Friday Links (2 Nov 07)
Fri, Nov 2, 2007
by Geoff Young
Hey, look, it’s links…
- A nod to good management and a nudge to spend more (Friar Forecast). MB gives the Padres front office staff props for procuring good talent on a small budget, but would like to see what they could do with more money.
- ‘Tainted supplement’ excuse outmoded (San Diego Union-Tribune). I love Victor Conte’s quote:
This isn’t drug testing, this is IQ testing. All you have to do is look at the list and find one of the 30 that’s not on the list and use that. This guy (Cameron) didn’t fail a drug test. He failed an IQ test.
Man, that’s harsh. It’s funny, but it’s harsh.
- Needs and Luxuries: San Diego Padres (MLB Trade Rumors, via Steve C in the comments). Quick reset of where the Padres are now and what their winter priorities should be.
- Derek is proceeding as though Matt Holliday was called out at the plate and has replayed the rest of Game #163.
- NL West Hot Stove Preview (SI.com, via KRS1 in the comments). Nate Silver examines what the NL West teams should and will do this winter. I pretty much agree with his assessments. Nate does a great job of distilling the Dodgers’ problems into a single sentence: “There is no bigger disconnect in baseball than the Dodgers’ ability to develop talent and the front office’s lack of appreciation for that talent.” As long as that disconnect continues to exist, I’ll be happy. Ned Colletti for president!
- Why Is Torre Managing the Dodgers? (Knuckle Curve). Speaking of the Dodgers, the more I think about the Joe Torre hiring, the less sense it makes to me. Not that I’m complaining, of course…
- Jays To Retain Stairs, Cut Towers? (MLB Trade Rumors, via Phantom in the comments). Josh Towers? Eh. The Padres have similar options that are already under contract.
- The Elias rankings are out and available at USA Today (NL | AL). What do I think of the system? Michael Barrett is a Type A free agent; Mike Cameron is Type B. Systems don’t get much more broken than that. And I hope the Padres resist the temptation to offer Barrett arbitration.
- A-Rod Survivor (Baseball Prospectus, via Ben B. in the comments). Nate Silver thinks that Alex Rodriguez is coming to California, but probably not San Diego. Might I suggest the Angels?
- Top 10 A-Rod destinations (Yahoo! Sports, via LynchMob in the comments). Hey, look, Jeff Passan has the same teams at the top of his list of potential suitors for Rodriguez.
- Astros interested in Hunter, Rowand (MLB.com, via Tom Waits in the comments). Houston is looking to upgrade in center, which Tom suggests might make Luke Scott available. Of the names I’ve heard so far, he and Ryan Church interest me most. Given the free-agent market for center fielders, and assuming the Padres don’t re-sign Cameron, I wonder if a trade might make more sense?
- “Moneyball” Will Never Win In October (Sacrifice Bunt). Sweet, there’s a new blog in town. C’mon, folks; we need more Padres blogs. This entry contains a simple truth that never goes out of style:
I think it’s human nature to to look for evidence that agrees with your conclusion instead of creating a conclusion based on evidence.
Amen, brother Melvin. And thanks for all the strikeouts; I’m still enjoying the breeze.
- What happened to Josh Barfield? (Hardball Times). Pimpin’ my own stuff.
Winter Leagues
- Team USA 3, Saguaros 0 (box | recap). Will Venable, batting cleanup and playing right field, went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Matt Antonelli was back at second base and singled in three at-bats.
- Navojoa 9, Guasave 7 (box). Oscar Robles went 1-for-3 with a walk. Luis Cruz went a bit nuts — triple, homer, two walks in five trips to the plate.
That’s all I’ve got. Happy Friday…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
November 2, 2007 at 8:51 am
Two more links:
Padres will not pick up Mackowiak’s option.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3090647
Looks like Meachum is going to the Evil Empire.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....meron.html
November 2, 2007 at 9:03 am
Hey G.Y. did my post get caught in the spam filter?
November 2, 2007 at 9:31 am
#2: Indeed, it did. Stupid spam filter.
Thanks much for the reminder about Mackowiak. This is excellent news.
Bummer about Meacham, but he’s a Yankee first, so it’s hardly surprising. Not like it’s hard to find first-base coaches either.
