Heaven or Mat Latos

Five wins in a row. A share of first place. Sweet? No, spicy; vaguely like doner kebab.

Some days you get only one hit. Some days, that’s all you need. On Tuesday, against the Giants, it was enough.

Ladies and gentlemen, break up the Padres. (Oops, shouldn’t say that out loud… it could happen, you know.)

Mat Latos pitched a terrific game. Only two strikeouts (back-to-back to end the fifth), but did you notice all the ground balls? All 13 of them? Yummy. Continue reading ›

Me, Elsewhere: Early-Season Surprises

While I’m working on the recap of Tuesday’s victory, here’s a little something to keep you busy: My latest Hardball Times article looks at some of the more unexpected performances over the first two weeks of 2010. There’s no real Padres connection, although former Friars Rickey Henderson, Miguel Olivo, Tony Clark, David Ross, Russell Branyan, Milton Bradley, Henri Stanley, and Jon Knott all make cameos.

Enjoy!

Bobblehead Goes Yard, Padres Move into Second

How predictable. The Padres win Monday night on a walk-off homer from David Eckstein. Yawn. Wake me when something exciting happens.

Wait, that David Eckstein? Those Padres? Continue reading ›

That’s One Way to Lower Your ERA

I mentioned that in Friday night’s victory over Arizona, third baseman Chase Headley committed two errors but was charged with only one. The U-T’s Tim Sullivan informs us that official scorer Bill Zavestoski later reversed course.

According to Sullivan, Padres media relations manager Bret Picciolo, manager Bud Black, and pitching coach Darren Balsley all spoke with Zavestoski about his initial ruling. End result: Give Headley one more error and starter Jon Garland three fewer earned runs.

Another U-T article, by Bill Center, quotes Black as saying of Garland, “Jon is a little more deliberate than a lot of pitchers.” Center notes that “Garland’s slow pace could have played a role in the two errors committed by Headley Friday night.”

With Zavestoski’s scoring change, Padres pitchers have now allowed 10 unearned runs so far in 2010. Of those, seven have come on Garland’s watch.

I have a feeling we’re going to see this a lot behind Garland. I would prefer he keep his ERA down by getting actual outs, which would help the team more than having the official scorer penalize infielders for taking a nap between pitches (maybe MLB could use that time to sell more television advertising), but whatever.

Brooms, Cliches… It’s All Good

Another day, another thrashing of the Diamondbacks bullpen. I’m going to miss those guys. Here’s how the Padres won their weekend series against Arizona:

Starters
      IP  H R ER HR BB  K
SD  15.2  8 3  0  0 10 17
SD  15.2  8 4  1  0 10 17
Ari 17.0 11 2  2  1 11 11

Relievers
     IP   H  R ER HR BB  K
SD  11.1  4  2  2  1  0 14
Ari  7.2 12 14 13  2  9  4

As I said, I’m going to miss Arizona’s relief corps(e).

Wade LeBlanc started in place of the injured Chris Young on Sunday and pitched reasonably well. It’d be nice to see a starter make it through the sixth every now and then, but that’s hard to do when you work deep counts. LeBlanc faced 22 batters in his first big-league start of the season and went to three balls on nine of them, which is irritating.

Still, he finished with seven strikeouts. I know a lot of people don’t believe in LeBlanc, and I get that. The guy throws a ton of slop, but to my way of thinking, anyone who can put an 89-mph fastball past Justin Upton (as LeBlanc did to end his outing) has a chance.

Random thoughts from the game:

  • Will Venable appears to be scuffling. Someone should check the data, but anecdotally it seems he hasn’t seen many fastballs since nearly hitting for the cycle in the home opener. Ian Kennedy had him lunging at off-speed stuff on Sunday. Venable seems like someone who is capable of making adjustments. Now would be a good time for him to do so.
  • Kyle Blanks also hasn’t done much since last Monday, but one thing he has done is tighten his strike zone. He’s walked in four straight games, drawing six in that span against two strikeouts. Small sample, of course, but good to see.
  • Can Scott Hairston hit a fastball up in his eyes, or what? Yes, yes he can. It was kind of cool to see his brother hit a ball in nearly the same spot four batters later to tie the game.
  • Rita Mae Brown’s definition of insanity (often attributed to Albert Einstein) is “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” For the second time in less than 24 hours, with the game on the line, Arizona’s Juan Gutierrez walked Adrian Gonzalez intentionally to get to Chase Headley. As on Saturday, the result was three runs and a Padres victory.
  • Speaking of Headley, and again bearing in mind the sample size, have you noticed that he isn’t striking out this year? Anything can happen in 52 plate appearances, but five strikeouts is nice. No, strikeouts aren’t evil; still, if there’s been one chink in Headley’s armor from an offensive standpoint, it’s an inability to make consistent contact. I continue to have a good feeling, supported by very little beyond intuition, about Headley in 2010.

