would hurt that, but most one-year stopgaps (Loretta, Easley, etc) are going to hurt. Durham’s got the most upside with the bat.
Because he’s getting up there, you could sub him out on days when Maddux pitches. Jake and Young don’t need such strong defense.
Anybody can get hot for 200 at-bats, Blum included, but it’s not a good bet. If you’re worried about defensive efficiency, is Blum really helpful? His defensive stats are hard to read because he’s a part-timer; last year he rated as a very good defensive SS, this year he was a bottom-feeder, and my eyes tell me he lacked range both years.
October 30, 2007 at 11:54 am
18 - well argued… Again, I can’t get a handle on what I think they should do… You don’t want to spend a ton of money on a stop-gap, but you don’t want to hand the position to someone (even the heir-apparent) before they’re ready. But you also don’t want a lack of production to cost another playoff - another good point TW, M. Giles probably cost us the playoffs…
October 30, 2007 at 12:01 pm
#19: M. Giles probably cost us the playoffs? Michael Barrett, Jose Cruz Jr., Clay Hensley, and David Wells humbly ask you to reconsider.
October 30, 2007 at 12:04 pm
19: I’d rather spend 7.5 million elsewhere, but I don’t see any FA pitcher who is worth it. Not sure if SF is motivated to sell anybody, either.
If they have that money earmarked to acquire Burnett and pay him 12m, then we can run a lot of different 2b out there and I won’t mind. The team would seem to have the financial wherewithal to pay both Burnett (assuming we can trade for him) and Wolf. Do that and the list of acceptable CF and 2b gets a lot bigger.
October 30, 2007 at 12:06 pm
20: Put Sledge in there too. It’s the Dirty Half Dozen.
October 30, 2007 at 12:58 pm
Yeah! The Astros resigned Brad Ausmus.
October 30, 2007 at 1:15 pm
23: Thank you, Houston.
October 30, 2007 at 1:23 pm
MLBTR suggests that Josh Towers may be non-tendered and would be a prime candidate to be picked up as a Padre. Here’s a basic run down of his ‘06, ‘07, and career numbers:
ERA
07: 5.38
06: 8.42 (62 IP)
Career: 4.96
WHIP
07: 1.41
06: 1.78
Career: 1.38
K/9
07: 6.39
06: 5.08
Career: 4.8
K/BB
07: 2.06
06: 3.46
Career: 3.17
HR/9
07: 1.51
06: 2.47
Career: 1.51
Some of those numbers look pretty ghastly, but it seems that ‘06 was definitely an outlier for him. In 45 more innings in 2007, Towers gave up 1 more HR than he did in 2006. Was he hurt in ‘06? He’s got a low IP and his numbers suck out of control.
Anywho, I’m not that familiar with him, so I thought I would ask here. Is he a good buy-low guy? What would it cost?
October 30, 2007 at 1:24 pm
25: Link: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....tain-.html
October 30, 2007 at 2:33 pm
25, 26: Most of his career he’s been about as good as Germano was this year. I’m not a big Tomko believer, but there’s more There there.
Of course there’s a very real possibility that BOTH the 4th and 5th spots go to the Towers/Tomko types. In which case, blech.
October 30, 2007 at 2:42 pm
Anyone out there makin’ a run for their “free taco”? It’s time …
October 30, 2007 at 3:40 pm
28 … I will say this … if Corvallis, OR, baseball-home of Jacoby Ellsbury, is any indication, the Taco Bell promotion is *working*! The place was packed and cars were backed up onto the street waiting to go thru the drive-thru. It feels like an October tradition
October 30, 2007 at 3:45 pm
29: Free is still a high price to pay for gastric distress. People are actually waiting in line for that? Do they have a lot of unemployment up there or something?
October 30, 2007 at 3:45 pm
My nephew Mike Ekstrom went to college with Ellsbury. Supposedly a nice guy.. So I got that goin for me….which is nice.
October 30, 2007 at 3:59 pm
28 - yeah, my daughter and I went for the free Taco! Thanks Ellsbury!
October 30, 2007 at 4:09 pm
16, 18, 19… The Antonelli situation is the same as Khalil Greene in ‘03 and ‘04. Give him a chance in spring training but have an inexpensive veteran there just in case (see Ordonez, Rey) but root like heck for Antonelit to win the job.
I don’t know how much closer Antonelli is than Greene was at this time but Antoneli would give us a lot of flexibility in payroll since he’ll be making pennies.
October 30, 2007 at 4:17 pm
Luis Castillo is listed as an FA by SI. He’s not going to bring a lot of offense, but he’s not likely to be as bad as what we ran out there this year. He’s probably a bit young for a one year deal, but if we could get him for 2 plus a buyout 3, it could give us some insurance for Antonelli to develop at his leisure.
Thoughts?
October 30, 2007 at 4:25 pm
#30: Well said. BTW, if there’s a way for me to transfer my free “taco” to someone who wants it, I’ll gladly do so.
#33: Khalil had ~340 PA at Triple-A under his belt before he got the call.
#34: Castillo isn’t a bad idea. His defensive range numbers appear to be in decline, and he doesn’t run like he used to, be he still gets on base. He’d be no worse at the top of the order than Dave Roberts was. I could live with that.
October 30, 2007 at 5:00 pm
30 … dirth of “real taco”s up here, I s’pose … 1 taco didn’t distress me any …
31 … Ek is a Beav! http://www.thebaseballcube.com.....trom.shtml
35 … ~340 PAs at AAA seems like a *huge* difference … one edge that Khalil had was he played a 4th year in college …
October 30, 2007 at 5:42 pm
Nate Silver ranks every team’s shot at A-Rod and comes to the disturbing conclusion that the Dodgers have the second best chance at signing him (behind the Angels). He ranks the Padres 13th, which seems way, way high. He says the Padres are much stingier about payroll than generally acknowledged, but I think he’s underestimating the extent of the stinginess.
http://www.baseballprospectus......red/?p=651
October 30, 2007 at 5:46 pm
Free Taco, got it, enjoyed it. Yup. Thanks, Ellsbury. It’s been three years since I’ve tasted Taco Bell tacos. Still, not bad. Just don’t overload.