November 2, 2007 at 9:39 am
Its not like the Yankee’s treated him all that well while he was there, he was up and down so much he makes mike thompson look like a regular.
November 2, 2007 at 9:42 am
Wasn’t he a teammate of Girardi? Makes sense that he would go back.
Does anyone else think the Girardi hire is going to be a disaster? He had one good year in Florida but clashed with the owner. Now he’s going to get along with the Steinbrenner brood?
November 2, 2007 at 9:44 am
5: I think some of the Yankees players could use a good ass-chewing. I’m fairly positive that Girardi will dutifully oblige.
November 2, 2007 at 10:24 am
I think Girardi will work fine there, the players in Florida liked him a lot and that counts for a lot more then making nice with the owner. The Yankees are going to have a young pitching staff for a while so it seems like a decent fit.
Torre in LA is going to be a lot more interesting, there was a real good article on ESPN.com from Jay Adande….my favorite line and something most of us who have lived in southern California(note we don’t call ourselves SoCal no matter how much the networks and MTV tries)
“The actions of McCourt just reaffirm a little secret about Los Angeles: all of the behavior that gives this city a bad name comes from people who move here, not the folks who are from here. As soon as the plane lands, the new residents throw on the sunglasses, find a hairstylist and start trying to fit in. McCourt, a Bostonian, just bought the flashiest car on the lot and is ready to show off. He might even accessorize with A-Rod.”
Maybe a little overblown…but funny to see a west coast perspective on ESPN….finally
November 2, 2007 at 10:34 am
#4: Huh? He was the starting shortstop in ‘84 and ‘85:
http://www.baseball-reference......bo01.shtml
Problem is, he couldn’t hit a lick. If you’re not Ozzie Smith, you don’t get a chance to learn how.
November 2, 2007 at 10:49 am
Re: 8 84 he played 54 games in the minors and 99 games for the yanks.
85 was the only year our of his 10 year career that he spent the whole season in NY.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com.....cham.shtml
November 2, 2007 at 11:28 am
I say SoCal. Thought I coined the term.
November 2, 2007 at 11:30 am
#9: Right, but he wasn’t very good. I’m not sure what kind of gripe he could have about his treatment. He simply wasn’t good enough to hold onto the job.
November 2, 2007 at 11:41 am
Re: 11 true
November 2, 2007 at 12:43 pm
10 hmmm, well I invented the internet
November 2, 2007 at 12:47 pm
Game on in AFL …
http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/.....n_perwin_1
… Antonelli up to #6 in the lineup … Hundley @ #8 … Venable on the bench … interesting to note that Sean Thompson is the opposing pitcher.
November 2, 2007 at 12:49 pm
13 … do you think you deserve a Nobel Peace Prize?
(or perphaps an IgNobel one? http://www.improb.com/ig/
)
November 2, 2007 at 1:02 pm
15: at least a bag of cookies…
November 2, 2007 at 1:25 pm
From http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....ent/1.html
Jake gets the usual comment about adjusting for park effects, but James doesn’t give Adrian any reciprocal adjustment for park affects. You now, something along the lines of, “think what he’d do in XXX stadium”
November 2, 2007 at 2:20 pm
17 … thanks for the link … I’m a *huge* Bill James fan … he doesn’t often say things which strike me as dumb as his comment on Jake … hmmm
OT … I love how he lumps Bucs’ Tom Gorzelanny in with Jimmy Key, and Randy Jones and John Tudor … those are 3 of my favorite pitchers of all time! Tudor in particular as I rode on his underrated back for a coupla rotisserie titles in the mid-80s …
November 2, 2007 at 2:28 pm
#17: Does anyone seriously believe that Peavy is better than Johan Santana?
Anyway, James also has a team-by-team breakdown:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
He divides players into Grade A and Grade B. Here are some Grade B talents; see if you can spot the one that doesn’t belong:
Joe Mauer
Johan Santana
Ryan Howard
Chase Utley
Justin Germano
Hmmm…
November 2, 2007 at 2:37 pm
17 … a related link …
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
… a team summary … with Padres coming in at 14/30 … which seems about right … not sure how Germano ranks even with KK, KG, CY … nobody here (@ DS) seems to think Justin is in the running for a rotation spot in 2008 … do you? Eh, perhaps “in the running” is an overstatement … let’s try this … do you think JG will be in the 2008 rotation and do you think he will be better in 2008 than 2007?