That’s all for now. More as it happens…

Change Is Good, and So Is Winning

We made it to our first game of 2010 on Saturday night. I was prepared to hate the new 5:35 start time, but it turns out I didn’t. We had to rearrange our eating schedule, although that worked out well, as it resulted in a Lolita’s carne asada burrito after the game.

Speaking of change, the Padres are doing a few new things at the ballpark. First, they’re making the game-day program available for free. Former North County Times reporter and current Padres publications manager Shaun O’Neill notes in his introduction to the inaugural issue of Padres Blueprint that “the size is smaller, by design,” explaining that “a playbill-style format should make it easier to read from a ballpark seat.” It comes with a scorecard and basically rocks.

GY, should I use a gel pen to keep score on the scorecard?

Not unless you want ink all over yourself, in which case you’re probably better off splurging on a classy tattoo.

Another change is that the Padres have added OPS to the scoreboard, which means I no longer have to calculate it in my head. Oh, and if you think OPS is totally mainstream now, consider this: In my section, several folks who probably have been watching baseball longer than I’ve been alive engaged in a lengthy debate regarding the acronym’s meaning. A teen-aged boy in their midst correctly identified it as on-base-plus-slugging-percentage but was ignored by the adults, who preferred “overall percentage scored” and settled on that. I should have told them the kid was right, but I am shy with strangers and besides, their “explanation” made me smile.

The giveaway on Saturday was a David Eckstein bobblehead. It looks exactly like the real thing, only slightly larger. The Sacrifice Bunt has offered to trade me his but I’ve already got one and it’s very nice.

As for the game, is it poor form to complain about a 5-0 victory? Yes, we are all agreed that it is poor form. Very well, let the complaining begin.

I know it’s early, but the Padres need to improve their approach at the plate with the bases loaded. After repeatedly letting Tim Hudson and Edwin Jackson off the hook in previous games, they did the same with Kris Benson (!) on Saturday.

  • First inning, no out: Chase Headley grounds into a 4-6-3 double play on the first pitch; Padres score one run
  • Second inning, two out: David Eckstein grounds an 0-1 pitch to shortstop; no runs
  • Fifth inning, two out: Scott Hairston pops a 2-0 pitch to shortstop; no runs

Finally, in the seventh, against the always-generous Arizona bullpen, Hairston walked, forcing home Adrian Gonzalez. The next batter, Nick Hundley, blooped a single just over second baseman Kelly Johnson’s head to drive home Headley and Kyle Blanks. (Hundley earlier homered to left off Benson, feasting on one of the fattest curve balls you’ll ever see.)

Okay, enough whining. To the good stuff:

  • Despite battling a cold, Kevin Correia pitched well. He could have been more efficient (105 pitches in 5.2 IP), but he struck out the side in the third and fourth innings, so we’ll cut him some slack.
  • The hitters drew seven walks. Granted, they received an assist from left-hander Jordan Norberto, who had zero command of his fastball, but it’s good to see the kids make Arizona’s pitchers work so hard.
  • The bullpen looked great again. Luke Gregerson’s slider was biting and Mike Adams rebounded from his Thursday meltdown, retiring the side in order in the eighth on a grounder to third and two called strikeouts.
  • Jerry Hairston Jr. has played well when given the opportunity. He made a few nice plays at second base in the Atlanta series and a few more on Saturday in his first start at shortstop with the Padres. He saved his best for last, bare-handing a ball that deflected off the glove of a diving Headley and throwing out a speedy Chris Young to seal the victory and the shutout.

Now go away, or I shall taunt you a second time.

Chasin’ the Snakes Away

Getting a late start on a lazy Saturday. I wasn’t planning to write today, but how can I not say a few words about the season’s best game so far?

It didn’t start out that way. Most of the night was an exercise in frustration. As Tim Hudson did on Thursday, Edwin Jackson had trouble throwing strikes. As they did with Hudson, the Padres had trouble making Jackson pay for his mistakes. They either helped him out by swinging at bad pitches (in their defense, his slider was biting hard) or got victimized by some fantastic glovework.

On the flip side, Jon Garland… I need to start recording his starts. Sometimes I have trouble falling asleep at night and nothing seems to help. I’m pretty sure a few innings (or even batters) of Garland would do the trick.

I’m nitpicking here, but I would like to see Garland add “throw the damn ball” to his repertoire. I imagine the guys collecting dust behind him might feel the same way… assuming they feel anything after standing around for so long.

Chase Headley, who had a rough 8 2/3 innings, committed two errors. One was changed to a base hit. It was a tough play to his backhand side, but makeable. He had the ball, then lost a game of patty-cake to it.