Castillo at 2B sounds good to me. Silent L be gone.
Braves just traded Renteria to the Tigers. Must be nice to have another SS to come in and play.
October 30, 2007 at 5:48 pm
Ray Lankford and I have a new Padres site called The Sacrifice Bunt. It revolves around comprehensive statistical analysis, and wit without humility. We are long time Padres fans and hope you drop by to comment!
Thanks!
ps I hope it’s cool with Geoff to leave the info.
October 30, 2007 at 6:05 pm
33, Do you mean like the Kooz situation in 07? It sure would have been nice to see him get a few of those April and May ABs in AAA.
October 30, 2007 at 6:11 pm
Idle trade thought: Would you guys trade Kouzmanoff for Ellsbury? Headley would step in at 3B and Ellsbury would be a perfect fit as the leadoff hitter/CF. I’m sure Boston would prefer to trade Coco Crisp but if Lowell leaves they’ll need a 3B.
October 30, 2007 at 6:17 pm
Re: 41 I dont think Boston would do Kouz for Ellsbury, but I would.
October 30, 2007 at 6:21 pm
Would you sign Piazza or Kendall as a semi-regular backstop behind Bard ?
October 30, 2007 at 6:31 pm
42: Really? I think Kouz has more upside offensively.
43: No and no. I’d be looking for a strong defensive catcher. No idea who that is though…
October 30, 2007 at 6:48 pm
I’m assuming Ellsbury is Boston’s everyday CF now, I doubt he’s going anywhere. But I would like Crisp to patrol CF until one of our kids are ready… An outfield of Milton Bradley and Coco Crisp.. there’s gotta be one more funny name out there for us to complete the all-laugh outfield.
October 30, 2007 at 7:29 pm
40: May was one of Kouzy’s better months.
October 30, 2007 at 7:30 pm
Kouz may have more power but Ellssury is a better base runner and is a good defender at a premium position. Plus they have Headly to play 3B.
October 30, 2007 at 9:40 pm
43: Why would anyone sign Kendall to back up anything? .242/.301/.309 in a full season last year with the Athletics and Cubs.
34: Castillo brought enough offense last season: .301/.362/.359 with the Twins and Mets.
I wouldn’t mind Castillo/Antonelli next season. And if Castillo has to play the full season, so be it.
October 31, 2007 at 12:05 am
47: The Sox won’t be trading Ellsbury for a third base prospect regardless.
October 31, 2007 at 3:54 am
According to the U-T, Barrett and Bradley got class A designation as free agents, while Brocail and Cameron got B’s. That’s unfortunate that Cameron got a B and not an A and really illustrates the obvious flaws in a ranking that doesn’t take park or defense into account.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....et_as.html
October 31, 2007 at 7:05 am
Wow Cameron got a B?
October 31, 2007 at 7:19 am
Mike Cameron is on XX saying he’s been suspended for 25 games for a banned stimulant. Bad timing.
October 31, 2007 at 7:19 am
Do you guys think the Pads will offer Bradley arbitration? If he accepts they will have to pay him around $4 mil next season which is a gamble because who knows when he will be ready.
October 31, 2007 at 7:20 am
Re: 52 ouch, ha maybe the Pads would be able to get him to sign a 1 year deal with an option now.
October 31, 2007 at 7:23 am
52: Wow…that’s too bad. I still doubt that it will drastically effect his FA value. He’s still a guy that we certainly offer arbitration too IMHO. Bradley and Barrett probably don’t get the offer.
October 31, 2007 at 7:27 am
Schilling lists Padres as one of the 12 teams he would Consider playing for.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....names.html
October 31, 2007 at 7:47 am
Following up on Cameron, he said that they tested everything he had in his house, but couldn’t find what it was. He said if the Padres would have made the playoffs he’d have been inelligible. He also acknowledged that he will take a hit in FA since he loses the 1st 25 games. He also said he wanted to break the news so that he thought it would be the best way to handle it.
October 31, 2007 at 8:17 am
So Cameron tested positive for something he said he never took and MLB can’t find anything at his house which is tainted? Sounds like he may have gotten rid of the evidence, I like Cameron but what other conclusion can we draw?
October 31, 2007 at 8:24 am
Really interesting that he got popped for amphetamines. Horrible timing.
October 31, 2007 at 9:29 am
Another name for the CF carousel: Luke Scott of Houston. The Astros have already talked to the agents for Hunter and Rowand (see link).
Scott is no youngster (he’ll be 30 next year), but he has a career 882 major league OPS. Away from Houston it’s 893. His minor league OPS is 900. If we go to more accurate numbers, his career EQA is 294. He’s barely played center in the majors, but he did in the minors, and even if he’s not adequate there he’d be a good bat for RF.
He’s still pre-arb and might be at the start of 2009, because he’s only accumulated a season and a half of service time at the major league level.
http://tinyurl.com/2vmeaq
October 31, 2007 at 9:47 am
Re: 60 what do you think the astros would want for him?
October 31, 2007 at 9:51 am
61: Don’t know. If they sign one of those two, they move Pence to RF, have Lee in LF, and his price might go down - Kevin Cameron reliever / Josh Geer territory. If they don’t sign a FA centerfielder, then Pence stays put and Scott might be penciled in for right, which would make the price higher.