November 2, 2007 at 2:41 pm
19 … no, no one thinks Jake is better than Santana, which is part of why I was surprised by how dumb this comment from James is …
re: Germano … perhaps Padres can/should trade Germano to BoSox for Ellsbury?
November 2, 2007 at 2:46 pm
“Hmmm” is right
Germano & Santana are both B’s?
November 2, 2007 at 3:04 pm
James wasn’t actually arguing that Santana wasn’t better than Peavy. He just came up with a formula for the best players considering production and age and then input the data and those were the rankings? Does anyone think Prince Fielder is the best player in baseball? I doubt it but I think it is a very interesting way to compare the players production vs. age. I like that kind of stuff but it’s easy to see how it’s flawed.
James’s comments about Peavy and Gonzalez were a bit of a let down but you know I guess I’m a little used to it now being a SD fan all my life. It always seemed to me like everyone has always dogged us and our players for as long as I remember.
November 2, 2007 at 3:30 pm
17: I agree with James’ second statement, in that just because Peavy had great numbers on the road doesn’t mean he wasn’t helped by Petco when he was at home. The first sentence is pretty ridiculous, considering: a) no one is claiming that Peavy is the best pitcher in baseball, and b) he still had the best year of any pitcher, even adjusting for park effects (see VORP). So, the hypothetical people claiming he is the best pitcher in baseball are guilty of only looking at one year, where he was the best, not failing to take into account park.
November 2, 2007 at 3:33 pm
23 … no, that’s not GY’s point … James says that Peavy is “Often cited as the best starting pitcher in baseball” … that’s what GY was reacting to … because NO ONE (at least not that I know of) thinks that Jake is better than Santana and therefore can not / will not cite Jake as “the best starting pitcher in baseball”.
re: production & age … I guess factoring in age is how Germano gets to be a “B” … but he’s not *that* young … I think this is just a slip/blip in James’ data or methodology …
November 2, 2007 at 3:37 pm
#25: Bingo. LM, you get a gold star.
November 2, 2007 at 3:49 pm
25. 26
Sorry GY my bad.
Yeah I have no idea who James has heard Peavy is the best in the bigs from but nothing that I have seen published anywhere.
November 2, 2007 at 4:24 pm
#27: No worries, bud; such is the nature of communicating via Internet.
November 2, 2007 at 4:57 pm
19: James seems to be losing a step or two with age
November 2, 2007 at 5:39 pm
Thanks for the mention Jeff. Watch for more from Ray Lankford and I, including some detail on the name TheSacrificeBunt.
November 2, 2007 at 5:40 pm
I mean Geoff!! Ack, I’m a terrible person!
November 2, 2007 at 5:55 pm
29: That’s blasphemy.
November 2, 2007 at 10:26 pm
32 … or opportunity … to trade Germano to the BoSox
November 3, 2007 at 12:03 am
Well said.
November 3, 2007 at 4:24 am
Hey, thanks for the linkage Geoff! Game three of the Phillies/Padres series is now up:
http://blog.dereksnyder.net/20.....three.aspx
November 3, 2007 at 12:20 pm
Good article at THT.
Yup, Petco needs some speedy OF. Surprising results as well in it.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....d-defense/
Let’s trade Germano for Chase Utley.
November 3, 2007 at 1:23 pm
Dang Geoff, Rob Neyer just called you out!
Sorry, it is ESPN Insider only.
November 3, 2007 at 2:49 pm
#37: Cool. Now you’ve got me curious…
November 3, 2007 at 5:50 pm
Do you have insider, Geoff?
November 3, 2007 at 5:55 pm
I’m 99 percent sure Neyer was being sarcastic, making fun of conventional sportswriters who think they have all the answers.
November 3, 2007 at 6:30 pm
#39: Nope, and you guys are driving me crazy. What the heck did he say?
November 3, 2007 at 6:38 pm
Major beatdown!!