On the other error, in the fifth, left fielder Kyle Blanks made a nice play backing up Headley and nailed batter Justin Upton trying to take second. An inning earlier, Blanks nailed Conor Jackson at second on a drive to left-center. Blanks cut the ball off while moving to his left, spun, and fired a strike to David Eckstein, who applied the tag and held it as Jackson tumbled past the bag.

At some point, other teams will stop being surprised by Blanks’ athleticism. Until then, they’ll keep doing stupid stuff to make him prove it, which is fine.

Blanks also had some solid plate appearances, lashing a single to right in the second and a double to left-center in the seventh that skipped past a startled Gerardo Parra, who may not have expected the ball to be hit so hard. Blanks’ best work, though, came in the eighth, when he spat on a tough 3-2 pitch from Aaron Heilman with the bases loaded to cut Arizona’s lead to 3-2.

Meanwhile, the Padres bullpen did a stellar job (4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 5 K). So did the Diamondbacks bullpen (2.2 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 1 K)… if you’re a Padres fan. Those guys were brutal.

On the heels of Bobby Howry and Heilman, who lit the match, came “closer” Juan Gutierrez (you may recall him from that insane game last June 7) with his gas can. Gutierrez opened the ninth by walking Nick “I Will Flail at Breaking Balls Down and Away if You Just Give Me a Chance” Hundley after jumping ahead in the count, 0-2. Pinch-hitter Jerry Hairston Jr. followed with a sacrifice bunt.

After Gutierrez got Everth Cabrera to chase the slider Hundley should have seen, Eckstein whacked the next pitch just beyond the outstretched glove of Parra for a game-tying double. As I tweeted (excuse me!), grit happens.

Somewhere, a stathead lost its wings.

Then, as Padres fans saw all too often in 2009, Adrian Gonzalez was intentionally walked, bringing up Headley. As Padres fans didn’t see often enough last year, the man behind Gonzalez made the opposition pay, swatting a 1-1 fastball deep into the right-field seats to end the game.

Headley admired his shot a bit and threw the bat. He may get plunked for that public display of ass-whooping, but it was for a worthy cause.

The only downside of this victory is that it left me wired. Fortunately I was able to fall asleep, although worst case, I could have watched the rebroadcast of Garland’s first inning. I’m certain that would have put me out cold.

Friday Links (16 Apr 10)

This week’s links are proudly sponsored by coffee. Give yourself a present

Uno

  • Oh, To Be A Padre In August ’80 (Baseball-Reference). Steve Lombardi notes that the Padres played three games of 17 innings or more within a 12-day stretch back in 1980. Yikes.
  • Bill James for Nobel (Sabermetric Research). This article from Phil Birnbaum is way old but still relevant. I think behavioral economics has applications within the baseball analytic community, I’m just not sure what those applications might be. The way in which a team markets itself to fans is one possibility. The role “expert” projections play in fantasy valuation could be another. Seems like there’s a lot of untapped potential in this area.
  • Moneyball: KC Style (Joe Posnanski). Pos talks about Earnshaw Cook, who came before Bill James and whose revolutionary ideas never gained the widespread acceptance that James’ ultimately did. [h/t reader Didi]
  • MadFriars.com Review: The Bullpen Gospels (MadFriars). John Conniff reviews Dirk Hayhurst’s book: “Bullpen Gospels will provide any hard-core baseball fan with more than enough depictions of Bull Durham type moments from the fetid locker rooms and juvenile bus trips to a hilarious bullpen insult session with redneck fans in Midland, Texas.”
  • Padres Fans Should Relish New Owner and His Commitment to Fans (The Friarhood). Scott Gulbransen talks about renewed hope: “Moorad and his staff have pushed the reset button and are already turning heads with a more fan-friendly approach built on solid core business principles. This was vital – even more than the product on the field – in order to regain public trust and convince fans to come back.” The people of San Diego never really embraced those winning teams of 2004-2007. Maybe they will embrace lower beer prices.
  • Nuts and Bolts of hitting in the big leagues with Morgan Ensberg (Hardball Times). Matt Lentzner interviews the former Padres third baseman: “I saw dots on sliders all the time. I could see seams tumble on changes. We see everything.”

Continue reading ›

People Showed Up to Game 2; I Wasn’t One of Them

Thank goodness for the day off on Tuesday. The season is a grind, and sometimes you just need a break. I don’t know about you, but after a week’s worth of games on the road and one grueling home date, I was ready to get my mind off baseball… if only for a little while. Thank you, oh wise schedulers, for accommodating all of us.

We got bored and restless without a game. Some of us rambled on about process, others picked apart articles of questionable merit, while still others pondered the state of the Padres blogosphere.

Hey, is that lint in my belly button?