• One of the biggest disappointments in 2007 was Cleveland’s Josh Barfield. Geoff Young asks what happened,” but admits up front, “I’m not going to answer the question.” Geoff, Geoff, Geoff … Don’t you know the No. 1 Rule of Sportswriting is to come up with an answer, whether you believe it or not? Anyway, Barfield isn’t Geoff’s problem. He’s the Indians’ problem, as they get to spend the winter figuring out if they can rely on him next season or not.
November 3, 2007 at 7:21 pm
#42: Thanks. That is solid. Given Neyer’s body of work, I would tend to agree with Kevin’s interpretation.
November 4, 2007 at 7:32 am
A look at what the Denver Post has to say about the Padres:
“San Diego Padres: If the Padres ever hit, they would be the Red Sox. OK, that’s a stretch. But this team is only a couple of bats away from excellence. That’s why you will hear them connected to Jones, Geoff Jenkins, Aaron Rowand and Torii Hunter. Second base also is a void, and that’s where they will make a play for Tadahito Iguchi or possibly Kazuo Matsui.”
http://www.denverpost.com/ci_7364220
November 4, 2007 at 7:43 am
#44: Interesting. The U-T reports that the Pads will try to fill the CF position via trade, which makes sense given the FA market.
The article mentions a guy I’ve been looking at very closely in my own evaluations, KC’s David DeJesus. I think he would be a fantastic fit for Petco.
November 4, 2007 at 8:05 am
from the above link……new pitchers for 2008…….Matt Clement, Mark Prior, Curt Schilling…..I’d take those guys. I’d take those guys even though they’re either old or injury prone. I bet Petco would make them look like the stars they were.
November 4, 2007 at 1:34 pm
45: Lots of rumors in that article. I love the idea of Jenkins in left with Hairston, he can play defense and (I think) he’s a line drive hitter.
The Eckstein rumor sounds like a writer’s idle fantasy but I’d love him at 2B if the price is reasonable. I’m not worried about him blocking Antonelli because its possible we trade Khalil within a year and Eckstein can slide over to short.
I like that KT is lookng for a couple of starting pitchers. That indicates they’re not content to run Germano and Tomko out there 35 times a year. Schilling might actually be the best deal out there, a one year deal at $15 million with an option is probably better value than a guy like Silva at 4/40M. Plus we need an active player to start posting at Ducksnorts and Schilling is the most likely candidate.
It’s good to hear that KT knows what we need and almost sounds excited about the challenge of finding another GM he can rip off in a trade. Hopefully we’ll see some moves soon so we can all have someting new to talk about.
November 4, 2007 at 1:40 pm
#47 Trade Khalil in a year and move Ekstein to short ? Let’s hope this never becomes the plan.
November 4, 2007 at 1:55 pm
why not?
Pie, eckstein, antonelli sounds better to me than greene, antonelli, stopgap
November 4, 2007 at 2:26 pm
49: You expect Eckstein to be a viable SS in 2009?
November 4, 2007 at 2:30 pm
Eckstein will be 34 years old in 2009.
November 4, 2007 at 2:38 pm
no thanks to eckstein at short
November 4, 2007 at 2:41 pm
and the UT was really scaring me with kendall as the backup catcher, i meant to put that in the prev post.
hopefully no arbitration to barrett, that would be a mess and i really like the ideas they had for CF. i also have no problem with jenkins splittin time with hairston as long as hes not really that expensive.
i dont want prior, but i’d take a shot with clement. and i LOVE the Josh towers idea. i really think he’d thrive here.
November 4, 2007 at 2:44 pm
The continual desire of some to move Khalil perplexes me. Imagine the offensive upside with Khalil Greene. 44 doubles -27 home runs and 97 rbi’s (albeit a ton of strikeouts) and he may still improve !
Defensively he is one of baseball’s best.
November 4, 2007 at 3:02 pm
53: on the radio (XX w/ Philly Billy & Darin) KT said they might try to work something out w/ Barret so they can offer him Arb. where he will not accept it.
November 4, 2007 at 3:14 pm
50: I don’t think Eckstein is a viable option at short right now, just saying that’s a possible fallback plan to keep 2B open for Antonelli.
54: I don’t want them to move Khalil but he will be moved at some point, unless they can come to terms with some sort of reasonable long term deal. If I was in Khalil’s position I’d be looking to go to a more favorable home park, Petco hurts him more than any other Padre (.280/.335/.515 on the road for his career). Unless he just loves San Diego he’d be crazy to sign a long term deal to stay here.