Meanwhile, in all the excitement, I missed Wednesday night’s 6-1 loss to the Braves. Well, I wouldn’t say I missed it, Bob. But I did forget to DVR it, and then life happened.

I can’t comment on the game itself, but one thing I’m keeping an eye on this season is attendance. I’m curious to see how fans respond to new ownership’s words and actions. Opening Day doesn’t really count because everyone goes to that whether they like baseball or not:

“Did you see me on TV? I had lint in my belly button. Woo-hoo, I was on TV!”

Game 2 is what separates the fans from the woo-hoos. Very well, then, here is Game 2 in the Petco Park era:

Year Day Opp    Att
2004 Sat  SF 41,625
2005 Fri Pit 39,791
2006 Wed  SF 23,721
2007 Sat Col 40,504
2008 Tue Hou 20,825
2009 Tue  LA 20,035
2010 Wed Atl 24,969

Not much to go on, but that’s got to be encouraging. I can’t believe the attendance against the Dodgers in Game 2 last year. What, folks from LA had better things to do than drive down and take over our ballpark?

Anyway, we’ll keep watching.

* * *

On a completely unrelated note, thanks to the magic of the Internet, I did catch most of the Dayton/Fort Wayne game on radio. Brings back fond memories of the time I listened to Jake Peavy and Mark Prior battle in the Southern League.

I took only mental notes this time. Heard Everett Williams notch his first hit in full-season ball, a first-inning double down the left-field line. The announcers praised Rymer Liriano, who took the collar on Wednesday but who has made a favorable impression.

They also had kind words for starter Jerry Sullivan, who pitched a mostly beautiful game and who apparently featured a nasty, sharp-breaking slider. Sullivan’s final line (6 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 7 K) doesn’t look great, but neither does it tell the whole story.

Sullivan allowed a leadoff double to Didi Gregorius (another name I want to see in the big leagues) before retiring the next 18 batters he faced. Then came the seventh inning (which Peter recounts in his daily rundown of the Padres farm system that you should be reading): single, single, single, slam. You’d like to see a guy finish strong (hello, Adam Eaton), but I’ll take six innings of dominance.

* * *

Back in the big leagues, the Padres and Braves wrap up their three-game series on Thursday. Mat Latos faces Tim Hudson. The game starts at 3:35 p.m. PT, which is when “day” games now start at Petco Park. I’d better go set my DVR.

Does This Air Make My Head Look Fat?

Part of my publishing process involves reading aloud what I’ve written. The earth’s atmosphere has an unflattering effect on words, and it’s good to identify and correct any issues before inviting others to partake.

This is a simple matter of courtesy. You are busy and could be doing many other things (grass needs-a-growin’, paint needs-a-dryin’) with the five minutes of your life that you’ve chosen to spend reading my words. The very least I can do is try not to deliver a steaming pile of crap.

I usually make my wife listen. Well, I don’t make her do anything, but I ask and she assents. (We’ve been married a long time, and any fantasies she may have harbored about me “buying her nice things” disappeared long ago, replaced by a resigned, “Okay, fine, tell me your story.”)

Mrs. Ducksnorts is a Dickens scholar and a former technical editor who has an excellent ear for language. She knows when things aren’t working. And, as I said, we’ve been married a long time, so she isn’t shy about telling me. In fact, I suspect she may even derive a teensy bit of pleasure from letting me know when something stinks.

(On the flip side, she occasionally laughs, which always makes my day. Husbands, as a species, are not nearly as funny as they think they are; sometimes, eliciting a brief chuckle is the closest you come to victory.)

She also pays attention to details and will catch factual errors. In Tuesday’s piece, for example, I mentioned my frustration at watching Kevin Correia nibble with a big lead. I’d wanted to include something Nick Hundley did during the game to drive home the point, but… well, here is the passage that ran:

My only real complaint is with Kevin Correia’s nibbling. How do you walk Martin Prado in the third after jumping ahead in the count, 0-2, with Chipper Jones on deck? Then again, Correia drove in as many runs as he allowed, so we’ll cut him some slack.

And here is the sentence that originally followed it before being left on the cutting room floor:

Still, it’s worth noting that catcher Nick Hundley got a little irritated, too, at one point pounding the baseball to his chest before returning it to Correia, as if to say, “Throw the ball to me!”

By the time those words hit the air, Mrs. Ducksnorts knew something was wrong. “Wait,” she said, “that wasn’t Correia, that was Mujica.”

Was it Mujica? I replayed the incident in my head (controls are easier to work than the DVR), and yes, the pitcher in question was Edward Mujica.

So I removed the offending passage, thus saving myself the embarrassment of having published something that wasn’t true. And now I’ve told you about it, thus sabotaging my own effort to avoid embarrassment.

Mrs. Ducksnorts is listening. She’s not laughing, but neither is she cringing. I think we’re good to go.