55: Isn’t that technically against the rules? I’m sure it happens all the time but I seem to remember you can’t do that.
November 4, 2007 at 3:22 pm
In Sunday’s UT, Fuson floated the idea of Antonelli playing CF.
“Grady Fuson said Double-A star Matt Antonelli should be ready to help as a second baseman/leadoff man in 2008, but if he doesn’t cut it there, his speed could allow him to move to center field. ”
I believe that has allready been mentioned here.
November 4, 2007 at 3:31 pm
#56 Understood. His next contract could be huge if he has a big year in 2008. Let’s hope that he has a huge year and the Pads win the pennant so that the organization’s hands will be tied and are obligated to sign him.
November 4, 2007 at 4:57 pm
17. & all the other Peavy posts: I read the Bill James piece as well, and it kind of struck me as uninformed. I did a little statistical looking and found that even using park adjusted numbers Peavy is the best pitcher in baseball. I just started a Pads blog of my own, and there’s a little more detail over there. Check it out if you are interested:
http://322feet.wordpress.com/
November 4, 2007 at 5:00 pm
OT - When was the last time “the highest paid player” was on the WS champ? Seems like I’ve read that it’s been a long time …
So, here’s my bold prediction … if the Dogs or the Angels sign A-Rod, they will win the 2008 WS … mark the tape … you heard it here first.
I’m not happy about it … this is more coming from a perspective of “I hope I’m wrong and I hope that by saying it this foolishly it will be wrong” … it just occured to me that both of those teams are close enough to having a team that can make it to the playoffs that A-Rod almost certainly will put them over the top … and then the law of averages says that he’s bound to have a dominating post-season one of these years, so why not 2008?
I hope that the Padres + Rox + D-backs again make the Dogs non-factors in September … and I think all three teams have the talent to do just that … especially if they don’t sign A-Rod … but I think that Boras sees that the Angels and Dogs will be bidding against each other to get A-Rod to his “market value” … and that, at least in the early years of this contract, he will indeed be “worth it” because he will be pushing a team from the edge of the playoffs solidly into the playoffs (as he’s done with the Yankees, especially this past season).
November 4, 2007 at 5:10 pm
59 … Nice job, BryanS … I like the blog name … and I like your first entry … keep it up!
Two comments … I’m not going to judge “the best pitcher in baseball” on just the stats from 1 season … look back 3-5 years rather than just at 2007 … for my money, Santana clearly holds the title of “the best pitcher in baseball”, yet he didn’t get a mention in you blog … also, while James’ comment about Peavy is what raised the question of “the best pitcher in baseball”, his relatively-low ranking of Peavy was done in the spirit of “Ranking baseball’s top 50 up-and-coming stars”, and Jake is hardly “up-and-coming” … ie. Jake’s getting ding’d for his age (26) more than his talent/results …
November 4, 2007 at 5:13 pm
47: If Schilling posts here, I will not again. If he plays for the Padres, it will be hard to be a fan of them.
60: How are the Dodges close? Not with Torre and their penchant for playing stop-gap veterans over their young talent and Torre’s penchant for doing the same.
November 4, 2007 at 5:22 pm
James is evaluating “Young Talent” — a combination of age and proven results.
November 4, 2007 at 5:43 pm
61. Thanks for the feedback. Still getting the hang of this thing…thought about Santana, probably should have dug a little deeper into the numbers in retrospect. He’s definitely up there but since he had an off year he wasn’t showing up in the upper portion of some of the stats I used…might update that tomorrow if I get a chance…anyway, thanks for stopping by!
60&62. I don’t trust Colletti to do the smart thing and hold onto the young talent they have.
He’s just like Sabean, his mentor, in that he likes to buy high on veterans just as they begin to decline (see Furcal, Pierre, Schmidt et al.) instead of playing the kids that can get them to the next level. Now, with Torre, the pressure is on to build a club that can win now instead of building to contend for the next 3-4 years. I think Colletti will try to bring A-Rod on, then trade at least 1 of their big 3 prospects (Loney, Kemp, Billingsley; I don’t think they will deal Martin since he has already proven himself to a point) to bring in veterans under the guise of “We can’t afford to give these guys playing time to grow since we’re so committed to winning.” That penchant for playing the older guys will be their downfall, if the fates are on our side :).
November 4, 2007 at 6:05 pm
Bryan, I too like the creative name & first post… I wanted to add some discussion to one of your comments:
“Even taking into consideration the fact that Jake came up small in the two biggest games of the year…”
Obviously the concluding game against Colorado was 1, what was the other one, BoSox game against Becket, the 3-game rest game against the D’Backs, another?
Against Colorado, I can’t help but wonder how the game would have looked with Cameron in CF… Against Boston he actually pitched well. He gave up 9 hits, but several were broken-bat types, or bloop-hits where the batter was fooled but still made contact and only hit was an XBH (3B by Varitek). Against Arizona, he was on short rest - dismiss it…
I don’t think we can completely let Jake off the hook, but the next time he has a big game on normal rest with his normal defense behind him, I bet he shines.
November 4, 2007 at 6:06 pm
Anthony (56), if so, I don’t think KT would have said something on the air about it… It would make sense that it should be against the rules, but it’s probably the Padres (and soon other teams as well) taking advantage of a loophole…
November 4, 2007 at 6:14 pm
55,56,66: I don’t know anything about it being against the rules, but it would be really dumb of Barrett to agree to that because it would diminish his value by so much. Last year the Padres apparently had agreements with Klesko and Park not to accept, but since they were type B free agents, and the team signing them didn’t have to give up a pick, it didn’t make a difference to their value.
November 4, 2007 at 6:15 pm
Baseball Analysts have a nice (favorable) review of Geoff Jenkins…
http://baseballanalysts.com/ar.....r_free.php
Geoff Jenkins was linked to us by the UT this AM…
November 4, 2007 at 6:20 pm
65. Thanks Peter. The other one I thought of was Arizona on 3 days rest. I put that more on Black and his staff than Jake, but a lot of people I’ve talked to pin it on Jake for “not being a gamer.” B.S. The Boston game was big too; as you mentioned, his line was not bad. I was at that game, and it seemed to me like he got too amped up, as he does every now and then, and never really found a rhythm (111 pitches over 5 innings in spite of just 1 walk and 3 K’s). The Colorado game was an anomaly, but then again he showed some of the same signs of…I don’t think nervousness is the right word, but he definitely was unsettled early on. It seems like a trend for him in big spots to get too hyper and lose control of himself; however, there were several spots this year where he really seemed like he was learning how to manage himself a little better throughout the game. He could come up huge his next time out in a big spot (here’s hoping he does), or he could implode; given his stuff and his history, I don’t think either result would surprise me at this point.
In any case, still a killer year for him, in spite of the recent unpleasantness.
November 5, 2007 at 8:09 am
I dont see the Padres going after Schilling unless they expand thier payroll or fill all of thier other needs (CF, LF, 2B, C) with trades for pre-arbitration guys.
I also would not mind if the Padres got Kendall to back up Bard, If they signed him to be a back up catcher im sure it would be for low money and only one year, whats the risk in that?
November 5, 2007 at 8:19 am
Running late this morning. Will have something up by 8:30 a.m. PT.
November 5, 2007 at 8:28 am
70 … the risk in signing Kendall is that every AB he gets results in an out and every baserunner that gets on advances via the SB … not likely … but that’s the risk … he seems to be much worse of a player than Barrett … heck, I’ll bet he’s worse than Colt Morton and Luke Carlin …
November 5, 2007 at 8:34 am
Funny that we were talking about Kendall exactly three years ago:
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/200.....t-die.html
Worse than Carlin? Ouch. Carlin hit .220/.326/.300 as a 26-year-old in the PCL. That’s pretty brutal.
November 5, 2007 at 10:36 am
73 … I notice no one’s mentioned Kendall’s number … here’s what he did before the A’s unloaded him … .226 .261 .281 … in 292 brutal & wasted ABs … that is in the big leagues, whereas Carlin’s feeble numbers are AAA … but I think Carlin has a defensive advantage … I may be wrong …
November 9, 2007 at 9:27 am
#37, 40: Just to close the loop, I ran into Neyer yesterday at BlogWorld. Not surprisingly, he confirmed Kevin’s take.